2022-23 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5161 » by eminence » Thu Jun 15, 2023 2:34 am

OhayoKD wrote:
eminence wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:.


Pre-expansion Kareem was in HS. I have no idea what you're trying to reference there. Late 60's into early 70's is by far the worst period for expansion in the shot-clock era.

I was talking about the 4-team expansion post-merger.

Is there a reason you haven't addressed...
You've crossed your t's here. I've specifically argued that you can't assume pre-expansion Kareem's situational impact is lower just because he played in a weaker league and have expressly advocated for 72 as a peak-year. You're trying to scale "peak" jordan's value off of "non-peak" jordan because he was older.

or...
Jordan "looking not too shabby" with On+on is reliant on you treating 97 as his post-prime like I was(perhaps generously) with his raw on/off. The vast majority of 97 Jordan's on+on comes from the strength of his 69-win team. You cannot just assume that Jordan's on+on was better in years he was winning 45-60 games because "it's not one of his best years".

This marks the second time this week you've implied I'm not being consistent because you didn't pay attention to what I was saying or have said.


Fair, personally I couldn't give a hoot about post-merger 'expansion'. It and all other expansions are blips compared to the mid 60's to ABA creation expansion.

I haven't tried to scale MJ anywhere, I've tried to give you a slightly better technique because yours was (is) not very good. I'm not particularly interested/invested in yet another MJ debate on this site. '97 is highly likely somewhere between 1st and 4th ('91/'92/'96) for MJ by On+On as you've coined it. Take what you will from that, I'll tap out.

I understood just fine, so I won't imply for your sake. Bothering to bring up the late 90's being 'watered-down' due to expansion (to imply Jordan's 'value' overstated his 'goodness) whilst simultaneously championing Russells run through the '69 POs and KAJ's rookie arrival in '70 is inconsistent, to put it generously.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5162 » by OhayoKD » Thu Jun 15, 2023 3:03 am

eminence wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
eminence wrote:-

Whatever. 1-4 seems reasonable, so cool.
I understood just fine

DId ya?
you wrote:That doesn't seem too shabby for a season most wouldn't have at the very top of MJs years.

I wrote: Jordan being worse also does not necessitate his situational value is lower when he is playing in a watered down-league. Most people would not have 97 as Jordan's peak, but by the metric you're using, it should probably score as one of his highest.

Maybe I'm blind, but it seems I brought up the league being watered down to imply that Jordan's 97 is not necessarily "less valuable" than when he was better in a stronger league. Maybe you can point out to me where in my post I tried to argue Jordan is less valuable than Lebron because his league was "weaker"?

Discounting accomplishments based on league-strength is something you have done. Even when those same players go and accomplish **** others have not when the competition got tougher.

Maybe next time you want to say i'm being inconsistent, you can actually quote what you're perceiving as an inconsistency? I think that would be better for everyone's sake then you drawing things out for multiple posts because you couldn't be bothered to track what I actually said.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5163 » by ronnymac2 » Thu Jun 15, 2023 3:10 am

I wanted to put this Monday night but was traveling for work:

Monday's Game 5 was the best NBA game of the season. The best play was Strus and Gordon sprinting in the second half and giving it all they had to get to a loose ball. The competition was so fierce that I swear I saw Spoelstra wipe blood off his chin.

Both teams under 100 ORTG. Everything a struggle. I saw two groups of absolute savages trying to win a game by any means necessary.

Joker's rebounding in the second half IMHO was the key. He controlled the game with his defensive rebounding to push the pace from one end and the threat of his offensive rebounding and effort from the other end.

I need to watch this man play live. I suspect he is quicker than he appears to our lying eyes via television. He's like a small Shaq with Jason Kidd's brain, Paul Pierce's brilliant combination of underrated quickness and ability to use his strength/body effectively...and then add some unique, best-in-class shooting touch. Miami and Los Angeles are great defensive teams with great big men and defensive forwards, yet Joker found a way to...essentially smash both of them.

