RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #4 (Bill Russell)

[ty 4191]

Now as I've learned how Wilt's scoring wasn't really useful at all and was actually an impediment, well he's falling further. I have him #15 on my all-time list right now and basically in a tier with the 16-23 players. I wouldn't be surprised if I ultimately drop him further and he settles around #20. He's fool's gold. He's basically a great defender who was meh on offense and didn't get it done in the playoffs, that's it.

"Wilt's scoring was an impediment". Prove it.

Having him #15 all time just proves your arrogance and intellectual indolence. Again, ridiculous. You've read nothing about him. You've never done any research, read book and contemporary articles, done breakdowns of his skill sets, and conducted intensive and 3 dimensional study of him, as others have here. You just look at these abstruse, ethereal forumlas and make all your conclusions.

Regarding him being "meh" in the playoffs. Ridiculous, again.

Do you care that Wilt faced the greatest defenses in NBA history, on average, in the playoffs, for example? No. Of course you don't.

[iggymcfrack]

We're a ways from that, but all the available information shows that Wilt just wasn't a very valuable offensive player.

What information? On your knees for Ben Taylor?, like everyone else here?

Or, did you have any independent thought and research (of your own) that supports that conclusion?

I posted it. It’s Wilt’s team’s consistently having poor offenses every year he scored 30+ PPG. The ‘60s weren’t exactly a difficult environment to dominate. The talent level of the league was quite low. If you have more years where your teams offense is worst in the league than above average, whatever you’re doing just isn’t working.

I mean, what kind of “superstar” leads a team to an 11-33 record in their prime, even in todays league of worldwide superstars with all the best athletes from around the planet playing basketball? Wilt managed it in a league populated mostly by white Americans when most of the country didn’t even care much about the game. That’s embarrassing and in no way does it stand up to the performances of true 2-way greats like Hakeem, KG, Giannis, and David Robinson.

[f4p]

Normalized Box Composite Postseason Age 22-31

Code: Select all

                                            Raw      Raw       Raw      Norm'd   Norm'd    Norm'd   PS Avg
Rk    Player Name              Begin Year   PS PER   PS WS48   PS BPM   PS PER   PS WS48   PS BPM   All   
1     Michael Jordan           1985-86      29.4     0.251     11.9     1.000    0.98      1.000    0.993
2     George Mikan             1948-49      28.5     0.254     None     0.938    1.000              0.969
3     Nikola Jokić             2017-18      29       0.236     10.4     0.972    0.878     0.865    0.905
4     LeBron James             2006-07      28       0.246     10.1     0.903    0.946     0.838    0.896
5     Wilt Chamberlain         1959-60      27       0.244     None     0.834    0.932              0.883
6     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar      1969-70      26.4     0.243     9.7      0.793    0.926     0.802    0.84 
7     Kawhi Leonard            2013-14      26.4     0.24      9.3      0.793    0.905     0.766    0.821
8     Giannis Antetokounmpo    2016-17      26.7     0.202     9        0.814    0.649     0.739    0.734
9     Hakeem Olajuwon          1984-85      26.6     0.218     7.8      0.807    0.757     0.631    0.731
10    Shaquille O'Neal         1994-95      28.3     0.212     6.9      0.924    0.716     0.55     0.73 
11    Dolph Schayes            1950-51      25.1     0.218     None     0.703    0.757              0.73 
12    Anthony Davis            2015-16      26.4     0.229     6.8      0.793    0.831     0.541    0.722
13    Chris Paul               2007-08      25.8     0.209     8.5      0.752    0.696     0.694    0.714
14    Tim Duncan               1998-99      26.4     0.215     7.3      0.793    0.736     0.586    0.705
15    Jerry West               1960-61      23.7     0.222     None     0.607    0.784              0.695
16    Kevin Durant             2010-11      24.8     0.204     7.2      0.683    0.662     0.577    0.64 
17    Charles Barkley          1985-86      25.2     0.201     7        0.71     0.642     0.559    0.637
18    Dirk Nowitzki            2000-01      24.7     0.206     6.9      0.676    0.676     0.55     0.634
19    Magic Johnson            1981-82      23.2     0.211     7.7      0.572    0.709     0.622    0.634
20    Oscar Robertson          1960-61      24.1     0.197     None     0.634    0.615              0.625
21    Ray Allen                1997-98      23.6     0.196     7.5      0.6      0.608     0.604    0.604
22    David Robinson           1989-90      24.1     0.189     6.5      0.634    0.561     0.514    0.57 
23    Stephen Curry            2010-11      23       0.194     6.9      0.559    0.595     0.55     0.568
24    Bill Russell             1956-57      20.8     0.213     None     0.407    0.723              0.565
25    Reggie Miller            1987-88      21.6     0.21      6.7      0.462    0.703     0.532    0.565
26    James Harden             2011-12      23.6     0.182     7.1      0.6      0.514     0.568    0.56 
27    Cliff Hagan              1956-57      22.1     0.195     None     0.497    0.601              0.549
28    Kevin Garnett            1998-99      23.9     0.172     7        0.621    0.446     0.559    0.542
29    Larry Bird               1979-80      21.9     0.183     7.4      0.483    0.52      0.595    0.533
30    Kobe Bryant              2000-01      23.5     0.178     6.1      0.593    0.486     0.477    0.519
31    Dwyane Wade              2003-04      23.3     0.171     6.1      0.579    0.439     0.477    0.499
32    Julius Erving            1976-77      22.1     0.176     6.6      0.497    0.473     0.523    0.497
33    Elgin Baylor             1958-59      24       0.156     None     0.628    0.338              0.483
34    Jamal Murray             2019-20      22.6     0.177     5.3      0.531    0.48      0.405    0.472
35    Walt Frazier             1967-68      19.8     0.193     None     0.338    0.588              0.463
36    Bob Pettit               1954-55      22.8     0.161     None     0.545    0.372              0.458
37    Manu Ginóbili            2002-03      20.4     0.186     5.6      0.379    0.541     0.432    0.451
38    George Yardley           1953-54      20.7     0.174     None     0.4      0.459              0.43 
39    Dwight Howard            2007-08      22.7     0.175     3.7      0.538    0.466     0.261    0.422
40    Moses Malone             1977-78      22.2     0.179     3.5      0.503    0.493     0.243    0.413
41    John Stockton            1984-85      20       0.159     6.6      0.352    0.358     0.523    0.411
42    Sam Jones                1957-58      18.2     0.19      None     0.228    0.568              0.398
43    Shawn Kemp               1991-92      21.8     0.171     3.7      0.476    0.439     0.261    0.392
44    Chauncey Billups         1998-99      19       0.189     4.5      0.283    0.561     0.333    0.392
45    Pau Gasol                2002-03      20.9     0.166     4.5      0.414    0.405     0.333    0.384
46    Vince Carter             1998-99      21.4     0.143     5.6      0.448    0.25      0.432    0.377
47    Kyrie Irving             2014-15      21.1     0.165     4        0.428    0.399     0.288    0.372
48    Anfernee Hardaway        1993-94      20.1     0.147     6.1      0.359    0.277     0.477    0.371
49    Amar'e Stoudemire        2004-05      23.1     0.165     2.4      0.566    0.399     0.144    0.369
50    Clyde Drexler            1984-85      20.2     0.139     6.5      0.366    0.223     0.514    0.367
51    Rick Barry               1966-67      21       0.152     None     0.421    0.311              0.366
52    Frank Ramsey             1954-55      16.6     0.196     None     0.117    0.608              0.363
53    Gus Williams             1975-76      20.6     0.153     4.9      0.393    0.318     0.369    0.36 
54    Clyde Lovellette         1953-54      20.8     0.151     None     0.407    0.304              0.355
55    Isiah Thomas             1983-84      19.8     0.143     6        0.338    0.25      0.468    0.352
56    Karl Malone              1985-86      21.5     0.15      3.7      0.455    0.297     0.261    0.338
57    Adrian Dantley           1977-78      20.3     0.173     2.9      0.372    0.453     0.189    0.338
58    George Gervin            1976-77      21.8     0.151     3.4      0.476    0.304     0.234    0.338
59    Rudy Gobert              2014-15      20.2     0.178     2.3      0.366    0.486     0.135    0.329
60    Kevin McHale             1980-81      19.1     0.174     3.4      0.29     0.459     0.234    0.328
61    Terry Porter             1985-86      18.4     0.164     4.6      0.241    0.392     0.342    0.325
62    Carmelo Anthony          2006-07      22       0.136     3.9      0.49     0.203     0.279    0.324
63    Patrick Ewing            1985-86      20.8     0.144     4.2      0.407    0.257     0.306    0.323
64    Russell Westbrook        2010-11      22.4     0.12      4.7      0.517    0.095     0.351    0.321
65    Marc Gasol               2008-09      19       0.153     4.7      0.283    0.318     0.351    0.317
66    Jayson Tatum             2020-21      20.3     0.134     5        0.372    0.189     0.378    0.313
67    Walter Davis             1977-78      21       0.143     3.7      0.421    0.25      0.261    0.311
68    Jimmy Butler             2011-12      19       0.153     4.2      0.283    0.318     0.306    0.302
69    Blake Griffin            2011-12      20.6     0.139     4        0.393    0.223     0.288    0.301
70    Paul Pierce              1999-00      19.4     0.148     4.2      0.31     0.284     0.306    0.3   
71    Joel Embiid              2016-17      21.6     0.134     3.5      0.462    0.189     0.243    0.298
72    Scottie Pippen           1987-88      18.5     0.143     5        0.248    0.25      0.378    0.292
73    Bobby Jones              1976-77      17.5     0.163     4.2      0.179    0.385     0.306    0.29 
74    Allen Iverson            1997-98      21.4     0.111     4.9      0.448    0.034     0.369    0.284
75    Clint Capela             2016-17      18.7     0.171     2.4      0.262    0.439     0.144    0.282
76    Ben Wallace              1996-97      16.9     0.167     3.9      0.138    0.412     0.279    0.276
77    Larry Foust              1950-51      19.5     0.138     None     0.317    0.216              0.267
78    Bill Sharman             1950-51      17       0.162     None     0.145    0.378              0.262
79    Brad Daugherty           1987-88      18.7     0.151     3.2      0.262    0.304     0.216    0.261
80    Deandre Ayton            2020-21      19.4     0.161     1.8      0.31     0.372     0.09     0.257
81    Cedric Maxwell           1977-78      16.2     0.172     3.3      0.09     0.446     0.225    0.254
82    Vern Mikkelsen           1950-51      16.9     0.159     None     0.138    0.358              0.248
83    Don Nelson               1962-63      16.6     0.162     None     0.117    0.378              0.248
84    Elvin Hayes              1968-69      19.3     0.14      3        0.303    0.23      0.198    0.244
85    Rajon Rondo              2008-09      18.9     0.128     4        0.276    0.149     0.288    0.238
86    Horace Grant             1987-88      16.6     0.166     2.9      0.117    0.405     0.189    0.237
87    Damian Lillard           2012-13      19.8     0.114     4.3      0.338    0.054     0.315    0.236
88    Paul George              2012-13      18.9     0.129     3.8      0.276    0.155     0.27     0.234
89    Al Horford               2008-09      18.3     0.14      3.4      0.234    0.23      0.234    0.233
90    Rik Smits                1988-89      19.1     0.148     2.1      0.29     0.284     0.117    0.23 
91    Willis Reed              1964-65      17.8     0.144     None     0.2      0.257              0.228
92    Draymond Green           2012-13      16.3     0.145     4.4      0.097    0.264     0.324    0.228
93    Kevin Johnson            1988-89      19.6     0.123     3.5      0.324    0.115     0.243    0.227
94    Antonio Daniels          1998-99      17.2     0.149     3        0.159    0.291     0.198    0.216
95    Hersey Hawkins           1988-89      16.6     0.143     3.8      0.117    0.25      0.27     0.213
96    Tim Hardaway             1989-90      18.2     0.111     4.9      0.228    0.034     0.369    0.21 
97    James Worthy             1983-84      18.3     0.135     2.9      0.234    0.196     0.189    0.207
98    Alonzo Mourning          1992-93      19.5     0.125     2.7      0.317    0.128     0.171    0.206
99    Steve Nash               1996-97      19.4     0.125     2.8      0.31     0.128     0.18     0.206
100   Jeff Hornacek            1986-87      17       0.141     3.4      0.145    0.236     0.234    0.205
101   Fred Brown               1971-72      19.1     0.134     2.2      0.29     0.189     0.126    0.202
102   Steve Smith              1991-92      17.4     0.132     3.6      0.172    0.176     0.252    0.2   
103   Deron Williams           2006-07      18.8     0.121     3.3      0.269    0.101     0.225    0.199
104   Tom Heinsohn             1956-57      17.7     0.136     None     0.193    0.203              0.198
105   Devin Booker             2018-19      19.8     0.113     3.1      0.338    0.047     0.207    0.197
106   Doc Rivers               1983-84      17.1     0.131     3.8      0.152    0.169     0.27     0.197
107   Chris Bosh               2006-07      18.4     0.144     1.8      0.241    0.257     0.09     0.196
108   Toni Kukoč               1993-94      16.1     0.142     3.7      0.083    0.243     0.261    0.196
109   Shawn Marion             2000-01      18.1     0.13      2.9      0.221    0.162     0.189    0.191
110   Maurice Cheeks           1978-79      16.7     0.136     3.5      0.124    0.203     0.243    0.19 
111   Jason Kidd               1995-96      18.1     0.108     4.5      0.221    0.014     0.333    0.189
112   Jerome Kersey            1984-85      17.3     0.133     3.2      0.166    0.182     0.216    0.188
113   Maurice Lucas            1976-77      17.9     0.134     2.6      0.207    0.189     0.162    0.186
114   Marques Johnson          1978-79      17.6     0.13      3        0.186    0.162     0.198    0.182
115   John Havlicek            1962-63      17.9     0.129     None     0.207    0.155              0.181
116   Bob Dandridge            1969-70      17       0.137     2.9      0.145    0.209     0.189    0.181
117   Marcus Camby             1996-97      16.6     0.144     2.6      0.117    0.257     0.162    0.179
118   Bob McAdoo               1973-74      19.8     0.117     1.9      0.338    0.074     0.099    0.17 
119   Kerry Kittles            1996-97      15.4     0.135     3.9      0.034    0.196     0.279    0.17 
120   Mike Conley              2009-10      17.8     0.114     3.6      0.2      0.054     0.252    0.169
121   Charlie Ward             1994-95      15.1     0.13      4.4      0.014    0.162     0.324    0.167
122   Terry Cummings           1983-84      19.1     0.118     2.2      0.29     0.081     0.126    0.166
123   DeAndre Jordan           2010-11      17.3     0.136     2.1      0.166    0.203     0.117    0.162
124   Kevin Love               2010-11      17.7     0.138     1.6      0.193    0.216     0.072    0.16 
125   James Posey              2003-04      13.9     0.15      3.6      -0.069   0.297     0.252    0.16 
126   Mark Aguirre             1981-82      18.5     0.118     2.4      0.248    0.081     0.144    0.158
127   Gary Payton              1990-91      17.5     0.119     3        0.179    0.088     0.198    0.155
128   Paul Millsap             2007-08      18.3     0.119     2.4      0.234    0.088     0.144    0.155
129   Clifford Ray             1971-72      15.9     0.141     2.4      0.069    0.236     0.144    0.15 
130   Bam Adebayo              2019-20      17.8     0.129     1.8      0.2      0.155     0.09     0.148
131   Serge Ibaka              2011-12      16.7     0.135     2        0.124    0.196     0.108    0.143
132   Gail Goodrich            1965-66      17.2     0.125     None     0.159    0.128              0.143
133   Bob Cousy                1950-51      18       0.116     None     0.214    0.068              0.141
134   Roy Hibbert              2010-11      17.6     0.139     0.9      0.186    0.223     0.009    0.139
135   Chris Webber             1995-96      19.1     0.096     2.8      0.29     -0.068    0.18     0.134
136   Rasheed Wallace          1996-97      16.2     0.129     2.5      0.09     0.155     0.153    0.133
137   Rashard Lewis            2001-02      16       0.125     2.9      0.076    0.128     0.189    0.131
138   Dave Cowens              1970-71      16.6     0.119     2.9      0.117    0.088     0.189    0.131
139   Bailey Howell            1959-60      16.2     0.131     None     0.09     0.169              0.129
140   Paul Westphal            1972-73      17.4     0.12      2.1      0.172    0.095     0.117    0.128
141   Joakim Noah              2007-08      16.4     0.13      1.9      0.103    0.162     0.099    0.122
142   Wes Unseld               1968-69      15       0.123     3.5      0.007    0.115     0.243    0.122
143   Robert Horry             1992-93      13.9     0.129     3.8      -0.069   0.155     0.27     0.119
144   John Salley              1986-87      13.9     0.154     1.9      -0.069   0.324     0.099    0.118
145   Lamar Odom               2001-02      16.7     0.123     1.9      0.124    0.115     0.099    0.113
146   Zelmo Beaty              1962-63      15.5     0.133     None     0.041    0.182              0.112
147   Bryon Russell            1993-94      13.9     0.133     2.9      -0.069   0.182     0.189    0.101
148   Dominique Wilkins        1982-83      18.4     0.096     2.2      0.241    -0.068    0.126    0.1   
149   Sam Perkins              1984-85      16.1     0.119     2.1      0.083    0.088     0.117    0.096
150   Earl Monroe              1967-68      16.8     0.115     None     0.131    0.061              0.096


