What's the strongest data-driven argument for Michael Jordan as GOAT?

[jehosafats]

You had to have been there. Young people see Lebron and think to themselves "hes the best ever" but most people who watched Jordan know there is a whole different level MJ reached. Much to LBJ fan boys dismay it's also all on film.

Lies. I grew up watching Jordan. Lebron is the better all around player. Jordan is arguably the best 'position' player in NBA history. That doesn't mean he can even sniff the multidimensional role someone like Lebron has to fill in order for his teams to be successful.

Jordan hagiography annoys me, frankly. I've seen both play in their primes and there's really no comparison.

The magic of MJ was his all around game. He was more versatile then LeBron. One reason the Bulls won was because of MJ's ability to adapt. The do everything schtick Bron does, MJ was doing that in 89. And then when Phil came along, he moved off ball, which allowed Scottie, Horce, Paxson etc. to excel. He was the ultimate utility player.

I love this fantasyland where Jordan can do everything Lebron can do, only better. Laughable.

Did Jordan ever have to play all 5 positions at a high enough level for his team to win?

That's what I thought.

MJ be like: "Beam me up Scottie!"

In all seriousness, I always respected Jordan's head for the game. He ain't Lebron, though. Jordan was a scorer and defensive juggernaut who could get a bucket. But he couldn't be expected to orchestrate the offense. That wasn't his game, or his era for that matter.

Lebron is an altogether different kind of player who people have decided really isn't that great. Apparently. The All-Time Scoring leader is somehow something to sneeze at. All because he doesn't have some dubious 6 for 6 Finals record. Has anyone ever stopped to think that maybe it was easier to go 6/6 then than it is now? I'm not impressed by this at all.

Jordan is the reason I was primarily a fan of passers growing up. I knew instinctively that teams need scorers, but they're not what make teams work. Hence, I was a heavy fan of Stockton, Kidd, and Webber, for example. All exceptional distributors.

Lebron know this. That's why he's All-Time #1 scoring and #4 assists. But if you listen to people here that's just "longevity," as if to say teams are just automated NBA 2K background results, and all you really need is a scoring barrage from a key player to be successful in the NBA.

[JordansBulls]

Since 2020 Lebron lost in round 1 as the #1 favorite in 2021 https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_preseason_odds.html (Lakers 1st)

Then in 2022 as the #2 favorite missed play in https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2022_preseason_odds.html (Lakers 2nd)

And this year was in the 13th seed until a trade happened and then got swept 4-0 which was the third decade he got swept 4-0.

[DCasey91]

I think MJ is running out of actual arguments

Their primes are comparable but the longevity is not even close.

Lebron played much better competition in a clearly more talented league

Lebron is also a better all around player.

It’s tough to say anyone is better than a guy that has dramn near 2 decades of MVP level play….

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You might want to check Pippen and Grant vs Pacers George and Hawks Horford age for age and season by season performance specifically early mid 20’s I.e peak/prime play. The metrics may/may not surprise you

People forget his first stint which is a players half career (7 seasons) was pretty awful.

[MavsDirk41]

You had to have been there. Young people see Lebron and think to themselves "hes the best ever" but most people who watched Jordan know there is a whole different level MJ reached. Much to LBJ fan boys dismay it's also all on film.

Lies. I grew up watching Jordan. Lebron is the better all around player. Jordan is arguably the best 'position' player in NBA history. That doesn't mean he can even sniff the multidimensional role someone like Lebron has to fill in order for his teams to be successful.

Jordan hagiography annoys me, frankly. I've seen both play in their primes and there's really no comparison.

You are right, i have seen both play in their primes too and there really is no comparison. Give me the guy who didnt choke against my Mavs and have to team up with two other allstars to win a championship.

[Taj FTW]

I think MJ is running out of actual arguments

Their primes are comparable but the longevity is not even close.

Lebron played much better competition in a clearly more talented league

Lebron is also a better all around player.

It’s tough to say anyone is better than a guy that has dramn near 2 decades of MVP level play….

