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Your best draft day scenario (no trades)

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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#61 » by Bigmagicfan82 » Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:36 am

Taylor Hendricks at 6 Grady Dick 11
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#62 » by jonbob17 » Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:37 am

Last and Final

6 Black (or Cason)
11 Hendricks, Cason, Lively
36 Podziemski, Julian Phillips, Amari Bailey, or Seth Lundy. - no cash considerations


FA sign some one who can shoot that can play the 3. Troy Brown or Joe Ingles or Bates Diop
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#63 » by eyriq » Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:22 am

There are really no scenarios that will piss me off outside of drafting forward + center in the lottery. I will hate that scenario. I don't see any supporting logic and it would feel like punting on this draft.

For example No 6. Walker or Hendricks No 11. Lively will not please me
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#64 » by fendilim » Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:28 am

6- ausar/black/whitmore
11- bufkin/gradey/bilal
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#65 » by SOUL » Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:31 am

eyriq wrote:There are really no scenarios that will piss me off outside of drafting forward + center in the lottery. I will hate that scenario. I don't see any supporting logic and it would feel like punting on this draft.

For example No 6. Walker or Hendricks No 11. Lively will not please me


I want BPA but I wouldn't hate it if they thought it was BPA. If they didn't, then I would be annoyed (in any scenario).

But for some reason some of you guys are way too fine with Bol, Moe and Chuma taking a lot of minutes! And god forbid we have any injuries to Franz or Paolo or Dell. Although forwards can be addressed in free agency as well.

I just think NBA lineups are too flexible to care about log jams unless their skills overlap completely.
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#66 » by eyriq » Wed Jun 21, 2023 8:27 am

SOUL wrote:
eyriq wrote:There are really no scenarios that will piss me off outside of drafting forward + center in the lottery. I will hate that scenario. I don't see any supporting logic and it would feel like punting on this draft.

For example No 6. Walker or Hendricks No 11. Lively will not please me


I want BPA but I wouldn't hate it if they thought it was BPA. If they didn't, then I would be annoyed (in any scenario).

But for some reason some of you guys are way too fine with Bol, Moe and Chuma taking a lot of minutes! And god forbid we have any injuries to Franz or Paolo or Dell. Although forwards can be addressed in free agency as well.

I just think NBA lineups are too flexible to care about log jams unless their skills overlap completely.
I was typing "fair point" but I just don't get it. Jarace or Hendricks could play a combo big role and Lively could play a power center role. Internal options are Bol, Moritz and Goga. Maybe Jarace or Hendricks could play a combo forward role? Internal options are JI, Chuma, and Bol. Where's the path to stardom for these guys buried behind Franz, Paolo, and WCJ?
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#67 » by axl_c_cool » Wed Jun 21, 2023 8:44 am

6. Amen/Black/Hendrick
7. Bilal/Gradey/Hawkins

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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#68 » by SOUL » Wed Jun 21, 2023 9:39 am

eyriq wrote:I just think NBA lineups are too flexible to care about log jams unless their skills overlap completely. I was typing "fair point" but I just don't get it. Jarace or Hendricks could play a combo big role and Lively could play a power center role. Internal options are Bol, Moritz and Goga. Maybe Jarace or Hendricks could play a combo forward role? Internal options are JI, Chuma, and Bol. Where's the path to stardom for these guys buried behind Franz, Paolo, and WCJ?


I guess what I question more is the "path for stardom" I've seen a few people allude to. Are we assuming Paolo and Franz aren't #1 or #2? Are we banking on a 6th pick and an 11th pick in a mystery draft to reach those levels and not WCJ or Suggs or Fultz or any free agent or trade target? I guess I'm just seeing these teams that have won recently (Nuggets, Bucks, etc) and I'm seeing Giannis-Middleton-Jrue and Jokic-Murray and thinking that us as a fanbase are trying to get 5 stars at every position and I just think that's an insanely hard thing to do, especially when roles and hierarchy are established beyond teams in total tear-down mode (us two years ago).

If you can find your Brook Lopez, Portis, your AG, your KCP, your MPJ, etc, that's a hit - I mean that in a way that if they don't become stars.

BPA to me just means finding the star in their role, whether they become a franchise guy or just someone insanely helpful. not just rolling a dice. BPA comes with a huge asterisks in a lot of cases cause it's not like it means finding the next Giannis or Jokic. That's the exception.

So if they say, for example, "Our BPA was Cason Wallace because his path to playing time will come and he will give a two-way impact like Jrue" versus "we swung for the fences on Bilal with no real plan as far as integration or playing time, even if his ceiling is theoretically higher", then I have an issue with that. I picked two random players and two random positions so it's not a target thing.

