2023 Around The League NBA Playoffs Thread

[urinesane]

Do you suppose Connelly was trying to build an anti-Nuggets roster? On paper, it makes a lot of sense to plan for them. GSW were on fumes, LAL and LAC unknowns, and Phoenix would be expected to take a step back and didn't have KD at the time, so coming into the season, if you were to identify a threat over the next 3-5 years, it'd be Denver. And on top of that, we're in the same division.

We saw how important Denver's size was against Miami, and in theory, Jokic, Gordon, and MPJ wouldn't have those mismatches against KAT/Gobert/McDaniels. The fly in the ointment was maybe TC overestimated how well he knew KAT and Gobert's strengths and weaknesses. Maybe he didn't realize how well Gordon could contain KAT's offense, and that Gobert couldn't much slow down Jokic's offense at all.

Without Naz, Jaden, and Anderson (for game 5) you can't really look at the KAT/Gobert stuff in a vacuum. Considering how tough they played the Nuggets without those guys (especially Jaden who Murray told to stop blocking his shots in a game) it's hard to judge the KAT/Gobert part since Jaden is such an important part of the Wolves defense. Not only was Jaden's defense missed, but his offense would have made a huge difference as well, opening up more opportunities for the rest of the team.

The Nuggets have made it clear for all of those that love to focus solely on stars, it's a team game. It's all important. Having talent and stars is necessary, but the best team will win.

Not saying the Wolves would have beat the Nuggets, it's a team with (less than) 1 season experience together vs guys that are now part of a well oiled machine. I do think a healthy Wolves team this year could have taken the Nuggets to at least 6 or 7 games.

I think that it makes it pretty clear that they should run it back. A better defined/optimized system, more familiarity, and some better luck with health means that they aren't playing the Nuggets first thing in the playoffs and give them a much tougher matchup when healthy (probably the toughest matchup for the Nuggets in the league).

[Calinks]

If Kat could get his post game touch back and his three point shot was on point, I think he would have been a way bigger problem for Denver. The KAT/Gobert thing has to look better though. If it could get to a place where it clicks and we are healthy, I could see that being a problem for Denver.

Jokic has never been able to stop Towns but putting Gordoan on him was a big problem. If we could avoid that more and if Towns could post score on Gordan it would change the equation. Jaden would be a big help too, particularly if his offense was improved. Jokic will go off but that isn't as problmeatic as Jokic getting his teammates to go off. Also if KAT is able to operate and refine his attack he may be able to get Jokic in foul trouble with his drives.

[shrink]

Finally, it's Lurch that did it this time and not Butler (wait, he is the butler ). Although no great mystery but a great nba season. Just wish the Wolves won 2 more regular season games.

Thre might be another reality where we somehow made it to the conference finals, would have been an absolutely ridiculous turn around

If we’re talking alternate realities, if Anthony Edwards (3-for-17, 4 TO’s) hadn’t been putrid in the Lakers Over-Time Play-In game, we might be looking at the season very differently. Instead of facing DEN, I think we’d do well against that Grizzlies team with our size issues addressed, and I don’t think GSW was playing well either.

[shrink]

The Nuggets win showed that the copycat league’s push towards small-ball may be the wrong path. DEN won, and their size was very clearly a big advantage. It helps MIN to be there first, even if they have to trade a big.

Personally, I’ve never believed in small ball or big ball. I believe in talent ball. Find star-level players, regardless of their size, and maximize them.

[Calinks]

The Nuggets win showed that the copycat league’s push towards small-ball may be the wrong path. DEN won, and their size was very clearly a big advantage. It helps MIN to be there first, even if they have to trade a big.

Personally, I’ve never believed in small ball or big ball. I believe in talent ball. Find star-level players, regardless of their size, and maximize them.

At the end of the day its all about fit and chemistry. The Heat are nott super talented but they fit so very well and execute on their identity so well, it too them to the finals. Wolves have loads of talent but the fit was very bad and the chemistry/identity was nonexistent. Our talent still got us to the playoffs but we never looked like a cohesive team.

I think if anything, we aren't seeing that small ball or big ball is the key. The Key is total team play and contribution. THe days of having a big three that carry you are probably ending. Now its about team basketball. You don't need 3 superstars. You can have two but you need guys 3-10 to be strong role players who fit. You need the Kyle Andersons, Jaden McDaniels Bruce Browns, KCP's, Gabe Vincent's, Calbe Martins, etc.