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You know what, you didn't convince me the first 50 times you cried about him changing teams, but after your 51st tantrum about it, I think you convinced me.

[Taj FTW]

I think MJ is running out of actual arguments

Their primes are comparable but the longevity is not even close.

Lebron played much better competition in a clearly more talented league

Lebron is also a better all around player.

It’s tough to say anyone is better than a guy that has dramn near 2 decades of MVP level play….

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You might want to check Pippen and Grant vs Pacers George and Hawks Horford age for age and season by season performance specifically early mid 20’s I.e peak/prime play. The metrics may/may not surprise you

People forget his first stint which is a players half career (7 seasons) was pretty awful.

Metrics are for nerds! He goes with his gut.

[GreenBloodedC]

LeBron had the worst finals performance for a supposed GOAT

[MavsDirk41]

I think MJ is running out of actual arguments

Their primes are comparable but the longevity is not even close.

Lebron played much better competition in a clearly more talented league

Lebron is also a better all around player.

It’s tough to say anyone is better than a guy that has dramn near 2 decades of MVP level play….

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You know what, you didn't convince me the first 50 times you cried about him changing teams, but after your 51st tantrum about it, I think you convinced me.

Then prove me wrong boy

[MavsDirk41]

Spoiler:

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You might want to check Pippen and Grant vs Pacers George and Hawks Horford age for age and season by season performance specifically early mid 20’s I.e peak/prime play. The metrics may/may not surprise you

People forget his first stint which is a players half career (7 seasons) was pretty awful.

Metrics are for nerds! He goes with his gut.

Arent you the moron who said Horace Grant was better than Chris Bosh cause win shares? Clown

Make your point without the personal attacks.

[MavsDirk41]

I think MJ is running out of actual arguments

Their primes are comparable but the longevity is not even close.

Lebron played much better competition in a clearly more talented league

Lebron is also a better all around player.

It’s tough to say anyone is better than a guy that has dramn near 2 decades of MVP level play….

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You might want to check Pippen and Grant vs Pacers George and Hawks Horford age for age and season by season performance specifically early mid 20’s I.e peak/prime play. The metrics may/may not surprise you

People forget his first stint which is a players half career (7 seasons) was pretty awful.

Pippen is the only player to make the allstar team as Jordans teammate. Grant made it once with Orlando and Rodman a couple times with Detroit. Wade, Bosh, Irving, Love, and Davis all made the allstar team playing along side James. Wade and Bosh made it all 4 years they played on that Miami Heat superteam. Jordan never had two allstar teammates. Thats the point im making.

[JordansBulls]

I think MJ is running out of actual arguments

Their primes are comparable but the longevity is not even close.

Lebron played much better competition in a clearly more talented league

Lebron is also a better all around player.

It’s tough to say anyone is better than a guy that has dramn near 2 decades of MVP level play….

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You know what, you didn't convince me the first 50 times you cried about him changing teams, but after your 51st tantrum about it, I think you convinced me.

Lebron had Shaq as well lost in round 2 with HCA, while Kobe won 3 titles with Shaq and Wade won a title with Shaq. Lebron also had peak Duncan and Iverson and won bronze medal for America.
Lebron has also lost to every elite big in his era. Lost to Dwight, KG, Dirk while having HCA. Lost to Duncan, Durant, Jokic and then even lost to Devin Booker who put a career high of 47 on him.

[jowglenn]

LOL who needs data? I watched Jordan play, and I watched Lebron play. I’ve watched them both live, I’ve watched them both in countless playoff runs.

Michael Jordan is hands down the GOAT and it’s not even close.

[DCasey91]

James had way more talent on his teams than Jordan and its not even close. Jordan never played on a team with two other allstars. James did in Miami and Cleveland and still trails Jordan in championships. You lebron james fanboys are delusional

You might want to check Pippen and Grant vs Pacers George and Hawks Horford age for age and season by season performance specifically early mid 20’s I.e peak/prime play. The metrics may/may not surprise you

People forget his first stint which is a players half career (7 seasons) was pretty awful.