Can't help but feel happy for Denver. Malone has been soldiering away for nearly a decade on a franchise without a winning pedigree. Jokic is everything a franchise fanbase could possibly want in a best player, leader, and even role model. Murray and MPJ coming back from devastating injuries to be champions. AG being traded and known as just a dunk-contest guy turns into a hustle guy with a furious motor.

My guy Jeff Green having open-heart surgery over a decade ago yet is so committed to the game and is such a positive force in a locker room...not sure anybody earned a championship more than him. Same goes for DeAndre Jordan, who still finds himself rostered presumably because he's a solid teammate.

KCP was kicked to the curb by a team where he was arguably the third-most important guy in a Finals-winning playoff run. So he goes and kills that team and then wins a title. Bruce Brown wins a chip before KD, Kyrie, and Beard. Hilarious. Even this kid Braun...he belongs in the NBA. Absolutely sucked all playoffs, but he stayed the course and had the trust of his coach and came through in big moments in the Finals.

Much respect to Miami. I actually think they have a bright (immediate) future. Vincent, Robinson, Herro, Adebayo, Strus, Martin, and Highsmith are all still on the right side of 30. Butler keeps himself in shape. Age is really only an issue for Love and Lowry. Both of whom I thought were awesome during this playoff run btw.

Two more things about Denver:

1. Murray is the team's second-best player. Gordon is third. I'd put KCP at four, though I can accept Brown considering his playoffs. His excellent Game 5 aside, Porter Jr. is by far the team's worst player relative to his role/expectations. I looked to see and Denver is actually paying this guy $33 million, $35 million, $38 million, and $40 million through 2027. Now I'm reading they may not be able to keep Brown. That is a crippling contract for a guy who is a pedestrian defender and has the lowest offensive IQ of any starter in the league. That is insane. Has to be a top-5 worst contract in the league.

2. Out of the 16 playoff teams, Denver ranked 14th in 3PAr at .349. They took 30 3-point shots per night in their 20 playoff games. They put up a 119.5 oRTG, which was the best in the playoffs.

You need 3's. You need 3's for sure. But you don't need to chuck them at some high rates to be an effective offensive team in today's NBA. I do hope this goes to show that to other teams and we stop accelerating the 3PAr to the degree that we have been over the past several seasons.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5164 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 15, 2023 3:15 am

ronnymac2 wrote:I wanted to put this Monday night but was traveling for work:

Monday's Game 5 was the best NBA game of the season. The best play was Strus and Gordon sprinting in the second half and giving it all they had to get to a loose ball. The competition was so fierce that I swear I saw Spoelstra wipe blood off his chin.

Both teams under 100 ORTG. Everything a struggle. I saw two groups of absolute savages trying to win a game by any means necessary.

Joker's rebounding in the second half IMHO was the key. He controlled the game with his defensive rebounding to push the pace from one end and the threat of his offensive rebounding and effort from the other end.

I need to watch this man play live. I suspect he is quicker than he appears to our lying eyes via television. He's like a small Shaq with Jason Kidd's brain, Paul Pierce's brilliant combination of underrated quickness and ability to use his strength/body effectively...and then add some unique, best-in-class shooting touch. Miami and Los Angeles are great defensive teams with great big men and defensive forwards, yet Joker found a way to...essentially smash both of them.

Can't help but feel happy for Denver. Malone has been soldiering away for nearly a decade on a franchise without a winning pedigree. Jokic is everything a franchise fanbase could possibly want in a best player, leader, and even role model. Murray and MPJ coming back from devastating injuries to be champions. AG being traded and known as just a dunk-contest guy turns into a hustle guy with a furious motor.

My guy Jeff Green having open-heart surgery over a decade ago yet is so committed to the game and is such a positive force in a locker room...not sure anybody earned a championship more than him. Same goes for DeAndre Jordan, who still finds himself rostered presumably because he's a solid teammate.

