What's the strongest data-driven argument for Michael Jordan as GOAT?

[Bergmaniac]

As someone who is neutral in the whole GOAT debate (and mostly bored by it) the Jordan fans has always been way worse than the LeBron fans on this board when it comes to being rude and dismissive of the opinions they disagree with. So many of them act like they are personally offended when someone dares to claim someone else is their GOAT and go on and on how it's impossible for anyone reasonable to hold such an opinion.

[VanWest82]

That's because most people just parrot takes of others and don't think for themselves. They can't even explain why Jordan may be the GOAT without bringing up team accomplishments.

Team accomplishments are relevant in NBA when you're the best guy. We have decades worth of data supporting the notion that the best guys have significant impact on winning.

As for other arguments, it's been pointed out numerous times itt by me and others that it's pretty much impossible to make credible impact data arguments pre-97 because of the lack of data, and so you're left with things like accolades and box score metrics which aren't perfect. This creates a no-win situation for any pre-data era guy tasked with making a nuanced argument. Oh you can't come up with anything better than championships and accolades, well then you're just not thinking for yourself...it's a ridiculous ask in the first place.

Taking a population poll on topics doesn't get you the right answer. It gets you the average answer and that average NBA fan is influenced heavily by the media of what they are watching.

Taking a population poll may not get you the right answer, but when one guy routinely comes out ahead regardless of which population you're sampling (e.g. internet survey, hardcore NBA fans, NBA players, former NBA players/coaches/executives, etc.) then at some point that's just good qualitative evidence.

If you care about an answer on ranks then go to experts, people who can explain which data the value and why, people that can tell you which aspects of the game are critical to winning and why. People who use this reasoning to rank 50-100 different players.

If you're suggesting that posters on the PC board are experts, then we disagree. PC board posters are just fans like the rest of us, only the sample there is very small and highly exposed to groupthink.

If I asked the average NBA fan on the top of their head to rank their top 100 NBA players then you'd get to top 15 before they start struggling. Players they name after top 15 are probably going to have played in the last 10-20 years. If I asked them on a forum then they are probably googling top 100 lists so that they don't feel foolish.

Let's be real, you're searching out old RealGM lists to come up with 100. No one is doing that off the top of their head out of fear of leaving someone out.

[VanWest82]

PC board used to exist as a place of genuine basketball discussion with a niche of historical player comparison. Now it exists as a very strong push back to the idea that Jordan is GOAT. Virtually anywhere else, you get some number > 50% agreement that Jordan is GOAT. Over there it's less than 10% with those making pro Jordan arguments getting shouted down and enduring personal attacks.

Even the latest project result disagrees with, because more than 10% voters voted for Jordan.

I also don't see these personal attacks. None of these "LeBron fanboys" called me a biased Kareem fanboy like Jordan fans did it here.

I think a part of fanbase is way too sensitive to be honest. If I was as sensitive regarding all 1960s or 1970s players, I wouldn't last a day on this board. Imagine Bill Russell fans who have to hear much more ridiculous arguments all the time (and some of you have no problem with them).

You have multiple people itt including me suggesting it's toxic over there and have been subject to numerous personal attacks, and not of the "fanboy" variety. You seriously trying to deny other people's lived experiences?? I'm happy for you that no one on the PC board regularly goes after you like they do with other posters. I'm not surprised you're sticking up for your friends.

It isn't about being sensitive or whatever. When posters crusade against other posters, routinely resort to name calling, tell others they're not welcome to post there, go around trying to get other posters to stop interacting with them, etc., then it makes the place by definition not welcoming and actually toxic when the unwelcome posters come back to participate in other topics only to get run off again. This has happened with a bunch of decent posters over there, myself included.

You guys are trying to make gregoire feel like he's the problem here - he's not. Gregoire was a super nice poster that got bullied and pushed around by the toxic PC board culture and is now finally pushing back. It's a testament to how nice that guy is that it took this long. You guys are gaslighting him.

[twyzted]

I must admit, i just missunderstood, im tired been awake for far to long. There isnt anything wrong with it.

It's nice that you admitted it, I appreciate that.

Yeah mayby, im just used to using the cold hard numbers i.e 30 wins are 30 wins regardless of srs win pace.

