Would you rather have Simons or Hero at shooting guard?

[DC_Melo]

As most have said, the correct answer is Sharpe at SG.

Having said that, Herro is a better player than Simons. I'd rather have Herro and his 4/120 over Ant.

Agreed on Sharpe. Just curious tho, why Herro? They have similar play styles, size, weaknesses, and stat lines… What makes him $43 million more valuable than Simons?

$43M is the wrong way to look at it since the contract lengths are different.

Ant averages $25.9M/year. Herro gets $30.0M/year. So the question is "Is Herro worth $4M/yr (or 15%) more than Ant"?

Offensively they are about equal, but I think Herro is the better distributor.
Both are poor defensively, but Herro is at least passible. In looking at NET numbers for the last 2 years, Ant has:

OBPM: 1.9 1.3
DBPM: -2.7 -2.5
BPM: -0.7 -1.1
VORP: 0.5 0.5
ORTG-DRTG: -9 -10
So clearly Simons has been a net negative while on the court. What ever points he gets you on offense, he gives back (plus some) on defense.

Looking at Herro, he has:
OBPM: 1.6 1.5
DBPM: -0.9 -0.8
BPM: +0.7 +0.6
VORP: 1.5 1.6
ORTG-DRTG: -4 -6
Some metrics can show Herro being a net negative while others show a net positive. I consider him at least neutral.

I dont think Herro is 43M more valuable than Simons - but I do think he is the better player and trust his competitiveness over Simons.

I just dont see any 'dog' in Ant. I wouldnt trust him to overcome any sort of playoff adversity / intensity. That may not be fair, but its my take.

Completely agree with this. He's worth the extra $4M/year (15%) more than Ant.

Respectfully, I disagree. If I were to offer u two cars, and car A had 7,700/3 years left on its loan, while car B had 12,000/4 years left, u would likely take car A unless car B was clearly superior. Even if I pitched u that car B was 300/month which wasn’t so bad compared to car A’s $259/month, u would still want clear evidence car B was significantly better. That extra year matters and is a cost that needs to get paid at the end of the day.

It becomes even more problematic if that car depreciates too much in value and wins less races cuz it shares a garage with too many similar cars. Just like Herro’s stats would do if he shared a backcourt with our current trio. At that point, he truly risks become a negative value asset.

And the stats just don’t show that between Simons and Herro one is clearly better. Their individual stats are strikingly similar, with Herro edging Simons in PER and Simons beating Herro in TS%, and several other give and takes across the board.

The advanced stats u present… OBPM, DBPM, VORP, and O/DRTG are significantly impacted by team success. I don’t have an issue saying Herro is slightly better, but I don’t believe any of those advanced metrics would be significantly different if they played on teams with same or similar records.

[DC_Melo]

Herro is the better player; may even have more PG skills than Simons. And has better size. Much better rebounder and the Blazers need rebounding

but the reality is, if the Blazers had good management, neither would be on the roster at the beginning of the season

I mostly agree with this, but I don’t get why everyone thinks he has such a size advantage? Herro is 6’5 with a 6’3 wingspan while Simons is 6’3 with a 6’9 wingspan. If you’re worried about teams shooting/seeing over Simons and his 2 inch vertical height disadvantage, let me assure u his fro’s got it covered lol

[zzaj]

Not really a fan of either player, but based on Sharpe's SL play...the Blazers need a starting SG. So whomever you choose could likely be "it".

[Wizenheimer]

Herro is the better player; may even have more PG skills than Simons. And has better size. Much better rebounder and the Blazers need rebounding

but the reality is, if the Blazers had good management, neither would be on the roster at the beginning of the season

I mostly agree with this, but I don’t get why everyone thinks he has such a size advantage? Herro is 6’5 with a 6’3 wingspan while Simons is 6’3 with a 6’9 wingspan. If you’re worried about teams shooting/seeing over Simons and his 2 inch vertical height disadvantage, let me assure u his fro’s got it covered lol

Herro does have some TRex arms but I think wingspan is one of the most overrated stats around. Ant is one of the worst defenders in the league, even with that 6'9 wingspan. That's because nobody plays defense with their arms extended horizontally as far as they can go. Ant has a 5 inch wingspan advantage on Chris Paul; a 2 inch advantage over JRue Holiday and Derrick White, and is the same as Marcus Smart. But those guys play defense with their legs, footwork, lateral reaction, and anticipation. Ant has none of those things going for him

[DC_Melo]

Herro is the better player; may even have more PG skills than Simons. And has better size. Much better rebounder and the Blazers need rebounding

but the reality is, if the Blazers had good management, neither would be on the roster at the beginning of the season

