What's the strongest data-driven argument for Michael Jordan as GOAT?

[Medbrat]

6 rings is his strongest argument, Bron has him beat pretty much everywhere else.

[Sedale Threatt]

There are 32 panelist on the project and at least 16 of them are Lebron fans primarily.

Regarding why MJ over Lebron

Lebron is a great player for sure top 3-4 all time and even higher. Jordan was better though. He turned a losing franchise into a dynasty. Won more titles, league mvp's and finals mvp's in shorter years in the league. Lebron hopped from three different teams with stars on multiple of those teams and two instances with 2 stars each time. He has 4 titles in 20 seasons (Curry a guy in his era has as many in less seasons). He won 1 title in 11 seasons with the franchise that drafted him (Hakeem did better than that) and that with coming back and having 2 stars and even having Shaq one of those years. Lebron has missed the playoffs as much as titles won. Also with forming superteams and joining multiple stars I would expect more titles. He did say not 4 not 5 not 6 not 7.
He also won multiple bronze medals for the USA in the Olympics and FIBA and was down at least 3-2 in every series of his career until 2020 and 5 years in a row with HCA 3-2 while losing 3 series in a row with it.

Also lost as the preseason favorite in each of these seasons to these teams.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011_preseason_odds.html (Dallas 7th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_preseason_odds.html (San Antonio 6th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_preseason_odds.html (Golden State 8th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_preseason_odds.html (Lakers 1st)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_preseason_odds.html (Lakers 2nd)

I have to hand it to you JB, you've been metronomic over the years in your commitment to terrible arguments. You realize that absolutely none of this has anything to do with data, correct? I mean, preseason favorites? Lol.

And the thing is, Jordan has as much or more ammunition as anybody. But you consistently trot out these flimsy, dumb narratives. It's been amazing to watch over the years.

[DB23]

[tweet][/tweet]

Why wouldn't you consider Jordan's years with the Wizards serious? Jordan was the same age Lebron is now. Lebron just took the Lakers to the western conference finals beating Steph Curry. Jordan was just a selfish scorer with the Wizards who couldn't even get them to the playoffs!

What lebron is doing now is amazing but sports science and load management has also changed the game and athlete performance considerably over the last 25-30 years.

If what you say is true, why are so many players getting serious injuries? How many players 30 years ago were injured in front of us like Shaun Livingston and Paul George?
How many guys were chronically injured throughout their careers like Derrick Rose and Joel Embiid? Some players over that period of time were actually destroyed by surgeons performing poorly.

So you are saying sport science hasn’t advanced in the last 25-30 years considerably, helping athletes take care of their bodies far better?

Good luck getting any agreement on that.

[DB23]

6 rings is his strongest argument, Bron has him beat pretty much everywhere else.

Congrats for the worst post in the thread

[VanWest82]

I hate using RAPM arguments, but...https://squared2020.com/author/squared2020/

MJ was on pace to be 5th in 85 as a rookie. He was on pace to be 1st in 88, 1st in 91, 1st in 96, and we know he was 1st in 97. Given Bulls won 67 games in 92, it's not a stretch to think he would've ended up 1st that year too. That's already more years finishing #1 than Lebron, and it doesn't even include some of MJ's best years (89, 90, 93). Lebron had years where he was outside the top 50. One of MJ's worst years (98), he was still 4th.

I've always maintained that as impressive as Lebron's 5 and 10 year RAPM samples are, they're likely not even close to MJ's - not the same z score. The only guy who compares and might even be better is Bill Russell, but we'll never get that sample.

[DB23]

There are 32 panelist on the project and at least 16 of them are Lebron fans primarily.

