The Anthony Black Thread

[Optimus_Steel]

The more I think about it, the more I feel like this Anthony Black pick mirrors the Mo Bamba pick in 2018.

In both scenarios the Magic drafted a player at 6 when they already had a semi-entrenched and decent starter going into the last year of his contract looking to play his way into a large extension..

Hopefully there will be two key differences from the summer of 2019 to now...

1. Black won't suck and be a bust like Bamba was
2. The Magic won't block him by resigning Fultz

In my opinion if there's *any* possibility of signing Fultz to another long-term contract, then Black should not have been picked.

I don't see them in similarity other than draft slot. Bamba was always going to be a project you hope would turn into something. At least Black has legitimate feel and understanding for the game.

[Knightro]

I don't see them in similarity other than draft slot. Bamba was always going to be a project you hope would turn into something. At least Black has legitimate feel and understanding for the game.

That wasn't really my point. It was about the roster construction.

The Magic seem primed to potentially repeat the mistake they made 5 years ago by retaining the player blocking their No. 6 overall pick.

Now it ended up not really mattering in the Vucevic/Bamba case because Mo was a bust that stunk anyway, but this is one of the real potential pitfalls to just going with a pure "draft the BPA" motto.

I am absolutely in favor of drafting BPA over fit, but as a front office you then have to make the appropriate corresponding moves to make everything fit.

[MasterGMer]

With these new developments it would be very bad to extend Fultz now even more.

Adding two guards in the lottery feels like a move you make when you are about to blow up the backcourt. I just don't see how exactly they do it given the need to return value and balance competitiveness. How would you handle it?

What I would do and what the Magic are going to do are vastly different

I would unload Fultz right now and give Black the keys to the car while retaining Cole in the backup scoring PG role he thrived in last season. I'd also offer an extension to Cole in the 15M AAV range.

I expect the Magic to either retain both Fultz *and* Cole in the exact roles they were in last season and use Black more as a SG/SF with scrap/injury minutes at PG or I expect them to trade Cole in the next 10 days and install Black as Fultz's backup for next season.

If you want to give up Fultz for nothing, why not trade him?

[Knightro]

If you want to give up Fultz for nothing, why not trade him?

Who wants the 23rd best PG in the league who makes 17.5M?

But really it's less about that and more about the fact that the Magic would have to bring near equal salary back in a trade and unless the player they brought in was also expiring, I wouldn't be super interested in eating up 2024 cap space when they could just be done with Fultz's money whenever they feel like it.

[Optimus_Steel]

I don't see them in similarity other than draft slot. Bamba was always going to be a project you hope would turn into something. At least Black has legitimate feel and understanding for the game.

That wasn't really my point. It was about the roster construction.

The Magic seem primed to potentially repeat the mistake they made 5 years ago by retaining the player blocking their No. 6 overall pick.

Now it ended up not really mattering in the Vucevic/Bamba case because Mo was a bust that stunk anyway, but this is one of the real potential pitfalls to just going with a pure "draft the BPA" motto.

I am absolutely in favor of drafting BPA over fit, but as a front office you then have to make the appropriate corresponding moves to make everything fit.

We'll see but Fultz is not exactly a top PG and I don't expect that to change whereas Vuc starting putting up All Star type numbers.

[3ddman23]

I just dont see the fit. I'm not against the player I just dont see how he fits and to me he doesn't project to be clearly better then what we currently have on the roster. I hope im wrong but like Knightro said it reminds me of the bamba draft a bit.

Now I think black is going to be a leaps and bounds better player then bamba, but his path to success is not clear like weltman stated in his interview.

[bigdogdylan5]

Idk I don’t see the Bamba comparison other than Fultz and Vuc are extension eligible. I think if we drafted Hendricks, Whitmore, or Walker with our best two players at the 3 and 4 that would be more comparable. If they couldn’t trade for established guard just keep drafting guard options and cycle through till one of them hits.

[Knightro]

We'll see but Fultz is not exactly a top PG and I don't expect that to change whereas Vuc starting putting up All Star type numbers.

And look, if Fultz unexpectedly plays like an all-star this season, that would be awesome. I'm rooting for that and that would certainly a good problem for the Magic.

But that wouldn't change their process on the pick. They have to factor all the possible outcomes before they commit such valuable draft capital to a guy that's presently blocked and this is the second time (on paper) they haven't really done that.

[bigdogdylan5]

We'll see but Fultz is not exactly a top PG and I don't expect that to change whereas Vuc starting putting up All Star type numbers.

And look, if Fultz unexpectedly plays like an all-star this season, that would be awesome. I'm rooting for that and that would certainly a good problem for the Magic.

But that wouldn't change their process on the pick. They have to factor all the possible outcomes before they commit such valuable draft capital to a guy that's presently blocked and this is the second time (on paper) they haven't really done that.

So who would you have picked at 6?

[fateis007]

On a positive twist, since i have been crapping on their drafting all of last night.

Anthony is a solid defender, move well, and has size. So its not ideal, but he can def play 1-3 in backup mins. So aslong as Suggs shot becomes respectable, and Cole is out there. We can still use him out there.

