Updating my top 50

[70sFan]

point 2 first - using Malone as example, you can use Duncan or LeBron but dont want to derail a conversation.

Point 1 - try this, I used bpm 0.0-3.0 with 1,000 minutes plus as a role player. We can revise based on wherever you set it.
For 2014-2023 there are 937 player seasons, with 30 teams on average 31.2 guys should be on title team, by my count I got 34,
Or your odds go from 3.3% (1 out of 30) to 3.6%
So they don't move the needle 2%, they move it 0.3%


https://stathead.com/tiny/wEEsL

I think you misunderstand what I mean by "role player". Role player is not an average player, he's a player who can contribute positively on a contending team for more than 20 mpg.

okay, so tell me who you have as role players for DEN this year, I can probably calibrate just based on them.

For that level, probably KCP and MPJ (Brown for playoffs only). Gordon would likely get sub all-star credit.

[70sFan]

I don't know why same about Duncan. He won.

So your list basically ranks players based on rings won, cool - that's fine. Some people are interested in how good players were, not only what they accomplished.

Replacing Russell with Gobert, Celtis still still have won many chips, doesn't mean I need to prop Gobert to give him things that he did not do.

Gobert wasn't as good as Russell, that's a horrible analogy.

[Lou Fan]

Only thing I'd say is that it looks like according to your list you place a lot of value on longevity and less on peak/prime but that doesn't seem to apply as much to the players who are currently in the NBA. High peak lower longevity modern guys seem to get hurt less by their lack of longevity than some of the older guys with similar profiles. Also I will always emphasize the importance of some sort of evaluation that takes into account the sorts of things GMs/franchises would think about when choosing which players they want. Leadership, coachability, culture building and that sort of thing.

[DQuinn1575]

I think you misunderstand what I mean by "role player". Role player is not an average player, he's a player who can contribute positively on a contending team for more than 20 mpg.

okay, so tell me who you have as role players for DEN this year, I can probably calibrate just based on them.

For that level, probably KCP and MPJ (Brown for playoffs only). Gordon would likely get sub all-star credit.

So for regular season it had Murray, MPJ, and Gordon, Pope was -1.0

For playoffs, KCP was -0.1, Gordon -0.2, MPJ -0.3, with Murray above that level.




Basically we are about at the same point - 0.0 BPM or better is only done by about 125 players, it's not the production level of the top 1/2 guys in the league, but production to get you to a 41 win team.

There were 326 guys better than this in 10 years higher than 3.0 bpm - 33 a year.
So I currently have guys 34-127 or so in my pool, 94 guys, teams in the league have an average of about 3 of them.
Or Denver had 3 out of 94, so odds of winning a title for any of those guys were the same as for any other player at that level.

[70sFan]

okay, so tell me who you have as role players for DEN this year, I can probably calibrate just based on them.

For that level, probably KCP and MPJ (Brown for playoffs only). Gordon would likely get sub all-star credit.

So for regular season it had Murray, MPJ, and Gordon, Pope was -1.0

For playoffs, KCP was -0.1, Gordon -0.2, MPJ -0.3, with Murray above that level.




Basically we are about at the same point - 0.0 BPM or better is only done by about 125 players, it's not the production level of the top 1/2 guys in the league, but production to get you to a 41 win team.

There were 326 guys better than this in 10 years higher than 3.0 bpm - 33 a year.
So I currently have guys 34-127 or so in my pool, 94 guys, teams in the league have an average of about 3 of them.
Or Denver had 3 out of 94, so odds of winning a title for any of those guys were the same as for any other player at that level.

I will mention that I don't value BPM at all for what it's worth. I don't see 100 players better than KCP this year.

[70sFan]

Only thing I'd say is that it looks like according to your list you place a lot of value on longevity and less on peak/prime but that doesn't seem to apply as much to the players who are currently in the NBA. High peak lower longevity modern guys seem to get hurt less by their lack of longevity than some of the older guys with similar profiles. Also I will always emphasize the importance of some sort of evaluation that takes into account the sorts of things GMs/franchises would think about when choosing which players they want. Leadership, coachability, culture building and that sort of thing.

Would you like to give me some examples?

[DQuinn1575]

For that level, probably KCP and MPJ (Brown for playoffs only). Gordon would likely get sub all-star credit.

So for regular season it had Murray, MPJ, and Gordon, Pope was -1.0

For playoffs, KCP was -0.1, Gordon -0.2, MPJ -0.3, with Murray above that level.




