Re: Trade Talk (Part Twelve): 2023 Playoff Push Edition

[fattymcgee]

Wow Beal basically salary dumped for 2nd round picks.
He had a no trade clause, but Washington didn't HAVE to trade him.
They are taking on 25 million in dead money this year just to dump the last 3 years of Beal at 50+ million per.

They wouldn't have gotten much more from Portland or Miami (not willing to even include Herro's bad contract) or anyone else, regardless of a no trade clause. They might have ended up with Ayton instead of Paul, who's on a bad max contract himself.

This bodes very very poorly for a present or future KAT or Rudy trade. Beal is a better player than both, but he is also a supermax guy entering his 30's. This trade probably makes Gobert a negative contract and devalues KAT, who is a couple years younger but is signed for a year longer than Beal. Either will have to significantly outperform last year to have much trade value next summer.

And don't count on a cap spike to save us from ourselves. The new CBA has cap smoothing in place which limits increases in the cap to 10% per year.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/271018/New-NBA-CBA-Includes-Cap-Smoothing-Provision#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20avoid%20another%20spike%2C%20the%20NBA,balance%20to%20free%20agent%20classes%20over%20multiple%20years.

Next offseason is going to be brutal for us. We will basically have to go into the supertax to keep conley and anderson, and if for some reason conley is not back, our options will be very very limited to replace him.

Best case scenario and the current iteration of this team gels this year, we are in tax hell for '24 and '25 and then retooling without Conley, Slo-Mo, or Rudy in '26.

You people need to realize that Beal has a no trade clause. He only agreed to be traded to two or three teams. Those teams didn't have much to offer so either Wash takes a crap offer or keeps Beal.
Personally I would've kept Beal then. Or force him to rescind the no trade clause if he wanted out.

[younggunsmn]

Wow Beal basically salary dumped for 2nd round picks.
He had a no trade clause, but Washington didn't HAVE to trade him.
They are taking on 25 million in dead money this year just to dump the last 3 years of Beal at 50+ million per.

They wouldn't have gotten much more from Portland or Miami (not willing to even include Herro's bad contract) or anyone else, regardless of a no trade clause. They might have ended up with Ayton instead of Paul, who's on a bad max contract himself.

This bodes very very poorly for a present or future KAT or Rudy trade. Beal is a better player than both, but he is also a supermax guy entering his 30's. This trade probably makes Gobert a negative contract and devalues KAT, who is a couple years younger but is signed for a year longer than Beal. Either will have to significantly outperform last year to have much trade value next summer.

And don't count on a cap spike to save us from ourselves. The new CBA has cap smoothing in place which limits increases in the cap to 10% per year.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/271018/New-NBA-CBA-Includes-Cap-Smoothing-Provision#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20avoid%20another%20spike%2C%20the%20NBA,balance%20to%20free%20agent%20classes%20over%20multiple%20years.

Next offseason is going to be brutal for us. We will basically have to go into the supertax to keep conley and anderson, and if for some reason conley is not back, our options will be very very limited to replace him.

Best case scenario and the current iteration of this team gels this year, we are in tax hell for '24 and '25 and then retooling without Conley, Slo-Mo, or Rudy in '26.

You people need to realize that Beal has a no trade clause. He only agreed to be traded to two or three teams. Those teams didn't have much to offer so either Wash takes a crap offer or keeps Beal.
Personally I would've kept Beal then. Or force him to rescind the no trade clause if he wanted out.

They could have played hardball too on the no-trade clause if he wanted out and drug things out, or kept him, as you said.
They clearly wanted off of his supermax contract badly to do this trade.

This is the first big contract traded after the new CBA was signed, and not a great precedent for us.

[lewdog]

With the realities of the new CBA and how it effects the future of our Wolves, I think many of us who post trades on this forum have mostly ignored the unbelievable financial crisis we are in. Specifically, the recent Kat proposed trades IMHO have greatly ignored the liability that his contract has become. With the Beal trade, we now have an honest glimpse of what a very skilled but often injured player, who also has a 50 plus million-dollar contract is worth in today’s NBA. It should be ominous to all of us, that Kat’s worth possibly is only a fraction of what we all think it should be. So sadly, let me be one of the first to say, we aren’t going to get a top 10 pick for Kat. We’re also not going to get a starting point guard for him either. And it’s not because of his talent, it’s the contract.

