DCZards wrote:badinage wrote:I’m curious: Woj said that 6 2nd round picks is equivalent to two FRP. How? Is that possible? Is that the new value? Can someone please explain?
I’m guessing the thinking is that with 6 second round picks—and the right people making those picks—you could possibly come away with two first round quality talents....
Here's the thing. It's better to stop thinking about "first round talent" & "second round talent." Conceptually, those phrases are so abstract as to be totally misleading.
15 guys taken in the first 30 of the 2018 draft, are either out of the league or just barely hanging on by the skin of their teeth -- 1/2 of the first round, including 8 of the first 16.
OTOH, 5 of the next 8 picks (the first 8 of R2) are thriving in the league. They are all better than the 1/2 of R1 that washed out, obviously. That's true by definition. A couple of them are extremely successful! Mitchell Robinson is a starter; Jalen Brunson is a star!
But, it doesn't end there: 7 of the guys taken from 41-50 are also still in the league & playing substantial minutes -- a few of them are quite successful! Those guys are also better than the 15 R1 failures. In fact, most of them are better than several of the successful R1 picks!
So, that's 12 out of 20 -- a better hit rate than R1 that year!
The guy taken at 54, Shake Milton, has averaged over 20 minutes a game in his career so far.
What Woj means is likely something different. Something about the trade value of picks -- i.e. what would I have to give in R2 picks to get a R1 pick in exchange. Somehow averaged out across the pick numbers. Or maybe he means that there are 6 R1 guys in the league for every 2 R2 guys in the league.
But of course, that's an extremely broad measure. I.e. I doubt there are 3 times as many guys taken at 27-30 than taken at 31-34.
Didn't think so....