[Knightro]

Idk I don’t see the Bamba comparison other than Fultz and Vuc are extension. I think if we drafted Hendricks, Whitmore, or Walker with our best two players at the 3 and 4 that would be more comparable being our best players. If they couldn’t trade for established guard just keep drafting options and cycle through till one of them hits.

The comparison is this...

Vucevic and Bamba couldn't play together at the same time. So Bamba only got on the floor when Vucevic was off the floor. Then they resigned Vucevic, thus making Bamba a backup for a life of his rookie contract. That's bad process. Just because Bamba ended up being a bust doesn't change that.

Fultz and Black are VERY UNLIKELY IMO going to be able able to play together at the same time. So Black will only get on the floor when Fultz is off the floor. Like Vucevic, Fultz is a free agent to be and I feel like there's a very good chance he gets another contract with the Magic after this season.

If that does happen, then for the second time in five years, the Magic have willingly blocked their own highly drafted lotto pick when they didn't have to.

Now this doesn't really apply to shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards because generally speaking, they're all "wings" in some respect. Two shooting guards can play together without much issue. Two small forwards can play together without much issue. In a lot of cases two power forwards can too.

Two point guards together? Two centers together? Not so much.

[Knightro]

So who would you have picked at 6?

I think Black was a fine pick at 6... if the Magic willing to make the appropriate corresponding move to ensure him a rotation spot at his best position (PG).

If they're not willing to do that and ESPECIALLY if they're considering a new contract for Fultz next summer, I'd have picked Hendricks or even Couliably.

[Skybox]

Idk I don’t see the Bamba comparison other than Fultz and Vuc are extension. I think if we drafted Hendricks, Whitmore, or Walker with our best two players at the 3 and 4 that would be more comparable being our best players. If they couldn’t trade for established guard just keep drafting options and cycle through till one of them hits.

The comparison is this...

Vucevic and Bamba couldn't play together at the same time. So Bamba only got on the floor when Vucevic was off the floor. Then they resigned Vucevic, thus making Bamba a backup for a life of his rookie contract. That's bad process. Just because Bamba ended up being a bust doesn't change that.

Fultz and Black are VERY UNLIKELY IMO going to be able able to play together at the same time. So Black will only get on the floor when Fultz is off the floor. Like Vucevic, Fultz is a free agent to be and I feel like there's a very good chance he gets another contract with the Magic after this season.

If that does happen, then for the second time in five years, the Magic have willingly blocked their own highly drafted lotto pick when they didn't have to.

Now this doesn't really apply to shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards because generally speaking, they're all "wings" in some respect. Two shooting guards can play together without much issue. Two small forwards can play together without much issue. In a lot of cases two power forwards can too.

Two point guards together? Two centers together? Not so much.

This very clear conclusion has me excited...they couldn't possibly believe Fultz is the guy now...right?

[bigdogdylan5]

Idk I don’t see the Bamba comparison other than Fultz and Vuc are extension. I think if we drafted Hendricks, Whitmore, or Walker with our best two players at the 3 and 4 that would be more comparable being our best players. If they couldn’t trade for established guard just keep drafting options and cycle through till one of them hits.

The comparison is this...

Vucevic and Bamba couldn't play together at the same time. So Bamba only got on the floor with Vucevic was off the floor. Then they resigned Vucevic, thus making Bamba a backup for a life of his rookie contract. Bad process.

Fultz and Black are VERY UNLIKELY IMO going to be able able to play together at the same time. So Black will only get on the floor when Fultz is off the floor. Like Vucevic, Fultz is a free agent to be and I feel like there's a very good chance he gets another contract with the Magic after this season.

If that does happen, then for the second time in five years, the Magic have willingly blocked their own highly drafted lotto pick when they didn't have to.

Now this doesn't really apply to shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards because generally speaking, they're all "wings" in some respect. Two shooting guards can play together without much issue. Two small forwards can play together without much issue. In a lot of cases two power forwards can too.

Two point guards together? Two centers together? Not so much.

On same page Fultz and Black should never play together unless one just takes an incredible shot improvement which is really unlikely. I think that if we extend Fultz I will be really annoyed. I feel like the only way this makes sense is they want to hedge against Fultz not being here long term. If you believe in Fultz you should have just doubled up on the shooting. Take Dick and Howard, or Hawkins and Howard. This feels like they don’t want to pay Fultz 20 mil+ and unless he just blows up this might be the end.

[Knightro]

On same page Fultz and Black should never play together unless one just takes an incredible shot improvement which is really unlikely. I think that if we extend Fultz I will be really annoyed. I feel like the only way this makes sense is they want to hedge against Fultz not being here long term. If you believe in Fultz you should have just doubled up on the shooting. Take Dick and Howard, or Hawkins and Howard. This feels like they don’t want to pay Fultz 20 mil+ and unless he just blows up this might be the end.

I have seen a lot of people make this hedge argument and I just absolutely hate it.

No team should be hedging on their incumbent point guard with a high lotto pick. That's such a rotten way to do approach the draft.

I hope for Weltman and Hammond's sake that isn't what they actually did and they drafted Black because they expect him to be a damn good starting NBA point guard.

