Moderators: Def Swami, Howard Mass, ChosenSavior, UCF, Knightro, UCFJayBird
MagicMatic wrote:Black is comparable to Giddey in size, playmaking, and vision. He’s less proficient in passing but more proficient defensively.
I know a lot of people were very high on Giddey, so I’m not too sure why people aren’t higher on Black.
The pick will be a home run when the FO figures out how to balance the roster.
Black is nothing like EP. He’s an elite prospect with crazy athleticism and size for his position.
JBSouthpaw wrote:I think Black will have a better shooting rookie year than Suggs(low bar, I know)
J the Drafter wrote:People choose to only remember the Elfrid of his last few months here, where his sore knee slowed him down. Prior to that time he did everything you could ask for in a point guard offensively except shoot.
On defense, he was never comfortable navigating screens. Performance-wise, he took a few months every season to reach his triple-double-dropping peak.
But man, the second news about his knee dropped and his performance faltered, people began acting like he’d been bad all along.
Tl;dr, Payton’s problem was that he was playing on an injured knee during WeltHam’s evaluation year.
eyriq wrote:What is his path to 1st team all rookie honors?
drsd wrote:eyriq wrote:What is his path to 1st team all rookie honors?
drsd wrote:JBSouthpaw wrote:I think Black will have a better shooting rookie year than Suggs(low bar, I know)
Suggs had the worst measurable shooting year by a rookie starting guard ever, I believe. He was 36.1% with a 21.4% three ball. Only a very late season burst took his eFG% to 40%.
Suggs was historically bad his rookie year. He did finished at a competent 11.8 PPG given his usage rate though.
Here's some intersting stats for players Suggs scored more on in a rookie year:
Steve Nash 3.3 PPG
Kobe Bryant 7.6 PPG
John Stockton 5.6 PPG
Gary Payton 7.2 PPG
Scottie Pippen 7.9 PPG
Kawhi Leonard 7.9 PPG
Dirk Nowitzki 8.2 PPG
James Harden 9.9 PPG
Reggie Miller 10.0 PPG
Jimmy Butler 2.6 PPG
DeMar DeRozan 8.6 PPG
Tony Parker 9.2 PPG
Paul George 7.8 PPG
Rajon Rondo 6.4 PPG
Deron Williams 10.8 PPG
Rookie are bad. Ball handling rookies are worse. Black will have a horrible rookie year. But it is good that he gets to do that as a bench player without all the pressure and focus that comes from starting as a lead-guard rookie.
eyriq wrote:drsd wrote:eyriq wrote:What is his path to 1st team all rookie honors?
What does this mean?
Yeah, that's kinda what I thoughtthelead wrote:eyriq wrote:drsd wrote:
What does this mean?
Nothing as all-rookie teams are selected prior to the nba championships
bigdogdylan5 wrote:This is exactly my point and you said it brilliantly. To expect him to run an inspiring playoff team as starting PG is looney toons. Don’t extend Fultz have him be our starter. Have Black play on ball PG for second unit bring him on slow. Then we let Fultz walk and hand the keys to Black. If Fultz explodes and has an all star year then that’s a great problem and we figure it out from there.
Knightro wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:This is exactly my point and you said it brilliantly. To expect him to run an inspiring playoff team as starting PG is looney toons. Don’t extend Fultz have him be our starter. Have Black play on ball PG for second unit bring him on slow. Then we let Fultz walk and hand the keys to Black. If Fultz explodes and has an all star year then that’s a great problem and we figure it out from there.
There’s a lot more issues and pitfalls with this than you realize.
#1 - Cole is still here and unless he’s traded he’s unequivocally earned the right to remain the backup PG/6th man because he was so good in that role last season.
#2 - I think it’s absolutely crazy to assume this front office is going to just let Fultz walk away after this season coming off what is going to likely be at least a play in appearance if not a full blown playoff appearance.
Like deep down do you really think, regardless of how he plays, that Fultz could potentially start 70-75 games on a playoff team and they’re just gonna let him walk?
That absolutely will not happen IMO.
Knightro wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:This is exactly my point and you said it brilliantly. To expect him to run an inspiring playoff team as starting PG is looney toons. Don’t extend Fultz have him be our starter. Have Black play on ball PG for second unit bring him on slow. Then we let Fultz walk and hand the keys to Black. If Fultz explodes and has an all star year then that’s a great problem and we figure it out from there.
There’s a lot more issues and pitfalls with this than you realize.