I just don't think the "we don't have a star at X position, so let's force a draft there even if we like another guy more" is that smart in lottery unless it checks all the boxes, then sure.
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#69 » by eyriq » Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:02 am

SOUL wrote:
eyriq wrote:I just think NBA lineups are too flexible to care about log jams unless their skills overlap completely. I was typing "fair point" but I just don't get it. Jarace or Hendricks could play a combo big role and Lively could play a power center role. Internal options are Bol, Moritz and Goga. Maybe Jarace or Hendricks could play a combo forward role? Internal options are JI, Chuma, and Bol. Where's the path to stardom for these guys buried behind Franz, Paolo, and WCJ?


I guess what I question more is the "path for stardom" I've seen a few people allude to. Are we assuming Paolo and Franz aren't #1 or #2? Are we banking on a 6th pick and an 11th pick in a mystery draft to reach those levels and not WCJ or Suggs or Fultz or any free agent or trade target? I guess I'm just seeing these teams that have won recently (Nuggets, Bucks, etc) and I'm seeing Giannis-Middleton-Jrue and Jokic-Murray and thinking that us as a fanbase are trying to get 5 stars at every position and I just think that's an insanely hard thing to do, especially when roles and hierarchy are established beyond teams in total tear-down mode (us two years ago).

If you can find your Brook Lopez, Portis, your AG, your KCP, your MPJ, etc, that's a hit - I mean that in a way that if they don't become stars.

BPA to me just means finding the star in their role, whether they become a franchise guy or just someone insanely helpful. not just rolling a dice. BPA comes with a huge asterisks in a lot of cases cause it's not like it means finding the next Giannis or Jokic. That's the exception.

So if they say, for example, "Our BPA was Cason Wallace because his path to playing time will come and he will give a two-way impact like Jrue" versus "we swung for the fences on Bilal with no real plan as far as integration or playing time, even if his ceiling is theoretically higher", then I have an issue with that. I picked two random players and two random positions so it's not a target thing.

I just don't think the "we don't have a star at X position, so let's force a draft there even if we like another guy more" is that smart in lottery unless it checks all the boxes, then sure.


Ok, I like that angle. You point out three positions that most everyone agrees on:
1. In the lottery take BPA
2. Paolo and Franz are both rising stars (Ringer Trade Value has them both top 30, so it is in the zeitgeist and not a homer take)
3. The current meta is that you build a contender around 2 stars (we'll see how the Phoenix zag plays out)

So in a world were we take two front court players in the lottery we do so because they are BPA, not because there is a clear development path.

I'd add a fourth position which is a caveat to taking BPA:
4. Group players into tiers and take the best fit within that tier

So for me to really wrap my head around taking two front court players in the lottery I'd also have to assume that not only were they BPA but that all the backcourt options in their tier were off the board.

Could happen.
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#70 » by SOUL » Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:16 am

eyriq wrote:Ok, I like that angle. You point out three positions that most everyone agrees on:
1. In the lottery take BPA
2. Paolo and Franz are both rising stars (Ringer Trade Value has them both top 30, so it is in the zeitgeist and not a homer take)
3. The current meta is that you build a contender around 2 stars (we'll see how the Phoenix zag plays out)

So in a world were we take two front court players in the lottery we do so because they are BPA, not because there is a clear development path.

I'd add a fourth position which is a caveat to taking BPA:
4. Group players into tiers and take the best fit within that tier

So for me to really wrap my head around taking two front court players in the lottery I'd also have to assume that not only were they BPA but that all the backcourt options in their tier were off the board.

Could happen.


Yeah, there's a lot of nuance involved, and on a cursory look could seem hypocritical because I've argued against forcing PG because I think there is no path to playing time there, HOWEVER, if there was a can't miss talent from the FO's perspective, and there was a pathway and plan created, take the shot. I would have no problem if they took a swing on Black if they think he could be Giddey with better defense.

However, within BPA should take into account minutes and percentage to reach that BPA. A lot of players were actually the BPA and they figure it out on the next team because the team they were on had no plan beyond "Hey, we like you a lot, but you don't fit our timeline at this exact second". If they had that mindset going in, just go for need then.

I think we're in a unique position to ignore need over BPA in terms of taking swings, but that implies that "need" is being addressed via other options, i.e. trades and FA. If they aren't going to do that, then need suddenly integrates more with the BPA and you can sort of weigh the pros/cons of certain guys more in regards to that.

But you hit it on the head. If we hit on SF/PF they play like, say, mid career-Iguodala and Phoenix level Mikal Bridges, they would both get playing time off the bench with and without Paolo and Wagner... versus.. picking an SG that turns out to be Tyler Harvey because we were pigeon-holed on shooting and wanting it so bad that we ignored a lot of other things in pursuit of it. And then when those other hypothetical forwards are able to shine, even in 18-25 minute roles to begin, suddenly coaches would be like "Hey, let's get creative" and other lineups evolve and suddenly that traditional lineup people always love becomes a unique one that other teams have to deal with.

