2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#661 » by AEnigma » Thu Jun 15, 2023 12:49 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:it seems overly persnickety to object as a runner to stuff like this when I know guys have gotten the EOY based on perspectives like this.

I think with AEnigma's post, what popped out to me was the specific reference to Jimmy Butler in a list of moves, because I know how prominent that move was in getting Riley the EOY in 2020...which was kinda the "plan comes together" year for the Heat know that I ponder it with our current discussion in mind.

Perhaps there's an inconsistency in my approach here, and if there is, I apologize. I want to be clear though that I have no fundamental problem with someone voting for Riley for EOY this year, I just think it's critical to use arguments that are not evergreen.

Which is all reasonable, and I suppose this is why I should have fully written out my explanation rather than just coldly listing the transactions involved in this Finals team.

Nevertheless, for me there is always an element of: is it better to be responsible for a player being on the team? I say yes, which is why I think hypothetically someone like Connolly could have been a better choice than Booth (again, overpaying for a player who has not fit well is disqualifying for me, but if that had not happened…). This year I am primarily praising how previous lesser roleplayers like Vincent, Strus, and Martin became key to a Finals run, and how those players were all overlooked by every other executive. If it were a Connolly/Booth situation, then I could not say that Riley built a Finals team, could I?

No, Riley does not win every year for the Butler sign&trade, just like Pelinka does not win every year for Lebron and Davis being there, and just like Myers does not win every year for drafting a dynasty core. However, we can in perpetuity say that those players were not brought in by anyone else. Again, on me for not offering any explanation in the original post, so I understand questioning the thought, but all I was trying to show (for future thread readers who may forget) was that Riley was the one who built that Finals team. He was not adding Vincent and Strus and Martin to an established core of Butler and Bam, or a preexisting Finals rotation in Herro and Robinson. Every player there is present because Pat Riley pursued them and actively moved for them when no one else really did, and on that, yes, to an extent he will have that in perpetuity, even if he does not have my vote in perpetuity. If the Heat return to the Finals with the same core, I will not vote for him again… but if they return with Bradley Beal, then I will not only be thinking about that singular move for Beal.

Riley has arguably been the most capable GM in the league non-stop for the last 20+ years...but it's not every year that he's a big EOY candidate. So if he is this year, why this year?

Because of the growth of Martin, Strus, and Vincent into key players, because of the comparative advantage Riley had in signing those guys with minimal competition from anyone else, and because Riley is responsible for every piece of a Finals team. Oh, and Kevin Love paid off, but there I think that was more a case of Love individually pursuing a veteran playoff team in dire need of a power forward. As a point of comparison, last year, the Lowry sign&trade was a “bigger” move than any of that, and the Vincent/Strus/Martin signings were all more immediate. However, the pay-off was lesser — exited in the conference finals — as were the returns on those latter three.

I think I said I would not have voted last year. The title winner was Bob Myers, but the main difference for them was that Klay and GP2 became healthy, the Otto Porter health gamble paid off, and much like Pelinka the team was no longer being dragged down by Myers’s own bad pickups in Oubre and Wiseman. Yeah, there is credit for Wiggins paying off (but I already thought he was good in 2021, and imo the Wolves dumbly bailed them out on Russell), and for Otto, and for GP2, but even with all of that, I am in the camp of “had the Warriors simply devoted less time to Wiseman and Oubre in 2021, they would have been securely in the playoffs rather than in a risky play-in.” That passive core credit plus the Otto addition could maybe get him on the ballot anyway, but I see that as a much more contentious path than with Riley.

The Celtics were the Finals runner-up. Stevens traded for Derrick Jones, Jr., which was good. Traded for Horford to come back (and got off the Kemba contract), which was good. And hired Udoka to replace himself lol, which was good for one-year title contention and would have looked like a long-term move at the time of voting. Still, he was not the guy responsible for Tatum, or Brown, or Smart, or Timelord, so only so much of that is on him. Those moves were significant enough to make the ballot, but still we have the cloud of it not being his team.

The Mavericks were the other conference finalist. Harrison was a first-year executive and therefore only was responsible for the Kidd hiring (…) and the Porzingis/Dinwiddie swap (…). Nope. The Suns were the other conference 1-seed; saw how that went (although Jones would have been on my ballot the year before). Horst did not do much for the Bucks that year. Morey traded Simmons for Harden, so that was great, but every other part of the roster was not his. Finally, the official league award winner, Kleiman, traded for Adams and was the instrument behind the entire roster; given that he won, do we think voters were considering more than solely that Adams trade?

