Moderators: Domejandro, Calinks, Worm Guts
Domejandro wrote:Please no Bol Bol. The dude is a horrific net-negative when he is on-the-court.
I am not exaggerating when I call him a bottom five player in the NBA.
younggunsmn wrote:Keeping this team together after this year will be very expensive and difficult, KAT and Gobert will combine for 96 million next year.
We will be about 20 million into the tax and over the very punitive 2nd tax threshold before even thinking about re-signing 2 of our top 7 players, Conley and Anderson. Trading KAT or Gobert this offseason is a legit talker.
Biff Cooper wrote:younggunsmn wrote:Keeping this team together after this year will be very expensive and difficult, KAT and Gobert will combine for 96 million next year.
We will be about 20 million into the tax and over the very punitive 2nd tax threshold before even thinking about re-signing 2 of our top 7 players, Conley and Anderson. Trading KAT or Gobert this offseason is a legit talker.
Just to throw out some numbers in support of this... Sportrac has us at approx. 164 million of a 172 million luxury tax without contracts for Conley, Anderson, McDaniels, (or McLaughlin). McDaniels extension is a big question mark. I'm personally thinking in the $20 million range is fairer than $15 or $25, but TBD based on this season. I don't expect an extension prior to RFA.
I'd think Conley's days of getting $20-$30 million contracts are probably over, and he could potentially be had for ~$10-15. Anderson could probably get a bit of a raise from the $9M he is currently getting. Definitely into the 2nd tax threshold when you put it all together.
I'm expecting the team to mesh this year, be healthy, finish near the top in the West, win a couple of playoff series, engage the fan base, and have ownership justify going $25M over the luxury tax line to support of an improving team. Until they disappoint, I don't see the point of talking KAT or Gobert trade.
SO_MONEY wrote:If you are going in expecting these things, but they don't happen it is probably too late to talk trade or at least one for value. If they disappoint again we will be lucky to make a beneficial cap move. Now is the time to talk trade, next year if it doesn't work the FO will be talking bottom line. You are banking on so much to not act now, it is better to act too soon rather than too late. The fact this is even being debated is a sign we probably would be acting to late as it is.
Biff Cooper wrote:SO_MONEY wrote:If you are going in expecting these things, but they don't happen it is probably too late to talk trade or at least one for value. If they disappoint again we will be lucky to make a beneficial cap move. Now is the time to talk trade, next year if it doesn't work the FO will be talking bottom line. You are banking on so much to not act now, it is better to act too soon rather than too late. The fact this is even being debated is a sign we probably would be acting to late as it is.
Lorre, A-Rod, and Taylor OK'd the Gobert trade and KAT extension knowing full well that there would be a luxury tax bill coming in a couple of years. Not sure why we are acting like they are going to want to pivot away from that now just because year one was a bit of a disappointment.
Biff Cooper wrote:SO_MONEY wrote:If you are going in expecting these things, but they don't happen it is probably too late to talk trade or at least one for value. If they disappoint again we will be lucky to make a beneficial cap move. Now is the time to talk trade, next year if it doesn't work the FO will be talking bottom line. You are banking on so much to not act now, it is better to act too soon rather than too late. The fact this is even being debated is a sign we probably would be acting to late as it is.
Lorre, A-Rod, and Taylor OK'd the Gobert trade and KAT extension knowing full well that there would be a luxury tax bill coming in a couple of years. Not sure why we are acting like they are going to want to pivot away from that now just because year one was a bit of a disappointment.
Biff Cooper wrote:younggunsmn wrote:Keeping this team together after this year will be very expensive and difficult, KAT and Gobert will combine for 96 million next year.
We will be about 20 million into the tax and over the very punitive 2nd tax threshold before even thinking about re-signing 2 of our top 7 players, Conley and Anderson. Trading KAT or Gobert this offseason is a legit talker.
Just to throw out some numbers in support of this... Sportrac has us at approx. 164 million of a 172 million luxury tax without contracts for Conley, Anderson, McDaniels, (or McLaughlin). McDaniels extension is a big question mark. I'm personally thinking in the $20 million range is fairer than $15 or $25, but TBD based on this season. I don't expect an extension prior to RFA.
I'd think Conley's days of getting $20-$30 million contracts are probably over, and he could potentially be had for ~$10-15. Anderson could probably get a bit of a raise from the $9M he is currently getting. Definitely into the 2nd tax threshold when you put it all together.
