The Guards

[jezzerinho]

Fultz and Harris need to move on ASAP.

Anthony and Black fight out the PG spot, but also share the floor in staggered lineups. If an upgrade vet PG is signed, Cole may need to be moved, but I'm not sure that will happen due to the drafting of Black and the absence of vet options beyond FVV, who will be hotly pursued by many. Maybe Quickley.

Suggs starts at SG/combo, with Howard as backup, unless an upgrade SG is signed. Reaves would be the obvious choice, if they can pull him from LA.

[eyriq]

Problem with Fultz is not that he will derail Black improvement but that he will get paid based on team success not his own ability.

This is exactly what I expect.

I think the Magic will have a winning record next season. I think they’ll at least make the play in and possibly the playoffs.

I just cannot envision a situation where they don’t try and “build” on that progress by signing their starting point guard to a new contract.

It’s easy to say something like “oh well if Fultz doesn’t progress, then just don’t re-sign him” when that just isn’t as realistic of an option as it appears.

If the Magic are not willing to take a step back this season, and as of right now there’s no indication they are, then they’re certainly not going to be willing to take a step back in 24-25 coming off of successful 23-24 season, ya know?

Weltman interview before the draft. He said the are keying on "giving each player a pathway to success and to growing to his potential here".
What i can add about Fultz is that this year we would have to trade him or unguarantee his contract while next year they just could tell they didnt agree about the contract. Much easier.
For what its worth i think Weltman is not that high on Fultz and draft just showed that. You look at acts.

Extending Fultz would be the biggest curve ball right now. It would break my mind I think.

[pepe1991]

Why are you trolling Knightro? He consistently provides the logic behind his arguments and never makes it personal.

No worries. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and it's all good

Not everyone, some of them go on reddit to get one

[mattdelray1220]

This is exactly what I expect.

I think the Magic will have a winning record next season. I think they’ll at least make the play in and possibly the playoffs.

I just cannot envision a situation where they don’t try and “build” on that progress by signing their starting point guard to a new contract.

It’s easy to say something like “oh well if Fultz doesn’t progress, then just don’t re-sign him” when that just isn’t as realistic of an option as it appears.

If the Magic are not willing to take a step back this season, and as of right now there’s no indication they are, then they’re certainly not going to be willing to take a step back in 24-25 coming off of successful 23-24 season, ya know?

Weltman interview before the draft. He said the are keying on "giving each player a pathway to success and to growing to his potential here".
What i can add about Fultz is that this year we would have to trade him or unguarantee his contract while next year they just could tell they didnt agree about the contract. Much easier.
For what its worth i think Weltman is not that high on Fultz and draft just showed that. You look at acts.

Extending Fultz would be the biggest curve ball right now. It would break my mind I think.

I think these moves were to see the cream rise to the top of the pot. If Fultz is the future, he will outright beat out Black for the starting role. If Suggs is as good as we think he can be, he will beat out Jett/Anthony/Harris for playing time or to start. These are competitors at the highest level. This is what drives them. Bring back Harris. Let's see what everyone is made of. Depth isnt a bad thing either. Injuries always plague us. SO EXCITED FOR THIS SEASON AND THE FUTURE!!

[eyriq]

Why are you trolling Knightro? He consistently provides the logic behind his arguments and never makes it personal.

No worries. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and it's all good

Not everyone, some of them go on reddit to get one

Speaking of Reddit posts

"Fultz, CP3, Smart or Tyus Jones?

Recently saw a discussion in r/nba about building the best team possible today out of players averaging less than 15ppg. To my surprise nobody was picking Markelle as their PG. The most common selections were Tyus Jones and Chris Paul with a few Marcus Smart selections. Is Markelle really not better than any of those 3 or am I being too much of a homer?"

[RichCollab]

No worries. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and it's all good

Not everyone, some of them go on reddit to get one

Speaking of Reddit posts

"Fultz, CP3, Smart or Tyus Jones?