[iggymcfrack]

Now as I've learned how Wilt's scoring wasn't really useful at all and was actually an impediment, well he's falling further. I have him #15 on my all-time list right now and basically in a tier with the 16-23 players. I wouldn't be surprised if I ultimately drop him further and he settles around #20. He's fool's gold. He's basically a great defender who was meh on offense and didn't get it done in the playoffs, that's it.

"Wilt's scoring was an impediment". Prove it.

Having him #15 all time just proves your arrogance and intellectual indolence. Again, ridiculous. You've read nothing about him. You've never done any research, read book and contemporary articles, done breakdowns of his skill sets, and conducted intensive and 3 dimensional study of him, as others have here. You just look at these abstruse, ethereal forumlas and make all your conclusions.

Regarding him being "meh" in the playoffs. Ridiculous, again.

Do you care that Wilt faced the greatest defenses in NBA history, on average, in the playoffs, for example? No. Of course you don't.

I haven’t even gotten to Wilt failing worse in the playoffs than any other superstar yet. I’m still focusing on his regular season failings for now. And I promise that Wilt faced much weaker defenses on average in the regular season than anyone else currently under consideration just by virtue of his era.

[ty 4191]

I promise that Wilt faced much weaker defenses on average in the regular season than anyone else currently under consideration just by virtue of his era.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PBH_Sb6IywvCQ8LDLtka4jOzuLdYRKIsvrjIyN67knM/edit#gid=0

See "Career Rankings" tab.

Also, this:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1836300

Who are your top 15 players of all time, in order?

[Doctor MJ]

This is a good push back and it encourages us to drill down.

Here's one thing that I think should be brought front of mind:

Statistically Duncan's decay is noteworthy for how gradual it is. To the extent this can be taken to be a reasonable mapping of how good Duncan was at any given time, it implies that Duncan wasn't that much worse in his post-prime compared to his prime.

I don't really think it's 100% true though. Duncan aged gracefully, but it doesn't mean that he didn't have a steep declines throughout his career. I'd say that the first time we saw a visible decline in his ability and impact was in 2008/09 season. I know, his boxscore numbers looks almost the same, but all impact signals show a clear regress and he started to deal with some injuries (don't remember the nature of them) in the second part of the season and I don't think he recovered from them.

Then another steep decline was in 2010/11 season when you can no longer call Duncan anywhere near his prime. He had a decent comeback season in 2012/13, but nobody would ever mistake it with prime Duncan. So in short - I don't believe that Duncan's decline acceleration was steady

Fair enough.

Taking that as a premise is compatible with the contemporary story of Duncan's stature:

Not one of the great primes in history compared to Shaq and others from different eras, but his gradual decay allowed him to surpass Shaq for career.

Again, I don't think that's the narrative of Duncan's career. He was seen as a massive prospect and he was Shaq's peer after he won the title in 1999. I think the first time people stopped looking at him this way is in 2005/06 season.

That lasted from 1999 to 2001. After the Spurs got humiliated in the 2001 playoffs, Shaq was clearly seen as THE player of the era, and while Duncan's later titles helped his career case, nothing he did really made most think he was Shaq's equal in prime.

It gets trickier though, I think, if you do believe that Duncan was as good or better than Shaq in their respective primes. If we continue with the premise of graceful gradual decay on Duncan's part, we'd expect that that would mean Duncan would be able to have a really long run continuing to be an MVP candidate into old age...which as I've pointed out, is absolutely not what happened.

Or you can believe that Duncan was on the MVP level in the first 11 years of his career, then declined noticeably and then declined again after two years, but these declines were slim enough that he could still produce meaningful seasons on the grand scale.

I will keep the line you created to make my response in line with your post.

I think your assessment of a punctuated decline makes sense.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After '06-07, he makes no appearances in my POY 5 nor in my OPOY or DPOY 3,

So, you don't have Duncan in DPOY 3 in 2008?

I have KG, LeBron & Bowen.

While I do believe Duncan was wronged a few years earlier when Bowen became the guy getting DPOY love from the Spurs, once we get beyond a certain point Bowen had a pretty consistent defensive +/- edge from what I see. Duncan played a bit more minutes which helps some, but it's not really a gigantic edge.

and I feel like that's a thing I can put forward to
you and others: Does he make yours?

He'd make my top 5 POY in 2008 and top 3 DPOY at least in 2008 and 2013 (most likely in 2009 and 2014 as well).

I'll skip past 2008 because that's already discussed above, and I think we both agree that he was weaker after that year.

In 2009 you have him as a Top 3 DPOY. In that year, the team had a better DRtg in both the regular & post season with him on the bench, and this was dramatically so in their 1st round upset to the Mavs. Does this concern you?

In 2013 & 2014 there are minutes issues particularly in the regular season, but clearly I can get looking past that if you're just focused on the playoffs. Thing is, wasn't Kawhi Leonard the more resilient playoff defender those years? The github single year playoffs RAPM gives Kawhi the stronger DRAPM both years, and if I do a similar count to 2009 where I ask "For whom was the on-court DRtg better than the team's overall DRtg?" for those playoffs, I get a count of Kawhi 6 to Duncan 4. (I'll note that I have Kawhi in my Top 3 DPOY both year.)

Something else I feel a need to touch upon is that I believe Duncan had some struggles against perimeter-oriented attacks going all the way back to when he was younger. People back then took the message that Duncan's team had a matchup advantage over the Nash Suns, which would be really interesting if Duncan's presence were the reason why...but really Parker & Ginobili were the guys putting up considerably better +/- numbers over the course of years in that matchup.

Player Cume +/- (OnWin-Loss)

Ginobili +33 (12-8)
Parker +24 (12-8)
Duncan -12 (10-10)

I don't want to overstate the significance of this as a general attack on Duncan, but for anyone thinking that Duncan was remarkably immune to pace & space, I don't think he actually was. Better than Shaq? Oh hell yeah. But he still showed signs of struggling against effective smallball.

[iggymcfrack]

I promise that Wilt faced much weaker defenses on average in the regular season than anyone else currently under consideration just by virtue of his era.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PBH_Sb6IywvCQ8LDLtka4jOzuLdYRKIsvrjIyN67knM/edit#gid=0

See "Career Rankings" tab.

Also, this:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1836300

Who are your top 15 players of all time, in order?

Literally has nothing to do with what I said.