I'm expecting the team to mesh this year, be healthy, finish near the top in the West, win a couple of playoff series, engage the fan base, and have ownership justify going $25M over the luxury tax line to support of an improving team. Until they disappoint, I don't see the point of talking KAT or Gobert trade.
minimus wrote:Biff Cooper wrote:SO_MONEY wrote:If you are going in expecting these things, but they don't happen it is probably too late to talk trade or at least one for value. If they disappoint again we will be lucky to make a beneficial cap move. Now is the time to talk trade, next year if it doesn't work the FO will be talking bottom line. You are banking on so much to not act now, it is better to act too soon rather than too late. The fact this is even being debated is a sign we probably would be acting to late as it is.
Lorre, A-Rod, and Taylor OK'd the Gobert trade and KAT extension knowing full well that there would be a luxury tax bill coming in a couple of years. Not sure why we are acting like they are going to want to pivot away from that now just because year one was a bit of a disappointment.
John K. said that they didn't know about changes in new CBA. I highly doubt that new ownership will pay luxury tax, keep in mind that this CBA is made EXACTLY to make difficult it for teams like current MIN. They still can pay luxury tax, they still can go over 1st and 2nd apron, but they must be damn sure that they will succeed. And last season MIN never dominated like team who can be successful in playoffs against top teams, they had good games against SAC, DAL, GSW, but they never had a stretch of good games. Will they play well enough to make new ownership to invest more money in Conley, Anderson after next season? I highly doubt. MIN is not big market team, ARod and Lore don't have as many resources as Balmer.
minimus wrote:John K. said that they didn't know about changes in new CBA. I highly doubt that new ownership will pay luxury tax, keep in mind that this CBA is made EXACTLY to make difficult it for teams like current MIN. They still can pay luxury tax, they still can go over 1st and 2nd apron, but they must be damn sure that they will succeed. And last season MIN never dominated like team who can be successful in playoffs against top teams, they had good games against SAC, DAL, GSW, but they never had a stretch of good games. Will they play well enough to make new ownership to invest more money in Conley, Anderson after next season? I highly doubt. MIN is not big market team, ARod and Lore don't have as many resources as Balmer.
Biff Cooper wrote:younggunsmn wrote:Keeping this team together after this year will be very expensive and difficult, KAT and Gobert will combine for 96 million next year.
We will be about 20 million into the tax and over the very punitive 2nd tax threshold before even thinking about re-signing 2 of our top 7 players, Conley and Anderson. Trading KAT or Gobert this offseason is a legit talker.
Just to throw out some numbers in support of this... Sportrac has us at approx. 164 million of a 172 million luxury tax without contracts for Conley, Anderson, McDaniels, (or McLaughlin). McDaniels extension is a big question mark. I'm personally thinking in the $20 million range is fairer than $15 or $25, but TBD based on this season. I don't expect an extension prior to RFA.
I'd think Conley's days of getting $20-$30 million contracts are probably over, and he could potentially be had for ~$10-15. Anderson could probably get a bit of a raise from the $9M he is currently getting. Definitely into the 2nd tax threshold when you put it all together.
I'm expecting the team to mesh this year, be healthy, finish near the top in the West, win a couple of playoff series, engage the fan base, and have ownership justify going $25M over the luxury tax line to support of an improving team. Until they disappoint, I don't see the point of talking KAT or Gobert trade.
TimberKat wrote:minimus wrote:John K. said that they didn't know about changes in new CBA. I highly doubt that new ownership will pay luxury tax, keep in mind that this CBA is made EXACTLY to make difficult it for teams like current MIN. They still can pay luxury tax, they still can go over 1st and 2nd apron, but they must be damn sure that they will succeed. And last season MIN never dominated like team who can be successful in playoffs against top teams, they had good games against SAC, DAL, GSW, but they never had a stretch of good games. Will they play well enough to make new ownership to invest more money in Conley, Anderson after next season? I highly doubt. MIN is not big market team, ARod and Lore don't have as many resources as Balmer.
With all the roster changes and KAT out 50+ games, we still have winning records against the playoffs teams ( we had tie breaker over just about ever team), I also assume Ant and JMcD hasn't hit their ceiling yet, the new guys are better than Nowell/Rivers. Isn't that enough of an indicator that this team has the potential to deep into the playoffs? Are we scared by any Western conference team other than Suns? Hold the team together will get the consistency that you are looking for.
