2025 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread - Andrew Fischer - FRP

[wichmae]

Brewers profile though. Spin rate dream.

[Thunder Muscle]

Seems pretty intriguing. Hopefully stats healthy, prep pitchers always worry me.

[ReasonablySober]

Law

Knoth is a Mississippi commit with huge spin rates on his breaking ball and a fastball up to 95 mph who had scouts racing — well, crawling — down the Long Island Expressway to see him this spring. He’s one of the youngest pitchers in the class, turning 18 about a month after the draft. His fastball shows good ride up at the top of the zone, and the curveball is a hammer with very tight rotation, two-plane break and a ton of depth to it. There’s effort to the delivery, with his arm a touch late and some head-whack at release, and he hasn’t shown much of a third pitch so far. Teams that value the advanced pitch metrics like spin rate and axis will love him, and there’s still some projection left here, although the delivery and below-average control make him a longer-term play and may limit his ceiling.

I said Knoth was someone that teams that value pitch metrics would love, and the Brewers are one of those. He's got ride on the fastball and spin on the curveball, but the delivery isn't great and he needs a third pitch. It's a little like their second pick last year, Jacob Misiorowski, who just hit 102 in the Futures Game on Saturday — tremendous fastball, plus-plus slider, bad delivery, not sure if he can start — although Knoth is still 17 years old and has a lot more time to work on smoothing out the delivery and finding a changeup of some sort. Also, Strong Island represent.

MLB

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

In 2009, Patchogue-Medford High School on Long Island, N.Y, produced a solid -- albeit undersized -- right-handed pitching prospect. He went on to Duke University and became a first-round pick of the Blue Jays three years later before developing into All-Star Marcus Stroman. There’s been only one other draftee from the school since then, in 2013, but as the weather warmed up in the Northeast, Knoth -- himself a slightly undersized righty -- looked like a good bet to break the schneid.

While Knoth is only 6-foot-1, he’s strong and athletic, reminding some evaluators of a young Lance McCullers with the way the ball comes out of his hand. He has a very quick arm with a fastball that has been clocked up to 96 mph, a tick up from last year, though it’s flat at times and can get hit. The real separator right now, though, is his absolutely nasty breaking ball. It’s a power curve that routinely tops 3,100 rpm and produces elite-level spin rates. He’ll flash a changeup at times, but it’s not a real weapon right now as his fastball-curve have been more than enough against high school competition.

Knoth tends to find the strike zone more often than not and should have average command and control in the future. There is some effort in the delivery, and that, along with him not showing any real changeup lately, does give him a little reliever risk. His strong outings this spring were bringing decision-makers in to see whether he was worth drafting early enough to sign him away from his Ole Miss commitment.

Fangraphs

Knoth has a lightning-fast arm that was only producing low-90s velocity throughout his showcase summer, but his drop-and-drive style delivery was incredibly athletic, his fastball was seasoned by riding life, and he was snapping off the best curveball in the class. Knoth's breaking ball is the Grim Reaper, an absolute yakker in the 78-80 mph range with huge downward break. He experienced a velocity boost in the spring of 2023 and moved from the early second round of the FanGraphs draft board into the first. Knoth doesn't have prototypical starter's size but he's a superlative on-mound athlete with mechanics that are as repeatable as they are electric. You can go nuts projecting on his changeup and a second breaking ball because of his arm speed and proclivity for spin. This is also a cold weather prospect who will still be 17 on draft day. Knoth's mix already looks like that of a premium reliever and he may just be scratching the surface of his ability.

BA

BA Grade:55/Extreme
Tools:Fastball: 55. Slider: 65. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 45. Control: 55.

