MPJ vs S.Barnes vs Wagner

[durantbird]

Which player would you rather have in a rebuilding team? Michael Porter Jr, Scottie Barnes or Franz Wagner?

[acheck13]

Long-time lurker, but girlfriend has been nagging me that “if you waste so much time on the basketball site, why don’t you at least post.” So here are some half-baked thoughts.

Pretty clearly between Barnes and Wagner for me. MPJ is over 3 years older than the other two, the injury concerns will always be there, and I don’t see him developing a diverse enough offensive package to become better than a (very good) third starter. Admittedly, the defense and floor game in the finals was pretty incredible and surprising when you look at where he was as a prospect. But I just don’t know if I see similar avenues to improvement offensively.

Between Barnes and Wagner, I think Barnes has a higher ceiling, but also a much lower floor (Franz, to me, is the better player right now). Watching rookie Franz play live was one of the most eye-opening basketball experiences for me. If I were a better, I’d put money on him making an all NBA team at some point. The combination of his IQ, passing, shooting, defense, and shiftiness at his size and at age 21 is remarkable.

Scottie has the tools to become an incredible player, but the sophomore slump concerned me perhaps more than it did others. His portability is a major disadvantage compared to Franz (unless he really leans into an off-ball connector/ roller/ defender role more, which I’m skeptical of). Ultimately, I’m not super wanting to put the ball in the hands of a shooter as bad as Scottie unless they’re a transcendent athlete (Giannis) or decision maker (Draymond). What’s interesting is Scottie has elements of both in his game, but it’s just hard to imagine him making that leap.

Will freely admit I’ve watched Scottie the least of the three, but voted Franz.

[rk2023]

Wagner, confidently so at this point.

[rand]

Long-time lurker, but girlfriend has been nagging me that “if you waste so much time on the basketball site, why don’t you at least post.” So here are some half-baked thoughts.

Most constructive gf criticism ever

[cupcakesnake]

Long-time lurker, but girlfriend has been nagging me that “if you waste so much time on the basketball site, why don’t you at least post.” So here are some half-baked thoughts.

Pretty clearly between Barnes and Wagner for me. MPJ is over 3 years older than the other two, the injury concerns will always be there, and I don’t see him developing a diverse enough offensive package to become better than a (very good) third starter. Admittedly, the defense and floor game in the finals was pretty incredible and surprising when you look at where he was as a prospect. But I just don’t know if I see similar avenues to improvement offensively.

Between Barnes and Wagner, I think Barnes has a higher ceiling, but also a much lower floor (Franz, to me, is the better player right now). Watching rookie Franz play live was one of the most eye-opening basketball experiences for me. If I were a better, I’d put money on him making an all NBA team at some point. The combination of his IQ, passing, shooting, defense, and shiftiness at his size and at age 21 is remarkable.

Scottie has the tools to become an incredible player, but the sophomore slump concerned me perhaps more than it did others. His portability is a major disadvantage compared to Franz (unless he really leans into an off-ball connector/ roller/ defender role more, which I’m skeptical of). Ultimately, I’m not super wanting to put the ball in the hands of a shooter as bad as Scottie unless they’re a transcendent athlete (Giannis) or decision maker (Draymond). What’s interesting is Scottie has elements of both in his game, but it’s just hard to imagine him making that leap.

Will freely admit I’ve watched Scottie the least of the three, but voted Franz.

Congrats on the end of your lurk!
Basically showed up to write what you did. As a Toronto resident, I have watched a lot of Scottie.

Like acheck13 says: Barnes has the higher ceiling, lower floor. Barnes is more questions than answers. The physical tools are pretty staggering. Giant stride length, giant wingspan, staggering max vertical when he can get to it. The passing skills and vision are very real and he quietly improved on them in year 2 despite his scoring game faltering. The questions are all about his scoring game. It's not just the shot (though that would certainly be nice!) it's the question of whether he can turn his physical tools into rim pressure. If Scottie is too tough to handle inside, and can draw doubles, his passing becomes a serious weapon. Right now he's passing in the margins. It's impressive but more like a Big Rubio-lite than a Magic Johnson. In theory, Scottie could grow in the Magic direction: a physical presence too punishing to ignore, but one that murders you with passing reads if you give him too much attention. I think that possibility with Scottie is very real, but doesn't become projectable until he shows he can actually put pressure on the defense. Right now he doesn't, and it's not guaranteed that he will.

Franz is just good already. He's so big and so good. I know lots of people know this but also lots of people are sleeping on him a bit. 6'9" barefoot but he can really play offense and defense as a full on wing. Good perimeter footspeed and guard like hands. A real pullup game. Decent playmaking chops. Franz is just a few little clean ups away from becoming an efficient offensive force, and then boom that's a 2-way All-NBA level wing. But he's not a blue chip athletic prospect in the way Scottie is, and he doesn't have that one stand out skill (Scottie's passing) in the same way. But Franz is way better right now and projects to be better. I'd say it's Franz by a mile until/unless Scottie adds a missing ingredient. Franz has no missing ingredients, he's ready to go.

I've been an outspoken supporter of MPJ. The guy we saw 2 seasons ago legit looked like he could end up being a 6'10" version of Klay Thompson but with pogo-stick hops at the rim. We've never seen a finisher type player like that before. The guy was shooting 84% on the rim and 44% from 3. Both on high volume. I feel confident guessing no one has ever done that. He was way above average from everywhere on the floor. But then the back injuries immediately popped into the picture. I'm very curious to see if he can continue to bounce back, but he was much less athletic this year. His jump shot looked more laborious. He still finished efficiently at the rim, but got to it way less because he wasn't able to cut as quickly or roll as hard. He played his same game but looked like 75% of his 2021 self. If he can get healthy, he could be the most terrifying finisher ever IMO. But the injury question is just too big with him. I think he has a lot of room to grow in other areas, and I mean that positively. I'm hoping to see him slowly improve his bbiq as a cutter and passer. There were moments in the playoffs where he looked to be learning, and other moments where he looked like by far the dumbest player on the Nuggets.

[cupcakesnake]

Long-time lurker, but girlfriend has been nagging me that “if you waste so much time on the basketball site, why don’t you at least post.” So here are some half-baked thoughts.

Most constructive gf criticism ever

Haha yeah, what a good girlfriend!