1. LeBron
(gap)
2. Jordan
3. Duncan
4. Kareem
5. Shaq
6. Hakeem
7. KG
(gap)
8. Curry
9. D-Rob
10. Giannis
11. Russell
12. CP3
13. Magic
14. Jokic
15. Wilt

[f4p]

Normalized Box Composite Regular + Postseason (25% RS / 75% PS) Age 22-31

Code: Select all

                                            RS Avg   PS Avg   Blend
Rk    Player Name              Begin Year   All      All      All   
1     Michael Jordan           1985-86      1.000    0.993    0.995
2     George Mikan             1948-49      0.781    0.969    0.922
3     Nikola Jokić             2017-18      0.887    0.905    0.901
4     LeBron James             2006-07      0.892    0.896    0.895
5     Wilt Chamberlain         1959-60      0.913    0.883    0.891
6     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar      1969-70      0.79     0.84     0.828
7     Kawhi Leonard            2013-14      0.627    0.821    0.773
8     Giannis Antetokounmpo    2016-17      0.821    0.734    0.756
9     Chris Paul               2007-08      0.793    0.714    0.734
10    Shaquille O'Neal         1994-95      0.711    0.73     0.725
11    Anthony Davis            2015-16      0.593    0.722    0.689
12    Dolph Schayes            1950-51      0.526    0.73     0.679
13    Tim Duncan               1998-99      0.594    0.705    0.677
14    Kevin Durant             2010-11      0.734    0.64     0.664
15    Hakeem Olajuwon          1984-85      0.458    0.731    0.663
16    Jerry West               1960-61      0.502    0.695    0.647
17    Charles Barkley          1985-86      0.629    0.637    0.635
18    Magic Johnson            1981-82      0.632    0.634    0.634
19    David Robinson           1989-90      0.813    0.57     0.63 
20    Oscar Robertson          1960-61      0.615    0.625    0.622
21    Dirk Nowitzki            2000-01      0.567    0.634    0.617
22    James Harden             2011-12      0.692    0.56     0.593
23    Stephen Curry            2010-11      0.603    0.568    0.576
24    Kevin Garnett            1998-99      0.607    0.542    0.558
25    Larry Bird               1979-80      0.579    0.533    0.544
26    Kobe Bryant              2000-01      0.487    0.519    0.511
27    Ray Allen                1997-98      0.226    0.604    0.509
28    Dwyane Wade              2003-04      0.533    0.499    0.507
29    Bill Russell             1956-57      0.329    0.565    0.506
30    Bob Pettit               1954-55      0.605    0.458    0.495
31    Cliff Hagan              1956-57      0.316    0.549    0.491
32    Julius Erving            1976-77      0.457    0.497    0.487
33    Reggie Miller            1987-88      0.245    0.565    0.485
34    Manu Ginóbili            2002-03      0.471    0.451    0.456
35    Elgin Baylor             1958-59      0.338    0.483    0.447
36    John Stockton            1984-85      0.472    0.411    0.426
37    Walt Frazier             1967-68      0.244    0.463    0.408
38    Moses Malone             1977-78      0.338    0.413    0.394
39    Dwight Howard            2007-08      0.309    0.422    0.394
40    George Yardley           1953-54      0.288    0.43     0.394
41    Joel Embiid              2016-17      0.64     0.298    0.384
42    Kyrie Irving             2014-15      0.374    0.372    0.372
43    Pau Gasol                2002-03      0.337    0.384    0.372
44    Clyde Drexler            1984-85      0.377    0.367    0.37 
45    Chauncey Billups         1998-99      0.282    0.392    0.365
46    Sam Jones                1957-58      0.253    0.398    0.361
47    Clyde Lovellette         1953-54      0.36     0.355    0.357
48    Rick Barry               1966-67      0.331    0.366    0.357
49    Russell Westbrook        2010-11      0.46     0.321    0.356
50    Vince Carter             1998-99      0.279    0.377    0.352
51    Karl Malone              1985-86      0.392    0.338    0.351
52    Rudy Gobert              2014-15      0.418    0.329    0.351
53    Amar'e Stoudemire        2004-05      0.29     0.369    0.35 
54    Adrian Dantley           1977-78      0.375    0.338    0.347
55    Jamal Murray             2019-20      -0.071   0.472    0.336
56    Shawn Kemp               1991-92      0.151    0.392    0.332
57    George Gervin            1976-77      0.293    0.338    0.327
58    Patrick Ewing            1985-86      0.295    0.323    0.316
59    Jimmy Butler             2011-12      0.343    0.302    0.313
60    Kevin McHale             1980-81      0.251    0.328    0.309
61    Anfernee Hardaway        1993-94      0.121    0.371    0.309
62    Gus Williams             1975-76      0.123    0.36     0.301
63    Clint Capela             2016-17      0.356    0.282    0.3   
64    Paul Pierce              1999-00      0.277    0.3      0.294
65    Carmelo Anthony          2006-07      0.195    0.324    0.292
66    Blake Griffin            2011-12      0.265    0.301    0.292
67    Bobby Jones              1976-77      0.272    0.29     0.286
68    Frank Ramsey             1954-55      0.049    0.363    0.284
69    Isiah Thomas             1983-84      0.076    0.352    0.283
70    Terry Porter             1985-86      0.149    0.325    0.281
71    Scottie Pippen           1987-88      0.241    0.292    0.279
72    Marc Gasol               2008-09      0.145    0.317    0.274
73    Allen Iverson            1997-98      0.222    0.284    0.268
74    Walter Davis             1977-78      0.134    0.311    0.266
75    Larry Foust              1950-51      0.25     0.267    0.263
76    Damian Lillard           2012-13      0.341    0.236    0.262
77    Bill Sharman             1950-51      0.216    0.262    0.25 
78    Kevin Johnson            1988-89      0.315    0.227    0.249
79    Brad Daugherty           1987-88      0.166    0.261    0.237
80    Vern Mikkelsen           1950-51      0.186    0.248    0.233
81    Paul George              2012-13      0.222    0.234    0.231
82    Ben Wallace              1996-97      0.082    0.276    0.228
83    Alonzo Mourning          1992-93      0.266    0.206    0.221
84    Al Horford               2008-09      0.187    0.233    0.221
85    Jayson Tatum             2020-21      -0.071   0.313    0.217
86    Willis Reed              1964-65      0.135    0.228    0.205
87    Cedric Maxwell           1977-78      0.056    0.254    0.204
88    Kevin Love               2010-11      0.326    0.16     0.202
89    Chris Bosh               2006-07      0.221    0.196    0.202
90    Don Nelson               1962-63      0.059    0.248    0.201
91    Shawn Marion             2000-01      0.224    0.191    0.199
92    Steve Nash               1996-97      0.177    0.206    0.199
93    Tim Hardaway             1989-90      0.155    0.21     0.196
94    Horace Grant             1987-88      0.072    0.237    0.196
95    Elvin Hayes              1968-69      0.05     0.244    0.195
96    Bob McAdoo               1973-74      0.262    0.17     0.193
97    Marques Johnson          1978-79      0.204    0.182    0.188
98    Toni Kukoč               1993-94      0.151    0.196    0.185
99    Jason Kidd               1995-96      0.159    0.189    0.182
100   Deron Williams           2006-07      0.105    0.199    0.175
101   Deandre Ayton            2020-21      -0.071   0.257    0.175
102   Doc Rivers               1983-84      0.1      0.197    0.173
103   Devin Booker             2018-19      0.097    0.197    0.172
104   James Worthy             1983-84      0.067    0.207    0.172
105   Draymond Green           2012-13      -0.001   0.228    0.171
106   Gary Payton              1990-91      0.214    0.155    0.17 
107   Tom Heinsohn             1956-57      0.088    0.198    0.17 
108   Rajon Rondo              2008-09      -0.035   0.238    0.169
109   Bailey Howell            1959-60      0.283    0.129    0.168
110   DeAndre Jordan           2010-11      0.183    0.162    0.167
111   Hersey Hawkins           1988-89      0.028    0.213    0.166
112   Rik Smits                1988-89      -0.032   0.23     0.165
113   Jeff Hornacek            1986-87      0.043    0.205    0.165
114   Maurice Cheeks           1978-79      0.083    0.19     0.163
115   Chris Webber             1995-96      0.243    0.134    0.161
116   Fred Brown               1971-72      0.036    0.202    0.16 
117   Mike Conley              2009-10      0.121    0.169    0.157
118   Steve Smith              1991-92      0.014    0.2      0.154
119   Paul Millsap             2007-08      0.14     0.155    0.152
120   John Havlicek            1962-63      0.059    0.181    0.151
121   Paul Westphal            1972-73      0.216    0.128    0.15 
122   Marcus Camby             1996-97      0.057    0.179    0.148
123   Bob Cousy                1950-51      0.152    0.141    0.144
124   Antonio Daniels          1998-99      -0.071   0.216    0.144
125   Terry Cummings           1983-84      0.066    0.166    0.141
126   Dominique Wilkins        1982-83      0.251    0.1      0.138
127   Bob Dandridge            1969-70      -0.002   0.181    0.135
128   Jerome Kersey            1984-85      -0.026   0.188    0.135
129   Mark Aguirre             1981-82      0.063    0.158    0.134
130   Sidney Moncrief          1979-80      0.274    0.085    0.132
131   Mark Price               1986-87      0.271    0.084    0.131
132   Rasheed Wallace          1996-97      0.099    0.133    0.124
133   Kerry Kittles            1996-97      -0.018   0.17     0.123
134   Maurice Lucas            1976-77      -0.071   0.186    0.122
135   Joakim Noah              2007-08      0.114    0.122    0.12 
136   Charlie Ward             1994-95      -0.022   0.167    0.12 
137   Neil Johnston            1951-52      0.668    -0.068   0.116
138   Robert Parish            1976-77      0.193    0.089    0.115
139   Rashard Lewis            2001-02      0.053    0.131    0.112
140   Wes Unseld               1968-69      0.066    0.122    0.108
141   Zelmo Beaty              1962-63      0.092    0.112    0.107
142   Clifford Ray             1971-72      -0.021   0.15     0.107
143   Dave Cowens              1970-71      0.034    0.131    0.107
144   James Posey              2003-04      -0.071   0.16     0.102
145   Serge Ibaka              2011-12      -0.03    0.143    0.099
146   Bam Adebayo              2019-20      -0.071   0.148    0.094
147   LaMarcus Aldridge        2007-08      0.146    0.075    0.093
148   Gail Goodrich            1965-66      -0.073   0.143    0.089
149   Lou Hudson               1966-67      0.069    0.093    0.087
150   Roy Hibbert              2010-11      -0.071   0.139    0.087



[Doctor MJ]

The pithiness is no worry, but that’s not the media tone I got in my part of the country (closest team Wolves). Here I felt a push for a Shaq/Kobe duo as the best team with a Duncan/KG rivalry as the other contenders for best player with Shaq.

Felt like they were looking for an excuse to put Kobe on that level, but could never quite do it.

Dirk, undeservedly, didn’t get much air-time up here.

During my formative sports years.

Appreciate the thoughts, and I'll certainly acknowledge that as an Angeleno there was a bias toward the Lakers. I will also emphasize that this was the era that drove me away from my Laker fandom. They didn't get replaced by another team (my feelings about the Lakers are strong and complex in a way that really can only be matched by the Chargers who left my hometown of San Diego), I just got really, really sick of the Laker drama and all the excuses from those around me.

This to say: I may indeed have a bias of attention toward the Lakers from that era, but I didn't see them through rose-tinted glasses. I shocked myself in the 2001 playoffs cheering for the Lakers to lose just because I thought they deserved it...only to see them reach a level that I had never seen a team reach before, and dominance-wise, have only ever seen challenged by the '16-17 Warriors.

One thing though: When was this that Duncan/KG felt like a rivalry to challenge Shaq? I would suggest that really began in earnest 2002-ish at a time when all agreed that Shaq didn't look as good as he had in the years before.

