Trade/Free Agency Thread, part Ocho, 2023-24

[ParticleMan]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG, and plays above average defense. Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production. All we have is the chance to keep the guy we have, flaws and all, and hope he improves as he enters the prime of his career. At least we know he will work his ass off and be a good citizen, not get fat or post videos waving a gun around. There is value in high character.

[big-shot-ROB]

People getting amazed Brown is """APPARENTLY""" asking for NTC when they guy has been involved in at least 1 serious trade rumour every year he's been in BOS and this board can't go 2h to throw out the most horrible trade ideas I've seen.

[darrendaye]

Yes, this tweet is over a year old. Yes, signing him probably not likely unless Pritchard is traded and a path to a rotation spot is there. But, if they want to recover some of the defensive impact lost with Marcus leaving, he is probably the one guy you could say they'd get him if they want him.

Read on Twitter

Who is he? I see 10 players mentioned in that tweet. Which one are you talking about?

The one who is known as a good friend of Tatum, used to play for the Celtics, and whose name matches the team's color identity.

[BK_2020]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG, and plays above average defense. Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production. All we have is the chance to keep the guy we have, flaws and all, and hope he improves as he enters the prime of his career. At least we know he will work his ass off and be a good citizen, not get fat or post videos waving a gun around. There is value in high character.

He can't go right either, and he doesn't score on very good efficiency. His TS% is .581 which is exactly league average and the same as Julius Randle. That's not very good.

He also registers some of the worst on/off numbers in the league, let alone on the team.

Not waiving guns on Insta is not a sign of high character. That's the bare minimum.

[GoCeltics123]

People getting amazed Brown is """APPARENTLY""" asking for NTC when they guy has been involved in at least 1 serious trade rumour every year he's been in BOS and this board can't go 2h to throw out the most horrible trade ideas I've seen.

He's not eligible for a NTC, he's probably asking for a full 15% trade kicker though

[Hal14]

Yes, this tweet is over a year old. Yes, signing him probably not likely unless Pritchard is traded and a path to a rotation spot is there. But, if they want to recover some of the defensive impact lost with Marcus leaving, he is probably the one guy you could say they'd get him if they want him.

Read on Twitter

Who is he? I see 10 players mentioned in that tweet. Which one are you talking about?

The one who is known as a good friend of Tatum, used to play for the Celtics, and whose name matches the team's color identity.

Oh ok. Yeah, I wouldn't hate it if we signed javonte. Just not sure how he is moving now, if he still has the same level of quickness/athleticism since he had knee surgery in January..

Gotta be better than Champagnie, though..

[chrisab123]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG, and plays above average defense. Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production. All we have is the chance to keep the guy we have, flaws and all, and hope he improves as he enters the prime of his career. At least we know he will work his ass off and be a good citizen, not get fat or post videos waving a gun around. There is value in high character.

I'm not sure what switched a lot of fans off of Jaylen. But he is who the Celtics have to build around with Tatum until they get a trade partner who will give them an equal in terms of talent. Why people continue to gloss over this fact is a mystery. If I was new to the NBA and I came on this board I'd think Jaylen was fighting for a roster spot in the Summer League and guys like Grant and Marcus were 10x all stars

[165bows]

Sabonis (1 All-NBA and 3 AS), Siakam (2 All-NBA and 1 AS), Randle (2 All-NBA and 2 AS) all have more accolades than Jaylen Brown and none of them are getting the supermax. Siakam and Randle didn't even sign for the 30% max. Making one All-NBA doesn't necessarily mean you are a superstar deserving of 35% max money.

Brown is better than Randle. Should they sign Brown to the supermax? They don't have a choice if they want to stay competitive. Its a lot easier to replace role players than stars. Unless the Celtics relocate the franchise its a 2nd tier destination. The biggest FAs in team history is Gordon Hayward and Al Horford. Good players but lets be real if Tatum was on the market he wouldn't be going to Boston as a FA. Thats why when a team like Boston drafts someone they have no choice but to keep them. If Wyc can keep writing the checks then its fine.

Not to mention its not going to matter next year when Brown asks out anyways.

Explain how Brown is better than Randle. What does he do meaningfully better? Here are the stat lines for two.

