Official Spec Thread: Regular Season

[eyriq]

Another interesting topic that is speculative in nature; how do we finish better than one or more of the Pacers, Raptors, Bulls, Hawks, or Knicks?

I kinda feel like we are favorites for the 11th seed, and have to outperform one of those teams to make the play-in.

I think we will finish better than Bulls&Raptors. Maybe ATL, they seem to be a bit of a dumpster fire.

Man, I love it. I think so too. Going to be a very competitive season.

[basketballRob]

I think Cole is close to an extension because he's roasting Weltman on Threads now.

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[Knightro]

I think Cole is close to an extension because he's roasting Weltman on Threads now.

I certainly wouldn't hate a Cole extension for the right price.

But then it would become even more imperative to move off Fultz as soon as possible.

[jezzerinho]

I think Cole is close to an extension because he's roasting Weltman on Threads now.

Sent from my SM-G781U using RealGM mobile app

Hope you're right.

[Knightro]

Black starting, Cole extended at a little more than the MLE and Fultz gone would be a perfectly fine outcome for this team in the long-term IMO.

[MAGICian619]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

Here's the twist, provide the probability that the player is in the 9 man rotation. We are looking to win so ability is key, but also need to consider availability as well.

Here is my most likely 9 man rotation. Both rookies make it.

Franz 99%
Paolo 98%
Black 89%
WCJ 70%
Moritz 63%
Suggs 59%
Fultz 54%
Ingles 54%
Jett 42%
_____________________
_____________________
Goga 36%
Harris 35%
Cole 7%

The rest are not worth considering.







For example, Franz is an iron man & and if healthy has a rotation spot on lockdown. Played 98% of games last season. I'd estimate him at 99% probability to be in the rotation.

Paolo played in 88% of games & if healthy has a rotation spot on lockdown. I'd put his odds at 98%. I'm just a bit less sure about him than Franz but it's negligible.

I've got WCJ 3rd. He played in 70% of games last season, and that's kind of his M.O. If he plays he is in the rotation. I don't have any reason to up his availability so I'm sticking with 70% probability he's in the rotation.

Next on my ability ranking is Fultz. He played in 73% of games last season. He has a track record of being unavailable, so I'm penalizing him a bit, knocking him down to 60% probability that he's available. He's on an expiring and it isn't clear if he'll be traded. So if he's healthy I'd say there's a 90% chance he's in the rotation. So that's a 54% probability overall.

Going quicker, I've got 70% availability for Cole, 10% that he's on the rotation if available (50% odds he beats out Black, 80% odds he's traded), so 7% overall.

Suggs 65% availability, 90% rotation if available, total 59%.

Harris 59% availability, 60% rotation if available, total 35%.

Ingles 56% availability, 96% rotation if available, total 54%.

Black 99% availability, 90% in the rotation if available, total 89%.

Jett 85% availability, gets the bump to 95%, 44% in the rotation if available, total 42%.

Moritz 70% availability, 90% he's in the rotation if available, total 63%.

Goga is interesting, I want to say like 61% availability but I think it might be higher given we brought him back and he doesn't have an injury history. I'm going 90% availability. I'm going to say 40% he's in the rotation if available, total 36%.

I went a little less heavy on the injury predictions and I refuse to give Franz and Paolo less than 100% because I'm not going to be the one to speak that into existence! Here is mine:

Franz 100%
Paolo 100%
Black 90%
WCJ 90%
Suggs 75%
Fultz 70%
Ingles 70%
Moritz 60%
Jett 55%
_____________________
_____________________
Cole 50%
Goga 20%
Harris 10%
Isaac 10%

[eyriq]

Who is in our 9 man rotation if we want to win the in-season tournament?

Here's the twist, provide the probability that the player is in the 9 man rotation. We are looking to win so ability is key, but also need to consider availability as well.

Here is my most likely 9 man rotation. Both rookies make it.

Franz 99%
Paolo 98%
Black 89%
WCJ 70%
Moritz 63%
Suggs 59%
Fultz 54%
Ingles 54%
Jett 42%
_____________________
_____________________
Goga 36%
Harris 35%
Cole 7%

The rest are not worth considering.







For example, Franz is an iron man & and if healthy has a rotation spot on lockdown. Played 98% of games last season. I'd estimate him at 99% probability to be in the rotation.

Paolo played in 88% of games & if healthy has a rotation spot on lockdown. I'd put his odds at 98%. I'm just a bit less sure about him than Franz but it's negligible.