I am not saying ownership will not make trades for Gobert/Towns/JMcD but if they believe it works, they can make it work financially.
minimus wrote:Our record last season should be viewed in context of other teams in West. Many opponents had problems, so I honestly believe that 50+ games were possible. But. Look at this season situation:
DEN - champions, lost Brown, but should have enough depth to compensate
MEM - got rid of Brooks, got Smart. They have two DPOY candidates JJJ + Smart, and two elite shooters Kennard + Bane
SAC - added Euroleague MVP Vesenkov and wing depth
PHO - added Beal + many quality role players KD+Booker+Beal
LAС - I think they will try to trade PG13, Kawhi, but they wont tank
GSW - got rid of Poole. got CP3. Wiggins, GP2 should be back at full strength
LAL - got Reaves, Rui, DLo back. Plus Vincent, TP, Hayes
NOP - have a lot of good young players who can improve
OKC - Chet is back, have a lot of good young players who can improve
DAL - Irving resigned
UTA - have a good team
POR - will rebuild around Scoot
HOU - got FVV, Brooks
SAS - will rebuild around Wemby
I can see how every single team in West will play every game in order t win. There is not much value for tanking this year, 2024 draft class is considered to be weak. Getting 50+ wins this year will be much, much harder
tsherkin wrote:The important thing to take away here is that Klomp is wrong.
Esohny wrote:Why are you asking Klomp? "He's" actually a bot that posts random blurbs from a database.
Klomp wrote:I'm putting the tired in retired mod at the moment
Biff Cooper wrote:younggunsmn wrote:Keeping this team together after this year will be very expensive and difficult, KAT and Gobert will combine for 96 million next year.
We will be about 20 million into the tax and over the very punitive 2nd tax threshold before even thinking about re-signing 2 of our top 7 players, Conley and Anderson. Trading KAT or Gobert this offseason is a legit talker.
Just to throw out some numbers in support of this... Sportrac has us at approx. 164 million of a 172 million luxury tax without contracts for Conley, Anderson, McDaniels, (or McLaughlin). McDaniels extension is a big question mark. I'm personally thinking in the $20 million range is fairer than $15 or $25, but TBD based on this season. I don't expect an extension prior to RFA.
I'd think Conley's days of getting $20-$30 million contracts are probably over, and he could potentially be had for ~$10-15. Anderson could probably get a bit of a raise from the $9M he is currently getting. Definitely into the 2nd tax threshold when you put it all together.
I'm expecting the team to mesh this year, be healthy, finish near the top in the West, win a couple of playoff series, engage the fan base, and have ownership justify going $25M over the luxury tax line to support of an improving team. Until they disappoint, I don't see the point of talking KAT or Gobert trade.
younggunsmn wrote:We are bare minimum at 197 million, 16 mil into the tax and 4 mil below the 2nd threshold.
That's just paying our guaranteed salary and filling out the roster with minimums.
That's before Conley, Anderson, our 1st round pick, or picking up the options on Milton and Brown Jr.
younggunsmn wrote:Biff Cooper wrote:younggunsmn wrote:Keeping this team together after this year will be very expensive and difficult, KAT and Gobert will combine for 96 million next year.
We will be about 20 million into the tax and over the very punitive 2nd tax threshold before even thinking about re-signing 2 of our top 7 players, Conley and Anderson. Trading KAT or Gobert this offseason is a legit talker.
Just to throw out some numbers in support of this... Sportrac has us at approx. 164 million of a 172 million luxury tax without contracts for Conley, Anderson, McDaniels, (or McLaughlin). McDaniels extension is a big question mark. I'm personally thinking in the $20 million range is fairer than $15 or $25, but TBD based on this season. I don't expect an extension prior to RFA.
I'd think Conley's days of getting $20-$30 million contracts are probably over, and he could potentially be had for ~$10-15. Anderson could probably get a bit of a raise from the $9M he is currently getting. Definitely into the 2nd tax threshold when you put it all together.
I'm expecting the team to mesh this year, be healthy, finish near the top in the West, win a couple of playoff series, engage the fan base, and have ownership justify going $25M over the luxury tax line to support of an improving team. Until they disappoint, I don't see the point of talking KAT or Gobert trade.
I laid the 2024/25 cap situation out in the capology thread:
I think Jaden will get more than Cam Johnson (4/108 or 27 mil/yr), so I pegged him at 27.5.
Could be less, but not a lot less. I'd be very very surprised at anything under 25.
This all assumes the cap goes up the max 10%:
2024/25 Estimated Salary Cap 149.523,100
2024/25 Estimated Luxury Tax 181,823,400
2024/25 Estimated 1st Apron 189,580,600
2024/25 Estimated 2nd Apron 201,073,400
2024/25 Estimated 25% Max (0-6 yrs) 37,380,750
2024/25 Estimated 30% Max (7-9 yrs) 44,856,930
2024/25 Estimated 35% Max (10+ yrs) 52,333,085
2024/25 Estimated 2 Yr vet min 2,220,984
Guarantees:
1. Towns 52,333,085
2. Gobert 43,827,586
3. Edwards 37,380,750
4. McDaniels 27,500,000 (estimate)
5. Reid 13,986,432
6. NAW 4,600,000
7. Moore 2,537,000
8. Minott 2,019,699
9. Miller 1,800,000
Total 185,984,552
+ 5 vet mins 11,104,920
Total 197,089,472
Player Options:
Milton 5,200,000
+2,979,016 than a vet min
Brown Jr 4,100,000
+1,879,016 than a vet min
Draft Picks
Own 1st rounder
2nd, lesser of Mem/Washington
Free Agents
Conley (unrestricted, bird rights)
Anderson (unrestricted, early bird rights)
Garza (2-way restricted)
We are bare minimum at 197 million, 16 mil into the tax and 4 mil below the 2nd threshold.
