Nikola Vucevic ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Rating Last Year

[PJSteven22]

He’s in the 19th percentile according to EPM.

[Wingy]

Vuc has been the least of the Bulls problem IMO. The main bad thing involving him is the Bulls should have negotiated harder to make their 2023 pick Orlando got lotto protected.

In an alternate world, where the Bulls got top 8, declining protection on both picks (similar to DeMar protection), we would have drafted Wagner at #7, then given them the pick that was Terry, drafted #11 this year, and given them whatever pick we early this upcoming season instead (likely worse than #11).

The Bulls future would look a heck of a lot better then.

You could also say if we had good success the first year and gave up pick #20 then cratered in year 2 and kept a quality pick, then had a good year in year 3 to give them a lousy pick again too.

I think the Bulls will make the playoffs this year (probably around 6-7 seed) and if so, we will have made twice and missed twice and had the very unfortunate outcome of giving away all the good picks and keeping the bad ones.

But what if we landed Kuminga?

Yeah, it’s an odd assumption given we had Pat and still needed to figure out Lauri at that point. Davion Mitchell feels like a very Bulls player. A good one, but not a guy who’s moving the needle.

Plus Zach could’ve walked or been traded for little value. We’d be in the position of needing to nail a bunch of picks.

[FriedRise]

Read on Twitter

[Repeat 3-peat]

In an alternate world, where the Bulls got top 8, declining protection on both picks (similar to DeMar protection), we would have drafted Wagner at #7, then given them the pick that was Terry, drafted #11 this year, and given them whatever pick we early this upcoming season instead (likely worse than #11).

The Bulls future would look a heck of a lot better then.

You could also say if we had good success the first year and gave up pick #20 then cratered in year 2 and kept a quality pick, then had a good year in year 3 to give them a lousy pick again too.

I think the Bulls will make the playoffs this year (probably around 6-7 seed) and if so, we will have made twice and missed twice and had the very unfortunate outcome of giving away all the good picks and keeping the bad ones.

But what if we landed Kuminga?

Yeah, it’s an odd assumption given we had Pat and still needed to figure out Lauri at that point. Davion Mitchell feels like a very Bulls player. A good one, but not a guy who’s moving the needle.

Plus Zach could’ve walked or been traded for little value. We’d be in the position of needing to nail a bunch of picks.

Suggs would have likely been the pick. OKC and Warriors being locked in on Giddey and Kuminga opened the door for Orlando to get Suggs and wait for Wagner.

[Stratmaster]

Don't shoot the messenger but Vuc ranked in the Top 10 in the NBA in defensive rating last year:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2023-nba-individual-defensive-rating-rankings

Now before the hot takes about that stat being meaningless, look at the guys up and down that list and take your Vuc bias away. That stat seems to me to be pretty accurate based on how good defensively the rest of the guys are surrounding him. I think the biggest reason Vuc gets so much hate on defense is because he doesn't block shots, but that is the most overrated defensive stat in the new age of 3's being launched all over the place.

Defensive rebounding is a much more important stat than blocks, because it ENDS a possession. Even blocks don't necessarily do that. Vuc is an ELITE defensive rebounder (top 5 last year), which is why he rates out as a much better defender than anyone gives him credit for. Bulls were Top 5 in defensive rating last year as well, so adding 2 tough 3&D guys should enable us to be at the top of the league defensively this year again.

Before this thread gets all crazy, I want to go on record as saying that Vuc’s rep as a poor defender has always been a bit overblown to me. There are clearly times where he could/should be better. But he is nowhere near as bad as he is often made out to be on this board. Now, let the bashing commence!!

Agreed. Same with Lavine (although Zach is bad on help defense).

[Stratmaster]

That reference has a pretty ridiculous minimum 2000 minutes to qualify for that ranking. To put it in context, Vuc was actually tied for 5th/6th on our team, including being soundly beat by both Drummond and Tony Bradley. Vuc was 37th in the league overall in this stat. Fun fact, Andre Drummond was #1 in the NBA in defensive rating for players who played at least 125 minutes on the season.

