Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[sunskerr]

Hey y'all, Suns fan here obviously,

What's the scouting report on Jordan Goodwin? Current skill set, ceiling, etc.? How do you feel about him being included in the Beal trade?

I assume not too many are flustered but he seems like he has solid defense and role player potential.

Cheers.

[joshuacf]

Spoiler:

The trade wasn't atrocious. It was the best we could do given Beal's control. & it was actually pretty clever.

As I've written in another thread, right now even at 38 years old Chris Paul is a far far better player than Bradley Beal -- it isn't even close. In a way I wish CP3 would remain a Wizard for a season: swapping him in for Beal would probably add 5 wins all on its own!

But... it's not in the cards: Winger will move CP3 to the Clippers; until we see what the return is on that move there's no real way to judge this deal.

I much prefer this deal to taking on Herro's overpaid, guaranteed contract along w/ Robinson's in a deal with Miami.

As to Shamet, I liked him as a late R1 pick in 2018, & he had a good rookie season as well. He's gone downhill since then, I don't know why, & even at his best he is a journeyman.

If we're also getting 6 R2 picks -- or even 4 -- that adds value as well.

I think we just disagree about how good CP3 is at this point.

If CP3 is indeed a far better player at this point than Beal is, why are the Clippers giving us multiple second-round picks in order to exchange CP3 for Beal? You might say that their assessment is off, but it seems like the majority of the NBA think CP3 is on his last legs and we got fleeced in this deal.

CP3 is only going downhill from here. He'll probably be worse this year than he was last year. IMO, hopefully we can flip him to the Clippers for something.

1. I don't have an "opinion" about CP3 as a player -- neither now nor in his prime. I just look at what he does on the court, as that activity is represented in numbers. We can't disagree about numbers....

On that basis, CP3 was easily among the top 10 PGs in the league last year. Is that at the level of his performance in his prime years? No. For about a decade, he was among the top 3-5 players in the league -- all positions. Based on his numbers.

2. Is CP3 "going downhill from here?" Sure! Then again, so is Bradley Beal. Nor does Chris Paul have as much trouble as Brad staying healthy.

3. What evidence is there that CP3 is "on his last legs?"
Is it that he was 4th in the league among PGs in number of assists per 40 minutes (& @ 1 away from leading the league!)? Overall, almost all his numbers were right at his career average (some a little above, a couple a little below) with one exception: his 2pt % was somewhat down.

4. Why did Phoenix give us a better player & a bunch of picks for Brad?
That one's easy to answer too.
Phoenix is being run by an extremely rich amateur who just bought the team!

A month ago the guy fired Monty Williams, one of the best coaches in the business. Why? Because having traded away the heart of his young core to get KD, he still didn't win a title.

In short, if you think that Bradley Beal right now is as productive a player as Chris Paul right now, to me it seems clear that the facts -- the numbers! -- say that you are wrong.

OTOH, if you think that we could have gotten more for Brad if he didn't have a no-trade clause, you are right. There's no doubt about it. That's for two reasons, obviously:

1. more teams would have been in the picture (increasing the competition)
2. teams would offer more for a player who didn't come to them with a no-trade clause!

Given the situation as it was, I am mightily impressed by Winger/Dawkins being able to make what I think was a clever trade.

Edit: I do admit to being annoyed that Brad forced them to include his protege Jordan Goodwin. I'd rather have Goodwin than Shamet....

Both CP3 and Beal are going downhill, but CP3 is 38 and Beal is 29. So I think CP3 is going downhill at a much faster rate than Beal is.

In terms of what evidence there is that CP3 is on his last legs, I'm sure you won't like this, but his RAPTOR numbers were career lows. His RPM dropped significantly from 21-22 to 22-23. In terms of non-advanced stats, his PPG dropped on the same volume. HIs TS% was the lowest it's been since his second year in the league.

And then in terms of Beal vs. CP3, by the numbers, what numbers are you looking at? Paul has more assists, but Beal greatly outscores Paul. Beal had a significantly better TS%.

Now don't get me wrong, last year, CP3 was still a solid PG. He may still be a solid PG this year. But usually when you see an aging player trending down, it means they will continue to trend down. Even if you want to say that Beal and CP3 were similar last year, CP3 being a decade older means there is a much greater chance of a precipitous falloff for CP3 than Beal.

[DCZards]

joshuacf is right. Any comparisons of the value and future of Beal and Paul has to start with their ages. Not what they’ve done in the past.

Big edge to BB in that regard.