Knoth entered 2023 with plenty of projection arrows pointing in the right direction. That projection has already started to come to fruition, with Knoth becoming one of the buzziest names among high school pitchers on the rise this spring, a season that included a 19-strikeout perfect game. Knoth is 17 until August, so he’s one of the youngest players in the 2023 class. He’s an athletic 6-foot-1, 190 pounds with a simple, efficient delivery and arm action that he repeats well to fill the strike zone with a fastball that sits at 92-96 mph and reaches 98. That’s an uptick from where his fastball was last summer, giving him a power fastball and a pair of sharp breaking pitches. Knoth has long separated himself for his innate feel to spin the ball, with a sharp, two-plane slider that flashes plus in the low-to-mid 80s. It’s a swing-and-miss pitch for Knoth that he can spin north of 3,000 rpm and could develop into a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scouting scale. His power curveball is another pitch flashing plus with tight rotation that he can spin above 3,000 rpm. His curveball and slider can blend into each other at times, but he throws his curveball with power at 79-82 mph and good depth when it’s at its best. Knoth shows feel for a changeup with fade, though it’s a firm pitch that he doesn’t use much.

[ReasonablySober]

Lotta risk being a young HS RHP but psyched about this pick. If you're gonna bet on a kid, bet on someone with elite tools.

[Thunder Muscle]

Where are we at with our scouting department and/or prospect development? Seems like we have some high level prospects which is good, but looking at past 1st rd picks from like 2009-2019 there are alot of flops it seems. Obviously some of the recent picks are still TBD. Baseball is more of a crapshoot I guess.

[ReasonablySober]

Knoth has some Roy Oswalt in his game.

[wichmae]

Where are we at with our scouting department and/or prospect development? Seems like we have some high level prospects which is good, but looking at past 1st rd picks from like 2009-2019 there are alot of flops it seems. Obviously some of the recent picks are still TBD. Baseball is more of a crapshoot I guess.

Flanagan came on in 2015 and Todd Johnson came in in 2016. TJ first draft was the Ray draft.

[wichmae]

Knoth has some Roy Oswalt in his game.

McCullers is the easy comp. Stroman is another that he profiles like.

[Brewster]

I know you guys might be against it, but I would like the Brewers to start making their pitchers and prospects learn the sweeper.

[ReasonablySober]

Mike Boeve, 3B out of Nebraska-Omaha.

[wichmae]

Interesting they list Boeve as a 2nd baseman

[ReasonablySober]

MLB

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 40 | Run: 40 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 45

The son of longtime baseball coach Jim Boeve, who resuscitated the program at NAIA Hastings (Neb.), Mike has gone from a lightly regarded recruit to one of the best contact hitters in the college class. He struck out just nine times in 47 games this spring and has a long track record of producing, including stints in the wood-bat Northwoods and Cape Cod leagues the last two summers. He's expected to become the highest pick in Nebraska-Omaha history, passing two-time All-Star Bruce Benedict (fifth round, 1976).

Boeve has a quick, compact left-handed stroke, tremendous feel for the barrel and a disciplined approach. He rarely swings and misses and concentrates on getting on base. He doesn't do much damage, however, because he has just average raw power and doesn't tap into it, as his swing lacks extension and he generates a lot of groundball contact and mediocre exit velocities.

Boeve's lack of pop puts his profile in question because he has limited defensive options. He has worked hard to get better at third base, where he's adequate and perhaps could become average, though his arm isn't particularly strong. His below-average speed leaves first base and left field as his only other possibilities.

Law

Boeve is the Jacob Wilson of the Midwest, striking out just nine times this year in 211 plate appearances (4.3 percent) with 32 walks, showing really good bat speed with a slappy swing that favors contact over power and tends to put the ball on the ground. Unlike Wilson, Boeve does make harder quality contact with substantially better exit velocities, but it doesn’t show up in the power department — he had four homers for the Mavericks this spring, eight last year, and none on the Cape last summer — because of the shape of his swing. He’s primarily played third base in college, which is a tough place for a hitter of his profile, although unlike Wilson, Boeve is physical enough to hope that you can unlock more power with some swing work.

I don't love it.