Duncan & KG were seen as eventual challengers to the throne before that, and Duncan winning a chip so early temporarily put him into a conversation with Shaq, but after the 2001 playoffs, it wasn't seen so much as Shaq vs Duncan vs KG as it was Shaq vs Kobe or Shaq's talent vs Shaq's attitude.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Hakeem in Impact Metrics
Given all the discussion on Hakeem, I thought it might be interesting to go through all the available impact data we have. All of the stats we have are imperfect (RAPM has small samples, WOWY-based stuff is noisy), but I'd argue that they can still help us get a handle on a player when examined on the whole, in conjunction with contextual and film analysis. I'm going to start this post by summarizing the available 'pure' impact metrics, with the hope of getting more into the box/hybrid metrics, context, and film analysis in the upcoming days/threads.

So: how do available (pure) impact metrics rate Hakeem relative in the upcoming tiers? I'll use the previous projects' remaining Top 14 players plus Curry for these tiers. In chronological order: Russel, Wilt, Oscar, West, Bird, Magic, Hakeem, Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Kobe, Curry.

Raw WOWY: This is probably Hakeem's most favorable impact stat. How does he look?
-10-year Prime WOWY: Oscar, West, Bird, Shaq, Garnett, Curry > Hakeem. (Magic barely behind).
-Multi-season lineup changes (the OhayoKD special): Russell looks GOAT-level and definitely gets above Hakeem. Others may look better as well, but there's less of a single database to check for these full-season trade/injury/rookie/retirement-based WOWY data.

Overall in raw WOWY, Hakeem only has a case over Wilt, Magic, Duncan, and Kobe. Russell, Shaq, and KG are better than Hakeem, as are all the all-time non-bigs.

Adjusted WOWY: if we adjust for teammates (in the same way you can adjust raw plus minus to make APM/RAPM):
-10-year Prime WOWYR: Russell, Wilt, Oscar, West, Magic, Shaq, Garnett, Kobe > Hakeem (barely Duncan barely behind, Bird behind; no Curry data)
-10-year Prime GPM (alternate calculation method for WOWYR): Russell, Oscar, West, Bird, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Kobe > Hakeem (Wilt behind; no Curry data).
-10-year Average between adjusted-WOWY stats: Russell, Oscar, West, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Garnett > Hakeem = Kobe (barely over Bird or Wilt; no Curry data).

So in adjusted WOWY stats, Hakeem doesn't really have a case over the same bigs (Russell, Shaq, Garnett) plus Duncan, and all the all-time guards (Oscar, West, Magic, and likely Curry given Curry’s GOAT raw WOWY stats). He has a weak case over Kobe, some case over Wilt and Bird.

RAPM: We have small samples of Hakeem's RAPM, thanks to Squared2020. We have ~136 prime games (14 games in 1988 + 25 games in 1991 + 19 games in 1996 = 58 games in his 10-year prime, plus full-season data in 1997). We also have full post-prime and 9 games from his rookie season. Small samples can be very noisy (so larger uncertainty range), but 25 games in 1991 is big enough to not be entirely noise (particularly when boosted by the context of data from 3 other prime years, and data from 6 non-prime years).

How does Hakeem look in prime RAPM? His values are +1.82 in 1985, +1.52 in 1988, +3.19 in 1991, +3.50 in 1996, +3.37 in 1997. In other words...
Bird, Magic, Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, Kobe, Curry >> Hakeem (with no data for Russell, Wilt, Oscar, West). I.e., Hakeem's RAPM data is significantly lower than all the available players in this tier. But we're dealing with small samples, where Hakeem's teams underperformed vs their full-season rate.

What if we curve Hakeem's numbers up, based on his team's full-season play (so if Hakeem's teams performed 12% worse in the games we have vs their full-season rating, what if we assume the underperformance is equally from Hakeem and his teammates and so boost Hakeem's numbers by 12%)?
Hakeem ends up having +1.7 in 1988, +3.4 in 1991, +4.8 in 1996. Which is an improvement!... that still isn't enough to get Hakeem over the better years of literally any of the other available players in this tier.

Okay, if we still think the measurement is too noisy, what if we only compare the full-season data at equivalent ages (so age 34+). This gives a handle on how players aged, and maybe can help us infer prime value based on the decline.
Hakeem (age 34+): 3.37, 3.11, 2.62, 1.56, 0.5, 1.04
Shaq (age 34+): 1.97, 2.96, 0.62, -1.32, 0.43.
Duncan (age 34+): 3.26, 5.1, 5.24, 4.03, 3.04
Garnett (age 34+): 5.73, 6.89, 6.3, 3.46, 1.53
Kobe (age 34+): 0.74, 1.89, 0.18, -0.86
Finally, at least he's not last again!

So in (limited) prime RAPM, Hakeem looks worse than every available player in this tier. As an older player, Hakeem looks better than Shaq and Kobe (but under Duncan and Garnett). But again, this data is not ideal, and it may not capture his playoff improvement (which I'll try to get to in the coming posts/days).

Overall Takeaways: I’ll leave the box stats and playoff stats for a future post. These are important factors to consider (especially playoff stats for Hakeem), and I don’t want to rush them for now.

But in the mean time, these are all the true/“pure” impact stats we have for Hakeem. They all have limitations. Raw WOWY and WOWYR are both quite noisy with large uncertainty. The prime RAPM data use small samples, and are thus noisy. And the post-prime RAPM data is less noisy, but misses the seasons we’re actually interested in. However, taken together, they can still be used to help pin down the value of prime Hakeem. And what I've checked (so far) puts Hakeem towards the bottom of this tier.

Looking at players who are currently up for being voted in:
-Russell > Hakeem. The raw WOWY (multi-season lineup changes) data clearly favor Russell, as do all the adjusted WOWY data. We have no Russell RAPM data.
-Shaq >! Hakeem. Shaq’s better in every raw WOWY and adjusted WOWY stat, and his prime RAPM is significantly ahead. The only advantage Hakeem seems to have is age 34+ RAPM, so you’d need a very heavy longevity weighting to prefer Hakeem to Shaq.
-Duncan >~ Hakeem. You can argue Hakeem if you heavily weight raw WOWY data, but the adjusted WOWY data (WOWYR, GPM, etc.) favor Duncan, the available prime RAPM data significantly favors Duncan, as does the late-career full-season RAPM.

-Hakeem > Wilt. Wilt is a more interesting discussion. WOWY-based data has never been quite as high on Wilt. Hakeem is higher in the raw WOWY data, and is higher in the adjusted WOWY data (though not by much, well within the bounds of uncertainty). We have no Wilt RAPM, so it seems like the available data favors Hakeem.
For those who'd like to make a pro-Wilt argument, some of this can be explained with context: Wilt has down years in 1965/69/70/73, which are the very same years he’s switching teams/injured/retiring, so his available WOWY samples may be dominated by the down years. Alternatively, an argument for Wilt may focus more on box stats, or focus more on evaluating Wilt’s “talent” over his per-season “impact”.

As for the other players, WOWY/available RAPM data pretty clearly favors the all-time guards (Oscar, West, Magic, Curry) as well as Garnett and possibly Bird, so it may be time to start nominating them. A longevity-heavy, playoff-heavy weighting might be able to push Hakeem past some of them, but many of these players are favored in all the available impact metrics.

Since Hakeem has been nominated already (and the others haven't), this to me suggests that people are either not valuing the impact data we have that heavily (at least compared to box stats or film or qualitative analysis), or perhaps are valuing longevity and inferred playoff improvement enough to push out the non-bigs (despite their per-season advantage over some of these bigs). I'd love to hear thoughts on this.

Me personally, I'm not ready to have Hakeem at the very bottom of these tiers (particularly given the longevity, and possibly given the playoff-improvement pending more film/data analysis)... but I do find it somewhat concerning (for a Top 10 player) that his adjusted WOWY data is so low, and that he has literally no single (available) RAPM sample that would put him at strong-MVP or all time. I might have him closer to ~10th, rather than fighting for 4th.

Sources:
-Thinking Basketball's Prime WOWY/WOWYR dataset (the traditional source for WOWY/WOWYR)
-Curry raw WOWY was approximately calculated by me in the RealGM Greatest Peaks Project
-Squared2020's RAPM for historical players (the traditional source for historical RAPM)
-Goldstein's RAPM for post-1997 (the traditional source for RAPM)

Hakeem is ahead in Scaled WOWYRand Alt Scaled. He falls behind Duncan in 10-year Scaled GPM. Hakeem's Prime WOWYR is the same as Duncan's, and he has a higher Prime WOWYR. Hakeem falls slightly behind Duncan in average due to to the decent discrepancy between between their GPM values. However, their averages are nearly equal and Hakeem actually looks better in multiple variations of WOWY.

[ZeppelinPage]

Wilt put up 40/25/3.5/10 for 7 years, and literally nobody here cares.

He has 72 all time records, 68 to himself. And literally nobody cares.

So why bother making a case?

So I, and others, can get completely ignored and continue reading people blathering on batting ad nauseam ad perpetuam about "WOWY-R", "CORP", and other BS self-congratulatory metrics that nobody (but this board and the Ben Taylor sycophants) gives a **** about?

Here are some metrics that hopefully aren't too self-congratulatory for you:

Warriors team offensive rating
1958/59: 86.7 (8/8)- year before Wilt joins team
1959/60: 88.7 (7/8)- year Wilt joins
1960/61: 91.2 (6/8)
1961/62: 94.5 (4/9)
1962/63: 95.2 (5/9)
1963/64: 93.0 (7/9)
1964/65: 87.7 (9/9)- Wilt traded midseason with the team in last place with no chance to make the playoffs
1965/66: 92.6 (7/9)- year after Wilt leaves

76ers team offensive rating
1963/64: 93.8 (6/9)
1964/65: 94.1 (5/9)- Wilt arrives midseason in a trade where the Sixers give up very little for him
1965/66: 95.3 (6/9)

Where's the impact? Why does it seem to have a neutral effect when Wilt leaves or joins a team? Why did his teams struggle so much offensively when he was putting up these huge numbers? And if the volume scoring doesn't help the offense, then what good is it? Wilt did play on some very good offenses, but never as a volume scorer. After 1966, he would never average 30 PPG again. If him scoring 40-50 PPG was simply a strategic error, why should we reward him for it? Westbrook put up much more useful crazy numbers and people are constantly dismissive of those. If Russ had shot the ball even MORE in OKC and averaged 40 PPG would that make him a GOAT candidate?

Like I get it, the numbers are impressive. When I very first started posting about basketball on the internet 15-20 years ago, I thought he was the GOAT over MJ due to his crazy scoring and rebounding averages. But the more I've learned, the lower I've gotten on him. First I learned about the crazy pace from the '60s and dropped him from #1 to the 6-10 range, but still had him well above Russell. Then I learned how Wilt actually probably had better teammates than Russell on average and decided even though I couldn't understand how a limited player like Russell beat him, I had to have Russell ahead so I dropped Wilt out of the top 10. Now as I've learned how Wilt's scoring wasn't really useful at all and was actually an impediment, well he's falling further. I have him #15 on my all-time list right now and basically in a tier with the 16-23 players. I wouldn't be surprised if I ultimately drop him further and he settles around #20. He's fool's gold. He's basically a great defender who was meh on offense and didn't get it done in the playoffs, that's it.

Besides the ridiculousness of simply looking at team ratings from 60+ years ago with zero context and determining a players worth on offense based solely on that--I do find it comical that their highest finish in ORtg listed is literally the season where the coach instructed Wilt to shoot 40 times a game in order to prevent his offensively-inept teammates from missing more shots.

I've always found Seth Partnow, formerly of Nylon Calculus and previous Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, to have a simple but apt perspective on the idea that Wilt's volume scoring was directly creating poor offensive team ratings:

Read on Twitter

[f4p]

Normalized Box Composite Age 22-31 Playoff Risers/Fallers

*just compares postseason to regular season, some guys played more minutes in the playoffs in lesser seasons and some played more in their best seasons, this doesn't adjust for that. some guys missed the minutes cut-off in the playoffs.