Basically we are about at the same point - 0.0 BPM or better is only done by about 125 players, it's not the production level of the top 1/2 guys in the league, but production to get you to a 41 win team.

There were 326 guys better than this in 10 years higher than 3.0 bpm - 33 a year.
So I currently have guys 34-127 or so in my pool, 94 guys, teams in the league have an average of about 3 of them.
Or Denver had 3 out of 94, so odds of winning a title for any of those guys were the same as for any other player at that level.

I will mention that I don't value BPM at all for what it's worth. I don't see 100 players better than KCP this year.

use whatever valuation system you want, that's not the point.
And not arguing where KCP ranks,
Trying to get the framework
You have

All-nba level - which should be up to about the 15th players
All-star level - which should be up to about 24 players
Sub all-star - - assuming that would be about guys 25-40 or so
Role player - I guessed you would have about the next 85 guys - The Athletic (Seth Partnow) and the Ringer each do a Top 125, maybe you have less.

My point is you have DEN with 2 or 3 of these 85 guys, so the odds of these guys being on a championship team aren't any better than guys rated 126-250.

[70sFan]

use whatever valuation system you want, that's not the point.
And not arguing where KCP ranks,
Trying to get the framework
You have

All-nba level - which should be up to about the 15th players
All-star level - which should be up to about 24 players
Sub all-star - - assuming that would be about guys 25-40 or so
Role player - I guessed you would have about the next 85 guys - The Athletic (Seth Partnow) and the Ringer each do a Top 125, maybe you have less.

Yeah, I think that all-nba level at top 15, all-star level at top 30, sub all-star at top 50 and roleplayer around top 85 sounds fair, though I'm not 100% sure how big is the last tier.

My point is you have DEN with 2 or 3 of these 85 guys, so the odds of these guys being on a championship team aren't any better than guys rated 126-250.

That's not true, we have seen Denver without them last year and they couldn't compete for the title.

[70sFan]

Updated my list with two additional names - Rodman, Vince and Rasheed.

Sheed is a guy I'd be interested in seeing - whenever I go with this approach I feel like he winds up higher than I anticipated.

Sheed finishes 56th with a surprisingly strong career (5 all-nba years and 6 all-star years).

That's fair, so what about higher level players like Ray Alleen and Vince Carter? I think you got Ray Allen pretty high in your extended list, how far off would Vince be?

Carter is at 71st spot with two all-nba seasons and 5 all-star seasons.

[70sFan]

I just made Dantley evaluation and shockingly, I got the identical career value from him and Thomas

Do you think I overrate Dantley a bit too much here?

Isiah Thomas:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 0
All-nba: 6 (1984-88, 1990)
All-star: 3 (1983, 1989, 1992)
Sub all-star: 2 (1982, 1991)
Role player: 1 (1993)

Adrian Dantley:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 0
All-nba: 5 (1980-82, 1984-85)
All-star: 3 (1986-88)
Sub all-star: 4 (1977-79, 1989)
Role player: 2 (1983, 1990)

[70sFan]

Added players:

69 Tracy McGrady
70 Alex English
71 Hal Greer
73 Tony Parker
76 Dominique Wilkins
77 Bobby Jones
78 Damian Lillard
81 Sam Jones
84 Kevin Johnson
85 Bob McAdoo
87 Bill Walton

Full list (Manu and Cowens went up due to the re-evaluation of their peaks):

Spoiler:

