The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

[closg00]

I have no issue with Kuz’s style game, it’s part of celebrity culture, I am more concerned with his street ball style of game.

If he was a good player, I wouldn’t care either. But he seems more interested in figuring out to get publicity than figuring out how to play smart efficient basketball.

I would have spent that FA money elsewhere, he has always been the kind of player you described, regardless of his fashion choices.

[payitforward]

So... Kuz is a Wizard. With a 4-year contract -- which, to me at least, means he'll be with us for a while. Yet, at least on the basis of the usual per 40 minute numbers, Kuz is by no means a good player. In fact, last year he was really really bad.

So, perhaps it behooves us to consider what made him bad, &, more importantly, what Kuz could do to get better.

Kuz is a combo forward, so it makes some sense to orient our understanding of him by comparing his numbers to NBA 3s & 4s both.

If you look at Kuz's defensive rebounding, assists, blocks, steals & fouls, his numbers are better overall than an average NBA 4 -- & even more better than an average 3.

OTOH, Kuz is a relatively weak offensive rebounder -- but, still, even including those numbers -- he remains more productive than an average NBA 3, & he's almost exactly at the level (on all those numbers) of an NBA 4.

So... why isn't he a good player?
Pretty simple, really -- his scoring & his turnover rate.

Let's start with the latter: on average an NBA 4 turns the ball over 2 times per 40 minutes. An NBA 3 isn't much different: 1.9 times.

Kuz turned the ball over @3.42 times per 40 minutes -- almost 1.5 more times. Based on the NBA average TS% those extra turnovers cost the team @1.6 points. That may not seem like much at first glance, but once you realize that we were only down 1.2 points per game to the league last year, its significance becomes clear.

So that's the first problem.

Kuz's scoring efficiency is the other one.

Kuz scored 5.9 more points per 40 minutes than an average NBA 4 & 6.15 more than an average NBA 3. Sounds good, right? Actually, no, it's not good. To get 5.9 more points than an average 4, Kuz to use @6.55 more possessions (FGAs + 1/2 FTAs) than an average NBA forward. IOW, on those extra points, Kuz's TS% was .454.

So, there you are: last year, for a return of 5.9 points more than average, Kuz used just over 6.5 more possessions than average (extra turnovers & shots/ftas). That's a formula that piles up losses.

To become a good player, he needs to change that. Above all, he needs to shoot less. A lot less. At least 25% - 30% fewer shots than last year.

The problem is that he's far more likely to take way more shots than to take any fewer!

Then again... we're tanking. So it's all good!

[DCZards]

Is it that he is an inefficient and irredeemable player, or that he’s playing for a poorly-constructed team and has to do too much? (Or feels he has to do, or is told he has to do.)

That is indeed the question.

Reigning Kuz in and demanding that he cutdown on ill-advised shots and careless turnovers is on Wes. I’m also hoping that Jones’ presence will change the way the Zards play and tamp down the recklessness of both Kuz & Poole.

Kuz is a talented player, but he has to learn to play smarter.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see if that happens.

[DCZards]

I find this analysis a little strange coming from you PIF given how you typically downplay/dismiss scoring and prioritize things like rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and fouls…areas where Kuz is quite good as you point out.

Yet you label him a “bad player.” What gives? Is scoring the only thing that matters when it comes to Kuz?

Agree with your conclusion though that Kuz needs to shoot less…and more efficiently.

As for turnovers, Kuz’s high #s come as no surprise given that he’s called upon to handle the ball more than most forwards…although that’s not always a good thing.

[doclinkin]

So, perhaps it behooves us to consider what made him bad, &, more importantly, what Kuz could do to get better.

Kuz is a combo forward, so it makes some sense to orient our understanding of him by comparing his numbers to NBA 3s & 4s both.

If you look at Kuz's defensive rebounding, assists, blocks, steals & fouls, his numbers are better overall than an average NBA 4 -- & even more better than an average 3.

OTOH, Kuz is a relatively weak offensive rebounder -- but, still, even including those numbers -- he remains more productive than an average NBA 3, & he's almost exactly at the level (on all those numbers) of an NBA 4.

So... why isn't he a good player?
Pretty simple, really -- his scoring
...

I took a deep look at Kuzma's game logs and figured out what the problem is. It lies in his irrational confidence. Or his belief in his own skill.

