Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[NatP4]

I'm fine with the Beal trade. I would've gone about it differently. Could it have ended up worse? of course, but how much worse? What was the risk of hanging onto Beal and playing hardball? He doesn't report to camp and doesn't play, we tank anyways and proceed with the rebuild. We were going to trade Porzingis either way and let Kuzma walk, and have cap space in 2024 to take on contracts with assets attached.

Is is that much of a stretch to project that Beal would eventually get fed up of wasting his age 30 season and expand his list of acceptable destinations? Do I really know what I am talking about? no, but i'm a fan and this is a message board. Just my thoughts.

No one on this board agrees with you on Porzingis, and you know it. He's worth more than the 30th overall pick. I will try to reserve judgement until the full details of the trade come out, there is NO way Boston isn't sending us a pick. That would be flat out terrible. But let's not argue about Porzingis again.

but again, I am happy overall, we are finally rebuilding. This is the most optimistic I have ever been about the direction of the franchise.

[doclinkin]

From the Porzingis trade thread but it fits better here.

I don't think people are looking at the big picture here.

Just back from vacation and reading up on the massive changes. Seems to me people aren't addressing what is really going on. It may look like we are getting fleeced in the short term, but in the long term it sets us up to leverage some ridiculously one-sided trades in our favor. The re-build isn't about any plan to simply tank for a single lotto pick. It is about about using cap space under the new CBA as a weapon to strongarm some lopsided trades.

It looks to me like Winger etc looked at the upcoming tax apron guillotine and realized that the biggest advantage a team will have over the next few years will be to have enough space under the cap to absorb ugly contracts, and coerce their trade partners into giving away increasingly valuable picks. Oklahoma style. The re-tool will be with raft after raft of picks, to sift sort and select the ones that stick. But whether or not we get any value in trades this off season, what they have been accumulating is expiring contracts. This is a total cap purge. We may take little in return for the Beal trade, but we judo flip from a team that has no leverage in one-sided trades to one that can abuse our trade partners once the draconian Second Apron provisions start kicking in.

Teams that were built under the old system will be desperate to dump high cost contracts. Whereas teams under the cap will be getting a flood of tax penalty cash to fund all the peripheral moves that don't count under the cap. Upgrading facilities, hiring coaching staff, etc.

On all the 2nd round picks, I also think it likely they may be looking at the NIL/trade portal era and realizing you will get solid value with 2nd round picks from players who are not one-and-done prospects, but are good enough for the school boosters to pay them to stick around. In that respect the developing talent types will serve their apprenticeship and gain valuable minutes where they should be: in school, learning, instead of taking up space on your roster and clogging your cap.

They are banking on their talent evaluation department, but stacking the deck in their favor.

Mostly, this is what we have been looking for. A total rebuild. An actual master plan. Bulldozing the past ways with a total roster re-set. A bold vision that does not look at immediate return, but has a blueprint for continued success with incoming talent building on top of developing talent. Year after year.

I dunno. We were tired of the same old thing. This definitely is not that. I like it. Personally. Yeah this year will look ugly. Future years look like they could be remarkable in a damn good way. Be patient. They aren't done yet. The demolition is going to get even more hectic, More is coming. This looks like fun to me.

AND THE BEST PART:

No longer will you ever have to hear PIF ramble about how we should have traded this pick for that bunch, and so on and so on and so on. He will be practically wordless on this front. I count this as a win for everybody.

[WallToWall]

I would really consider keeping CP3 and Gallinari till the trade deadline, if they are not opposed to it. I think they could be good mentors for the team, and individual players. For a young team, this is quite important. Establishing a culture of hard work, reliance on each other (teamwork), reliability, and accountability is something that will be very much needed.

[Tyrone Messby]

What if we draft Bronny with one of our second rounders next year and get LeBron? Barstool just posted something to that effect. LeBron living in MJs shadow again.

[doclinkin]

The other thing I like about the PHX deal is: those later 2nd round picks look like they could be a good investment in future years. PHX is banking on Beal and KD staying healthy, as each has had injuries over the past couple years and is far more likely to decline than sustain a peak. The Suns also will have to somehow play all 3 together without a true PG to move the ball around. In an era where defense has strengthened and both Beal and Booker have had some adjustment periods with the new rule emphasis. They will field a team that is notably small, in an era of impending Tall Ball.

PG Cam Payne 6'1"
2G Beal 6'3"
SF Booker 6'5"
PF Durant, the slim reaper, with a resurrected achilles tendon
C DeAndre "I can't pass myself the ball..." Ayton,


All while carrying a massive tax load. At some point there is a strong likelihood the whole thing crashes and the parts have to be shipped at a discount.

I have often advocated that the Wiz trade for future picks from teams that go all in trying to win now, because when they fall they tend to fall hard. Those 2nd rounders may count as late 1sts in future years. IF you trust your talent evaluation team, then you bet they can find value with these early 2nds.

Yes you want lotto picks if you can get them. And that is where the sweet part comes into play. The Wiz front office looks at the structure of PHX and decides it is going to fall apart. So they invest heavily in the downfall of the Suns figuring: they are top heavy with stars, have potential diva and chemistry issues, and have nothing coming up behind the starters. If they fall, they fall hard and fast. The Wiz get to pick up the pieces.

Though yeah, we ourselves will likely suck for a bit as well. I suppose it depends how far in the future those pick swaps are likely to be. EDIT -- eh, less good. 2024 and 2026. We will surely be worse than them next year.

[AFM]

Yeah. I hate to wish on someone else’s downfall, but it will be very amusing to see that team crash and burn if it does….