Recently saw a discussion in r/nba about building the best team possible today out of players averaging less than 15ppg. To my surprise nobody was picking Markelle as their PG. The most common selections were Tyus Jones and Chris Paul with a few Marcus Smart selections. Is Markelle really not better than any of those 3 or am I being too much of a homer?"

No one watches Magic games.

[VFX]

No worries. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and it's all good

Not everyone, some of them go on reddit to get one

Speaking of Reddit posts

"Fultz, CP3, Smart or Tyus Jones?

Recently saw a discussion in r/nba about building the best team possible today out of players averaging less than 15ppg. To my surprise nobody was picking Markelle as their PG. The most common selections were Tyus Jones and Chris Paul with a few Marcus Smart selections. Is Markelle really not better than any of those 3 or am I being too much of a homer?"

Well if the goal is to build a team today the logical response would be :

Tyus > Smart > Fultz > Paul

That should be obvious. Paul is almost 40 making 30m a year you aren’t ‘building’ anything with him. Fultz is a bottom tier point guard that is only effective with the ball in his hands making too much money. Smart is a DPoY on a title contender in his prime. Tyus is entering his prime as a efficient lead guard that has been playing as a backup for a while.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

No worries. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and it's all good

Not everyone, some of them go on reddit to get one

Speaking of Reddit posts

"Fultz, CP3, Smart or Tyus Jones?

Recently saw a discussion in r/nba about building the best team possible today out of players averaging less than 15ppg. To my surprise nobody was picking Markelle as their PG. The most common selections were Tyus Jones and Chris Paul with a few Marcus Smart selections. Is Markelle really not better than any of those 3 or am I being too much of a homer?"

I'd take Tyus over Fultz any day of the week and someone I wanted us to target in FA back in 22/23. I think it's safe to say if Tyus was able to run with 1's and given the same Usage as Fultz he'd produce better numbers. Statistically, he's a better shooter can dish the ball as well and key point is usually healthy.

It's honestly scary how badly some people want to give Fultz 20-25M for 3/4 years when you look at his stats. Dude is a backup PG and definitely not someone who should be getting big $. This FO had to offer him $$ to keep him because we had an aging Jameer DJ Augustin and that's it.

You've just spent the #6 pick on a PG who to me is already better then Fultz so why would you take the ball out of his hands when you know what Fultz brings you. Black should be receiving the backup PG minutes and this Fo needs to find a way to move Cole for a wing or backup C or a future pick. Anything less is a laugh and the FO will be backing themselves into the same corner they did with Vuc/Bamba.

[Knightro]

I'd take Tre Jones (a RFA this summer) over Fultz

[Audi]

This FO had to offer him $$ to keep him because we had an aging Jameer and that's it.

You sure you mean Jameer? He was off the team for like, 6 years before Fultz came along

Anything less is a laugh and the FO will be backing themselves into the same corner they did with Vuc/Bamba.

Let's get something straight - Bamba being a bum in an elite body has nothing to do with him not getting enough minutes as a 6th pick.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

This FO had to offer him $$ to keep him because we had an aging Jameer and that's it.

You sure you mean Jameer? He was off the team for like, 6 years before Fultz came along

Anything less is a laugh and the FO will be backing themselves into the same corner they did with Vuc/Bamba.

Let's get something straight - Bamba being a bum in an elite body has nothing to do with him not getting enough minutes as a 6th pick.

DJ Augustin my bad lol.

No it’s the fact that they didn’t have a plan to move him when Vuc went off and they re signed him. It became a wasted asset and we got kick the can 2nds for him.

[Knightro]

Let's get something straight - Bamba being a bum in an elite body has nothing to do with him not getting enough minutes as a 6th pick.

Bamba being a bust isn't really the point though. Look at it more broadly than that. We're talking about the process that goes into a selection here.

Regardless of how good Bamba was or wasn't, and it was impossible to know how good or bad he was going to be long-term after a rookie season where he played like 40 games and then broke his leg, the Magic willfully chose to block Bamba for the life of his rookie contract by signing Vooch to 4/100 knowing that those two absolutely could not share the floor with each other.

