2022-2023 Magic Trade and Free Agency Idea Thread III

[SOUL]

I think there's a bit of nuance lost in that though In terms of percentages stuff because if you show like "who has higher rebounds, less turnovers, etc" then I'm sure there are also stats that show it overwhelmingly to one side. Don't get me wrong, you definitely need shooters and spacing, that's a given in the new NBA - good shooting will most likely get you a win.

But top 10 in the NBA in 3PT% you had Clippers 3rd (out first round), Warriors (out second round), Brooklyn (to be fair, mostly before the trades, but swept first round), Dallas (out of playoffs), Bucks (out first round), Indiana (out of playoffs), and Portland at 11th (out of playoffs), which were relative failures (in expectation) compared to Denver, Philly, Boston, Phoenix.

Bottom 10 in the NBA in 3PT% you had Atlanta (out first round), Miami (in finals), Lakers (out in WCF finals), Memphis (out first round), New York (out 2nd round), Toronto (out in playins).

So it's not like these bottom 10 teams were all lottery. Half of them made the playoffs, but you also don't willingly want to handicap yourself with bad shooting. They also may have shot more threes in some cases, even if badly, but the fact that 3 >2 is just a thing coaches have to figure out how to stop or benefit from.

TLDR: Shooting obviously helps, but you can only play with the personnel around you and you can still make noise without great shooting percentages. The NBA the past 5-8 years had every team playing like they were the Warriors without having any of the personnel of the Warriors and wondering why they were not doing much. Timely shooting seems to be very important, imo, which the Heat have benefited from this playoffs.

[eyriq]

I think there's a bit of nuance lost in that though In terms of percentages stuff because if you show like "who has higher rebounds, less turnovers, etc" then I'm sure there are also stats that show it overwhelmingly to one side. Don't get me wrong, you definitely need shooters and spacing, that's a given in the new NBA - good shooting will most likely get you a win.

But top 10 in the NBA in 3PT% you had Clippers 3rd (out first round), Warriors (out second round), Brooklyn (to be fair, mostly before the trades, but swept first round), Dallas (out of playoffs), Bucks (out first round), Indiana (out of playoffs), and Portland at 11th (out of playoffs), which were relative failures (in expectation) compared to Denver, Philly, Boston, Phoenix.

Bottom 10 in the NBA in 3PT% you had Atlanta (out first round), Miami (in finals), Lakers (out in WCF finals), Memphis (out first round), New York (out 2nd round), Toronto (out in playins).

So it's not like these bottom 10 teams were all lottery. Half of them made the playoffs, but you also don't willingly want to handicap yourself with bad shooting. They also may have shot more threes in some cases, even if badly, but the fact that 3 >2 is just a thing coaches have to figure out how to stop or benefit from.

TLDR: Shooting obviously helps, but you can only play with the personnel around you and you can still make noise without great shooting percentages. The NBA the past 5-8 years had every team playing like they were the Warriors without having any of the personnel of the Warriors and wondering why they were not doing much. Timely shooting seems to be very important, imo, which the Heat have benefited from this playoffs.

Yeah, there's definitely some nuance there.

For a surface level view I was looking at box score data from this season and summarized each team's performance in various statistics. Did a team outperform their opponent in rebounds? Did they outperform them in assists? How often? Then across all the teams we can calculate the correlation of each statistic with their performance in points. The correlations are below. It would be interesting to model this at the game by game level but I was more interested in team level characteristics when I ran this.

Field goal volume and efficiency stand out, which is expected. Blocks are third. Fourth is 3 point efficiency, with assists and rebounds right below.

Field Goal Percentage Difference: 0.74
Field Goals Made Difference: 0.65
Blocks Difference: 0.62
Three-Point Field Goal Percentage Difference: 0.56
Assists Difference: 0.53
Defensive Rebounds Difference: 0.52
Three-Point Field Goals Made Difference: 0.46
Steals Difference: 0.36
Total Rebounds Difference: 0.33
Free Throws Made Difference: 0.30
Turnovers Difference: 0.28
Free Throw Percentage Difference: 0.27
Three-Point Field Goal Attempts Difference: 0.26
Personal Fouls Difference: 0.17
Free Throw Attempts Difference: 0.14
Offensive Rebounds Difference: 0.01
Field Goal Attempts Difference: -0.12

[pepe1991]

League's average 3FGA is 34,2.
League's average 3% is 36,1%


Magic fell behind in both categories, 31 three point attemps ( 27th in nba) and 34,6% in accuracy (24th)

In current day and age where 3 point attemps make 39% of all shots, it's much easier to have good offense if you can make high volumen of 3s above average. Even when some teams don't take high volumen 3s, they scare off teams into thinking that they will killed them off with 3 point shot so it creates lot of open lines. Suns before all the trades and injuries are good example of it, so were Hawks year prior).