KCP was kicked to the curb by a team where he was arguably the third-most important guy in a Finals-winning playoff run. So he goes and kills that team and then wins a title. Bruce Brown wins a chip before KD, Kyrie, and Beard. Hilarious. Even this kid Braun...he belongs in the NBA. Absolutely sucked all playoffs, but he stayed the course and had the trust of his coach and came through in big moments in the Finals.

Much respect to Miami. I actually think they have a bright (immediate) future. Vincent, Robinson, Herro, Adebayo, Strus, Martin, and Highsmith are all still on the right side of 30. Butler keeps himself in shape. Age is really only an issue for Love and Lowry. Both of whom I thought were awesome during this playoff run btw.

Two more things about Denver:

1. Murray is the team's second-best player. Gordon is third. I'd put KCP at four, though I can accept Brown considering his playoffs. His excellent Game 5 aside, Porter Jr. is by far the team's worst player relative to his role/expectations. I looked to see and Denver is actually paying this guy $33 million, $35 million, $38 million, and $40 million through 2027. Now I'm reading they may not be able to keep Brown. That is a crippling contract for a guy who is a pedestrian defender and has the lowest offensive IQ of any starter in the league. That is insane. Has to be a top-5 worst contract in the league.

2. Out of the 16 playoff teams, Denver ranked 14th in 3PAr at .349. They took 30 3-point shots per night in their 20 playoff games. They put up a 119.5 oRTG, which was the best in the playoffs.

You need 3's. You need 3's for sure. But you don't need to chuck them at some high rates to be an effective offensive team in today's NBA. I do hope this goes to show that to other teams and we stop accelerating the 3PAr to the degree that we have been over the past several seasons.


Great post.

To add to this: The Refs allowed the game to be played this way. It was great.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5165 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 15, 2023 5:16 am

I hope everyone is prepared for a white guy named Gradey Dick to be the best Wing from this draft class.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5166 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 15, 2023 4:13 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:KCP was kicked to the curb by a team where he was arguably the third-most important guy in a Finals-winning playoff run. So he goes and kills that team and then wins a title.


I wanted to dwell on KCP for a bit longer. I am happy for him, and I do think it puts you into a pretty special category when you're a big minute guy on champions for two different franchises...but I have emotions here about the Lakers parting ways with him.

Underlying everything here is my belief that role players are really important specifically for dynasties, because these guys essentially get to train on being the perfect sidekick to the specific stars they play with. And thus, if you want a dynasty, you look to retain - and don't look to trade - role players who've successfully molded themselves to be just the shape your team needs.

In the modern NBA, that's easier said than done because of purposeful rules which tend to make teams have to only keep a couple such players across multiple contracts, and so that's my general expectation. So with the '19-20 Lakers, there were 3 young guys who were candidates to be kept - KCP, Caruso, Kuzma - and I thought unfortunately it was unrealistic to keep all of them.

Instead they got rid of all of them in the off-season immediately after the Lakers finally lost a series, and only lost it because AD got injured. I thought it was just unbelievably foolish.

And yeah, of that trio, KCP had emerged as the one who had carved the biggest niche, and for him to now win another title? There's a future where he starts getting some of that Horry shine.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5167 » by parsnips33 » Thu Jun 15, 2023 4:19 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:I need to watch this man play live. I suspect he is quicker than he appears to our lying eyes via television. He's like a small Shaq with Jason Kidd's brain, Paul Pierce's brilliant combination of underrated quickness and ability to use his strength/body effectively...and then add some unique, best-in-class shooting touch. Miami and Los Angeles are great defensive teams with great big men and defensive forwards, yet Joker found a way to...essentially smash both of them.