Code: Select all

Rk    Player Name              Begin Year   RS Avg   PS Avg   Blend    PS/RS Diff
1     Ray Allen                1997-98      0.226    0.604    0.509    0.378     
2     Reggie Miller            1987-88      0.245    0.565    0.485    0.32     
3     Frank Ramsey             1954-55      0.049    0.363    0.284    0.314     
4     Isiah Thomas             1983-84      0.076    0.352    0.283    0.276     
5     Hakeem Olajuwon          1984-85      0.458    0.731    0.663    0.273     
6     Rajon Rondo              2008-09      -0.035   0.238    0.169    0.273     
7     Rik Smits                1988-89      -0.032   0.23     0.165    0.262     
8     Anfernee Hardaway        1993-94      0.121    0.371    0.309    0.25     
9     Shawn Kemp               1991-92      0.151    0.392    0.332    0.241     
10    Gus Williams             1975-76      0.123    0.36     0.301    0.237     
11    Bill Russell             1956-57      0.329    0.565    0.506    0.236     
12    Cliff Hagan              1956-57      0.316    0.549    0.491    0.233     
13    Draymond Green           2012-13      -0.001   0.228    0.171    0.229     
14    Walt Frazier             1967-68      0.244    0.463    0.408    0.219     
15    Jerome Kersey            1984-85      -0.026   0.188    0.135    0.214     
16    Dolph Schayes            1950-51      0.526    0.73     0.679    0.204     
17    Cedric Maxwell           1977-78      0.056    0.254    0.204    0.198     
18    Kawhi Leonard            2013-14      0.627    0.821    0.773    0.194     
19    Ben Wallace              1996-97      0.082    0.276    0.228    0.194     
20    Elvin Hayes              1968-69      0.05     0.244    0.195    0.194     
21    Jerry West               1960-61      0.502    0.695    0.647    0.193     
22    Don Nelson               1962-63      0.059    0.248    0.201    0.189     
23    Charlie Ward             1994-95      -0.022   0.167    0.12     0.189     
24    George Mikan             1948-49      0.781    0.969    0.922    0.188     
25    Kerry Kittles            1996-97      -0.018   0.17     0.123    0.188     
26    Steve Smith              1991-92      0.014    0.2      0.154    0.186     
27    Hersey Hawkins           1988-89      0.028    0.213    0.166    0.185     
28    Bob Dandridge            1969-70      -0.002   0.181    0.135    0.183     
29    Walter Davis             1977-78      0.134    0.311    0.266    0.177     
30    Terry Porter             1985-86      0.149    0.325    0.281    0.176     
31    Serge Ibaka              2011-12      -0.03    0.143    0.099    0.173     
32    Marc Gasol               2008-09      0.145    0.317    0.274    0.172     
33    Clifford Ray             1971-72      -0.021   0.15     0.107    0.171     
34    Fred Brown               1971-72      0.036    0.202    0.16     0.166     
35    Horace Grant             1987-88      0.072    0.237    0.196    0.165     
36    Jeff Hornacek            1986-87      0.043    0.205    0.165    0.162     
37    Robert Horry             1992-93      -0.032   0.119    0.081    0.151     
38    Elgin Baylor             1958-59      0.338    0.483    0.447    0.145     
39    Sam Jones                1957-58      0.253    0.398    0.361    0.145     
40    George Yardley           1953-54      0.288    0.43     0.394    0.142     
41    James Worthy             1983-84      0.067    0.207    0.172    0.14     
42    Tobias Harris            2014-15      -0.049   0.089    0.055    0.138     
43    Sam Perkins              1984-85      -0.039   0.096    0.062    0.135     
44    Lamar Odom               2001-02      -0.018   0.113    0.08     0.131     
45    Anthony Davis            2015-16      0.593    0.722    0.689    0.129     
46    Carmelo Anthony          2006-07      0.195    0.324    0.292    0.129     
47    John Havlicek            1962-63      0.059    0.181    0.151    0.122     
48    Marcus Camby             1996-97      0.057    0.179    0.148    0.122     
49    Dwight Howard            2007-08      0.309    0.422    0.394    0.113     
50    Tim Duncan               1998-99      0.594    0.705    0.677    0.111     
51    Chauncey Billups         1998-99      0.282    0.392    0.365    0.11     
52    Tom Heinsohn             1956-57      0.088    0.198    0.17     0.11     
53    Maurice Cheeks           1978-79      0.083    0.19     0.163    0.107     
54    Michael Cooper           1978-79      -0.045   0.062    0.035    0.107     
55    Devin Booker             2018-19      0.097    0.197    0.172    0.1   
56    Terry Cummings           1983-84      0.066    0.166    0.141    0.1   
57    Otis Thorpe              1984-85      -0.035   0.064    0.039    0.099     
58    Phil Chenier             1972-73      -0.049   0.05     0.025    0.099     
59    Vince Carter             1998-99      0.279    0.377    0.352    0.098     
60    Doc Rivers               1983-84      0.1      0.197    0.173    0.097     
61    Dave Cowens              1970-71      0.034    0.131    0.107    0.097     
62    Brad Daugherty           1987-88      0.166    0.261    0.237    0.095     
63    Mark Aguirre             1981-82      0.063    0.158    0.134    0.095     
64    Deron Williams           2006-07      0.105    0.199    0.175    0.094     
65    Willis Reed              1964-65      0.135    0.228    0.205    0.093     
66    Rolando Blackman         1981-82      -0.042   0.048    0.025    0.09     
67    Amar'e Stoudemire        2004-05      0.29     0.369    0.35     0.079     
68    Rashard Lewis            2001-02      0.053    0.131    0.112    0.078     
69    Kevin McHale             1980-81      0.251    0.328    0.309    0.077     
70    Moses Malone             1977-78      0.338    0.413    0.394    0.075     
71    Dirk Nowitzki            2000-01      0.567    0.634    0.617    0.067     
72    Josh Smith               2007-08      0.017    0.083    0.066    0.066     
73    Allen Iverson            1997-98      0.222    0.284    0.268    0.062     
74    Vern Mikkelsen           1950-51      0.186    0.248    0.233    0.062     
75    Wes Unseld               1968-69      0.066    0.122    0.108    0.056     
76    Tim Hardaway             1989-90      0.155    0.21     0.196    0.055     
77    Scottie Pippen           1987-88      0.241    0.292    0.279    0.051     
78    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar      1969-70      0.79     0.84     0.828    0.05     
79    Mike Conley              2009-10      0.121    0.169    0.157    0.048     
80    Pau Gasol                2002-03      0.337    0.384    0.372    0.047     
81    Bill Laimbeer            1980-81      0.025    0.072    0.06     0.047     
82    Bill Sharman             1950-51      0.216    0.262    0.25     0.046     
83    Al Horford               2008-09      0.187    0.233    0.221    0.046     
84    George Gervin            1976-77      0.293    0.338    0.327    0.045     
85    Toni Kukoč               1993-94      0.151    0.196    0.185    0.045     
86    Julius Erving            1976-77      0.457    0.497    0.487    0.04     
87    Blake Griffin            2011-12      0.265    0.301    0.292    0.036     
88    Rick Barry               1966-67      0.331    0.366    0.357    0.035     
89    Rasheed Wallace          1996-97      0.099    0.133    0.124    0.034     
90    Paul Pressey             1982-83      0.015    0.048    0.04     0.033     
91    Kobe Bryant              2000-01      0.487    0.519    0.511    0.032     
92    Jason Kidd               1995-96      0.159    0.189    0.182    0.03     
93    Steve Nash               1996-97      0.177    0.206    0.199    0.029     
94    Patrick Ewing            1985-86      0.295    0.323    0.316    0.028     
95    Mookie Blaylock          1989-90      0.026    0.053    0.046    0.027     
96    Lou Hudson               1966-67      0.069    0.093    0.087    0.024     
97    Paul Pierce              1999-00      0.277    0.3      0.294    0.023     
98    Anthony Mason            1989-90      0.016    0.038    0.032    0.022     
99    Zelmo Beaty              1962-63      0.092    0.112    0.107    0.02     
100   Shaquille O'Neal         1994-95      0.711    0.73     0.725    0.019     
101   Nikola Jokić             2017-18      0.887    0.905    0.901    0.018     
102   Bobby Jones              1976-77      0.272    0.29     0.286    0.018     
103   Larry Foust              1950-51      0.25     0.267    0.263    0.017     
104   Paul Millsap             2007-08      0.14     0.155    0.152    0.015     
105   Chet Walker              1962-63      0.056    0.071    0.067    0.015     
106   Nate McMillan            1986-87      0.019    0.033    0.029    0.014     
107   Paul George              2012-13      0.222    0.234    0.231    0.012     
108   Jrue Holiday             2012-13      0.027    0.038    0.035    0.011     
109   Oscar Robertson          1960-61      0.615    0.625    0.622    0.01     
110   Charles Barkley          1985-86      0.629    0.637    0.635    0.008     
111   Joakim Noah              2007-08      0.114    0.122    0.12     0.008     
112   LeBron James             2006-07      0.892    0.896    0.895    0.004     
113   Magic Johnson            1981-82      0.632    0.634    0.634    0.002     
114   Kyrie Irving             2014-15      0.374    0.372    0.372    -0.002   
115   Kiki Vandeweghe          1980-81      0.074    0.072    0.073    -0.002   
116   Clyde Lovellette         1953-54      0.36     0.355    0.357    -0.005   
117   Tyson Chandler           2004-05      0.037    0.032    0.033    -0.005   
118   Michael Jordan           1985-86      1.000    0.993    0.995    -0.007   
119   Clyde Drexler            1984-85      0.377    0.367    0.37     -0.01     
120   Bob Cousy                1950-51      0.152    0.141    0.144    -0.011   
121   Jack Sikma               1977-78      0.09     0.078    0.081    -0.012   
122   Manu Ginóbili            2002-03      0.471    0.451    0.456    -0.02     
123   Jason Terry              1999-00      0.049    0.029    0.034    -0.02     
124   DeAndre Jordan           2010-11      0.183    0.162    0.167    -0.021   
125   Marques Johnson          1978-79      0.204    0.182    0.188    -0.022   
126   Chris Bosh               2006-07      0.221    0.196    0.202    -0.025   
127   Vlade Divac              1990-91      0.074    0.048    0.054    -0.026   
128   Wilt Chamberlain         1959-60      0.913    0.883    0.891    -0.03     
129   Shawn Marion             2000-01      0.224    0.191    0.199    -0.033   
130   Dwyane Wade              2003-04      0.533    0.499    0.507    -0.034   
131   Stephen Curry            2010-11      0.603    0.568    0.576    -0.035   
132   Adrian Dantley           1977-78      0.375    0.338    0.347    -0.037   
133   Rod Strickland           1988-89      0.105    0.066    0.076    -0.039   
134   Jimmy Butler             2011-12      0.343    0.302    0.313    -0.041   
135   Larry Bird               1979-80      0.579    0.533    0.544    -0.046   
136   Karl Malone              1985-86      0.392    0.338    0.351    -0.054   
137   Peja Stojaković          1999-00      0.099    0.044    0.058    -0.055   
138   Gary Payton              1990-91      0.214    0.155    0.17     -0.059   
139   Alonzo Mourning          1992-93      0.266    0.206    0.221    -0.06     
140   John Stockton            1984-85      0.472    0.411    0.426    -0.061   
141   Kevin Garnett            1998-99      0.607    0.542    0.558    -0.065   
142   LaMarcus Aldridge        2007-08      0.146    0.075    0.093    -0.071   
143   Clint Capela             2016-17      0.356    0.282    0.3      -0.074   
144   Alvan Adams              1976-77      0.112    0.037    0.056    -0.075   
145   Chris Paul               2007-08      0.793    0.714    0.734    -0.079   
146   Giannis Antetokounmpo    2016-17      0.821    0.734    0.756    -0.087   
147   Kevin Johnson            1988-89      0.315    0.227    0.249    -0.088   
148   Paul Westphal            1972-73      0.216    0.128    0.15     -0.088   
149   Rudy Gobert              2014-15      0.418    0.329    0.351    -0.089   
150   Bob McAdoo               1973-74      0.262    0.17     0.193    -0.092   
151   Jerry Lucas              1963-64      0.132    0.039    0.062    -0.093   
152   Kevin Durant             2010-11      0.734    0.64     0.664    -0.094   
153   Robert Parish            1976-77      0.193    0.089    0.115    -0.104   
154   Damian Lillard           2012-13      0.341    0.236    0.262    -0.105   
155   Chris Webber             1995-96      0.243    0.134    0.161    -0.109   
156   Carlos Boozer            2003-04      0.17     0.04     0.072    -0.13     
157   James Harden             2011-12      0.692    0.56     0.593    -0.132   
158   Russell Westbrook        2010-11      0.46     0.321    0.356    -0.139   
159   Bob Pettit               1954-55      0.605    0.458    0.495    -0.147   
160   Dominique Wilkins        1982-83      0.251    0.1      0.138    -0.151   
161   Tony Parker              2004-05      0.182    0.029    0.067    -0.153   
162   Bailey Howell            1959-60      0.283    0.129    0.168    -0.154   
163   Kyle Lowry               2008-09      0.199    0.04     0.079    -0.159   
164   Kevin Love               2010-11      0.326    0.16     0.202    -0.166   
165   Mark Price               1986-87      0.271    0.084    0.131    -0.187   
166   Sidney Moncrief          1979-80      0.274    0.085    0.132    -0.189   
167   David Robinson           1989-90      0.813    0.57     0.63     -0.243   
168   Joel Embiid              2016-17      0.64     0.298    0.384    -0.342   