That's just paying our guaranteed salary and filling out the roster with minimums.
That's before Conley, Anderson, our 1st round pick, or picking up the options on Milton and Brown Jr.
That's why I think we will have to show some major winning for KAT/Gobert to both be back.
Gobert is already not tradable for positive value given his contract.
So it will have to be KAT or Jaden moved if the edict comes down to cut costs.
There is risk in waiting. Easier to trade and salary match 36 mil vs 52 million.
Or 3.9 for Jaden vs a big extension with a poison pill due to the big salary jump.
That's why teams were calling us on him during the draft.
But there is also risk in pulling the plug too early.
minimus wrote:younggunsmn wrote:We are bare minimum at 197 million, 16 mil into the tax and 4 mil below the 2nd threshold.
That's just paying our guaranteed salary and filling out the roster with minimums.
That's before Conley, Anderson, our 1st round pick, or picking up the options on Milton and Brown Jr.
Oh Math, Thou Art a Heartless Bitch!
P.S. Fans just dont realize this. Especially in context of war and possible financial crisis.
TimberKat wrote:There is more than 100 ways to skin a KAT and here is one. Let's go with your number and do this:
1. Starting number 197M
2. Take out Moore -2.5M
3. Take out Vet Mins -11.1M
4. Add Milton +5.2M
5. Add Brown +4.1M
6. Add 1st round pick +5.0M
7. JMcD at 25M instead of 27: -2.0M
8. Sign Conley + 5.0M
9. Trade the 2nd round pick for cash
Total of 200M with 12 players, fill the other two spots for under 325K to get under 2nd Apron
Starting line up: Gobert, Towns, JMcD, Ant, Conley
Backups: Naz, Brown, Milton, NAW
Developing: Minott, Miller, 1st rounder, guy1, guy2
As you can see there is other variation to the same theme. Such as trade the 1st and a player to get a 10M player. Ultimately, go over 2nd Apron is an option also if you are confident of the team. By 25/26, there is new cap money coming in.
No room for KA, Moore, Clark may take Minott's spot
younggunsmn wrote:TimberKat wrote:There is more than 100 ways to skin a KAT and here is one. Let's go with your number and do this:
1. Starting number 197M
2. Take out Moore -2.5M
3. Take out Vet Mins -11.1M
4. Add Milton +5.2M
5. Add Brown +4.1M
6. Add 1st round pick +5.0M
7. JMcD at 25M instead of 27: -2.0M
8. Sign Conley + 5.0M
9. Trade the 2nd round pick for cash
Total of 200M with 12 players, fill the other two spots for under 325K to get under 2nd Apron
Starting line up: Gobert, Towns, JMcD, Ant, Conley
Backups: Naz, Brown, Milton, NAW
Developing: Minott, Miller, 1st rounder, guy1, guy2
As you can see there is other variation to the same theme. Such as trade the 1st and a player to get a 10M player. Ultimately, go over 2nd Apron is an option also if you are confident of the team. By 25/26, there is new cap money coming in.
No room for KA, Moore, Clark may take Minott's spot
You seem to not have a real good grasp on cap math.
Declining Moore's option (have to decide by this Nov1) would save us a whopping 300k over a vet minimum replacement.
Replacing Minott actually costs us more money.
The new CBA states you must fill 14 minimum roster spots for all but 28 days and no longer than 2 weeks at a time with less.
There is no way to fill a roster spot for 325k.
Outside of moving those top 7 guaranteed deals, the only way to save ANY money is to replace a vet min contract (2.2 million) with a rookie minimum contract (~1.2 million next year).
Milton, Brown, 1st round pick, you are talking probably minimum another 6-7 million on top of the 197.
Conley is coming back for 5 million? How washed would he have to be to re-sign for that?
In fact, if our pick is 20 or later next year I could see us trading back into the 2nd just to get off of the guaranteed rookie scale money.
There is virtually no way to run it back in '24 without avoiding the punitive 2nd tax level.
The question is are we going to be good enough to justify that this year, or will we be selling off a big asset or 2 next summer at a fraction of their current value.
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