If within 12 months of drafting a player 6th overall, you make the decision to actively turn that player into a 15-18 MPG backup for his entire rookie deal, then you simply made the wrong decision selecting that player. No matter how good or bad that player is.

If the Magic came into this draft with any inclination that they might be willing resign Markelle Fultz to a long-term contract after this season, then they simply should have selected someone else who isn't Anthony Black at 6. Because there's no real indication from what we've already seen for several years out of Fultz or from Black's projected strengths and weaknesses that those two will be able to share the floor effectively any time soon, if ever.

[Knightro]

Let's get something straight - Bamba being a bum in an elite body has nothing to do with him not getting enough minutes as a 6th pick.

Now if you want to argue that the Magic knew they had a bust in Bamba after his injury shortened rookie season and that's why they resigned Vooch, that's fine. That seems a bit quick to judgement to me, but let's assume that's at least a possibility.

If that is the case, then the front office still should get soundly criticized for not unloading Bamba immediately after his rookie season when he still had some trade value. Not only did they not do that, but they held onto him for his entire rookie deal *and* resigned him once before eventually dumping him for practically nothing at all.

Bad process.

[VFX]

Holy ****. The process I’ve been arguing about has come full circle.

If they do this **** with Fultz and Black Im going to flip tf out man. Lol.

[Catledge]

I'm emerging from my lurking to object to the basic planning strategy being advocated by many smart and informed people in this thread.

The argument that we should be making definitive plans based on our current expectations for Black or any #6 pick is deeply flawed IMO.

A quick google on the history of the #6 pick took me to this list:

2019 Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech – Minnesota Timberwolves
2018 Mohamed Bamba, Texas – Orlando Magic
2017 Jonathan Isaac, Florida State – Orlando Magic
2016 Buddy Hield, Oklahoma – New Orleans Pelicans
2015 Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky – Sacramento Kings
2014 Marcus Smart, Oklahoma St. – Boston Celtics
2013 Nerlens Noel, Kentucky – New Orleans Pelicans
2012 Damian Lillard, Weber State – Portland Trail Blazers
2011 Jan Vesely, Czech Republic – Washington Wizards
2010 Ekpe Udoh, Baylor – Golden State Warriors
2009 Johnny Flynn, Syracuse – Minnesota Timberwolves
2008 Danilo Gallinari, Italy – New York Knicks
2007 Yi Jianlian, China – Milwaukee Bucks
2006 Brandon Roy, Washington – Minnesota Timberwolves
2005 Martell Webster, Seattle Prep HS – Portland Trail Blazers
2004 Josh Childress, Stanford – Atlanta Hawks
2003 Chris Kaman, Central Michigan – L.A. Clippers
2002 Dajuan Wagner, Memphis – Cleveland Cavaliers
2001 Shane Battier, Duke – Memphis Grizzlies
2000 DerMarr Johnson, Cincinnati – Atlanta Hawks

Among the first 20 #6 picks of this century, about a third turned out to be not cut out for the NBA, and almost all of the ones that did stay int he league did not fill a role that was easily predicted when they were drafted. The suggestion that we should be making definitive plans -- trading established NBA players and assigning long-term starting roles -- based on such uncertain inputs seems like an obviously terrible idea.

Imagine if past similar Magic draft picks were joining this team now. How much sense would it make to get rid of WCJ for a rookie Bamba? How about taking away any current rotation player's playing time to try to develop Elfrid Payton, Jaryl Sasser, or Mario Hezonja? Knowing what we know now about those guys, what possible good could come from taking away even a marginal role player's minutes (say Cole, for instance) for one of those guys?

Say what you want about the development plans for those players, but the Paytons, Hezonjas, and Bambas of the world are just not NBA quality basketball players. Any plan made based on the expectation that they would fill a major role is obviously a deeply flawed plan.

I hope that Black and Howard fulfill their potential for us, but I certainly would not make definitive plans based on that expectation. The numbers tell us that it's more likely that they both fail than that one of the two becomes a legit starter in this league.

