Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[basketballRob]

Threads.net is Facebook's version of Twitter is up. I think they have a ways to go


https://www.threads.net/t/CuVdbX6P14V/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[basketballRob]

Woj already has 23k followers in a couple of hours

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

[eyriq]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

Here's the twist, provide the probability that the player is in the 9 man rotation. We are looking to win so ability is key, but also need to consider availability as well.

Here is my most likely 9 man rotation. Both rookies make it.

Franz 99%
Paolo 98%
Black 89%
WCJ 70%
Moritz 63%
Suggs 59%
Fultz 54%
Ingles 54%
Jett 42%
_____________________
_____________________
Goga 36%
Harris 35%
Cole 7%

The rest are not worth considering.







For example, Franz is an iron man & and if healthy has a rotation spot on lockdown. Played 98% of games last season. I'd estimate him at 99% probability to be in the rotation.

Paolo played in 88% of games & if healthy has a rotation spot on lockdown. I'd put his odds at 98%. I'm just a bit less sure about him than Franz but it's negligible.

I've got WCJ 3rd. He played in 70% of games last season, and that's kind of his M.O. If he plays he is in the rotation. I don't have any reason to up his availability so I'm sticking with 70% probability he's in the rotation.

Next on my ability ranking is Fultz. He played in 73% of games last season. He has a track record of being unavailable, so I'm penalizing him a bit, knocking him down to 60% probability that he's available. He's on an expiring and it isn't clear if he'll be traded. So if he's healthy I'd say there's a 90% chance he's in the rotation. So that's a 54% probability overall.

Going quicker, I've got 70% availability for Cole, 10% that he's on the rotation if available (50% odds he beats out Black, 80% odds he's traded), so 7% overall.

Suggs 65% availability, 90% rotation if available, total 59%.

Harris 59% availability, 60% rotation if available, total 35%.

Ingles 56% availability, 96% rotation if available, total 54%.

Black 99% availability, 90% in the rotation if available, total 89%.

Jett 85% availability, gets the bump to 95%, 44% in the rotation if available, total 42%.

Moritz 70% availability, 90% he's in the rotation if available, total 63%.

Goga is interesting, I want to say like 61% availability but I think it might be higher given we brought him back and he doesn't have an injury history. I'm going 90% availability. I'm going to say 40% he's in the rotation if available, total 36%.

[RookieStar]

Just to be safe, you gotta pencil wcj to be able to play under 60games. Dude gets injured everywhere from.ankle to eyes

[drsd]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

Here's the twist, provide the probability that the player is in the 9 man rotation. We are looking to win so ability is key, but also need to consider availability as well.

Here is my most likely 9 man rotation. Both rookies make it.

Franz 99%
Paolo 98%
Black 89%
WCJ 70%
Moritz 63%
Suggs 59%
Fultz 54%
Ingles 54%
Jett 42%
_____________________
_____________________
Goga 36%
Harris 35%
Cole 7%

The rest are not worth considering.

If G-Harris and Anthony are still Magicians, and Isaac is healthy, it is:


Fultz/Anthony/Black
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

That is, Orlando's "9-man" rotation on opening night is 11 players.

What makes sense for Orlando during the season would be to dump Anthony and G-Harris for this actual 9-man rotation for the play-ins/offs.

Fultz/Black
Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

[drsd]

Best graphic of the off-season!



LINK

Magic's biggest need: Figure out their point guard situation

[eyriq]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

Here's the twist, provide the probability that the player is in the 9 man rotation. We are looking to win so ability is key, but also need to consider availability as well.

Here is my most likely 9 man rotation. Both rookies make it.

Franz 99%
Paolo 98%
Black 89%
WCJ 70%
Moritz 63%
Suggs 59%
Fultz 54%
Ingles 54%
Jett 42%
_____________________
_____________________
Goga 36%
Harris 35%
Cole 7%

The rest are not worth considering.

If G-Harris and Anthony are still Magicians, and Isaac is healthy, it is:


Fultz/Anthony/Black
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

That is, Orlando's "9-man" rotation on opening night is 11 players.

What makes sense for Orlando during the season would be to dump Anthony and G-Harris for this actual 9-man rotation for the play-ins/offs.

Fultz/Black
Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

You didn't follow the rules. FAIL
also wrong in general.

[Knightro]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

You aren't going to want to hear this, but neither rookie is in it with the roster constructed the way it is

[eyriq]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

You aren't going to want to hear this, but neither rookie is in it with the roster constructed the way it is

Just offering a thought experiment allowing people to think critically about it. If you come to a different conclusion I'd love to see how you are thinking about it differently.

[Skybox]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

Here's the twist, provide the probability that the player is in the 9 man rotation. We are looking to win so ability is key, but also need to consider availability as well.

Here is my most likely 9 man rotation. Both rookies make it.

Franz 99%
Paolo 98%
Black 89%
WCJ 70%
Moritz 63%
Suggs 59%
Fultz 54%
Ingles 54%
Jett 42%
_____________________
_____________________
Goga 36%
Harris 35%
Cole 7%

The rest are not worth considering.

