PistolPeteJR wrote: I think as time elapses and more and more guys in the top-10 have more and more rings (realistically, someone would have to be absolutely, mindblowingly out of this world and only having won a ring, let alone zero to break the top-10 at this point), the top-10 will be void of the “ringless” attributing, maybe even only one ring.
Well as we go I think we are getting less and less of a consensus top 10. Even now I think its become maybe a consensus top 7 or 8. Because not only are analytic heavy types putting KG in and Kobe fans putting him but there's also Steph(who can check the rings box), KD to a lesser degree(younger fans sometimes have him in there) and soon I think Giannis and Jokic will be getting top 10 talk by those who are more about top 5-6 seasons). Analytics has helped to move things away from purely ring based criteria. Where that leaves KG idk.
dygaction wrote:You can say KG underachieved in his career which was not his fault but also should not hypothetically pump up his value. Nobody gave Bird/Magic the benefit of doubt of not getting hurt or ill.
Being injury prone is directly related to a player's value. Being drafted by the worst franchise of all time because of the way some ping pong balls bounced is not related to a player's value. For his career, the Wolves played the equivalent of 18 win rate without Garnett and 52 win rate with him - what more do you want? It's funny because you said it yourself that it "was not his fault" and yet you can't wrap your head around not using something that was not his fault in your player evaluations. It's like blaming a sprinter for his teammate messing up the relay race and equating it to a sprinter himself messing up the race because of injuries.
The fact that you think people hypothetically pump up Garnett's value because he was on a bad team says it all. There is nothing hypothetical about Garnett's value. Just because he was on a garbage team does not mean he had little value. If a sprinter ran a great race but another teammate dropped the baton and the relay team finished last, he still ran a great race regardless. It does not require any hypothetical pumping up of his performance to say he ran a great race. You, on the other hand, are penalizing a sprinter for his teammate's failure and saying he ran a poor race because his team finished poorly, without looking at how he actually performed himself.
KG is always going to be a big enigma to those who don't want to deep dive. Give it another 5-10 years (it's already taken shape though to be honest), and I think the disrespect for him will grow. Deep divers will point to his defensive ATGness as the key to him, and the opposition will probably compare him to Russell in the sense that it'll become a "rings" anti-argument; in their minds, 1 vs 11, ergo, nowhere near top-10/15.
Now, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying KG and Russell cancel each other out on that end or as players; I just mean that non-basic boxscore impact and a non-aesthetically pleasing game will always echo silence in the ears of casual fans. As a result, instead of being seen as a top-15 ATG, KG will drop further down over time not because of the greater pool of players that will surpass him (even though that's a variable to consider as well, separate thing though), but because of the lack of understanding.
Not lack of understanding, but how the world operates. He just did not win enough, personal accolades or team success. Its unfortunate but sports are very cruel. Many kids can number the presidents from G. Washington all the way to Biden. How many people know the top 3 presidential candidates that narrowly lost their campaigns? You can say KG underachieved in his career which was not his fault but also should not hypothetically pump up his value. Nobody gave Bird/Magic the benefit of doubt of not getting hurt or ill.
But KG basically was the president. He was the best player in the league in 2008 on a team that won the championship. As for "not winning enough", it's all how you look at it. For his career, he had an on/off of +11.3 in the regular season and +14.5 in the playoffs. That's a lot of winning!!! By being on the floor, he improved his teams more than almost anyone in the history of the league. Sure, you could ignore teammates, ignore the situation, and count rings, but if that's really how people judged things, Robert Horry would be considered one of the best players of the modern era. No one really does that. People decide how much credit to give someone in each case. KG's a champion who consistently elevated his teams more than almost anyone in the history of the game which leaves him as a clear top 10 player in my book.
Correction: A LOT of people do that (including nearly all casual fans).
Not saying that makes it "right", mind you. Just sayin'.......might be more accurate to say, "No one really should be doing that" [but they still do].
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd "Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
PistolPeteJR wrote: I think as time elapses and more and more guys in the top-10 have more and more rings (realistically, someone would have to be absolutely, mindblowingly out of this world and only having won a ring, let alone zero to break the top-10 at this point), the top-10 will be void of the “ringless” attributing, maybe even only one ring.
Well as we go I think we are getting less and less of a consensus top 10. Even now I think its become maybe a consensus top 7 or 8. Because not only are analytic heavy types putting KG in and Kobe fans putting him but there's also Steph(who can check the rings box), KD to a lesser degree(younger fans sometimes have him in there) and soon I think Giannis and Jokic will be getting top 10 talk by those who are more about top 5-6 seasons). Analytics has helped to move things away from purely ring based criteria. Where that leaves KG idk.
There will never be a consensus top-10. Heck, we don’t even have a consensus top-3 (RealGM’s PC board consensus doesn’t count lol, even though to me (a non-casual) it’s definitely much more respected). Heck, you’ve got people trying to put Jokic at top-10 after this year. Come on…
I don’t see any argument for KD at all and think it unreasonable to even consider him there, and I personally don’t see Curry in the top-10 yet with any argument you make. I just can’t see him above:
James Jordan KAJ Duncan Russell Wilt Duncan Shaq Magic Hakeem Bird Garnett Kobe
And then there are a few others I don’t see him over yet but an argument can be made:
Oscar West
And finally, for me, he’s in the M.Malone, Dr.J, Dirk-tier.
