The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[Dat2U]

A Lively/Dick draft would be quite fulfilling.

[payitforward]

I guess somebody had to do it....

[doclinkin]

A Lively/Dick draft would be quite fulfilling.

As long its not the Leaky Black variation. That one has gotten worse over the years.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4395650/leaky-black

[closg00]

I am sold on Lively being the sneaky steal of the draft, people aren't talking about his 3-point shooting which apparently is part of his arsenal. Black or no Black @ 8, we should seriously be considering Lively @ 8.

[9 and 20]

I know nothing about prospects, or even basketball generally, some might say, other than my intimate knowledge of Wizards-branded urinal cakes.

Given Travis Schlenk's history with the Hawks, can the draft nerds compare Taylor Hendricks to John Collins. Also going back further with the Hawks, another name to throw out there is Josh Smith.

[pcbothwel]

I know nothing about prospects, or even basketball generally, some might say, other than my intimate knowledge of Wizards-branded urinal cakes.

Given Travis Schlenk's history with the Hawks, can the draft nerds compare Taylor Hendricks to John Collins. Also going back further with the Hawks, another name to throw out there is Josh Smith.

Collins is not a good comp. Much more like Rui in that he is a poor rebounder, but shows upside as a guy who can create for himself, doesn’t foul, and has more defensive versatility.

I don’t see a top 10 pick at all. His poor rebounding, FT Rate, and assist backup what you see on tape, which is a guy that shows little feel.
Dick, Wallace, Black, and Bilal are all better prospects to me.

[dobrojim]

A Lively/Dick draft would be quite fulfilling.

I agree but I will also point out that Kev felt Lively didn't make the
cut to be a 1st round choice. It would be awesome to get him in rnd 2.
I kinda doubt he lasts that long or at least not to our pick in rnd 2.
But it also seems a little unlikely he goes top 15. And yes, he could
be a head scratcher in a few years from now.

[dobrojim]

I have found it almost impossible to come to grips with this draft. Actually... forget the "almost."

Of the guys Dat has listed from 4 down to 16, the only ones about whom I have any confidence at all are Dereck Lively & Gradey Dick.

I would agree while adding Taylor Hendricks to the list. Chiefly by asking the question if their skill or talent directly translates.

Dereck Lively is a tall remarkably athletic player in the NCAA and will be a tall athletic player in the NBA. Prior to a reduced role in college, he has shown other complete game skills that suggest he is not slow of mind on court. I don't see him suffering from the syndrome of players like Wiseman, JaVale, Jaxson Hayes who are similar outliers in size and athleticism, but who never developed a complete game and could not defend out to the FT line. This last point earns Lively playing time. You can sub him in on defense and he won't be game-planned off the floor by teams that force a switch on every play.

Gradey Dick is a tall sharpshooter with a bit of a handle and a quick trigger. He moves well both off the ball and attacking close-outs to pull up. These skills translate to the NBA. A player like this bends defenses and requires adjustments by opposing coaches.

Taylor Hendricks is also a tall shooter with outside range. He will still be a tall shooter with range in the NBA. He adds shotblocking and steals, lob threat, a 9 foot reach, rim running, is active on both ends of the court, doesn't foul. Shooting, activity and height will earn him playing time. If Daniel Gafford could shoot from outside he'd be a starter at PF.

(Knock the AAC if you want but UCF played a tougher strength of schedule than 23 of the teams that played in March Madness, including against the #1 defense in the NCAA in Houston. Taylor played well).

For whatever reason these players are mostly not in the discussion at 8. Mostly due to upside. Still, I think Dick and Hendricks fall into the category of players who are swiftly productive on their first contract. Lively, well, Bigs often take a bit longer to develop, so who knows.

Gaff was our starting PF or C depending on how you classify him and KP. Gaff doesn't shoot much at all
from outside, this is true. But as a result, he had one of the highest FG% numbers in the league.
Not sure about advanced eFG or TS%. Towards the end of the season, he would occasionally take a
mid range shot and in my imperfect memory, wasn't horrible when he did.
How would Gaff compare to R Williams (BOS) if he played on that much better team?

(I know this is outside of the draft topic)

This is an intriguing draft. I've no idea how the players now ranked ~ 4-12 ie the ones
we are most likely looking seriously at, are going to be ranked by the end of their rookie
deals. I would not be shocked if in 1-3 years there weren't several additional examples
of players PIF will point out turned out much better than guys drafted ahead of them.
I think the reason(s) for that is complex. But more likely because high picks were overrated (duh).
And the difference between good and average players at the NBA level is pretty slight
to all but the most skilled observers, which leaves me out.