I've got WCJ 3rd. He played in 70% of games last season, and that's kind of his M.O. If he plays he is in the rotation. I don't have any reason to up his availability so I'm sticking with 70% probability he's in the rotation.

Next on my ability ranking is Fultz. He played in 73% of games last season. He has a track record of being unavailable, so I'm penalizing him a bit, knocking him down to 60% probability that he's available. He's on an expiring and it isn't clear if he'll be traded. So if he's healthy I'd say there's a 90% chance he's in the rotation. So that's a 54% probability overall.

Going quicker, I've got 70% availability for Cole, 10% that he's on the rotation if available (50% odds he beats out Black, 80% odds he's traded), so 7% overall.

Suggs 65% availability, 90% rotation if available, total 59%.

Harris 59% availability, 60% rotation if available, total 35%.

Ingles 56% availability, 96% rotation if available, total 54%.

Black 99% availability, 90% in the rotation if available, total 89%.

Jett 85% availability, gets the bump to 95%, 44% in the rotation if available, total 42%.

Moritz 70% availability, 90% he's in the rotation if available, total 63%.

Goga is interesting, I want to say like 61% availability but I think it might be higher given we brought him back and he doesn't have an injury history. I'm going 90% availability. I'm going to say 40% he's in the rotation if available, total 36%.

I went a little less heavy on the injury predictions and I refuse to give Franz and Paolo less than 100% because I'm not going to be the one to speak that into existence! Here is mine:

Franz 100%
Paolo 100%
Black 90%
WCJ 90%
Suggs 75%
Fultz 70%
Ingles 70%
Moritz 60%
Jett 55%
_____________________
_____________________
Cole 50%
Goga 20%
Harris 10%
Isaac 10%

Beautiful. I love that we arrived at the same rotation. Really interesting.

[eyriq]

Black starting, Cole extended at a little more than the MLE and Fultz gone would be a perfectly fine outcome for this team in the long-term IMO.

I'm afraid an extension will freak me out a bit.

[Knightro]

Cole had some of the most severe splits in wins and losses of all the regular rotation players last year.

In wins: 14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.3 APG on a .634 TS%
In losses: 11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.6 APG on a .516 TS%

Gary Harris also had very severe splits. When he made shots, the Magic typically won.

Fultz actually had reverse splits and played better in losses than wins.

[Knightro]

I'm afraid an extension will freak me out a bit.

It would obviously bother me a lot if Cole got an extension and Fultz also got extended.

That would be the nightmare scenario.

But extending Cole and moving on from Fultz would ultimately be fine.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

I'm afraid an extension will freak me out a bit.

It would obviously bother me a lot if Cole got an extension and Fultz also got extended.

That would be the nightmare scenario.

But extending Cole and moving on from Fultz would ultimately be fine.

if they both get an extension then that would be cherry on top that this FO is clueless.

[eyriq]

Cole had some of the most severe splits in wins and losses of all the regular rotation players last year.

In wins: 14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.3 APG on a .634 TS%
In losses: 11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.6 APG on a .516 TS%

Gary Harris also had very severe splits. When he made shots, the Magic typically won.

Fultz actually had reverse splits and played better in losses than wins.

I think I understand where you are coming from with Cole. The problem is that exactly what you value, his proven value in a role, is exactly what I think makes him expendable.

[JoshuaPotter]

Cole had some of the most severe splits in wins and losses of all the regular rotation players last year.

In wins: 14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.3 APG on a .634 TS%
In losses: 11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.6 APG on a .516 TS%

Gary Harris also had very severe splits. When he made shots, the Magic typically won.

Fultz actually had reverse splits and played better in losses than wins.

I think I understand where you are coming from with Cole. The problem is that exactly what you value, his proven value in a role, is exactly what I think makes him expendable.

I like your words.

Now give me the longer version.

[RookieStar]

Black starting, Cole extended at a little more than the MLE and Fultz gone would be a perfectly fine outcome for this team in the long-term IMO.

Yes... but that is next season dream scenario I think. No way with the success we had last season would I want to take a stepback by throwing a rookie PG through the fire especially since I want to make Paolo and Franz happy.

[eyriq]

Cole had some of the most severe splits in wins and losses of all the regular rotation players last year.

In wins: 14.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 4.3 APG on a .634 TS%
In losses: 11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.6 APG on a .516 TS%

Gary Harris also had very severe splits. When he made shots, the Magic typically won.