1 LeBron James 381,0
2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 354,0
3 Bill Russell 310,5
4 Michael Jordan 288,0
5 Tim Duncan 283,0
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 278,5
7 Wilt Chamberlain 266,5
8 Shaquille O'Neal 266,0
9 Kevin Garnett 247,5
10 Magic Johnson 213,0
11 Kobe Bryant 211,5
12 Oscar Robertson 208,0
13 Karl Malone 200,0
14 Stephen Curry 199,0
15 Dirk Nowitzki 198,5
16 Julius Erving 198,0
17 Jerry West 196,0
18 Larry Bird 196,0
19 Chris Paul 192,5
20 David Robinson 191,5
21 Kevin Durant 188,0
22 Moses Malone 178,0
23 Charles Barkley 171,0
24 Steve Nash 163,5
25 Dwyane Wade 160,0
26 James Harden 152,5
27 John Stockton 146,0
28 Patrick Ewing 144,5
29 Artis Gilmore 140,5
30 John Havlicek 139,5
31 Reggie Miller 137,5
32 Giannis Antetokumpo 135,5
33 George Mikan 134,5
34 Jason Kidd 131,0
35 Scottie Pippen 128,0
36 Rick Barry 127,0
37 Anthony Davis 122,5
38 Nikola Jokic 122,5
39 Bob Pettit 121,0
40 Paul Pierce 121,0
41 George Gervin 118,5
42 Ray Allen 117,0
43 Dolph Schayes 115,5
44 Nate Thurmond 113,5
45 Walt Frazier 111,5
46 Dikembe Mutombo 111,5
47 Elgin Baylor 111,5
48 Bob Lanier 110,5
49 Russell Westbrook 108,0
50 Dwight Howard 107,0
51 Pau Gasol 106,5
52 Clyde Drexler 104,5
53 Jimmy Butler 104,0
54 Gary Payton 104,0
55 Kawhi Leonard 102,5
56 Rasheed Wallace 101,0
57 Wes Unseld 100,5
58 Kevin McHale 100,0
59 Paul Arizin 98,5
60 Elvin Hayes 97,5
61 Robert Parish 97,0
62 Bob Cousy 94,0
63 Alonzo Mourning 90,0
64 Isiah Thomas 89,5
65 Adrian Dantley 89,5
66 Manu Ginobili 89,5
67 Dave Cowens 89,0
68 Allen Iverson 88,5
69 Tracy McGrady 87,5
70 Alex English 87,0
71 Hal Greer 87,0
72 Draymond Green 84,5
73 Tony Parker 83,0
74 Chauncey Billups 82,0
75 Rudy Gobert 81,5
76 Dominique Wilkins 81,0
77 Bobby Jones 80,0
78 Damian Lillard 80,0
79 Vince Carter 78,5
80 Dennis Rodman 77,5
81 Sam Jones 77,0
82 Willis Reed 75,5
83 Ben Wallace 75,0
84 Kevin Johnson 75,0
85 Bob McAdoo 71,5
86 Dennis Rodman 66,5
87 Bill Walton 65,0
88 Luka Doncic 57,5

I think that's all, at this point this methodology doesn't give us clear picture anymore. If you think I missed anyone else, feel free to tell me but I don't think I did.

[penbeast0]

Curious on your Walton rating, I have him as 1 MVP, 1 All-NBA (I can't give MVP to a player who couldn't stay healthy for a quarter of a season AND missed the playoffs), 1 All-Star (SMOY reserve year). I loved the Portland team game but don't see it as a GOAT level peak. I'm assuming that with hindsight, we count playoffs toward awards like the RPOY project?

Connie Hawkins, 1MVP, 1 All-NBA, 1 All-ABA (very arguable, half a year rather than 3/4 but similar to Walton only even more MVP level than Walton's 78 when healthy), 2 All-Star . . . should be higher than Walton if we are ignoring league strengths here.

[AEnigma]

Why would the comparative league strength of the 1968/69 ABA be ignored. Rick Barry was comparable to Hawkins in 1969, and that was not his peak either.

[70sFan]

Curious on your Walton rating, I have him as 1 MVP, 1 All-NBA (I can't give MVP to a player who couldn't stay healthy for a quarter of a season AND missed the playoffs), 1 All-Star (SMOY reserve year). I loved the Portland team game but don't see it as a GOAT level peak. I'm assuming that with hindsight, we count playoffs toward awards like the RPOY project?

Bill Walton:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 1 (1977)
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 1 (1978)
All-nba: 0
All-star: 1 (1976)
Sub all-star: 1 (1985)
Role player: 4 (1975, 1983, 1984, 1986)

I didn't give Walton all-star year for 1986 because he didn't play enough minutes.

Connie Hawkins, 1MVP, 1 All-NBA, 1 All-ABA (very arguable, half a year rather than 3/4 but similar to Walton only even more MVP level than Walton's 78 when healthy), 2 All-Star . . . should be higher than Walton if we are ignoring league strengths here.

I thought about him, but he's not the real threat for most of the players on my list. I included Walton because he's a popular figure. I also included Doncic to see how far he is... and he's very far from top 70. My list doesn't say that Luka is 88th player or Walton is 87th player, Luka wouldn't make my top 100. I just don't think it's constructive to go further with that methodology, because we get less and less separation between players and it's tough to compare two all-star level players with similar longevity this way.

[DQuinn1575]

I just made Dantley evaluation and shockingly, I got the identical career value from him and Thomas

Do you think I overrate Dantley a bit too much here?

