The Wizards, new to the notion of building from scratch, are on step … six or so. Hopefully, for Wizards fans, it won’t take more than 10 years for them to reach the other side. But, it might. Or, it may not happen at all.
Either way, this isn’t business as usual. This is, finally and at long last, a full-blown rebuild. You will have to adjust your thinking.
For starters, in WizardsWorld, under Michael Winger and Will Dawkins and Travis Schlenk, it’s already around 2027, not 2023. That’s what GMs and execs are supposed to do, of course — think three or four years ahead. But Washington’s new triumvirate has been especially good at seeing the trends before they happen, anticipating what and who will shake loose before others catch on. Again: The Clippers didn’t just luck into Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. They game-planned it, for two years. And pulled it off.
So, what will the NBA look like in four years — after the next TV deal has kicked in, and provided franchises with millions more in cap space and operational dollars? After the new CBA has been in place for a couple of years, requiring contending teams to really, really think hard about blowing through that second luxury tax apron. What teams will be growing desperate to make a deal? Which players the Wizards acquire between now and then will explode, and which will fail? Those pieces need to start being moved around, amassing the kind of draft/player capital in place now to be able to strike then, for a difference-making, franchise-shifting, talent.
And thinking ahead — way ahead — will require fans to be more discerning, to not lose your collective shizzle the nanosecond you hear about a trade in real time. Or, a draft pick. Like, for example, the Bradley Beal trade to Phoenix. Or, picking Bilal Coulibaly.
“We won’t take short-sighted approaches in the draft — we’ll take the guy who we think will be the best long-term player, the best long-term fit,” Dawkins said late Thursday, after the draft. “With (Coulibaly), it’s going to take a little while. We know that. And we have the confidence in the coaching staff, and we have the support from ownership, to be able to take that approach and make sure that we’re not settling, and we can go take a risk, or go take further time to do something. With him, we don’t think it’s a risk.”
Washington was excoriated by many in the first 24 to 48 hours after news of the Beal trade broke for not getting any first-round picks from Phoenix as if dozens of teams that smelled blood in the water with Beal’s no-trade clause looming would do anything to help the Wizards make a more palatable deal. No, the Wizards had to eat that no-trade. So they didn’t get a free and clear first from the Suns. But Washington wound up with six second-round picks from the Suns — every second-rounder Phoenix had between 2024 and 2030 (save 2029, which Phoenix has already dealt)!
Next year’s second-rounder from the Suns isn’t going to be very high. But, again … 2027. (And, 2028 and 2030, the last two of four years of first-round pick swaps Phoenix agreed to do with Washington as well in the Beal trade. Once again: Swaps don’t make sense with a team that’s better than you. Phoenix will be better than the Wizards for a while, so Washington will keep its near-certain higher picks in 2024 and ’26. But will the Suns still be superior in five years? Seven? Maybe not.)
Similarly, no one seemed to realize, or believe, that there would be a market for Chris Paul, also acquired by Washington, along with Landry Shamet, for Beal. But, there was. There always was. Which is why the notion that Washington would just cut the 38-year-old future Hall of Famer so he could walk to the Lakers or Clippers on a veteran minimum deal was ridiculous. That it became the Warriors who anted up for him was a surprise, but getting additional assets for Paul wasn’t.
The haul — Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Ryan Rollins, a 2027 Golden State second-round pick and a 2030 protected first — is more than adequate spoils for Paul — who, it must be repeated, was never going to play a minute in D.C. Baldwin was the Dubs’ 2022 first-round pick, taken 28th overall last year. He has talent. So does Rollins.
Look, Poole isn’t yet on the level of, say, Donovan Mitchell, Jaylen Brown or Tyrese Maxey — Eastern Conference two guards in his age range he’ll be competing with in the near future. But he’s better than Johnny Davis or whoever else would be vying for Beal’s old spot here. He can score. The Warriors won titles without Poole, of course, but he was a big, big part of their run in 2022. He had huge moments during that postseason. The moment was not too big for him.
But it’s fair to point out that Poole dropped off a cliff last season, and especially in the playoffs when the Dubs had to run Curry’s minutes into the red because their numbers with him off the floor — and with Poole on — were abysmal. That’s obviously part of why he was available. At the beginning of last season, the Warriors looked like they were moving on from Draymond Green and going forward with Poole; by season’s end, it was clear which of the two was staying — Green, the one who did the punching; not Poole, the one who got punched. It’s nonetheless reasonable to hope Poole’s form on the biggest stage a year ago is, if not the norm, at least occasionally repeatable.
Coulibaly? The Metropolitans 92 teammate of Victor Wembanyama definitely is an upside play. To me, it was a reach to go get the 6-8 wing at seven, trading two future seconds to the Pacers to move up one spot from eight — not because of the cost, but because of the high risk-high reward variance in taking the 18-year-old. He’s going to need a couple of years to get up to speed with the NBA game. Can he defend at this level? Probably. Is his shot, not great at the moment, likely to improve? Maybe. I’m still not sure it’s worth the risk that he doesn’t pan out when there was a more certain pick in Central Florida’s Taylor Hendricks.
The scouts I spoke with for my NBA Draft Confidential on Coulibaly and the other top wings in this year’s draft pegged him as a down-the-road 3-and-D guy.
But, again, you — and me, too — need to forget now, and think 2027. What will Coulibaly look like then? From that perspective, it’s an on-brand, OKC-like thing to do, which makes sense, as Dawkins was still a Thunder employee when he went to scout Coulibaly in Europe earlier this year.