Pippen is the only player to make the allstar team as Jordans teammate. Grant made it once with Orlando and Rodman a couple times with Detroit. Wade, Bosh, Irving, Love, and Davis all made the allstar team playing along side James. Wade and Bosh made it all 4 years they played on that Miami Heat superteam. Jordan never had two allstar teammates. Thats the point im making.

There’s some dubious all star nods don’t you agree? How about All Star impact.

Jordan had not just that but All NBA impact from teammates, better talent spread age wise then Lebron did at the same ages or essentially 7 seasons of basketball. That’s a heck of a long time. Both Grant and Pippen had a 5+ VORP seasons which is more than excellent by any standard you measure.

Besides Russell, Kareem post prime, Magic

Lebron (early to peak) Wilt/Hakeem/KG got the shorter end of the stick so to speak

That’s my point I’m making.

[JordansBulls]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2267491&start=420

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2008047&start=500

There is also 60 million on Youtube

[MavsDirk41]

You might want to check Pippen and Grant vs Pacers George and Hawks Horford age for age and season by season performance specifically early mid 20’s I.e peak/prime play. The metrics may/may not surprise you

People forget his first stint which is a players half career (7 seasons) was pretty awful.

Pippen is the only player to make the allstar team as Jordans teammate. Grant made it once with Orlando and Rodman a couple times with Detroit. Wade, Bosh, Irving, Love, and Davis all made the allstar team playing along side James. Wade and Bosh made it all 4 years they played on that Miami Heat superteam. Jordan never had two allstar teammates. Thats the point im making.

There’s some dubious all star nods don’t you agree? How about All Star impact.

Jordan had not just that but All NBA impact from teammates, better talent spread age wise then Lebron did at the same ages or essentially 7 seasons of basketball. That’s a heck of a long time. Both Grant and Pippen had a 5+ VORP seasons which is more than excellent by any standard you measure.

Besides Russell, Kareem post prime, Magic

Lebron (early to peak) Wilt/Hakeem/KG got the shorter end of the stick so to speak

That’s my point I’m making.

Moving the goal post?? Wade won a championship and finals mvp without James. Bosh was one of the best two way bigs in the nba when he left Toronto to join James in Miami. Kyrie Irving made the allstar team prior to James joining him in Cleveland. Love was a double double machine in Minnesota before joining James and Irving in Cleveland via trade. Davis was a monster in New Orleans and still is when healthy obviously. None of them are or were dubious allstar selections or had questionable allstar impact…

Pippen was an outstanding all around talent and one of my favorite players to watch in the 90s. The Bulls dont 3 peat without Horace Grant. He was perfect with Jordan and Grant. Im not minimizing the talent Jordan played with, but if you think he had more talent on his teams than James, we will have to agree to disagree.

[LukaTheGOAT]

There isn't one.

Go watch this video and rethink.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

The person in the video has Lebron #1 all-time. He thinks there peaks are comparable, and believes could go either way. But I mean yeah, if you put more emphasis on who was the best at their best, then this argument is consistent.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

His peak regular season and playoff production on both ends edges Lebron while Lebron's longevity edges Jordan.

Look at some of MJ's prime years:

1987: 37, 5 and 5 with 3 steals, 1.5 blocks on 48% shooting.
1988: 35, 6 and 6 with 3 steals, 1.6 blocks on 54% shooting.
1989: 33, 8 and 8 with 3 steals, 1 block on 54% shooting.
1990: 34, 7 and 6 with 3 steals, 1 block on 53% shooting.
1991: 32, 6 and 6 with 3 steals, 1 block on 52% shooting.
1992: 30, 5 and 6 with 2 steals, 1 block on 52% shooting.
1993: 33, 7 and 5 with 2 steals, 1 block on 50% shooting.

His peak playoff stats also outshine Lebron.

1988: 36, 7 and 5 with 2 steals, 2 blocks on 53% shooting.
1989: 35, 7 and 8 with 2.5 steals, 1 block on 51% shooting.
1990: 37, 7 and 7 with 3 steals, 1 block on 51% shooting.
1991: 31, 6 and 8 with 2.4 steals, 1.4 blocks on 52% shooting.
1992: 35, 6 and 6 with 2 steals, 1 block on 50% shooting.
1993: 35, 7 and 6 with with 2 steals, 1 block on 48% shooting.