[orlando_joe]

I don't care about the lift on his shot...he only needs to be able to punish teams that back off and dare him. We don't have that now. That's what Harris does...he doesn't hunt shots, he takes only what he's given...so he's efficient but not very impactful.

I want Black as our starting PG and we need Herro or Simons at SG next to him...Suggs and Anthony have clear lanes to playing time if their spot up shooting continues to improve. Fultz has a clear lane to another team, IMO. I assume Black's not ready to take over yet, so I'd guess Fultz has a very good season and is moved at the trade deadline as Black's very similar, but bigger and better at everything -even if shooting is a weakness for both. We need a vet scorer in FA/trade and we have the pieces to get one (particularly one who's value is presently in question like Simons and Herro). POR and MIA are targeting a big move and we have the cap space and picks to help facilitate-and grab what we want, in the process.

you have to give this up..or are magic getting first rd picks to take them now with your trades?

[bigdogdylan5]

On same page Fultz and Black should never play together unless one just takes an incredible shot improvement which is really unlikely. I think that if we extend Fultz I will be really annoyed. I feel like the only way this makes sense is they want to hedge against Fultz not being here long term. If you believe in Fultz you should have just doubled up on the shooting. Take Dick and Howard, or Hawkins and Howard. This feels like they don’t want to pay Fultz 20 mil+ and unless he just blows up this might be the end.

I have seen a lot of people make this hedge argument and I just absolutely hate it.

No team should be hedging on their incumbent point guard with a high lotto pick. That's such a rotten way to do approach the draft.

I hope for Weltman and Hammond's sake that isn't what they actually did and they drafted Black because they expect him to be a damn good starting NBA point guard.

Man you’re picking out one word I say and just hammering it and like ignoring the context around it. This pick to me just feels like the writing on the wall for Fultz long term. I do not think they will cut or trade Fultz this off-season because I do think Fultz will be the better point guard next year when they want to compete for playoffs. This allows you to bring Black along slowly and not ask too much of him. Rookie guards rarely make an impact as rookies. I think barring some all star campaign by Fultz Next year will be Fultz last. Gosh damn I feel like we are saying the same thing lol

[VFX]

“Wait and see” with Fultz will happen.

It doesn’t matter to me what kind of season Fultz has. This was the same argument with Bamba and Vuc. You’ve spent the #6 pick on Anthony Black, then you get him on the court and don’t overpay someone you don’t need to pay 25-$30m because that’s “what you should do” and “you owe it to him”… NO. This is a business and you’ve made a business decision already. Move on and get other assets that make sense.

You can’t have both options because salary cap matters and minutes aren’t available for 4 guards wanting huge deals as starters.

I’m not “OK” waiting for Fultz to develop a shot in year 6 while the lotto pick 6’7 rookie with + defense gets backup backup minutes because the FO is terrified of making decisions and Fultz finally strung together 70 games where he didn’t look like a bust.

[drsd]

Here's a stat...

Going back to the 1992-1993 season, only 5 NCAA freshman have recorded at least 70 steals and at least 20 blocks in one year.

Anthony Black in 22-23
Zion Williamson in 18-19
Marcus Smart in 12-13
Tyreke Evans in 08-09
Cookie Belcher in 96-97

Cookie Belcher?

That's a random name!

[Magic#1]

On same page Fultz and Black should never play together unless one just takes an incredible shot improvement which is really unlikely. I think that if we extend Fultz I will be really annoyed. I feel like the only way this makes sense is they want to hedge against Fultz not being here long term. If you believe in Fultz you should have just doubled up on the shooting. Take Dick and Howard, or Hawkins and Howard. This feels like they don’t want to pay Fultz 20 mil+ and unless he just blows up this might be the end.

I have seen a lot of people make this hedge argument and I just absolutely hate it.

No team should be hedging on their incumbent point guard with a high lotto pick. That's such a rotten way to do approach the draft.

I hope for Weltman and Hammond's sake that isn't what they actually did and they drafted Black because they expect him to be a damn good starting NBA point guard.

Man you’re picking out one word I say and just hammering it and like ignoring the context around it. This pick to me just feels like the writing on the wall for Fultz long term. I do not think they will cut or trade Fultz this off-season because I do think Fultz will be the better point guard next year when they want to compete for playoffs. This allows you to bring Black along slowly and not ask too much of him. Rookie guards rarely make an impact as rookies. I think barring some all star campaign by Fultz Next year will be Fultz last. Gosh damn I feel like we are saying the same thing lol

Even as Kelle has done some good things and was certainly worth the gamble, there are still questions marks. For Fultz to get a new contract, 70+ games is needed for me. I really appreciate the kid's heart and the team is better with him, but he needs to be on the court.
As for Black, I am so hoping he and Suggs can improve their shot because they could be an absolute terror as a defensive backcourt. I also think the NBA and us are moving away from traditional positions. I think it's going to be rare that most players are just one position. Right now, sometimes I see our offense being run through Fultz, sometimes Franz, sometimes Paolo, sometimes Suggs and sometimes Black. All have some ability to initiate offense and be the playmaker. Hard to say how effective it would be but I see the strategy.