Re: Trade Talk (Part Twelve): 2023 Playoff Push Edition

[jpatrick]

What I am seeing:

Beal
Zion
Towns
Ayton
Jaylen Brown

They all are being mentioned in rumors for a reason, they are paid as stars, but they have underperformed in playoffs. New CBA just make this question even more urgent: are you really willing to pay all this money to these guys?

I think market correction was coming with or without the new CBA. The Gobert trade was disgusting at the time and just got worse (Walker Kessler was just listed as #31 on NBA trade value based on youth, contract, and future. Rudy didn’t make the list). But I’m not sure Durant gets that return with the new CBA either.

The guys listed definitely will have values depressed because you can only have a couple guys on maxes going forward without getting into tax completions. This is even more so for the super max guys like Towns/Rudy.

I think Zion probably has the most value on that list because of pure upside. Every second he’s played, he’s been dominant and led to winning. Last year when he got injured, he was probably to 3 in MVP voting. Someone will take that risk. It wouldn’t shock me if it was Portland for their pick.

This is a reason Towns won’t be traded this year. We simply won’t get real value, ie a future star in return. We’d get more than Beal but Beal returned nothing because of the no-trade. I think most likely we run it back, are a mid-seed in the West, getting bounced in the first or second round. And then trade Rudy and/or Towns next offseason for very little return. No owner, including ours, will want to pay that much in tax and roster limits for a team that isn’t a championship contender.

[Battletrigger]

There are people that live in the past or think that the problems are going to fix magicly.

I am not a Towns fan, it's well known but I think that he has become to clown and might be a big distraction. Without counting in the impact that his nonsense can impact the team and young players.

[shrink]

I know there is a lot of drama you are reading and hearing in podcasts about a retrenching of big salaries, because the superlux has gotten all the headlines. But guys, this is not close to the whole story.

Up to this point, the general rule of thumb would be for most teams to try to keep their payroll just under the luxury threshold. This kept their total payroll competitive, they paid no lux taxes (double for adding that one extra guy over the lux), plus they got a share of the lux taxes collected that year. A few teams (including Denver, owned by rich Wal-Mart heirs) had NEVER paid lux taxes. Each year, usually about 4-6 teams would exceed the lux, generally teams that were mid-market title contenders, and lately, a few teams that had owners that were just so rich, they just didn’t care, particularly in markets where they could offset those salaries with higher ticket prices and local tv deals.

The Players and Owners got together in the last CBA and recognized the problem. Rich teams/owners would always have access to the most expensive stars, and have an unfair advantage over the rest. So to prevent the richest owners from simply buying titles, they put in rule changes that had big financial penalties, but also contained penalties that tied the hands of their GMs if they kept spending, like losing the MLE, tighter trade rules, sacrificing a future pick to be #30, etc.

BUT AT THE SAME TIME they included rules to make it more cost-effective for the other 26-28 teams to cross the lux threshold. Obviously the players weren’t going to stand for including a virtual hard cap with the penalties of the super lux, without a payroll increase elsewhere. The new CBA encourages teams to cross the lux by reducing lux penalties, broadening the size of lux spacing so it’s easier to add salary before a tier rising, reducing the repeater tax, a new TV deal and including a new source of income ($160 mil) to be included in the salary cap. The effect of this rule will be MORE, not LESS money will be spent on salaries by the 30 NBA teams, even if the top 2-3 might have to retrench. (More)

[shrink]

(Continued). So what will the landscape for the 30 NBA teams look like?

Already the salary cap will rise so much that $180 mil will be the first year payroll that teams will try to stay under - and it will rise fast. Teams will be able to carry two max deal players, 4-5 vet min deals, 3 two-ways, and comfortably fit their team under that number. Some will make teams with one, some may try three or four (PHX might have jumped into that mix with the Beal trade), but if each team averages two, that is plenty of room for the TOP SIXTY players to get paid.

For the people that don’t think max and supermax deals are worth it, I invite you to create a competitive team without the top 60 players. You better hit those multiple superstar rookies perfectly in the draft, and they better learn immediately, before you need to pay them! This is why you shouldn’t sweat Towns trade value, if you’re concerned about his paycheck. Owners can (and almost “must”) afford star players to win games and sell tickets.

Now, it’s true that things will be tight in MIN next year with three, plus a well-paid McDaniels. But that pressure will ease, even if the Wolves did nothing. The cap will continue to rise, faster than the raises the CBA allows. By rule, any max deal is based on the salary cap the year it is signed for - the following years are not tied to salary cap increases. In other words, Towns will get 35% of the 2024-25 salary cap when his extension kicks in. He will get less than 35% of the 2025-26 cap. And to be clear, that’s not 35% of the payroll, which is a much higher number.