[80sballboy]

Hey y'all, Suns fan here obviously,

What's the scouting report on Jordan Goodwin? Current skill set, ceiling, etc.? How do you feel about him being included in the Beal trade?

I assume not too many are flustered but he seems like he has solid defense and role player potential.

Cheers.

Good defender. Tough and physical player. Not great athlete or shooter, but isn't a bad shooter. Pretty unselfish. Going to do the dirty work. Doesn't mind throwing his body around and taking charges. A poor man's Marcus Smart.

[payitforward]

joshuacf is right. Any comparisons of the value and future of Beal and Paul has to start with their ages. Not what they’ve done in the past....

There is no doubt that Chris Paul is older than Bradley Beal. By 8 years & 8 weeks.
There is no doubt, as well, that the difference in their ages must be taken into account in assessing their value as players.

Going forward, that is. & that is obviously central when it's their value in a trade that we're assessing. & in that sense, only a fool would not recognize that Brad has more NBA seasons in front of him than Chris Paul has!

Thus, even though the then 37-year old Chris Paul was a much much better NBA player than 29-year old Brad in the '22-23 season (not to mention more durable, given that he played 13% more minutes than Brad)...

& even though the then-36 year old Chris Paul was a much much much much better player than the then 28-year old Brad in the '21-22 season (not to mention way way more durable, given that he played almost 49% more minutes than Brad that year)...

& even though the then-35 year old Chris Paul was a FAR better player than the then 27-year old Brad in the shortene '20-21 season ...

& so on, through every single season of Bradley Beal's career..

still, we do have to expect that Bradley Beal has more seasons in him going forward than does Chris Paul.

Given how good Chris Paul just was at 37 & how rarely he's ever been injured, it seems fair to suggest that he ought to have at least 2 more really good years in him -- i.e. years in which he's a better player than Brad (keeping in mind that being better than Brad is not much of an issue for someone on the level of Chris Paul).

OTOH Brad -- even though he lost significant time to injury last season, & he also lost even more time to injury the previous season -- ought to be able to play out his $45m/year contract. At least.

Yet, his play has obviously declined over the last few years, so it's speculative to say how good he'll be going forward from now.

In '20-21, he was bad, it's the only word that fits, in '21-22. He started '22-23 extremely strongly but declined a lot -- a whole lot -- over the last 2/3 of the season.

Still, as incontrovertible as the above facts are, & as obvious as it is that one would expect Chris Paul to outperform Bradley Beal in the '23 season (to outperform him easily & by a lot, I mean), the difference in their ages is such that I would certainly have hesitated before trading Brad straight up for him, & in fact I almost certainly wouldn't have done the trade.

Nor would I have traded Jordan Goodwin for Landry Shamet. Hence, obviously, not Paul & Shamet for Beal & Goodwin.

Then again, that's not the trade we made. We also got a bunch of R2 picks. What we are able to do with those picks will also figure into the calculus of this trade.

Now... don't get me wrong! I'm not suggesting that we'll find the equivalent of Nikola Jokic, come on! Or even

Spoiler:

Jordan Clarkson, Hassan Whiteside, Lance Stephenson, Bojan Bogdanovic, Davis Bertans, E'TWaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Sato, Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, Scott, O'quinn, Muscala, Joe Harris, Spence, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, Osman, Montrezl, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Malcolm Brogdon, Georges Niang, Thomas Bryant, Dillon Brooks, Monte Morris, Jevon Carter, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Devonte Graham, Gary Trent Jr., Jarred Vanderbilt, Bruce Brown, Hamidou Diallo, DeAnthony Milton, Svi Mykhailiuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Shake Milton, Kenrich Williams, Cody Martin, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin, Bol Bol, Terance Mann, Xavier Tillman, Tre Jones, Kevin Martin, Jr. Isaiah Joe, Paul Reed, Nick Richards, Sam Hauser, Jereemiah Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, Ayo Dosunmu, Isaiah Livers, Kessler Edwards, Jericho Sims, Charles Bassey, Luka Garza, Sharife Cooper, Brandon Boston, Aaron Wiggins or JT Thor....

-- but still, you never know, right? You could probably pick 6 worthwhile players from that list, don't you think? Just maybe...?

Still, the truth is we probably won't hold on to CP3. We'll probably move him -- who knows we might have already done it while I typed this post! Personally, I hope we keep him for a season -- or at least until the deadline! But, it doesn't seem likely....