Probably, which is why we should have discussions to understand our points of view better, instead of calling posters biased.

Thats the thing. I dont have any problems with most of the posters in that thread.
And i dont agree with using srs pace.

The 2012 Thunder took out a spurs team that was going ballistic in the playoffs after a very strong rs.

Rs srs 7.28
Playoffs srs 5.9
They were blasting the west.
And on the note of this srs thing

Spoiler:

If you examine the SRS of playoff teams in each conference since 2000–01, the disparity becomes very clear. Playoff teams in the West have averaged an SRS of 4.19 over the past 20 seasons, while East playoff teams have averaged 1.99. A 1.99 SRS in the East is (as you might expect), good enough for a 4 seed. But it barely gets you into the Western Conference playoffs. A 7 seed in the East is perfectly average, which tracks. 14th-ish place in the league should be league average. But the average SRS of a WC 7th seed is anything but mediocre. It is 2.37, good enough for a 3–4 seed in the East, an outside contender.
A link to article

That correlates with avg srs of opponents title teams beat from 1990

Team Year F/CF/CSF/FR (Average SRS)

HOU 1995 6.44/5.90/3.85/7.76 (5.9875 average) <---46.8% higher than median
LAL 2001 3.63/7.92/6.07/4.52 (5.535 average)
CHI 1992 7.97/5.56/5.51/1.77 (5.2025 average)
LAL 2002 3.67/7.61/6.28/3.21 (5.1925 average)
LAL 2000 4.15/6.36/5.24/3.04 (4.6975 average)
DAL 2011 6.76/3.81/6.01/1.84 (4.605 average)
CLE 2016 10.38/4.08/3.49/0.43 (4.595 average)
SAS 2014 4.15/6.66/4.44/2.91 (4.54 average)
HOU 1994 6.48/4.10/4.68/2.59 (4.4625 average)
CHI 1996 6.27/5.87/6.30/-0.67 (4.4425 average)
GSW 2022 7.02/3.13/5.37/2.16 (4.42 average)
TOR 2019 6.42/8.04/2.25/0.28 (4.2475 average)
LAL 2010 3.37/4.67/5.33/3.55 (4.23 average)
SAS 2003 4.42/7.90/2.71/1.56 (4.1475 average)
CHI 1993 7.40/5.40/2.24/1.46 (4.125 average)
CHI 1991 5.73/6.25/2.45/1.88 (4.0775 average) <---median
LAL 2009 6.48/3.12/3.73/2.31 (3.9075 average)
SAS 2007 3.33/3.06/7.28/1.69 (3.84 average)
SAS 2005 3.31/7.08/2.59/2.23 (3.8025 average)
DET 1990 6.38/2.13/4.11/1.26 (3.47 average)
MIA 2006 5.96/6.24/1.11/0.51 (3.455 average)
GSW 2017 2.87/7.13/4.00/-0.23 (3.4425 average)
MIA 2012 6.44/2.26/2.59/2.39 (3.42 average)
GSW 2018 0.59/8.21/1.48/2.89 (3.2925 average)
GSW 2015 4.08/3.82/3.62/1.13 (3.1625 average)
CHI 1997 6.94/5.34/3.67/(-3.94) (3.0025 average)
MIL 2021 5.67/2.14/4.24/-0.06 (2.985 average)
DET 2004 4.35/4.93/1.88/0.42 (2.895 average)
BOS 2008 7.34/6.67/-0.53/-2.23 (2.8125 average)
CHI 1998 6.73/3.08/-0.39/-0.43 (2.2475 average)
SAS 1999 1.45/5.67/2.67/-0.17 (2.405 average)
MIA 2013 6.67/3.34/-0.02/-1.83 (2.04 average)
LAL 2020 2.59/2.35/3.13/-0.61 (1.865 average)
DEN 2023 -0.13/0.43/2.97/-0.22 (0.762 average)

Lebron has 2/3 “worst” by srs of opponent and doesnt really impres by these signals.

No but dws and dbpm are better for Jordan, oakley has -0.1dbpm.

You may disagree with me, but I don't find boxscore composite useful to evaluate defense at all. I don't think they have any predictive value and the methodology is all over the place and completely arbitrary.