So I’m saying, don’t freak out by all the press talking about the big penalties for the superlux. Yes, they are severe, but those are isolated for just a couple teams. The rest of the NBA will be looking for places to get talent when they want to spend more money.

[urinesane]

There are people that live in the past or think that the problems are going to fix magicly.

I am not a Towns fan, it's well known but I think that he has become to clown and might be a big distraction. Without counting in the impact that his nonsense can impact the team and young players.

So you basically say that you are biased and then say something biased.

KAT has never been a distraction. He is awkward, says cringey stuff, and often tries too hard to please others... but he isn't a distraction. It's just you filtering everything through your dislike of him.

[urinesane]

(Continued). So what will the landscape for the 30 NBA teams look like?

Already the salary cap will rise so much that $180 mil will be the first year payroll that teams will try to stay under - and it will rise fast. Teams will be able to carry two max deal players, 4-5 vet min deals, 3 two-ways, and comfortably fit their team under that number. Some will make teams with one, some may try three or four (PHX might have jumped into that mix with the Beal trade), but if each team averages two, that is plenty of room for the TOP SIXTY players to get paid.

For the people that don’t think max and supermax deals are worth it, I invite you to create a competitive team without the top 60 players. You better hit those multiple superstar rookies perfectly in the draft, and they better learn immediately, before you need to pay them! This is why you shouldn’t sweat Towns trade value, if you’re concerned about his paycheck. Owners can (and almost “must”) afford star players to win games and sell tickets.

Now, it’s true that things will be tight in MIN next year with three, plus a well-paid McDaniels. But that pressure will ease, even if the Wolves did nothing. The cap will continue to rise, faster than the raises the CBA allows. By rule, any max deal is based on the salary cap the year it is signed for - the following years are not tied to salary cap increases. In other words, Towns will get 35% of the 2024-25 salary cap when his extension kicks in. He will get less than 35% of the 2025-26 cap. And to be clear, that’s not 35% of the payroll, which is a much higher number.

So I’m saying, don’t freak out by all the press talking about the big penalties for the superlux. Yes, they are severe, but those are isolated for just a couple teams. The rest of the NBA will be looking for places to get talent when they want to spend more money.

Great posts.

I think the issue with even having these discussions is that everyone filters things through their own bias and then project that as if it's reality, when really it's just a way to confirm their own bias'. I am certainly guilty of this as well, but I choose to not do the fear/angry/negative version of it (and try to stay open minded). The problem is that it's incredibly easy to manipulate someone into thinking something, but once they do it's incredibly difficult to change their mind about that manipulation (it's human nature and certainly not helped by our society equating changing your mind as a weakness).

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's very well thought out and a much needed breath of fresh air from the people that already dislike KAT trying to stoke fears to get people on board with trading him for pennies on the dollar (luckily our FO is much smarter and able to block out those voices than in the past).

[Battletrigger]

There are people that live in the past or think that the problems are going to fix magicly.

I am not a Towns fan, it's well known but I think that he has become to clown and might be a big distraction. Without counting in the impact that his nonsense can impact the team and young players.

So you basically say that you are biased and then say something biased.

KAT has never been a distraction. He is awkward, says cringey stuff, and often tries too hard to please others... but he isn't a distraction. It's just you filtering everything through your dislike of him.

Everyday is a learning experience, so here is yours.

Without counting science knowledge, all opinions and beliefs are biased ( and if you life in the USA even science knowledge is biased these days), so it's obvious and redundant what you say.

You are welcome.

[Battletrigger]

(Continued). So what will the landscape for the 30 NBA teams look like?

Already the salary cap will rise so much that $180 mil will be the first year payroll that teams will try to stay under - and it will rise fast. Teams will be able to carry two max deal players, 4-5 vet min deals, 3 two-ways, and comfortably fit their team under that number. Some will make teams with one, some may try three or four (PHX might have jumped into that mix with the Beal trade), but if each team averages two, that is plenty of room for the TOP SIXTY players to get paid.

For the people that don’t think max and supermax deals are worth it, I invite you to create a competitive team without the top 60 players. You better hit those multiple superstar rookies perfectly in the draft, and they better learn immediately, before you need to pay them! This is why you shouldn’t sweat Towns trade value, if you’re concerned about his paycheck. Owners can (and almost “must”) afford star players to win games and sell tickets.

