Miami Heat 2023 Off-Season Thread 1.0 - Give them Cancun!!!

[greg4012]

We already in a situation where we are an above upper tax apron team if we fill out a team.

Only way Micky is getting out of that is if he
- Doesn't re-sign any free agents Strus/Gabe/Yurt
- Waive's and stretches Oladipo
- Trades Martin for cap room/pick.
- Signs 6 remaining roster spots to Vet Min/Undrafted guys.

With that we'd only just get below the upper apron and Micky would still be paying a near 30mil tax bill.

We'd be replacing 3 starting players with vet min/undrafted guys.

If Micky plans to go that route, I'd honestly prefer he blow up the team and rebuild if that's the case. No point trying to compete if that's what we doing after getting to the finals.

Whoa we are not in a good place cap wise. Didn't know it was this bad.

Maybe I'm just not following the scenario that you're presenting, but my understanding is that Miami is not currently slated to be past the second apron

For 2023-24, the salary cap is projected to be $134 million, and the luxury tax line is set to be $162 million. The first apron is set at $7 million above the luxury tax level in each season of the CBA (so $169 million for 2023-24) and the second apron is set at $17.5 million above the tax threshold (or $179.5 million). In future seasons, all of those numbers will rise

The 2nd apron is projected to be at $179.5M. Miami's current committed payroll for next season is at $173M (9 players). I know Miami will have to continue to fill out the roster.

So are you communicating that AFTER Miami fills out the roster with bird rights, exception signing, vet mins that they will then be above the 2nd tax apron?

It seems at that point the only real limitation (aside from luxury tax) will be in-season moves such as signing buy-out players or particular in-season trade maneuvers. Does that sound right?

[MettaWorldPanda]

MWP dropping too many uncomfortable truth bombs in this thread. The trade machine is both the best and worst thing - keeps fans engaged, but produces a bunch of hopium-fueled trades that never happen - how many people had the Goebert, KD, Wiseman/GP2, Westbrook/DLo, Kyrie, or Rui trades fired up in the ol' trade machine beforehand? Anyone?

Most of the ones posted remind me of trading basketball cards with friends as a kid. "What if I give you these cards I don't really want (but you should want them!) for your cards that I want! The price guide says they're about equal value, so it's totally fair! Trust me bro!"

We already in a situation where we are an above upper tax apron team if we fill out a team.

Only way Micky is getting out of that is if he
- Doesn't re-sign any free agents Strus/Gabe/Yurt
- Waive's and stretches Oladipo
- Trades Martin for cap room/pick.
- Signs 6 remaining roster spots to Vet Min/Undrafted guys.

With that we'd only just get below the upper apron and Micky would still be paying a near 30mil tax bill.

We'd be replacing 3 starting players with vet min/undrafted guys.

If Micky plans to go that route, I'd honestly prefer he blow up the team and rebuild if that's the case. No point trying to compete if that's what we doing after getting to the finals.

Whoa we are not in a good place cap wise. Didn't know it was this bad.

Yeah it’s the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about because based off history we know Micky is willing to pay as much tax as possible spare no expense right? Same team that let Mike Miller go during the big 3 to save a few bucks lol. Reality is we are 3.8 away from super tax 2nd apron territory. We can easily match Beal’s contract with Herro with either Lowry or Duncan. The issue comes is we need to figure out a way to dump 30 million to gain some real flexibility. It’s either dump Lowry’s contract (30 mil)or dump Robinson and Oladipo’s opt in(combined 28 mil).

[MHeat0279]

Without question the series is still going on. Unless the added rest from taking care of business against Boston allowed us to really dominate

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Sure it can go to 6 or 7. But do we beat them is the question. I'm still leaning on the Denver Nuggets having too much size and scoring options. Not having a big body to cover Jokic was a problem as well.

So what big body can guard Jokic in the nba

How does Embiid fares vs Jokic? if any stats guy here can help?

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Micky is about to shock the world!

[IceColdCubano]

Sure it can go to 6 or 7. But do we beat them is the question. I'm still leaning on the Denver Nuggets having too much size and scoring options. Not having a big body to cover Jokic was a problem as well.

So what big body can guard Jokic in the nba

How does Embiid fares vs Jokic? if any stats guy here can help?

Has literally the same analytics as Bam does outside of rebounding, the difference between them both is:
Bam holds Jokic to his lowest Assist numbers, makes sense due to his ability to cover his passing better on the perimeter.
Embiid holds Jokic to his lowest Rebounding numbers, make sense due to his size to box him out.
On scoring its identical with Bam actually having the better FG% defense but the worse 3P% defense, which is strange given that Bam is smaller than Embiid you would think this would be backwards.

[IceColdCubano]

Micky is about to shock the world!

Lets start pushing for everyone in Miami to start buying any stock Micky is tied to help him cover the extra expense.

[3ammy3uck3ts]

Sure it can go to 6 or 7. But do we beat them is the question. I'm still leaning on the Denver Nuggets having too much size and scoring options. Not having a big body to cover Jokic was a problem as well.

So what big body can guard Jokic in the nba

How does Embiid fares vs Jokic? if any stats guy here can help?

They’ve played 4 games over the last 4 years and Jokic shot 14-23 (61%) from the field. Doesn’t really matter though because like Herro, Embiid is hurt every single playoffs and chokes to the point he’s never even made it out of the 2nd round.