Isiah Thomas:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 0
All-nba: 6 (1984-88, 1990)
All-star: 3 (1983, 1989, 1992)
Sub all-star: 2 (1982, 1991)
Role player: 1 (1993)

Adrian Dantley:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 0
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 0
All-nba: 5 (1980-82, 1984-85)
All-star: 3 (1986-88)
Sub all-star: 4 (1977-79, 1989)
Role player: 2 (1983, 1990)

You're probably about right with Dantley, he was that good.
Challenge with Isiah is how to weight his playoff performance, his 88 and 90 playoffs might be Weak MVP.

[DQuinn1575]

Curious on your Walton rating, I have him as 1 MVP, 1 All-NBA (I can't give MVP to a player who couldn't stay healthy for a quarter of a season AND missed the playoffs), 1 All-Star (SMOY reserve year). I loved the Portland team game but don't see it as a GOAT level peak. I'm assuming that with hindsight, we count playoffs toward awards like the RPOY project?

Bill Walton:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 1 (1977)
MVP: 0
Weak MVP: 1 (1978)
All-nba: 0
All-star: 1 (1976)
Sub all-star: 1 (1985)
Role player: 4 (1975, 1983, 1984, 1986)

I didn't give Walton all-star year for 1986 because he didn't play enough minutes.

Connie Hawkins, 1MVP, 1 All-NBA, 1 All-ABA (very arguable, half a year rather than 3/4 but similar to Walton only even more MVP level than Walton's 78 when healthy), 2 All-Star . . . should be higher than Walton if we are ignoring league strengths here.

I thought about him, but he's not the real threat for most of the players on my list. I included Walton because he's a popular figure. I also included Doncic to see how far he is... and he's very far from top 70. My list doesn't say that Luka is 88th player or Walton is 87th player, Luka wouldn't make my top 100. I just don't think it's constructive to go further with that methodology, because we get less and less separation between players and it's tough to compare two all-star level players with similar longevity this way.

Walton played almost as many minutes in 86 versus 85, and was good enough to take minutes away from Parish.

[DQuinn1575]

Added players:

69 Tracy McGrady
70 Alex English
71 Hal Greer
73 Tony Parker
76 Dominique Wilkins
77 Bobby Jones
78 Damian Lillard
81 Sam Jones
84 Kevin Johnson
85 Bob McAdoo
87 Bill Walton

Full list (Manu and Cowens went up due to the re-evaluation of their peaks):

Spoiler:

1 LeBron James 381,0
2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 354,0
3 Bill Russell 310,5
4 Michael Jordan 288,0
5 Tim Duncan 283,0
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 278,5
7 Wilt Chamberlain 266,5
8 Shaquille O'Neal 266,0
9 Kevin Garnett 247,5
10 Magic Johnson 213,0
11 Kobe Bryant 211,5
12 Oscar Robertson 208,0
13 Karl Malone 200,0
14 Stephen Curry 199,0
15 Dirk Nowitzki 198,5
16 Julius Erving 198,0
17 Jerry West 196,0
18 Larry Bird 196,0
19 Chris Paul 192,5
20 David Robinson 191,5
21 Kevin Durant 188,0
22 Moses Malone 178,0
23 Charles Barkley 171,0
24 Steve Nash 163,5
25 Dwyane Wade 160,0
26 James Harden 152,5
27 John Stockton 146,0
28 Patrick Ewing 144,5
29 Artis Gilmore 140,5
30 John Havlicek 139,5
31 Reggie Miller 137,5
32 Giannis Antetokumpo 135,5
33 George Mikan 134,5
34 Jason Kidd 131,0
35 Scottie Pippen 128,0
36 Rick Barry 127,0
37 Anthony Davis 122,5
38 Nikola Jokic 122,5
39 Bob Pettit 121,0
40 Paul Pierce 121,0
41 George Gervin 118,5
42 Ray Allen 117,0
43 Dolph Schayes 115,5
44 Nate Thurmond 113,5
45 Walt Frazier 111,5
46 Dikembe Mutombo 111,5
47 Elgin Baylor 111,5
48 Bob Lanier 110,5
49 Russell Westbrook 108,0
50 Dwight Howard 107,0
51 Pau Gasol 106,5
52 Clyde Drexler 104,5
53 Jimmy Butler 104,0
54 Gary Payton 104,0
55 Kawhi Leonard 102,5
56 Rasheed Wallace 101,0
57 Wes Unseld 100,5
58 Kevin McHale 100,0
59 Paul Arizin 98,5
60 Elvin Hayes 97,5
61 Robert Parish 97,0
62 Bob Cousy 94,0
63 Alonzo Mourning 90,0
64 Isiah Thomas 89,5
65 Adrian Dantley 89,5
66 Manu Ginobili 89,5
67 Dave Cowens 89,0
68 Allen Iverson 88,5
69 Tracy McGrady 87,5
70 Alex English 87,0
71 Hal Greer 87,0
72 Draymond Green 84,5
73 Tony Parker 83,0
74 Chauncey Billups 82,0
75 Rudy Gobert 81,5
76 Dominique Wilkins 81,0
77 Bobby Jones 80,0
78 Damian Lillard 80,0
79 Vince Carter 78,5
80 Dennis Rodman 77,5
81 Sam Jones 77,0
82 Willis Reed 75,5
83 Ben Wallace 75,0
84 Kevin Johnson 75,0
85 Bob McAdoo 71,5
86 Dennis Rodman 66,5
87 Bill Walton 65,0
88 Luka Doncic 57,5