26.6 - 6.9 - 3.5 on .581 TS%, 2.9 TOV
25.1 - 10.0 - 4.1 on .581 TS%, 2.8 TOV

Randle is an offense only value guy whose career TS+ (remember those?) is -156.8 Brown is more versatile and at least less negative on defense and is a +68.7 TS+ for his career. Brown's got flaws but he's not nearly as flawed as Randle and just a better player.

Ultimately same goes for Siakam, -6.7 TS+ for his career, and deeply negative in that category without his one year on the title team.

Is he 25% better than Siakam is really the question, though that prob becomes moot as Siakam prob gets traded and a big raise as well.

[ParticleMan]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG, and plays above average defense. Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production. All we have is the chance to keep the guy we have, flaws and all, and hope he improves as he enters the prime of his career. At least we know he will work his ass off and be a good citizen, not get fat or post videos waving a gun around. There is value in high character.

He can't go right either, and he doesn't score on very good efficiency. His TS% is .581 which is exactly league average and the same as Julius Randle. That's not very good.

He also registers some of the worst on/off numbers in the league, let alone on the team.

Not waiving guns on Insta is not a sign of high character. That's the bare minimum.

.581 is above league average for SGs. Bigs tend to have higher TS%, like Rob is at 0.742. Randle as a PF at .581 is not very good.

it's incredible... he can't go left, can't go right, can't dribble, can't shoot, and yet somehow manages to score 27 ppg on 49% shooting. i don't know how he manages to tie his shoes, let alone be a top-10 scorer in the league.

[ddb]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG, and plays above average defense. Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production. All we have is the chance to keep the guy we have, flaws and all, and hope he improves as he enters the prime of his career. At least we know he will work his ass off and be a good citizen, not get fat or post videos waving a gun around. There is value in high character.

He can't go right either, and he doesn't score on very good efficiency. His TS% is .581 which is exactly league average and the same as Julius Randle. That's not very good.

He also registers some of the worst on/off numbers in the league, let alone on the team.

Not waiving guns on Insta is not a sign of high character. That's the bare minimum.

Few things. The Celtics were absolutely IN on Dame, and any Dame deal would have involved JB and a third team. Brown has a really strong market and is a really good player entering his prime. BUT.....paying JB the supermax is going to make things extremely difficult for Boston to build rosters in the near future. That's just a fact. And then there's another BUT. BUT, trading him opens up the risk of pissing off Tatum. Which clearly the Celtics do not want to do. Especially, when they're in the middle of a title window. You don't want to take a step back and waste a great Tatum season.

My guess at this point is since Dame is being a little bit$h, Boston will end up signing JB and worrying about the rest later. I have no idea about any details of the negotiations, but I've heard NTC as a sticking point. I didn't think JB could request one until 8 years in the league, but since he technically has 1 year remaining on his contract, perhaps he is?? Can someone please clarify that for me? Giving him a NTC is a horrible idea, unless he agrees to a deal for significantly less than the supermax.

As far as trading him elsewhere for a package that doesn't include Dame. I have no idea if Brad would do that or not. I feel like if he did JT would HAVE to be consulted.

[steefP2]

He cannot have a ntc

[Hal14]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG

Average efficiency, actually

plays above average defense.

Eh, idk. I'd say his defense is about average. Gets beat off the dribble quite a bit and also gets caught ball watching quite a bit, is late on rotations, resulting in us giving up open 3's..

Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production.

We don't need to replace that production. Keep in mind...

a) Most championship teams don't have 2 guys averaging 27+ PPG. The nuggets top 2 scorers last season averaged 24 and 20 PPG, yet they were an extremely explosive offense. We just got beat by a Heat team whose top 2 scorers averaged 23 and 20 PPG.

The warriors 2nd leading scorer when they won the 2022 title averaged 22 PPG. Pretty sure Porzingis can do that. If we didn't have JB anymore - Porzingis would probably average more than that.

A lot of JB's production, Porzingis fills that in. And if we moved JB, we could get a lesser star to replace him (someone making like $20-30 mil a year, who can give you around 15-20 PPG.

[steefP2]

This is an extension; for that to contain a ntc it has to be in the previous contract on which the extension is based. Also ddb stop pretending you have sources: you haven’t heard ****

[ddb]

He cannot have a ntc

That's what I thought. Thanks

[GoCeltics123]

With this Jaylen thing, the point is they can't let this deal die over the little things IMO. If you're committed to signing him and trading him in a year or two though, I understand trying to minimize benefits for Jaylen's side of the trade (the trade kicker for example). A 15% kicker with Jaylen's contract is a lot.