You need those really professional players who are elites fits in their roles. That's how you win in the game going forward. Loading up with KD, Ayton, Booker, CP3 and a bunch of scrubs wont get it done. You need a cohesive team who knows who they are through and through. There is no room for doubt or experimentation when the post-seaosn rolls around.

[shangrila]

I don't know, Jokic is a generational player, two time MVP, playing the Finals averaging almost a triple-doble. He is only magnifying his reputation.

Towns hasn't that kind of performance or reputation. He has been mocked around the league and rivals before with a reputation of soft and weepy.

The fantastic performance of the best player right now don't extrapolate to another players with far less performances.

But, until he gets traded we will not know who is right.

Comparing KAT to Jokic or Embiid is an insult to the latter two. Towns isn't even in the same stratosphere

Brilliant observation.

Apparently it needs to be said.

[shangrila]

The Nuggets win showed that the copycat league’s push towards small-ball may be the wrong path. DEN won, and their size was very clearly a big advantage. It helps MIN to be there first, even if they have to trade a big.

Personally, I’ve never believed in small ball or big ball. I believe in talent ball. Find star-level players, regardless of their size, and maximize them.

At the end of the day its all about fit and chemistry. The Heat are nott super talented but they fit so very well and execute on their identity so well, it too them to the finals. Wolves have loads of talent but the fit was very bad and the chemistry/identity was nonexistent. Our talent still got us to the playoffs but we never looked like a cohesive team.

I think if anything, we aren't seeing that small ball or big ball is the key. The Key is total team play and contribution. THe days of having a big three that carry you are probably ending. Now its about team basketball. You don't need 3 superstars. You can have two but you need guys 3-10 to be strong role players who fit. You need the Kyle Andersons, Jaden McDaniels Bruce Browns, KCP's, Gabe Vincent's, Calbe Martins, etc.

You need those really professional players who are elites fits in their roles. That's how you win in the game going forward. Loading up with KD, Ayton, Booker, CP3 and a bunch of scrubs wont get it done. You need a cohesive team who knows who they are through and through. There is no room for doubt or experimentation when the post-seaosn rolls around.

The Big 3s always had strong supporting casts. The Heat don't win without the Rashard Lewis' or Mike Millers' of the world, nor do the Warriors without guys like Livingston, Iguodala or Lee. The questions that needed to be answered never changed (do you play defence? Do you win the rebounding battle? How deep is your bench?) it just got overshadowed by the stars.

I don't see Miami as being a sustainable model to follow anyway. Their role players spent much of the postseason shooting north of 50% from 3. That's not something you can rely on. And when it left them they tended to lose and lose big.

[shrink]

Comparing KAT to Jokic or Embiid is an insult to the latter two. Towns isn't even in the same stratosphere

Brilliant observation.

Apparently it needs to be said.

Actually, it didn’t need to be said, because if you read the post, nobody compared KAT to Jokic or Embiid.

But again, thanks for another worthwhile post

[shangrila]

Brilliant observation.

Apparently it needs to be said.

Actually, it didn’t need to be said, because if you read the post, nobody compared KAT to Jokic or Embiid.

But again, thanks for another worthwhile post

You questioned why people question KAT's defence but not Jokic's. It's because they're not comparable players. It doesn't have anything to do with traditional C position roles as a defensive anchor. Same reason people don't really bring up Steph's defence. Or Luka's.

But hey, you're welcome. Glad I could meet your lofty standards for post quality.

[urinesane]

The Nuggets win showed that the copycat league’s push towards small-ball may be the wrong path. DEN won, and their size was very clearly a big advantage. It helps MIN to be there first, even if they have to trade a big.

Personally, I’ve never believed in small ball or big ball. I believe in talent ball. Find star-level players, regardless of their size, and maximize them.

At the end of the day its all about fit and chemistry. The Heat are nott super talented but they fit so very well and execute on their identity so well, it too them to the finals. Wolves have loads of talent but the fit was very bad and the chemistry/identity was nonexistent. Our talent still got us to the playoffs but we never looked like a cohesive team.

