Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[joshuacf]

The plot thickens:

Read on Twitter

This would honestly be a dream scenario for us.

1. We get KP for at least another half-season, so he helps the team and stretches the floor in the short term which will open things up for the young guys.
2. We are protected against him getting injured.
3. If he plays well, at the deadline we could trade him for legitimate value.
4. If we decide not to trade him, then we roll with him for the whole season and make a decision about bringing him back in 2024. It'll be much easier to pay him 30+ mil if he's coming off of two healthy seasons vs. only one.

Of course, if plays well and doesn't get injured, his contract is going to be larger in 2024 than it would be now, so we'll end up paying more. Still well worth it I think.

[badinage]

I didn’t realize — and someone correct me if I’m wrong and misheard the ESPN heads: Beal has say-so in what the trade pieces are????

[AFM]

I didn’t realize — and someone correct me if I’m wrong and misheard the ESPN heads: Beal has say-so in what the trade pieces are????

Well he has a no trade clause. So he can veto any trade if he doesn't like the pieces being sent out or back.

[nate33]

The plot thickens:

Read on Twitter

This would honestly be a dream scenario for us.

1. We get KP for at least another half-season, so he helps the team and stretches the floor in the short term which will open things up for the young guys.
2. We are protected against him getting injured.
3. If he plays well, at the deadline we could trade him for legitimate value.
4. If we decide not to trade him, then we roll with him for the whole season and make a decision about bringing him back in 2024. It'll be much easier to pay him 30+ mil if he's coming off of two healthy seasons vs. only one.

Of course, if plays well and doesn't get injured, his contract is going to be larger in 2024 than it would be now, so we'll end up paying more. Still well worth it I think.

Very interesting.

Overall, I'd say this development limits our downside risk for the reasons you articulated. We won't get locked into a really long contract if he gets hurt. And it still retains some upside in that if he plays well, he could be moved at the Trade Deadline.

The only negative is that this does limit our maximum upside scenario. The best-case scenario would be to lock him into a relatively low cost long term deal due to the perception of his poor durability, and then end up having him stay healthy so that he becomes an even more valuable trade asset down the road.

On balance, I'm happy with this development. Of course, it might just be posturing because the Porzingis camp doesn't like the initial extension offer being floated by the Wizards.

[nate33]

I didn’t realize — and someone correct me if I’m wrong and misheard the ESPN heads: Beal has say-so in what the trade pieces are????

Well he has a no trade clause. So he can veto any trade if he doesn't like the pieces being sent out or back.

Yeah, common sense would suggest that Beal will leverage his no trade clause to ensure that he goes to a desirable (for him) location. That will presumably rule out some percentage of the teams in this league who either live in undesirable destinations or have no chance at contention. I never thought the no trade clause was that big of a deal because, at his salary, I basically assumed he already had a de facto no trade clause. No team was ever going to trade for him unless they knew for sure that Beal was onboard with the trade arrangement. It's one thing to overpay for a star. It's another thing entirely to overpay for a star who doesn't want to be there.

The no trade clause also brings up the possibility that Beal will refuse to agree to a deal if the receiving team has to give up too many assets in order to acquire Beal. For example, Beal might conceivably refuse a Philly deal if Washington is insisting on getting Maxey in return, and will only sign off if Maxey stays in Philly. It's questionable how far Beal can push that angle though. Beal can't expect a trade where we get back negative value. At some point, Wizards management can tell Beal to go pound sand and just sit him on the sidelines during his final prime years (sort of like what Houston did to John Wall). Hardball works both ways.

[Frichuela]

I didn’t realize — and someone correct me if I’m wrong and misheard the ESPN heads: Beal has say-so in what the trade pieces are????

Well he has a no trade clause. So he can veto any trade if he doesn't like the pieces being sent out or back.

