Bradley Beal, Jordan Goodwin & Isaiah Todd TRADED to the Phoenix Suns for CP3, Shamet, six 2nd rounders, & pick swaps

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

Ok... now that the dust has settled, here's how this trade wound up:

The Wizards send out:
Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd
the rights to Trayce Jackson-Davis

The Wizards receive:
Jordan Poole
Landry Shamet
Patrick Baldwin
Ryan Rollins
a 2030 first round pick (from GS: top-20 protected)
a 2027 R2 pick (from GS)
6 R2 picks (from Phoenix)
a 2028 R1 pick swap with Phoenix

Do I have that right? Anything I'm missing? Either that we sent out or that we received?

[DCZards]

Ok... now that the dust has settled, here's how this trade wound up:

The Wizards send out:
Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd
the rights to Trayce Jackson-Davis

The Wizards receive:
Jordan Poole
Landry Shamet
Patrick Baldwin
Ryan Rollins
a 2030 first round pick (from GS: top-20 protected)
a 2027 R2 pick (from GS)
6 R2 picks (from Phoenix)
a 2028 R1 pick swap with Phoenix

Do I have that right? Anything I'm missing? Either that we sent out or that we received?

The Zards also received these R1 pick swaps with Phoenix: 2024, 2026, and 2030.

[payitforward]

I wonder whether those who viewed the Beal trade as "WTF?" would still view it that way.

Here's how I look at it:

1. If we'd traded Goodwin, Todd, & the rights to TJ-D in return for Baldwin, Shamet & Ryan Rollins, I would have viewed that trade as: a) useful & b) at least fair, maybe better (it's a deal I would have done).

2. Which means, in effect, that we traded Brad for the rest of what came in: Jordan Poole, a R1 pick in 2030, a R1 pick swap w/ Phoenix in 2028, & 7 R2 picks over the next several years.

3. As I judge the Beal part it looks pretty good to me.

a. We'd have gotten a lot more if we'd moved him 2 or 3 off seasons ago; Brad is definitely not the player he was 2 or 3 years ago.
b. We'd have gotten a lot more for Brad if he wasn't over-paid & guaranteed for all those years going out, but we gave him that deal.
c Even overpaid, we'd have gotten more for Brad if the team trading for him weren't stuck with the very same burdensome no-trade clause we were stuck with -- which gives him total control over where/how he can be traded.
d. It's worth noting that there were no other offers for Brad.

In short, given what Winger & Dawkins were stuck with, I'd call this a terrific trade.
Am I wrong? If so, how...?

[payitforward]

Ok... now that the dust has settled, here's how this trade wound up:

The Wizards send out:
Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd
the rights to Trayce Jackson-Davis

The Wizards receive:
Jordan Poole
Landry Shamet
Patrick Baldwin
Ryan Rollins
a 2030 first round pick (from GS: top-20 protected)
a 2027 R2 pick (from GS)
6 R2 picks (from Phoenix)
a 2028 R1 pick swap with Phoenix

Do I have that right? Anything I'm missing? Either that we sent out or that we received?

The Zards also received these R1 pick swaps with Phoenix: 2024, 2026, and 2030.

Forgot that!
I expect Phoenix to go downhill next year -- but not that far! The 2026 swap might be useful. The 2030 has even more probability of being good!

[doclinkin]

Those pick swaps could prove key. Even sooner than you might think. Phoenix has no depth whatsoever beyond their big three. Four if you count Deandre Ayton.

Ayton has been complaining already about not receiving touches, and that was with a Hall of Fame point guard distributing the ball. Now you have three high usage players, all who need touches, two of which have had injury issues.

The Team has no depth, is capped out into the luxury tax, and can only add players via exceptions. They’ve given away all of their draft capital.

I don’t wish injury on anyone, but the likelihood of late career players being totally healthy dwindles fast. Least ways they are unlikely to get more healthy. Though PHX has a great medical program. Still. Beal had to sit large stretches of this past season.

