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Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!!

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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#481 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:21 pm

AirP. wrote:
MettaWorldPanda wrote:One thing I know about Brian Windhorst and Zach Lowe is they know nothing about what the Heat are going to do but love to bring them up on every possibility. Happens every single year. My top dog in trade possibilities in the club house is Porzingis once he opts in into his contract because of the feasibility, price of getting him, fit, and close ties to his agent. Would also put trading the 18th pick right up there with trying to get a future 2025 to unlock 4 1st rounders giving us ample trade flexibility. The Porzingis deal wouldn't take place until he opts in which means closer to the free agent signing period. Same goes for us making moves once Oladipo has opted in.

But the info they gave could be gathered by looking at the situation and by the other GMs they've talked to who have said Miami checked in or had checked in somewhat recently.

Why wouldn't Miami make a Porzingis trade then extend him themselves? It doesn't have to be a sign and trade, it can be a trade and then extend.

I fully expect Porzingis to be a trade and extend. This is the only way it works for Miami without getting hard capped. This is why him opting in is a god send for our trade possibilities and something hopefully him and his agent Schwartz discussed as the easiest possibility in getting him to his once long time preferred destination Miami.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#482 » by IceColdCubano » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:21 pm

CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter

This is what I am going to say about Bradley Beal VS Damien Lillard -
Beals only positive is his age he is younger than Damien Lillard, where you could at least play out his contract even with his NTC because his age gets you more prime years, although he is expensive he is still less than Lillard even if not by much. The NTC also helps Miami not having to end up losing as many assets from he trade to begin with.

When comparing players I always like to compare them no farther than 4 seasons because that usually a tell tale sign of recent production and pace they are still capable off even it tapers off slightly. The 5th season is usually a byproduct of upside from the previous 4.

Size:
Beal = 6'-4" <-BETTER
Lillard = 6'2"

Age:
Beal = 29 (turns 30 on June 28) <-BETTER
Lillard = 32 (turns 33 on July 15)

Games Played per season average:
Beal = 52
Lillard = 55 <-BETTER

Minutes Played per season average:
Beal = 35.33
Lillard = 36.5 <-BETTER

Points per game season average:
Beal = 27.05 , Per minute scoring values (1.306) <-BETTER
Lillard = 28.75,<-BETTER Per minute scoring values (1.269)

FG% per game season average:
Beal = 47.43 <-BETTER
Lillard = 44.48

3P% per game season average:
Beal = 34.18
Lillard = 37.18 <-BETTER

Rebound, Asst, Stl season average:
Beal = 4.4 , 5.6 , 1.0
Lillard = 4.4 , 7.5 , 0.9 <-BETTER

Overall: On Beal
- Younger than Lillard.
- Cheaper Contract.
- NTC which means could be had for less value in exchange.
- Beal has better measurables physically.
- Beal score more per minute played basis on the floor, and and their minutes played per game are rather close.
- Beal has a averages a better FG%, due mostly to his physical advantage and ability to get easier looks under the basket.

Overall: On Lillard
- More expensive contract.
- Will require more assets to get.
- Is smaller than Beal, which explains his lower FG% at the rim and below the three point line.
- Averages more game per season although rather close so minimal advantage there.
- Plays more minutes per game although rather close so minimal difference there.
- Shoots a better percentage from the range as far the three point line is concert.
- Has similar stats as far as rebounding and Steals to Beal, However the heavy separation is on Assist, is the better playmaker.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#483 » by greg4012 » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:21 pm

CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter


A trade for Beal/Porzingis would basically require all of Miami's decent sized tradeable contracts (outside of Caleb/Jovic)


AKA all of Miami's inflated junk
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#484 » by AirP. » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:23 pm

CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter


A trade for Beal/Porzingis would basically require all of Miami's decent sized tradeable contracts (outside of Caleb/Jovic)


These trades don't happen because the team can usually get more per piece in individual trades.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#485 » by IceColdCubano » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:25 pm

AirP. wrote:
CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter


A trade for Beal/Porzingis would basically require all of Miami's decent sized tradeable contracts (outside of Caleb/Jovic)


These trades don't happen because the team can usually get more per piece in individual trades.

youll probably have to replace Duncan for Herro, and take back another player 3 for 3, plus picks to get them to bite on this, I mean problably all our picks.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#486 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:26 pm

AirP. wrote:
CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter


A trade for Beal/Porzingis would basically require all of Miami's decent sized tradeable contracts (outside of Caleb/Jovic)


These trades don't happen because the team can usually get more per piece in individual trades.