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

[dougthonus]

That reference has a pretty ridiculous minimum 2000 minutes to qualify for that ranking. To put it in context, Vuc was actually tied for 5th/6th on our team, including being soundly beat by both Drummond and Tony Bradley. Vuc was 37th in the league overall in this stat. Fun fact, Andre Drummond was #1 in the NBA in defensive rating for players who played at least 125 minutes on the season.

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

Who cares how it affects Vuc's rank? I could make a stat called Doug's Defensive Rating, where I just roll a 100 sided dice and it comes up with a number, and that is your rating and it'd be about as meaningful as DRTG, then we could argue how many minutes people need to play to have a valid number.

All you have to do is watch the game and you quickly get a feel for how bad Vuc is on defense, all the numbers being thrown out just go to show you how god awful the NBA is at public defensive metrics.

[Stratmaster]

That reference has a pretty ridiculous minimum 2000 minutes to qualify for that ranking. To put it in context, Vuc was actually tied for 5th/6th on our team, including being soundly beat by both Drummond and Tony Bradley. Vuc was 37th in the league overall in this stat. Fun fact, Andre Drummond was #1 in the NBA in defensive rating for players who played at least 125 minutes on the season.

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

Who cares how it affects Vuc's rank? I could make a stat called Doug's Defensive Rating, where I just roll a 100 sided dice and it comes up with a number, and that is your rating and it'd be about as meaningful as DRTG, then we could argue how many minutes people need to play to have a valid number.

All you have to do is watch the game and you quickly get a feel for how bad Vuc is on defense, all the numbers being thrown out just go to show you how god awful the NBA is at public defensive metrics.

Another internet trait.

Numbers don't mean anything. Until they support my position.

So you and I can agree that all these individual on/off and plus/minus stats are meaningless, correct?

Vuc is a better than average, or a slightly worse than average defender at his position depending on if you consider defensive rebounding a part of defense. If someone doesn't consider defensive rebounding a part of defense based on "someone else would get the rebound" their assessment probably is about as meaningful as the DRTG stat.

[League Circles]

That reference has a pretty ridiculous minimum 2000 minutes to qualify for that ranking. To put it in context, Vuc was actually tied for 5th/6th on our team, including being soundly beat by both Drummond and Tony Bradley. Vuc was 37th in the league overall in this stat. Fun fact, Andre Drummond was #1 in the NBA in defensive rating for players who played at least 125 minutes on the season.

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

Well Drummond actually played 849 minutes, and there were like 2 or 3 players in the league who had a better defensive rating than him, but I think the high minutes for any of them was 124. That's the context. Defensive rating, now that I understand what it is, is a garbage stat anyways.

[League Circles]

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

Who cares how it affects Vuc's rank? I could make a stat called Doug's Defensive Rating, where I just roll a 100 sided dice and it comes up with a number, and that is your rating and it'd be about as meaningful as DRTG, then we could argue how many minutes people need to play to have a valid number.

All you have to do is watch the game and you quickly get a feel for how bad Vuc is on defense, all the numbers being thrown out just go to show you how god awful the NBA is at public defensive metrics.

Another internet trait.

Numbers don't mean anything. Until they support my position.

So you and I can agree that all these individual on/off and plus/minus stats are meaningless, correct?

Vuc is a better than average, or a slightly worse than average defender at his position depending on if you consider defensive rebounding a part of defense. If someone doesn't consider defensive rebounding a part of defense based on "someone else would get the rebound" their assessment probably is about as meaningful as the DRTG stat.

On/off is different, and better, than defensive rating. It at least alludes to an objectively measurable truth that matters as half the game. Individual defensive rating is basically about as meaningful as a "happiness index".

Everyone knows Vuc is a strong defensive rebounder and everyone believes he's a poor defender despite it, amd despite the fact that that trait is in fact part of good defense. Very, very similar to Carlos Boozer in that regard. He's absolutely atrocious at challenging shots. At least he doesn't foul much.

[dougthonus]

Another internet trait.

Numbers don't mean anything. Until they support my position.

Defensive rating has never meant anything.