Absolutely insane.

And even more insane is that during his peak in 1993 he decided to retire for nearly 2 years.

These are insane numbers when teams were scoring much much less than today. Scoring <100 was much more common. It’s been said a million times but with the way fouls are also called today…it’s easy to think he’d absolutely dominate todays game. Maybe more than he did in the 80s/90s

There wasn't a season in the 80s where the average PPG was below 107. Can you quantify how much more common <100 games were?

I’m sure you can. I’m not going to. But feel free to pull the number of games where a team scored less than 100 points a game. And then another cut of the the average PPG today vs then. I’m sure it’ll help

[LukaTheGOAT]

Highest PER all time season and playoffs

Highest Box Plus Minus all time season and playoffs

Highest scoring average all time season and playoffs

Most scoring titles all time

Undefeated in series with hca and/or the same record as opponent

Highest WS/Per 48 all time

Most cumulative of titles, league mvp and finals mvp all time. Remember always had to win 4 series while Russell for 8 of his titles only had to win 2 series.

Never played with a player in the NBA who won league or finals mvp.

Turned a franchise that never won into a dynasty. He didn’t win 1 title in 11 years for the franchise that drafted him.

I'm pretty sure 2009 Lebron has the highest Box Plus-Minus all-time when you factor in RS and PS. 2009 Lebron beats Jordan's best year in RS and PS at the very least.

[payton2kemp]

So its better if he lost in the first/second/third round and not make finals because that would make his record look better?

That makes zero sense.

The stupidity around that premise is astounding.

"If only lebron had lost in the first round more, i would have him higher on my list"

Only people who grew up in the participation trophy era want to reward Lebron as GOAT for making it to the Finals more than Jordan despite only winning 4 times to his 6. We are pretty much wanting to reward 2nd place. But it's either you come out the champ or you don't. There is no 2nd place otherwise, props to the Miami Heat for accomplishing so much! I'm sure they are content having gone to the Finals twice in the last 3 years. Give them their rings.

Dominating the East doesn't mean you dominate the NBA especially when the West has been the stronger conference the entire time Lebron has been in the league.

I've never said Lebron is better than MJ. MJ is the GOAT, but the argument that its worse to lose in the finals than lose in the first or second round is quite dense.

Jimmy Butler is 0-2 in the finals, would've been better if he never made and kept is 0-0 record in tact, I guess huh and lost in the first round? Yea you guys are really on to something.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I hate using RAPM arguments, but...https://squared2020.com/author/squared2020/

MJ was on pace to be 5th in 85 as a rookie. He was on pace to be 1st in 88, 1st in 91, 1st in 96, and we know he was 1st in 97. Given Bulls won 67 games in 92, it's not a stretch to think he would've ended up 1st that year too. That's already more years finishing #1 than Lebron, and it doesn't even include some of MJ's best years (89, 90, 93). Lebron had years where he was outside the top 50. One of MJ's worst years (98), he was still 4th.

I've always maintained that as impressive as Lebron's 5 and 10 year RAPM samples are, they're likely not even close to MJ's - not the same z score. The only guy who compares and might even be better is Bill Russell, but we'll never get that sample.

I mean it depends on the RAPM sample you look at? There are various RAPM sources.

Per this estimated RAPM that, David Robinson the moment he stepped foot in the NBA was the NBA's plus-minus king

https://web.archive.org/web/20150218214051/http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

From 91 (often consider Jordan's peak) to 96 (last healthy year before major injury), David Robinson ranks #1 in RAPM. Jordan is not #1 during any stretch. I wouldn't take this 91-96 stretch as meaning Robinson was the absolute plus-minus king over Jordan, but rather just a footnote.

It only goes up to 2013, but Lebron is #1 in 09, 10, 12, and 13.

By this measure, Lebron is more of a standout if we want to go year by year.