But like I've said, trading him now is stupid because your return would've been way way higher around the draft (unless you get Dame)

[ddb]

This is an extension; for that to contain a ntc it has to be in the previous contract on which the extension is based. Also ddb stop pretending you have sources: you haven’t heard ****

I'm a grown a$$ man. I don't pretend anything. And I really don't care what you think.

[fallguy]

The most likely outcome has always been that the Celtics would sign Brown to some version of a supermax and then trade him in the summer of 2024. That's where we're headed.

Still don't think they're done making other significant moves though.

[Celticsfan100]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG

Average efficiency, actually

plays above average defense.

Eh, idk. I'd say his defense is about average. Gets beat off the dribble quite a bit and also gets caught ball watching quite a bit, is late on rotations, resulting in us giving up open 3's..

Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production.

We don't need to replace that production. Keep in mind...

a) Most championship teams don't have 2 guys averaging 27+ PPG. The nuggets top 2 scorers last season averaged 24 and 20 PPG, yet they were an extremely explosive offense. We just got beat by a Heat team whose top 2 scorers averaged 23 and 20 PPG.

The warriors 2nd leading scorer when they won the 2022 title averaged 22 PPG. Pretty sure Porzingis can do that. If we didn't have JB anymore - Porzingis would probably average more than that.

A lot of JB's production, Porzingis fills that in. And if we moved JB, we could get a lesser star to replace him (someone making like $20-30 mil a year, who can give you around 15-20 PPG.

Why does it matter? It’s not our money. You plug in Siakam and we are a worse team. This is a high flying very tall team as currently built. And excellent defensively. Top 2 team if not first in the league. Don’t change a thing. Maybe add a player or trade Brogdon for someone of equal value and we are good to go.

[Hal14]

I don't disagree that JB doesn't deserve $300m and 35% of the max. But if we just let him walk we are going to get worse, and our championship hopes take a serious hit. Yeah he can't go left and has a lot of TOs but the fact is he scores 25 ppg on very good efficiency for a SG, and plays above average defense. Is that worth $300m? No it isn't, but we also don't have a realistic opportunity to find another guy who can replace that production. All we have is the chance to keep the guy we have, flaws and all, and hope he improves as he enters the prime of his career. At least we know he will work his ass off and be a good citizen, not get fat or post videos waving a gun around. There is value in high character.

He can't go right either, and he doesn't score on very good efficiency. His TS% is .581 which is exactly league average and the same as Julius Randle. That's not very good.

He also registers some of the worst on/off numbers in the league, let alone on the team.

Not waiving guns on Insta is not a sign of high character. That's the bare minimum.

.581 is above league average for SGs. Bigs tend to have higher TS%, like Rob is at 0.742.

JB is a wing. So is Tatum. If wings (and guards) have lower TS%, maybe having 2 wings/guards on the same team who are high volume scorers is not an ideal formula for winning a championship. It worked for the Warriors, but Curry and Klay are arguably the greatest shooters of all-time.

The other thing to consider with JB's scoring efficiency, is that he's very good in the mid range and very good finishing at the rim and in transition. The problem has been that his 3 pt % has been dropping. Maybe it's the wrist injury that he had surgery on has affected his shot, maybe just being a higher usage guy over the past 2 or 3 years has caused him to take 3's that he wouldn't have taken earlier in his career (lower % attempts, off the dribble, etc.). But 33% from 3 on over 7 attempts per game is not gonna cut it. Especially when we're a team that shoots more 3's than pretty much every team in the league - and our other star player only shot 35% from 3 on over 9 attempts per game..

Having 2 guys on the same team shoot that many 3's per game at such a low % is not good..especially when neither is an elite defender or passer. Between the 2, Tatum is the better passer, better defender, higher TS%, higher 3 pt %. So perhaps it's addition by subtraction if we move JB..

[Curmudgeon]

Giving JB the max for 5 years is just poor roster management. I feel the team already got worse by giving up Smart and GWill for Porzingis. Sure, they got some picks in the process but picks don't win games. Now we will run it back with Tatum, Porzingis and Brown all calling for the ball. Which one of those three will sacrifice for the team? You can be sure it won't be Brown.