Being the person responsible for the team’s composition matters, and it puts a ceiling on guys like 2022 Stevens and Morey (or this year, Booth) who only added to a preexisting roster. That is offset in part by being responsible for bad moves that need to be undone or otherwise overcome (Myers in 2022, Pelinka this year). Riley is not top of my ballot this year for signing Butler and drafting Bam several years ago, but he would not be on the ballot at all if they were there independently of Riley. After a postseason where everyone incessantly talked about “Heat culture”, I have no qualms recognising the man who built that culture.

Let me ask: How do you think NBA EOY voters would deal with this? along with, What basis leads you to this conclusion?

I don't want to be constraining voters into a much smaller box than is typically allowed for EOY voters, and so if I am, then I should loosen up.

For my deliberately absurd hypothetical, well, it depends. For that hypothetical executive to win, I think they would need to have nearly no competition at all from anyone else. For them to be on several ballots though? I think with a much larger and more ideologically diverse voting body, yes, I would expect several people to arrive at the same conclusion, but I will acknowledge there does seem to be an implicit standard to treat the award as “Executive (for their team) of the Year”. I do not mind if you stipulate that people only consider actions for one specific team, but your reasoning should not be lack of clear precedent or whether hypothetically anyone of dozens of official NBA award voters might have voted that way, because the official ballots are substantially more willing to diverge from consensus than anyone here (never forget the MVP ballots for 2021 Derrick Rose).

On that note, while I tend to align with Colbinii on Ainge — acquiring picks itself is only part of a process — if I were to vote for Ainge this season, a large part of that vote would be based on Ainge separately being the primary architect of a separate conference finalist this season. I know Ainge is a top five executive, so I can trust those unrealised picks are likely to convey into something of value, and I can trust the Kessler/Markkanen trades were not only a matter of unexpected fortune. History is essential to this award, and when I eventually do vote for Ainge in a future season, I will be keeping in mind how he picked up all these assets in 2022-23.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#662 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 15, 2023 3:17 pm

AEnigma wrote:
Riley has arguably been the most capable GM in the league non-stop for the last 20+ years...but it's not every year that he's a big EOY candidate. So if he is this year, why this year?


Because of the growth of Martin, Strus, and Vincent into key players, because of the comparative advantage Riley had in signing those guys with minimal competition from anyone else, and because Riley is responsible for every piece of a Finals team. Oh, and Kevin Love paid off, but there I think that was more a case of Love individually pursuing a veteran playoff team in dire need of a power forward.


Other good thoughts, but I wanted to single this out and say: Awesome, this is all I really need to feel confident you're thinking about '22-23. :wordyo:

AEnigma wrote:I will acknowledge there does seem to be an implicit standard to treat the award as “Executive (for their team) of the Year”. I do not mind if you stipulate that people only consider actions for one specific team, but your reasoning should not be lack of clear precedent or whether hypothetically anyone of dozens of official NBA award voters might have voted that way, because the official ballots are substantially more willing to diverge from consensus than anyone here (never forget the MVP ballots for 2021 Derrick Rose).

On that note, while I tend to align with Colbinii on Ainge — acquiring picks itself is only part of a process — if I were to vote for Ainge this season, a large part of that vote would be based on Ainge separately being the primary architect of a separate conference finalist this season. I know Ainge is a top five executive, so I can trust those unrealised picks are likely to convey into something of value, and I can trust the Kessler/Markkanen trades were not only a matter of unexpected fortune. History is essential to this award, and when I eventually do vote for Ainge in a future season, I will be keeping in mind how he picked up all these assets in 2022-23.


So on the first paragraph: To be clear, I'm not looking to define EOY primarily based on specific precedents. To me EOY is about the most impressive GM performance of that year, and that's pretty simple. I ask about precedents for evidence that my interpretation of EOY is off the mark.

Re: Bringing up the context around Ainge is a good example to ponder. As someone who is probably going to vote Ainge #1, how is his Boston work factoring in? I think there's a "benefit of the doubt" thing going on. Is it possible it was dumb luck unrelated to Ainge that Markkanen and Kessler impressed so much? Sure, and if that's truly the case Ainge wouldn't be the guy I think deserves EOY. But do I think it more likely that Ainge saw something in these guys that others did not? I do, and that impresses me.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#663 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 15, 2023 5:42 pm

Thoughts on Evan Mobley as DPOY candidate? I do think AD & JJJ are better at their best, but how far behind do you think Mobley is? Do you have major concerns about him compared to the established elite?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#664 » by AEnigma » Thu Jun 15, 2023 6:38 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Thoughts on Evan Mobley as DPOY candidate?