[Neeva]

Wow Beal basically salary dumped for 2nd round picks.
He had a no trade clause, but Washington didn't HAVE to trade him.
They are taking on 25 million in dead money this year just to dump the last 3 years of Beal at 50+ million per.

They wouldn't have gotten much more from Portland or Miami (not willing to even include Herro's bad contract) or anyone else, regardless of a no trade clause. They might have ended up with Ayton instead of Paul, who's on a bad max contract himself.

This bodes very very poorly for a present or future KAT or Rudy trade. Beal is a better player than both, but he is also a supermax guy entering his 30's. This trade probably makes Gobert a negative contract and devalues KAT, who is a couple years younger but is signed for a year longer than Beal. Either will have to significantly outperform last year to have much trade value next summer.

And don't count on a cap spike to save us from ourselves. The new CBA has cap smoothing in place which limits increases in the cap to 10% per year.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/271018/New-NBA-CBA-Includes-Cap-Smoothing-Provision#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20avoid%20another%20spike%2C%20the%20NBA,balance%20to%20free%20agent%20classes%20over%20multiple%20years.

Next offseason is going to be brutal for us. We will basically have to go into the supertax to keep conley and anderson, and if for some reason conley is not back, our options will be very very limited to replace him.

Best case scenario and the current iteration of this team gels this year, we are in tax hell for '24 and '25 and then retooling without Conley, Slo-Mo, or Rudy in '26.

You people need to realize that Beal has a no trade clause. He only agreed to be traded to two or three teams. Those teams didn't have much to offer so either Wash takes a crap offer or keeps Beal.
Personally I would've kept Beal then. Or force him to rescind the no trade clause if he wanted out.

Right washington just bent over.

[shrink]

You people need to realize that Beal has a no trade clause. He only agreed to be traded to two or three teams. Those teams didn't have much to offer so either Wash takes a crap offer or keeps Beal.
Personally I would've kept Beal then. Or force him to rescind the no trade clause if he wanted out.

They could have played hardball too on the no-trade clause if he wanted out and drug things out, or kept him, as you said.
They clearly wanted off of his supermax contract badly to do this trade.

This is the first big contract traded after the new CBA was signed, and not a great precedent for us.

Yes, and he could have only agreed to be traded to one team. That means we don’t know what 28 teams would have offered, and #29, PHX, had no reason to bid against themselves. We can’t extrapolate anything about leaguewide trade value from any deal when there is a No Trade Clause, because there is no league-wide auction setting a market price.

As for keeping Beal, that wasn’t going to happen. When a superstar player, who has given so much to your franchise for years, wants to be traded, you trade him. Or, if you’re not into altruism, if your front office decides to keep a superstar player against his will, don’t expect any other elite free agents to come to your team for the next five years. Some MIN fans have very short memories of the perils of keeping a star player when he asks to be traded.

[Neeva]

Wizards will never be a elite free agent destination, even if they think they come off well playing “the nice guy” and letting Beal get his way 100 percent at their expense. Wizards should have waited for a team to get desperate and pay more at the deadline, were they afraid those second round picks wouldn’t be on the table then??

[theGreatRC]

That Wizards trade is disgustingly bad, i feel bad for their fan base.

[Calinks]

If anything, this is probably an end to the no-trade clause. They got totally shafted.

[SO_MONEY]

You people need to realize that Beal has a no trade clause. He only agreed to be traded to two or three teams. Those teams didn't have much to offer so either Wash takes a crap offer or keeps Beal.
Personally I would've kept Beal then. Or force him to rescind the no trade clause if he wanted out.

They could have played hardball too on the no-trade clause if he wanted out and drug things out, or kept him, as you said.
They clearly wanted off of his supermax contract badly to do this trade.

This is the first big contract traded after the new CBA was signed, and not a great precedent for us.