I mostly agree with this, but I don’t get why everyone thinks he has such a size advantage? Herro is 6’5 with a 6’3 wingspan while Simons is 6’3 with a 6’9 wingspan. If you’re worried about teams shooting/seeing over Simons and his 2 inch vertical height disadvantage, let me assure u his fro’s got it covered lol

Herro does have some TRex arms but I think wingspan is one of the most overrated stats around. Ant is one of the worst defenders in the league, even with that 6'9 wingspan. That's because nobody plays defense with their arms extended horizontally as far as they can go. Ant has a 5 inch wingspan advantage on Chris Paul; a 2 inch advantage over JRue Holiday and Derrick White, and is the same as Marcus Smart. But those guys play defense with their legs, footwork, lateral reaction, and anticipation. Ant has none of those things going for him

Way too true sadly. It’s fair to say Simons doesn’t use his size, especially on the defensive end. Not sure Herro does either; but I’ll concede Herro is the slightly less worse defender… maybe that’s due to those 2 inches lol.

I don’t believe wingspan is overrated, as much as it is something that some players use to their advantage while others don’t.

[Norm2953]

The question should be which SG is the best SG fit next to Scoot Henderson.

We're 4000 miles away from Miami and only see them play once in Portland and I just don't
know just how much of a competitor Herro is. Scoot does seem to have an alpha
personality and it would seem to me Scoot's BC partner needs to be on the same page
as his PG. Is that Herro, I don't know for neither Simons or Herro has played with a PG
who can get to the rim whenever he wants

[mighty_duck]

Respectfully, I disagree. If I were to offer u two cars, and car A had 7,700/3 years left on its loan, while car B had 12,000/4 years left, u would likely take car A .

I'm sorry but that is a horrible analogy.
It breaks down because with the car loans, once they are paid off, you own the cars, and can use them without paying anything (except for maintenance, licensing etc).
With players, you need to keep paying salaries to keep them.

A lease would be a better analogy, but is also poor because cars tend to depreciate, while productive 23 year old basketball players tend to improve over the next 3-4 years. And you can just sign a new lease on a car, while players are more difficult to replace because of salary cap, trade restrictions, availability, etc.

In short, we should stick to looking at the players rather than analogies.

[Napoleon7]

Prefer Simons as the 3rd guard


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[DC_Melo]

Respectfully, I disagree. If I were to offer u two cars, and car A had 7,700/3 years left on its loan, while car B had 12,000/4 years left, u would likely take car A .

I'm sorry but that is a horrible analogy.
It breaks down because with the car loans, once they are paid off, you own the cars, and can use them without paying anything (except for maintenance, licensing etc).
With players, you need to keep paying salaries to keep them.

A lease would be a better analogy, but is also poor because cars tend to depreciate, while productive 23 year old basketball players tend to improve over the next 3-4 years. And you can just sign a new lease on a car, while players are more difficult to replace because of salary cap, trade restrictions, availability, etc.

In short, we should stick to looking at the players rather than analogies.

U can pick apart my figurative language all you want, it’s definitely not a perfect analogy, but that doesn’t change a few things:

-Herro is owed $43 million more than Simons and that’s a lot of extra money for an owner to pay, regardless if they have an extra year to pay it off or not.

-I picked a used car anaology specifically due to depreciation. What do u think will happen to Herro when he has to share more touches and minutes in an overcrowded backcourt? His value will continue to go down.

His numbers already regressed last season and he gets more expensive each year. He has already depreciated quite a bit in value from last summer when he was a near-untouchable commodity to this summer where he can’t even fetch a couple of 1sts. This is mainly due to his extension kicking in, but that’s the point… He will only grow older and more expensive through the life of that contract. He’s only 23 but about to enter his 5th year in the league…Herro is who he is… an undersized score first combo guard whose base and advance stats suggest he’s near his peak.

If u think his value will somehow appreciate if he joins the Blazers, I would love to hear how that would be possible.

[RTG HD]

Nice of someone to put a link to this poll on page 16 of the Heat forums "Miami Heat Off-season Thread 9.0 - Dame’s BBW Edition" thread.

[mighty_duck]

-Herro is owed $43 million more than Simons and that’s a lot of extra money for an owner to pay, regardless if they have an extra year to pay it off or not.

It's not that they have another year to "pay it off" - they have another year of service from a player!
If you want to keep Simons beyond his current contract, he'll get paid for that 4th year, and in all probability he'll be paid more than he's currently making.

Now, if you consider either Ant or Herro as negative value contracts (and one can certainly argue that), then what you are saying makes sense. We want to get out of bad contracts as soon as possible.