PistolPeteJR wrote: There will never be a consensus top-10. Heck, we don’t even have a consensus top-3 (RealGM’s PC board consensus doesn’t count lol, even though to me (a non-casual) it’s definitely much more respected). Heck, you’ve got people trying to put Jokic at top-10 after this year. Come on…
I don’t see any argument for KD at all and think it unreasonable to even consider him there, and I personally don’t see Curry in the top-10 yet with any argument you make. I just can’t see him above:
Well two things, 1. I would say there was close to a consensus top 10 for the last 10-12 years with Kobe only being in it due to a huge fanbase(even espn when they did their biggest top 100 project after he retired had him at 15 then decided to do another after he died and put him at 8). 2. I think its easier to have a consensus top 10 than it was a top 3 because how talented the top 10 group is. I don't see any argument for KD either but just based on what I've been seeing a lot of younger fans have trouble including guys from before the 80's on their lists.
dygaction wrote:You can say KG underachieved in his career which was not his fault but also should not hypothetically pump up his value. Nobody gave Bird/Magic the benefit of doubt of not getting hurt or ill.
Being injury prone is directly related to a player's value. Being drafted by the worst franchise of all time because of the way some ping pong balls bounced is not related to a player's value. For his career, the Wolves played the equivalent of 18 win rate without Garnett and 52 win rate with him - what more do you want? It's funny because you said it yourself that it "was not his fault" and yet you can't wrap your head around not using something that was not his fault in your player evaluations. It's like blaming a sprinter for his teammate messing up the relay race and equating it to a sprinter himself messing up the race because of injuries.
The fact that you think people hypothetically pump up Garnett's value because he was on a bad team says it all. There is nothing hypothetical about Garnett's value. Just because he was on a garbage team does not mean he had little value. If a sprinter ran a great race but another teammate dropped the baton and the relay team finished last, he still ran a great race regardless. It does not require any hypothetical pumping up of his performance to say he ran a great race. You, on the other hand, are penalizing a sprinter for his teammate's failure and saying he ran a poor race because his team finished poorly, without looking at how he actually performed himself.
I never knew this. This is maybe one of the most absurd stats I have heard.
Greatly appreciate the whole CORP list, seeing it all put out like that it's nice to see how close it all gets pretty quickly. Lots of folks have very strong opinions on some of those guys, when it should really be not at all wild for one person to have a guy like #35 and someone else have him at #55.
Any guys you're particularly excited to do and add to the list?
ceiling raiser wrote:Good stuff. How long did this take you to put together? I really want to do a CORP-based top 50 (top 100 is just not happening for me), but it seems time-prohibitive.
Not that long, but mostly because I had this idea in mind for a long time. It took me around 2 days to compile that.
Now I will try to compare my results for the lower end of my list with Ben Taylor CORP evaluation, I am interested in how he views some of these players.
Thank you all of you for your contribution. I wanted to make my list a bit less subjective (especially considering active guys), so I decided to make a rough estimation of career title odds in Ben Taylor's mold. To do that, I didn't estimate the CORP for each season of each player (that would takes me ages!), but I decided to do a quick estimation by creating the same tiers Ben did in his top 40 project:
Keep in mind that this rough estimation treats all MVP-level seasons as the same, which isn't really the case in reality, so the results can be different from how I'd really order them. Anyway, here are the results of my estimation (I included all players that were mentioned in this thread that I didn't have in my first top 50, the numbers are in % points):
[spoiler]Player Title odds 1 LeBron James 327,0 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 303,9 3 Bill Russell 266,5 4 Michael Jordan 247,2 5 Tim Duncan 242,9 6 Hakeem Olajuwon 239,1 7 Wilt Chamberlain 228,8 8 Shaquille O'Neal 228,3 9 Kevin Garnett 212,4 10 Magic Johnson 182,8 11 Kobe Bryant 181,5 12 Oscar Robertson 178,5 13 Karl Malone 171,7 14 Stephen Curry 170,8 15 Dirk Nowitzki 170,4 16 Julius Erving 170,0 17 Larry Bird 168,2 18 Jerry West 168,2 19 Chris Paul 165,2 20 David Robinson 164,4 21 Kevin Durant 161,4 22 Moses Malone 152,8 23 Charles Barkley 146,8 24 Steve Nash 140,3 25 Dwyane Wade 137,3 26 James Harden 130,9 27 John Stockton 125,3 28 Patrick Ewing 124,0 29 Artis Gilmore 120,6 30 John Havlicek 119,7 31 Reggie Miller 118,0 32 Giannis Antetokumpo 116,3 33 George Mikan 115,5 34 Jason Kidd 112,4 35 Nikola Jokic 110,7 36 Scottie Pippen 109,9 37 Rick Barry 109,0 38 Anthony Davis 105,2 39 Bob Pettit 103,9 40 Paul Pierce 103,9 41 George Gervin 101,7 42 Ray Allen 100,4 43 Dolph Schayes 99,1 44 Nate Thurmond 97,4 45 Walt Frazier 95,7 46 Dikembe Mutombo 95,7 47 Elgin Baylor 95,7 48 Bob Lanier 94,8 49 Russell Westbrook 92,7 50 Dwight Howard 91,8 51 Pau Gasol 91,4 52 Clyde Drexler 89,7 53 Jimmy Butler 89,3 54 Kawhi Leonard 88,0 55 Kevin McHale 85,8 56 Paul Arizin 84,5 57 Elvin Hayes 83,7 58 Robert Parish 83,3 59 Alonzo Mourning 77,3 60 Isiah Thomas 76,8 61 Manu Ginobili 73,0 62 Draymond Green 72,5 63 Chauncey Billups 70,4 64 Rudy Gobert 70,0 65 Dave Cowens 66,5 66 Luka Doncic 49,4
