What a great playoff run from Jokic! Really fun to watch.

I’ve been high on Jokic for a while (I helped vote in 2022 Jokic as the 16th greatest peak in the latest peaks project). But I’m also high on Curry.
Part 1: impact metrics may favor CurrySince both these players come from the same era and have (mostly available) impact metrics, it might be worth trying a statistical comparison. For what it’s worth, Curry looks slightly better in many of our metrics, although it’s not universal.
EPM and DPM/DARKO are commonly considered two of the best one-number metric we have, based on people working in the NBA and based on how well they correlate with wins (
https://www.cryptbeam.com/2021/05/21/the-10-best-nba-impact-metrics/,
https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/,
https://www.nbastuffer.com/analytics101/darko-daily-plus-minus/). Which do these all-in-one metrics favor?
-EPM favors Curry: Curry (8.9 in 2015, 10.5 in 2016, 8.2 in 2017; 9.2 average) > Jokic (7.9 in 2021, 9.3 in 2022, 7.9 in 2023; 8.4 average)
-DARKO favors Curry: Curry (7.1, 7.8, 8; 7.6 average) > Jokic (4.9, 5.5, 7.1; 5.8 average)
Some people prefer simpler impact metrics like
On-Off/RAPM/PIPM. They’re a bit less of a black box — they just measure impact in a given role/context (unadjusted for teammates, adjusted for teammates/outlier values, and adjusting for luck). Who do they prefer?
-On/off favors Curry: Curry (20.10 average) > Jokic (16.18)
-RAPM favors Curry: Curry (8.13 average) > Jokic (6.6 average) (RAPM source:
http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm3?id=507996595)
-PIPM: 15-17 Curry looks better than every Jokic season we have… but we only have until half way through 2021, so PIPM doesn’t really help.
What about
playoff-only stats? I don’t have playoff-only EPM/DARKO/RAPM/PIPM, so we need to look at other statistics. I still have on-off, LEBRON is a highly rated all-in-one playoff metric that's available, and AuPM is specifically designed to measure impact like RAPM does but be more accurate in smaller sample sizes like the playoffs.
-Playoff On/off favors Curry (6.71) > Jokic (-3.97)
-Playoff LEBRON favors Curry: Curry (4.93) > Jokic (1.96 in 2020-2022; I expect this to rise quite a bit once 2023 becomes available, but it’s statistically unlikely it will rise enough to change the ranking)
-Playoff AuPM favors Jokic (but 17 Curry is higher than any Jokic year, and Curry pulls ahead if we substitute either of the surrounding healthy playoff runs in 14 or 18 for the injured 2016 run).
This isn’t to say every metric favors Curry. BPM favors Jokic in both the regular season and playoffs, as does fivethirtyeight’s RAPTOR (though not by much in the playoffs). WOWY paints Curry as GOAT level, but we don’t have enough of a WOWY sample for Jokic. And again we're missing some stats for Jokic.
If you happen to value to value the box metrics or the fewer impact metrics that prefer Jokic (like RAPTOR), that’s fine — but most metrics I've seen seem to favor (healthy) Curry over Jokic. Feel free to let me know if I've missed any metrics! From an impact perspective, Curry’s postseason injuries seem like the biggest con to his argument. Eminence pointed out Curry actually played a greater percentage of his games than Jokic during their peak span (which I actually didn’t realize given their reputation!), but more of Curry’s injuries came in the playoffs. Some may argue playoff injuries are more concerning than regular season injuries, and this may be true from championship odds perspective.
Part 2: team building may favor CurryI wonder how both compare from a team building perspective.
Offensively, Curry’s unique combination of on and off-ball play makes him one of the candidates for GOAT offensive scalability — he’d pair great with any other star. But Jokic is no slouch here. His screening, rebounding, spacing, and passing should pair pretty well with most stars too.
I’m more interested in team building from a defensive perspective.