Had the pleasure of seeing him live last season. Somehow 15% bigger than you expect and his touch is just incredible
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5168 » by Ambrose » Thu Jun 15, 2023 4:21 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:1. Murray is the team's second-best player. Gordon is third. I'd put KCP at four, though I can accept Brown considering his playoffs. His excellent Game 5 aside, Porter Jr. is by far the team's worst player relative to his role/expectations. I looked to see and Denver is actually paying this guy $33 million, $35 million, $38 million, and $40 million through 2027. Now I'm reading they may not be able to keep Brown. That is a crippling contract for a guy who is a pedestrian defender and has the lowest offensive IQ of any starter in the league. That is insane. Has to be a top-5 worst contract in the league.


I'm going to slightly push back on this. MPJ is 24 (almost 25) and has played less than 200 regular season games. Health permitting, there is a lot of room for him to grow the next few years. Otherwise I think you're spot on.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5169 » by tsherkin » Thu Jun 15, 2023 4:33 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:And yeah, of that trio, KCP had emerged as the one who had carved the biggest niche, and for him to now win another title? There's a future where he starts getting some of that Horry shine.


LA's management team has not cultivated a reputation for particularly stellar decision-making or foresight.

ronnymac2 wrote:2. Out of the 16 playoff teams, Denver ranked 14th in 3PAr at .349. They took 30 3-point shots per night in their 20 playoff games. They put up a 119.5 oRTG, which was the best in the playoffs.

You need 3's. You need 3's for sure. But you don't need to chuck them at some high rates to be an effective offensive team in today's NBA. I do hope this goes to show that to other teams and we stop accelerating the 3PAr to the degree that we have been over the past several seasons.



Great post overall. Wanted to touch on this.

As much as anything, the NBA is a league of trends. Teams copy what appears to be working until someone finds another way to do it. That's how it was with large, post-scoring bigs, then it was wing scorers. Helio guys. Aggressive, physical defense and horribly-boring low-tempo ball. Shift to up-tempo ball. SSOL, primary PnR handlers running everything. Trends, again and again when teams find ways to do something new and cool with given talent.

It'll be interesting to see what teams take from this one. Part of the problem adapting Denver's strategy is that no one else has Jokic. The absurdly-efficient interior volume scorer with 3pt range and ATG passing? That's tough to replicate offensively, particularly without the pay-off from high 3PAr, no matter the variance.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5170 » by Peregrine01 » Thu Jun 15, 2023 5:02 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:I need to watch this man play live. I suspect he is quicker than he appears to our lying eyes via television. He's like a small Shaq with Jason Kidd's brain, Paul Pierce's brilliant combination of underrated quickness and ability to use his strength/body effectively...and then add some unique, best-in-class shooting touch. Miami and Los Angeles are great defensive teams with great big men and defensive forwards, yet Joker found a way to...essentially smash both of them.


He’s got very quick feet. That doesn’t mean he’s gonna beat anyone down the floor but the guy gets a step on guys at will. The dude routinely beat AD to the rim who’s considered one of the most mobile bigs ever.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5171 » by Heej » Thu Jun 15, 2023 5:07 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:And yeah, of that trio, KCP had emerged as the one who had carved the biggest niche, and for him to now win another title? There's a future where he starts getting some of that Horry shine.


LA's management team has not cultivated a reputation for particularly stellar decision-making or foresight.

ronnymac2 wrote:2. Out of the 16 playoff teams, Denver ranked 14th in 3PAr at .349. They took 30 3-point shots per night in their 20 playoff games. They put up a 119.5 oRTG, which was the best in the playoffs.

You need 3's. You need 3's for sure. But you don't need to chuck them at some high rates to be an effective offensive team in today's NBA. I do hope this goes to show that to other teams and we stop accelerating the 3PAr to the degree that we have been over the past several seasons.



Great post overall. Wanted to touch on this.

As much as anything, the NBA is a league of trends. Teams copy what appears to be working until someone finds another way to do it. That's how it was with large, post-scoring bigs, then it was wing scorers. Helio guys. Aggressive, physical defense and horribly-boring low-tempo ball. Shift to up-tempo ball. SSOL, primary PnR handlers running everything. Trends, again and again when teams find ways to do something new and cool with given talent.