Some notes for those who don't want to read the whole list:
- my top 8 is the same, with the only difference is that Hakeem surpassed Wilt for the 6th spot, - Garnett surpassed Magic for the 9th spot, probably well deserved, - Larry Bird went down to 17th spot (tie with West), below Kobe, Malone, Curry, Nowtizki and Julius, - Chris Paul went up to 19th spot, - Durant went down to 21st spot, - Bob Pettit went from 25th spot to a staggering 39th spot, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of these two extremes, - Harden went up to 26th spot, - Havlicek made top 30 at the 30th spot, - Reggie went up 10 spots from 41st to 31st, - Mikan is available now at 33rd spot (without counting pre-1950 seasons), - Pippen went down to 36th spot, - Davis appeared at 38th spot (probably deserved that, I was too harsh on his availability and now him at 38th vs Giannis at 32nd makes sense), - Paul Pierce appeared at 40th spot (I forgot about him), - despite criticism, Gervin actually went up a few spots to 41st, - Ray Allen appeared at 42nd spot (forgot about him), - Schayes went down from 39th to 43rd, - Frazier went from 38th to 45th, similarly to Baylor who got from 39th to 47th, - Lanier went a bit down from 41st to 48th (due to durability problems mostly), - Howard finished top 50, - Drexler (52nd), McHale (55th) and Thomas (60th) actually missed top 50, - Kawhi and Butler didn't make top 50, - Luka isn't close to the top 60 players for now.[/spoiler]
If you think that I am still missing someone, please let me know and I will include him.
I think I'd have to add some longevity curve for oldschool guys, as they are generally underrated by this approach due to having significantly shorter career (that's why I expect Schayes, Pettit, Mikan, Thurmond and Frazier to finish higher). Do you have any idea how to do that?
Be curious to see where Gary Payton ranks the most; he feels like a possible [probable??] top 50 (top 60-65 lock), but I'm not seeing his name. Though also curious about Wes Unseld, Allen Iverson, and Bob Cousy. Also curious about Willis Reed, given his lacking longevity.
I get the feeling you're even higher on Rudy Gobert than I am (and he was my favourite player for a few years there in Utah).
I will include Payton, Unseld, Iverson, Cousy and Reed. I am sure that Payton will be higher than ~70.
Keep in mind that I only included my former top 50 and players mentioned in this thread. Gobert wouldn't be likely in my top 70, just like Luka isn't even close now to such a high ranking (I'm not sure I'd have him inside top 120).
Greatly appreciate the whole CORP list, seeing it all put out like that it's nice to see how close it all gets pretty quickly. Lots of folks have very strong opinions on some of those guys, when it should really be not at all wild for one person to have a guy like #35 and someone else have him at #55.
Any guys you're particularly excited to do and add to the list?
I don't know, for now I will include trex nominations. If you think someone else would be interesting to add, please let me know.
iggymcfrack wrote:I feel like this was largely a very good and much improved list. A lot of the things I disliked most about your list magically fixed themselves with more objective criteria.
I guess it helped me the most to judge longevity for outliers like Parish and Kawhi. It's a good way to start your list.
Isiah out of the top 50,
I think I had Thomas too high, mostly because I forgot about a few players I'd put over him regadless.
Pettit out of the top 30,
Yeah, his mediocre longevity hurts him. I still expect him to be ranked higher overall with longevity curve, probably top 35 is a closer estimation.
CP3 over Durant,
Only by 2 spots and the difference between them is rather small. They just changed their positions and are still in the same tier.
Davis appearing,
That was a bad omission in retrospect, he should be inside top 50.
Hakeem over Wilt,
These two are in the same tier, the order can change with longevity curve.
KG over Magic,
Yes, I feel more comfortable than ever with KG higher than Magic.
Bird falling out of the top 15.
Again though - the difference between Bird (17th) and Malone (13th) is only 3.5 percentage points. If I make a more accurate evaluation of each season, I wouldn't be surprised if Bird finishes ahead of Malone.