[eminence]

The pithiness is no worry, but that’s not the media tone I got in my part of the country (closest team Wolves). Here I felt a push for a Shaq/Kobe duo as the best team with a Duncan/KG rivalry as the other contenders for best player with Shaq.

Felt like they were looking for an excuse to put Kobe on that level, but could never quite do it.

Dirk, undeservedly, didn’t get much air-time up here.

During my formative sports years.

Appreciate the thoughts, and I'll certainly acknowledge that as an Angeleno there was a bias toward the Lakers. I will also emphasize that this was the era that drove me away from my Laker fandom. They didn't get replaced by another team (my feelings about the Lakers are strong and complex in a way that really can only be matched by the Chargers who left my hometown of San Diego), I just got really, really sick of the Laker drama and all the excuses from those around me.

This to say: I may indeed have a bias of attention toward the Lakers from that era, but I didn't see them through rose-tinted glasses. I shocked myself in the 2001 playoffs cheering for the Lakers to lose just because I thought they deserved it...only to see them reach a level that I had never seen a team reach before, and dominance-wise, have only ever seen challenged by the '16-17 Warriors.

One thing though: When was this that Duncan/KG felt like a rivalry to challenge Shaq? I would suggest that really began in earnest 2002-ish at a time when all agreed that Shaq didn't look as good as he had in the years before.

Duncan & KG were seen as eventual challengers to the throne before that, and Duncan winning a chip so early temporarily put him into a conversation with Shaq, but after the 2001 playoffs, it wasn't seen so much as Shaq vs Duncan vs KG as it was Shaq vs Kobe or Shaq's talent vs Shaq's attitude.

I'd agree KG didn't enter into it until later (really only '03/'04), but that's not how I remember it for Duncan. And I also expect the KG push for crown was a mostly local phenomenon.

My rough memories of the reporting here around the best-player title belt:
'98 prior: MJ duh, leaves the belt open after, and not seemingly a clear leader to take it.
'99: Up here it seemed Duncan claimed the crown.
'00: Shaq puts in his claim, but Duncan is out injured in the playoffs, it's seen as a tough call between the two.
'01: That playoff run did give it to Shaq pretty cleanly
'02: Duncan was seen as making it a question again this go around, but Shaq finished it so he got to keep it.
'03: Duncan took the crown back and pretty much held it here until '09 when LeBron really emerged while Duncan was falling off.

[therealbig3]

The pithiness is no worry, but that’s not the media tone I got in my part of the country (closest team Wolves). Here I felt a push for a Shaq/Kobe duo as the best team with a Duncan/KG rivalry as the other contenders for best player with Shaq.

Felt like they were looking for an excuse to put Kobe on that level, but could never quite do it.

Dirk, undeservedly, didn’t get much air-time up here.

During my formative sports years.

Appreciate the thoughts, and I'll certainly acknowledge that as an Angeleno there was a bias toward the Lakers. I will also emphasize that this was the era that drove me away from my Laker fandom. They didn't get replaced by another team (my feelings about the Lakers are strong and complex in a way that really can only be matched by the Chargers who left my hometown of San Diego), I just got really, really sick of the Laker drama and all the excuses from those around me.

This to say: I may indeed have a bias of attention toward the Lakers from that era, but I didn't see them through rose-tinted glasses. I shocked myself in the 2001 playoffs cheering for the Lakers to lose just because I thought they deserved it...only to see them reach a level that I had never seen a team reach before, and dominance-wise, have only ever seen challenged by the '16-17 Warriors.

One thing though: When was this that Duncan/KG felt like a rivalry to challenge Shaq? I would suggest that really began in earnest 2002-ish at a time when all agreed that Shaq didn't look as good as he had in the years before.

Duncan & KG were seen as eventual challengers to the throne before that, and Duncan winning a chip so early temporarily put him into a conversation with Shaq, but after the 2001 playoffs, it wasn't seen so much as Shaq vs Duncan vs KG as it was Shaq vs Kobe or Shaq's talent vs Shaq's attitude.

I'd agree KG didn't enter into it until later (really only '03/'04), but that's not how I remember it for Duncan. And I also expect the KG push for crown was a mostly local phenomenon.

My rough memories of the reporting here around the best-player title belt:
'98 prior: MJ duh, leaves the belt open after, and not seemingly a clear leader to take it.
'99: Up here it seemed Duncan claimed the crown.
'00: Shaq puts in his claim, but Duncan is out injured in the playoffs, it's seen as a tough call between the two.
'01: That playoff run did give it to Shaq pretty cleanly
'02: Duncan was seen as making it a question again this go around, but Shaq finished it so he got to keep it.
'03: Duncan took the crown back and pretty much held it here until '09 when LeBron really emerged while Duncan was falling off.

Shaq was SO dominant in 2000 though, in a way we had never seen Duncan be. I don't remember serious consideration for Duncan being on par after that year. Then they got smashed in 2001 and it was pretty much over in terms of that conversation. In 2002...felt like a LeBron vs KD in 2014 year, where the playoffs kind of proved who the best really was. Shaq was clearly coasting during the RS, then in the playoffs he reminded everyone how great he was again. Duncan put up a valiant effort...in a 5 game loss, in which he actually had a very up and down series. Shaq ends the year with another title and another dominant Finals performance...again, don't think there was serious conversation between the two at this point.

After this, yes, Duncan more or less holds the advantage over Shaq in terms of media consensus (except for 05), but this was also with the understanding that Shaq from 00-02 was on another level compared to Duncan, and that Duncan pulled ahead because of conditioning and age. Shaq was the one discussed with Jordan and Wilt as being the most dominant individual player ever at his peak, not Duncan.

Furthermore, I think national consensus certainly had some combination of Kobe, LeBron, Shaq, and Garnett over Duncan (or at least on the same level) in any year you pick outside of maybe 2003. I don't remember him clearly being considered the best in any other season...and Shaq was still considered the "actual" best because of what he showed in previous playoff runs.

[ijspeelman]

Now as I've learned how Wilt's scoring wasn't really useful at all and was actually an impediment, well he's falling further. I have him #15 on my all-time list right now and basically in a tier with the 16-23 players. I wouldn't be surprised if I ultimately drop him further and he settles around #20. He's fool's gold. He's basically a great defender who was meh on offense and didn't get it done in the playoffs, that's it.

"Wilt's scoring was an impediment". Prove it.

Having him #15 all time just proves your arrogance and intellectual indolence. Again, ridiculous. You've read nothing about him. You've never done any research, read book and contemporary articles, done breakdowns of his skill sets, and conducted intensive and 3 dimensional study of him, as others have here. You just look at these abstruse, ethereal forumlas and make all your conclusions.

Regarding him being "meh" in the playoffs. Ridiculous, again.

Do you care that Wilt faced the greatest defenses in NBA history, on average, in the playoffs, for example? No. Of course you don't.

This is becoming more of a personal attack than a talk about basketball.

It doesn't matter if iggymcfrack ranks Wilt #15 or out of the top 100, its not deserving of personal attacks.

How about starting with a rebuttal to his facts. You originally stated:

Wilt put up 40/25/3.5/10 for 7 years...
He has 72 all time records, 68 to himself

Their rebuttal was calling out that those ridiculous stat-lines didn't lead to great offense:

Warriors team offensive rating
1958/59: 86.7 (8/8)- year before Wilt joins team
1959/60: 88.7 (7/8)- year Wilt joins
1960/61: 91.2 (6/8)
1961/62: 94.5 (4/9)
1962/63: 95.2 (5/9)
1963/64: 93.0 (7/9)
1964/65: 87.7 (9/9)- Wilt traded midseason with the team in last place with no chance to make the playoffs
1965/66: 92.6 (7/9)- year after Wilt leaves

76ers team offensive rating
1963/64: 93.8 (6/9)
1964/65: 94.1 (5/9)- Wilt arrives midseason in a trade where the Sixers give up very little for him
1965/66: 95.3 (6/9)

Where's the impact? Why does it seem to have a neutral effect when Wilt leaves or joins a team? Why did his teams struggle so much offensively when he was putting up these huge numbers? And if the volume scoring doesn't help the offense, then what good is it? Wilt did play on some very good offenses, but never as a volume scorer. After 1966, he would never average 30 PPG again. If him scoring 40-50 PPG was simply a strategic error, why should we reward him for it?

Now, you will have to find a way to show Wilt did have incredible offensive impact even if his team's ORTG didn't show it (or that is defense was so good it makes up for any deficiency on offense).

Wilt was consistently above league average efficiency offensively:

Spoiler:

Season rTS% rFGA
1959-60 0.03 6.958
1960-61 0.056 5.458
1961-62 0.073 11.358
1962-63 0.087 8.258
1963-64 0.074 4.458
1964-65 0.05 4.758
1964-65 0.032 8.358
1964-65 0.077 0.758
1965-66 0.084 1.258
1966-67 0.174 -6.742
1967-68 0.094 -5.042
1968-69 0.101 -7.142
1969-70 0.091 -1.742
1970-71 0.095 -5.742
1971-72 0.147 -10.042
1972-73 0.226 -11.942

He also had insane volume stats in his first 6 years when comparing against the league average in FGA/36 (do not cite the rFGA/36 to compare to other eras as this is not including pace and will make Wilt's numbers look insane). All these numbers tell me is that individually on the floor, Wilt was a dominant scorer in his first 6 years.

However, I have two big issues with Wilt offensively and both issues affected his teammates.

1. Wilt held the ball a lot and struggled to generate offense for his teammates with his own scoring. A lot of elite offensive producers use their offense to bend the defense and create easy ones for their teammates (think MJ passing out of a double to Kerr, any LeBron kick-out, Jokic always, etc.)

Watch on YouTube

Wilt had two modes, passing and then shooting. First, his team would run the floor around him as he sat in the post and he looked for any openings. If there were none, he would shoot. This is a fine way to play basketball, but when you are the most dominant scorer of your era and you are not generating shots for others with your creation, typically your teammates are getting worse shots (see this article by your favorite analyst Ben Taylor, https://fansided.com/2017/08/11/nylon-calculus-measuring-creation-box-score/).