Yes, and he could have only agreed to be traded to one team. That means we don’t know what 28 teams would have offered, and #29, PHX, had no reason to bid against themselves. We can’t extrapolate anything about leaguewide trade value from any deal when there is a No Trade Clause, because there is no league-wide auction setting a market price.

As for keeping Beal, that wasn’t going to happen. When a superstar player, who has given so much to your franchise for years, wants to be traded, you trade him. Or, if you’re not into altruism, if your front office decides to keep a superstar player against his will, don’t expect any other elite free agents to come to your team for the next five years. Some MIN fans have very short memories of the perils of keeping a star player when he asks to be traded.

Correct! With the exception of the reality it isn't really a matter of bidding against themselves, Beal himself needed to sign off on the trade. So he could effectively demand something be included or not. The trade was just as much a matter of what Beal was okay with. This wasn't market value, it wasn't bellwether of trade value.

[Macwolf527]

With the realities of the new CBA and how it effects the future of our Wolves, I think many of us who post trades on this forum have mostly ignored the unbelievable financial crisis we are in. Specifically, the recent Kat proposed trades IMHO have greatly ignored the liability that his contract has become. With the Beal trade, we now have an honest glimpse of what a very skilled but often injured player, who also has a 50 plus million-dollar contract is worth in today’s NBA. It should be ominous to all of us, that Kat’s worth possibly is only a fraction of what we all think it should be. So sadly, let me be one of the first to say, we aren’t going to get a top 10 pick for Kat. We’re also not going to get a starting point guard for him either. And it’s not because of his talent, it’s the contract.

LewDog, I see two holes in this argument. One is the No Trade clause in Beal's contract that controlled where he could be traded. This prevents a bidding war among teams to elevate his value, especially if the other team's that he ok'd are not in a position to put together a viable trade package with the players on their roster. This year's draft is topheavy with guards and most of them need the ball in their hands to develop. Beal's presence would hinder this process and it's apparent the Wizards are turning towards rebuilding. Beal is about to be on the wrong side of 30 and he's played about 63% of his team's games the last 4 years.

Two, post players typically have a greater longevity that SG's that are 6'4" or shorter. While Towns and Beal are two years apart in age, KAT is more likely to equate to the value of his contract than Beal. After 11 years in the league, you can argue that Beal is nearing his decline, while KAT is just entering his prime. KAT's injuries may have saved him a bit of wear and tear, and I would argue that prior to the wrist injury, Towns was pretty durable, so I wouldn't consider him injury prone, unlucky maybe, but not injury prone.

You'd have to play him a bit this upcoming season to regain his value, but I HIGHLY doubt his trade package is any similar to what the Wizards got for Beal.

[Norseman79]

Competing in the West if we stay healthy really only requires a few small moves and signings...a simple trade that nets an average starting PG is big as is resigning NAW and NAZ. Would Prince, Moore, and a 2nd be enough for Suggs?

PG- Suggs, Conley
SG- Edwards, Walker
SF- McDaniels, Minott or good shooting fa
PF- Towns, Anderson
C - Gobert, Reid

Conley shifting to a backup in which we can monitor his minutes and play him in key moments in the game would help keep him fresh for playoffs. I'm not saying that we have a championship team there, but health provided it should be top four. With the likelihood of Kat staying, We are probably looking at one or two small trades and possibly some cuts to clear enough space to resign our guys and maybe land one more starter.

[twolves31]

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-intel-report-damian-lillard-conundrum-bradley-beal-fever-draft-positioning

Some interesting info from Matt Moore. "The Blazers have been focused on moving center Jusuf Nurkic, sources say, and this is the most crucial component in their situation. The Blazers can score, but they have to be able to defend. Lillard can’t effectively get over screens, meaning you need a versatile defensive center next to him."

I don't suppose Gobert has that kind of trade value to be that defensive center next to Lillard?

The end of the article also say's Tyus is someone he is confident will be moved by the end of the Summer. Some wolves posters would like to bring him back home.

[gandlogo]

Gobert and Prince to Atlanta for Capela and Collins (not that Atlanta would do it)
Towns to Charlotte for Scoot

Hopefully free up enough $$$ for Reid.

