Historically: Dwyane Wade vs Moses Malone

[durantbird]

Who are you putting higher in your all time list, considering all factors including peak, prime, longevity, accomplishments?

[LukaTheGOAT]

I'll go Wade. I think he peaked higher and had a better prime. I think where a majority of guys get the bulk of their championship value is during their primes, so I will analyze that.

While prefacing with my belief that I have a strong leaning toward PS play, I will go Wade. I think both had inconsistencies in their prime because injury/unknown factors, but at their peak they very possibly were the best the league had to offer.


From 05-13,

Wade in the PS averaged an IA 26.8 pts per 75 on rTS% of 3.4%. Created about 7.4 shots per 100 possessions and Passer Rating of 5.7. 4704 Minutes Played

ScoreVal: 1.1

PlayVal: +0.5


One-Number Metrics

Backpicks BPM-5.5

PER-23.9

WS/48-.179

BPM-6.7


Moses in the PS (79-87) averaged an IA 23.2 pts per 75 on rTS% of 1.9%. Created about 1.6 shots per 100 possessions and Passer Rating of 2.2. 2799 Minutes Played

ScoreVal: 1.3

PlayVal: -0.8

One-Number Metrics

Backpicks BPM-2.9

PER-22.2

WS/48-.179

BPM-3.5


When I look at this, one of the first things I note is that despite how what the per possessions scoring might tell you, according to ScoreVal, Moses might have an argument as a better scorer during this period. When you consider that ScoreVal takes in account a litany of factors, I believe the metric is likely very high on Moses' GOAT-level offensive rebounding, as well as the fact that Moses doesn't need to use up as many possessions as Wade to put up his numbers. Moses can go and get a rebound. Plus, there is less likelihood in Moses turning the ball over, in conducting his scoring game, which is a plus.

The converse is, that per PlayVal, Moses might be the worst playmaker of any superstar bigman we have seen...perhaps the same level as passer/playmaker as a Dwight Howard. With this, he isn't puncturing the defense in certain ways, and I believe the way you would ideally guard him is straightforward, although not easy. I do think Moses has underrated interior gravity, because you likely want to send 2 bodies his way to stop him from getting a rebound, which can open opportunities for teammates. However, I feel most confident in siding with Wade here.

I actually do believe the general box-score can pick up a decent amount of what both of these guys do. With Moses scoring and all-around rebounding, and with Wade ball-dominant scoring and playmaking, along with being an active off-ball defender who can get into passing lanes. Generally, it does seem as if the box-score would lean Wade's way.

A contentious point here, might be that I am not necessarily sold on the idea that Moses was a much better defender then Wade. A steal is arguably the singe most valuable defensive play, because it ends a possession and can lead to easy points the other way. Wade got a lot of these, while being a solid man defender, and pseudo rim-protector. The thing is, for me to go with Moses over Wade, I would have to believe that Moses was handily better on defense than Wade. I don't, and even box-score estimates that you would imagine would strongly help Moses out here because of strong defensive rebounding, and decent block-rates, don't seem to be enough to edge Wade. Furthermore, from film, Wade seems more eager to get in position and help/is not as slow with rotations. Wade overall was lighter on his feet, and I think the group he covered on defense was a real value-add.

We do have some on/off data from Moses' time in Philly. His data is good but doesn't suggest to me that he was another tier of impact than Wade.

Moses in AuPM/G

83: 4.6
84: 1.2
85: 4.6
86: 1.5

Wade in AuPM/G

06: 5.5
07: 3.1
08: 0.2
09: 4.7
10: 4.2

Wade seems to hit higher peaks when he is healthy, and I suppose that is another reason I likely lean Wade. I think Wade at his best during this stretch was better.

[70sFan]

They are reasonably close, but I have Moses a few spots higher.

