Miami Heat Off-season Thread 9.0 - Dame’s BBW Edition

[MorbidHEAT]

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Well, we know now that Riley is lowballing hard. This is never getting done.

[MorbidHEAT]

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My boy Eddie Jones probably lost most of his money at the Hard Rock. Give him a call. I used to play poker there a lot and would always see Eddie there. One of my all time favorite Heat players.

[SoFlaKingReal]

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Well, we know now that Riley is lowballing hard. This is never getting done.

That isn’t a lowball offer. That’s a fair offer that happens to be the best offer Portland has on the table.

[Heat3]

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Well, we know now that Riley is lowballing hard. This is never getting done.

That isn’t a lowball offer. That’s a fair offer that happens to be the best offer Portland has on the table.

I agree. Lillard isn’t 25. Heat are renting a player for a good two years and who knows what else after that.

[Noodle Arm]

Y’all keep taking Ls.

Departures
Carter
Oladipo
Strus
Vincent

Additions
Bryant
Jaquez
Richardson
Zeller’s Departure

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You better watch yourself, the Cronin diss track is about to drop!

[Daffy]

Really not happy losing on our player development coach. We have been successful, I know we have a standardized way of doing things so anybody who he replaces can come in and take over without missing a beat. However Its not cool, losing continuity. You would think how Miami's key coaching cogs in regards to our development may start getting poached based on how we have performed with undrafted players in our current run.

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Don't worry. It's all part of the plan. Send him there to fill their young guys minds about Miami Heat and the way we operate. Before we know it they'll be begging to come to us. Our inside mole.

[oreon]

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Not really. Tyler doesn't really have any other options. He knows as much as everyone his value around the league is low. It's not like if he demands a trade there's gonna be a lineup. If Dame doesn't work out, Tyler and Heat would be stuck together for atleast one season. His agent would advise him keep your head down and prove everyone else wrong for atleast one season. Then if he has a good season he can start asking out. So I don't a foresee a situation where Herro is being a malcontent in the locker-room. That only works if you have options

[eddieheatfan]

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My boy Eddie Jones probably lost most of his money at the Hard Rock. Give him a call. I used to play poker there a lot and would always see Eddie there. One of my all time favorite Heat players.

didnt know he was/is a gambler he doesnt strike me as such. everyone has their habits i guess. but gambling can and do destroy families. when people loses control then it can be a disaster

[Pokuokic]

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Not really. Tyler doesn't really have any other options. He knows as much as everyone his value around the league is low. It's not like if he demands a trade there's gonna be a lineup. If Dame doesn't work out, Tyler and Heat would be stuck together for atleast one season. His agent would advise him keep your head down and prove everyone else wrong for atleast one season. Then if he has a good season he can start asking out. So I don't a foresee a situation where Herro is being a malcontent in the locker-room. That only works if you have options

"Lost 2 starters", that's pure comedy I swear no one watch Strus/Vincent play all year lost two fringe players who were given every chance to chuck till eventually they got hot for a couple games.

[NightWatch]

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My boy Eddie Jones probably lost most of his money at the Hard Rock. Give him a call. I used to play poker there a lot and would always see Eddie there. One of my all time favorite Heat players.

Seriously? I haven’t heard of that name in a long time.

[IceColdCubano]

So just doing some homework here on Cap Values:

YEAR CAP MAXIMUN CAP $ +/- CAP % +/-
2023 $136,021,000 $12,366,000 10.00%
2022 $123,655,000 $11,241,000 10.00%
2021 $112,414,000 $3,274,000 3.00%
2020 $109,140,000 $0 0.00%
2019 $109,140,000 $7,271,000 7.14%
2018 $101,869,000 $2,776,000 2.80%
2017 $99,093,000 $4,950,000 5.26%
2016 $94,143,000 $24,143,000 34.49%
2015 $70,000,000 $6,935,000 11.00%
2014 $63,065,000 $4,386,000 7.47%
2013 $58,679,000 $635,000 1.09%
2012 $58,044,000 $0 0.00%
2011 $58,044,000 $4,000 0.01%
2010 $58,040,000 $340,000 0.59%
2009 $57,700,000 $-980,000 -1.67%
2008 $58,680,000 $3,050,000 5.48%
2007 $55,630,000 $2,495,000 4.70%
2006 $53,135,000 $3,635,000 7.34%
2005 $49,500,000 $5,630,000 12.83%
2004 $43,870,000 $30,000 0.07%
2003 $43,840,000 $3,569,000 8.86%

I wanted to use 20 Years worth of data to kind of see the trend:
From 2003-2023 The cap has increased by a total of: $92,181,000 or 310% in 20 Years
That's an average increase of $4,609,050 Per year.

That means Cap Space in 2026 could end up being at a minimum without accounting for the new TV deal $149,848,150
If you follow the last two year trends of increase 10% projected the other variable says we could see it at $181,043,951
Id gather the truth to settle closer to the middle at $165,446,051 my projected Cap.

Damian Lillards current Salary of $45,640,084 accounts for 34% of the Cap in 2023-2024 season.
Damian Lillards end of contract salary of $63,228,828 projected account for 38% of the Cap in 2026-2027 season.
For Dame Lillards last year salary to equal to or be less than this upcoming seasons Cap hit of 34% means that the Cap during the 2026-2027 season must at a minimum be at $186,000,000 which exceeds any of my projections at the moment by any metric outside of it increasing more due to the new tv deal.