All that said, I'm not disagreeing with Doc's major points. If I was running the team, he'd
be on my council of talent evaluators.

[nate33]

I know nothing about prospects, or even basketball generally, some might say, other than my intimate knowledge of Wizards-branded urinal cakes.

Given Travis Schlenk's history with the Hawks, can the draft nerds compare Taylor Hendricks to John Collins. Also going back further with the Hawks, another name to throw out there is Josh Smith.

Collins is not a good comp. Much more like Rui in that he is a poor rebounder, but shows upside as a guy who can create for himself, doesn’t foul, and has more defensive versatility.

I don’t see a top 10 pick at all. His poor rebounding, FT Rate, and assist backup what you see on tape, which is a guy that shows little feel.
Dick, Wallace, Black, and Bilal are all better prospects to me.

I'm thinking Taylor Hendricks is somewhat similar to Cam Johnson. Johnson scored a higher volume with higher efficiency, but he was a 23-year-old senior. Hendricks is a better shot blocker.

[payitforward]

Gafford posted a .746 TS% which is great of course.
I understand the idea of comparing him to Robert Williams. Might add Mitchell Robinson as well.

Overall, he's not as good as either of those guys. Rebounding -- especially on the offensive end -- being the single biggest factor.

[NatP4]

I know nothing about prospects, or even basketball generally, some might say, other than my intimate knowledge of Wizards-branded urinal cakes.

Given Travis Schlenk's history with the Hawks, can the draft nerds compare Taylor Hendricks to John Collins. Also going back further with the Hawks, another name to throw out there is Josh Smith.

Collins is not a good comp. Much more like Rui in that he is a poor rebounder, but shows upside as a guy who can create for himself, doesn’t foul, and has more defensive versatility.

I don’t see a top 10 pick at all. His poor rebounding, FT Rate, and assist backup what you see on tape, which is a guy that shows little feel.
Dick, Wallace, Black, and Bilal are all better prospects to me.

100%. People are watching highlight reels on Hendricks, not full games. In a full game, he looks exactly like Rui. No awareness, gets lost on defense, is very non-physical, doesn’t box out, no team defense, doesn’t guard the perimeter like a wing. His only positive trait is 3pt shooting.

Again, 7 rebounds in the AAC as a 19.5 year old, is gonna translate to like 5-6 rebounds in the NBA as a PF. That’s terrible. He would be an awful pick in the top 10.

[Dat2U]

I know nothing about prospects, or even basketball generally, some might say, other than my intimate knowledge of Wizards-branded urinal cakes.

Given Travis Schlenk's history with the Hawks, can the draft nerds compare Taylor Hendricks to John Collins. Also going back further with the Hawks, another name to throw out there is Josh Smith.

Collins is not a good comp. Much more like Rui in that he is a poor rebounder, but shows upside as a guy who can create for himself, doesn’t foul, and has more defensive versatility.

I don’t see a top 10 pick at all. His poor rebounding, FT Rate, and assist backup what you see on tape, which is a guy that shows little feel.
Dick, Wallace, Black, and Bilal are all better prospects to me.

100%. People are watching highlight reels on Hendricks, not full games. In a full game, he looks exactly like Rui. No awareness, gets lost on defense, is very non-physical, doesn’t box out, no team defense, doesn’t guard the perimeter like a wing. His only positive trait is 3pt shooting. [/b]

Again, 7 rebounds in the AAC as a 19.5 year old, is gonna translate to like 5-6 rebounds in the NBA as a PF. That’s terrible. He would be an awful pick in the top 10.

Pot meet kettle. You could certaintly have a legitimate opinion on Hendricks as a prospect. You could certaintly not have as high of an opinion on him as others do but at least be honest when you say you've done your homework because the player you just described is not Hendricks.

[Rafael122]

Yeah Hendricks is ready to play for any team Day 1. He's a good defender, can step outside and shoot the 3. Honestly, out of all these prospects ranked in the top 10, I'd probably draft Hendricks at 8. The issue is he won't be there at 8, so it's a pointless convo but he would certainly be my top guy at 8 if he's there.

[nate33]

Yeah Hendricks is ready to play for any team Day 1. He's a good defender, can step outside and shoot the 3. Honestly, out of all these prospects ranked in the top 10, I'd probably draft Hendricks at 8. The issue is he won't be there at 8, so it's a pointless convo but he would certainly be my top guy at 8 if he's there.