Since Kawhi was maybe your most controversial omission before and he's still out of the top 50, I'd be very curious how you're scoring the seasons where he gets injured in the playoffs. Is he getting no credit? Very little credit? 2017 for instance, I would probably score as at least a weak MVP level season since he was a strong MVP candidate in the regular season and was clearly the best player in the playoffs and maybe even having one of the best playoffs of all-time before a dirty play took him out. I feel like since he hadn't been injury prone up to that point and he carried the team as far as anyone possibly could, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt a little more on that one.
Please let me know what you think about it. I don't think I underrated Kawhi's actual ability, in fact some may argue I overrated him compared to other wings, but he just isn't healthy enough.
iggymcfrack wrote:I feel like this was largely a very good and much improved list. A lot of the things I disliked most about your list magically fixed themselves with more objective criteria.
I guess it helped me the most to judge longevity for outliers like Parish and Kawhi. It's a good way to start your list.
Isiah out of the top 50,
I think I had Thomas too high, mostly because I forgot about a few players I'd put over him regadless.
Pettit out of the top 30,
Yeah, his mediocre longevity hurts him. I still expect him to be ranked higher overall with longevity curve, probably top 35 is a closer estimation.
CP3 over Durant,
Only by 2 spots and the difference between them is rather small. They just changed their positions and are still in the same tier.
Davis appearing,
That was a bad omission in retrospect, he should be inside top 50.
Hakeem over Wilt,
These two are in the same tier, the order can change with longevity curve.
KG over Magic,
Yes, I feel more comfortable than ever with KG higher than Magic.
Bird falling out of the top 15.
Again though - the difference between Bird (17th) and Malone (13th) is only 3.5 percentage points. If I make a more accurate evaluation of each season, I wouldn't be surprised if Bird finishes ahead of Malone.
Since Kawhi was maybe your most controversial omission before and he's still out of the top 50, I'd be very curious how you're scoring the seasons where he gets injured in the playoffs. Is he getting no credit? Very little credit? 2017 for instance, I would probably score as at least a weak MVP level season since he was a strong MVP candidate in the regular season and was clearly the best player in the playoffs and maybe even having one of the best playoffs of all-time before a dirty play took him out. I feel like since he hadn't been injury prone up to that point and he carried the team as far as anyone possibly could, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt a little more on that one.
Please let me know what you think about it. I don't think I underrated Kawhi's actual ability, in fact some may argue I overrated him compared to other wings, but he just isn't healthy enough.
You were more generous to the 2017 season than I expected, but I think you were really harsh on the healthy seasons. The 2016 and 2019 season for instance I would have at least one level ahead of the 2001, 2003, and 2006 Kobe seasons which you all had as MVP-caliber. 2016 Kawhi won DPOY with better regular season and postseason numbers than 2006 Kobe who probably had one of the worst defensive seasons ever for a superstar. 2019 Kawhi was clearly the most valuable player in the league with incredible performances to lead his team to a ring.
I also feel like the 2014 season isn’t getting the credit it deserves. That wasn’t a fluke Iguodala-like FMVP. Kawhi had the best impact numbers of any Spurs starter by far. That should get all-NBA credit. Also, 2023 has to get credit for something. I had Kawhi as all-NBA during the regular season and he played great in his very small postseason sample. He should at least get all-star credit for this season. If he hasn’t been stretched to play huge minutes against a superior opponent, I think he may well have made it though the postseason without injury.
Thank you all of you for your contribution. I wanted to make my list a bit less subjective (especially considering active guys), so I decided to make a rough estimation of career title odds in Ben Taylor's mold. To do that, I didn't estimate the CORP for each season of each player (that would takes me ages!), but I decided to do a quick estimation by creating the same tiers Ben did in his top 40 project:
Keep in mind that this rough estimation treats all MVP-level seasons as the same, which isn't really the case in reality, so the results can be different from how I'd really order them. Anyway, here are the results of my estimation (I included all players that were mentioned in this thread that I didn't have in my first top 50, the numbers are in % points):