I think if anything, we aren't seeing that small ball or big ball is the key. The Key is total team play and contribution. THe days of having a big three that carry you are probably ending. Now its about team basketball. You don't need 3 superstars. You can have two but you need guys 3-10 to be strong role players who fit. You need the Kyle Andersons, Jaden McDaniels Bruce Browns, KCP's, Gabe Vincent's, Calbe Martins, etc.

You need those really professional players who are elites fits in their roles. That's how you win in the game going forward. Loading up with KD, Ayton, Booker, CP3 and a bunch of scrubs wont get it done. You need a cohesive team who knows who they are through and through. There is no room for doubt or experimentation when the post-seaosn rolls around.

This.

[urinesane]

Comparing KAT to Jokic or Embiid is an insult to the latter two. Towns isn't even in the same stratosphere

Brilliant observation.

Apparently it needs to be said.

Apparently sarcasm isn't as popular in "The Land of Aus".

[urinesane]

The Nuggets win showed that the copycat league’s push towards small-ball may be the wrong path. DEN won, and their size was very clearly a big advantage. It helps MIN to be there first, even if they have to trade a big.

Personally, I’ve never believed in small ball or big ball. I believe in talent ball. Find star-level players, regardless of their size, and maximize them.

At the end of the day its all about fit and chemistry. The Heat are nott super talented but they fit so very well and execute on their identity so well, it too them to the finals. Wolves have loads of talent but the fit was very bad and the chemistry/identity was nonexistent. Our talent still got us to the playoffs but we never looked like a cohesive team.

I think if anything, we aren't seeing that small ball or big ball is the key. The Key is total team play and contribution. THe days of having a big three that carry you are probably ending. Now its about team basketball. You don't need 3 superstars. You can have two but you need guys 3-10 to be strong role players who fit. You need the Kyle Andersons, Jaden McDaniels Bruce Browns, KCP's, Gabe Vincent's, Calbe Martins, etc.

You need those really professional players who are elites fits in their roles. That's how you win in the game going forward. Loading up with KD, Ayton, Booker, CP3 and a bunch of scrubs wont get it done. You need a cohesive team who knows who they are through and through. There is no room for doubt or experimentation when the post-seaosn rolls around.

The Big 3s always had strong supporting casts. The Heat don't win without the Rashard Lewis' or Mike Millers' of the world, nor do the Warriors without guys like Livingston, Iguodala or Lee. The questions that needed to be answered never changed (do you play defence? Do you win the rebounding battle? How deep is your bench?) it just got overshadowed by the stars.

I don't see Miami as being a sustainable model to follow anyway. Their role players spent much of the postseason shooting north of 50% from 3. That's not something you can rely on. And when it left them they tended to lose and lose big.

So you wrote all that to agree with the post you quoted? The point being that top heavy teams simply don't work and it takes a full team effort and identity to sustain long term success.

[shrink]

Connolly designed the Nuggets with the same type of roster structure we have in MIN

Supermax KAT, Jokic
Max: Gobert (bit over), Murray
Max: Ant, MPJ
Close to Max: Jaden, Aaron Gordon
MLEish: SloMo?, KCP

And the rest trying to find surrounding cheap talent in the draft and free agency to fill out the team.


To me, this is the blueprint I would use for a contender. I believe that you need to get the most talent-dollars on the floor, and with shortened playoff rotations, I’d want to spend the bulk of my payroll on the top 10 players. The other five roster spots and three two-way players are needed to get you through a marathon season, but I think vet min and rookies fill those salary spots.

………………………

The salary cap for 24-25 is $143, but the supermax is $180. That will be the payroll goal for the wolves. $180 is 125% of the cap. So ..

35% KAT
31% Gobert
25% Ant
20% Jaden
5%: 5 Vet Min deals

9% 5 more, ($13 mil?) non vet-min players.
————-
125%

You can see the argument why one of the big four may need to go, if we want to keep someone like Anderson or Naz. Otherwise we jump over once, and reel it back. .. the cap will rise faster that the raises, so we will add percentages over time doing nothing. But the superlux rule does what it intends - it makes it difficult for GSW, LAC, DEN, or next year, MIN, to hoard multiple huge salary guys.

[Baseline81]

Connolly designed the Nuggets with the same type of roster structure we have in MIN

Supermax KAT, Jokic
Max: Gobert (bit over), Murray
Max: Ant, MPJ
Close to Max: Jaden, Aaron Gordon
MLEish: SloMo?, KCP

And the rest trying to find surrounding cheap talent in the draft and free agency to fill out the team.