I think that's all, at this point this methodology doesn't give us clear picture anymore. If you think I missed anyone else, feel free to tell me but I don't think I did.

Since they are contemporaries, I'd like to see your year by year for Bird and Magic, and then Michael and Hakeem,
Thanks

[penbeast0]

Why would the comparative league strength of the 1968/69 ABA be ignored. Rick Barry was comparable to Hawkins in 1969, and that was not his peak either.

I don't think he was. Rick put up nice numbers but when he went down with injury (and he, like Hawkins, only played half the year), his team went ahead and won the title led by Warren Jabali and Doug Moe (and Larry Brown though Brown as a player didn't impress me that much). Hawkins's Pipers were in 1st place when he was injured but were unable to compete without him (and other injuries), slid to a losing record and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Hawkins then jumped leagues while Barry returned and led his team to a winning record again but less success than they had without him in the playoffs. Both were great scorers and excellent passers especially for bigs, Hawkins also played well on defense. Both made All-ABA 1st team despite playing only half the season in 1969, but I see Hawkins as clearly a level better pre-injury.

And, yes, I believe you look at everything, including league strength, but 70s Fan's system I was referring to doesn't factor that in that I am aware of.

[penbeast0]

Walton played almost as many minutes in 86 versus 85, and was good enough to take minutes away from Parish.

Walton was an amazing story but still only played reserve minutes in 86 (and started only about half the games for the Clippers in 85 that he played in). For illustration, 3rd guard Jerry Sichting played both more minutes and more minutes per game than Walton in the 86 regular season as Walton played only 19.3 minutes a game. He did play more minutes per game than Sichting in the playoffs but both played less than the RS as reserves tend to do, Walton playing 18.3 and Sichting only 15.2.

[AEnigma]

Why would the comparative league strength of the 1968/69 ABA be ignored. Rick Barry was comparable to Hawkins in 1969, and that was not his peak either.

I don't think he was. Rick put up nice numbers but when he went down with injury (and he, like Hawkins, only played half the year), his team went ahead and won the title led by Warren Jabali and Doug Moe (and Larry Brown though Brown as a player didn't impress me that much). Hawkins's Pipers were in 1st place when he was injured but were unable to compete without him (and other injuries), slid to a losing record and were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

Hawkins then jumped leagues while Barry returned and led his team to a winning record again but less success than they had without him in the playoffs. Both were great scorers and excellent passers especially for bigs, Hawkins also played well on defense. Both made All-ABA 1st team despite playing only half the season in 1969, but I see Hawkins as clearly a level better pre-injury.

On the subject of “they won without him then were worse and lost in the first round with him”: Yes, after losing Doug Moe for the entire season, losing Warren Jabali for half the season and the playoffs, and also losing one of the two best coaches in the history of the sport at that point, they were in fact unable to recreate the same success with (a less comparatively productive) Barry, and rather than again defeating the team they beat in seven games the prior year, they instead lost in seven games to that same team which had since added the league MVP. How damning.

On the subject of “Connie’s team collapsed and Barry’s did not, ergo, Connie was better”: If we were sincerely committed to this logic, 1969 Warren Jabali was a much better player than Connie and the true superstar of that Oaks team anyway, and by a similar process, Bill Walton was much better than Kareem.

1977/78 Blazers: +15.7 (champions) with Walton, -4.8 (first round exit) without Walton
1977/78 Lakers: +6.7 with Kareem, -1.5 without Kareem

With further reflection, I do not even need to restrict myself to Walton.

1977/78 Pistons: +0.5 with Lanier, -17.4 without Lanier