So you and I can agree that all these individual on/off and plus/minus stats are meaningless, correct?

Generally, I don't put a lot of faith in these numbers, I think they have a high margin for error. Vuc's numbers are bad enough the reach extreme outlier status though. He's among the worst in the league in all these types of metrics, and it's by a large enough margin that I think it is worth investigating if there is a contextual reason for it that makes you say "yeah, nevermind".

I think a lot of stats are like that. I don't think any stats are really meaningful enough to compare guys in very similar ranges, but if a stat has any reasonability, the outliers are interesting. +/- stats often don't show total quality of a player IMO, but they show how well that player is resolving an individual team need, like when David West had this amazing impact stats for Golden State, I didn't think David West was a stud, but it showed how much they needed someone that could do the things he did and how well he fit in their lineup.

Vuc being absolutely abysmal doesn't necessarily mean he's abysmal (though I think that anyway), but it does show how god awful he fits in with the players we have on our roster at a minimum.

Vuc is a better than average, or a slightly worse than average defender at his position depending on if you consider defensive rebounding a part of defense. If someone doesn't consider defensive rebounding a part of defense based on "someone else would get the rebound" their assessment probably is about as meaningful as the DRTG stat.

I'd say Vuc is objectively one of the absolute worst defenders in the league at his position, defensive rebounding counted or not. He is a good defensive rebounder, but also largely at the expense of providing any shot blocking or deterrence at the rim. He removes all optionality in what you can do defensively and puts extreme pressure on his teammates.

I don't think Vuc is even a MLE caliber player, and I think if we played a combination of Bradley, Drummond, and DJJ 100% of the minutes instead of Vuc last year that we probably have been the same or better. The things Vuc is good at aren't moving us forward with a combination of DeMar and Zach on the team. In a different scenario where the offense focused around him, then maybe he could help more, but he's not good enough to be that player either, and we don't have the right teammates to play that style of basketball even if he was.

And btw, I believe I still owe you a pizza, so we can argue about Vuc over that

[superdave]

Read on Twitter

Also read somewhere that Vooch gets around 2 pass deflections per game. Iso defense, defensive rebounding, deflections are a strength of Vooch's game. I get that the Bulls overpaid to acquire this dude and also that his body language sucks... but he really gets the Jay Cutler treatment on this board.

[chefo]

The only C to give up more points in the paint and restricted area than Vuc, in the entire NBA, was Sabonis. Who, just like Vuc, also happened to get targeted on D because both were also bottom third or quarter (by memory) in FG% against and contests. It's not a conspiracy trying to make Vuc look bad--teams made it a point to drive against the Bulls, which was why the Bulls' G's being able to stay in front of people, fight through screens and rotate on point was immensely important to how the team looked on D.

As has been discussed--it's not a unique drawback of Vuc, per say, but his inability to protect the rim really limits what kind of players he can have around him and how you have to play D as a team to mitigate his impact.

[GoBlue72391]

Read on Twitter

The thing with that is, I don't really care how good my C is at defending in isolation. I care about how good he is at protecting the rim, deterring drives to the basket, rotating and helping in a timely manner, etc. I mean hey that's good, but that's not a primary concern of a C.

[superdave]

The only C to give up more points in the paint and restricted area than Vuc, in the entire NBA, was Sabonis. Who, just like Vuc, also happened to get targeted on D because both were also bottom third or quarter (by memory) in FG% against and contests. It's not a conspiracy trying to make Vuc look bad--teams made it a point to drive against the Bulls, which was why the Bulls' G's being able to stay in front of people, fight through screens and rotate on point was immensely important to how the team looked on D.

As has been discussed--it's not a unique drawback of Vuc, per say, but his inability to protect the rim really limits what kind of players he can have around him and how you have to play D as a team to mitigate his impact.

That's a bit of a leaky individual stat. In 22-23, the Bulls were 4th best in opponent points per game in the paint, behind NYC, MIA, Cleveland.