To me, this is the blueprint I would use for a contender. I believe that you need to get the most talent-dollars on the floor, and with shortened playoff rotations, I’d want to spend the bulk of my payroll on the top 10 players. The other five roster spots and three two-way players are needed to get you through a marathon season, but I think vet min and rookies fill those salary spots.

………………………

The salary cap for 24-25 is $143, but the supermax is $180. That will be the payroll goal for the wolves. $180 is 125% of the cap. So ..

35% KAT
31% Gobert
25% Ant
20% Jaden
5%: 5 Vet Min deals

9% 5 more, ($13 mil?) non vet-min players.
————-
125%

You can see the argument why one of the big four may need to go, if we want to keep someone like Anderson or Naz. Otherwise we jump over once, and reel it back. .. the cap will rise faster that the raises, so we will add percentages over time doing nothing. But the superlux rule does what it intends - it makes it difficult for GSW, LAC, DEN, or next year, MIN, to hoard multiple huge salary guys.

[TimberKat]

Connolly designed the Nuggets with the same type of roster structure we have in MIN

Supermax KAT, Jokic
Max: Gobert (bit over), Murray
Max: Ant, MPJ
Close to Max: Jaden, Aaron Gordon
MLEish: SloMo?, KCP

And the rest trying to find surrounding cheap talent in the draft and free agency to fill out the team.


To me, this is the blueprint I would use for a contender. I believe that you need to get the most talent-dollars on the floor, and with shortened playoff rotations, I’d want to spend the bulk of my payroll on the top 10 players. The other five roster spots and three two-way players are needed to get you through a marathon season, but I think vet min and rookies fill those salary spots.

………………………

The salary cap for 24-25 is $143, but the supermax is $180. That will be the payroll goal for the wolves. $180 is 125% of the cap. So ..

35% KAT
31% Gobert
25% Ant
20% Jaden
5%: 5 Vet Min deals

9% 5 more, ($13 mil?) non vet-min players.
————-
125%

You can see the argument why one of the big four may need to go, if we want to keep someone like Anderson or Naz. Otherwise we jump over once, and reel it back. .. the cap will rise faster that the raises, so we will add percentages over time doing nothing. But the superlux rule does what it intends - it makes it difficult for GSW, LAC, DEN, or next year, MIN, to hoard multiple huge salary guys.

It's not as bad and is not the full story. Keep in mind the CAP will jump in 25/26 from ~134 to ~171. Towns supermax would look very favorable compared to supermax that are signed in that year. In addition, the 2nd apron is a soft cap. The rules around it is actually fairly reasonable. You still can operate fairly well. It's mostly around how much cash can be exchange in trades. I could post more about it later but check out this link for details: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-cba-101-everything-to-know-about-new-agreement-from-salary-cap-to-free-agency-and-beyond/

Here is my estimate even if we sign both Naz and NWL with a little front loading on their contracts with the allowed amt. Without getting into the full details of various exceptions, our worst case scenario is finding a pg to replace Conley in 24 for 3.8M. There are still more gymnastic that we can do if we are willing to go over second tier for 1 yr. I would put more of the spreadsheet here if I could figure out how to put a picture or tabular format in a post.

Year 2024----- 2025
Cap 134-----171
Gobert 43.8-----46.6
Towns 50-----54
Ant 33.5-----36.2
JMcD 26.8-----28.9
Naz 13.8-----13.8 front load at 15 in 2023
NAW 8.28-----8.28 front load at 9 in 2023
Conley off
KA off
TP off
Total 176.2-----187.8
tier1 -Lux 162-----199
tier 2 180-----217
Salary 3.8-----29.2

[minimus]

Connolly designed the Nuggets with the same type of roster structure we have in MIN

Supermax KAT, Jokic
Max: Gobert (bit over), Murray
Max: Ant, MPJ
Close to Max: Jaden, Aaron Gordon
MLEish: SloMo?, KCP

And the rest trying to find surrounding cheap talent in the draft and free agency to fill out the team.

