How much would you pay Kuzma?

[AFM]

half this board is gonna have a meltdown

[FAH1223]

Kyle Kuzma is searching for well above the mid-level exception, sources said, and it’s unclear where the scoring forward can command that type of money if Houston and Indiana use their cap space elsewhere. Utah was supposed to be a real landing spot for Kuzma before the Jazz acquired John Collins from the Atlanta Hawks, which has led league figures to pinpoint Kuzma re-signing with the Wizards after rumblings about interest from Sacramento. - Jake Fisher

https://sports.yahoo.com/2023-nba-free-agency-should-we-be-preparing-for-james-harden-to-end-up-with-the-clippers-171832820.html

[nate33]

The over-the-cap teams can offer, at best, $12.2M plus 5% raises. So, over 4 years, that looks like this:

$12.2M
$12.8M
$13.4M
$14.0M
Total: $52.5M

That's the floor. He certainly wouldn't take less than that from us, and we would probably need to beat the deal but a not insignificant number. I propose we offer him a 4-year deal starting at $17.0M with the maximum 8% reductions, so it would look like this:

$17.0M
$15.6M
$14.3M
$12.9M
Total $59.8M

That's almost $2M a year more than anyone else, but it makes the deal VERY favorable a year or two down the road when we would be looking to trade him for a future pick.

EDIT: all that said, I really would like to see Avdija force fed the starting minutes at PF for an entire season and see how he can develop without someone looking over his shoulder. So if we decide not to offer Kuzma anything, I'm okay with it.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

The over-the-cap teams can offer, at best, $12.2M plus 5% raises. So, over 4 years, that looks like this:

$12.2M
$12.8M
$13.4M
$14.0M
Total: $52.5M

That's the floor. He certainly wouldn't take less than that from us, and we would probably need to beat the deal but a not insignificant number. I propose we offer him a 4-year deal starting at $17.0M with the maximum 8% reductions, so it would look like this:

$17.0M
$15.6M
$14.3M
$12.9M
Total $59.8M

That's almost $2M a year more than anyone else, but it makes the deal VERY favorable a year or two down the road when we would be looking to trade him for a future pick.

EDIT: all that said, I really would like to see Avdija force fed the starting minutes at PF for an entire season and see how he can develop without someone looking over his shoulder. So if we decide not to offer Kuzma anything, I'm okay with it.

That's my only hang-up with Kuzma on a team friendly deal, that Deni would still have older brother in the room.

[nate33]

The Pistons just traded cap space for Joe Harris and two 2nds. There goes another suitor for Kuzma. That really only leaves the Rockets, Spurs and Pacers.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

The Pistons just traded cap space for Joe Harris and two 2nds. There goes another suitor for Kuzma. That really only leaves the Rockets, Spurs and Pacers.

Damn, Kuzma got got. Can't imagine any of those destination other than HOU would be an attractive market to him given his interests. And Houston is a lot different than the coastal franchises of either east or west coast.

[nate33]

After watching the behavior of teams in the past couple of days, I'm now firmly in the camp of just letting Kuzma walk no matter how cheap he gets. It's nothing against Kuzma. It's just that it's looking like a team with cap flexibility is going to have massive leverage around the Trade Deadline. Down the road, I think we will get more in return by buying off a bad contract than we will in trading an under-contract Kuzma.

[joshuacf]

What possible reason could we have for resigning Kuzma? I'm legitimately curious to know what the FO is thinking with this one.

[Endless Loop]

One would expect that the buyer's market would be next offseason. But maybe it'll be this one also, because teams are trying to get out ahead of what for many would be a really painful offseason next year.

If you can sign good player for less than market value in 2023, and you know that the cap will take a huge jump in two years, then you should do it. That player will be a very valuable asset when the market turns.

In the end, if your players outperform their salaries, you'll be successful. This is especially true under the new CBA where there will be more total salary parity. Wiz should be opportunistic.

[payitforward]

I really don't understand the Kuzma hatred around here. The guy is a solid NBA player.

If the market on him has cooled enough so that he costs just over MLE money, I'd pay to keep him. Sign him to a flat or declining deal if possible.

Remember, there's no advantage to being the worst team in the league. Being the 4th worst gets you the same lotto odds but with less psychological damage from the endless losing.

Kuz was "solid" in '20-21, his last year with the Lakers, & in '21-22, his first year with us. Nothing special, but at least average, in fact somewhat better than average, if you thought of him as a 3, & by no means disastrously bad even thought of as a 4 (b/c 4s put up better raw numbers per 40 minutes than 3s).

But this last season he was really pretty awful:

His rebounds went down by 20%.
His turnovers, blocks, fouls, & steals all got worse.
He took 20% more shots per 40 minutes, & his TS% -- which was always below average -- went down.

Obviously, TS% going down is always a bad thing. But, when

1. it's below average to begin with, &
2. you also add 20% more shots,
3. turn the ball over more,
4. manage slightly fewer steals,
5. & get fewer rebounds

...your potential to have an overall positive effect on the game plummets, pure & simple. Even if we agree that numbers don't tell the whole story in a simple way.