[spoiler]Player Title odds 1 LeBron James 327,0 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 303,9 3 Bill Russell 266,5 4 Michael Jordan 247,2 5 Tim Duncan 242,9 6 Hakeem Olajuwon 239,1 7 Wilt Chamberlain 228,8 8 Shaquille O'Neal 228,3 9 Kevin Garnett 212,4 10 Magic Johnson 182,8 11 Kobe Bryant 181,5 12 Oscar Robertson 178,5 13 Karl Malone 171,7 14 Stephen Curry 170,8 15 Dirk Nowitzki 170,4 16 Julius Erving 170,0 17 Larry Bird 168,2 18 Jerry West 168,2 19 Chris Paul 165,2 20 David Robinson 164,4 21 Kevin Durant 161,4 22 Moses Malone 152,8 23 Charles Barkley 146,8 24 Steve Nash 140,3 25 Dwyane Wade 137,3 26 James Harden 130,9 27 John Stockton 125,3 28 Patrick Ewing 124,0 29 Artis Gilmore 120,6 30 John Havlicek 119,7 31 Reggie Miller 118,0 32 Giannis Antetokumpo 116,3 33 George Mikan 115,5 34 Jason Kidd 112,4 35 Nikola Jokic 110,7 36 Scottie Pippen 109,9 37 Rick Barry 109,0 38 Anthony Davis 105,2 39 Bob Pettit 103,9 40 Paul Pierce 103,9 41 George Gervin 101,7 42 Ray Allen 100,4 43 Dolph Schayes 99,1 44 Nate Thurmond 97,4 45 Walt Frazier 95,7 46 Dikembe Mutombo 95,7 47 Elgin Baylor 95,7 48 Bob Lanier 94,8 49 Russell Westbrook 92,7 50 Dwight Howard 91,8 51 Pau Gasol 91,4 52 Clyde Drexler 89,7 53 Jimmy Butler 89,3 54 Gary Payton 89,3 55 Kawhi Leonard 88,0 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 57 Kevin McHale 85,8 58 Paul Arizin 84,5 59 Elvin Hayes 83,7 60 Robert Parish 83,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 62 Alonzo Mourning 77,3 63 Isiah Thomas 76,8 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 65 Manu Ginobili 73,0 66 Draymond Green 72,5 67 Chauncey Billups 70,4 68 Rudy Gobert 70,0 69 Dave Cowens 68,7 70 Dennis Rodman 66,5 71 Willis Reed 64,8 72 Ben Wallace 64,4 73 Luka Doncic 49,4
Some notes for those who don't want to read the whole list:
- my top 8 is the same, with the only difference is that Hakeem surpassed Wilt for the 6th spot, - Garnett surpassed Magic for the 9th spot, probably well deserved, - Larry Bird went down to 17th spot (tie with West), below Kobe, Malone, Curry, Nowtizki and Julius, - Chris Paul went up to 19th spot, - Durant went down to 21st spot, - Bob Pettit went from 25th spot to a staggering 39th spot, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of these two extremes, - Harden went up to 26th spot, - Havlicek made top 30 at the 30th spot, - Reggie went up 10 spots from 41st to 31st, - Mikan is available now at 33rd spot (without counting pre-1950 seasons), - Pippen went down to 36th spot, - Davis appeared at 38th spot (probably deserved that, I was too harsh on his availability and now him at 38th vs Giannis at 32nd makes sense), - Paul Pierce appeared at 40th spot (I forgot about him), - despite criticism, Gervin actually went up a few spots to 41st, - Ray Allen appeared at 42nd spot (forgot about him), - Schayes went down from 39th to 43rd, - Frazier went from 38th to 45th, similarly to Baylor who got from 39th to 47th, - Lanier went a bit down from 41st to 48th (due to durability problems mostly), - Howard finished top 50, - Drexler (52nd), McHale (55th) and Thomas (60th) actually missed top 50, - Kawhi and Butler didn't make top 50, - Luka isn't close to the top 60 players for now.[/spoiler]
If you think that I am still missing someone, please let me know and I will include him.
I think I'd have to add some longevity curve for oldschool guys, as they are generally underrated by this approach due to having significantly shorter career (that's why I expect Schayes, Pettit, Mikan, Thurmond and Frazier to finish higher). Do you have any idea how to do that?
Be curious to see where Gary Payton ranks the most; he feels like a possible [probable??] top 50 (top 60-65 lock), but I'm not seeing his name. Though also curious about Wes Unseld, Allen Iverson, and Bob Cousy. Also curious about Willis Reed, given his lacking longevity.
I get the feeling you're even higher on Rudy Gobert than I am (and he was my favourite player for a few years there in Utah).
Updated list:
Spoiler:
1 LeBron James 327,0 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 303,9 3 Bill Russell 266,5 4 Michael Jordan 247,2 5 Tim Duncan 242,9 6 Hakeem Olajuwon 239,1 7 Wilt Chamberlain 228,8 8 Shaquille O'Neal 228,3 9 Kevin Garnett 212,4 10 Magic Johnson 182,8 11 Kobe Bryant 181,5 12 Oscar Robertson 178,5 13 Karl Malone 171,7 14 Stephen Curry 170,8 15 Dirk Nowitzki 170,4 16 Julius Erving 170,0 17 Larry Bird 168,2 18 Jerry West 168,2 19 Chris Paul 165,2 20 David Robinson 164,4 21 Kevin Durant 161,4 22 Moses Malone 152,8 23 Charles Barkley 146,8 24 Steve Nash 140,3 25 Dwyane Wade 137,3 26 James Harden 130,9 27 John Stockton 125,3 28 Patrick Ewing 124,0 29 Artis Gilmore 120,6 30 John Havlicek 119,7 31 Reggie Miller 118,0 32 Giannis Antetokumpo 116,3 33 George Mikan 115,5 34 Jason Kidd 112,4 35 Nikola Jokic 110,7 36 Scottie Pippen 109,9 37 Rick Barry 109,0 38 Anthony Davis 105,2 39 Bob Pettit 103,9 40 Paul Pierce 103,9 41 George Gervin 101,7 42 Ray Allen 100,4 43 Dolph Schayes 99,1 44 Nate Thurmond 97,4 45 Walt Frazier 95,7 46 Dikembe Mutombo 95,7 47 Elgin Baylor 95,7 48 Bob Lanier 94,8 49 Russell Westbrook 92,7 50 Dwight Howard 91,8 51 Pau Gasol 91,4 52 Clyde Drexler 89,7 53 Jimmy Butler 89,3 54 Gary Payton 89,3 55 Kawhi Leonard 88,0 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 57 Kevin McHale 85,8 58 Paul Arizin 84,5 59 Elvin Hayes 83,7 60 Robert Parish 83,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 62 Alonzo Mourning 77,3 63 Isiah Thomas 76,8 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 65 Manu Ginobili 73,0 66 Draymond Green 72,5 67 Chauncey Billups 70,4 68 Rudy Gobert 70,0 69 Dave Cowens 66,5 70 Willis Reed 64,8 71 Luka Doncic 49,4
Added players:
54 Gary Payton 89,3 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 70 Willis Reed 64,8
I am surprised that Payton didn't make the top 50. I am also surprised how high Cousy finished. Also - poor Reed, no longevity hurts him a lot.