I think you are trying to be a bit too ahead of the curve with him but I understand having him on the ballot and giving him credit for time played and calibre of defence anchored.

I do think AD & JJJ are better at their best, but how far behind do you think Mobley is?

Behind Davis, pretty sizeably in a playoff situation. But that comes with experience. 2015 Davis was great and better than Mobley in my eyes, but he was not at the defensive level Davis showed this year (or in 2020).

Behind JJJ, well, there is a substantial gap in rim protection, but if Mobley looks better than him in next year’s postseason, I would not be stunned, because JJJ does not have the mental advantage guys like Davis or Draymond do.

Do you have major concerns about him compared to the established elite?

Concerns, no; I just do not see what he does better. Would the Heat have a better postseason defence this year with him in place of Bam? Possible, but I do not think so, and that to me would be his starting point, because I do not have Bam on my ballot either. So he can have my honourable mention for playing a hundred minutes more and for anchoring the league’s #1 defence and for holding up fine in the playoffs, but he is not yet at the level where he is a top three defensive big for me in a postseason draft.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#665 » by rk2023 » Thu Jun 15, 2023 6:38 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Thoughts on Evan Mobley as DPOY candidate? I do think AD & JJJ are better at their best, but how far behind do you think Mobley is? Do you have major concerns about him compared to the established elite?


I'm deciding between him and Green for the third spot at the moment. I think Green's high-end is better (so same logic), but Mobley perhaps did more through the regular season in aggregate due to motor (iirc, wins added through LEBRON validates this). I liked Mobley's defense a lot this post-season, albeit against a flawed opponent. I think Green may have had the better performance in aggregate for the PS however, when considering he led the force (sans the game he was suspended) in thwarting a potent Kings offense and making their life miserable in the half-court to the tune of only a 94 offensive rating (h/t Synergy). In our 2nd round series against Golden State, I think Green impact was less potent game-in and game-out but feel like he had some incredible spurts there too.

With the logic I mentioned in my POTY selections, feeling like I'll take Davis at 1 confidently - with Jackson Jr and Green as the other two. I won't do so before confidently ruling out Mobley/Adebayo, that said.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#666 » by MyUniBroDavis » Thu Jun 15, 2023 7:07 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Thoughts on Evan Mobley as DPOY candidate? I do think AD & JJJ are better at their best, but how far behind do you think Mobley is? Do you have major concerns about him compared to the established elite?


AD at his best was substantially better than anyone else this year I think, the Lakers offense wasn’t particularly great or effective and he was a part of that, but defense basically got them to the WCF in the first place and it’s not as if the Lakers have a defensive monster squad or anything (it must be said, Vando was extremely overrated based off one game and was a negative defensive player this playoffs with his deployment and limitations, Dennis and bron were good, Rui in R1 was good, and Reaves was solid) and while his defense on Jokic in one on one situations was bad he was a pretty key part of a gameplan that was pretty successful slowing him down relative to other series, although his rim protection in general wasn’t as good in the WCF against some other guys, where the defense failed was defending jamal

It’s partially because more contact is allowed and AD is pretty good in that situation
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#667 » by eminence » Thu Jun 15, 2023 7:18 pm

I don't do awards other than POY, but I would not be putting Green on a DPOY ballot. The Kings series as his crowning jewel looks terrible with the Warriors having their best defensive game with him suspended.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#668 » by AEnigma » Thu Jun 15, 2023 9:20 pm

eminence wrote:I don't do awards other than POY, but I would not be putting Green on a DPOY ballot. The Kings series as his crowning jewel looks terrible with the Warriors having their best defensive game with him suspended.

Do you have a specific criticism of his defence and how exactly he fell off relative to a regular season where he was by far the best defensive player on the Warriors?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#669 » by eminence » Thu Jun 15, 2023 9:49 pm

AEnigma wrote:
eminence wrote:I don't do awards other than POY, but I would not be putting Green on a DPOY ballot. The Kings series as his crowning jewel looks terrible with the Warriors having their best defensive game with him suspended.

Do you have a specific criticism of his defence and how exactly he fell off relative to a regular season where he was by far the best defensive player on the Warriors?