My expectation here is that our Cap hit from Lillard will be larger at the end of his contract unless we got considerable raises on the Cap.

[Lilseb93]

3 first round picks and Tyler Herro (who would get picked higher in the draft in retrospect) is a lowball for a 33 year old Dame on a max deal? Oof.

[IceColdCubano]

3 first round picks and Tyler Herro (who would get picked higher in the draft in retrospect) is a lowball for a 33 year old Dame on a max deal? Oof.

Lillard's last 2 years of his contract at age 35 & 36 alone should reduce his FRP return by half.

[IceColdCubano]

So just doing some homework here on Cap Values:

YEAR CAP MAXIMUN CAP $ +/- CAP % +/-
2023 $136,021,000 $12,366,000 10.00%
2022 $123,655,000 $11,241,000 10.00%
2021 $112,414,000 $3,274,000 3.00%
2020 $109,140,000 $0 0.00%
2019 $109,140,000 $7,271,000 7.14%
2018 $101,869,000 $2,776,000 2.80%
2017 $99,093,000 $4,950,000 5.26%
2016 $94,143,000 $24,143,000 34.49%
2015 $70,000,000 $6,935,000 11.00%
2014 $63,065,000 $4,386,000 7.47%
2013 $58,679,000 $635,000 1.09%
2012 $58,044,000 $0 0.00%
2011 $58,044,000 $4,000 0.01%
2010 $58,040,000 $340,000 0.59%
2009 $57,700,000 $-980,000 -1.67%
2008 $58,680,000 $3,050,000 5.48%
2007 $55,630,000 $2,495,000 4.70%
2006 $53,135,000 $3,635,000 7.34%
2005 $49,500,000 $5,630,000 12.83%
2004 $43,870,000 $30,000 0.07%
2003 $43,840,000 $3,569,000 8.86%

I wanted to use 20 Years worth of data to kind of see the trend:
From 2003-2023 The cap has increased by a total of: $92,181,000 or 310% in 20 Years
That's an average increase of $4,609,050 Per year.

That means Cap Space in 2026 could end up being at a minimum without accounting for the new TV deal $149,848,150
If you follow the last two year trends of increase 10% projected the other variable says we could see it at $181,043,951
Id gather the truth to settle closer to the middle at $165,446,051 my projected Cap.

Damian Lillards current Salary of $45,640,084 accounts for 34% of the Cap in 2023-2024 season.
Damian Lillards end of contract salary of $63,228,828 projected account for 38% of the Cap in 2026-2027 season.
For Dame Lillards last year salary to equal to or be less than this upcoming seasons Cap hit of 34% means that the Cap during the 2026-2027 season must at a minimum be at $186,000,000 which exceeds any of my projections at the moment by any metric outside of it increasing more due to the new tv deal.

My expectation here is that our Cap hit from Lillard will be larger at the end of his contract unless we got considerable raises on the Cap.

I also want to say that its pretty damn disgusting looking at the above that our big three era had zero movement in Cap revenue in a way to punish Miami from improving their team. I see what you did NBA....
YEAR CAP MAXIMUN CAP $ +/- CAP % +/-
2013 $58,679,000 $635,000 1.09%
2012 $58,044,000 $0 0.00%
2011 $58,044,000 $4,000 0.01%
2010 $58,040,000 $340,000 0.59%
Lebron gets to Miami in 2010, and leaves on 2014, very convenient to then raise the Cap that year that he leaves 7.5% the largest raise since 2005.

[MorbidHEAT]

You guys keep throwing around 33. I’m just wondering, are you talking about his age or ppg last season? Rudy Gobert got 5 picks. Like it or not our offer is not enough.

[IceColdCubano]

You guys keep throwing around 33. I’m just wondering, are you talking about his age or ppg last season? Rudy Gobert got 5 picks. Like it or not our offer is not enough.

Gobert was considered a massive overpay not to be repeated league wide.
Durant offer is a better representation and even then Durant considered by most to be worth more than Lillard as a 6'-10" wing that actually can at least play defense. Small guards do not gain that type of value as they age, because their drop off is significant in their latent years. If you feel that were undervaluing him, then there would be 3-4 offers from others right now completely annihilating Miami's offer. At a minimum a contender doesn't need to get him, but just to screw us and force every last nickel out of our pockets they would present an offer that trumps ours, nobody has. Chances are nobody will, were bidding against ourselves.

[IceColdCubano]

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[MHeat0279]

I get where she’s coming from, but…

Eh. We’re committed to the fckery now. We gotta make it work.

This is an important point, the guy already got his neck out by demanding Miami and Miami only, we can not fail now.

[IceColdCubano]

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[MiamiLoyal926]

You guys keep throwing around 33. I’m just wondering, are you talking about his age or ppg last season? Rudy Gobert got 5 picks. Like it or not our offer is not enough.

The problem with this argument is that the whole world knew that was the dumbest trade in history for the wolves!! It has not been repeated since… not even for KD.

Edit: just read your response ICC… we on the same page!