Exactly. This is just spit ball fan lore. I thought about this same deal a few hours ago then completely back tracked off of it. It's better for us to just keep Herro for his age and salary compared to Beal and just add Porzingis. This deal has zero regard for the massive tax penalties and cap restrictions in the future.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#487 » by Heat3 » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:27 pm

CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter


A trade for Beal/Porzingis would basically require all of Miami's decent sized tradeable contracts (outside of Caleb/Jovic)


What is that LEBRON stat? :lol:
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#488 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:28 pm

Heat3 wrote:
CrossOver wrote:
Read on Twitter


A trade for Beal/Porzingis would basically require all of Miami's decent sized tradeable contracts (outside of Caleb/Jovic)


What is that LEBRON stat? :lol:

LEBRON (Luck-adjusted player Estimate using a Box prior Regularized ON-off) impact data is provided by BBall Index
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#489 » by AirP. » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:30 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:Exactly. This is just spit ball fan lore. I came thought about this same deal a few hours ago then completely back tracked off of it. It's better for us to just keep Herro for his age and salary compared to Beal and just add Porzingis. This deal has zero regard for the massive tax penalties and cap restrictions in the future.

With Herro, if he doesn't get dramatically better Miami will be in trouble. This new CBA will change the salary structure to even more of a max and minimum salary league with less middle class contracts so it may be much harder to upgrade in the near future a good player to a great player.

We're just a couple years from Beal averaging 30 a game on good efficiency, and he's in his prime at just now hitting 30 years old, the same age Butler was when you acquired him. Get the proven player if you can.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#490 » by 3ammy3uck3ts » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:31 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
dean456 wrote:Porzingis is a free agent so if he opted out there are little options for Washington so he'd basically be saying trade me to X team for what they will offer otherwise I'm opting out and playing elsewhere. Washington would essentially have to take what they can get at that point but Miami would have to give up something because we wouldn't be able to get him without trading with Washington.

So this will likely cost us our 2023 pick.

But if you can come away from the offseason with Porzingis for Lowry, Martin and #18 that's pretty damn good.

Gabe
Herro
Butler
KP
Bam

Would be a solid starting 5.

Swap out Martin for Duncan. We don't have to give up Martin in this deal. I'd rather compensate them with an extra pick if needed and bring back a PG either Wright or Morris.


Damn I forgot they had Wright too. Yea if this happened we definitely need to come out of it with one of these PGs
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#491 » by Rapaz » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:32 pm

Heat3 wrote:What is that LEBRON stat? :lol

Number of post-ups on diminutive point guards per 36 minutes.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#492 » by dean456 » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:33 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
dean456 wrote:Porzingis is a free agent so if he opted out there are little options for Washington so he'd basically be saying trade me to X team for what they will offer otherwise I'm opting out and playing elsewhere. Washington would essentially have to take what they can get at that point but Miami would have to give up something because we wouldn't be able to get him without trading with Washington.

So this will likely cost us our 2023 pick.

But if you can come away from the offseason with Porzingis for Lowry, Martin and #18 that's pretty damn good.

Gabe
Herro
Butler
KP
Bam

Would be a solid starting 5.

Swap out Martin for Duncan. We don't have to give up Martin in this deal. I'd rather compensate them with an extra pick if needed and bring back a PG either Wright or Morris.


Hard to make it work salary wise with Duncan included. Would imagine that Washington would want expiring money if they rebuilding.

One way to make that work would be to send Lowry, Duncan (3yr 18.1mil per) and #18 for Porzingis and Daniel Gafford (3yr 12mil per).