Dray was very good on defense this season, and if one had him as a strong contender for DPOY prior to the playoffs I get mentioning him - but I don’t believe that to be the norm. His playoff performance should not be moving him up anyones charts as it usually would and I object to the characterization of him heading the charge on defense vs the Kings - he was suspended when they turned their defense around. Being by far the RS best on that cast is not exactly much of a feat, the comp is what, Looney/DD/Curry?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#670 » by AEnigma » Thu Jun 15, 2023 10:24 pm

You did not answer the question though. You like to talk about small playoff sample sizes but apparently not in this instance — and that would be fine if you thought he played demonstrably worse or became some sort of weakness in a way not true in the regular season, but right now that is not what you are indicating.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#671 » by eminence » Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:00 pm

AEnigma wrote:You did not answer the question though. You like to talk about small playoff sample sizes but apparently not in this instance — and that would be fine if you thought he played demonstrably worse or became some sort of weakness in a way not true in the regular season, but right now that is not what you are indicating.


I don't think Dray fell of relative to his RS, nor did I indicate that (quote and bold if you feel differently). I specifically said I didn't feel Dray deserved 'moving up' for his playoff play. That in no way implies he should be moved down. I don't think his RS was DPOY worthy, and certainly don't believe he led the charge against the Kings, as he was suspended on the bench when the Warriors 'charged'.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#672 » by AEnigma » Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:18 pm

I am not sure who has used the term “led the charge,” but if you do not think he dropped off, then yes I think that functionally means he was still the team’s best defender barring a specific assertion to the contrary. You say most people did not have him playing at a DPoY level in the regular season, but there have been several responses to the contrary in this thread. If you disagree that he was qualifiedly good, for reasons distinct from minutes played (I will note he played significantly more than Davis and JJJ…), then make the case. Otherwise, what are you really arguing.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#673 » by AEnigma » Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:24 pm

Colbinii wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:[DPoY:] For me its Draymond and JJJ and then everyone else. I really respect BroLo and Giannis (and Jrue) but because they have 3 absolutely elite defenders its hard for me to parse out individual credit, which may mean I'm unfairly penalizing them, but not sure how I get around that.

Would have given JJJ the edge despite the 10 fewer games in the RS, but it sure feels like Draymond is going to advance and JJJ isn't. And while I don't think Draymond has been consistently the defensive force we know him as, he's going to get the benefit of the doubt from me that we will continue to see him impact series in a major way.

If I had to vote today, JJJ. But I think Draymond may get him by the end.

And AD just is too inconsistent defensively (and missed a bunch more games). I get when he's motivated to defend, he's as good as anyone in the league. He's been great in the playoffs. But I can't give it to a guy who turns the motor up this infrequently. In fact it kind of hurts him with me because it shows how much more impact he could have had in the regular season if he was willing to grind. But he's just not willing(or able?) to do that.

Food for thought:

The Lakers posted a 111.6 Drtg with AD on the court in 1868 minutes.
The Grizzles posted a 109.6 Drtg with JJJ on the court in 1764 minutes.

EPM has JJJ at +3.0 DEPM [99th percentile]
EPM has AD at +2.5 DEPM [98th percentile]

The Warriors posted a 111.6 Drtg with Dray in 2299 minutes.
EPM has Dray at +3.0 DEPM [99th percentile]

At this point it is clearly Draymond > JJJ/AD. JJJ and AD are neck-and-neck but Draymond is very clearly ahead of both of them. Draymond also leads in Net-On/Off for Dtrg.

Draymond also finished fourth in official voting, and when constructing a ballot after the postseason, seems fair to say Davis is more likely to replace Brook than he is to replace Draymond (or fifth place finisher Bam). This is not some sudden or unpopular narrative; people have talked about this for months.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#674 » by eminence » Thu Jun 15, 2023 11:49 pm

AEnigma wrote:I am not sure who has used the term “led the charge,” but if you do not think he dropped off, then yes I think that functionally means he was still the team’s best defender barring a specific assertion to the contrary. You say most people did not have him playing at a DPoY level in the regular season, but there have been several responses to the contrary in this thread. If you disagree that he was qualifiedly good, for reasons distinct from minutes played (I will note he played significantly more than Davis and JJJ…), then make the case. Otherwise, what are you really arguing.