Not to say that Oakley was a better defender - I don't have a strong opinion about it, but we have to acknowledge that Jordan "anchored" one strong defense throughout his first 5 years in the league.

Well you can disagree with box score metrics but these do lineup with that Jordan was voted dpoy by the people who watched the nba that year. So unless you guys go and track the data. Well this if it was case in court would be thrown out for lack of evidence that is if you find a lawyer to try it.

I havent seen any of these signals/numbers, that is not because of lack of trying.

We have none for 1988 unfortunately (though I don't remember if Squared shared 1988 RAPM stuides or not), but we do have samples from different seasons like 1986 or 1994. They are inconclusive for 1988 in my opinion, but it doesn't mean we should just ignore them.

Again lack of evidence.

Him and kwame were the only additions.

Ok, so you presented an argument that Jordan was underrated in his first year in Washington. That's good, it's always good to broaden the perspective.

Just another example of Jordan greatness

But 13 game sample for kyrie and love is sufficient.

I don't think it is, but in their case we also have on/off numbers and they don't look pretty.

13 games together over 3 year, playing Lebron ball will do it. That is the good thing about letting your team be coaches and play by the teams strenght not 1 guys.

Im bias and i can admit it, but im not even close to some of the posters in that thread.

Then ignore their input and focus on the rest of discussion.

Its kinda hard when first 3-4 pages are about the same post.

Just like 10 game sample.

Ok, but you picked the 10 games sample to prove your point, not to find any signal.

I kinda did but it lined up with what i have said in many threads, Jordans wizards first year was getting promising until his injury and he gets called a chucker.
Same people defend 2020 lakers failed season when Lebron missed 17 games.

Not everything is low level, many posts were very good(even who didnt vote for jordan).

I'm glad you said that, so why do you think a few posters destroyed the whole credibility of the project? Do you think James has absolutely no case under no criteria to be ranked first?

Yes, its also many good posters who f.i voted for Jordan in 2020 project are not in the voting. And i have seen how they Jordan fans get treated by these same posters/voters. Told to leave and other things which would result in a strike for me if i would say anything about.

I could but im not that invested in this.

So you work with pre-assumption, not with theory backed up with evidences.

Its more about, i cant be bothered, reason being ive done similar things in discussions before and usually the guy im “argueing” with just stops replying, then shows up days later with the same post. But i posted some data in the spoilers. And this isnt directed at you to be clear.

Well mayby, but this is what i dont get. There was no mention of players helping Lebron, but every player on the bulls is painted as a perfect fit.

You could try to discuss it, but instead you decided to ignore the discussion.

Its just a matter of perspective both of them had bad teams to begin with, both got better teammates. We cant directly compare these teammates, diffrent league, rules etc.
Both had help.

But thats the thing it wasnt a discussion imo, it was a few guys having a tantrum because someone voted for Jordan. They were activly trying to disprove a guys vote, the only discussion about f.i Lebron was just praise. Same thing happened with dutch.
Look i dont have anything against voting for Lebron/kaj/bill/wilt but the criteria seems to be very loose for Lebron, others get punished for things that Lebron doesnt.

Well yeah, when someone makes a case for one player and you strongly disagree with his argumentation, you try to prove it wrong. Exactly the same thing is happening with Hakeem or Duncan now, it doesn't mean there is no discussion.

There is no discussion when two people agree with everything, but when they don't then the exchange is necessary. I've been challenging some posters takes all the time in this project, not because it's an anti-X player tantrum, but because I want to show different point of view and learn more about the process.

Thats fair but imo this was more of a biased guys getting mad. And tbh it kinda ruined the “flow” of the thread, so much so that after 4 pages of 16 i thought yeah nah im not reading the rest, i just glansed over it read some but not all.
Mayby you guys should have a separate discussion thread or have discussion “locked” until after the voting closes? If i who has a good amount of interest in the matter gave up, i imagine others will think the same.

[MavsDirk41]

I think they were pretending to enjoy the objective discussion while pushing a subtle Jordan bias and then just got impatient.