It'll be interesting to see what teams take from this one. Part of the problem adapting Denver's strategy is that no one else has Jokic. The absurdly-efficient interior volume scorer with 3pt range and ATG passing? That's tough to replicate offensively, particularly without the pay-off from high 3PAr, no matter the variance.

Guarantee everyone's gonna want a pivot passer/short roll playmaker after this. I thought people would've caught on with Draymond being a foundational piece in the Warriors offense playing that role, but the Splash Brothers shone too brightly. Would be really good for the game if we cycled back to pivot passers being en vogue again.

I completely agree on the 3pa observations. Correct me if I'm wrong but we've essentially hit a plateau as far as 3 point attempts by teams in the last couple years right? I remember seeing that, and it makes sense that we've explored the upper bounds of 3 point chucking and found diminishing returns; thus causing teams to lock in their optimal 3p attempt numbers and attempting to find an edge elsewhere
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5172 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 15, 2023 5:37 pm

Heej wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:And yeah, of that trio, KCP had emerged as the one who had carved the biggest niche, and for him to now win another title? There's a future where he starts getting some of that Horry shine.


LA's management team has not cultivated a reputation for particularly stellar decision-making or foresight.

ronnymac2 wrote:2. Out of the 16 playoff teams, Denver ranked 14th in 3PAr at .349. They took 30 3-point shots per night in their 20 playoff games. They put up a 119.5 oRTG, which was the best in the playoffs.

You need 3's. You need 3's for sure. But you don't need to chuck them at some high rates to be an effective offensive team in today's NBA. I do hope this goes to show that to other teams and we stop accelerating the 3PAr to the degree that we have been over the past several seasons.



Great post overall. Wanted to touch on this.

As much as anything, the NBA is a league of trends. Teams copy what appears to be working until someone finds another way to do it. That's how it was with large, post-scoring bigs, then it was wing scorers. Helio guys. Aggressive, physical defense and horribly-boring low-tempo ball. Shift to up-tempo ball. SSOL, primary PnR handlers running everything. Trends, again and again when teams find ways to do something new and cool with given talent.

It'll be interesting to see what teams take from this one. Part of the problem adapting Denver's strategy is that no one else has Jokic. The absurdly-efficient interior volume scorer with 3pt range and ATG passing? That's tough to replicate offensively, particularly without the pay-off from high 3PAr, no matter the variance.

Guarantee everyone's gonna want a pivot passer/short roll playmaker after this. I thought people would've caught on with Draymond being a foundational piece in the Warriors offense playing that role, but the Splash Brothers shone too brightly. Would be really good for the game if we cycled back to pivot passers being en vogue again.

I completely agree on the 3pa observations. Correct me if I'm wrong but we've essentially hit a plateau as far as 3 point attempts by teams in the last couple years right? I remember seeing that, and it makes sense that we've explored the upper bounds of 3 point chucking and found diminishing returns; thus causing teams to lock in their optimal 3p attempt numbers and attempting to find an edge elsewhere


Indeed, we seem to be finally hitting an equilibrium for pace and an equilibrium for space so far as that is synonymous with 3-point shooting rate. ORtg is still increasing so I don't think the paradigm shift is completed yet, but we may be close.

That said, I think we know that space is not linearly proportional to 3-point rate, and I think that the big thing is that there's a serious cost to a guy not being a threat from 3, so almost everybody in the future NBA's going to have this ability, which then forces defenses to play spaced as a matter of course, and then the offenses look to take what's given.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5173 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 15, 2023 5:37 pm

Heej wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:And yeah, of that trio, KCP had emerged as the one who had carved the biggest niche, and for him to now win another title? There's a future where he starts getting some of that Horry shine.


LA's management team has not cultivated a reputation for particularly stellar decision-making or foresight.

ronnymac2 wrote:2. Out of the 16 playoff teams, Denver ranked 14th in 3PAr at .349. They took 30 3-point shots per night in their 20 playoff games. They put up a 119.5 oRTG, which was the best in the playoffs.