I have said for a while Kuzma's problem is his variance in efficiency. He is streaky. Statisticians will argue over whether the "hot hand" exists. I think the current state of the argument is to suggest that all players have a variability figure, some are more consistent than others. Some like Klay Thompson and James Harden are inconsistent and still efficient due to their ability to get insanely hot. Others like Curry or JJ Reddick are consistent and efficient, little variation in their numbers. But most simply are what they are. Mediocre all the time.

Statistically through 2021 numbers in one study suggested that Kuzma has been consistent and mediocre. Though that didn't jibe with reality. Few players are consistently meh but still post multiple 30 and 40 point games a year with incandescent heat. In those games, when he is on, Kuzma scores with notable efficiency. The issue with Kuz is,his streakiness doesn't last in multi game runs, then a string of down games, but in wild swings from night to night.

The problem that I have noticed is that in counterbalance to his high scoring games, when Kuzma is shooting poorly he shoots MORE, not less. Especially from 3. As if by gunning through it he will suddenly crack the ice and kindle a hot streak. It doesn't happen. If you look at his worst shooting games from outside, he commonly puts up double digit 3pt attempts. He hasn't learned the habits of the best players who understand that some nights your shot isn't falling and you need to do all the other things.

Not Kuzma. He doubles down on bad. As if the next one will be the one that jumpstarts his game. The problem is that the law of averages does catch up with him and reassures him that hero ball works. That is it has been a common pattern that he shoots us out of games early, but then hits 'clutch' shots late, especially in tight games that would not have been tight if he wasn't trying to force the issue early. The brain doesn't remember the misses, it gets the dopamine rush for the late game late clock swish and crowd reaction.

Kuzma needs a vet. Or a coach with a firm hand. Or a true PG who can read who has the hot hand, and feed him on those nights when he is bringing a flamethrower, but kick it to the next guy on nights when he is not the hero he thinks he is. I have hope for Tyus in this regard, because otherwise we don't have a vet who can show him by example. And our coach has been willing to give him free reign.

(Well we have one vet who knows how it is done. Maybe We retain Gallinari, he regains his form, and Kuz learns from his example. Because Gallo knows the issue well. Late in his career a previously streaky Danilo became one of the players who matched efficiency with consistency. Before that he was likely to jack heat checks early and often).

Mostly I think it works best if we take the decision-making out of the hands of Kuzma, let the PG only get him the ball when he has the match-up, instead of giving him the ball to initiate possessions as a point forward. He can be too quick for slow 4's, too tall for smaller 3's. In those cases hit him with the ball at the right time and let him get hot. Otherwise, let Tyus run the show. And don't let Kuz keep shooting when he has proven cold that day.

Because otherwise we are going to have games where both Kuz and Poole try to out-hero each other and shoot us out of the game early.

[FAH1223]

Is it that he is an inefficient and irredeemable player, or that he’s playing for a poorly-constructed team and has to do too much? (Or feels he has to do, or is told he has to do.)

That is indeed the question.

Reigning Kuz in and demanding that he cutdown on ill-advised shots and careless turnovers is on Wes. I’m also hoping that Jones’ presence will change the way the Zards play and tamp down the recklessness of both Kuz & Poole.

Kuz is a talented player, but he has to learn to play smarter.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see if that happens.

Kuz was inefficient playing with two HOFers.

This is who he is.

[gambitx777]

https://www.youtube.com/live/BtaSP42tqMk?feature=share

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Frichuela]

So, perhaps it behooves us to consider what made him bad, &, more importantly, what Kuz could do to get better.

Kuz is a combo forward, so it makes some sense to orient our understanding of him by comparing his numbers to NBA 3s & 4s both.

If you look at Kuz's defensive rebounding, assists, blocks, steals & fouls, his numbers are better overall than an average NBA 4 -- & even more better than an average 3.

OTOH, Kuz is a relatively weak offensive rebounder -- but, still, even including those numbers -- he remains more productive than an average NBA 3, & he's almost exactly at the level (on all those numbers) of an NBA 4.

So... why isn't he a good player?
Pretty simple, really -- his scoring
...

I took a deep look at Kuzma's game logs and figured out what the problem is. It lies in his irrational confidence. Or his belief in his own skill.