If G-Harris and Anthony are still Magicians, and Isaac is healthy, it is:


Fultz/Anthony/Black
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

That is, Orlando's "9-man" rotation on opening night is 11 players.

What makes sense for Orlando during the season would be to dump Anthony and G-Harris for this actual 9-man rotation for the play-ins/offs.

Fultz/Black
Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

No spot for the #11 pick in the draft...who (hopefully) directly addresses our most pressing need

[OrlChamps2030]

The 6th pick being third string at his natural position is frustrating. No way around it. I’m still hoping for a consolidation move but I don’t think it happens at this point

[drsd]

You didn't follow the rules. FAIL
also wrong in general.

If Orlando was playing a game fully healthy the team HAD TO win, this is the rotation:

Fultz/Anthony
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

[eyriq]

You didn't follow the rules. FAIL
also wrong in general.

If Orlando was playing a game fully healthy the team HAD TO win, this is the rotation:

Fultz/Anthony
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

The point is to be objective about availability and ability, factors that definitely impact rotations. Our guards struggle with availability, and for Cole and Harris, they struggle with ability as well. The rooks, especially Black, have better odds of being in the rotation as a result. This was as objective an approach as I could think up. If you want to disregard availability then I still disagree with you and Black is probably better than Cole straight up. Likely better, and likely healthier, so more likely to be in the rotation.

[AaronB]

Threads.net is Facebook's version of Twitter is up. I think they have a ways to go


https://www.threads.net/t/CuVdbX6P14V/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

I left Facebook a couple of years ago. Glad I did.

I joined Twitter about a year ago. Glad I did.

I also have Instagram, because it is how many schools communicate the extra curricular activities.

[Knightro]

The point is to be objective about availability and ability, factors that definitely impact rotations. Our guards struggle with availability, and for Cole and Harris, they struggle with ability as well. The rooks, especially Black, have better odds of being in the rotation as a result. This was as objective an approach as I could think up. If you want to disregard availability then I still disagree with you and Black is probably better than Cole straight up. Likely better, and likely healthier, so more likely to be in the rotation.

Cole was significantly better last year than you're giving him credit for.

[basketballRob]

Cole is trying to embrace the bald look again.

https://www.threads.net/t/CuXMK0Rs2lc/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==

[eyriq]

Another interesting topic that is speculative in nature; how do we finish better than one or more of the Pacers, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks, or Knicks?

I kinda feel like we are favorites for the 11th seed, and have to outperform one of those teams to make the play-in.

[JBSouthpaw]

Another interesting topic that is speculative in nature; how do we finish better than one or more of the Pacers, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks, or Knicks?

I kinda feel like we are favorites for the 11th seed, and have to outperform one of those teams to make the play-in.

I think we will finish better than Bulls&Raptors. Maybe ATL, they seem to be a bit of a dumpster fire.

[drsd]

You didn't follow the rules. FAIL
also wrong in general.

If Orlando was playing a game fully healthy the team HAD TO win, this is the rotation:

Fultz/Anthony
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

The point is to be objective about availability and ability, factors that definitely impact rotations. Our guards struggle with availability, and for Cole and Harris, they struggle with ability as well. The rooks, especially Black, have better odds of being in the rotation as a result. This was as objective an approach as I could think up. If you want to disregard availability then I still disagree with you and Black is probably better than Cole straight up. Likely better, and likely healthier, so more likely to be in the rotation.

If I was being objective, I would be SHOCKED if Anthony and G-Harris would be part of a Magic team come play-in time. And I cannot expect Isaac to play. So this is the rotation under a "reasonable expectations" type scenario:

Fultz/Black
someSG/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero
Carter/M-Wagner

Depending on who Mr. someSG is, Suggs might start over him, assuming he earned that right. I don't like that team to win a one-game series.

[eyriq]

If Orlando was playing a game fully healthy the team HAD TO win, this is the rotation:

Fultz/Anthony
G-Harris/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero/Isaac
Carter/M-Wagner

The point is to be objective about availability and ability, factors that definitely impact rotations. Our guards struggle with availability, and for Cole and Harris, they struggle with ability as well. The rooks, especially Black, have better odds of being in the rotation as a result. This was as objective an approach as I could think up. If you want to disregard availability then I still disagree with you and Black is probably better than Cole straight up. Likely better, and likely healthier, so more likely to be in the rotation.

If I was being objective, I would be SHOCKED if Anthony and G-Harris would be part of a Magic team come play-in time. And I cannot expect Isaac to play. So this is the rotation under a "reasonable expectations" type scenario:

Fultz/Black
someSG/Suggs
F-Wagner/Ingles
Banchero
Carter/M-Wagner

Depending on who Mr. someSG is, Suggs might start over him, assuming he earned that right. I don't like that team to win a one-game series.

Haha yeah, true, I saw Black third string initially and blacked out, but you did play along which I appreciate. Thank you!