Early discussion on the 2023 offseason

[Tha King]

why wouldn't nets future picks count? there are only 2 more owed to houston (2024, 2026) plus 2 more swaps (2025, 2027). if the nets are good and houston is bad, or if both are bad, or if both are good, we know what happens with swaps, nothing, same as the first 2 which have already come and gone. with lillard nets would have him and bridges (and probably CJ) under contract through 2027 draft. and prior to the 2027 draft they only have 1 unprotected pick available to trade (2025 suns) which is probably still going to be non-lotto so blazers may not even want it.

the best pick the nets own is probably phoenix 2027 because that is post-KD and they have no assets. all the rest are dart throws with 6 unprotected including the nets own 2028, 2029 picks.

I think 3 unprotected future picks is probably the price on lillard, plus maybe 1 other lesser pick either from the nets (philly 2027?) or a 3rd team. the 3 unprotected could be all 3 phoenix picks, or 1 phoenix, 1 dallas, 1 brooklyn.

I removed future Nets picks because it would be a terrible idea imo to trade away further future for the hopes of being a second round team.

Also, i don't think you can have a forward looking view rn on a roster built around a declining Lillard, a player that has yet to make an all star team with only a ~20 game sample as anything more than a 3&D role player, and a player that's incredibly limited offensively and has barely started in this league and think it'll be for sure good in 2027 and beyond.

how is lillard declining? he just came off one of his best years and was 3rd in the nba in scoring. with him the blazers were almost a .500 team, without him they were one of the worst teams in NBA.

he has 4 years under contract which would be his a33-36, so younger than KD when he came to nets - and not coming off an achilles. he is younger than jimmy butler, is he also declining? lillard, bridges, claxton is a top 4 team in the east and they'd still have picks, tradeable salary space, + simmons giving them a ceiling beyond that (most likely in the form of a 40m expiring trade chip this time next year).

out of all positions point guards have the longest shelf lives. cp3 was 36 when he went to phoenix and at 38 he just helped washington bring back a FRP. Mike Conley has never been nearly as talented as Lillard and he's still making an impact at age 35. Lowry either and he is on 1 leg at 37 making plays in the playoffs. Lillard right now for nets would be like a supercharged version of paul when he went to phoenix while giving the nets one of the best closers in the gam - which is exactly the thing their existing frankenstein .500 roster lacked. if the trade value is fair it's a no brainer.

the declining comment was in reference to the trajectory for Lillard heading to 2027.

You're right on players like CP3 continuing to make an impact towards the end of their careers but that's absolutely not what the Nets would need from Lillard. At his contract and what's given up, he can't be a complimentary piece like those players but close to the elite player he is.

The .500 roster lacks a lot imo not just Lillard. It was getting blown out by the tanking Magic and couldn't take a home game from the Sixers w/o Embiid. Compare rosters with the Hawks and they comfortably have more talent and they aren't even a serious playoff team. I don't think this is a roster that's a Lillard piece away from contention but if a Dame trade happens I'd love to be proven wrong

[Marvin Martian]

Lillard alone fixes the offense. It looked bad post trade because no one could hit a 3 outside of Bridges. If Cam Johnson and Dinwiddle go back to their usual 3pt%, then this is a top 10 offense in the league.

Defensively and the glass, we would be a bit small. Could use an Arron Gordon type big to plug in that hole. After that, I think we match up well with any team in the East

[Tha King]

Hawks just traded Collins. The Poole and Collins trades are good reference points on possible impacts of the new CBA and how to think about Cam Johnson and Dame as well.

Collins is a younger, more talented player than CJ and has largely been much better in most years yet the Hawks have been struggling to trade him. His contract:

2023: $25m; 2024: $27m; 2025: $27m

Dame
2024: $49m; 2025: $59m; 2026: $63m

You have to look at that contract similarly to Beal. He's far better but if you're planning on building a contender, a contract like that makes it very difficult. Especially when you consider it'll be at its highest when he's (presumably) on the decline

[Netaman]

Hawks just traded Collins. The Poole and Collins trades are good reference points on possible impacts of the new CBA and how to think about Cam Johnson and Dame as well.

Collins is a younger, more talented player than CJ and has largely been much better in most years yet the Hawks have been struggling to trade him. His contract:

2023: $25m; 2024: $27m; 2025: $27m

Dame
2024: $49m; 2025: $59m; 2026: $63m

You have to look at that contract similarly to Beal. He's far better but if you're planning on building a contender, a contract like that makes it very difficult. Especially when you consider it'll be at its highest when he's (presumably) on the decline

you are correct with what you are taking from the collins trade (and poole) - giving CJ a deal too big would be a mistake. going beyond 4x84m would be bad enough, they cannot make him the next herro (who has to be viewed as a neutral asset at best now, and probably negative).

you are incorrect re Dame. He is not Beal. Beal has only 1 time taken the Wizards to the postseason as it's most valuable player. that is in 11 years. he has been in the postseason just 5/11, and just once in the last 5 which is basically the "post-wall era". he has never made an all nba team.