I have said for a while Kuzma's problem is his variance in efficiency. He is streaky. Statisticians will argue over whether the "hot hand" exists. I think the current state of the argument is to suggest that all players have a variability figure, some are more consistent than others. Some like Klay Thompson and James Harden are inconsistent and still efficient due to their ability to get insanely hot. Others like Curry or JJ Reddick are consistent and efficient, little variation in their numbers. But most simply are what they are. Mediocre all the time.

Statistically through 2021 numbers in one study suggested that Kuzma has been consistent and mediocre. Though that didn't jibe with reality. Few players are consistently meh but still post multiple 30 and 40 point games a year with incandescent heat. In those games, when he is on, Kuzma scores with notable efficiency. The issue with Kuz is,his streakiness doesn't last in multi game runs, then a string of down games, but in wild swings from night to night.

The problem that I have noticed is that in counterbalance to his high scoring games, when Kuzma is shooting poorly he shoots MORE, not less. Especially from 3. As if by gunning through it he will suddenly crack the ice and kindle a hot streak. It doesn't happen. If you look at his worst shooting games from outside, he commonly puts up double digit 3pt attempts. He hasn't learned the habits of the best players who understand that some nights your shot isn't falling and you need to do all the other things.

Not Kuzma. He doubles down on bad. As if the next one will be the one that jumpstarts his game. The problem is that the law of averages does catch up with him and reassures him that hero ball works. That is it has been a common pattern that he shoots us out of games early, but then hits 'clutch' shots late, especially in tight games that would not have been tight if he wasn't trying to force the issue early. The brain doesn't remember the misses, it gets the dopamine rush for the late game late clock swish and crowd reaction.

Kuzma needs a vet. Or a coach with a firm hand. Or a true PG who can read who has the hot hand, and feed him on those nights when he is bringing a flamethrower, but kick it to the next guy on nights when he is not the hero he thinks he is. I have hope for Tyus in this regard, because otherwise we don't have a vet who can show him by example. And our coach has been willing to give him free reign.

(Well we have one vet who knows how it is done. Maybe We retain Gallinari, he regains his form, and Kuz learns from his example. Because Gallo knows the issue well. Late in his career a previously streaky Danilo became one of the players who matched efficiency with consistency. Before that he was likely to jack heat checks early and often).

Mostly I think it works best if we take the decision-making out of the hands of Kuzma, let the PG only get him the ball when he has the match-up, instead of giving him the ball to initiate possessions as a point forward. He can be too quick for slow 4's, too tall for smaller 3's. In those cases hit him with the ball at the right time and let him get hot. Otherwise, let Tyus run the show. And don't let Kuz keep shooting when he has proven cold that day.

Because otherwise we are going to have games where both Kuz and Poole try to out-hero each other and shoot us out of the game early.

This. 100%. As you said, the hope is that Tyus Jones can take command. Deni should be also having the ball more often than Kuzma, as he is a better decision maker. The problem is Wes allowed Kuz to do whatever he pleased last year. We will see…

[willbcocks]

So the vet we resigned to steady the ship at the beginning of a long rebuild needs a vet to help him? Dude is 27 and has 6 years in the league. He is what he is until he starts to decline from age, and then he'll be less than what he is.

[DCZards]

Yup…can’t be said enough how important it is to cutdown on Kuz’s usage and put the ball in the hands of a playmaker like Jones. Kuz is a talented player. He can pass, rebound, and score in a variety of ways. He’s also a decent and willing defender.

But his decision making, especially his shot selection, is often a serious drag on the team’s success. That needs to change. It’s on Wes, and to some extent, Jones, to make sure that happens…and it can.

[pcbothwel]

The intriguing thing about Kuz is that he shows a wide array of skills, but he doesn't do enough of them above average to be a really good player. He shows playmaking chops, can get his own shot, rebounds, defends, etc... He is a poor mans Siakam.
On the bright side, a slight uptick in efficiency along with a better AST:TOV ratio turns him from a negative player into a borderline AS.
I.E. TS from 54/55 to 56/57 and cutting out 1 Turnover/game makes him a bargain on this contract.