Yeah, common sense would suggest that Beal will leverage his no trade clause to ensure that he goes to a desirable (for him) location. That will presumably rule out some percentage of the teams in this league who either live in undesirable destinations or have no chance at contention. I never thought the no trade clause was that big of a deal because, at his salary, I assumed he already had a de facto no trade clause. No team was ever going to trade for him unless they knew for sure that Beal was onboard with the trade arrangement. It's one thing to overpay for a star. It's another thing entirely to overpay for a star who doesn't want to be there.

The no trade clause also brings up the possibility that Beal will refuse to agree to a deal if the receiving team has to give up too many assets in order to acquire Beal. For example, Beal might conceivably refuse a Philly deal if Washington is insisting on getting Maxey in return, and will only sign off if Maxey stays in Philly. It's questionable how far Beal can push that angle though. Beal can't expect a trade where we get back negative value. At some point, Wizards management can tell Beal to go pound sand and just sit him on the sidelines during his final prime years (sort of like what Houston did to John Wall). Hardball works both ways.

Agreed, particularly as it seems we finally have a competent front office!

[pcbothwel]

I didn’t realize — and someone correct me if I’m wrong and misheard the ESPN heads: Beal has say-so in what the trade pieces are????

Well he has a no trade clause. So he can veto any trade if he doesn't like the pieces being sent out or back.

Yeah, common sense would suggest that Beal will leverage his no trade clause to ensure that he goes to a desirable (for him) location. That will presumably rule out some percentage of the teams in this league who either live in undesirable destinations or have no chance at contention. I never thought the no trade clause was that big of a deal because, at his salary, I assumed he already had a de facto no trade clause. No team was ever going to trade for him unless they knew for sure that Beal was onboard with the trade arrangement. It's one thing to overpay for a star. It's another thing entirely to overpay for a star who doesn't want to be there.

The no trade clause also brings up the possibility that Beal will refuse to agree to a deal if the receiving team has to give up too many assets in order to acquire Beal. For example, Beal might conceivably refuse a Philly deal if Washington is insisting on getting Maxey in return, and will only sign off if Maxey stays in Philly. It's questionable how far Beal can push that angle though. Beal can't expect a trade where we get back negative value. At some point, Wizards management can tell Beal to go pound sand and just sit him on the sidelines during his final prime years (sort of like what Houston did to John Wall). Hardball works both ways.

Agreed... but that wont happen. Beal has a great relationship with Ted and the team, and our asking price wont be high (i.e. Gobert trade).

[payitforward]

Re: Porzingis -- I see the advantage to us if he's signed to a new contract. In that case, if he stays healthy, & has a good season -- isn't he a more valuable trade asset right away, at the next deadline than if he's expiring?

OTOH, if he's expiring, he's in the Kuzma category, where you're trying to do a sign-and-trade based on your bird rights. Going in that direction, the player takes a risk, but in return he gains more control.

If I'm the Wiz, I'd prefer to have him re-signed now. & who knows? Right away you might get an offer that you can't refuse.

[nate33]

Re: Porzingis -- I see the advantage to us if he's signed to a new contract. In that case, if he stays healthy, & has a good season -- isn't he a more valuable trade asset right away, at the next deadline than if he's expiring?

OTOH, if he's expiring, he's in the Kuzma category, where you're trying to do a sign-and-trade based on your bird rights. Going in that direction, the player takes a risk, but in return he gains more control.

If I'm the Wiz, I'd prefer to have him re-signed now. & who knows? Right away you might get an offer that you can't refuse.

Kuzma had value at the Trade Deadline. His value stinks now.

Likewise, even if Porzingis opt in, he will still have some value on a one-year deal with Bird Rights.

[ItsDanger]

I know Ted Leonsis more from NHL perspective than NBA circles but watching that press conference the other day, it seemed very likely he wants to rebuild and has accepted. His Capitals are approaching a similar situation but Ovechkin's a legacy player so they may ride it out longer. No such strong ties on Wizards.

[payitforward]

If we do trade Beal to Philly, I'd want to weight the trade heavily in the direction of picks. Or, more generally, in the direction of the future. That said, no doubt we'd have to take back Tobias Harris' expiring contract just to make a trade work.