This reminds me of the Brooklyn Boston trade that netted Jayson Tatum for the Celtics. Only we have multiple opportunities for Phoenix to pass us their Tatums.

[popper]

Not sure where to post this but Shamet seems like a first class guy with a lot of versatility.

https://www.nba.com/news/wichita-state-landry-shamet-raises-profile-nba-draft-prospect

[doclinkin]

I like Shamet as an outside shooting role player. We need players who can spread the floor for our players to cut and drive.

As a trade asset teams are always looking for three point shooting specialists.

[FAH1223]

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[gambitx777]

Dude I'm just dreaming of like our team being better than expected. Getting like the 13th pick and the suns flaming out with injuries and depth issues. Getting bumped to the top three and we swap to daudge the protections and New York take the suns pick instead and we get a top three pick and decent season and the suns get nothing.

Not sure if that's how it works but I can dream.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Rafael122]

With all the chaos going on during free agency, better to be two weeks early than to be two weeks late. Can't imagine we would have gotten all those pick swaps now with Harden being available.

[nate33]

Those pick swaps could prove key. Even sooner than you might think. Phoenix has no depth whatsoever beyond their big three. Four if you count Deandre Ayton.

Ayton has been complaining already about not receiving touches, and that was with a Hall of Fame point guard distributing the ball. Now you have three high usage players, all who need touches, two of which have had injury issues.

The Team has no depth, is capped out into the luxury tax, and can only add players via exceptions. They’ve given away all of their draft capital.

I don’t wish injury on anyone, but the likelihood of late career players being totally healthy dwindles fast. Least ways they are unlikely to get more healthy. Though PHX has a great medical program. Still. Beal had to sit large stretches of this past season.

This reminds me of the Brooklyn Boston trade that netted Jayson Tatum for the Celtics. Only we have multiple opportunities for Phoenix to pass us their Tatums.

I agree that Phoenix is doing an awful job and they will probably be a lot worse than expected, a lot sooner than expected. But I don't see any scenario where those pick swaps in 2024 or 2026 come into play. I guess the one caveat is that it's theoretically possible for Phoenix to barely miss the playoffs, and then land a top 4 pick in the lottery. But other than that, those swaps in 2024 or 2026 are unlikely to matter because, no matter how bad Phoenix is in those seasons, we will be worse.

[payitforward]

Those pick swaps could prove key. Even sooner than you might think. Phoenix has no depth whatsoever beyond their big three. Four if you count Deandre Ayton.

Ayton has been complaining already about not receiving touches, and that was with a Hall of Fame point guard distributing the ball. Now you have three high usage players, all who need touches, two of which have had injury issues.

The Team has no depth, is capped out into the luxury tax, and can only add players via exceptions. They’ve given away all of their draft capital.

I don’t wish injury on anyone, but the likelihood of late career players being totally healthy dwindles fast. Least ways they are unlikely to get more healthy. Though PHX has a great medical program. Still. Beal had to sit large stretches of this past season.

This reminds me of the Brooklyn Boston trade that netted Jayson Tatum for the Celtics. Only we have multiple opportunities for Phoenix to pass us their Tatums.

I agree that Phoenix is doing an awful job and they will probably be a lot worse than expected, a lot sooner than expected. But I don't see any scenario where those pick swaps in 2024 or 2026 come into play. I guess the one caveat is that it's theoretically possible for Phoenix to barely miss the playoffs, and then land a top 4 pick in the lottery. But other than that, those swaps in 2024 or 2026 are unlikely to matter because, no matter how bad Phoenix is in those seasons, we will be worse.

That's how it's looked to me since the moment I got wind of the trade. I thought it was absolutely brilliant. We got a zillion picks & pick swaps, we got the better player, & the guy we got did NOT have a no-trade clause -- meaning that we would have no trouble trading him.

Especially, since he's a Hall of Fame player!
At his best, Bradley Beal isn't nearly as good as Chris Paul -- even the late career version.