[chefo]

The only C to give up more points in the paint and restricted area than Vuc, in the entire NBA, was Sabonis. Who, just like Vuc, also happened to get targeted on D because both were also bottom third or quarter (by memory) in FG% against and contests. It's not a conspiracy trying to make Vuc look bad--teams made it a point to drive against the Bulls, which was why the Bulls' G's being able to stay in front of people, fight through screens and rotate on point was immensely important to how the team looked on D.

As has been discussed--it's not a unique drawback of Vuc, per say, but his inability to protect the rim really limits what kind of players he can have around him and how you have to play D as a team to mitigate his impact.

That's a bit of a leaky individual stat. In 22-23, the Bulls were 4th best in opponent points per game in the paint, behind NYC, MIA, Cleveland.

I don't think so. PPT/G in the paint is a team stat. A lot goes into that, like discussed above.

On the other hand, the NBA counted how many attempts at the rim were tried with Vuc being the defender on the attempt (> 1,500), and what percentage were successful (68%). The really good rim defenders have FG% against in the 60%-63% range (guys like Mobley, Allen, Gobert, Kessler, Turner, Lopez); the bad ones are in the Vuc range and higher (68%+) and there are a lot in between. Vuc is not the worst, but he's nowhere near good and is fairly unique when you factor in the high volume of attempts (highest in the league) intersected with high FG% against.

How big is the difference at 1.5k attempts per season if you compare, say Kessler and Vuc? 8% lower at 1.5k attempts is 120 less makes, or 240 less points... or 3 points/game give or take. Which makes you a 50-win team in terms of net differential, all else held equal (in this case offense manufactured at the same efficiency).

The one thing Vuc is actually decent at is standing tall in the paint if you stop and try to float it over him. That was his saving grace in Orlando and is also why he's a good defensive rebounder. Unfortunately, these days that's not a high volume shot attempt.

[Stratmaster]

That reference has a pretty ridiculous minimum 2000 minutes to qualify for that ranking. To put it in context, Vuc was actually tied for 5th/6th on our team, including being soundly beat by both Drummond and Tony Bradley. Vuc was 37th in the league overall in this stat. Fun fact, Andre Drummond was #1 in the NBA in defensive rating for players who played at least 125 minutes on the season.

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

Well Drummond actually played 849 minutes, and there were like 2 or 3 players in the league who had a better defensive rating than him, but I think the high minutes for any of them was 124. That's the context. Defensive rating, now that I understand what it is, is a garbage stat anyways.

I didn't say anything about Drummond.

[Stratmaster]

Who cares how it affects Vuc's rank? I could make a stat called Doug's Defensive Rating, where I just roll a 100 sided dice and it comes up with a number, and that is your rating and it'd be about as meaningful as DRTG, then we could argue how many minutes people need to play to have a valid number.

All you have to do is watch the game and you quickly get a feel for how bad Vuc is on defense, all the numbers being thrown out just go to show you how god awful the NBA is at public defensive metrics.

Another internet trait.

Numbers don't mean anything. Until they support my position.

So you and I can agree that all these individual on/off and plus/minus stats are meaningless, correct?

Vuc is a better than average, or a slightly worse than average defender at his position depending on if you consider defensive rebounding a part of defense. If someone doesn't consider defensive rebounding a part of defense based on "someone else would get the rebound" their assessment probably is about as meaningful as the DRTG stat.

On/off is different, and better, than defensive rating. It at least alludes to an objectively measurable truth that matters as half the game. Individual defensive rating is basically about as meaningful as a "happiness index".

Everyone knows Vuc is a strong defensive rebounder and everyone believes he's a poor defender despite it, amd despite the fact that that trait is in fact part of good defense. Very, very similar to Carlos Boozer in that regard. He's absolutely atrocious at challenging shots. At least he doesn't foul much.

On off is off value looking at 5 man units. It's a meaningless as DRTG for addressing individual play.

[MikeDC]

That reference has a pretty ridiculous minimum 2000 minutes to qualify for that ranking. To put it in context, Vuc was actually tied for 5th/6th on our team, including being soundly beat by both Drummond and Tony Bradley. Vuc was 37th in the league overall in this stat. Fun fact, Andre Drummond was #1 in the NBA in defensive rating for players who played at least 125 minutes on the season.

