Alternate Finals: 2016 Thunder vs. 2016 Cavs

[SK21209]

If not for all-time incredible shotmaking by Klay and Curry in Games 6 and 7 of the WCF we would have gotten Thunder vs. Cavs, LeBron vs. KD Part II in the Finals. Who wins?

The Cavs won a close game at home against the Thunder and then blew them out in OKC during the 2015-2016 regular season. I'm not sure that has much bearing on a Finals matchup. The Thunder were 13th in defensive rating in the regular season, but we saw them lock in during the WCSF against the Spurs and completely stall their offense. They did a pretty awesome job on the Warriors as well, it really was just ridiculous shotmaking from Klay and Curry that saved them, plus Durant and Russ playing terribly down the stretch of Game 6.

That 2016 Thunder team is the most physically imposing NBA team I've ever seen. Russ was a 6'3" PG still near his peak athleticism. Roberson was their 6'7" SG who couldn't shoot at all but was a very good defender. Durant is a 7-foot tall athletic SF, Ibaka was 6'10" and didn't have quite the springs he used to but was still a very good rim protector. The big difference compared to their previous playoff teams was Adams, a legit 7-footer and super physical enforcer.

All that to say, I think the 2016 Thunder might dominate the 2016 Cavs physically in a Finals matchup. Are Kyrie or JR Smith really going to be able to stay in front of Westbrook? If he gets by those guys, now he's being met at the rim by a pretty small/non-intimidating Cavs frontline in Love and Thompson. LeBron doesn't get to guard Draymond and roam on defense, now he's guarding KD the whole game. LeBron and Kyrie matchup-hunted Steph to death in the last three games, who are they doing that too against the Thunder? Tristan Thompson isn't getting all those offensive rebounds against Durant/Ibaka/Adams.

Obviously the Cavs would have counters for some of this stuff and that Thunder team was prone to sloppy play down the stretch of games. The 2016 Cavs were an awesome team in their own right. But I think the 2016 Thunder beat them if they get by the Warriors.

[No-more-rings]

I’d say Cavs since I just trust Lebron more in the clutch than KD/Westbrook combined. Not saying he’s better than both combined, but if those games are close, it’s hard betting against Lebron. Still close to a tossup, and should go 7 just like Cavs vs GSW and OKC vs Warriors did.

[RCM88x]

IMO the Thunder had way more flaws and weaknesses that could be attacked than the Warriors. What made OKC such a tough matchup, specifically for GS was their interior length mucking up their motion offense. They had their own size to counter GS size which was so difficult to deal with for many teams at the time. Draymond also had a historically poor shooting series even by his standards, hard to know if that was due to OKC specifically or just general variance.

Two things I think that bode well for the Cavs here. First they have much more versatile depth relative to OKC than against GS, opening up their options quite a bit, Love has a much more comfortable matchup and can play more, so can Shumpert, Frye, Mogzov and Delly since they won't be as overwhelmed by the size, speed and space of GS. Secondly, is just the lack of spacing. I don't get why you say "now he's guarding KD the whole game" in reference to Lebron. This is a pretty straightforward Lebron on Roberson or Dion series, allowing him to roam as needed, neither of those guys are threats from outside (at best they are equals to 2016 Draymond). He can still definitely pickup KD when he has to but certainly doesn't need to stick to him all game, that just wouldn't make any sense. RJ, JR, Shump aren't great but they'd be the ones stuck to KD most of the time.

Adams, Kanter and even WB are still guys that can be attacked easily in PNR, especially if Cavs can play the 5 out lineups that they couldn't against GS. Probably not quite as efficient as they would be at this in 2017 but certainly still on the table now against a non GS roster.

Westbrooks physicality does perhaps present some different challenges relative to Curry, opposite players really. But Kyrie historically played really well against WB during the early years of his career. Unless he can make the Cavs pay with his outside shooting, obviously he's a much more favorable matchup than Curry for this team.

One additional thing that people might forget here is that the Cavs would have HCA in this series too.

Ultimately I think we saw as the WCF series matured that GS was just a better team, and deserved to win that series. While OKC was really good, they had lots of flaws too as they showed during the series and historically. I wouldn't at all rule out OKC winning, but to me they have a far worse chance against these Cavs than GS did.

[SK21209]

IMO the Thunder had way more flaws and weaknesses that could be attacked than the Warriors. What made OKC such a tough matchup, specifically for GS was their interior length mucking up their motion offense. They had their own size to counter GS size which was so difficult to deal with for many teams at the time. Draymond also had a historically poor shooting series even by his standards, hard to know if that was due to OKC specifically or just general variance.

Two things I think that bode well for the Cavs here. First they have much more versatile depth relative to OKC than against GS, opening up their options quite a bit, Love has a much more comfortable matchup and can play more, so can Shumpert, Frye, Mogzov and Delly since they won't be as overwhelmed by the size, speed and space of GS. Secondly, is just the lack of spacing. I don't get why you say "now he's guarding KD the whole game" in reference to Lebron. This is a pretty straightforward Lebron on Roberson or Dion series, allowing him to roam as needed, neither of those guys are threats from outside (at best they are equals to 2016 Draymond). He can still definitely pickup KD when he has to but certainly doesn't need to stick to him all game, that just wouldn't make any sense. RJ, JR, Shump aren't great but they'd be the ones stuck to KD most of the time.

Adams, Kanter and even WB are still guys that can be attacked easily in PNR, especially if Cavs can play the 5 out lineups that they couldn't against GS. Probably not quite as efficient as they would be at this in 2017 but certainly still on the table now against a non GS roster.

Westbrooks physicality does perhaps present some different challenges relative to Curry, opposite players really. But Kyrie historically played really well against WB during the early years of his career. Unless he can make the Cavs pay with his outside shooting, obviously he's a much more favorable matchup than Curry for this team.

One additional thing that people might forget here is that the Cavs would have HCA in this series too.

Ultimately I think we saw as the WCF series matured that GS was just a better team, and deserved to win that series. While OKC was really good, they had lots of flaws too as they showed during the series and historically. I wouldn't at all rule out OKC winning, but to me they have a far worse chance against these Cavs than GS did.

Some very good points, although if Love is playing more in this matchup RJ (and maybe Shump) are definitely playing less. I'm envisioning the Cavs playing most of the game with Love and Thompson/Mozgov out there to try and keep Adams/Ibaka/Kanter off the offensive glass. In that case, LeBron kind of has to guard KD in all of those minutes because I imagine JR is guarding Westbrook. I think Kyrie is just too small for that. If you go Love at the 5 with RJ at the 4, you can really stretch the Thunder out but you're playing a really dangerous game on the glass. Kanter and Adams murdered the Spurs with offensive boards that postseason.

Anyways, I think it would have been an awesome matchup and I think you're right that I underestimated the versatility of that Cavs' roster. I really wish we had gotten to see those Cavs teams play some other West team in a series (Thunder, Spurs, hell even the Clippers) rather than the Warriors 4 years in a row.