To me, this is the blueprint I would use for a contender. I believe that you need to get the most talent-dollars on the floor, and with shortened playoff rotations, I’d want to spend the bulk of my payroll on the top 10 players. The other five roster spots and three two-way players are needed to get you through a marathon season, but I think vet min and rookies fill those salary spots.

Thank you for financial breakdown!

One thing I am thinking about after this Finals is what we can learn from both DEN and MIA? First thing we are clearly lacking is decision making, second thing is that we need more shooting.

Supermax Jokiс, Bulter - elite decision makers playmakers, either in offense or defense == KAT (developing decision maker in offense, although offensive fouls really hurt team, elite shooter, questionable decision in defense) ?
Max: Murray, Bam - good decision makers playmakers, either in offense or defense == Gobert (elite decision maker in defense, questionable with ball in his hands in offense) ?
Max: MPJ, Herro + Robinson - elite shooters == Edwards (still very raw decision maker in offense, some flashes of elite defender) ?
Close to Max: Aaron Gordon, Lowry == Jaden, Conley (good spotup 3pt %, elite decision maker in Conley) ??
MLEish: KCP, Braun, Martin + Strus + Vincent == SloMo (no shooting, good decision maker), Reid (decisive, aggressive playmaker from the bench), TP (elite corner 3 %s, not much else) ??

Our best decision makers are 35yo Conley, non-shooter Anderson and UFA Reid.
Our best shooters are Towns, TP.

The question for is whether our defense will be so good, that our issues in offense will be compensated enough to give our FO time to develop offensive chemistry, tweak roster. A few things here to consider:

- DLo, Nowell and Rivers were 5th, 6th and 9th in playing time. All three (plus Forbes) were not impressive in defense. Next season their minutes will be mostly distributed between NAW, Conley and hopefully Moore. So we might replace four awfull defenders with three good-to-excellent defenders

- Gobert was playing through minor injures and bad physical shape. It was very unusual for him and hopefully he will be in better shape. Edwards started season in bad physical shape, Towns was in bad physical shape as well. Hopefully healthy core will provide more effort, consistency in defense

- Conley has been great for us. But I saw all signs from MCD that he can thrive as third option in offense. His improvements as passer, scorer and decision maker are noticeable

To me the biggest improvement in offense might be Towns shooting AND decision making. Let say he can play like MPJ: stretch the floor on both wings, cut, rebound and rotate in defense. Or he can play two-man game with Edwards, Conley, MCD. It is not only about passing. It is also DECISION not to foul, or to re-screen, or to postup or shoot wide open 3s without any hesitation. We lack this free flow in offense, many actions from Towns looked forced, out of sync. He needs to find his game, rhythm.

[frankenwolf]

To me the biggest improvement in offense might be Towns shooting AND decision making. Let say he can play like MPJ: stretch the floor on both wings, cut, rebound and rotate in defense. Or he can play two-man game with Edwards, Conley, MCD. It is not only about passing. It is also DECISION not to foul, or to re-screen, or to postup or shoot wide open 3s without any hesitation. We lack this free flow in offense, many actions from Towns looked forced, out of sync. He needs to find his game, rhythm.

If finch can unlock KAT & Ant fully (and I think he's close) with this lineup, there shouldn't be a reason we can't be in the WCF easily next year. Towns just needs to be more comfortable in the system.

Spoiler:

Also, just thought of this. At the beginning of the season, when KAT was trying to feed Gobert so much, do you think he KNEW that D'Lo had no desire to do that and wanted Gobert to be happy here so he wouldn't have to play against the larger centers?
Pure speculation on my part

I'm pretty sure that using KAT / Gobert on PnR and Ant/Gobert PnR will get a lot better this year. As well as Murray/Jokic worked, can you imagine two sets with McD and one of KAT or Ant waiting for the kick outs? It could be deadly.

[urinesane]

To me the biggest improvement in offense might be Towns shooting AND decision making. Let say he can play like MPJ: stretch the floor on both wings, cut, rebound and rotate in defense. Or he can play two-man game with Edwards, Conley, MCD. It is not only about passing. It is also DECISION not to foul, or to re-screen, or to postup or shoot wide open 3s without any hesitation. We lack this free flow in offense, many actions from Towns looked forced, out of sync. He needs to find his game, rhythm.

If finch can unlock KAT & Ant fully (and I think he's close) with this lineup, there shouldn't be a reason we can't be in the WCF easily next year. Towns just needs to be more comfortable in the system.