2000 minutes is a ridiculous minimum but 125 is sensible? And you're using Tony Bradley as a comparison?

If we want to make poor comparisons we should mention Vuc ranked better than Jimmy Butler :l

I think a reasonable number would be 1500, which would include 192 players. IDK how that would affect Vuc's rank.

Who cares how it affects Vuc's rank? I could make a stat called Doug's Defensive Rating, where I just roll a 100 sided dice and it comes up with a number, and that is your rating and it'd be about as meaningful as DRTG, then we could argue how many minutes people need to play to have a valid number.

All you have to do is watch the game and you quickly get a feel for how bad Vuc is on defense, all the numbers being thrown out just go to show you how god awful the NBA is at public defensive metrics.

The NBA has very good public defensive metrics. It's just that nobody uses them because they're newish and because they won't confirm people's talking points.

The NBA lists 33 "starter" centers who played at least 40 games.
Vuc was 32nd in defensive field goal percentage. He allowed 52.8% on 17 attempts at him per game.
He was also 32nd in defensive field goal percentage on shots within 6 feet of the basket (protecting the rim). He allowed 66.9% on a relatively high number of attempts: 7.7 per game. If I had time to convert that to per36, it would still be high.

You can dig a little deeper, but it doesn't change the bottom line that he's really bad.

[Stratmaster]

Another internet trait.

Numbers don't mean anything. Until they support my position.

Defensive rating has never meant anything.

So you and I can agree that all these individual on/off and plus/minus stats are meaningless, correct?

Generally, I don't put a lot of faith in these numbers, I think they have a high margin for error. Vuc's numbers are bad enough the reach extreme outlier status though. He's among the worst in the league in all these types of metrics, and it's by a large enough margin that I think it is worth investigating if there is a contextual reason for it that makes you say "yeah, nevermind".

I think a lot of stats are like that. I don't think any stats are really meaningful enough to compare guys in very similar ranges, but if a stat has any reasonability, the outliers are interesting. +/- stats often don't show total quality of a player IMO, but they show how well that player is resolving an individual team need, like when David West had this amazing impact stats for Golden State, I didn't think David West was a stud, but it showed how much they needed someone that could do the things he did and how well he fit in their lineup.

Vuc being absolutely abysmal doesn't necessarily mean he's abysmal (though I think that anyway), but it does show how god awful he fits in with the players we have on our roster at a minimum.

Vuc is a better than average, or a slightly worse than average defender at his position depending on if you consider defensive rebounding a part of defense. If someone doesn't consider defensive rebounding a part of defense based on "someone else would get the rebound" their assessment probably is about as meaningful as the DRTG stat.

I'd say Vuc is objectively one of the absolute worst defenders in the league at his position, defensive rebounding counted or not. He is a good defensive rebounder, but also largely at the expense of providing any shot blocking or deterrence at the rim. He removes all optionality in what you can do defensively and puts extreme pressure on his teammates.

I don't think Vuc is even a MLE caliber player, and I think if we played a combination of Bradley, Drummond, and DJJ 100% of the minutes instead of Vuc last year that we probably have been the same or better. The things Vuc is good at aren't moving us forward with a combination of DeMar and Zach on the team. In a different scenario where the offense focused around him, then maybe he could help more, but he's not good enough to be that player either, and we don't have the right teammates to play that style of basketball even if he was.

And btw, I believe I still owe you a pizza, so we can argue about Vuc over that

How many centers do you see who are with more than the MLE? Because there really isn't much argument anywhere but on here that he isn't one of the top 15 centers in the league.

Is that value based on you thinking he's not even starter quality? Or that starter quality centers aren't important?

And please done encourage others by mentioning Bradley and DJJ at center in the same breath as Vuc.

I like you owing me so I'm stringing the pizza thing along. Seriously, been really busy on the music front, and at my age it wears me out. In Memphis right now and then have shows every weekend in August...but we will make it happen! Maybe right before the season starts so I can tell you why the Bulls will win the East and you can tell me why they will get knocked out in the first round and forever be in basketball hell.