My guess is they'd be extremely reluctant to include Maxey in the deal. At this point it's not clear how much better Beal is than Maxey -- if he's better at all. OTOH, they'd be delighted to send us Jaden Springer. Meh. Paul Reed. Less meh, but still....

I can see a deal without Maxey in it -- but they would have to deliver a whole bunch of picks!

[gambitx777]

Well he has a no trade clause. So he can veto any trade if he doesn't like the pieces being sent out or back.

Yeah, common sense would suggest that Beal will leverage his no trade clause to ensure that he goes to a desirable (for him) location. That will presumably rule out some percentage of the teams in this league who either live in undesirable destinations or have no chance at contention. I never thought the no trade clause was that big of a deal because, at his salary, I assumed he already had a de facto no trade clause. No team was ever going to trade for him unless they knew for sure that Beal was onboard with the trade arrangement. It's one thing to overpay for a star. It's another thing entirely to overpay for a star who doesn't want to be there.

The no trade clause also brings up the possibility that Beal will refuse to agree to a deal if the receiving team has to give up too many assets in order to acquire Beal. For example, Beal might conceivably refuse a Philly deal if Washington is insisting on getting Maxey in return, and will only sign off if Maxey stays in Philly. It's questionable how far Beal can push that angle though. Beal can't expect a trade where we get back negative value. At some point, Wizards management can tell Beal to go pound sand and just sit him on the sidelines during his final prime years (sort of like what Houston did to John Wall). Hardball works both ways.

Agreed... but that wont happen. Beal has a great relationship with Ted and the team, and our asking price wont be high (i.e. Gobert trade).

Beal can say no, but I doubt he cares about picks. He wants to win. So the players will be what he cares about. Plus the teams that are said to have interest or the assets to trade for Beal really have solid packages and filler that won't effect winnings. The only teams where the trade clause comes into effect for are random nobody teams like the hornets, Orlando, or what ever. Beal has a good relationship with Ted he won't **** him cuz Ted won't let winnger **** him and winnger being a competent GM won't **** him anyway.

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[nate33]

If we do trade Beal to Philly, I'd want to weight the trade heavily in the direction of picks. Or, more generally, in the direction of the future. That said, no doubt we'd have to take back Tobias Harris' expiring contract just to make a trade work.

My guess is they'd be extremely reluctant to include Maxey in the deal. At this point it's not clear how much better Beal is than Maxey -- if he's better at all. OTOH, they'd be delighted to send us Jaden Springer. Meh. Paul Reed. Less meh, but still....

I can see a deal without Maxey in it -- but they would have to deliver a whole bunch of picks!

They don't have any picks until 2029.

And a deal is possible without Harris coming back if it's integrated into a Harden to Houston trade.

[gambitx777]

If we do trade Beal to Philly, I'd want to weight the trade heavily in the direction of picks. Or, more generally, in the direction of the future. That said, no doubt we'd have to take back Tobias Harris' expiring contract just to make a trade work.

My guess is they'd be extremely reluctant to include Maxey in the deal. At this point it's not clear how much better Beal is than Maxey -- if he's better at all. OTOH, they'd be delighted to send us Jaden Springer. Meh. Paul Reed. Less meh, but still....

I can see a deal without Maxey in it -- but they would have to deliver a whole bunch of picks!

They don't have any picks until 2029.

And a deal is possible with Harris coming back if it's integrated into a Harden to Houston trade.

Asset wise the best they have is a first in 2029
The ability to offer 3 first round pick swaps , 5 second round picks, the draft rights to Filip Petrusev from the 2021 draft and Jaden springer.
Up dated
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[nate33]

If we do trade Beal to Philly, I'd want to weight the trade heavily in the direction of picks. Or, more generally, in the direction of the future. That said, no doubt we'd have to take back Tobias Harris' expiring contract just to make a trade work.