Again though, there is discretion. If we drafted Black and then thought the next BPA was another tall guard with good defense and not great shooting, then start to integrate that need more OR move down or trade for an asset in a good vet or a future pick or something.
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#71 » by zaymon » Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:16 am

Weltman in his recent interview said we need more veterans and we need to think about path to minutes for players we want to draft.
My money is on Banchero going number 1 !
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#72 » by Petre1978 » Wed Jun 21, 2023 10:24 am

SOUL wrote:
eyriq wrote:There are really no scenarios that will piss me off outside of drafting forward + center in the lottery. I will hate that scenario. I don't see any supporting logic and it would feel like punting on this draft.

For example No 6. Walker or Hendricks No 11. Lively will not please me


I want BPA but I wouldn't hate it if they thought it was BPA. If they didn't, then I would be annoyed (in any scenario).

But for some reason some of you guys are way too fine with Bol, Moe and Chuma taking a lot of minutes! And god forbid we have any injuries to Franz or Paolo or Dell. Although forwards can be addressed in free agency as well.

I just think NBA lineups are too flexible to care about log jams unless their skills overlap completely.

If Walker or Hendricks are BPA at 6 you have to draft them.
You cannot count on Isaac and Okeke.
There are a lot of minutes behind Wagner and Banchero.
Also in case of injuries.

In certain lineups Walker or Hendricks can also play with Wagner, Banchero and Carter Jr.
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#73 » by drsd » Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:08 am

Petre1978 wrote:You cannot count on Isaac and Okeke.
There are a lot of minutes behind Wagner and Banchero.


The media narrative that Orlando does not need a PF is rubbish. Isaac cannot be expected to play and Okeke is not a NBA-capable talent.

M-Wagner will get a lot of PF minutes next year, if resigned and the Magic does not draft a rookie forward. THere are loads of minutes to be found!

..
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#74 » by fendilim » Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:07 pm

drsd wrote:
Petre1978 wrote:You cannot count on Isaac and Okeke.
There are a lot of minutes behind Wagner and Banchero.


The media narrative that Orlando does not need a PF is rubbish. Isaac cannot be expected to play and Okeke is not a NBA-capable talent.

M-Wagner will get a lot of PF minutes next year, if resigned and the Magic does not draft a rookie forward. THere are loads of minutes to be found!

..

Enough backup minutes to draft them 6th?
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#75 » by Black and Blue » Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:37 pm

6 - Amen, Ausar, Whitmore
11 - Bufkin, Dick, Bilal

Would love a trade up for Scoot, but barring that I really hope the magic don’t overthink pick 6. I keep envisioning Hendricks being the pick as he ticks so many boxes, but I would prefer something splashier.
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#76 » by jonbob17 » Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:51 pm

zaymon wrote:Weltman in his recent interview said we need more veterans and we need to think about path to minutes for players we want to draft.


I suppose this could be interpreted as drafting for fit, assuming they know what veterans they are adding, and at which position. Trading up(consolidating picks). OR they are targeting players in draft with high floors and should be able to earn minutes immediately.

I agree with him, you don't want to draft guys who can't earn minutes, due to either where they are as a player or positional depth. Obviously the FO has a better idea of their plan than we do. Maybe they are all-in on Fultz, and are going to give him 32 minutes a game irregardless of what the fans think
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#77 » by YosemiteSam » Wed Jun 21, 2023 1:00 pm

#6 Whitmore
#11 Dick
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#78 » by Petre1978 » Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:53 pm

fendilim wrote:
drsd wrote:
Petre1978 wrote:You cannot count on Isaac and Okeke.
There are a lot of minutes behind Wagner and Banchero.


The media narrative that Orlando does not need a PF is rubbish. Isaac cannot be expected to play and Okeke is not a NBA-capable talent.

M-Wagner will get a lot of PF minutes next year, if resigned and the Magic does not draft a rookie forward. THere are loads of minutes to be found!

..

Enough backup minutes to draft them 6th?

Sure
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#79 » by AdamTheGreek » Wed Jun 21, 2023 4:01 pm

6. Whitmore then Hendricks
11. Hendricks then Hawkins then Coulibaly then Lively
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Re: Your best draft day scenario (no trades) 

Post#80 » by Skin » Wed Jun 21, 2023 7:49 pm

AdamTheGreek wrote:6. Whitmore then Hendricks
11. Hendricks then Hawkins then Coulibaly then Lively

How I feel as well. Hendricks at 11 is looking unlikely. But I would be fine with Whitmore and Hawkins. Some people want Grady and Hawkins so why not Whitmore and Hawkins.... better player and value at 6.

Whitmore and Hawkins.
Hendricks and Hawkins.
Whitmore and Lively.

Favorite combinations.

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