If you dont think there is a huge James bias on the pc board i dont know what to tell you. Anytime someone post data/metrics/achievements that favor Jordan the posters on there throw out the insults or you get threatened with being banned. Its not like their disproving the information that was posted. Its a joke man.

There's literally see hundreds of pro-jordan data posted with no insults.

Show me the insults:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2307192

I wasnt on that thread. It was a different one. It was the one where you guys ranked ole chosen as #1. Ive been on that laughable pc board twice. Ill trust ESPN, CBS, and the poll on here over that one. My opinion is that the pc board is a bunch of kids who have very little time actually watching the nba and havent seen most of these players play that they are talking about. And before you mention Russell or Wilt, i cant honestly rank them cause im not old enough to have watched them play.

[MavsDirk41]

2023 RealGM's PC Board GOAT list:
1) LeBron
2) Kareem
3) Jordan

Ben Taylor's GOAT list:
1) LeBron
2) Kareem
3) Jordan

Cope harder.

ESPN and CBS had Jordan #1 as did this board - cope harder

[MavsDirk41]

I will also attest to PC board becoming way more toxic in recent years. I don't think gregoire changed. I don't think I changed, but my experience there definitely has.

PC board used to exist as a place of genuine basketball discussion with a niche of historical player comparison. Now it exists as a very strong push back to the idea that Jordan is GOAT. Virtually anywhere else, you get some number > 50% agreement that Jordan is GOAT. Over there it's less than 10% with those making pro Jordan arguments getting shouted down and enduring personal attacks.

Questioning Lebron's greatness is even more fraught with danger. I made a thread a few years back during the height of the "Lebron's GOAT-tier defense" PC board era basically comparing activity measures on defense (e.g. DFA, contests, deflections) vs. both Lebron's teammates as well as comparable forwards showing just how far behind Lebron was in that respect. It actually took a bit of work because I had to convert to rate stats in a spreadsheet as nba.com only gave per game and totals at the time. The response to that was pure derision. One guy took it so far I had to basically tell him to back the F off.

There are still good posters over there but unfortunately a lot of groupthink and A LOT of arrogance. One nice thing about the GB is that there's enough diversity of opinion to hold people in check. Even GB hot takes are usually layered with humour. I really do believe you're more likely to find opinions that closer to the truth on GB even if there are also more **** posts mixed in. Just my 2c.

That's because most people just parrot takes of others and don't think for themselves. They can't even explain why Jordan may be the GOAT without bringing up team accomplishments.

Taking a population poll on topics doesn't get you the right answer. It gets you the average answer and that average NBA fan is influenced heavily by the media of what they are watching.

If you care about an answer on ranks then go to experts, people who can explain which data the value and why, people that can tell you which aspects of the game are critical to winning and why. People who use this reasoning to rank 50-100 different players.

If I asked the average NBA fan on the top of their head to rank their top 100 NBA players then you'd get to top 15 before they start struggling. Players they name after top 15 are probably going to have played in the last 10-20 years. If I asked them on a forum then they are probably googling top 100 lists so that they don't feel foolish.

Team accomplishments lol?

PER, BPM, RAPTOR, league mvps, finals mvps, all defensive awards, scoring titles, etc all favor Jordan over James. People post plenty of data on here daily but you guys want James to be the goat so bad that you ignore it. What data are we allowed to use then? What accomplishments are we allowed to use?

[twyzted]

2023 RealGM's PC Board GOAT list:
1) LeBron
2) Kareem
3) Jordan

Ben Taylor's GOAT list:
1) LeBron
2) Kareem
3) Jordan

Cope harder.

Ohh wow a total of 16 people has Lebron as GOAT.
That is a strong evidence.
And you guys come here and call us dumb.

[zimpy27]

If you dont think there is a huge James bias on the pc board i dont know what to tell you. Anytime someone post data/metrics/achievements that favor Jordan the posters on there throw out the insults or you get threatened with being banned. Its not like their disproving the information that was posted. Its a joke man.

There's literally see hundreds of pro-jordan data posted with no insults.

Show me the insults:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2307192

I wasnt on that thread. It was a different one. It was the one where you guys ranked ole chosen as #1. Ive been on that laughable pc board twice. Ill trust ESPN, CBS, and the poll on here over that one. My opinion is that the pc board is a bunch of kids who have very little time actually watching the nba and havent seen most of these players play that they are talking about. And before you mention Russell or Wilt, i cant honestly rank them cause im not old enough to have watched them play.