Nuggets and Heat were not big on volumen of 3 point shots, but their efficiency was good during regular season, and once this season is over, both finalists will be 1# and 2# in 3 point accuracy in playoffs.


What you can't be in modern era is both: low volumen, crappy accuracy 3 point shooting team.

[drsd]

Trust in Suggs to take the leap as the starting 2. That will take a lot of offensive improvement however.
Or have Franz play some minutes at the 2. But would prefer not to do this.

I have to assume that Orlando will release G-Harris. And in that, what you propose above is a default outcome of no-movement.

I would not be surprised if this is the depth chart on opening night.

Fultz/Anthony/some-dude
Suggs/Dick/Houstan
F-Wagner/Bol/Okeke
Banchero/Isaac/Hendricks
Carter/Bitadze/M-Wagner


Would anyone else here be "shocked" to see this roster (this is not a "happiness" question)?

..

[drsd]

League's average 3FGA is 34,2.
League's average 3% is 36,1%


Magic fell behind in both categories, 31 three point attemps ( 27th in nba) and 34,6% in accuracy (24th)

In current day and age where 3 point attemps make 39% of all shots, it's much easier to have good offense if you can make high volumen of 3s above average. Even when some teams don't take high volumen 3s, they scare off teams into thinking that they will killed them off with 3 point shot so it creates lot of open lines. Suns before all the trades and injuries are good example of it, so were Hawks year prior).

Nuggets and Heat were not big on volumen of 3 point shots, but their efficiency was good during regular season, and once this season is over, both finalists will be 1# and 2# in 3 point accuracy in playoffs.


What you can't be in modern era is both: low volumen, crappy accuracy 3 point shooting team.

A counter to this would be if Orlando ramps up FTA rates to that not seen by any team in ten years.

This last year the Lakers led the league at 26.6 attempts per game. Ten years earlier the league lead was 27.9 FTAs per game. Ten years before that it was 29.0 FTAs per game.

There is a case to be made that not out Warriors'ing the league is the zag to take when teams zig. And Banchero can lead a team that massively ramps up FT attempts.

Statistically, an and-1 is worth more to a team than a made 3-ball.

Let's agree on this pepe, Orlando needs to manufacture more points. And that comes from a large efficiency increase, as well as volume increases.


EDIT: the five worst scoring teams in the league last year were: Orlando-26, Charlotte-27, Houston-28, with Detroit-29.
I see a pattern!
(( breaking the pattern, the worst scoring team in the league is currently in the NBA finals: Miami ))

[pepe1991]

League's average 3FGA is 34,2.
League's average 3% is 36,1%


Magic fell behind in both categories, 31 three point attemps ( 27th in nba) and 34,6% in accuracy (24th)

In current day and age where 3 point attemps make 39% of all shots, it's much easier to have good offense if you can make high volumen of 3s above average. Even when some teams don't take high volumen 3s, they scare off teams into thinking that they will killed them off with 3 point shot so it creates lot of open lines. Suns before all the trades and injuries are good example of it, so were Hawks year prior).

Nuggets and Heat were not big on volumen of 3 point shots, but their efficiency was good during regular season, and once this season is over, both finalists will be 1# and 2# in 3 point accuracy in playoffs.


What you can't be in modern era is both: low volumen, crappy accuracy 3 point shooting team.

A counter to this would be if Orlando ramps up FTA rates to that not seen by any team in ten years.

This last year the Lakers led the league at 26.6 attempts per game. Ten years earlier the league lead was 27.9 FTAs per game. Ten years before that it was 29.0 FTAs per game.

There is a case to be made that not out Warriors'ing the league is the zag to take when teams zig. And Banchero can lead a team that massively ramps up FT attempts.

Statistically, an and-1 is worth more to a team than a made 3-ball.

Let's agree on this pepe, Orlando needs to manufacture more points. And that comes from a large efficiency increase, as well as volume increases.


EDIT: the five worst scoring teams in the league last year were: Orlando-26, Charlotte-27, Houston-28, with Detroit-29.
I see a pattern!
(( breaking the pattern, the worst scoring team in the league is currently in the NBA finals: Miami ))

Yea but you don't need to have elite FTA drawing team to actually be elite team nor to have elite offense. Last year both finalists were top 6 worst /lowest FTA drawing teams. Nuggets this year are 7th lowest rated team in FTA. Heat are 12# worst.