Now, it’s true that things will be tight in MIN next year with three, plus a well-paid McDaniels. But that pressure will ease, even if the Wolves did nothing. The cap will continue to rise, faster than the raises the CBA allows. By rule, any max deal is based on the salary cap the year it is signed for - the following years are not tied to salary cap increases. In other words, Towns will get 35% of the 2024-25 salary cap when his extension kicks in. He will get less than 35% of the 2025-26 cap. And to be clear, that’s not 35% of the payroll, which is a much higher number.

So I’m saying, don’t freak out by all the press talking about the big penalties for the superlux. Yes, they are severe, but those are isolated for just a couple teams. The rest of the NBA will be looking for places to get talent when they want to spend more money.

Great posts.

I think the issue with even having these discussions is that everyone filters things through their own bias and then project that as if it's reality, when really it's just a way to confirm their own bias'. I am certainly guilty of this as well, but I choose to not do the fear/angry/negative version of it (and try to stay open minded). The problem is that it's incredibly easy to manipulate someone into thinking something, but once they do it's incredibly difficult to change their mind about that manipulation (it's human nature and certainly not helped by our society equating changing your mind as a weakness).

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's very well thought out and a much needed breath of fresh air from the people that already dislike KAT trying to stoke fears to get people on board with trading him for pennies on the dollar (luckily our FO is much smarter and able to block out those voices than in the past).

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick

[SO_MONEY]

(Continued). So what will the landscape for the 30 NBA teams look like?

Already the salary cap will rise so much that $180 mil will be the first year payroll that teams will try to stay under - and it will rise fast. Teams will be able to carry two max deal players, 4-5 vet min deals, 3 two-ways, and comfortably fit their team under that number. Some will make teams with one, some may try three or four (PHX might have jumped into that mix with the Beal trade), but if each team averages two, that is plenty of room for the TOP SIXTY players to get paid.

For the people that don’t think max and supermax deals are worth it, I invite you to create a competitive team without the top 60 players. You better hit those multiple superstar rookies perfectly in the draft, and they better learn immediately, before you need to pay them! This is why you shouldn’t sweat Towns trade value, if you’re concerned about his paycheck. Owners can (and almost “must”) afford star players to win games and sell tickets.

Now, it’s true that things will be tight in MIN next year with three, plus a well-paid McDaniels. But that pressure will ease, even if the Wolves did nothing. The cap will continue to rise, faster than the raises the CBA allows. By rule, any max deal is based on the salary cap the year it is signed for - the following years are not tied to salary cap increases. In other words, Towns will get 35% of the 2024-25 salary cap when his extension kicks in. He will get less than 35% of the 2025-26 cap. And to be clear, that’s not 35% of the payroll, which is a much higher number.

So I’m saying, don’t freak out by all the press talking about the big penalties for the superlux. Yes, they are severe, but those are isolated for just a couple teams. The rest of the NBA will be looking for places to get talent when they want to spend more money.

Great posts.

I think the issue with even having these discussions is that everyone filters things through their own bias and then project that as if it's reality, when really it's just a way to confirm their own bias'. I am certainly guilty of this as well, but I choose to not do the fear/angry/negative version of it (and try to stay open minded). The problem is that it's incredibly easy to manipulate someone into thinking something, but once they do it's incredibly difficult to change their mind about that manipulation (it's human nature and certainly not helped by our society equating changing your mind as a weakness).

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's very well thought out and a much needed breath of fresh air from the people that already dislike KAT trying to stoke fears to get people on board with trading him for pennies on the dollar (luckily our FO is much smarter and able to block out those voices than in the past).

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick

A smart FO would trade KAT, which is why we probably won't.

[twolves31]

(Continued). So what will the landscape for the 30 NBA teams look like?

Already the salary cap will rise so much that $180 mil will be the first year payroll that teams will try to stay under - and it will rise fast. Teams will be able to carry two max deal players, 4-5 vet min deals, 3 two-ways, and comfortably fit their team under that number. Some will make teams with one, some may try three or four (PHX might have jumped into that mix with the Beal trade), but if each team averages two, that is plenty of room for the TOP SIXTY players to get paid.

For the people that don’t think max and supermax deals are worth it, I invite you to create a competitive team without the top 60 players. You better hit those multiple superstar rookies perfectly in the draft, and they better learn immediately, before you need to pay them! This is why you shouldn’t sweat Towns trade value, if you’re concerned about his paycheck. Owners can (and almost “must”) afford star players to win games and sell tickets.