Lillard has made 9 all nba teams and led the blazers to the playoffs in 8 of the last 10 years, leading them in win shares each of those 8 years plus 1 more, so 9 out of 10 years. He is coming off a 3rd team all nba year. If you are trading for him it's with the expectation of him continuing at that level for 2-3-4 more years just as other great point guards have. Nash is probably the most recent similar player and he made his last all nba team as a 34 year old and led the nba in assists through his age 36 continuing to get all nba votes and make all star games.

as long as he stays healthy Lillard is a likely all star in 2 or 3 of the next 4 years, probably also making 1 or 2 all nba teams. beal is joe johnson. lillard is getting a player much closer to CP3/Nash. cp3 made all nba in phoenix at age 36 2 seasons ago and led the nba in assists even though athletically he's nowhere near what he used to be.

[Netaman]

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[Netaman]

here's a helpful primer on spending. with houston supposedly still in on harden and focused on bigger names, not too worried about them for Cam j. Pistons/Monty are the main concern. They can be aggressive, but if the nets are willing to go to 100m they dont have a ton of extra room so hopefully if that's the way things go there's at least a S&T for nets.

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[vincecarter4pres]

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And so it begins.

[Netaman]

so here's a crazy one inspired by someone else's idea on the T&T board. note, Miami would be sending 1 extra first to Portland here so they get 4 FRP's total.

the only way this happens is if CLE is willing to move off Mitchell at a slight discount from what they paid for him. They get 2 FRP's instead of 3, and they get Herro/DFS/Martin instead of Lauri/Sexton. Fit wise CLE needs shooting desperately, so that actually kind of works and they get 2 unprotected firsts from Phoenix.

Nets get a guy who fits the age of this group better than lillard for 3 FRPs + DFS + expirings and miami gets dame.



so better than lillard? or just cut out the other 2 east teams and just go straight to portland?

[TheNetsFan]

so here's a crazy one inspired by someone else's idea on the T&T board. note, Miami would be sending 1 extra first to Portland here so they get 4 FRP's total.

the only way this happens is if CLE is willing to move off Mitchell at a slight discount from what they paid for him. They get 2 FRP's instead of 3, and they get Herro/DFS/Martin instead of Lauri/Sexton. Fit wise CLE needs shooting desperately, so that actually kind of works and they get 2 unprotected firsts from Phoenix.

Nets get a guy who fits the age of this group better than lillard for 3 FRPs + DFS + expirings and miami gets dame.



so better than lillard? or just cut out the other 2 east teams and just go straight to portland?

That was me, and I doubt Cleveland is ready to move off of Mitchell yet. That being said, I would have the Nets giving 3 picks (not necessarily all of the highest potential ones) to CLE & MIA giving 3 picks to Portland. I also tried minimizing the number of players moving, so I had Lowry to Portland & Harris to Miami (no Oladipo, Mills, Martin or Okoro), though that doesn't have to be the case. It was fueled by a Cleveland fan's willingness to offer some scraps for Herro, who doesn't fit with Portland, but to me also does not fit with Garland+Mitchell simultaneously.

[Tha King]

So Mitchell is definitely more interesting than Lillard. He'll be an UFA in a couple years but you have to like the chances of keeping him and I doubt the Knicks could create the cap space.

Initial thought is the Cavs wouldn't be interested but Herro and two 3&D wings kinda balances out their team better and they get some picks back that could actually be an improvement over what they gave up. If they are unsure about Mitchell this might be something they consider.

[Netaman]

So Mitchell is definitely more interesting than Lillard. He'll be an UFA in a couple years but you have to like the chances of keeping him and I doubt the Knicks could create the cap space.

Initial thought is the Cavs wouldn't be interested but Herro and two 3&D wings kinda balances out their team better and they get some picks back that could actually be an improvement over what they gave up. If they are unsure about Mitchell this might be something they consider.

right with mobley and allen in the front court they are actually a reasonably good destination for herro. him and garland in the backcourt, plus 2 playoff tested 3&d wings who can rotate in front court, gives them an outside dynamic they don't really have. it fits everyone in their roles better since mitchell/garland didn't mesh great since they are both better ball dominant. and they get the pick equity back they gave up.

i dont expect it to happen but herro is a good fit there and there's some logic to it.

more likely i still think nets end up with lillard. miami beats seem to be getting less confident. who knows how much more time he's willing to give portland but you would think rubber is meeting road soon with the decision on grant coming up. that will be a deal they regret i think if they end up trading dame.

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[vincecarter4pres]

So Mitchell is definitely more interesting than Lillard. He'll be an UFA in a couple years but you have to like the chances of keeping him and I doubt the Knicks could create the cap space.