FTs are very hard to rely on. You can get into playoff series where refs simply don't call fouls that you expect to be called.

Joel Embiid is good example of player who dominates regular season because refs call everything in his favor, and in playoffs they allow defense to be more phyiscal and guy this year was turnover machine because he expected "special" treatment whenever somebody touched him. Didn't get one, turned the ball over, over and over and over again.

Trae Young is another player who's regular season special treatment had spectacular backfire in playoffs once refs decided to not be his fanboys.

James Harden's career is perfect example of player expecting fouls in playoffs that aren't called

[drsd]

Yea but you don't need to have elite FTA drawing team to actually be elite team nor to have elite offense. Last year both finalists were top 6 worst /lowest FTA drawing teams. Nuggets this year are 7th lowest rated team in FTA. Heat are 12# worst.

FTs are very hard to rely on. You can get into playoff series where refs simply don't call fouls that you expect to be called.

Joel Embiid is good example of player who dominates regular season because refs call everything in his favor, and in playoffs they allow defense to be more phyiscal and guy this year was turnover machine because he expected "special" treatment whenever somebody touched him. Didn't get one, turned the ball over, over and over and over again.

Trae Young is another player who's regular season special treatment had spectacular backfire in playoffs once refs decided to not be his fanboys.

James Harden's career is perfect example of player expecting fouls in playoffs that aren't called

I am reminded by Shaq in Orlando here. Literally every time he had the ball in the low post, via the rules of the NBA, he was either fouled or fouled. But rather than having Shaq take 40-50 FTA per game/foul him out of every game early, the refs just swallowed the whistle.

It will be interesting to see if Banchero can evolve to get fouls the same way Karl Malone and Tim Duncan did. That is the only sustainable way to score with the and-1.

..

[Skybox]

Trust in Suggs to take the leap as the starting 2. That will take a lot of offensive improvement however.
Or have Franz play some minutes at the 2. But would prefer not to do this.

I have to assume that Orlando will release G-Harris. And in that, what you propose above is a default outcome of no-movement.

I would not be surprised if this is the depth chart on opening night.

Fultz/Anthony/some-dude
Suggs/Dick/Houstan
F-Wagner/Bol/Okeke
Banchero/Isaac/Hendricks
Carter/Bitadze/M-Wagner

Would anyone else here be "shocked" to see this roster (this is not a "happiness" question)?

..

If we sit on our hands in FA/trade market, there’s no reason not to re-up Harris’ option. I’d only let him go if we had better use for his money…even just as a useful trade chip, not to mention a legit, proven shooter. I’d be happy to move on from him, but there needs to be a reason.

[Skybox]

It's exciting to wake up and see a lot of ORL trades in the "Trades & Transactions" threads...until you read them

Let's just go...
- Simons and #23(take Whitehead or Podzmieski) for #6 and cap space

-#11 to UTA for Agbaji and #16 (take Lively)

-take Trayce Jackson-Davis with #36 from IND (or whoever drops)

new backcourt overnight...now, who needs a PG?
-Cole Anthony to WAS for Corey Kispert
-Fultz and Harris to MIN for Conley & Kyle Anderson
-Chuma somewhere for a srp
-Bol to Shanghai Sharks for cash

Simons/Conley
Suggs/Agbaji/Whitehead
Franz/Kispert/Houstan
Paolo/Slo-Mo/Isaac
WCJ/Lively/Goga or M. Wagner

win a LOT more and evaluate for major FA offseason next summer (Conley, Isaac, Anderson money available). Conley and Anderson are about as good a pair of contributing mentors as you could ask for. Some nights either one could be the best player, but both are secure in limited roles, supporting the young studs. Simons scores 22ppg AND opens up things for 1st time All-Star Paolo. Lively provides rim protection we lack...IF Isaac is healthy, we are scary on the defensive end.