Now, it’s true that things will be tight in MIN next year with three, plus a well-paid McDaniels. But that pressure will ease, even if the Wolves did nothing. The cap will continue to rise, faster than the raises the CBA allows. By rule, any max deal is based on the salary cap the year it is signed for - the following years are not tied to salary cap increases. In other words, Towns will get 35% of the 2024-25 salary cap when his extension kicks in. He will get less than 35% of the 2025-26 cap. And to be clear, that’s not 35% of the payroll, which is a much higher number.

So I’m saying, don’t freak out by all the press talking about the big penalties for the superlux. Yes, they are severe, but those are isolated for just a couple teams. The rest of the NBA will be looking for places to get talent when they want to spend more money.

Great posts.

I think the issue with even having these discussions is that everyone filters things through their own bias and then project that as if it's reality, when really it's just a way to confirm their own bias'. I am certainly guilty of this as well, but I choose to not do the fear/angry/negative version of it (and try to stay open minded). The problem is that it's incredibly easy to manipulate someone into thinking something, but once they do it's incredibly difficult to change their mind about that manipulation (it's human nature and certainly not helped by our society equating changing your mind as a weakness).

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's very well thought out and a much needed breath of fresh air from the people that already dislike KAT trying to stoke fears to get people on board with trading him for pennies on the dollar (luckily our FO is much smarter and able to block out those voices than in the past).

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick

It will take time to see who gets drafted with the first round picks. The only player worth a damn that we traded was Kessler, who 21 other teams passed on in the draft and 99% of Wolves fans either had no idea who he was or was willing to let him go. I do like Vandy as well.

[m2002brian]

What I am seeing:

Beal
Zion
Towns
Ayton
Jaylen Brown

They all are being mentioned in rumors for a reason, they are paid as stars, but they have underperformed in playoffs. New CBA just make this question even more urgent: are you really willing to pay all this money to these guys?

I think market correction was coming with or without the new CBA. The Gobert trade was disgusting at the time and just got worse (Walker Kessler was just listed as #31 on NBA trade value based on youth, contract, and future. Rudy didn’t make the list). But I’m not sure Durant gets that return with the new CBA either.

The guys listed definitely will have values depressed because you can only have a couple guys on maxes going forward without getting into tax completions. This is even more so for the super max guys like Towns/Rudy.

I think Zion probably has the most value on that list because of pure upside. Every second he’s played, he’s been dominant and led to winning. Last year when he got injured, he was probably to 3 in MVP voting. Someone will take that risk. It wouldn’t shock me if it was Portland for their pick.

This is a reason Towns won’t be traded this year. We simply won’t get real value, ie a future star in return. We’d get more than Beal but Beal returned nothing because of the no-trade. I think most likely we run it back, are a mid-seed in the West, getting bounced in the first or second round. And then trade Rudy and/or Towns next offseason for very little return. No owner, including ours, will want to pay that much in tax and roster limits for a team that isn’t a championship contender.

IF KAT were to be traded and IF it were to make us worse (potentially). It would make more sense to trade him this off-season. We hold our pick for next year. If you wait a year and all the “ifs” remain, you may just be helping the Jazz.

Personally, Scoot and Nurkic and Simmons is a great deal. But, that means Charlotte is Charlotte and passes on Scoot.

[Battletrigger]

Great posts.

I think the issue with even having these discussions is that everyone filters things through their own bias and then project that as if it's reality, when really it's just a way to confirm their own bias'. I am certainly guilty of this as well, but I choose to not do the fear/angry/negative version of it (and try to stay open minded). The problem is that it's incredibly easy to manipulate someone into thinking something, but once they do it's incredibly difficult to change their mind about that manipulation (it's human nature and certainly not helped by our society equating changing your mind as a weakness).

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's very well thought out and a much needed breath of fresh air from the people that already dislike KAT trying to stoke fears to get people on board with trading him for pennies on the dollar (luckily our FO is much smarter and able to block out those voices than in the past).

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick

It will take time to see who gets drafted with the first round picks. The only player worth a damn that we traded was Kessler, who 21 other teams passed on in the draft and 99% of Wolves fans either had no idea who he was or was willing to let him go. I do like Vandy as well.

Well, 21 tems passed on Kessler, but Jokic was a 41 draft pick, Butler the 30 and Giannis the 15.

[urinesane]

Great posts.