Any argument you have against an existing rotation player on this team can exist independently of the rookies about whom we know very little. I rate Fultz a little more than many on here and Suggs a little less, but those assessments can exist without coupling them to some long-term planning for a guy who has a decent chance of being a project or a bust (based on where he was picked, not anything specifically about Black).

[eyriq]

I'm emerging from my lurking to object to the basic planning strategy being advocated by many smart and informed people in this thread.

The argument that we should be making definitive plans based on our current expectations for Black or any #6 pick is deeply flawed IMO.

A quick google on the history of the #6 pick took me to this list:

2019 Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech – Minnesota Timberwolves
2018 Mohamed Bamba, Texas – Orlando Magic
2017 Jonathan Isaac, Florida State – Orlando Magic
2016 Buddy Hield, Oklahoma – New Orleans Pelicans
2015 Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky – Sacramento Kings
2014 Marcus Smart, Oklahoma St. – Boston Celtics
2013 Nerlens Noel, Kentucky – New Orleans Pelicans
2012 Damian Lillard, Weber State – Portland Trail Blazers
2011 Jan Vesely, Czech Republic – Washington Wizards
2010 Ekpe Udoh, Baylor – Golden State Warriors
2009 Johnny Flynn, Syracuse – Minnesota Timberwolves
2008 Danilo Gallinari, Italy – New York Knicks
2007 Yi Jianlian, China – Milwaukee Bucks
2006 Brandon Roy, Washington – Minnesota Timberwolves
2005 Martell Webster, Seattle Prep HS – Portland Trail Blazers
2004 Josh Childress, Stanford – Atlanta Hawks
2003 Chris Kaman, Central Michigan – L.A. Clippers
2002 Dajuan Wagner, Memphis – Cleveland Cavaliers
2001 Shane Battier, Duke – Memphis Grizzlies
2000 DerMarr Johnson, Cincinnati – Atlanta Hawks

Among the first 20 #6 picks of this century, about a third turned out to be not cut out for the NBA, and almost all of the ones that did stay int he league did not fill a role that was easily predicted when they were drafted. The suggestion that we should be making definitive plans -- trading established NBA players and assigning long-term starting roles -- based on such uncertain inputs seems like an obviously terrible idea.

Imagine if past similar Magic draft picks were joining this team now. How much sense would it make to get rid of WCJ for a rookie Bamba? How about taking away any current rotation player's playing time to try to develop Elfrid Payton, Jaryl Sasser, or Mario Hezonja? Knowing what we know now about those guys, what possible good could come from taking away even a marginal role player's minutes (say Cole, for instance) for one of those guys?

Say what you want about the development plans for those players, but the Paytons, Hezonjas, and Bambas of the world are just not NBA quality basketball players. Any plan made based on the expectation that they would fill a major role is obviously a deeply flawed plan.

I hope that Black and Howard fulfill their potential for us, but I certainly would not make definitive plans based on that expectation. The numbers tell us that it's more likely that they both fail than that one of the two becomes a legit starter in this league.

Any argument you have against an existing rotation player on this team can exist independently of the rookies about whom we know very little. I rate Fultz a little more than many on here and Suggs a little less, but those assessments can exist without coupling them to some long-term planning for a guy who has a decent chance of being a project or a bust (based on where he was picked, not anything specifically about Black).

Greetings!

Listing 6th picks makes sense on the surface BUT I'll argue the better perspective is to consider the lottery in its entirety. On average 7 players drafted in the lottery fall somewhere between All-NBA and quality starter. If you busted at pick six it is either because the lottery overall was watered down or you had a bad draft evaluation.

This draft is widely considered to be better than average, so there very well could be more than 7 players taken in the lottery that are at worst quality starters.

WeHam have a decent track record in drafts and I think it could be argued that they are above average at making draft picks.

Given those points I think the front office would be completely justified in clearing a path for Black.

In other words I think the odds that Black is an all-star are much higher than the odds he is a bust.

[Catledge]

Listing 6th picks makes sense on the surface BUT I'll argue the better perspective is to consider the lottery in its entirety. On average 7 players drafted in the lottery fall somewhere between All-NBA and quality starter. If you busted at pick six it is either because the lottery overall was watered down or you had a bad draft evaluation.