Hopefully he puts together a hot 1st half either this year or next and we move him for filler +6 pick

[nate33]

If look at just the second half of 2021-22 (after Beal went down), and also ignore the final 14 games this season when he was playing hurt (judging by the multiple games missed during that stretch), Kuzma has averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4 assists per 36, with 3 turnovers on a TS% of .560. while being an above-average defender at multiple positions. For most of the time, he was either the #1 or #2 focus of the opposition's defense.

I continue to be baffled at how so many of this board think this is awful production. The guy is a good player. He may think he is better than he is, but he is still quite good.

[NatP4]

If look at just the second half of 2021-22 (after Beal went down), and also ignore the final 14 games this season when he was playing hurt (judging by the multiple games missed during that stretch), Kuzma has averaged 22 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4 assists per 36, with 3 turnovers on a TS% of .560. while being an above-average defender at multiple positions. For most of the time, he was either the #1 or #2 focus of the opposition's defense.

I continue to be baffled at how so many of this board think this is awful production. The guy is a good player. He may think he is better than he is, but he is still quite good.

I don't think anyone thinks that is awful production. Rather, no-one is focusing on a 20 game sample from 2 years ago, and ignoring the other 380+ games he has played in.

RPM, EPM, Raptor and his On/Off differential all indicate that he was pretty good last year though. Maybe throw him in the 60th-70th best player in the league range. Fine as a 3rd-4th option on a playoff team, average starter, solid rotation player.

I've somewhat come around on the signing. 25/per is not all that bad, he at-least plays hard and is seemingly liked by his teammates, and brings some relevancy to the Wizards organization. We can expect him to put 22-8-4 type numbers and be a trade-able asset in a couple of years.

For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.

[pcbothwel]

For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.

This is something I think is really important. Professional sports have gotten so micromanaged due to the immense amount of money and analytics, that sometimes young athletes have trouble knowing their "role".
What I love about Kuz is that he seems to just "Ball" and take what he sees. Open court in transition, he takes it to the basket. Open 3, shoot it. Mismatch with smaller player, play bully ball.
Some guys are so caught up with their role/directive, that they forget to stay in the moment and take what is in front of them. Guys like Deni and Bilal will do well with Kuz.
Again, this doesnt always result in success, but I like the mentality and Deni seemed to take to it pretty well at the end of last year.

[nate33]

I don't think anyone thinks that is awful production. Rather, no-one is focusing on a 20 game sample from 2 years ago, and ignoring the other 380+ games he has played in.

Sorry. My post wasn't clear. I was talking about the 2nd half of last season (about 40 games) plus most of this season (the first 50 games)

[joshuacf]

The problem with signing Kuzma for me isn't his skill level. It's resource allocation. Bilal, Deni, and JD are all guys I wanted to see get big minutes this season. Kuzma probably siphons 10 MPG from each of them.

Tyus, Poole, and Kuzma probably take up at least 100 minutes between the three of them. Some combination of Gafford, Muscala, and Huff take up another 40. That leaves us with 100 minutes to go around for Bilal, JD, Deni, Kispert, Delon, Rollins, PBJ, and Shamet.

I wanted to see Deni playing 30 minutes a game, JD playing 25, and Bilal playing 20. Not going to happen with Kuzma back.

[NatP4]

For all his flaws, he's not really a ball stopper on offense, Beal was that guy. Kuzma tries to make the right play and encourages the other young players to be confident.

This is something I think is really important. Professional sports have gotten so micromanaged due to the immense amount of money and analytics, that sometimes young athletes have trouble knowing their "role".
What I love about Kuz is that he seems to just "Ball" and take what he sees. Open court in transition, he takes it to the basket. Open 3, shoot it. Mismatch with smaller player, play bully ball.
Some guys are so caught up with their role/directive, that they forget to stay in the moment and take what is in front of them. Guys like Deni and Bilal will do well with Kuz.
Again, this doesnt always result in success, but I like the mentality and Deni seemed to take to it pretty well at the end of last year.

You always put it into words far better than I can, but fully agree. Kuzma just plays, and Poole is similar in that regard. Never has struck me as a selfish player with an inflated ego.

We saw Kuzma tweeting encouragement at Coulibaly before the draft even occurred. Think he empowers the younger players to play confidently and freely. Will help guys like Bilal, Deni, and Davis like you said.