Spoiler:

Also, just thought of this. At the beginning of the season, when KAT was trying to feed Gobert so much, do you think he KNEW that D'Lo had no desire to do that and wanted Gobert to be happy here so he wouldn't have to play against the larger centers?
Pure speculation on my part

I'm pretty sure that using KAT / Gobert on PnR and Ant/Gobert PnR will get a lot better this year. As well as Murray/Jokic worked, can you imagine two sets with McD and one of KAT or Ant waiting for the kick outs? It could be deadly.

I think the KAT trying to feed Gobert is just a sign of KAT's propensity for adapting to others and changing his game (often to his own detriment) to try and make things work.

Call him a whiner, soft, cringey, whatever... you cannot call him a bad teammate.

Had they been building around him his entire career and allowed him to focus solely on his game (rather than having him adapt constantly to new players/systems) he would have similar progression to Embiid and Jokic.

Don't take that last sentence as me saying he would be an MVP or as good as Embiid or Jokic, but he would be the best version of himself as a basketball player (whatever that may be) instead of people acting like he's past his prime years. While decisions going forward need to be focused on Ant, they also need to maximize KAT and find ways to enhance his wide array of skills. It seems like nearly every season he is asked to play a different style/game than the year before and that has stunted his progress compared to Embiid and Jokic, who have been allowed to fine tune their games each season, rather than having to play a new role/style or adapt to a completely different way of playing.

What we see in Jokic and Embiid are guys that have been able to play similar styles year after year and are now seeing the results of what happens when extremely talented people are allowed to laser focus on their game for many seasons in a row (and then have pieces brought in that work well/compliment that). KAT has had the opposite where he's never been able to play the same game year after year and instead has always been the one adapting to the pieces brought in.

[shangrila]

At the end of the day its all about fit and chemistry. The Heat are nott super talented but they fit so very well and execute on their identity so well, it too them to the finals. Wolves have loads of talent but the fit was very bad and the chemistry/identity was nonexistent. Our talent still got us to the playoffs but we never looked like a cohesive team.

I think if anything, we aren't seeing that small ball or big ball is the key. The Key is total team play and contribution. THe days of having a big three that carry you are probably ending. Now its about team basketball. You don't need 3 superstars. You can have two but you need guys 3-10 to be strong role players who fit. You need the Kyle Andersons, Jaden McDaniels Bruce Browns, KCP's, Gabe Vincent's, Calbe Martins, etc.

You need those really professional players who are elites fits in their roles. That's how you win in the game going forward. Loading up with KD, Ayton, Booker, CP3 and a bunch of scrubs wont get it done. You need a cohesive team who knows who they are through and through. There is no room for doubt or experimentation when the post-seaosn rolls around.

The Big 3s always had strong supporting casts. The Heat don't win without the Rashard Lewis' or Mike Millers' of the world, nor do the Warriors without guys like Livingston, Iguodala or Lee. The questions that needed to be answered never changed (do you play defence? Do you win the rebounding battle? How deep is your bench?) it just got overshadowed by the stars.

I don't see Miami as being a sustainable model to follow anyway. Their role players spent much of the postseason shooting north of 50% from 3. That's not something you can rely on. And when it left them they tended to lose and lose big.

So you wrote all that to agree with the post you quoted? The point being that top heavy teams simply don't work and it takes a full team effort and identity to sustain long term success.

I wrote 5 lines to expand on a point Calinks made that I agreed with, yes.

Not every reply needs to be disagreeing with the previous post.

[shangrila]

If Kat could get his post game touch back and his three point shot was on point, I think he would have been a way bigger problem for Denver. The KAT/Gobert thing has to look better though. If it could get to a place where it clicks and we are healthy, I could see that being a problem for Denver.

Jokic has never been able to stop Towns but putting Gordoan on him was a big problem. If we could avoid that more and if Towns could post score on Gordan it would change the equation. Jaden would be a big help too, particularly if his offense was improved. Jokic will go off but that isn't as problmeatic as Jokic getting his teammates to go off. Also if KAT is able to operate and refine his attack he may be able to get Jokic in foul trouble with his drives.

48 minutes a game of Jaden/NAW on Murray would have been awesome too, especially if Ant can do an adequate job of containing MPJ.