Can you not see why it's not going to be taken seriously if you admit to being on a board twice and saying things like Jordan stats are always ignored or it's a bunch of kids who don't watch NBA?

You're making sweeping claims with very little experience and you wonder why everyone doesn't listen to your Jordan over LeBron takes.

[zimpy27]

I will also attest to PC board becoming way more toxic in recent years. I don't think gregoire changed. I don't think I changed, but my experience there definitely has.

PC board used to exist as a place of genuine basketball discussion with a niche of historical player comparison. Now it exists as a very strong push back to the idea that Jordan is GOAT. Virtually anywhere else, you get some number > 50% agreement that Jordan is GOAT. Over there it's less than 10% with those making pro Jordan arguments getting shouted down and enduring personal attacks.

Questioning Lebron's greatness is even more fraught with danger. I made a thread a few years back during the height of the "Lebron's GOAT-tier defense" PC board era basically comparing activity measures on defense (e.g. DFA, contests, deflections) vs. both Lebron's teammates as well as comparable forwards showing just how far behind Lebron was in that respect. It actually took a bit of work because I had to convert to rate stats in a spreadsheet as nba.com only gave per game and totals at the time. The response to that was pure derision. One guy took it so far I had to basically tell him to back the F off.

There are still good posters over there but unfortunately a lot of groupthink and A LOT of arrogance. One nice thing about the GB is that there's enough diversity of opinion to hold people in check. Even GB hot takes are usually layered with humour. I really do believe you're more likely to find opinions that closer to the truth on GB even if there are also more **** posts mixed in. Just my 2c.

That's because most people just parrot takes of others and don't think for themselves. They can't even explain why Jordan may be the GOAT without bringing up team accomplishments.

Taking a population poll on topics doesn't get you the right answer. It gets you the average answer and that average NBA fan is influenced heavily by the media of what they are watching.

If you care about an answer on ranks then go to experts, people who can explain which data the value and why, people that can tell you which aspects of the game are critical to winning and why. People who use this reasoning to rank 50-100 different players.

If I asked the average NBA fan on the top of their head to rank their top 100 NBA players then you'd get to top 15 before they start struggling. Players they name after top 15 are probably going to have played in the last 10-20 years. If I asked them on a forum then they are probably googling top 100 lists so that they don't feel foolish.

Team accomplishments lol?

PER, BPM, RAPTOR, league mvps, finals mvps, all defensive awards, scoring titles, etc all favor Jordan over James. People post plenty of data on here daily but you guys want James to be the goat so bad that you ignore it. What data are we allowed to use then? What accomplishments are we allowed to use?

Those stats are considered though, where have they not been considered?

Jordan was ranked the highest peak season of all time by the PC board using those stats.

[rk2023]

PC board once was great place, where Ben Taylor was there, but today it became very toxic place…

You know Ben Taylor has the same top 3 you’ve spent the last two days, as a grown man?, crying and screaming over?

[MavsDirk41]

That's because most people just parrot takes of others and don't think for themselves. They can't even explain why Jordan may be the GOAT without bringing up team accomplishments.

Taking a population poll on topics doesn't get you the right answer. It gets you the average answer and that average NBA fan is influenced heavily by the media of what they are watching.

If you care about an answer on ranks then go to experts, people who can explain which data the value and why, people that can tell you which aspects of the game are critical to winning and why. People who use this reasoning to rank 50-100 different players.

If I asked the average NBA fan on the top of their head to rank their top 100 NBA players then you'd get to top 15 before they start struggling. Players they name after top 15 are probably going to have played in the last 10-20 years. If I asked them on a forum then they are probably googling top 100 lists so that they don't feel foolish.

Team accomplishments lol?

PER, BPM, RAPTOR, league mvps, finals mvps, all defensive awards, scoring titles, etc all favor Jordan over James. People post plenty of data on here daily but you guys want James to be the goat so bad that you ignore it. What data are we allowed to use then? What accomplishments are we allowed to use?

Those stats are considered though, where have they not been considered?