[PaulinVA]

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[TGW]

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Windhorst didn’t indicate if the Clippers will make any effort to trade for Paul. The Wizards could release the veteran by June 28 and only be on the hook for $15.8 million of the $60.8 million remaining on his contract.

If this is the case, they're going to cut him, right? I don't see why they'd be willing to pay filler salary from the Clippers or Lakers for the rights to some crummy late round picks.

[FAH1223]

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Windhorst didn’t indicate if the Clippers will make any effort to trade for Paul. The Wizards could release the veteran by June 28 and only be on the hook for $15.8 million of the $60.8 million remaining on his contract.

If this is the case, they're going to cut him, right? I don't see why they'd be willing to pay filler salary from the Clippers or Lakers for the rights to some crummy late round picks.

I don't see why they'd waive him for nothing. CP3 is a professional. If he's going to start the season in DC, he will report just as he did with OKC for 2019-20 when everyone thought he'd get dealt before the season. He has a relationship with Will Dawkins too.

I think right now they try to find that 3rd team to flip him to. If it doesn't materialize, CP3 will be a very valuable trade piece at the deadline with that contract essentially having no guarantees for 2024-25.

[pcbothwel]

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Windhorst didn’t indicate if the Clippers will make any effort to trade for Paul. The Wizards could release the veteran by June 28 and only be on the hook for $15.8 million of the $60.8 million remaining on his contract.

If this is the case, they're going to cut him, right? I don't see why they'd be willing to pay filler salary from the Clippers or Lakers for the rights to some crummy late round picks.

I dont think this is right. His outgoing salary is the lesser of his current salary (22/23) or the guaranteed amount this year (23/24). That is why they had to increase the guaranteed amount from 15M => 25M to make the trade work.

[80sballboy]

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[dckingsfan]

With Paul coming in for a year, I guess you move either Wright or Morris, right?

And then next year we get the same PG panic - LOL!

[FAH1223]

With Paul coming in for a year, I guess you move either Wright or Morris, right?

And then next year we get the same PG panic - LOL!

Maybe you draft Anthony Black. And he is tutored by CP3. As SGA was in 2019-20.

[dckingsfan]

With Paul coming in for a year, I guess you move either Wright or Morris, right?

And then next year we get the same PG panic - LOL!

Maybe you draft Anthony Black. And he is tutored by CP3. As SGA was in 2019-20.

Hadn't considered that... who do you move, Wright, Morris or both?

[TGW]

I don't see why they'd waive him for nothing.

Well, they'd save about $45 million before June 28, if that article is correct. If that's the case, then I could see them opting for the savings vs. keeping the player and hoping he gets something at the deadline.

[mhd]

I don't expect CP3 to be here for one second. I also expect Wright & Morris to be gone. We need to be undoubtedly the worst team in the NBA next year. Wright hurt us last year by being so good and winning games with his excellent defense.

[dckingsfan]

I don't expect CP3 to be here for one second. I also expect Wright & Morris to be gone. We need to be undoubtedly the worst team in the NBA next year. Wright hurt us last year by being so good and winning games with his excellent defense.

Then you don't expect Porzingis to be here either?

[FAH1223]

I don't see why they'd waive him for nothing.

Well, they'd save about $45 million before June 28, if that article is correct. If that's the case, then I could see them opting for the savings vs. keeping the player and hoping he gets something at the deadline.

CP3 is probably getting most or all of his $30M guaranteed to make the trade work for 2023-24. I've read anywhere form $25M to the full $30M will be guaranteed to make the trade work. So the savings on waiving him are minimal if any.

His $30M for 2024-25 is not guaranteed. That's a huge chip at the deadline.

I don't expect CP3 to be here for one second. I also expect Wright & Morris to be gone. We need to be undoubtedly the worst team in the NBA next year. Wright hurt us last year by being so good and winning games with his excellent defense.

The 2024 NBA Draft isn't good. They will almost certainly have a veteran PG in that room.

[nate33]

I figure the simplest, best trade would be Paul to the Lakers for the #17, Mo Bamba, and Malik Beasley.

[mhd]

I figure the simplest, best trade would be Paul to the Lakers for the #17, Mo Bamba, and Malik Beasley.

I think the Lakers are too smart to give up the 17th pick. They have to pay Reeves and potentially Rui. Beasley has a team option. I expect them to think we'll waive CP3 and they can offer much more money as a MLE vs the Clippers who can only offer the vet min.

[NatP4]

I figure the simplest, best trade would be Paul to the Lakers for the #17, Mo Bamba, and Malik Beasley.

And in the end, not so much different than the Heat return.