#1 - Cole is still here and unless he’s traded he’s unequivocally earned the right to remain the backup PG/6th man because he was so good in that role last season.
#2 - I think it’s absolutely crazy to assume this front office is going to just let Fultz walk away after this season coming off what is going to likely be at least a play in appearance if not a full blown playoff appearance.
Like deep down do you really think, regardless of how he plays, that Fultz could potentially start 70-75 games on a playoff team and they’re just gonna let him walk?
That absolutely will not happen IMO.
MagicMatic wrote:Knightro wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:This is exactly my point and you said it brilliantly. To expect him to run an inspiring playoff team as starting PG is looney toons. Don’t extend Fultz have him be our starter. Have Black play on ball PG for second unit bring him on slow. Then we let Fultz walk and hand the keys to Black. If Fultz explodes and has an all star year then that’s a great problem and we figure it out from there.
There’s a lot more issues and pitfalls with this than you realize.
#1 - Cole is still here and unless he’s traded he’s unequivocally earned the right to remain the backup PG/6th man because he was so good in that role last season.
#2 - I think it’s absolutely crazy to assume this front office is going to just let Fultz walk away after this season coming off what is going to likely be at least a play in appearance if not a full blown playoff appearance.
Like deep down do you really think, regardless of how he plays, that Fultz could potentially start 70-75 games on a playoff team and they’re just gonna let him walk?
That absolutely will not happen IMO.
I don’t know how many times this needs to be explained in different variations…
I give up. I feel like people keep making these qualifying statements about the trajectory of Fultz contract and still don’t understand the implications of how the nba works with these deals.
It absolutely 100% doesn’t matter what Fultz does now this season. He is being brought back because his value is lesser than his contract price. He is not at the point in his career that Orlando can let him walk. That window was last season with 2 years left on his deal in a trade. He is now on an expiring deal as a bottom 5-7 point guard. He is not “playing into” anything unless he is traded.
The absolute best option is to move Fultz now and have Cole run lead point while AB gets his reps. There aren’t enough minutes on the roster right now for any other option to make sense unless Cole is moved and they triple down on guards that don’t shoot.
bigdogdylan5 wrote:Cole hasn’t earned anything he had one efficient year and two inefficient chucker years. None of these guards have earned anything. Suggs needs to prove he belongs on offense. Fultz needs to shoot and take care of the ball better and maybe he now wants 20-25 mil a year that he hasn’t earned. That is what I believe Weltman is saying loud and clear with his selections. It’s no longer gifted minutes time. You guards have to go out there and out work Anthony Black because he is coming for your spot with all his force of will. Jett Howard is going to play hungry because he wants to earn your minutes. I will keep saying this but all 3 of our guards everyone loves can’t prove they can stay healthy. Hell if one of Fultz Anthony or Suggs is more healthy to start last year maybe we don’t go 5-22 or w/e and we actually have a shot to fight for play in.
I will say one last thing. Picking Black will be an unequivocal error if you truly believe no matter what Fultz is your guy. Then you drafted a 6th pick that can’t play next to your PG. If Fultz balls out and we make playoffs because of him then that’s an interesting conversation. If we make playoffs because Franz and Paolo carry us and get better or Wendell levels up or one of the other guards shows out. You made the pick and you have to be willing to move off Fultz otherwise you screwed up and should have taken Hendricks who really was the only other option. The fans are clearly no concern of them to a point it’s kind of funny lol.
bigdogdylan5 wrote:This makes no sense! None nada! You are saying he has no value his value is less than his contract right? Then **** let him go. Why can’t we just not resign him and let him sign somewhere else. That is an option. Why are you saying it’s an inevitable we will sign him to a contract more than his value? Those days are over. This tax apron changes everything you can’t have two max players and 3 other players making 20 million. Look at the Clips and the Warriors they are screwed with the second apron.
I would recommend going and listening to bill Simmons and Russillo where they analyze this ****. You can’t pay your non stars more than they are worth anymore and just preserve the asset. You have to be smarter now.
bigdogdylan5 wrote:MagicMatic wrote:Knightro wrote:
There’s a lot more issues and pitfalls with this than you realize.
#1 - Cole is still here and unless he’s traded he’s unequivocally earned the right to remain the backup PG/6th man because he was so good in that role last season.
#2 - I think it’s absolutely crazy to assume this front office is going to just let Fultz walk away after this season coming off what is going to likely be at least a play in appearance if not a full blown playoff appearance.