Could we have sent Brad to the Warriors, for example, & gotten back what we got for Chris Paul?
The answer to that question is "maybe."

Only, the way our new guys worked it out, we got the GS stuff -- 3 players & the GS pick swaps -- plus everything else we got from Phoenix! Wow....

& that's the set of moves which media pundits are giving us a "D" for.
& that according to Dat meant GMs were seeing "blood in the water."

& that a number of other posters on this board thought was awful.
Unbelievable...

H#ll, it was only yesterday that tleikeen was crowing about how Phoenix was going to rise to the top of the Western Conference. Unnnhhh, I don't think so.

I can see no way whatever that Phoenix does as well as they did last year.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

Ok... now that the dust has settled, here's how this trade wound up:

The Wizards send out:
Bradley Beal
Jordan Goodwin
Isaiah Todd
the rights to Trayce Jackson-Davis

The Wizards receive:
Jordan Poole
Landry Shamet
Patrick Baldwin
Ryan Rollins
a 2030 first round pick (from GS: top-20 protected)
a 2027 R2 pick (from GS)
6 R2 picks (from Phoenix)
a 2028 R1 pick swap with Phoenix

Do I have that right? Anything I'm missing? Either that we sent out or that we received?

The deal was for 4 R1 pick swaps in 2024, 2026, 2028, and 2030.

[payitforward]

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[doclinkin]

I agree that Phoenix is doing an awful job and they will probably be a lot worse than expected, a lot sooner than expected. But I don't see any scenario where those pick swaps in 2024 or 2026 come into play. I guess the one caveat is that it's theoretically possible for Phoenix to barely miss the playoffs, and then land a top 4 pick in the lottery. But other than that, those swaps in 2024 or 2026 are unlikely to matter because, no matter how bad Phoenix is in those seasons, we will be worse.

Consider if the Wizards had one of the top 3 worst records in the NBA in 2024 or 2026.

Imagine that PHX got bit by the dangerous gods of probability. Beal KD and Booker missed a combined 32+35+29 = 96 games last year. They are unlikely to be healthier because that is how age works in sports. Let's say they miss the playoffs and have the 8th worst record overall.

The top 3 records have identical chances to earn one of the top 4 slots.
14% for Wembanyama, 13.4% for Scoot, 12.7% for Miller, 12.0% for Amen

The 8th pick has significantly smaller odds: 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.2
But you have the choice of either, you essentially own all those pingpong ball combinations.
Suddenly you have an edge on your fellow bottom dwellers.
You wouldn't rather have these odds instead: 20% Wembanyama, 19.7% Scoot, 19.4% Miller, 19.4% Amen ?

This year we were hoping to slip 2 spots to qualify for a slightly better chance.
Talking about the difference between a 9% chance and a 6% chance at #1.

I'd much rather take a 1 in 5 shot at a franchise changing talent, than less than a 1 in 10 crapshoot.

Shoot, consider if we were better than expected and landed the 5th worst record. And PHX was only the 9th worst.
5th: 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5
9th: 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7
Combined: 15% Wembanyama, 15.3% Scoot, 15.8% Miller, 16.2% Amen.
Still better than the bottom 3.

But even if we were in the bottom 3 worst and PHX just barely missed the playoffs as the 10th seed, getting beaten in the play-in rounds.
14.0 13.4 12.7 12.0
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4
combined 15.0 14.5 13.9 13.4
Still better odds than any of the other bottom 3.

If you are tanking, it's about shaving every bit of probability in your favor. The OKC/PIF methods are about getting more bites at the apple lower down. Figuring that you may hit a good player if you have all the 2nd round picks to choose from. The pick swap method works the math at the top end of the draft. Without having to sign multiple players (or pay guaranteed contracts for two lottery players higher up on the pay scale).

We can be worse than PHX. But random chance happens. You just want to weight that random in your favor. Make your own luck.