I'm arguing against using his PO play to elevate his RS position, which was done two posts up from my initial reply (rk2023, whose posting I quite enjoy). That's the argument, what are you not seeing here?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#675 » by iggymcfrack » Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:48 am

eminence wrote:
AEnigma wrote:I am not sure who has used the term “led the charge,” but if you do not think he dropped off, then yes I think that functionally means he was still the team’s best defender barring a specific assertion to the contrary. You say most people did not have him playing at a DPoY level in the regular season, but there have been several responses to the contrary in this thread. If you disagree that he was qualifiedly good, for reasons distinct from minutes played (I will note he played significantly more than Davis and JJJ…), then make the case. Otherwise, what are you really arguing.


I'm arguing against using his PO play to elevate his RS position, which was done two posts up from my initial reply (rk2023, whose posting I quite enjoy). That's the argument, what are you not seeing here?


Did any of the candidates really have a good postseason with the obvious exception of Davis? Seems like the playoffs lowered all their stock.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#676 » by eminence » Fri Jun 16, 2023 12:56 am

iggymcfrack wrote:Did any of the candidates really have a good postseason with the obvious exception of Davis? Seems like the playoffs lowered all their stock.


I thought so I guess.

Davis/JJJ/Bam all elevated their stock for me, Mobley/Dray more constant, Brook fell off, Giannis got an incomplete.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#677 » by AEnigma » Fri Jun 16, 2023 2:10 am

eminence wrote:
AEnigma wrote:I am not sure who has used the term “led the charge,” but if you do not think he dropped off, then yes I think that functionally means he was still the team’s best defender barring a specific assertion to the contrary. You say most people did not have him playing at a DPoY level in the regular season, but there have been several responses to the contrary in this thread. If you disagree that he was qualifiedly good, for reasons distinct from minutes played (I will note he played significantly more than Davis and JJJ…), then make the case. Otherwise, what are you really arguing.

I'm arguing against using his PO play to elevate his RS position, which was done two posts up from my initial reply (rk2023, whose posting I quite enjoy). That's the argument, what are you not seeing here?

Probably how, given that you are already acknowledging you think Draymond was just as good in the postseason as he was in the regular season (where he was one of the most valuable defenders in the league and pretty much the sole force behind any Warriors defensive competence), this:
I would not be putting Green on a DPOY ballot.

… connects to any particular degree with this:
rk2023 wrote:I think Green may have had the better performance [than Mobley] in aggregate for the PS however, when considering he led the force (sans the game he was suspended) in thwarting a potent Kings offense and making their life miserable in the half-court to the tune of only a 94 offensive rating (h/t Synergy).
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#678 » by MyUniBroDavis » Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:52 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
eminence wrote:
AEnigma wrote:I am not sure who has used the term “led the charge,” but if you do not think he dropped off, then yes I think that functionally means he was still the team’s best defender barring a specific assertion to the contrary. You say most people did not have him playing at a DPoY level in the regular season, but there have been several responses to the contrary in this thread. If you disagree that he was qualifiedly good, for reasons distinct from minutes played (I will note he played significantly more than Davis and JJJ…), then make the case. Otherwise, what are you really arguing.


I'm arguing against using his PO play to elevate his RS position, which was done two posts up from my initial reply (rk2023, whose posting I quite enjoy). That's the argument, what are you not seeing here?


Did any of the candidates really have a good postseason with the obvious exception of Davis? Seems like the playoffs lowered all their stock.


JJJ and tillman kind of had us in hell ngl, although the Lakers offense was putrid throughout

Jjj is a DPOY deserving caliber guy to me
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#679 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Jun 16, 2023 5:52 pm

eminence wrote:I don't do awards other than POY, but I would not be putting Green on a DPOY ballot. The Kings series as his crowning jewel looks terrible with the Warriors having their best defensive game with him suspended.


One game literally means nothing though. We've seen other teams rise up without a star for a game. Not sure how a game he didn't play in says anything about his defense one way or the other. Just means his team got the job done without him for a night.

Unless you somehow believe Draymond Green is a detriment to the Warriors defense at this point, but I don't see any justification for that position at all.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#680 » by 70sFan » Fri Jun 16, 2023 6:37 pm

I get that the Heat went bonkers against the Bucks, but is there any specific reason why nobody considers Lopez for DPOY? Not saying he should win it (he wouldn't be my choice, Davis and JJJ are better choices), but when I watched the Heat series, I have never thought "wow, Miami exposed Lopez badly". He usually played very well in my opinion.

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