[89Magicfan]

It's exciting to wake up and see a lot of ORL trades in the "Trades & Transactions" threads...until you read them

Let's just go...
- Simons and #23(take Whitehead or Podzmieski) for #6 and cap space

-#11 to UTA for Agbaji and #16 (take Lively)

-take Trayce Jackson-Davis with #36 from IND (or whoever drops)

new backcourt overnight...now, who needs a PG?
-Cole Anthony to WAS for Corey Kispert
-Fultz and Harris to MIN for Conley & Kyle Anderson
-Chuma somewhere for a srp
-Bol to Shanghai Sharks for cash

Simons/Conley
Suggs/Agbaji/Whitehead
Franz/Kispert/Houstan
Paolo/Slo-Mo/Isaac
WCJ/Lively/Goga or M. Wagner

win a LOT more and evaluate for major FA offseason next summer (Conley, Isaac, Anderson money available). Conley and Anderson are about as good a pair of contributing mentors as you could ask for. Some nights either one could be the best player, but both are secure in limited roles, supporting the young studs. Simons scores 22ppg AND opens up things for 1st time All-Star Paolo. Lively provides rim protection we lack...IF Isaac is healthy, we are scary on the defensive end.

I stay away from most of that. Fans are always overvaluing or undervaluing.

[cedric76]

It's exciting to wake up and see a lot of ORL trades in the "Trades & Transactions" threads...until you read them

Let's just go...
- Simons and #23(take Whitehead or Podzmieski) for #6 and cap space

-#11 to UTA for Agbaji and #16 (take Lively)

-take Trayce Jackson-Davis with #36 from IND (or whoever drops)

new backcourt overnight...now, who needs a PG?
-Cole Anthony to WAS for Corey Kispert
-Fultz and Harris to MIN for Conley & Kyle Anderson
-Chuma somewhere for a srp
-Bol to Shanghai Sharks for cash

Simons/Conley
Suggs/Agbaji/Whitehead
Franz/Kispert/Houstan
Paolo/Slo-Mo/Isaac
WCJ/Lively/Goga or M. Wagner

win a LOT more and evaluate for major FA offseason next summer (Conley, Isaac, Anderson money available). Conley and Anderson are about as good a pair of contributing mentors as you could ask for. Some nights either one could be the best player, but both are secure in limited roles, supporting the young studs. Simons scores 22ppg AND opens up things for 1st time All-Star Paolo. Lively provides rim protection we lack...IF Isaac is healthy, we are scary on the defensive end.

Utah would not do that trade

And we would not to the fultz trade

[JRoy]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

[eyriq]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

They trippin'

[pepe1991]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

Wow that's a hole lot unrestricted FA next year, if he wants to be one.

[Skybox]

It's exciting to wake up and see a lot of ORL trades in the "Trades & Transactions" threads...until you read them

Let's just go...
- Simons and #23(take Whitehead or Podzmieski) for #6 and cap space

-#11 to UTA for Agbaji and #16 (take Lively)

-take Trayce Jackson-Davis with #36 from IND (or whoever drops)

new backcourt overnight...now, who needs a PG?
-Cole Anthony to WAS for Corey Kispert
-Fultz and Harris to MIN for Conley & Kyle Anderson
-Chuma somewhere for a srp
-Bol to Shanghai Sharks for cash

Simons/Conley
Suggs/Agbaji/Whitehead
Franz/Kispert/Houstan
Paolo/Slo-Mo/Isaac
WCJ/Lively/Goga or M. Wagner

win a LOT more and evaluate for major FA offseason next summer (Conley, Isaac, Anderson money available). Conley and Anderson are about as good a pair of contributing mentors as you could ask for. Some nights either one could be the best player, but both are secure in limited roles, supporting the young studs. Simons scores 22ppg AND opens up things for 1st time All-Star Paolo. Lively provides rim protection we lack...IF Isaac is healthy, we are scary on the defensive end.

Utah would not do that trade

And we would not to the fultz trade

=UTA smarter than us

[Redick07]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

Too much, absolutely. That is the package for Mikal Bridges type player! Holiday is a good player, but now he is not worth of this package.I will never give up such young talents to get a 33-year old former all-star.

[Skybox]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

Too much, absolutely. That is the package for Mikal Bridges type player! Holiday is a good player, but now he is not worth of this package.I will never give up such young talents to get a 33-year old former all-star.

Jrue is really good but that's way too much for a guy who got his ring and really isn't a "Star" and certainly a little old for us to invest like that.

[89Magicfan]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

Lol case in point.

No we’d never do that No one would do that.

[tiderulz]

Neutral third party here but saw on MIL board a post suggesting Jrue to ORL for;
#6
#11
25 Denver FRP
JI
Suggs
Fultz

I thought that was a bit too much for Jrue. Curious how ORL might value Jrue in a trade.

Orlando is further away than adding a 33 yr old Jrue. and even if they were not, he is not remotely worth that much

[Residual-Heat]

yeah thats a massive overpay for Jrue at this point. They can have Fultz+11, denver pick though