Doesn’t always translate directly to winning, but we aren’t trying win anything for atleast the next couple of years.

[NatP4]

The problem with signing Kuzma for me isn't his skill level. It's resource allocation. Bilal, Deni, and JD are all guys I wanted to see get big minutes this season. Kuzma probably siphons 10 MPG from each of them.

Tyus, Poole, and Kuzma probably take up at least 100 minutes between the three of them. Some combination of Gafford, Muscala, and Huff take up another 40. That leaves us with 100 minutes to go around for Bilal, JD, Deni, Kispert, Delon, Rollins, PBJ, and Shamet.

I wanted to see Deni playing 30 minutes a game, JD playing 25, and Bilal playing 20. Not going to happen with Kuzma back.

I mostly agree, although a lot of the time you go into the season with rookies/young players slotted into the 3 deep, as opposed to the 2 deep/rotation like we have. Injuries will occur. Wright only played 50 games last year, Shamet played 40, Kuzma only 64. I see it as this:

Tyus 26 Wright OR Shamet 16 Davis 6
Poole 30 Davis 14 Kispert 4
Kispert 24 Coulibaly 20 Avdija 4
Kuzma 24 Avdija 24
Gafford 24 Muscala?? 16 Kuzma 8

Davis 20
Kispert 28
Coulibaly 20
Avdija 28

Think Davis will get plenty of burn as a combo guard between the 1/2, Shamet and Wright both eventually get phased out. Kuzma will play some small ball 5.Vukcevic could easily factor in at the 5 if he comes over this year.

More important is the 2nd half rotation:

Rollins Davis
Poole Davis
Kispert Coulibaly
Kuzma Avdija PBJ
Gafford Vukcevic

[payitforward]

I find this analysis a little strange coming from you PIF given how you typically downplay/dismiss scoring and prioritize things like rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and fouls…areas where Kuz is quite good as you point out.

If I give the impression of downplaying scoring, that's my bad. I should be clearer.

Obviously, you can't win a game unless you score more points than your opponent. Hence, either...

1. your team shoots a higher TS% than the other team, or...
2. your team gets more chances to score (FGAs + .5FTAs) than your opponent...

...or both. If you do both you can't lose. If you do neither, you can't win. These are non-trivial facts, & there's no finessing or avoiding them. Plus, obviously, they translate directly from team to player.

Which brings us to scoring:

a. The more points you score at an above average TS% (& of course the more above average it is) the better player you are (all other things being equal). I.e. the more you help your team win games.

b. Similarly, the more points you score at a below average TS% the worse you are (all other things being equal). I.e. the more you help your team lose games.

Thus a stat like "25 points a game" is completely 100% meaningless independent of how many FGAs/FTAs (i.e "possessions") it took to get those points (i.e. of TS%).

Kuz scores in volume -- but at a substantially lower than average TS%. Thus, the fact that he scores in quantity hurts rather than helps!

His previous 2 seasons weren't as bad -- b/c the volume was lower. But 2022-23 was really awful.

But, as you ask:

Is scoring the only thing that matters when it comes to Kuz?

The second factor in winning -- adding possessions -- is also part of "what gives" in calling him "a bad player." The more possessions you add for your team the more you help it win, i.e. the better you are. The fewer possessions you add the less you help your team win, the worse you are. & of course, possessions you lose count against those you add.

To get a number, simply add up rebounds & steals, & then subtract turnovers.

Per 40 minutes, that composite number for an average PF is +7. For Kuz it's +5.5 (almost exactly average for a SF, btw)

In this as well, Kuz is below average. As is probably obvious, that is entirely because of the extremely high # of TOs he commits. About those, you write:

...As for turnovers, Kuz’s high #s come as no surprise given that he’s called upon to handle the ball more than most forwards....

Sure. But... so what? The result is what it is.

...you label him a “bad player.” What gives?

OTOH, it is fair to point out that he turned the ball over much less in '20-21, his last Lakers season. & that year, along with his first year as a Wizard, were the two best of his career so far.

He wasn't especially "good" (i.e. above average) either of those years, but they highlight what might make him into a good player:

...Kuz needs to shoot less…

If so, maybe his TS% would go up. & of course you'd expect his turnovers to go down as well.

The problem is... I can't see that happening. I can't see his FGAs going down.

[FAH1223]

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