I think the issue with even having these discussions is that everyone filters things through their own bias and then project that as if it's reality, when really it's just a way to confirm their own bias'. I am certainly guilty of this as well, but I choose to not do the fear/angry/negative version of it (and try to stay open minded). The problem is that it's incredibly easy to manipulate someone into thinking something, but once they do it's incredibly difficult to change their mind about that manipulation (it's human nature and certainly not helped by our society equating changing your mind as a weakness).

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's very well thought out and a much needed breath of fresh air from the people that already dislike KAT trying to stoke fears to get people on board with trading him for pennies on the dollar (luckily our FO is much smarter and able to block out those voices than in the past).

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley
• Patrick Beverley
• Leandro Bolmaro
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft)
• Jarred Vanderbilt
• 2023 first-round pick
• 2025 first-round pick
• 2026 pick swap
• 2027 first-round pick
• 2029 first-round pick

A smart FO would trade KAT, which is why we probably won't.

Why do you think you're right? Our POBO built a championship team that looks like it's not a flash in the pan... what is your experience?

You are looking through a keyhole and are pretending that you are seeing the whole building.

[TimberKat]

With the realities of the new CBA and how it effects the future of our Wolves, I think many of us who post trades on this forum have mostly ignored the unbelievable financial crisis we are in. Specifically, the recent Kat proposed trades IMHO have greatly ignored the liability that his contract has become. With the Beal trade, we now have an honest glimpse of what a very skilled but often injured player, who also has a 50 plus million-dollar contract is worth in today’s NBA. It should be ominous to all of us, that Kat’s worth possibly is only a fraction of what we all think it should be. So sadly, let me be one of the first to say, we aren’t going to get a top 10 pick for Kat. We’re also not going to get a starting point guard for him either. And it’s not because of his talent, it’s the contract.

LewDog, I see two holes in this argument. One is the No Trade clause in Beal's contract that controlled where he could be traded. This prevents a bidding war among teams to elevate his value, especially if the other team's that he ok'd are not in a position to put together a viable trade package with the players on their roster. This year's draft is topheavy with guards and most of them need the ball in their hands to develop. Beal's presence would hinder this process and it's apparent the Wizards are turning towards rebuilding. Beal is about to be on the wrong side of 30 and he's played about 63% of his team's games the last 4 years.

Two, post players typically have a greater longevity that SG's that are 6'4" or shorter. While Towns and Beal are two years apart in age, KAT is more likely to equate to the value of his contract than Beal. After 11 years in the league, you can argue that Beal is nearing his decline, while KAT is just entering his prime. KAT's injuries may have saved him a bit of wear and tear, and I would argue that prior to the wrist injury, Towns was pretty durable, so I wouldn't consider him injury prone, unlucky maybe, but not injury prone.

You'd have to play him a bit this upcoming season to regain his value, but I HIGHLY doubt his trade package is any similar to what the Wizards got for Beal.

In addition, I will add that Suns is a small market team and they don't mind adding Beal because they see him as that 3rd piece to put them over the top and doesn't worry about the new CBA with 4 max contracts. Now imagine we had a team with Ant, JMac, Gobert, Conley, Naz that made the first round of the playoffs. We don't mind adding a supermax player of Towns who is younger and better than Beal in hope of putting us over the top. We are like the Suns in the buyer market, not sellers/rebuilder like Wizards. If you think keeping Towns is bad than Suns are in worst situation and Wizards won the trade. Also, Booker and Beal play the same position like Gobert/Towns.

[TimberKat]

What I am seeing:

Beal
Zion
Towns
Ayton
Jaylen Brown

They all are being mentioned in rumors for a reason, they are paid as stars, but they have underperformed in playoffs. New CBA just make this question even more urgent: are you really willing to pay all this money to these guys?

Towns and Brown don't belong with this group. The new CBA also come with the new TV deal and more money to paid the lower end stars

[TimberKat]

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley - just salary
• Patrick Beverley - just salary
• Leandro Bolmaro - just salary
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft) - may get lucky, will see, mostly likely Mark Eaton
• Jarred Vanderbilt - just salary
• 2023 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2025 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2026 pick swap - likely no swap, meaningless if we stay the course
• 2027 first-round pick - could be a high pick
• 2029 first-round pick - top 5 protected

So, doesn't look as bad as the initial post. Maybe one 1st too many for the price of not including JMac

[SO_MONEY]

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley - just salary
• Patrick Beverley - just salary
• Leandro Bolmaro - just salary
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft) - may get lucky, will see, mostly likely Mark Eaton
• Jarred Vanderbilt - just salary
• 2023 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2025 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2026 pick swap - likely no swap, meaningless if we stay the course
• 2027 first-round pick - could be a high pick
• 2029 first-round pick - top 5 protected

So, doesn't look as bad as the initial post. Maybe one 1st too many for the price of not including JMac

No, it looks just as bad as it is, you are trying to rationalize it. The truth is Kessler alone at his salary is a loss for the deal (something I didn't predict), Beasley and Vanderbilt are not "just salary" they were worth a 1st and that is before the picks we gave up, which I might add could also be used in trade. Moreover, you are vastly overestimating the likelihood this team is anything more than close to .500.