Jordan was ranked the highest peak season of all time by the PC board using those stats.

So all of the people who have mentioned that the pc board leans very heavily towards James are just making it up? There are no better arguments for James on that board than there are for Jordan on this board. Some of the posters on there spend more time trying to prove that Jordans supporting cast was exceptionally great rather than trying to prove why James is the better player. I find this board more interesting anyways. There are way more entertaining discussions on this board.

[Jaivl]

You guys are trying to make gregoire feel like he's the problem here - he's not. Gregoire was a super nice poster that got bullied and pushed around by the toxic PC board culture and is now finally pushing back. It's a testament to how nice that guy is that it took this long. You guys are gaslighting him.

Well that's funny AND ironic.

[Gregoire]

PC board used to exist as a place of genuine basketball discussion with a niche of historical player comparison. Now it exists as a very strong push back to the idea that Jordan is GOAT. Virtually anywhere else, you get some number > 50% agreement that Jordan is GOAT. Over there it's less than 10% with those making pro Jordan arguments getting shouted down and enduring personal attacks.

Even the latest project result disagrees with, because more than 10% voters voted for Jordan.

I also don't see these personal attacks. None of these "LeBron fanboys" called me a biased Kareem fanboy like Jordan fans did it here.

I think a part of fanbase is way too sensitive to be honest. If I was as sensitive regarding all 1960s or 1970s players, I wouldn't last a day on this board. Imagine Bill Russell fans who have to hear much more ridiculous arguments all the time (and some of you have no problem with them).

You have multiple people itt including me suggesting it's toxic over there and have been subject to numerous personal attacks, and not of the "fanboy" variety. You seriously trying to deny other people's lived experiences?? I'm happy for you that no one on the PC board regularly goes after you like they do with other posters. I'm not surprised you're sticking up for your friends.

It isn't about being sensitive or whatever. When posters crusade against other posters, routinely resort to name calling, tell others they're not welcome to post there, go around trying to get other posters to stop interacting with them, etc., then it makes the place by definition not welcoming and actually toxic when the unwelcome posters come back to participate in other topics only to get run off again. This has happened with a bunch of decent posters over there, myself included.

You guys are trying to make gregoire feel like he's the problem here - he's not. Gregoire was a super nice poster that got bullied and pushed around by the toxic PC board culture and is now finally pushing back. It's a testament to how nice that guy is that it took this long. You guys are gaslighting him.

Man, thanks, you are exactly right here, on the other hand, I am satisfied with the frustration of these fanboys who even ran here to GB to protect their sacred cow, but here, where they have no lobby, they received a good rebuff

[twyzted]

Did a experiment posted in a thread on the lbj board a pro Jordan argument.
Got a thorough rebuttal. A whole 2 lines of bitterness

[Gregoire]

Did a experiment posted in a thread on the lbj board a pro Jordan argument.
Got a thorough rebuttal. A whole 2 lines of bitterness

Im not surprised!
On the other hand, there are regularly appearance of topics like this by these fanboys:
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2308332
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2308461

[70sFan]

Did a experiment posted in a thread on the lbj board a pro Jordan argument.
Got a thorough rebuttal. A whole 2 lines of bitterness

I have no idea what is this supposed to prove...

[OhayoKD]

Did a experiment posted in a thread on the lbj board a pro Jordan argument.
Got a thorough rebuttal. A whole 2 lines of bitterness

Listing ws/48, bpm, and per is bitterness? What does that make you?

[twyzted]

Did a experiment posted in a thread on the lbj board a pro Jordan argument.
Got a thorough rebuttal. A whole 2 lines of bitterness

Listing ws/48, bpm, and per is bitterness? What does that make you?

No he thought those “useless” stats were my favorite.
It doesnt really make me anything tbh…
Should it?

[OhayoKD]

Did a experiment posted in a thread on the lbj board a pro Jordan argument.
Got a thorough rebuttal. A whole 2 lines of bitterness

Listing ws/48, bpm, and per is bitterness? What does that make you?

No he thought those “useless” stats were my favorite.
It doesnt really make me anything tbh…
Should it?

You do post them a fair bit. Would be nice if you could remember to adjust for opponent(2012 spurs, cough)