hugepatsfan wrote:Assuming we sign Jordan Walsh to a rookie minimum deal like the new CBA allows with second round picks, we are at $174,377,249 in salary for 12 players (pkus the last year of Demetrius Jackson's dead money lol):
White / Brogdon / Pritchard
Brown
Tatum / Hauser / Walsh
Porzingis / Champagnie
RWilliams / Horford / Kornet
(I just listed guys at their most natural position, please do not take this literally to mean that I think Champganie would be a second unit player over Pritchard, Kornet or even Walsh)
The key benchmarks to compare that salary to, with 3 open spots to fill:
1) The luxury tax line is $165M. We are $9,377,249 into the luxury tax right now.
2) The first tax apron is $172M. We are $2,377,249 over that line. This is the level you become hard capped at if you use the full MLE or acquire a player via sign & trade.
3) The second tax apron is $182.5M. We are $8,122,751 below that line. This is what we would be hard capped at if we use the tax payers MLE.
Key salary levels that apply to different free agents:
1) Rookie minimum = $1,102,829. This is what would apply to Mader or Begarin if we brought them over, as well as any UDFAs.
2) 2nd year minimum = $1,801,491. This would apply to JD Davison if we signe dhim to an NBA deal.
3) Vet minimum = $1,927,896. This is what the tax number would be for any vet we sign with 2 or more years of NBA service (if more than 2 years they would actually be paid more than this, but this is all that would count on our tax calc, unless the deal is more than 1 year then they count actual salary).
4) Tax payers MLE = $5M
5) Bi-Annual exception = $4.515M
6) Full MLE = $12.403M
Right now, if we used the tax payers MLE ($5M), signed JD Davison, and signed Begarin to fill the last 3 spots, I'd have us at $182,281,569 in salary. So we'd be juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuust below the $182.5M 2nd tax apron.
This is a great breakdown.
I would add that at that sub $1M under the apron, imo you have to assume they plan on going over. They will likely have 1-3 two-way guys, and teams may only carry 14 but they almost always have 15 at least to 20 total players over the year as bench guys come and go and the salaries they make get accrued to the total.
So my thought on this is: they either 1). blow past the second apron. or, 2.) don't use the MLE (or at most ~3M).
Tl;dr It's safe to assume imo that they go to one extreme or the other. Sitting $200k under the apron will push them over with bench guys, incentives for playoff wins, etc.
Obviously depends on trades but mainly feeling like Grant Williams is prob better than what they can get for 3-5M on the FA market. Personally I think they just go over but it's doable to stay under with a lot of cheap depth if that is better for flexibility.