[TimberKat]

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley - just salary
• Patrick Beverley - just salary
• Leandro Bolmaro - just salary
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft) - may get lucky, will see, mostly likely Mark Eaton
• Jarred Vanderbilt - just salary
• 2023 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2025 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2026 pick swap - likely no swap, meaningless if we stay the course
• 2027 first-round pick - could be a high pick
• 2029 first-round pick - top 5 protected

So, doesn't look as bad as the initial post. Maybe one 1st too many for the price of not including JMac

No, it looks just as bad as it is, you are trying to rationalize it. The truth is Kessler alone at his salary is a loss for the deal, Beasley and Vanderbilt are not "just salary" and that is before the picks, which I might add could also be used in trade. Moreover, you are vastly overestimating the likelihood this team is anything more than close to .500.

will see, the paid scale of NBA players is not linear but exponential. 5 pt, 5 rebound per game is a 5 mil player, 10pt, 10 rebound is a 20 mil player, 14pt 12 rebound is 30+ mil. It's a fact Kessler is not as good as Gobert right now.

You should expect UTA land a starter or even a all star at some point with those picks. Otherwise, how is that an even trade?

[SO_MONEY]

The smartest:

Timberwolves receive:

• Rudy Gobert

Jazz receive:

• Malik Beasley - just salary
• Patrick Beverley - just salary
• Leandro Bolmaro - just salary
• Walker Kessler (No. 22 pick in 2022 Draft) - may get lucky, will see, mostly likely Mark Eaton
• Jarred Vanderbilt - just salary
• 2023 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2025 first-round pick - 5% chance will be NBA starter
• 2026 pick swap - likely no swap, meaningless if we stay the course
• 2027 first-round pick - could be a high pick
• 2029 first-round pick - top 5 protected

So, doesn't look as bad as the initial post. Maybe one 1st too many for the price of not including JMac

No, it looks just as bad as it is, you are trying to rationalize it. The truth is Kessler alone at his salary is a loss for the deal, Beasley and Vanderbilt are not "just salary" and that is before the picks, which I might add could also be used in trade. Moreover, you are vastly overestimating the likelihood this team is anything more than close to .500.

will see, the paid scale of NBA players is not linear but exponential. 5 pt, 5 rebound per game is a 5 mil player, 10pt, 10 rebound is a 20 mil player, 14pt 12 rebound is 30+ mil. It's a fact Kessler is not as good as Gobert right now.

You should expect UTA land a starter or even a all star at some point with those picks. Otherwise, how is that an even trade?

I honestly thought Rudy was cashed before the trade, I saw nothing to dispell that. If they get 1 slightly above average player, (and frankly it is a rolling scale as time passes) they win. That is how little they need to get to win.

Maybe the last year only provides confirmation bias? IDK, but Rudy is just a name at this point if his production holds.

[Norseman79]

Ok...let's get crazy and I am bored...

Pelicans out: McCollum, Zion, Murphy, Daniels, 14, 2025&27 1rst
In: Simons, Sharpe, Moore jr, Bertans, #3 & 10

Mavericks out: Bertans, Hardway,10
In: McCollum, Nurkic, Prince

Blazers out: Simons, Sharpe, Nurkic, Little, 3, 23
In Zion, Kat

Timberwolves out: Kat, Moore Jr., Prince
In: Hardway, Little, Murphy, Daniels, 14, 23, 2025&27 1rsts

Wolves go
PG Conley, Daniels,
SG Edwards, NAW
SF McDaniels, Murphy
PF ????, Anderson
C. Gobert, Naz

Pick 14 and 23 on bpa and still able to flip Hardaway and Little if needed and land 25 & 27 firsts.

At 14, I look at Noah Clowney or GG Jackson to develop behind Anderson for a year. At 23, I look at Nick Smith Jr, Rayan Rupert as combo guard to develop.

Ok, rip away