iggymcfrack wrote:You were more generous to the 2017 season than I expected, but I think you were really harsh on the healthy seasons.
I am high on healthy Kawhi, but such player basically existed for 2-3 years.
The 2016 and 2019 season for instance I would have at least one level ahead of the 2001, 2003, and 2006 Kobe seasons which you all had as MVP-caliber.
I disagree with 2016, because despite his excellent wing defense (truly top tier for his position), 2016 Kawhi didn't have a superstar offensive game yet, which was visible in the playoffs. I think the Spurs machine created by Pop really helped him in that season to look better than he was. Prime Kobe was significantly better offensive player than 2016 Kawhi.
I think 2019 season would be up there with these Kobe seasons, but he missed a lot of games in RS and played hobbled in the finals - again, injuries suck.
2016 Kawhi won DPOY with better regular season and postseason numbers than 2006 Kobe who probably had one of the worst defensive seasons ever for a superstar.
Kobe coasted on that end in 2006, but I certainly wouldn't go that far.
2019 Kawhi was clearly the most valuable player in the league with incredible performances to lead his team to a ring.
I don't think he was - Curry, LeBron and Giannis all have reasonable arguments.
I also feel like the 2014 season isn’t getting the credit it deserves. That wasn’t a fluke Iguodala-like FMVP. Kawhi had the best impact numbers of any Spurs starter by far. That should get all-NBA credit.
Maybe he is a weak-ish all-nba player, he's on the edge. I can certainly see giving him such credit.
Also, 2023 has to get credit for something. I had Kawhi as all-NBA during the regular season and he played great in his very small postseason sample. He should at least get all-star credit for this season. If he hasn’t been stretched to play huge minutes against a superior opponent, I think he may well have made it though the postseason without injury.
EDIT: I wrote wrong seasons, I credited Kawhi with all-star season for 2023. I didn't give him any credit for 2022 because he didn't play (which makes sense). Sorry for the confusion.
1 LeBron James 327,0 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 303,9 3 Bill Russell 266,5 4 Michael Jordan 247,2 5 Tim Duncan 242,9 6 Hakeem Olajuwon 239,1 7 Wilt Chamberlain 228,8 8 Shaquille O'Neal 228,3 9 Kevin Garnett 212,4 10 Magic Johnson 182,8 11 Kobe Bryant 181,5 12 Oscar Robertson 178,5 13 Karl Malone 171,7 14 Stephen Curry 170,8 15 Dirk Nowitzki 170,4 16 Julius Erving 170,0 17 Larry Bird 168,2 18 Jerry West 168,2 19 Chris Paul 165,2 20 David Robinson 164,4 21 Kevin Durant 161,4 22 Moses Malone 152,8 23 Charles Barkley 146,8 24 Steve Nash 140,3 25 Dwyane Wade 137,3 26 James Harden 130,9 27 John Stockton 125,3 28 Patrick Ewing 124,0 29 Artis Gilmore 120,6 30 John Havlicek 119,7 31 Reggie Miller 118,0 32 Giannis Antetokumpo 116,3 33 George Mikan 115,5 34 Jason Kidd 112,4 35 Nikola Jokic 110,7 36 Scottie Pippen 109,9 37 Rick Barry 109,0 38 Anthony Davis 105,2 39 Bob Pettit 103,9 40 Paul Pierce 103,9 41 George Gervin 101,7 42 Ray Allen 100,4 43 Dolph Schayes 99,1 44 Nate Thurmond 97,4 45 Walt Frazier 95,7 46 Dikembe Mutombo 95,7 47 Elgin Baylor 95,7 48 Bob Lanier 94,8 49 Russell Westbrook 92,7 50 Dwight Howard 91,8 51 Pau Gasol 91,4 52 Clyde Drexler 89,7 53 Jimmy Butler 89,3 54 Gary Payton 89,3 55 Kawhi Leonard 88,0 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 57 Kevin McHale 85,8 58 Paul Arizin 84,5 59 Elvin Hayes 83,7 60 Robert Parish 83,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 62 Alonzo Mourning 77,3 63 Isiah Thomas 76,8 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 65 Manu Ginobili 73,0 66 Draymond Green 72,5 67 Chauncey Billups 70,4 68 Rudy Gobert 70,0 69 Dave Cowens 66,5 70 Willis Reed 64,8 71 Luka Doncic 49,4
Added players:
54 Gary Payton 89,3 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 70 Willis Reed 64,8
I am surprised that Payton didn't make the top 50. I am also surprised how high Cousy finished. Also - poor Reed, no longevity hurts him a lot.