Regarding why MJ over Lebron

Lebron is a great player for sure top 3-4 all time and even higher. Jordan was better though. He turned a losing franchise into a dynasty. Won more titles, league mvp's and finals mvp's in shorter years in the league. Lebron hopped from three different teams with stars on multiple of those teams and two instances with 2 stars each time. He has 4 titles in 20 seasons (Curry a guy in his era has as many in less seasons). He won 1 title in 11 seasons with the franchise that drafted him (Hakeem did better than that) and that with coming back and having 2 stars and even having Shaq one of those years. Lebron has missed the playoffs as much as titles won. Also with forming superteams and joining multiple stars I would expect more titles. He did say not 4 not 5 not 6 not 7.
He also won multiple bronze medals for the USA in the Olympics and FIBA and was down at least 3-2 in every series of his career until 2020 and 5 years in a row with HCA 3-2 while losing 3 series in a row with it.

Also lost as the preseason favorite in each of these seasons to these teams.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2011_preseason_odds.html (Dallas 7th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_preseason_odds.html (San Antonio 6th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_preseason_odds.html (Golden State 8th)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_preseason_odds.html (Lakers 1st)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_preseason_odds.html (Lakers 2nd)

I have to hand it to you JB, you've been metronomic over the years in your commitment to terrible arguments. You realize that absolutely none of this has anything to do with data, correct? I mean, preseason favorites? Lol.

And the thing is, Jordan has as much or more ammunition as anybody. But you consistently trot out these flimsy, dumb narratives. It's been amazing to watch over the years.

Of course it’s data. Whether you think it is relevant or not is another point.

[SelfishPlayer]

James had Davis. Jordan had Rip Hamilton. You want to compare those two?

Jordan got the same results before Pippen and after Pippen, no second round playoff appearance... Lebron got the same results before playing with Hall of Famers and after playing with them, DEEP PLAYOFF RUNS!

You think Lebron winning with Anthony Davis is more impressive than Jordan winning with Pippen?

In 98 Pippen only played in 44 games, has a migraine in game 6, and during the playoffs averaged 17, 7, and 5 on 50 TS%, 19.5 PER.

In 2020 AD played in 62 games during a shortened 71 game season, and during the playoffs averaged 28, 10, and 4 on 66.5 TS%, 29.6 PER.

And I know that stats don’t capture defense, but AD was phenomenal defensively during that playoff run.

And if we’re going by data, I don’t think there’s any data that puts Pippen above Wade or AD.

There is, look at how many times Pippen went to the playoffs without Jordan. AD and Wade did a lot of losing without Lebron and Shaq. Pippen makes people better. You don't have much of a team without Wade or AD as your best player. They will probably sit out injured to get a better lottery pick

[tdot_steel]

I'll just say this, anyone using the 6/6 argument for Jordan better admit that the teams LBJ faced were FAR superior.

Now I know you are clueless and have not watched basketball before 2000.

The quality of teams back in the day were far superior than today. Below are the rosters of some of the playoff teams from the 1989-90 season. Most of the teams have 1 HOF player. Watch some more ball from that era before commenting.

BLAZERS
Clyde Drexler HOF
Jerome Kersey
Dražen Petrović
Terry Porter
Clifford Robinson
Buck Williams

SUNS
Tom Chambers
Kevin Johnson
Jeff Hornacek
Dan Majerle
Eddie Johnson
Kurt Rambis

MAVS
Rolando Blackman
Derek Harper
Roy Tarpley
Sam Perkins
Adrian Dantley HOF

LAKERS
Michael Cooper
Vlade Divac HOF
A.C. Green
Magic Johnson HOF
Byron Scott
Mychal Thompson
James Worthy HOF

ROCKETS
Sleepy Floyd
Buck Johnson
John Lucas
Vernon Maxwell
Hakeem Olajuwon HOF
Otis Thorpe

CELTICS
33 Larry Bird HOF
Dennis Johnson HOF
Reggie Lewis
Kevin McHale HOF
Robert Parish HOF
Jim Paxson

BUCKS
Mike Dunleavy
Ricky Pierce
Paul Pressey
Alvin Robertson
Jack Sikma HOF

SIXERS
Charles Barkley HOF
Johnny Dawkins
Hersey Hawkins
Rick Mahorn

PISTONS
Mark Aguirre
Joe Dumars HOF
Vinnie Johnson
Bill Laimbeer
Dennis Rodman HOF
John Salley
Isiah Thomas HOF