[closg00]

Starting lineup so-far:
PG: Jones
SG: Poole
SF: Galo
PF: Deni
C: Gafford

[doclinkin]

Ok yeah, that's more like it:

Read on Twitter

[TGW]

Doc...how does this Poole trade fit into the "master plan?" That is a lot of money for a 2030 protected pick and a second in 2027.

Is the hope that Poole at some point, gains trade value? If so, that's not a good gamble.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Ok yeah, that's more like it:

Read on Twitter

4 first round pick swaps, that's double what was previously reported. Once PHX small window closes, those will be very, very interesting. Matched with the Poole deal, we got:

-Jordan Poole
-Landry Shamet
-Ryan Hollins
-7 2nd round picks
-4 pick swaps
-Protected first rounder

Ya'll are crazy that you don't think that's a good return on a dude that had a no trade clause. In with the "Winger Proving Doubters Wrong" thread.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Ok yeah, that's more like it:

Read on Twitter

Double post.

[TGW]

Yea, except Jordan Poole sucks and is owed $120 mil. They were better off cutting Chris Paul.

[doclinkin]

Doc...how does this Poole trade fit into the "master plan?" That is a lot of money for a 2030 protected pick and a second in 2027.

Is the hope that Poole at some point, gains trade value? If so, that's not a good gamble.

What are the protections on the pick? Because this year's 6th graders are crazy good. I bet. I'm sure. "I don't have the resawces to scout prep school ball". I'm gonna go get some curly fries.

[Rafael122]

Doc...how does this Poole trade fit into the "master plan?" That is a lot of money for a 2030 protected pick and a second in 2027.

Is the hope that Poole at some point, gains trade value? If so, that's not a good gamble.

They have a projected cap space of $75 million not factoring in the 2024 FRP or a Deni extension heading into the 2024 offseason. If you're an optimist and you say Deni gets a $20 mil per extension, plus the pick, you're probably around $50 million in room. Just ample flexibility, this changes nothing. Plus teams have to spend 90% of the cap so you have to spend regardless.

[truwizfan4evr]

Washington and Phoenix have finalized the Bradley Beal trade, landing the Wizards six second-round draft picks and four first-round pick swaps, sources tell ESPN. Suns are sending seconds in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2030. Pick swaps in 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030.

[80sballboy]

Doc...how does this Poole trade fit into the "master plan?" That is a lot of money for a 2030 protected pick and a second in 2027.

Is the hope that Poole at some point, gains trade value? If so, that's not a good gamble.

What are the protections on the pick? Because this year's 6th graders are crazy good. I bet. I'm sure. "I don't have the resawces to scout prep school ball". I'm gonna go get some curly fries.

My man Kenny B. RIP.

[80sballboy]

Ringer article on pick swaps
https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.

The Celtics last decade provided a proof of concept for the ideal outcome of a swap, from the receiving team’s perspective. The 2016-17 Nets had the worst record in the league and won the lottery, while the Celtics had the best record in the Eastern Conference and were slated for the no. 27 pick in the draft. But thanks to swap rights they received in the Paul Pierce–Kevin Garnett trade four years earlier, the Celtics were able to take that no. 1 pick for themselves while the Nets slid to 27th. After a predraft trade for the no. 3 pick—which belonged to the 76ers thanks to a pick swap with the Kings—Boston added Jayson Tatum to a team that had just reached the conference finals.

[queridiculo]

Ringer article on pick swaps
https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nba/2022/10/12/23399637/nba-draft-swap-picks

But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.

The results suggest that pick swaps aren’t anywhere near as important as they might seem. Historically, a first-round pick swap has been only about as valuable as the no. 36 overall pick. That’s worth repeating: The average first-round pick swap returns second-round value! And several team executives agree that—within the league itself, and especially in the public view—swaps are overvalued in a trade for a star.

The Celtics last decade provided a proof of concept for the ideal outcome of a swap, from the receiving team’s perspective. The 2016-17 Nets had the worst record in the league and won the lottery, while the Celtics had the best record in the Eastern Conference and were slated for the no. 27 pick in the draft. But thanks to swap rights they received in the Paul Pierce–Kevin Garnett trade four years earlier, the Celtics were able to take that no. 1 pick for themselves while the Nets slid to 27th. After a predraft trade for the no. 3 pick—which belonged to the 76ers thanks to a pick swap with the Kings—Boston added Jayson Tatum to a team that had just reached the conference finals.

It's a bit of a gamble, but like the Celtics example demonstrates, it's a gamble worth taking, and it doesn't really cost you anything.

I like the return on the Beal trade a lot more after finding out about the pick swaps.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Doc...how does this Poole trade fit into the "master plan?" That is a lot of money for a 2030 protected pick and a second in 2027.

Is the hope that Poole at some point, gains trade value? If so, that's not a good gamble.

What are the protections on the pick? Because this year's 6th graders are crazy good. I bet. I'm sure. "I don't have the resawces to scout prep school ball". I'm gonna go get some curly fries.

My man Kenny B. RIP.

"432-WMAL. That is the number."

[smoothSeph]

Ok yeah, that's more like it:

Read on Twitter

4 first round pick swaps, that's double what was previously reported. Once PHX small window closes, those will be very, very interesting. Matched with the Poole deal, we got:

-Jordan Poole
-Landry Shamet
-Ryan Hollins
-7 2nd round picks
-4 pick swaps
-Protected first rounder

Ya'll are crazy that you don't think that's a good return on a dude that had a no trade clause. In with the "Winger Proving Doubters Wrong" thread.

Some of these guys need to get a PlayStation and open up franchise mode on NBA2k. They're expecting to bully everyone in the league in trades with no leverage. That's not how things work. These returns at worst are fine, could end up pretty good.