My guess is they'd be extremely reluctant to include Maxey in the deal. At this point it's not clear how much better Beal is than Maxey -- if he's better at all. OTOH, they'd be delighted to send us Jaden Springer. Meh. Paul Reed. Less meh, but still....

I can see a deal without Maxey in it -- but they would have to deliver a whole bunch of picks!

They don't have any picks until 2029.

And a deal is possible without Harris coming back if it's integrated into a Harden to Houston trade.

Asset wise the best they have is a fist in 2029
The ability to offer 2-3 first round pick swaps , 6 second round picks and Jaden springer.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Swaps with Philly are utterly worthless. Philly doesn't have a 2nd round pick until 2027.

[gambitx777]

They don't have any picks until 2029.

And a deal is possible without Harris coming back if it's integrated into a Harden to Houston trade.

Asset wise the best they have is a fist in 2029
The ability to offer 2-3 first round pick swaps , 6 second round picks and Jaden springer.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

Swaps with Philly are utterly worthless. Philly doesn't have a 2nd round pick until 2027.

They have one in 2024 from NYK.
One in 2027, 2028 and two in 2029 so I was off by one second lol. I'm not saying they are good assets at all but tis what they have to add into a trade is what I meant. I agree with the pick swaps, but If you're trading Beal to Philly you might as well take what they have to offer lol oh they also hold the draft rights to Filip Petrusev who's 23 6-11 from Serbia from the 2021 draft. Might as well ask for that too lol.

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[tleikheen]

KP opting in pushes forward the Wiz either signing him long term (another expensive contract) before he becomes an unrestricted FA after this upcoming yr. I see him being shopped for a trade.
Kuzma is watching Beal being talked about all over the league as teams think Beal can be gotten in a trade. Kuz isnt going to stick around a losing team when his skillz will be desired on teams also looking to play deep in to the playoffs.
This is starting to look like it could be a complete rebuild .

[payitforward]

In another thread, Zards wrote:

I’m not against tearing it down and rebuilding, but this notion that tearing it down is some sort of silver bullet—or the only way to compete for a championship—is wrongheaded, imo.

I agreed but concluded that:

I'd say it seems obvious that we need to rebuild. & we can't rebuild unless we tear down the current version of the Washington Wizards.

Here's my tear-down:

We have 13 guys under contract:

1 of them, Porzingis, presents a big, big decision -- but not one that has to be made right now.

Of the other 12, I'm pretty sure I'd keep 3 for now:

Goodwin is a no-brainer given how he's looked so far.
Kispert is also a no-brainer to keep for now.
Gafford is still good value even on his new contract.

Of the other 9, however:

Brad has to go. This off season or at the next deadline.
Kuz has to go. This off season.
Todd has to go: cut him if we can still stay under the tax despite paying his guaranteed $1.8m.
Wright & Morris are expiring. If there's a deal that brings solid rebuilding value (a pick &/or & a young guy with potential) then either 1 or both of them should go this off season.
Deni gets this year -- period! -- but I'd be listening to offers.
Johnny Davis gets this year to take hold; he needs to look like a real NBA player. Still, here too I'd be listening to offers.
Cooks is guaranteed & cheap -- might as well take a look, but that's as far as it goes.
Gill is expiring. For the time being he's good value at the end of the bench. Still, if someone wanted to give a R2 pick for him, any R2 pick, I'd jump on it.

We have 3 draft picks & should use them all. & we also need to find a good prospect among the undrafted.
At least 4 rookies -- you know... operate the way Memphis does!!

[DCZards]

At some point, Wizards management can tell Beal to go pound sand and just sit him on the sidelines during his final prime years (sort of like what Houston did to John Wall). Hardball works both ways.

That ain’t happening. No way Beal gets treated in DC like Wall got treated in Houston.

Something will be worked out before it gets to that point.

[NatP4]

He’s right though. Ultimately the wizards have control over the situation. They can rebuild regardless and staple Beal to the bench to waste the rest of his career.

It’s in his best interest to work with the team to find a good trade destination.