We would be taking back their longterm salary for ours but would at least give us a serviceable young backup Centre.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#493 » by AirP. » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:35 pm

The good news on not winning the Finals, there are players like Dame who now understand 2020 wasn't a fluke and if they team up with Bam and Butler they have a real shot at making a finals and the new player being a huge reason why they would win the finals vs riding on someone's coattails. They also know those 2 Miami stars are more than willing to allow others to score putting an offensive star nearly as good of a situation as they could ask for.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#494 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:37 pm

Read on Twitter


Only 3.8 million away from the supertax space with like half the roster still needing to be filled and without even discussing resigning Vincent and Strus. Some of you guys would never be able to work for Arison lol. Good lort
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#495 » by IceColdCubano » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:37 pm

AirP. wrote:The good news on not winning the Finals, there are players like Dame who now understand 2020 wasn't a fluke and if they team up with Bam and Butler they have a real shot at making a finals and the new player being a huge reason why they would win the finals vs riding on someone's coattails. They also know those 2 Miami stars are more than willing to allow others to score putting an offensive star nearly as good of a situation as they could ask for.

Yeah, its no longer fluckie seeing us get there 2 time in 4 years, and make it 3 times to the ECF with one of them being 1 good jumpshot away from being the finals 3 times.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#496 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:38 pm

IceColdCubano wrote:
AirP. wrote:The good news on not winning the Finals, there are players like Dame who now understand 2020 wasn't a fluke and if they team up with Bam and Butler they have a real shot at making a finals and the new player being a huge reason why they would win the finals vs riding on someone's coattails. They also know those 2 Miami stars are more than willing to allow others to score putting an offensive star nearly as good of a situation as they could ask for.

Yeah, its no longer fluckie seeing us get there 2 time in 4 years, and make it 3 times to the ECF with one of them being 1 good jumpshot away from being the finals 3 times.

What it tells me is that Bam and Butler are a really good duo
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#497 » by AirP. » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:39 pm

For those who want 2 players in a trade... Portland would want to move Nurkic also in a Lillard trade which sadly would help Miami's front line.
For next season, combined they make just under 63 mil.

For contracts to send out in probably a 3+ team trade...
Lowry 30
Herro 27
Robinson 18
Oladipo 9
Martin 7
Jovic 2
Highsmith 2

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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#498 » by AirP. » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:40 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:
AirP. wrote:The good news on not winning the Finals, there are players like Dame who now understand 2020 wasn't a fluke and if they team up with Bam and Butler they have a real shot at making a finals and the new player being a huge reason why they would win the finals vs riding on someone's coattails. They also know those 2 Miami stars are more than willing to allow others to score putting an offensive star nearly as good of a situation as they could ask for.

Yeah, its no longer fluckie seeing us get there 2 time in 4 years, and make it 3 times to the ECF with one of them being 1 good jumpshot away from being the finals 3 times.

What it tells me is that Bam and Butler are a really good duo

Yes, it says whatever issues they have offensively working together, they more than make it up by being high level defenders. The high level defense from the top 2 players is normally not at this level.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#499 » by IceColdCubano » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:41 pm

MettaWorldPanda wrote:
IceColdCubano wrote:
AirP. wrote:The good news on not winning the Finals, there are players like Dame who now understand 2020 wasn't a fluke and if they team up with Bam and Butler they have a real shot at making a finals and the new player being a huge reason why they would win the finals vs riding on someone's coattails. They also know those 2 Miami stars are more than willing to allow others to score putting an offensive star nearly as good of a situation as they could ask for.

Yeah, its no longer fluckie seeing us get there 2 time in 4 years, and make it 3 times to the ECF with one of them being 1 good jumpshot away from being the finals 3 times.

What it tells me is that Bam and Butler are a really good duo

It does, it also on the inverse tells you they aren't enough to get a championship as well, just good enough to put in position to be on that stage, just never good enough to get to hoist the trophy. We need either another Top tier scorer on this team or we need top tier role players around them. We cannot swap all our role players for better ones, its far easier just to go after a superstar/star level player to plug in there who becomes available.
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Re: Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!! 

Post#500 » by MettaWorldPanda » Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:41 pm

AirP. wrote:For those who want 2 players in a trade... Portland would want to move Nurkic also in a Lillard trade which sadly would help Miami's front line.
Read on Twitter

Spo would never in his life play Bam and Nurkic together and we wouldn't want all that money as a backup Center either.

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