The third of the mega-moves the locals made was Wednesday’s last-second salvage that allowed the Wizards to send Kristaps Porziņģis to Boston, with Washington and Boston swapping out Memphis for the Clippers to finish the three-team trade. To decry the fact that Boston got two firsts from the Grizzlies, while the Wiz got none, is to not at all understand how teams view trades. For Boston, the acquisition of Porziņģis and the trading of Smart were two separate transactions, tied into one. To part with Smart, the heart and soul of the Cs for so long, Boston demanded multiple firsts. Washington, obviously, wasn’t going to give a future first to Boston when it was already giving them Porziņģis. So, Memphis had to cough up two.
Meanwhile, Washington’s overarching goal was to get Porziņģis off its books, like Beal, as soon as possible. It mattered less what they got than what they accomplished.
Porziņģis wanted a two-year extension off of the $36 million he opted in for next season. Washington, obviously, wasn’t going to give it to him. Boston would, and will. The alternative for the Wizards was letting KP opt out of his deal, and become an unrestricted free agent July 1 — and getting back nothing in return.
But by making the deal, the Wizards got Tyus Jones, who’s been considered the best backup point guard in the league for a couple of years, from Memphis, along with Boston’s second-rounder — which Washington promptly flipped to Chicago, for two more future seconds. (Tristan Vukčević, a 20-year-old forward who played at Partizan Belgrade this season, whom Washington took with the 42nd pick Thursday, is likely a stash pick for next season, and maybe a few seasons after that.) The Wizards also got Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala from the Celtics. If they keep Gallinari, who’ll be returning from a torn ACL last fall, it will be to give him a chance to build up his trade value by the deadline next February.
Who knows if Jones, who’ll cost a lot to keep, will be on the roster a year from now? I’m guessing the Wizards were hoping the question would be moot because they were able to take Arkansas’ Anthony Black at eight. But the Magic took Black at six, forcing Washington to pivot. I’m also guessing the point guard market might look a little different in 12 months — or, by the trade deadline, in eight — and the Wizards would have a good problem if they choose to move Jones for more assets. (We haven’t even mentioned what Kyle Kuzma might bring back if he’s amenable to a sign-and-trade to his next squad. I’m assuming there’s going to be a next squad for him soon.)
At the end of this wild week in D.C., the Wizards have rejiggered the board. They will have significant cap space going forward, even after taking on Poole’s four-year, $128 million deal, which starts next season. In a week, the Wizards have gone from an over-the-cap team, unable to add veteran players for 2023 and ’24 other than through the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, to an under-the-cap team with tens of millions of dollars in cap room going forward.
What’s important about cap space for a bad team? Not the ability to sign free agents from other teams. Free agents aren’t going to sign here during a radical rebuild. What cap space will allow Washington to do is take on bad contracts from other teams. And teams that do that almost always get future firsts attached to those bad contracts.
And, left unsaid: All of these moves mean that Washington will be … godawful on the court next season. Terrible. Horrendous. This also means that the Wizards will almost certainly hold on to their 2024 first-round pick, which is due to the Knicks. But that pick is protected 1-12 next year for Washington, meaning the Wizards will keep the pick if they’re among the 12 bottom (or, top, depending on your perspective) teams next season. The pick is protected 1-10 for Washington in 2024-25, and 1-8 for Washington in 2025-26. If it hasn’t conveyed to New York by then, Washington will only owe New York second-rounders in 2026 and ’27.
I’m guessing the Wiz are holding on to that first for the foreseeable future. Even as the present presents to be somewhat bleak.
“When Mike and I were hired, we spent a lot of time with Mr. (Ted) Leonsis, and talked through what it would look like moving forward,” Dawkins said. “And we were able to kind of declare a path, and look at different options. A lot of that stuff will come to the light here, when we’re allowed to talk about everything (after July 1). But there is a plan in place. (Coulibaly) hits the plan very, very well. I think, if you look at the team that we’ll eventually be able to put on the floor this year, it’ll be a team that you’ll be proud of. It’ll be a team that will compete and have the substance that we’re looking for, to help young players play as well.”
So, here’s what Washington has, in relative order of importance, that it didn’t have at this time last week, in exchange for Beal and Porziņģis (I’m not counting Coulibaly among the additions, as Washington had its 2023 first before the deals):
• Significant 2023-24 cap space (potentially to be used in trades for expiring contracts — but, more importantly, future firsts)
• Jordan Poole (24, proven scorer, on a reasonable contract)
• Tyus Jones (starting PG, or a big trade asset)
• Danilo Gallinari
• Mike Muscala
• Four (!) first-round pick swaps with the Suns: 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030. The first two won’t matter; the last two might
• Five (!!) future seconds from Phoenix between 2024 and 2030 (originally six, but one of the seconds went to Indy in the Coulibaly trade)
• Likely to hold on to its first owed to New York in 2024 and 2025, maybe 2026
• Protected (1-20) 2030 first from the Warriors
• Two future seconds from the Bulls for pick 35 in the 2023 draft
• 2027 second-round pick from the Warriors
• Landry Shamet
• Patrick Baldwin Jr. (2022 Warriors first-round pick)
• Ryan Rollins
Who, or what, will all of that turn into by, say, 2027?
The (bleep’s) chess, not checkers.
But how valuable is a pick swap? To answer that question, we surveyed every first-round swap in NBA history, according to the Pro Sports Transactions archives. We recorded whether the swap was exercised, and if so, how much value the exercising team gained by exchanging picks, using Kevin Pelton’s calculations of pick values as a benchmark.