Fultz actually had reverse splits and played better in losses than wins.

I think I understand where you are coming from with Cole. The problem is that exactly what you value, his proven value in a role, is exactly what I think makes him expendable.

I like your words.

Now give me the longer version.

For me it comes down to team building strategy and where we are in the rebuild. I think that we are in the player development and evaluation stage, primarily looking to develop rising stars. So, we'd value players for whom we have less information on but are perceived to have a high ceiling over players that we have more information on but are perceived to have a low ceiling.

I put Cole firmly in the more information \ low ceiling group. I don't think its worth having him available as a potential blocker over Black as a result.

[JoshuaPotter]

I think I understand where you are coming from with Cole. The problem is that exactly what you value, his proven value in a role, is exactly what I think makes him expendable.

I like your words.

Now give me the longer version.

For me it comes down to team building strategy and where we are in the rebuild. I think that we are in the player development and evaluation stage, primarily looking to develop rising stars. So, we'd value players for whom we have less information on but are perceived to have a high ceiling over players that we have more information on but are perceived to have a low ceiling.

I put Cole firmly in the more information \ low ceiling group. I don't think its worth having him available as a potential blocker over Black as a result.

I think that is an interesting way to view it.

My rebuttable thought. Not disagreeing with you. Is that price wise, we can't sign everyone to big bucks. So getting a 15th round pick and turning into a 6th candidate investment is excellent.

The question is, is that the rotational position you want your sixth man from?

In an ideal planet our 3 years from now 8 man playoff roster would be.....

PG Black
SG Suggs
C WCJ
F F Wagner
F Paulo

bench:
Cole Anthony (as "G")
M Wagner (As PF/C)
Jett Howard (as G/F)

Assuming that we are keeping all of our draft picks in / Black / Suggs / Paulo / Wagner / Cole / Jett also sounds pretty pricey.

Is that what you are getting at?

Also if Black and Jett pan out like that, i'm pretty happy to see where that team could go.

[eyriq]

I like your words.

Now give me the longer version.

For me it comes down to team building strategy and where we are in the rebuild. I think that we are in the player development and evaluation stage, primarily looking to develop rising stars. So, we'd value players for whom we have less information on but are perceived to have a high ceiling over players that we have more information on but are perceived to have a low ceiling.

I put Cole firmly in the more information \ low ceiling group. I don't think its worth having him available as a potential blocker over Black as a result.

I think that is an interesting way to view it.

My rebuttable thought. Not disagreeing with you. Is that price wise, we can't sign everyone to big bucks. So getting a 15th round pick and turning into a 6th candidate investment is excellent.

The question is, is that the rotational position you want your sixth man from?

In an ideal planet our 3 years from now 8 man playoff roster would be.....

PG Black
SG Suggs
C WCJ
F F Wagner
F Paulo

bench:
Cole Anthony (as "G")
M Wagner (As PF/C)
Jett Howard (as G/F)

Assuming that we are keeping all of our draft picks in / Black / Suggs / Paulo / Wagner / Cole / Jett also sounds pretty pricey.

Is that what you are getting at?

Also if Black and Jett pan out like that, i'm pretty happy to see where that team could go.

Hmm, good point. One thing that stands out to me is that on average 40% of a rotation turns over each year, and after 3 years you have like 2-3 players and otherwise all fresh faces. So my hope is that we can identify a core of 3-4 star to quality starter caliber players and then add complimentary pieces around them via trades and free agency. Cole is not one of those stars or quality starters IMO.

[Knightro]

If my choices are...

Cole Anthony for 15M AAV to be Anthony Black's backup or Markelle Fultz for 20M AAV to be Anthony Black's backup, I know which choice I'm making.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

If my choices are...

Cole Anthony for 15M AAV to be Anthony Black's backup or Markelle Fultz for 20M AAV to be Anthony Black's backup, I know which choice I'm making.

absolutely that's such an easy decsion.

[yoyojw17]

If my choices are...

Cole Anthony for 15M AAV to be Anthony Black's backup or Markelle Fultz for 20M AAV to be Anthony Black's backup, I know which choice I'm making.

absolutely that's such an easy decsion.

It is ...




.... Fultz at 20 milly lol

annnnnd to a certain degree.... i still wouldn't mind... because fultz would kill it on the bench. assuming he got bumped in the first place.