We’re looking for answers in the wrong place, defense wasn’t the issue

[CrossOver]

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[3ammy3uck3ts]

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Barry woke up and went right back to it. He’s pushing the 4 stars narrative hard, which is kind of surprising from him

[MHeat0279]

Do we beat the Nuggets in the finals with a healthy Beal in the lineup? probably no, still too smol.

Without question the series is still going on. Unless the added rest from taking care of business against Boston allowed us to really dominate

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Sure it can go to 6 or 7. But do we beat them is the question. I'm still leaning on the Denver Nuggets having too much size and scoring options. Not having a big body to cover Jokic was a problem as well.

it is correct Jokic almost scored or passed at will, Bam as good as he is at defense doesnt have the size to properly guard the Joker, He is massive and very skillfull so it will be a handfull even for a big guy with good mobility. They are definitely an offensive powerhouse.

[MettaWorldPanda]

All the agents involved between Bartlestein and Schwartz all have great relationships with the Heat and Wiz. If Lowry is traded to the Wiz i’m sure a buyout will be worked out immediately that allows Lowry to retire a Raptor or get to play with the hometown Sixers.

[Grumpy Heat Fan]

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Barry woke up and went right back to it. He’s pushing the 4 stars narrative hard, which is kind of surprising from him

Good. Shoot for both, and when we "only" land 1, we're good.

[CrossOver]

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[Grumpy Heat Fan]

We already in a situation where we are an above upper tax apron team if we fill out a team.

Only way Micky is getting out of that is if he
- Doesn't re-sign any free agents Strus/Gabe/Yurt
- Waive's and stretches Oladipo
- Trades Martin for cap room/pick.
- Signs 6 remaining roster spots to Vet Min/Undrafted guys.

With that we'd only just get below the upper apron and Micky would still be paying a near 30mil tax bill.

We'd be replacing 3 starting players with vet min/undrafted guys.

If Micky plans to go that route, I'd honestly prefer he blow up the team and rebuild if that's the case. No point trying to compete if that's what we doing after getting to the finals.

Whoa we are not in a good place cap wise. Didn't know it was this bad.

Yeah it’s the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about because based off history we know Micky is willing to pay as much tax as possible spare no expense right? Same team that let Mike Miller go during the big 3 to save a few bucks lol. Reality is we are 3.8 away from super tax 2nd apron territory. We can easily match Beal’s contract with Herro with either Lowry or Duncan. The issue comes is we need to figure out a way to dump 30 million to gain some real flexibility. It’s either dump Lowry’s contract (30 mil)or dump Robinson and Oladipo’s opt in(combined 28 mil).

Pat might have to do another one of those blockbuster multi-team deals like in 2005.

[MettaWorldPanda]

Barry Jackson offering up a little hopium crack for engagements. He was mentioning a 206 billion tax bill which he really meant 206 million yesterday basically saying sure there’s an imaginary path to all these stars but when reality sets in this is real life and not 2K. The cap is real and the books are real and throwing money away like this for an owner who’s always showed financial prudence while still being extremely successful makes absolutely zero sense.

[dean456]

How can we even fill the roster if we get both Lilliard and Beal? lol

Vet Mins, Undrafted guys and Two-ways. Contract wise they could potentially get it done while maintaining Jovic and Highsmith. Then you have Jamal Cain and Orlando Robinson that could come in and contribute.

But this would ultimately come with a 100mil tax bill that will increases with every year. It's likely pie in the sky stuff.

Lillard/Vet Min/Undrafted
Beal/Vet Min/Undrafted
Butler/Cain/Undrafted
Jovic/Highsmith/Undrafted
Bam/Robinson/Vet Min

[KingDavid]

How can we even fill the roster if we get both Lilliard and Beal? lol

G-leaguers, vets willing to come for the minimum, etc. It's a pipe dream that I don't see coming to fruition, but it's fun to speculate.

[dean456]

Whoa we are not in a good place cap wise. Didn't know it was this bad.

Maybe I'm just not following the scenario that you're presenting, but my understanding is that Miami is not currently slated to be past the second apron

For 2023-24, the salary cap is projected to be $134 million, and the luxury tax line is set to be $162 million. The first apron is set at $7 million above the luxury tax level in each season of the CBA (so $169 million for 2023-24) and the second apron is set at $17.5 million above the tax threshold (or $179.5 million). In future seasons, all of those numbers will rise

The 2nd apron is projected to be at $179.5M. Miami's current committed payroll for next season is at $173M (9 players). I know Miami will have to continue to fill out the roster.

So are you communicating that AFTER Miami fills out the roster with bird rights, exception signing, vet mins that they will then be above the 2nd tax apron?

It seems at that point the only real limitation (aside from luxury tax) will be in-season moves such as signing buy-out players or particular in-season trade maneuvers. Does that sound right?

Correct, even with just vet mins on the final 5 roster spots would take us past the second apron.

Penalties for exceeding the second apron include the loss of the midlevel exception, a ban on including cash as part of trades and the inability to accept more salary in a trade than the team sends out. Teams in the second apron will also be unable to aggregate salary in trades and cannot trade first-round picks seven years in the future or sign players on the buyout market. Also, if a team exceeds the second apron and remains there in one of the four subsequent years, its draft pick will get moved to the end of the first round.

[MettaWorldPanda]

How can we even fill the roster if we get both Lilliard and Beal? lol

G-leaguers, vets willing to come for the minimum, etc. It's a pipe dream that I don't see coming to fruition, but it's fun to speculate.

All those vet minimum deals would be taxed at like MLE money if over the 2nd apron. Fun to speculate but dungeons and dragons fun speculation

[3ammy3uck3ts]

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