A backcourt pairing of Ant and Scoot would be sublime.

[urinesane]

Gobert and Prince to Atlanta for Capela and Collins (not that Atlanta would do it)
Towns to Charlotte for Scoot

Hopefully free up enough $$$ for Reid.

A backcourt pairing of Ant and Scoot would be sublime.

They'd also probably miss the playoffs.

[shrink]

Gobert and Prince to Atlanta for Capela and Collins (not that Atlanta would do it)
Towns to Charlotte for Scoot

Hopefully free up enough $$$ for Reid.

A backcourt pairing of Ant and Scoot would be sublime.

Get rid of our All-NBA players and swing for the play in?

For the record, the Wolves were the #2 defense in the NBA when Rudy was on the floor, in his down year. Offensively, DLo and Ant couldn’t feed him for the first three quarters of the season. I’m excited about what we could see with the current team and some training time together.

[Calinks]

I would definitely consider trading Rudy if a solid enough deal came along.

[minimus]

What I am seeing:

Beal
Zion
Towns
Ayton
Jaylen Brown

They all are being mentioned in rumors for a reason, they are paid as stars, but they have underperformed in playoffs. New CBA just make this question even more urgent: are you really willing to pay all this money to these guys?

[gandlogo]

Gobert and Prince to Atlanta for Capela and Collins (not that Atlanta would do it)
Towns to Charlotte for Scoot

Hopefully free up enough $$$ for Reid.

A backcourt pairing of Ant and Scoot would be sublime.

Get rid of our All-NBA players and swing for the play in?

For the record, the Wolves were the #2 defense in the NBA when Rudy was on the floor, in his down year. Offensively, DLo and Ant couldn’t feed him for the first three quarters of the season. I’m excited about what we could see with the current team and some training time together.

I'm shooting for an NBA title, not a play-in. And I think Charlotte knows what they have in Scoot and believe (as do I) that he's going to be really good, so it will take resources to get him (and he won't likely be available at three). It's a guard-driven league.

I'm doubting many outside of Wolves fans consider Towns or Gobert all-NBA, despite having that tag on their respective resumes. And the Wolves are spending a crap ton on two players that play a position that continues to be less important in the NBA. It's clear Towns can't defend on the perimeter and Gobert can't do anything outside of the paint (in addition to being worthless on offense). So from an allocation of resources standpoint, I would take lesser versions of Towns and Gobert if it came with Scoot and Reid as well.

We want the same thing - we just have different visions on how to get there.

[urinesane]

Gobert and Prince to Atlanta for Capela and Collins (not that Atlanta would do it)
Towns to Charlotte for Scoot

Hopefully free up enough $$$ for Reid.

A backcourt pairing of Ant and Scoot would be sublime.

Get rid of our All-NBA players and swing for the play in?

For the record, the Wolves were the #2 defense in the NBA when Rudy was on the floor, in his down year. Offensively, DLo and Ant couldn’t feed him for the first three quarters of the season. I’m excited about what we could see with the current team and some training time together.

I'm shooting for an NBA title, not a play-in. And I think Charlotte knows what they have in Scoot and believe (as do I) that he's going to be really good, so it will take resources to get him (and he won't likely be available at three). It's a guard-driven league.

I'm doubting many outside of Wolves fans consider Towns or Gobert all-NBA, despite having that tag on their respective resumes. And the Wolves are spending a crap ton on two players that play a position that continues to be less important in the NBA. It's clear Towns can't defend on the perimeter and Gobert can't do anything outside of the paint (in addition to being worthless on offense). So from an allocation of resources standpoint, I would take lesser versions of Towns and Gobert if it came with Scoot and Reid as well.

We want the same thing - we just have different visions on how to get there.

Trade two players that have been voted All-NBA multiple times (not by their fans or franchises) for a lottery ticket?

That makes sense to you?

[Klomp]

A lot of discourse about the Beal trade, and I get it. However, I wouldn't rule out Washington being better than people think next year. I actually kinda like Paul and Porzingis as the headliners for a team, with youth all around them.