Like deep down do you really think, regardless of how he plays, that Fultz could potentially start 70-75 games on a playoff team and they’re just gonna let him walk?
That absolutely will not happen IMO.
I don’t know how many times this needs to be explained in different variations…
I give up. I feel like people keep making these qualifying statements about the trajectory of Fultz contract and still don’t understand the implications of how the nba works with these deals.
It absolutely 100% doesn’t matter what Fultz does now this season. He is being brought back because his value is lesser than his contract price. He is not at the point in his career that Orlando can let him walk. That window was last season with 2 years left on his deal in a trade. He is now on an expiring deal as a bottom 5-7 point guard. He is not “playing into” anything unless he is traded.
The absolute best option is to move Fultz now and have Cole run lead point while AB gets his reps. There aren’t enough minutes on the roster right now for any other option to make sense unless Cole is moved and they triple down on guards that don’t shoot.
This makes no sense! None nada! You are saying he has no value his value is less than his contract right? Then **** let him go. Why can’t we just not resign him and let him sign with someone else. That is an option. Why are you saying it’s an inevitable we will sign him to a contract more than his value? Those days are over. This tax apron changes everything you can’t have two max players and 3 other players making 20 million. Look at the Clips and the Warriors they are screwed with the second apron.
I would recommend going and listening to bill Simmons and Russillo where they analyze this ****. You can’t pay your no stars more than they are worth anymore and just preserve the asset. You have to be smarter now.
Knightro wrote:bigdogdylan5 wrote:Cole hasn’t earned anything he had one efficient year and two inefficient chucker years. None of these guards have earned anything. Suggs needs to prove he belongs on offense. Fultz needs to shoot and take care of the ball better and maybe he now wants 20-25 mil a year that he hasn’t earned. That is what I believe Weltman is saying loud and clear with his selections. It’s no longer gifted minutes time. You guards have to go out there and out work Anthony Black because he is coming for your spot with all his force of will. Jett Howard is going to play hungry because he wants to earn your minutes. I will keep saying this but all 3 of our guards everyone loves can’t prove they can stay healthy. Hell if one of Fultz Anthony or Suggs is more healthy to start last year maybe we don’t go 5-22 or w/e and we actually have a shot to fight for play in.
I will say one last thing. Picking Black will be an unequivocal error if you truly believe no matter what Fultz is your guy. Then you drafted a 6th pick that can’t play next to your PG. If Fultz balls out and we make playoffs because of him then that’s an interesting conversation. If we make playoffs because Franz and Paolo carry us and get better or Wendell levels up or one of the other guards shows out. You made the pick and you have to be willing to move off Fultz otherwise you screwed up and should have taken Hendricks who really was the only other option. The fans are clearly no concern of them to a point it’s kind of funny lol.
I dunno man…
Cole was legitimately very good last season. It’s not at all out of line to say he was one of the best backup point guards in the league. Sure, he was a failed starter, but as a 20-25 MPG backup? He thrived.
To suggest he hasn’t at least earned the right to have his same spot from last year is silly to me.
And to your second paragraph, that is literally what me, MagicMatic and several others have been saying since Thursday!
MagicMatic wrote:
Because good GMs don’t let assets walk that they’ve sunk time and money into. Weltman isn’t making that decision to cut ties.
Let me give you this scenario. This is Fultz contract year and Orlando has three point guards on the roster. Now, do you think that’s a good idea given the fact that AB will need minutes and Cole will absolutely be fighting for minutes as well? No, That’s a terrible situation. Why? Because regardless of if Fultz has the same exact season as 2022-23, or he reaches the next level, they’ve already invested a #6 pick into AB. You cannot believe Fultz will make less money on this contract than his last with an uptick in production in year 6-7.
Yes, Orlando could let him walk. That will never happen if he posts better numbers in a contract year. The only way that happens is if he regresses significantly, which will not happen. You are fooling yourself if you think he isn’t being resigned at this point (trade notwithstanding). “Just wait and see” at this juncture was last season. You believe in Fultz. It’s fine. You don’t have to keep playing this card like you don’t understand how contracts work for guys making over a certain amount before they become unrestricted free agents. They even moved Bamba for something.
Yes I’m glad you brought up the CBA. That’s exactly the reason you cannot pay Fultz after drafting AB and needing to pay Paolo/Franz within a few years. That’s an enormous gamble. You move him and hope AB develops as quickly as Franz so the window is open to use money elsewhere in a playoff roster scenario. Money that doesn’t exist paying Fultz as a starter and Cole as a backup.