You need 3's. You need 3's for sure. But you don't need to chuck them at some high rates to be an effective offensive team in today's NBA. I do hope this goes to show that to other teams and we stop accelerating the 3PAr to the degree that we have been over the past several seasons.



Great post overall. Wanted to touch on this.

As much as anything, the NBA is a league of trends. Teams copy what appears to be working until someone finds another way to do it. That's how it was with large, post-scoring bigs, then it was wing scorers. Helio guys. Aggressive, physical defense and horribly-boring low-tempo ball. Shift to up-tempo ball. SSOL, primary PnR handlers running everything. Trends, again and again when teams find ways to do something new and cool with given talent.

It'll be interesting to see what teams take from this one. Part of the problem adapting Denver's strategy is that no one else has Jokic. The absurdly-efficient interior volume scorer with 3pt range and ATG passing? That's tough to replicate offensively, particularly without the pay-off from high 3PAr, no matter the variance.

Guarantee everyone's gonna want a pivot passer/short roll playmaker after this. I thought people would've caught on with Draymond being a foundational piece in the Warriors offense playing that role, but the Splash Brothers shone too brightly. Would be really good for the game if we cycled back to pivot passers being en vogue again.

I completely agree on the 3pa observations. Correct me if I'm wrong but we've essentially hit a plateau as far as 3 point attempts by teams in the last couple years right? I remember seeing that, and it makes sense that we've explored the upper bounds of 3 point chucking and found diminishing returns; thus causing teams to lock in their optimal 3p attempt numbers and attempting to find an edge elsewhere


Indeed, we seem to be finally hitting an equilibrium for pace and an equilibrium for space so far as that is synonymous with 3-point shooting rate. ORtg is still increasing so I don't think the paradigm shift is completed yet, but we may be close.

That said, I think we know that space is not linearly proportional to 3-point rate, and I think that the big thing is that there's a serious cost to a guy not being a threat from 3, so almost everybody in the future NBA's going to have this ability, which then forces defenses to play spaced as a matter of course, and then the offenses look to take what's given.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5174 » by tsherkin » Thu Jun 15, 2023 7:12 pm

Heej wrote:Guarantee everyone's gonna want a pivot passer/short roll playmaker after this. I thought people would've caught on with Draymond being a foundational piece in the Warriors offense playing that role, but the Splash Brothers shone too brightly. Would be really good for the game if we cycled back to pivot passers being en vogue again.


It certainly highlights that you CAN make good things happen from the post. Maybe not to the same degree as the ATG talent in Denver, of course, but quality passing from the nail or the low post, the elbows, lots of interesting opportunities to open up interior scoring chances.

I completely agree on the 3pa observations. Correct me if I'm wrong but we've essentially hit a plateau as far as 3 point attempts by teams in the last couple years right? I remember seeing that, and it makes sense that we've explored the upper bounds of 3 point chucking and found diminishing returns; thus causing teams to lock in their optimal 3p attempt numbers and attempting to find an edge elsewhere


3PAr

2020: .384
2021: .392
2022: .399
2023: .387

Yep, it looks like a bit of a plateau. There are teams at .480 and higher, of course, so theoretically, the league could still rise, but not everyone is gonna go the Dallas/Boston/Golden State route (.487, .480, and .479 respectively). After them, the next team is at .446, then .423 and we drop down from there pretty quickly. Atlanta is at .331, bottom in the league, and were the 7th-highest ORTG in the RS. Somewhat surprisingly, they were only -1.1 ORTG against Boston, but I guess watching the series, it was getting absolutely obliterated by Boston's offense moreso than not being able to score themselves which got the Hawks into trouble. They are another example of offense unimpeded by the absence of massive 3pt shooting volume.

Doctor MJ wrote:
Indeed, we seem to be finally hitting an equilibrium for pace and an equilibrium for space so far as that is synonymous with 3-point shooting rate. ORtg is still increasing so I don't think the paradigm shift is completed yet, but we may be close.