[wichmae]

NVM it updated to third base. Ibanez announced it as 3rd but they listed him at 2nd. Addressing that 3B org blind spot

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

[Thunder Muscle]

Not that I usually put alot of stock into network panels, although I generally feel MLB's are better, but they didn't exactly endorse our draft so far. Boeve pick maybe swaying it too.

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

Really have to hope he can tap into some power.

[LittleRooster]

Read on Twitter

Really have to hope he can tap into some power.

You’re excited about Tyler Black right? Feels like a similar profile here


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[ReasonablySober]

You’re excited about Tyler Black right? Feels like a similar profile here


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Black had some pop in college that's finally showing up this season. He's somehow became a plus runner too. If Boeve has that same trajectory I'll be thrilled to be wrong. He does seem like a really good kid and kind of a coaches dream. No surprise he's the son of a pretty legendary NIAI coach.

[Thunder Muscle]

Where are we at with our scouting department and/or prospect development? Seems like we have some high level prospects which is good, but looking at past 1st rd picks from like 2009-2019 there are alot of flops it seems. Obviously some of the recent picks are still TBD. Baseball is more of a crapshoot I guess.

Flanagan came on in 2015 and Todd Johnson came in in 2016. TJ first draft was the Ray draft.

True, but even if narrow the timeframe to 2016-Current have to say Ray, Hiura were tough top 10 misses. Its looking like Ethan Small is not going to be a contributor. Turang, Mitchell look like will be MLB contributors albeit not elite, but can accept that being late 1st rounders. Frelick, Brown, Wilken all TBD. Obviously only looking at Round 1. I'm far from the expert here so was just curious what some of you more engaged in the farm system feel about our current front office drafting regime.

[wichmae]

Where are we at with our scouting department and/or prospect development? Seems like we have some high level prospects which is good, but looking at past 1st rd picks from like 2009-2019 there are alot of flops it seems. Obviously some of the recent picks are still TBD. Baseball is more of a crapshoot I guess.

Flanagan came on in 2015 and Todd Johnson came in in 2016. TJ first draft was the Ray draft.

True, but even if narrow the timeframe to 2016-Current have to say Ray, Hiura were tough top 10 misses. Its looking like Ethan Small is not going to be a contributor. Turang, Mitchell look like will be MLB contributors albeit not elite, but can accept that being late 1st rounders. Frelick, Brown, Wilken all TBD. Obviously only looking at Round 1. I'm far from the expert here so was just curious what some of you more engaged in the farm system feel about our current front office drafting regime.

It is a valid question to ask. If we look at just those who have made it to the majors and lumping in FRP's.
2016 - Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg (now a pitcher), Mario Feliciano, Corbin Burnes, Payton Henry, Cooper Hummel, and Ryan Aguilar
2017 - Keston Hiura, Tristen Lutz, Bowdien Francis, Alec Bettinger
2018 - Brice Turang. Aaron Ashby, Drew Rasmussen. David Fry, Reese Olson, and Clayton Andrews
2019 - Ethan Small, David Hamilton
2020 - Garret Mitchell, Joey Weimer
2021 - Sal Frelick, Tyler Black
2020 - Eric Brown, Jacob Misiorowski

WHile some of the newer classes are hard to speak to. The regime deserves rightful criticism on the Ray, Hiura, and Small picks. Ray and Small for the actual selection and Hiura in failure to develop him. If you look back at most of the other teams histories and compare them its a pretty similar success portrayal. The tough thing to swallow is their highest picks they've got in draft order have been two of the bigger busts in Ray at 5 and Hiura at 9. The 2016 draft is a rough one to review. There are a ton of busts in round one. In fact it's mostly all busts. In 2017 with Hiura there isn't much success either after where he was drafted. The best pick was Shane Baz who was dealt the next offseason to TB for Archer. Both were really down years in total for FRP's. Now there's probably a lot to be said about if player X was in system Y would they have turned out differently. I think its more on Flanagan and some developmental failures along the way than the actual draft. They did just overhaul a bunch of people under him over the last two seasons.