All the same, nate, I'm not subject to any Kuzma "hatred" -- in fact, I'm starting to be upset for the kid! Which is what he is in my mind.

In the end, Kuz will be on a team -- he's an NBA player. But there must be heavy weather in his head right now!

As to any future as a Wizard, it's hard for me to believe that Winger & Dawkins (having just arrived & obviously having a pretty clear plan in process) will be the ones to bail him out with an offer. Who is he to them?

Obviously, I hope the Rockets sign him & that there's some possible sign and trade deal for one of their young guys & a pick. But... it's looking kinda tough right now!

[payitforward]

After watching the behavior of teams in the past couple of days, I'm now firmly in the camp of just letting Kuzma walk no matter how cheap he gets. It's nothing against Kuzma. It's just that it's looking like a team with cap flexibility is going to have massive leverage around the Trade Deadline. Down the road, I think we will get more in return by buying off a bad contract than we will in trading an under-contract Kuzma.

Aaaah, a change since the post to which I just replied.

I agree. He just makes no sense for the Wizards now.

Someone will sign him, but man o man is he going to have to eat crow! He must be regretting that "I'm going to get a bag" exchange with Spence!

[tleikheen]

Lets say 25 Million a yr for 4 yrs

[AFM]

In the end, Kuz will be on a team -- he's an NBA player. But there must be heavy weather in his head right now!

As to any future as a Wizard, it's hard for me to believe that Winger & Dawkins (having just arrived & obviously having a pretty clear plan in process) will be the ones to bail him out with an offer. Who is he to them?

This aged well. Matter of fact I think you jinxed us!

[payitforward]

One would expect that the buyer's market would be next offseason. But maybe it'll be this one also, because teams are trying to get out ahead of what for many would be a really painful offseason next year.

If you can sign good player for less than market value in 2023, and you know that the cap will take a huge jump in two years, then you should do it. That player will be a very valuable asset when the market turns.

In the end, if your players outperform their salaries, you'll be successful. This is especially true under the new CBA where there will be more total salary parity. Wiz should be opportunistic.

Absolutely correct!
& that's always been true: "if your players outperform their salaries, you'll be successful."
How could it not be true?

The Kyle Kuzma of two years ago & three years ago would be a bargain at the low $$ it now looks likely he'll get. But, I think there's more likelihood he returns to being that kind of player with another team.

&, he doesn't fit our timeline one bit. So, your key point about value wouldn't matter to the Wizards, I don't think.

[NatP4]

In the end, Kuz will be on a team -- he's an NBA player. But there must be heavy weather in his head right now!

As to any future as a Wizard, it's hard for me to believe that Winger & Dawkins (having just arrived & obviously having a pretty clear plan in process) will be the ones to bail him out with an offer. Who is he to them?

This aged well. Matter of fact I think you jinxed us!

[gesa2]

Lets say 25 Million a yr for 4 yrs

Nailed it tleikheen

[doclinkin]

What possible reason could we have for resigning Kuzma? I'm legitimately curious to know what the FO is thinking with this one.

Empty stats help you lose games while looking fun to watch?

[joshuacf]

What possible reason could we have for resigning Kuzma? I'm legitimately curious to know what the FO is thinking with this one.

Empty stats help you lose games while looking fun to watch?

I don't think Kuzma starting is going to lose us more games than Deni starting.

[doclinkin]

What possible reason could we have for resigning Kuzma? I'm legitimately curious to know what the FO is thinking with this one.

Empty stats help you lose games while looking fun to watch?

I don't think Kuzma starting is going to lose us more games than Deni starting.

Advanced stats disagree with you. Kuzma has generally been a net negative to whatever squad he plays with. Until Deni's defense fell off in the 2nd half of the year, his on/off numbers beat Kuzma.

That said, fans cheer louder for the streaky scoring and late game theatrics than for solid positional defense. There was interest in Kuz at the trade deadline, if the is under team control then he is a tradable asset. I don't like the number so much, but there may be team options built in. Anyway we are still over the roster limit, you have to figure there are more moves coming.

[joshuacf]

Empty stats help you lose games while looking fun to watch?

I don't think Kuzma starting is going to lose us more games than Deni starting.

Advanced stats disagree with you. Kuzma has generally been a net negative to whatever squad he plays with. Until Deni's defense fell off in the 2nd half of the year, his on/off numbers beat Kuzma.

That said, fans cheer louder for the streaky scoring and late game theatrics than for solid positional defense. There was interest in Kuz at the trade deadline, if the is under team control then he is a tradable asset. I don't like the number so much, but there may be team options built in. Anyway we are still over the roster limit, you have to figure there are more moves coming.

Which advanced stats?

RPM had Kuzma at 4.46 last season (31st in the league). Deni was at -1.86 RPM (240th in the league).

RAPTOR had Kuzma at -0.5 total and Deni at -1.0.

Kuzma had a TS% of 54.4 last season on more than double the volume of Deni. Deni had a TS% of 53.5.

Kuzma had a lower turnover %, 13.2 to 15.9.

Kuzma had a higher assist %, 16.5 to 13.9.

Deni had the advantage in rebounding and defensive numbers. However, Kuzma had the advantage in almost every offensive category, and overall. I think these numbers prove it.