Initial thought is the Cavs wouldn't be interested but Herro and two 3&D wings kinda balances out their team better and they get some picks back that could actually be an improvement over what they gave up. If they are unsure about Mitchell this might be something they consider.

right with mobley and allen in the front court they are actually a reasonably good destination for herro. him and garland in the backcourt, plus 2 playoff tested 3&d wings who can rotate in front court, gives them an outside dynamic they don't really have. it fits everyone in their roles better since mitchell/garland didn't mesh great since they are both better ball dominant. and they get the pick equity back they gave up.

i dont expect it to happen but herro is a good fit there and there's some logic to it.

more likely i still think nets end up with lillard. miami beats seem to be getting less confident. who knows how much more time he's willing to give portland but you would think rubber is meeting road soon with the decision on grant coming up. that will be a deal they regret i think if they end up trading dame.

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Yeah man, I think you’re going to see a deal agreed to in principle ahead of the July 9th date, because I agree, they’re not likely to want to keep Grant on a fat re-sign with no Lillard.

[vincecarter4pres]

So Mitchell is definitely more interesting than Lillard. He'll be an UFA in a couple years but you have to like the chances of keeping him and I doubt the Knicks could create the cap space.

Initial thought is the Cavs wouldn't be interested but Herro and two 3&D wings kinda balances out their team better and they get some picks back that could actually be an improvement over what they gave up. If they are unsure about Mitchell this might be something they consider.

Mitchell is a guy they should save the assets for and let Miami walk with Lillard. At the same time, just don’t see them dealing Mitchell already even if maybe they should.

[Netaman]

here's an article from barry jackson - lillard or not they are in rough spot cap wise (emphasis added by me).

▪ With the current roster construction, how much would it cost to keep Vincent?

ESPN analyst and former Nets executive Bobby Marks said he expects Vincent to command around $12 million annually. If the Heat maintained its current payroll, re-signed Vincent to that amount and filled the other five roster spots with a mix of veterans and undrafted rookies at the league minimum, Miami’s payroll would be about $200 million, with a tax of about $108 million. For perspective, the Heat has paid $53 million in taxes combined over its history.

▪ With the current roster construction, how much would it cost to keep Vincent and Strus?

Giving $10 million or so to Strus — in addition to signing Vincent at $12 million — would push the payroll to about $208 million, with a tax of about $140 million. That’s not realistic. By contrast, if the Heat kept its current nine players and surrounded those players with minimum salaries, Miami’s payroll would be about $182 million (just below the second apron) if Miami signed mostly rookies or as high as $188 million if Miami signed older players. That would result in a tax bill between $35 million and $56 million. So between tax and salary, signing Vincent or Strus would cost more than $50 million.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article275724816.html#storylink=cpy

[Netaman]

on cue mitchell at mets game tonight.

[Netaman]

jake fisher has nets interested in kj martin since deadline. wonder if that's a possible swap for cam thomas?

[Netaman]

man this seems to put portland in a really tricky spot. grant's agent must be grinning ear to ear because they basically have to bring him back at almost any price now right?

then try to pull of some kind of s&t for draymond and whoever else lillard has told them he wants to play with? I assume they are going to have to dangle a bunch of picks to find some way for that to be tempting and salary match by offloading simons? or go back to the OG well?

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i assume nets just wait this out and try to get cam johnson resolved, but if FVV is a possibility via S&T i dont think i'd pass on that waiting. I'd just move forward. they have enough different salaries on the books they'd probably still have a lillard package if he hits the market later down the road (dinwiddie+royce+picks?).

[TheNetsFan]

man this seems to put portland in a really tricky spot. grant's agent must be grinning ear to ear because they basically have to bring him back at almost any price now right?

then try to pull of some kind of s&t for draymond and whoever else lillard has told them he wants to play with? I assume they are going to have to dangle a bunch of picks to find some way for that to be tempting and salary match by offloading simons? or go back to the OG well?

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i assume nets just wait this out and try to get cam johnson resolved, but if FVV is a possibility via S&T i dont think i'd pass on that waiting. I'd just move forward. they have enough different salaries on the books they'd probably still have a lillard package if he hits the market later down the road (dinwiddie+royce+picks?).

Lillard doesn't want to move. I get it. He's been in Portland forever, and relocating is not easy. It's clear Portland is playing the long game, but they refuse to look like the bad guy. Grant is the interesting puzzle piece, because they cannot let him walk & continue to try to spin the we're trying to build a competitor around Dame narrative.

The problem is, in doing so, Dame also holds teams interested in trading for him hostage a bit. Miami can't really move Lowry if they think they need his expiring for Dame. We likely will not use the MLE unless we trade for Dame. By the time we have that clarity, there may be nobody worth using the MLE on left.

[Eatgreenz]

Hmmm Interesting

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?

[Netaman]

Hmmm Interesting

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?

seems unlikely but the nets match up. they can give cleveland the same 3 FRPs they got from Utah the some combo of dinwiddie/dfs/royce/harris maybe with cam thomas. cleveland needs more outside shooting and garland/mitchell didnt fit well together.