KNICKS
Maurice Cheeks HOF
Patrick Ewing HOF
Mark Jackson
Charles Oakley
Rod Strickland
Kiki Vandeweghe

PACERS
Reggie Miller HOF
Chuck Person
Detlef Schrempf
Rik Smits

CAVS
Ron Harper
Mark Price
Craig Ehlo
Brad Daugherty
Hot Rod Williams
Larry Nance

[DCasey91]

Best scoring volume in history, in conjunction with high efficiency and positive defensive value

Other ATG’s may/may not have better raw +-‘s netrtg and have better offensive impact/ starting floor results

But Jordan is like the plausible deniability outcome in a game especially pre 96.

In that whatever happens his impact from game to game in high pressure games is ultra consistent

But I always find it amusing when the default is Lebron when there are to me other GOAT candidates

And funnily enough they all cancel each other depending on specific or the old diatribe of winning championship criteria.

[SelfishPlayer]

[tweet][/tweet]

What lebron is doing now is amazing but sports science and load management has also changed the game and athlete performance considerably over the last 25-30 years.

If what you say is true, why are so many players getting serious injuries? How many players 30 years ago were injured in front of us like Shaun Livingston and Paul George?
How many guys were chronically injured throughout their careers like Derrick Rose and Joel Embiid? Some players over that period of time were actually destroyed by surgeons performing poorly.

So you are saying sport science hasn’t advanced in the last 25-30 years considerably, helping athletes take care of their bodies far better?

Good luck getting any agreement on that.

Why is load management a thing if sports science is so advanced today? Players should be playing more minutes per game, more games per season, and more seasons per career. The last one may be the only one that is happening, but possibly due to players entering the league earlier.

[MavsDirk41]

Jordan got the same results before Pippen and after Pippen, no second round playoff appearance... Lebron got the same results before playing with Hall of Famers and after playing with them, DEEP PLAYOFF RUNS!

You think Lebron winning with Anthony Davis is more impressive than Jordan winning with Pippen?

In 98 Pippen only played in 44 games, has a migraine in game 6, and during the playoffs averaged 17, 7, and 5 on 50 TS%, 19.5 PER.

In 2020 AD played in 62 games during a shortened 71 game season, and during the playoffs averaged 28, 10, and 4 on 66.5 TS%, 29.6 PER.

And I know that stats don’t capture defense, but AD was phenomenal defensively during that playoff run.

And if we’re going by data, I don’t think there’s any data that puts Pippen above Wade or AD.

There is, look at how many times Pippen went to the playoffs without Jordan. AD and Wade did a lot of losing without Lebron and Shaq. Pippen makes people better. You don't have much of a team without Wade or AD as your best player. They will probably sit out injured to get a better lottery pick

Wade won a championship and finals mvp in 06 lol what are you talking about? He was clearly the best player in the finals and probably the best player in the nba that year.

[knicksNOTslick]

Jordan got the same results before Pippen and after Pippen, no second round playoff appearance... Lebron got the same results before playing with Hall of Famers and after playing with them, DEEP PLAYOFF RUNS!

You think Lebron winning with Anthony Davis is more impressive than Jordan winning with Pippen?

In 98 Pippen only played in 44 games, has a migraine in game 6, and during the playoffs averaged 17, 7, and 5 on 50 TS%, 19.5 PER.

In 2020 AD played in 62 games during a shortened 71 game season, and during the playoffs averaged 28, 10, and 4 on 66.5 TS%, 29.6 PER.

And I know that stats don’t capture defense, but AD was phenomenal defensively during that playoff run.

And if we’re going by data, I don’t think there’s any data that puts Pippen above Wade or AD.

There is, look at how many times Pippen went to the playoffs without Jordan. AD and Wade did a lot of losing without Lebron and Shaq. Pippen makes people better. You don't have much of a team without Wade or AD as your best player. They will probably sit out injured to get a better lottery pick

The thread was asking for data. He gave you the stats and you're throwing it out.

