Magic Draft - Game Theory Version

AaronB · Post #1 » by **AaronB** » Sun Jun 25, 2023 4:47 pm

So I was disappointed with the Magic draft.

I would have given it a very good grade had they chosen Lively at 11, but that did not happen. It looked like they had game-theoried (is that a word?) to get the best possible result (an elite PG and an elite defensive C). I would have chosen Wallace at 6 because I think that a shooting PG was the real need, but that is me.

So now the question is why did it happen the way it did?

There are actually different levels of game theory going on that are each providing a different set of variables that need to be accounted in the decision-making.

1. Taking 2 guards is probably the result of the conversations that were had with Fultz and Cole not going well. I don't think that they were willing to sign on team-friendly (not stupid team-friendly) terms. Now Fultz and Cole are in a bad place fighting for minutes. Harris is gone and that will save money. I think that both Cole and Fultz lost themselves a lot of money by not being proactive in the desire to sign a friendly contract.

2. Both Black and Jett (should I say Jett Black?) have the size to play SF. This spells the end of Okeke with the Magic. He was always a marginal fit for a SF anyway. I like Houstan, but I think this marginalizes him also.

3. I think not taking Lively was the big surprise to me. Defensive/Backup center was such an obvious need while a great option was just sitting there to be had. I think that there must have been enough "non-official" communications to prospective Cs in free agency that the Magic felt they had better options. It is also possible that they really like their in-house options.

In the end, this was the biggest head-scratcher in the entire draft by any team.

tiderulz · Post #2 » by **tiderulz** » Sun Jun 25, 2023 7:44 pm

AaronB wrote:So I was disappointed with the Magic draft.

I would have given it a very good grade had they chosen Lively at 11, but that did not happen. It looked like they had game-theoried (is that a word?) to get the best possible result (an elite PG and an elite defensive C). I would have chosen Wallace at 6 because I think that a shooting PG was the real need, but that is me.

So now the question is why did it happen the way it did?

There are actually different levels of game theory going on that are each providing a different set of variables that need to be accounted in the decision-making.

1. Taking 2 guards is probably the result of the conversations that were had with Fultz and Cole not going well. I don't think that they were willing to sign on team-friendly (not stupid team-friendly) terms. Now Fultz and Cole are in a bad place fighting for minutes. Harris is gone and that will save money. I think that both Cole and Fultz lost themselves a lot of money by not being proactive in the desire to sign a friendly contract.

2. Both Black and Jett (should I say Jett Black?) have the size to play SF. This spells the end of Okeke with the Magic. He was always a marginal fit for a SF anyway. I like Houstan, but I think this marginalizes him also.

3. I think not taking Lively was the big surprise to me. Defensive/Backup center was such an obvious need while a great option was just sitting there to be had. I think that there must have been enough "non-official" communications to prospective Cs in free agency that the Magic felt they had better options. It is also possible that they really like their in-house options.

In the end, this was the biggest head-scratcher in the entire draft by any team.

Cason was a shooting PG? i didnt see that in him.

1 - i think it was just that we had one of the worst guard rotations in the league last year, and out 3 pt shooting was horrible too. Black is big enough to handle PG/SG and Jett may be big enough (whenever he gets measured) to play SG/SF. that they even took a PG at #6 to me, says they felt they needed to upgrade from Fultz.

2 - Black wont be able to play SF unless he adds another 15-20 lbs and a lot of strength. he looks very skinny. and honestly, Okeke had run his course. unless he makes some giant leap this year, this will be his last year with the Magic.

3 - not taking Lively was zero surprise to me. Thought he was getting drastically overrated. for a team that needed shooting, drafting a back up center in the lottery was the last thing i thought they would/should do. you can find a serviceable big man in the free agent market.

Post #3 » by **Bensational** » Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:32 pm

tiderulz wrote:Cason was a shooting PG? i didnt see that in him.

Cason shot 48% from 3 in November and December (29/61). The kid can shoot, it’s just consistency he needs to develop.

tiderulz · Post #4 » by **tiderulz** » Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:08 pm

Bensational wrote:
tiderulz wrote:Cason was a shooting PG? i didnt see that in him.

Cason shot 48% from 3 in November and December (29/61). The kid can shoot, it’s just consistency he needs to develop.

not attacking you, but i hate cherry picking stats. so what happened Jan-March? was he just hot in 2 months? did he revert to true form?

Post #5 » by **Bensational** » Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:27 pm

tiderulz wrote:
Bensational wrote:
tiderulz wrote:Cason was a shooting PG? i didnt see that in him.

Cason shot 48% from 3 in November and December (29/61). The kid can shoot, it’s just consistency he needs to develop.

not attacking you, but i hate cherry picking stats. so what happened Jan-March? was he just hot in 2 months? did he revert to true form?

He had a terrible Jan-Mar which brought his averages down. 15/66 for 23%. Not sure what brought it on but he did suffer a back injury early January.

I’d say 2 months of good shooting is proof that it’s not just a blip. Cold snaps can happen to the best of shooters. So like I said, he can shoot he just needs consistency.

AaronB · Post #6 » by **AaronB** » Mon Jun 26, 2023 3:40 am

Had Wallace not injured his back, he was a top 5 pick. Interestingly (one of the reasons this is associated with Game theory), if the Magic had picked Wallace at 6, Lively probably would not have been there at 11 but would have been taken at 10.

I also think if Jett had not gotten injured, good chance he goes to 7 or 8. Jett is going to be a very good player in the NBA. In 2 years when Franz is 25 lbs heavier and Paolo is 30 lbs heavier, we may be looking at 3, 4 and 5.

That is another thing the Magic are considering is if Paolo starts to grow out of being a 4 and Franz growing out of a 3.

Lively was probably the best HS player in the nation coming out of high school. Duke did him no favors, worse that what Duke did for Paolo. Yes, Paolo was the number 1 pick, but he was a lot better player than he showed at Duke.