Interesting! Considering that I rank guys like Bob Cousy and Isiah Thomas significantly higher, I anticipate that the next Top 100 vote will be a fun challenge.
I'm curious to see where Ben Wallace and Dennis Rodman rank.
70sFan wrote:Thank you all of you for your contribution. I wanted to make my list a bit less subjective (especially considering active guys), so I decided to make a rough estimation of career title odds in Ben Taylor's mold. To do that, I didn't estimate the CORP for each season of each player (that would takes me ages!), but I decided to do a quick estimation by creating the same tiers Ben did in his top 40 project:
Keep in mind that this rough estimation treats all MVP-level seasons as the same, which isn't really the case in reality, so the results can be different from how I'd really order them. Anyway, here are the results of my estimation (I included all players that were mentioned in this thread that I didn't have in my first top 50, the numbers are in % points):
Spoiler:
Player Title odds 1 LeBron James 327,0 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 303,9 3 Bill Russell 266,5 4 Michael Jordan 247,2 5 Tim Duncan 242,9 6 Hakeem Olajuwon 239,1 7 Wilt Chamberlain 228,8 8 Shaquille O'Neal 228,3 9 Kevin Garnett 212,4 10 Magic Johnson 182,8 11 Kobe Bryant 181,5 12 Oscar Robertson 178,5 13 Karl Malone 171,7 14 Stephen Curry 170,8 15 Dirk Nowitzki 170,4 16 Julius Erving 170,0 17 Larry Bird 168,2 18 Jerry West 168,2 19 Chris Paul 165,2 20 David Robinson 164,4 21 Kevin Durant 161,4 22 Moses Malone 152,8 23 Charles Barkley 146,8 24 Steve Nash 140,3 25 Dwyane Wade 137,3 26 James Harden 130,9 27 John Stockton 125,3 28 Patrick Ewing 124,0 29 Artis Gilmore 120,6 30 John Havlicek 119,7 31 Reggie Miller 118,0 32 Giannis Antetokumpo 116,3 33 George Mikan 115,5 34 Jason Kidd 112,4 35 Nikola Jokic 110,7 36 Scottie Pippen 109,9 37 Rick Barry 109,0 38 Anthony Davis 105,2 39 Bob Pettit 103,9 40 Paul Pierce 103,9 41 George Gervin 101,7 42 Ray Allen 100,4 43 Dolph Schayes 99,1 44 Nate Thurmond 97,4 45 Walt Frazier 95,7 46 Dikembe Mutombo 95,7 47 Elgin Baylor 95,7 48 Bob Lanier 94,8 49 Russell Westbrook 92,7 50 Dwight Howard 91,8 51 Pau Gasol 91,4 52 Clyde Drexler 89,7 53 Jimmy Butler 89,3 54 Kawhi Leonard 88,0 55 Kevin McHale 85,8 56 Paul Arizin 84,5 57 Elvin Hayes 83,7 58 Robert Parish 83,3 59 Alonzo Mourning 77,3 60 Isiah Thomas 76,8 61 Manu Ginobili 73,0 62 Draymond Green 72,5 63 Chauncey Billups 70,4 64 Rudy Gobert 70,0 65 Dave Cowens 66,5 66 Luka Doncic 49,4
Some notes for those who don't want to read the whole list:
- my top 8 is the same, with the only difference is that Hakeem surpassed Wilt for the 6th spot, - Garnett surpassed Magic for the 9th spot, probably well deserved, - Larry Bird went down to 17th spot (tie with West), below Kobe, Malone, Curry, Nowtizki and Julius, - Chris Paul went up to 19th spot, - Durant went down to 21st spot, - Bob Pettit went from 25th spot to a staggering 39th spot, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of these two extremes, - Harden went up to 26th spot, - Havlicek made top 30 at the 30th spot, - Reggie went up 10 spots from 41st to 31st, - Mikan is available now at 33rd spot (without counting pre-1950 seasons), - Pippen went down to 36th spot, - Davis appeared at 38th spot (probably deserved that, I was too harsh on his availability and now him at 38th vs Giannis at 32nd makes sense), - Paul Pierce appeared at 40th spot (I forgot about him), - despite criticism, Gervin actually went up a few spots to 41st, - Ray Allen appeared at 42nd spot (forgot about him), - Schayes went down from 39th to 43rd, - Frazier went from 38th to 45th, similarly to Baylor who got from 39th to 47th, - Lanier went a bit down from 41st to 48th (due to durability problems mostly), - Howard finished top 50, - Drexler (52nd), McHale (55th) and Thomas (60th) actually missed top 50, - Kawhi and Butler didn't make top 50, - Luka isn't close to the top 60 players for now.