It's a pretty sure bet that Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jarace Walker will also be gone by #8, so if Hendricks is gone too, that leaves us with Ausar, Black, Coulibaly, Wallace, Dick and Lively to choose from.

I'm having a pretty hard time picking among them.

The multi-tool versatile "athletic" guys like Ausar and Black seem like they might fall into the Troy Brown/Johnny Davis trap of not being good enough at any one thing to pan out as a starter. But if they learn to shoot they could be studs.

The defensive specialists like Coulibaly and Wallace have a low ceiling. Maybe they pan out as starters, but they have virtually zero chance of being an above-average starter or All-Star. Coulibaly's upside is Trevor Ariza, which is nice but not really a franchise changer. Wallace could be Jrue Holiday, but I'm leery of assuming anyone has the defensive chops of Jrue. If he is only 80% of Jrue, that makes him equivalent to someone like Dennis Schroder.

Dick feels like a little bit of a reach at #8 and very redundant with Kispert. I like him though. I'd like him better in a trade down to #10 or so.

Lively would require that one of Gafford/Porzingis be moved.

At the moment, I think I'd lean toward Ausar. I feel like he and Coulibaly have a similar floor as an ace defensive wing with a serviceable 3-point shot, but Ausar has a higher ceiling as a secondary playmaker. Man, I wish he was a better finisher at the rim.

[FAH1223]

A Lively/Dick draft would be quite fulfilling.

Your guy Domo big board

Read on Twitter

[tleikheen]

This is all just my wish list ..... i posted a Beal for Herro 6'5" (23 y o) and Robinson with Herro taking over PG and Robinson adding 3P shooting ,so drafting Ausar Thompson 6'6" 20 y o at SG) and #8 would instantly change the guards on the Wiz .

[80sballboy]

This is all just my wish list ..... i posted a Beal for Herro 6'5" (23 y o) and Robinson with Herro taking over PG and Robinson adding 3P shooting ,so drafting Ausar Thompson 6'6" 20 y o at SG) and #8 would instantly change the guards on the Wiz .

As long as Robinson comes off the bench, but Herro is just so bad defensively. Owe him $120M for four seasons. He's averaged 60.5 games per season thus far. I guess to trade Beal, you are not getting the perfect player by any means.

[doclinkin]

People are watching highlight reels on Hendricks, not full games. In a full game, he looks exactly like Rui. No awareness, gets lost on defense, is very non-physical, doesn’t box out, no team defense, doesn’t guard the perimeter like a wing. His only positive trait is 3pt shooting.

Incorrect. UCF is one of the few teams where full games are still available online. Even the highlight packages for them are 25 minutes of game action with the commercials and time outs removed. Feel free to watch for yourself:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

I think you fundamentally misunderstand Hendricks role in the UCF defense. His rebound totals are low, and I'd agree he is not an advanced rebounder, but his role had him acting as a one man zone. If it looks like he was floating, he was. Intentionally. He was most commonly defending out to the 3pt line or the zone above the FT line as a free floating defender. Essentially he was acting as an all purpose help defender in the SF role, not as a PF. If you look at him as a shotblocking wing player his numbers pop.

It's a distinctly different role than Rui, who is only good in a one-v-one match-up but has no responsibility in help defense. If Hendricks looks like he is processing, its because his role was to help everybody. Which naturally put him out of position to rebound and box out. But check him at 5:30 of the NIT game against Florida. He picks up the ball handling guard full court, stays in front of him while running backwards, then walls off his penetration into the paint, forcing a bad pass and a turnover.

I'd say in fact you were not watching his games, or else your judgement is skewed by an early strong opinion that you have now backed yourself into a corner to defend.

No player at 8 is flawless. Hendricks has his shortfalls. I'd agree rebounding habits are not a strength. What he does do will translate at the next level. And to my way of thinking, fits really well next to Deni, whose weaknesses are Hendricks' strengths and vice versa. Chemistry-wise it looks like a good fit.

[NatP4]

Those are highlight videos

[doclinkin]

Those are highlight videos

And? Many of their games are still available. Including here against Jarace Walker where he played well in a loss. Feel free to watch then make your argument, or I dunno revise your stance.

Watch on YouTube

Here's the Florida game:
https://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=afeb2360-e068-4ff1-bf0b-6548b17bcbb7