Watch on YouTube

2. Wilt had a tendency to clog the lane which lead to a lack of driving/cutting lanes for his teammates. He would run from block to block on the floor and play from there. Wilt played almost every minute of every game and some assume this was his way of conserving energy, but effectively left the easiest shot for his teammates much harder than normal.

Watch on YouTube

Both of these things really lower his offensive impact in my eyes and shed some light onto why his team's offenses were not typically above league average when he was their primary scorer despite his impressive stat lines. Paul Arizin was his teammate for those first three years and I think his three original all-star teammates numbers tell a light story.

Paul Arizin

Spoiler:

Season rTS% rFGA
1950-51 0.084 N/A
1951-52 0.108 2.875
1954-55 0.023 3.239583333
1955-56 0.068 4.491666667
1956-57 0.066 4.714583333
1957-58 0.03 3.322916667
1958-59 0.062 3.55 <- year before Wilt
1959-60 0.029 1.358
1960-61 0.037 2.391139241
1961-62 0.007 3.139375

Tom Gola

Spoiler:

Season rTS% rFGA
1955-56 0.038 -4.608333333
1957-58 0.033 -3.277083333
1958-59 0.027 -3.45 <- year before Wilt
1959-60 0.032 -5.642
1960-61 0.025 -3.908860759
1961-62 -0.006 -4.960625
1962-63 0.012 -4.485625
1962-63 0.007 -4.585625 <- leaves Wilt in trade
1962-63 0.014 -4.485625
1963-64 -0.003 -4.76125
1964-65 0.027 -5.475625
1965-66 0.027 -6.634476844

Guy Rodgers

Spoiler:

Season rTS% rFGA
1958-59 -0.044 -3.05 <- year before Wilt
1959-60 -0.049 -5.342
1960-61 -0.038 -3.608860759
1961-62 -0.084 -5.960625
1962-63 -0.063 -2.485625
1963-64 -0.068 -2.56125
1964-65 -0.058 1.324375 <- Wilt leaves mid-season via trade
1965-66 -0.068 4.165523156
1966-67 -0.033 0.820107444
1967-68 -0.082 -5.131368389
1967-68 -0.15 0.068631611
1967-68 -0.073 -5.531368389
1968-69 -0.058 -0.372169168
1969-70 -0.071 -5.6037553

[lessthanjake]

To me, there’s a strong case that Wilt somewhat surprisingly didn’t have particularly positive offensive impact, despite scoring a ton at high efficiency. This is likely due to things people have talked about—holding the ball too much, clogging the lane, etc.

I do wonder how much of this was a coaching issue and how much was an inherent style issue. Did Wilt *need* to hold the ball that much in order to be as efficient as he was, or was he mostly just doing so because his coaches lacked enough of an understanding to tell him to stop? This was an early era of basketball, and so I wouldn’t discount the possibility that people just didn’t know how to use Wilt and that he didn’t intrinsically understand how best to use his own skills (or did and was actively coached to do something inferior).

In terms of ranking, I’m not sure this matters to me, since I don’t think I can rank a player based on how they might’ve played with better coaching (as opposed to how they did play in reality), but it does perhaps highlight how coaching can help or hurt players in terms of meeting their full potential. For instance, I’m nominating Steph, but I have my doubts that I’d be discussing Steph anywhere near to now if Mark Jackson had stayed coach of the Warriors—Steph was extremely good in 2013-2014, but I’m skeptical he’d have been able to make the further leap he made after that with Mark Jackson (or with any other coach that wouldn’t have figured out how to better utilize Steph’s unique skill set). I don’t intend to rate players based on my own perceived feeling that they may not have met their full potential, or any feeling that they were lucky to get coaches that understood how to get them to their full potential—I will rate people on how they played in reality. But Wilt strikes me as a player that probably will get rated lower by me as a result of that.

[trelos6]

Spoiler:

Iverson may have won an unjustified MVP, but Shaq and Duncan were still right there in the voting. The analogy would only work if Shaq or Duncan's voting reflected Hakeem's year after year. A 1 year abberation, followed by a correction from the voters, shows the media adjusts quickly most times. That's why Iverson only has one top 3 finish ever. Hakeem wasn't getting a rough vote once or twice, it was every year almost.

I know this is extremely off topic but this had me interested in how Kobe compared to Hakeem Shaq and TD in mvp voting placement since I have the 4 next to each other all time and this seems somewhat interesting even if I don’t really value it

MVPs won

TD: 2
Shaq: 1
Kobe: 1
Hakeem: 1

Top 3 placements

TD: 5
Kobe: 5
Shaq: 5
Hakeem: 2

Top 5 placements

Kobe: 11
TD: 9
Shaq: 8
Hakeem: 6



Top 7 placements

TD: 11
Shaq: 11
Kobe: 11
Hakeem: 10

Top 10 placements

TD: 13
Shaq: 13
Kobe: 12
Hakeem: 9

Obviously not gonna treat this as anything close to definitive but I do find this interesting (would like to not that all 4 have multiple years where missed time caused them to slide in mvp voting).

I think it can be argued that Hakeem played at an MVP level from 1987-95. That's 9 seasons. 2 or 3 more seasons also as a fringe candidate.

[rk2023]

Normalized Box Composite Age 22-31 Playoff Risers/Fallers

*just compares postseason to regular season, some guys played more minutes in the playoffs in lesser seasons and some played more in their best seasons, this doesn't adjust for that. some guys missed the minutes cut-off in the playoffs.