If you think that I am still missing someone, please let me know and I will include him.
I think I'd have to add some longevity curve for oldschool guys, as they are generally underrated by this approach due to having significantly shorter career (that's why I expect Schayes, Pettit, Mikan, Thurmond and Frazier to finish higher). Do you have any idea how to do that?
Great attempt to take a more quantitative approach to make a all-time list!
Can I ask how you did this for every single player so fast? I imagine it's a lot of work if you are starting from scratch.
Also, for example, how would you have rated Danny Green vs DeMar DeRozan in 2014? Do you think it makes sense to say despite Danny Green being a strong "role player" while DD could be considered "all star", Danny Green provides you better title-odds?
1 LeBron James 327,0 2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 303,9 3 Bill Russell 266,5 4 Michael Jordan 247,2 5 Tim Duncan 242,9 6 Hakeem Olajuwon 239,1 7 Wilt Chamberlain 228,8 8 Shaquille O'Neal 228,3 9 Kevin Garnett 212,4 10 Magic Johnson 182,8 11 Kobe Bryant 181,5 12 Oscar Robertson 178,5 13 Karl Malone 171,7 14 Stephen Curry 170,8 15 Dirk Nowitzki 170,4 16 Julius Erving 170,0 17 Larry Bird 168,2 18 Jerry West 168,2 19 Chris Paul 165,2 20 David Robinson 164,4 21 Kevin Durant 161,4 22 Moses Malone 152,8 23 Charles Barkley 146,8 24 Steve Nash 140,3 25 Dwyane Wade 137,3 26 James Harden 130,9 27 John Stockton 125,3 28 Patrick Ewing 124,0 29 Artis Gilmore 120,6 30 John Havlicek 119,7 31 Reggie Miller 118,0 32 Giannis Antetokumpo 116,3 33 George Mikan 115,5 34 Jason Kidd 112,4 35 Nikola Jokic 110,7 36 Scottie Pippen 109,9 37 Rick Barry 109,0 38 Anthony Davis 105,2 39 Bob Pettit 103,9 40 Paul Pierce 103,9 41 George Gervin 101,7 42 Ray Allen 100,4 43 Dolph Schayes 99,1 44 Nate Thurmond 97,4 45 Walt Frazier 95,7 46 Dikembe Mutombo 95,7 47 Elgin Baylor 95,7 48 Bob Lanier 94,8 49 Russell Westbrook 92,7 50 Dwight Howard 91,8 51 Pau Gasol 91,4 52 Clyde Drexler 89,7 53 Jimmy Butler 89,3 54 Gary Payton 89,3 55 Kawhi Leonard 88,0 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 57 Kevin McHale 85,8 58 Paul Arizin 84,5 59 Elvin Hayes 83,7 60 Robert Parish 83,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 62 Alonzo Mourning 77,3 63 Isiah Thomas 76,8 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 65 Manu Ginobili 73,0 66 Draymond Green 72,5 67 Chauncey Billups 70,4 68 Rudy Gobert 70,0 69 Dave Cowens 66,5 70 Willis Reed 64,8 71 Luka Doncic 49,4
Added players:
54 Gary Payton 89,3 56 Wes Unseld 86,3 61 Bob Cousy 80,7 64 Allen Iverson 76,0 70 Willis Reed 64,8
I am surprised that Payton didn't make the top 50. I am also surprised how high Cousy finished. Also - poor Reed, no longevity hurts him a lot.
Interesting! Considering that I rank guys like Bob Cousy and Isiah Thomas significantly higher, I anticipate that the next Top 100 vote will be a fun challenge.
I'm curious to see where Ben Wallace and Dennis Rodman rank.
I will add Wallace and Rodman, I also thought about them. I don't expect them to make top 50, but maybe they will crack to 65?
Edit: updated the list:
70 Dennis Rodman 66,5 71 Willis Reed 64,8 72 Ben Wallace 64,4
WestGOAT wrote:Great attempt to take a more quantitative approach to make a all-time list!
Can I ask how you did this for every single player so fast? I imagine it's a lot of work if you are starting from scratch.
Also, for example, how would you have rated Danny Green vs DeMar DeRozan in 2014? Do you think it makes sense to say despite Danny Green being a strong "role player" while DD could be considered "all star", Danny Green provides you better title-odds?
1. That's not super hard when you are doing such things for almost a decade If I have a decent understand of how high given player peaked and how his weaker years compares, it doesn't require a lot of time to estimate the value of each season. But to be fair, I often look at culminative stats and Ben Taylor's CORP evaluation when I am in trouble.
2. I am not sure how good this method is for much lower level players like DeMar and Green. To compare such players, I think that more tiers should be added at the bottom. I would say that 2014 Green has a decent case for "sub all-star" season in my opinion.
If I have a decent understand of how high given player peaked and how his weaker years compares, it doesn't require a lot of time to estimate the value of each season.