https://theathletic.com/4622872/2023/06/20/washington-wizards-draft-preview/?source=emp_shared_article
Vecenie: Bufkin is a player who seems to have been steadily rising up the board throughout the process for NBA teams, but he’s been very high for me since about early March. I’ve had him in the lottery since then. I love how well-rounded his game is and how many of his attributes figure to translate well to the NBA. He again ticks a lot of boxes for the Thunder methodology because of his positional size and well-rounded game for his age.
I buy him as a shooter, and I really buy his feel for the game on offense. His passing is improving as he continues to gain experience playing on the ball consistently. He knows how to play direct basketball, with quick choices and decisive drives. He’s an elite finisher with great touch for a guard when he gets to the rim. There isn’t a ton of fluff there. He has the size to not be hunted if the strength comes along defensively. He’s also a really good defender both on and off the ball. Plus, his ability to play both on and off the ball will allow him to play with stars at a high level. Bufkin has starter upside long-term. And if he can develop a bit more game off the bounce to separate from his man, there is even a bit more upside beyond that in the highest-end potential outcomes.
The question is largely around his ability to actually create at a high level. You would maybe like to see a bit of fluff in terms of his ability to dance and create a shot, but I think his ability to play a different cadence and his hip flexibility give him some upside to develop those gifts once he gets stronger and can hold his ground on the ball against aggressive defenders a bit. With his long arms and stronger shoulders, he has the kind of frame that should be able to add some weight and improve some of the strength-based issues that cause him problems now. But the frame and potential lack of ability to separate is why he’s more of a lottery pick for me as opposed to a top-seven guy.
On Black
Vecenie: It’s actually kind of easy to understand, I think. Dawkins comes from Oklahoma City, and as I mentioned, the type for Oklahoma City was elite positional size mixed with elite feel for the game. Black is, for my money, the highest IQ player in this draft class. He’s an incredible playmaker who makes faster decisions than anyone in the class. He sees the game steps and levels ahead of everyone else. Genuinely, he ticks every box for what Oklahoma City would typically look for. That makes me — and others across the league — think Dawkins will be a fan.
So why did this guy only average 13 points and four assists in college? It had to do with his situation at Arkansas. The Razorbacks were maybe the worst-spaced team with multiple real draft prospects that I’ve watched play college basketball in a long time. The team shot 31 percent from 3 and took 3s on a lower percentage of their possessions than all but 12 teams in the country. Teams just completely collapsed the paint all game every game, which reduced Black’s ability to get into the lane. It’s not an accident that Black saw his best success early in the season, before Trevon Brazile, the team’s 6-foot-10 stretch-five man, tore his ACL. In the Maui Invitational’s three games, Black averaged 22.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists while shooting 55 percent from the field. On top of that, Black was a terrific defensive player this past season.
The ultimate concern with Black is that the jumper is pretty rough. The mechanics are messy, and he doesn’t seem wildly confident when it comes to taking them. He’s going to need to take a real leap as a shooter to reach his potential. But I also think he’s an underrated athlete and should be able to consistently penetrate the first line of defense in the NBA. I have him ranked No. 8 on my board, and think he’d be a wonderful pick.
Hendricks strikes me more as an awesome 3-and-D role player long-term because he struggles to create off of the bounce, so I don’t know that I love him in this situation. But he’s in this tier of players, at least. Whitmore is my favorite of this group of players because of his elite athleticism and potential as a shot creator. He’s the No. 3 player on my board, but it’s very close between him and some of the others. He’s a sick athlete. Finally, Wallace also strikes me as more of a role player given that he’s defense-first more than anything. He’s a solid shot creator and midrange shot-maker, but I worry about his shake.