Besides, Wade already won as the #1 guy, Shaq was already a shell of himself. You don't have to belittle AD and Wade's career to prop up Lebron. DWade showed Lebron how to win a ring, not the other way around.

[DB23]

Lebron played with far better team mates for far more seasons and achieved (so far) far less.

[NZB2323]

Jordan never made it past the first round of the playoffs without Pippen...

Let’s put these players in order…

Scottie pippen -3*joint
Anthony Davis -1
Dwayne wade 2
Chris bosh -4
Kyrie irving -3 *joint
Kevin love -5
Dennis Rodman -6
Toni kukoc -7

Lebron has played with so much more talent it’s crazy to use the pippen argument

You forget MJ played with "The Chief" Robert Parish and "The A-Train" Artis Gilmore? What are those guys, chumps?

Robert Parish was 43 when he played for the Bulls, and Artis Gilmore was 38 when he played with Jordan.

If you want to use that logic, Lebron played with Shaq, Ben Wallace, Antawn Jamison, Ray Allen, Derrick Rose, Dwight, Rondo, Westbrook, Carmelo, Marc Gasol, and Isiah Thomas.

[DCasey91]

Lebron played with far better team mates for far more seasons and achieved (so far) far less.

He also went up against better teams prime for prime. Celtics, Spurs, Warriors

97/98 is an eye opener to me as both teams weren’t in their prime/peak play. Jazz got more depth but that was it frankly. Then the next two seasons the NBA was at its low point for quite sometime.

[iggymcfrack]

Lebron played with far better team mates for far more seasons and achieved (so far) far less.

The only way possible that LeBron played with better talent is if you’re accounting for the average team being so much better nowadays. The Wade/Bosh Heat went 9-9 in games he didn’t play and 37-45 the year after he left. The Kyrie/Love Cavs went 4-23 in games LeBron didn’t play. The Pippen/Grant Bulls went 55-27 replacing Jordan with one of the worst starters in the history of the NBA while still paying Jordan. Then in the second three-peat, they replaced Grant with Rodman who was a much better player, especially next to a superstar.

[Fadeaway_Jumper]

Kareem Abdul Jabar beat Jordan on most of the longevity stats but Jordan was still considered the best of all time.

Lebron only has the longevity argument over Jordan. If Kareem was still lower than Jordan than it doesn’t make sense for Lebron to be over Jordan either

[tsherkin]

Why is load management a thing if sports science is so advanced today? Players should be playing more minutes per game, more games per season, and more seasons per career. The last one may be the only one that is happening, but possibly due to players entering the league earlier.

Because the science says injuries are lower when they do it this way, and you can get better overall longevity. There's been a downward trend in MPG since at least the 80s. In the 60s and much of the 70s, 40+ mpg was more the standard, and that eroded over the years. This is the end-point of a trend much older than recent sport science/analytics-driven advancements.

[HotRocks34]

Jordan never had to team-hop to try to stack the deck. That's a big advantage to Jordan.

[SelfishPlayer]

You think Lebron winning with Anthony Davis is more impressive than Jordan winning with Pippen?

In 98 Pippen only played in 44 games, has a migraine in game 6, and during the playoffs averaged 17, 7, and 5 on 50 TS%, 19.5 PER.

In 2020 AD played in 62 games during a shortened 71 game season, and during the playoffs averaged 28, 10, and 4 on 66.5 TS%, 29.6 PER.

And I know that stats don’t capture defense, but AD was phenomenal defensively during that playoff run.

And if we’re going by data, I don’t think there’s any data that puts Pippen above Wade or AD.

There is, look at how many times Pippen went to the playoffs without Jordan. AD and Wade did a lot of losing without Lebron and Shaq. Pippen makes people better. You don't have much of a team without Wade or AD as your best player. They will probably sit out injured to get a better lottery pick

Wade won a championship and finals mvp in 06 lol what are you talking about? He was clearly the best player in the finals and probably the best player in the nba that year.

Shaq's team...

Wade failed to lead Lebron and Bosh. He relinquished the team to Lebron after failing.