[No-more-rings]

A contentious point here, might be that I am not necessarily sold on the idea that Moses was a much better defender then Wade. A steal is arguably the singe most valuable defensive play, because it ends a possession and can lead to easy points the other way. Wade got a lot of these, while being a solid man defender, and pseudo rim-protector. The thing is, for me to go with Moses over Wade, I would have to believe that Moses was handily better on defense than Wade. I don't, and even box-score estimates that you would imagine would strongly help Moses out here because of strong defensive rebounding, and decent block-rates, don't seem to be enough to edge Wade. Furthermore, from film, Wade seems more eager to get in position and help/is not as slow with rotations. Wade overall was lighter on his feet, and I think the group he covered on defense was a real value-add.

Yeah this is something I was thinking about too. Wade imo is decisively better offensively, so for Moses to be better he’d need to be legitimate DPOY type caliber or at least an undeniably high impact defender which seems dubious. You can argue Moses as the better defender, especially at their peak but I don’t know what his argument offensively is. Much worse passer, and not clearly better as a scorer at all.

If someone goes Moses for longevity though that’s a reasonable but different argument.

[Cavsfansince84]

Yeah this is something I was thinking about too. Wade imo is decisively better offensively, so for Moses to be better he’d need to be legitimate DPOY type caliber or at least an undeniably high impact defender which seems dubious. You can argue Moses as the better defender, especially at their peak but I don’t know what his argument offensively is. Much worse passer, and not clearly better as a scorer at all.

If someone goes Moses for longevity though that’s a reasonable but different argument.

The one thing missing here I would say is the value of being a goat level off rebounder and I also think its notable that as a scorer Moses had 9 seasons with ts add over 100 and 2 over 200(granted one in the aba) while Wade had 5 over 100 and topped out at 148. Moses also had a much higher career ftr(.572 to .424) and was a slightly better ft shooter. So I think there is an argument for Moses as a scorer as well. Especially past the age of about 30.

[No-more-rings]

Yeah this is something I was thinking about too. Wade imo is decisively better offensively, so for Moses to be better he’d need to be legitimate DPOY type caliber or at least an undeniably high impact defender which seems dubious. You can argue Moses as the better defender, especially at their peak but I don’t know what his argument offensively is. Much worse passer, and not clearly better as a scorer at all.

If someone goes Moses for longevity though that’s a reasonable but different argument.

The one thing missing here I would say is the value of being a goat level off rebounder and I also think its notable that as a scorer Moses had 9 seasons with ts add over 100 and 2 over 200(granted one in the aba) while Wade had 5 over 100 and topped out at 148. Moses also had a much higher career ftr(.572 to .424) and was a slightly better ft shooter. So I think there is an argument for Moses as a scorer as well. Especially past the age of about 30.

His offensive rebounding has value sure, but that’s basically offset by the fact he’s a negative passer and doesn’t create much for others. As for scoring, I don’t think it’s clear one way or another, but I also don’t believe ts% and it’s variations are everything. It doesn’t account for how you are guarded, how much you’re assisted, the amount of pressure you put on defenses etc. I’m not a Moses expert, but I don’t think him being better in rts% or ts add makes him automatically better as a scorer. I think it’s hard to even compare them given different roles, different team structures and obviously much different eras.

[Cavsfansince84]

His offensive rebounding has value sure, but that’s basically offset by the fact he’s a negative passer and doesn’t create much for others. As for scoring, I don’t think it’s clear one way or another, but I also don’t believe ts% and it’s variations are everything. It doesn’t account for how you are guarded, how much you’re assisted, the amount of pressure you put on defenses etc. I’m not a Moses expert, but I don’t think him being better in rts% or ts add makes him automatically better as a scorer. I think it’s hard to even compare them given different roles, different team structures and obviously much different eras.

Well I think it gives credence to him being a better scorer in his era. Which is to me the best way to compare players from different eras. Not that you have to agree but Moses didn't really need much help to score either. He is easily among the most skilled centers of all time imo.