Indeed. I popped this into the Kareem/Oscar thread, but a quick recap over multiple decades:

Code: Select all

1964: 43.3% FG, 72.2% FT, 94.6 ORTG, 48.5% TS
1974: 45.9% FG, 77.1% FT, 97.7 ORTG, 50.3% TS
1977: 46.5% FG, 75.1% FT, 99.5 ORTG, 51.1% TS
1980: 48.1% FG, 76.4% FT, 105.3 ORTG, 53.1% TS
1990: 47.6% FG, 76.4% FT, 108.1 ORTG, 53.7% TS

2000: 44.9% FG, 75.0% FT, 104.1 ORTG, 52.3% TS
2010: 46.1% FG, 75.9% FT, 107.6 ORTG, 54.3% TS

2020: 46.0% FG, 77.3% FT, 110.6 ORTG, 56.5% TS, 52.9% eFG, .384 3PAr, 22.5% ORB, 35.8% 3P, .201 FT/FGA
2021: 46.6% FG, 77.8% FT, 112.3 ORTG, 57.2% TS, 53.8% eFG, .392 3PAr, 22.2% ORB, 36.7% 3P, .192 FT/FGA
2022: 46.1% FG, 77.5% FT, 112.0 ORTG, 56.6% TS, 53.2% eFG, .399 3PAr, 23.2% ORB, 35.4% 3P, .192 FT/FGA
2023: 47.5% FG, 78.2% FT, 114.8 ORTG, 58.1% TS, 54.5% eFG, .387 3PAr, 24.0% ORB, 36.1% 3P, .208 FT/FGA


That said, I think we know that space is not linearly proportional to 3-point rate, and I think that the big thing is that there's a serious cost to a guy not being a threat from 3, so almost everybody in the future NBA's going to have this ability, which then forces defenses to play spaced as a matter of course, and then the offenses look to take what's given.


Yes, the impact of the three is there even when the actual rate/volume isn't as huge. We're already seeing guys who can't shoot it at a semi-competent level becoming deprecated in the league as it is now.

EDIT: That said, we're also more familiar than in older times of how to help boost a mediocre shooter's chances. Assisted catch-and-shoot looks with limp defensive pressure (or none), lots from the corner, etc. So lots of guys who I wouldn't necessarily have pegged as 36% shooters from 3 are making a transition effectively.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5175 » by parsnips33 » Thu Jun 15, 2023 7:45 pm

Sacramento vastly outperforming expectations this year should also hopefully inspire some copycats
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5176 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 15, 2023 7:56 pm

Random tidbits inspired by KCP. With him being one of the 5 core guys on 2 champions, here are the list of never-all-stars who have done this more than twice:

5 - Robert Horry, Tom Sanders
4 - Derek Fisher, Ron Harper
3 - Michael Cooper, KC Jones, Frank Ramsey

And the list of never-all-stars who have been core-5 guys on two different franchises as champions:

Robert Horry (Rockets, Lakers, Spurs)
Ron Harper (Bulls, Lakers)
Danny Green (Raptors, Lakers - didn't quite make the list as a Spur)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Lakers, Nuggets)

Not too shabby.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5177 » by tsherkin » Thu Jun 15, 2023 8:36 pm

parsnips33 wrote:Sacramento vastly outperforming expectations this year should also hopefully inspire some copycats


They're an interesting one. Tops in the league in 2FG%. Still top 5 in 3PAr, 9th in 3FG%. 7th in FT/FGA. Trash on defense, best O in the league. Very Donn Nelson-ish. 100.3 possessions per game was good for 12th in the league.