Code: Select all

Rk    Player Name              Begin Year   RS Avg   PS Avg   Blend    PS/RS Diff
1     Ray Allen                1997-98      0.226    0.604    0.509    0.378     
2     Reggie Miller            1987-88      0.245    0.565    0.485    0.32     
3     Frank Ramsey             1954-55      0.049    0.363    0.284    0.314     
4     Isiah Thomas             1983-84      0.076    0.352    0.283    0.276     
5     Hakeem Olajuwon          1984-85      0.458    0.731    0.663    0.273     
6     Rajon Rondo              2008-09      -0.035   0.238    0.169    0.273     
7     Rik Smits                1988-89      -0.032   0.23     0.165    0.262     
8     Anfernee Hardaway        1993-94      0.121    0.371    0.309    0.25     
9     Shawn Kemp               1991-92      0.151    0.392    0.332    0.241     
10    Gus Williams             1975-76      0.123    0.36     0.301    0.237     
11    Bill Russell             1956-57      0.329    0.565    0.506    0.236     
12    Cliff Hagan              1956-57      0.316    0.549    0.491    0.233     
13    Draymond Green           2012-13      -0.001   0.228    0.171    0.229     
14    Walt Frazier             1967-68      0.244    0.463    0.408    0.219     
15    Jerome Kersey            1984-85      -0.026   0.188    0.135    0.214     
16    Dolph Schayes            1950-51      0.526    0.73     0.679    0.204     
17    Cedric Maxwell           1977-78      0.056    0.254    0.204    0.198     
18    Kawhi Leonard            2013-14      0.627    0.821    0.773    0.194     
19    Ben Wallace              1996-97      0.082    0.276    0.228    0.194     
20    Elvin Hayes              1968-69      0.05     0.244    0.195    0.194     
21    Jerry West               1960-61      0.502    0.695    0.647    0.193     
22    Don Nelson               1962-63      0.059    0.248    0.201    0.189     
23    Charlie Ward             1994-95      -0.022   0.167    0.12     0.189     
24    George Mikan             1948-49      0.781    0.969    0.922    0.188     
25    Kerry Kittles            1996-97      -0.018   0.17     0.123    0.188     
26    Steve Smith              1991-92      0.014    0.2      0.154    0.186     
27    Hersey Hawkins           1988-89      0.028    0.213    0.166    0.185     
28    Bob Dandridge            1969-70      -0.002   0.181    0.135    0.183     
29    Walter Davis             1977-78      0.134    0.311    0.266    0.177     
30    Terry Porter             1985-86      0.149    0.325    0.281    0.176     
31    Serge Ibaka              2011-12      -0.03    0.143    0.099    0.173     
32    Marc Gasol               2008-09      0.145    0.317    0.274    0.172     
33    Clifford Ray             1971-72      -0.021   0.15     0.107    0.171     
34    Fred Brown               1971-72      0.036    0.202    0.16     0.166     
35    Horace Grant             1987-88      0.072    0.237    0.196    0.165     
36    Jeff Hornacek            1986-87      0.043    0.205    0.165    0.162     
37    Robert Horry             1992-93      -0.032   0.119    0.081    0.151     
38    Elgin Baylor             1958-59      0.338    0.483    0.447    0.145     
39    Sam Jones                1957-58      0.253    0.398    0.361    0.145     
40    George Yardley           1953-54      0.288    0.43     0.394    0.142     
41    James Worthy             1983-84      0.067    0.207    0.172    0.14     
42    Tobias Harris            2014-15      -0.049   0.089    0.055    0.138     
43    Sam Perkins              1984-85      -0.039   0.096    0.062    0.135     
44    Lamar Odom               2001-02      -0.018   0.113    0.08     0.131     
45    Anthony Davis            2015-16      0.593    0.722    0.689    0.129     
46    Carmelo Anthony          2006-07      0.195    0.324    0.292    0.129     
47    John Havlicek            1962-63      0.059    0.181    0.151    0.122     
48    Marcus Camby             1996-97      0.057    0.179    0.148    0.122     
49    Dwight Howard            2007-08      0.309    0.422    0.394    0.113     
50    Tim Duncan               1998-99      0.594    0.705    0.677    0.111     
51    Chauncey Billups         1998-99      0.282    0.392    0.365    0.11     
52    Tom Heinsohn             1956-57      0.088    0.198    0.17     0.11     
53    Maurice Cheeks           1978-79      0.083    0.19     0.163    0.107     
54    Michael Cooper           1978-79      -0.045   0.062    0.035    0.107     
55    Devin Booker             2018-19      0.097    0.197    0.172    0.1   
56    Terry Cummings           1983-84      0.066    0.166    0.141    0.1   
57    Otis Thorpe              1984-85      -0.035   0.064    0.039    0.099     
58    Phil Chenier             1972-73      -0.049   0.05     0.025    0.099     
59    Vince Carter             1998-99      0.279    0.377    0.352    0.098     
60    Doc Rivers               1983-84      0.1      0.197    0.173    0.097     
61    Dave Cowens              1970-71      0.034    0.131    0.107    0.097     
62    Brad Daugherty           1987-88      0.166    0.261    0.237    0.095     
63    Mark Aguirre             1981-82      0.063    0.158    0.134    0.095     
64    Deron Williams           2006-07      0.105    0.199    0.175    0.094     
65    Willis Reed              1964-65      0.135    0.228    0.205    0.093     
66    Rolando Blackman         1981-82      -0.042   0.048    0.025    0.09     
67    Amar'e Stoudemire        2004-05      0.29     0.369    0.35     0.079     
68    Rashard Lewis            2001-02      0.053    0.131    0.112    0.078     
69    Kevin McHale             1980-81      0.251    0.328    0.309    0.077     
70    Moses Malone             1977-78      0.338    0.413    0.394    0.075     
71    Dirk Nowitzki            2000-01      0.567    0.634    0.617    0.067     
72    Josh Smith               2007-08      0.017    0.083    0.066    0.066     
73    Allen Iverson            1997-98      0.222    0.284    0.268    0.062     
74    Vern Mikkelsen           1950-51      0.186    0.248    0.233    0.062     
75    Wes Unseld               1968-69      0.066    0.122    0.108    0.056     
76    Tim Hardaway             1989-90      0.155    0.21     0.196    0.055     
77    Scottie Pippen           1987-88      0.241    0.292    0.279    0.051     
78    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar      1969-70      0.79     0.84     0.828    0.05     
79    Mike Conley              2009-10      0.121    0.169    0.157    0.048     
80    Pau Gasol                2002-03      0.337    0.384    0.372    0.047     
81    Bill Laimbeer            1980-81      0.025    0.072    0.06     0.047     
82    Bill Sharman             1950-51      0.216    0.262    0.25     0.046     
83    Al Horford               2008-09      0.187    0.233    0.221    0.046     
84    George Gervin            1976-77      0.293    0.338    0.327    0.045     
85    Toni Kukoč               1993-94      0.151    0.196    0.185    0.045     
86    Julius Erving            1976-77      0.457    0.497    0.487    0.04     
87    Blake Griffin            2011-12      0.265    0.301    0.292    0.036     
88    Rick Barry               1966-67      0.331    0.366    0.357    0.035     
89    Rasheed Wallace          1996-97      0.099    0.133    0.124    0.034     
90    Paul Pressey             1982-83      0.015    0.048    0.04     0.033     
91    Kobe Bryant              2000-01      0.487    0.519    0.511    0.032     
92    Jason Kidd               1995-96      0.159    0.189    0.182    0.03     
93    Steve Nash               1996-97      0.177    0.206    0.199    0.029     
94    Patrick Ewing            1985-86      0.295    0.323    0.316    0.028     
95    Mookie Blaylock          1989-90      0.026    0.053    0.046    0.027     
96    Lou Hudson               1966-67      0.069    0.093    0.087    0.024     
97    Paul Pierce              1999-00      0.277    0.3      0.294    0.023     
98    Anthony Mason            1989-90      0.016    0.038    0.032    0.022     
99    Zelmo Beaty              1962-63      0.092    0.112    0.107    0.02     
100   Shaquille O'Neal         1994-95      0.711    0.73     0.725    0.019     
101   Nikola Jokić             2017-18      0.887    0.905    0.901    0.018     
102   Bobby Jones              1976-77      0.272    0.29     0.286    0.018     
103   Larry Foust              1950-51      0.25     0.267    0.263    0.017     
104   Paul Millsap             2007-08      0.14     0.155    0.152    0.015     
105   Chet Walker              1962-63      0.056    0.071    0.067    0.015     
106   Nate McMillan            1986-87      0.019    0.033    0.029    0.014     
107   Paul George              2012-13      0.222    0.234    0.231    0.012     
108   Jrue Holiday             2012-13      0.027    0.038    0.035    0.011     
109   Oscar Robertson          1960-61      0.615    0.625    0.622    0.01     
110   Charles Barkley          1985-86      0.629    0.637    0.635    0.008     
111   Joakim Noah              2007-08      0.114    0.122    0.12     0.008     
112   LeBron James             2006-07      0.892    0.896    0.895    0.004     
113   Magic Johnson            1981-82      0.632    0.634    0.634    0.002     
114   Kyrie Irving             2014-15      0.374    0.372    0.372    -0.002   
115   Kiki Vandeweghe          1980-81      0.074    0.072    0.073    -0.002   
116   Clyde Lovellette         1953-54      0.36     0.355    0.357    -0.005   
117   Tyson Chandler           2004-05      0.037    0.032    0.033    -0.005   
118   Michael Jordan           1985-86      1.000    0.993    0.995    -0.007   
119   Clyde Drexler            1984-85      0.377    0.367    0.37     -0.01     
120   Bob Cousy                1950-51      0.152    0.141    0.144    -0.011   
121   Jack Sikma               1977-78      0.09     0.078    0.081    -0.012   
122   Manu Ginóbili            2002-03      0.471    0.451    0.456    -0.02     
123   Jason Terry              1999-00      0.049    0.029    0.034    -0.02     
124   DeAndre Jordan           2010-11      0.183    0.162    0.167    -0.021   
125   Marques Johnson          1978-79      0.204    0.182    0.188    -0.022   
126   Chris Bosh               2006-07      0.221    0.196    0.202    -0.025   
127   Vlade Divac              1990-91      0.074    0.048    0.054    -0.026   
128   Wilt Chamberlain         1959-60      0.913    0.883    0.891    -0.03     
129   Shawn Marion             2000-01      0.224    0.191    0.199    -0.033   
130   Dwyane Wade              2003-04      0.533    0.499    0.507    -0.034   
131   Stephen Curry            2010-11      0.603    0.568    0.576    -0.035   
132   Adrian Dantley           1977-78      0.375    0.338    0.347    -0.037   
133   Rod Strickland           1988-89      0.105    0.066    0.076    -0.039   
134   Jimmy Butler             2011-12      0.343    0.302    0.313    -0.041   
135   Larry Bird               1979-80      0.579    0.533    0.544    -0.046   
136   Karl Malone              1985-86      0.392    0.338    0.351    -0.054   
137   Peja Stojaković          1999-00      0.099    0.044    0.058    -0.055   
138   Gary Payton              1990-91      0.214    0.155    0.17     -0.059   
139   Alonzo Mourning          1992-93      0.266    0.206    0.221    -0.06     
140   John Stockton            1984-85      0.472    0.411    0.426    -0.061   
141   Kevin Garnett            1998-99      0.607    0.542    0.558    -0.065   
142   LaMarcus Aldridge        2007-08      0.146    0.075    0.093    -0.071   
143   Clint Capela             2016-17      0.356    0.282    0.3      -0.074   
144   Alvan Adams              1976-77      0.112    0.037    0.056    -0.075   
145   Chris Paul               2007-08      0.793    0.714    0.734    -0.079   
146   Giannis Antetokounmpo    2016-17      0.821    0.734    0.756    -0.087   
147   Kevin Johnson            1988-89      0.315    0.227    0.249    -0.088   
148   Paul Westphal            1972-73      0.216    0.128    0.15     -0.088   
149   Rudy Gobert              2014-15      0.418    0.329    0.351    -0.089   
150   Bob McAdoo               1973-74      0.262    0.17     0.193    -0.092   
151   Jerry Lucas              1963-64      0.132    0.039    0.062    -0.093   
152   Kevin Durant             2010-11      0.734    0.64     0.664    -0.094   
153   Robert Parish            1976-77      0.193    0.089    0.115    -0.104   
154   Damian Lillard           2012-13      0.341    0.236    0.262    -0.105   
155   Chris Webber             1995-96      0.243    0.134    0.161    -0.109   
156   Carlos Boozer            2003-04      0.17     0.04     0.072    -0.13     
157   James Harden             2011-12      0.692    0.56     0.593    -0.132   
158   Russell Westbrook        2010-11      0.46     0.321    0.356    -0.139   
159   Bob Pettit               1954-55      0.605    0.458    0.495    -0.147   
160   Dominique Wilkins        1982-83      0.251    0.1      0.138    -0.151   
161   Tony Parker              2004-05      0.182    0.029    0.067    -0.153   
162   Bailey Howell            1959-60      0.283    0.129    0.168    -0.154   
163   Kyle Lowry               2008-09      0.199    0.04     0.079    -0.159   
164   Kevin Love               2010-11      0.326    0.16     0.202    -0.166   
165   Mark Price               1986-87      0.271    0.084    0.131    -0.187   
166   Sidney Moncrief          1979-80      0.274    0.085    0.132    -0.189   
167   David Robinson           1989-90      0.813    0.57     0.63     -0.243   
168   Joel Embiid              2016-17      0.64     0.298    0.384    -0.342   


Cool work, thank you very much for sharing! May have missed a more detailed, process-specific of this methodology earlier - but am curious to know the input variables and what/how factors are being weighted in this approach.

Some higher-level thoughts:
- I am quite surprised to see Jordan/James at 118 and 112 respectively. On the other hand, when each had such a potent Regular Season offensive baseline - such is hard to maintain as competition and intensity increases.

- Not too surprised by the Durant, Embiid, Robinson placements on here (amongst others) - as those are players whose resiliencies I question for each of their respective reasons.

- Pleasantly surprised to see West as high as he is, as he was often facing the Russell Celtic squads/defenses in the finals while being an underratedly impactful, proficient regular season player (on a /play basis almost always, and in aggregate when healthy over the course of a year). When it comes to All-Time+ candidates, him / Mikan / Russell / Hakeem all cracking the top 25 and simultaneously grading the highest (considerably so) out of players at this threshold of goodness makes sense due to each of the four being known for resiliency & PS translation in some essence.

- Ray and Reggie topping the chart, along with ace defenders in Frazier/ D. Green/ Wallace/ Leonard all grading out in the top 20 *could* be a signal for the importance for scalability / ceiling-raising conducive traits (eg. defense, off-ball scoring & shot-making, impacting the box score in ways not named volume scoring) could be pathways in making one a notable "playoff riser" given a solid situation to play in.

[rk2023]

Spoiler:

Iverson may have won an unjustified MVP, but Shaq and Duncan were still right there in the voting. The analogy would only work if Shaq or Duncan's voting reflected Hakeem's year after year. A 1 year abberation, followed by a correction from the voters, shows the media adjusts quickly most times. That's why Iverson only has one top 3 finish ever. Hakeem wasn't getting a rough vote once or twice, it was every year almost.

I know this is extremely off topic but this had me interested in how Kobe compared to Hakeem Shaq and TD in mvp voting placement since I have the 4 next to each other all time and this seems somewhat interesting even if I don’t really value it

MVPs won

TD: 2
Shaq: 1
Kobe: 1
Hakeem: 1

Top 3 placements

TD: 5
Kobe: 5
Shaq: 5
Hakeem: 2

Top 5 placements

Kobe: 11
TD: 9
Shaq: 8
Hakeem: 6



Top 7 placements

TD: 11
Shaq: 11
Kobe: 11
Hakeem: 10

Top 10 placements

TD: 13
Shaq: 13
Kobe: 12
Hakeem: 9

Obviously not gonna treat this as anything close to definitive but I do find this interesting (would like to not that all 4 have multiple years where missed time caused them to slide in mvp voting).

I think it can be argued that Hakeem played at an MVP level from 1987-95. That's 9 seasons. 2 or 3 more seasons also as a fringe candidate.

Right. I would loop 1996 in as an MVP level campaign, and 86/97 as 'weak-MVP' level. Of-course, Hakeem exceeds this within the 1987-95 span by reaching a fringe-GOAT level apex imo. Quite the impressive prime quality, where how the aggregate sample of Hakeem's career's body is unfortunately hindered due to playing in a mediocre situation.

[ijspeelman]

To me, there’s a strong case that Wilt somewhat surprisingly didn’t have particularly positive offensive impact, despite scoring a ton at high efficiency. This is likely due to things people have talked about—holding the ball too much, clogging the lane, etc.

I do wonder how much of this was a coaching issue and how much was an inherent style issue. Did Wilt *need* to hold the ball that much in order to be as efficient as he was, or was he mostly just doing so because his coaches lacked enough of an understanding to tell him to stop? This was an early era of basketball, and so I wouldn’t discount the possibility that people just didn’t know how to use Wilt and that he didn’t intrinsically understand how best to use his own skills (or did and was actively coached to do something inferior).

In terms of ranking, I’m not sure this matters to me, since I don’t think I can rank a player based on how they might’ve played with better coaching (as opposed to how they did play in reality), but it does perhaps highlight how coaching can help or hurt players in terms of meeting their full potential. For instance, I’m nominating Steph, but I have my doubts that I’d be discussing Steph anywhere near to now if Mark Jackson had stayed coach of the Warriors—Steph was extremely good in 2013-2014, but I’m skeptical he’d have been able to make the further leap he made after that with Mark Jackson (or with any other coach that wouldn’t have figured out how to better utilize Steph’s unique skill set). I don’t intend to rate players based on my own perceived feeling that they may not have met their full potential, or any feeling that they were lucky to get coaches that understood how to get them to their full potential—I will rate people on how they played in reality. But Wilt strikes me as a player that probably will get rated lower by me as a result of that.

Steph is a good example to Wilt. I think it either highlights our bias towards winning (as our eyes look more towards better teams) or shows that a player needs the right environment to be successful.

Think of what Jokic accomplished this year which went against both of these. The common conception before this year was that you could not win with Jokic as your starting center due to his defense. A lot of this notion came from his team's shortcomings in the preceding two play-offs where they were both missing Murray and the additions made to their defensive line-ups (similar things were said of Dirk until he won with similar defensive additions around him).