How reasonable is it to build a championship level defense with Jokic compared to Curry?I’m genuinely interested in hearing people’s thoughts on this. My current take: this narrative that Jokic is a net negative defender against an average opponent has been measurably false for a while now. He has some of the best hands in the league, great defensive rebounding, with solid positioning/awareness when he has the motor and speed to get there. However, he’s a below average rim protector at the center position. He struggles against perimeter quickness. Strong three point shooters can punish his drop coverage and lack of agility on switches. But Curry also struggles defensively when forced into mismatches and when forced to defend strong isolation offensive stars. Which is worse?
Defensive weaknesses limiting team defense: One way to look at this would be to look at the change in their team’s defense rating vs bad matchups. But Curry has better defensive teammates! So let’s look at the change in relative defensive rating, which should correct for this.
The results? Jokic’s weakness to high volume pick and roll shooting (e.g. vs 2021 Suns and 2022 Warriors) seems to cause a greater decline in his team’s defensive ratings vs Curry’s weakness to iso/mismatch offenses (e.g. vs Cavs or 18 Rockets). Check out the change in their team’s relative defensive rating when going against bad matchups for Jokic and Curry:
-Nuggets vs 2021 suns: from 0.1 rDRTG RS average to -7.1 rDRTG (decline of 7.0 rDRTG)
-Nuggets vs 2022 warriors: -0.2 rDRTG RS average to -10.4 rDRTG (decline of 10.2 rDRTG)
-Warriors vs 2017 Cavs: from 4.8 rDRTG RS average to -0.4 rDRTG (decline of 4.4 rDRTG)
-Warriors vs 2018 Rockets: 1.0 rDRTG RS average to 0.8 rDRTG (decline of 0.2 rDRTG)*
*only including first 5 games for Rockets when CP3 is healthy.
This is a noisy measurement -- alone, it's not enough to favor Curry over Jokic defensively. But opponents’ offenses do seem to cause a much greater decline in their team defense when picking on Jokic’s weaknesses compared to when picking on Curry’s weaknesses.
Can you build strong team defenses around them? This year’s Nuggets are a good example of how to build a positive defense around Jokic, with an emphasis on versatility, good communication, and help principles. They were average in the regular season (15/30) and good in the playoffs (4/16), although they did not face any particularly bad matchups that tested Jokic with perimeter speed or strong on-ball pick and roll 3 point shooting this year.
But! While you can build a good defense around Jokic, I believe it’s harder to build a *great* defense with Jokic compared to Curry.
Jokic's defense may be worse than Curry's relative to position. Jokic occupies the center position, where it’s easiest to find defensive value. It’s harder to build a good defensive team if you have a neutral/slight positive defender at the center position vs if you have a neutral/slight positive defender at the guard position. Most defensive lineups with Jokic will have to live with poorer rim protection and a weakness against volume 3 point shooting. While you might help the rim protection by going with a twin towers lineup, this would likely come at the cost of the offense (what rim protectors can also spread the floor and cut to the basket off-ball, like you’d want from Jokic’s ideal offensive teammate?) or possibly make you more susceptible to 3 point shooting (how many rim protectors without those offensive flaws are also good perimeter defenders?).
And this shows in the team results. Curry has been a positive contributor to a defensive dynasty.
The Warriors had an above-average defensive rating all 9 years of Curry’s healthy prime (2014-2019, 2021-2023), and have been a top 5 defense in 6/9 years. Yes, this obviously is dependent on Curry’s teammates too. But it gives credence to the idea that you can build a strong defensive team that includes massive minutes for Curry. It seems less likely to build a realistic lineup that could consistently be a Top 5 defense that includes Jokic at center.
So from a scalability/team-building perspective, you’d have to believe Jokic’s offensive lift is great enough to make up for the possible defensive weaknesses. Given how the impact metrics favor Curry overall, this seems like another point in Curry’s favor.
But I’m open to being proved wrong! I’d love see a healthy 2024 Denver Nuggets be successful defensively (or that much more successful offensively) against some harder playoff matchups. If 2024 Jokic starts to seem like less of a liability against perimeter speed or pick and roll shooting, that would absolutely help assuage my concerns. Thoughts?