Sabonis is good. Fox is good, if a trash 3pt shooter this season. Good roleplayers. Nasty first round out against the Warriors. Their offense fell apart against Golden State and Fox's volume scoring wasn't enough to drive them. Small guys, volume scoring, eh. Not usually a hot option. Trae Young Syndrome isn't quite what happened, Fox wasn't horrid, just not good enough and the rest of the team wasn't hitting 3s. Sabonis withered at the line and in general shot like trash in that series too. They need to find some scoring resiliency and a little more than 3s from their bench guys if that's a model people want to use. But, active POA guard, second-scorer big who passes well and ostensibly has a nice variety of moves and zones from which to operate. It's a sound principle. They upped their ORB game in the playoffs, too, which was nice. Definitely a group to watch.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5178 » by Colbinii » Thu Jun 15, 2023 9:55 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Random tidbits inspired by KCP. With him being one of the 5 core guys on 2 champions, here are the list of never-all-stars who have done this more than twice:

5 - Robert Horry, Tom Sanders
4 - Derek Fisher, Ron Harper
3 - Michael Cooper, KC Jones, Frank Ramsey

And the list of never-all-stars who have been core-5 guys on two different franchises as champions:

Robert Horry (Rockets, Lakers, Spurs)
Ron Harper (Bulls, Lakers)
Danny Green (Raptors, Lakers - didn't quite make the list as a Spur)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Lakers, Nuggets)

Not too shabby.


Danny Green was a core Spur, no?

He started every game in 2013. Most games in 2014 and every post-season game.

Outside if their Top 3 in minutes in the PS [Mind you they were all under 33 MPG in the PS], the next group of 4 were all between 22 and 26 MPG [Manu, Green, Tiago and Diaw].
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5179 » by Heej » Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:10 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Random tidbits inspired by KCP. With him being one of the 5 core guys on 2 champions, here are the list of never-all-stars who have done this more than twice:

5 - Robert Horry, Tom Sanders
4 - Derek Fisher, Ron Harper
3 - Michael Cooper, KC Jones, Frank Ramsey

And the list of never-all-stars who have been core-5 guys on two different franchises as champions:

Robert Horry (Rockets, Lakers, Spurs)
Ron Harper (Bulls, Lakers)
Danny Green (Raptors, Lakers - didn't quite make the list as a Spur)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Lakers, Nuggets)

Not too shabby.

I used to seriously joke that KCP was the 3rd member of the Lakers big 3 in that championship run. He also got the series sealing bucket lol. That man has reached the elite role player level for me. There's not a single team ever that wouldn't appreciate a guy like him in their rotation. To note all the guys you mentioned are legit high IQ 3&D players. Feel like the league is trending away from specialists (for championship teams), and playoff matchups are even more about having fewer weaknesses to exploit than it is about featuring your best strengths now.

Obviously if a 1-way guy is good enough they're gonna see closing minutes but you're playing a dangerous game surrendering an effortless exploit on one end of the floor when teams are better at scheming against it now.
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Re: 2022-23 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5180 » by eminence » Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:20 pm

Colbinii wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Random tidbits inspired by KCP. With him being one of the 5 core guys on 2 champions, here are the list of never-all-stars who have done this more than twice:

5 - Robert Horry, Tom Sanders
4 - Derek Fisher, Ron Harper
3 - Michael Cooper, KC Jones, Frank Ramsey

And the list of never-all-stars who have been core-5 guys on two different franchises as champions:

Robert Horry (Rockets, Lakers, Spurs)
Ron Harper (Bulls, Lakers)
Danny Green (Raptors, Lakers - didn't quite make the list as a Spur)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Lakers, Nuggets)

Not too shabby.


Danny Green was a core Spur, no?

He started every game in 2013. Most games in 2014 and every post-season game.

Outside if their Top 3 in minutes in the PS [Mind you they were all under 33 MPG in the PS], the next group of 4 were all between 22 and 26 MPG [Manu, Green, Tiago and Diaw].


Agreed here, I get the top 5 cut-off, but some flexibility is useful too, and in this particular instance Danny was clearly a core part of the rotation.

On KCP, I appreciate the big 3 joke, and also fully agree he's great and was probably the 3rd best Laker that run, which is a dang quality season from him (and quite impressive for LeBron/AD at the top). Hat's off to KCP.
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