Taking the whole lottery allows us to ride the top-shelf that usually expires after the second or third pick. Something more reasonable might be picks 4-10 or something. I'd be curious to see how those numbers breaks down if anybody has them.

This draft is widely considered to be better than average, so there very well could be more than 7 players taken in the lottery that are at worst quality starters.

The 2014 draft was supposed to be one of those all-world drafts. The top two picks -- Wiggins and Parker -- never became the franchise player everybody thought they would be, and the fourth pick has never made an allstar team or an all-defensive team IIRC. Turned out it was just another draft.

These things are very difficult to predict.

[Optimus_Steel]

So Garry Harris is not going to be on this team at this time next year, there is even a possibility he gets traded or waived before the season. Then you have to think that one or even two of Suggs/Anthony/Fultz/Houstan will not be here in a year or two. So the concerns about log jams are not worrisome for me.

[eyriq]

Listing 6th picks makes sense on the surface BUT I'll argue the better perspective is to consider the lottery in its entirety. On average 7 players drafted in the lottery fall somewhere between All-NBA and quality starter. If you busted at pick six it is either because the lottery overall was watered down or you had a bad draft evaluation.

Taking the whole lottery allows us to ride the top-shelf that usually expires after the second or third pick. Something more reasonable might be picks 4-10 or something. I'd be curious to see how those numbers breaks down if anybody has them.

This draft is widely considered to be better than average, so there very well could be more than 7 players taken in the lottery that are at worst quality starters.

The 2014 draft was supposed to be one of those all-world drafts. The top two picks -- Wiggins and Parker -- never became the franchise player everybody thought they would be, and the fourth pick has never made an allstar team or an all-defensive team IIRC. Turned out it was just another draft.

These things are very difficult to predict.

For sure, its inherently risky business. I respect your preference to play it cautiously.

To piggy-back on that, there is still a non-zero probability that Fultz gets closer to his initial projection as a super-star PG. What that probability exactly is I can't say, I'd be surprised if it was higher than 5%, so I personally wouldn't put the outcome in any scenario planning, but its a tantalizing bonus feature for a player like Fultz. He is already a good PG and can help the team and the cherry on top is that he also has this projection out there that he could actualize. If he's going to take a jump its going to be next season. So holding on to him for one more season with that in mind could make it worth leaving the backcourt logjam unresolved. Or it could justify resolving the logjam by moving Cole instead of Fultz.

[Catledge]

Listing 6th picks makes sense on the surface BUT I'll argue the better perspective is to consider the lottery in its entirety. On average 7 players drafted in the lottery fall somewhere between All-NBA and quality starter. If you busted at pick six it is either because the lottery overall was watered down or you had a bad draft evaluation.

Taking the whole lottery allows us to ride the top-shelf that usually expires after the second or third pick. Something more reasonable might be picks 4-10 or something. I'd be curious to see how those numbers breaks down if anybody has them.

This draft is widely considered to be better than average, so there very well could be more than 7 players taken in the lottery that are at worst quality starters.

The 2014 draft was supposed to be one of those all-world drafts. The top two picks -- Wiggins and Parker -- never became the franchise player everybody thought they would be, and the fourth pick has never made an allstar team or an all-defensive team IIRC. Turned out it was just another draft.

These things are very difficult to predict.

For sure, its inherently risky business. I respect your preference to play it cautiously.

To piggy-back on that, there is still a non-zero probability that Fultz gets closer to his initial projection as a super-star PG. What that probability exactly is I can't say, I'd be surprised if it was higher than 5%, so I personally wouldn't put the outcome in any scenario planning, but its a tantalizing bonus feature for a player like Fultz. He is already a good PG and can help the team and the cherry on top is that he also has this projection out there that he could actualize. If he's going to take a jump its going to be next season. So holding on to him for one more season with that in mind could make it worth leaving the backcourt logjam unresolved. Or it could justify resolving the logjam by moving Cole instead of Fultz.

Yep, and we will know a lot more about Black by then too.