I see them both as positive, but the fit for either is questionable here, unless they are willing to be microwave 6th men.

[DC_Melo]

-Herro is owed $43 million more than Simons and that’s a lot of extra money for an owner to pay, regardless if they have an extra year to pay it off or not.

It's not that they have another year to "pay it off" - they have another year of service from a player!
If you want to keep Simons beyond his current contract, he'll get paid for that 4th year, and in all probability he'll be paid more than he's currently making.

Now, if you consider either Ant or Herro as negative value contracts (and one can certainly argue that), then what you are saying makes sense. We want to get out of bad contracts as soon as possible.

I see them both as positive, but the fit for either is questionable here, unless they are willing to be microwave 6th men.

For sure, they’re not paying that $33 mil on the last year of his contract for nothing… he better provide his services! Lol

But that’s a lot to commit to a guy that I agree, may or may not be worth his contract. And it’s 1 year and 43 million less than we are committed to Ant. When Ant’s contract expires, yes we would need to pay again to keep him, but we at least have more control over terms, conditions, and have the freedom to go another direction if we choose. And as long as Herro stays off our team, Simons should more or less retain his marginally positive value.

For the record, I think Herro also has some positive value, but whatever positive value he has left will evaporate the second he joins the Blazers. Thrown into the rotation we currently have, he’ll go from averaging 20/night to the somewhere in the lower teens if we’re lucky. And in 3 years, would a one way combo guard coming off the bench for 13/night be worth that final year of his contract? Likely not.

[tester551]

-Herro is owed $43 million more than Simons and that’s a lot of extra money for an owner to pay, regardless if they have an extra year to pay it off or not.

It's not that they have another year to "pay it off" - they have another year of service from a player!
If you want to keep Simons beyond his current contract, he'll get paid for that 4th year, and in all probability he'll be paid more than he's currently making.

Now, if you consider either Ant or Herro as negative value contracts (and one can certainly argue that), then what you are saying makes sense. We want to get out of bad contracts as soon as possible.

I see them both as positive, but the fit for either is questionable here, unless they are willing to be microwave 6th men.

For sure, they’re not paying that $33 mil on the last year of his contract for nothing… he better provide his services! Lol

But that’s a lot to commit to a guy that I agree, may or may not be worth his contract. And it’s 1 year and 43 million less than we are committed to Ant. When Ant’s contract expires, yes we would need to pay again to keep him, but we at least have more control over terms, conditions, and have the freedom to go another direction if we choose. And as long as Herro stays off our team, Simons should more or less retain his marginally positive value.

For the record, I think Herro also has some positive value, but whatever positive value he has left will evaporate the second he joins the Blazers. Thrown into the rotation we currently have, he’ll go from averaging 20/night to the somewhere in the lower teens if we’re lucky. And in 3 years, would a one way combo guard coming off the bench for 13/night be worth that final year of his contract? Likely not.

I don't think anyone is advocating to have BOTH Ant & Herro on the Blazers.

The lens I've been looking at this through is having EITHER Ant OR Herro. If a Miami deal goes through, I'd rather that Ant is included in that deal and sent to Brooklyn, Houston, Orlando, or some other location - and Portland take back Herro in his place.

[mighty_duck]

For sure, they’re not paying that $33 mil on the last year of his contract for nothing… he better provide his services! Lol

But that’s a lot to commit to a guy that I agree, may or may not be worth his contract. And it’s 1 year and 43 million less than we are committed to Ant. When Ant’s contract expires, yes we would need to pay again to keep him, but we at least have more control over terms, conditions, and have the freedom to go another direction if we choose. And as long as Herro stays off our team, Simons should more or less retain his marginally positive value.

For the record, I think Herro also has some positive value, but whatever positive value he has left will evaporate the second he joins the Blazers. Thrown into the rotation we currently have, he’ll go from averaging 20/night to the somewhere in the lower teens if we’re lucky. And in 3 years, would a one way combo guard coming off the bench for 13/night be worth that final year of his contract? Likely not.

Assuming Ant is gone, Herro will be in a position to be MORE productive (at least short term). Instead of sharing the spotlight with two veteran Allstars in a highly competitive setting, he'll be a veteran on a team full of rookies/first year players. A lot of shots to go around, and it isn't the end of the world if you have an off night and the team loses. You keep chucking!

[DC_Melo]

It's not that they have another year to "pay it off" - they have another year of service from a player!
If you want to keep Simons beyond his current contract, he'll get paid for that 4th year, and in all probability he'll be paid more than he's currently making.

Now, if you consider either Ant or Herro as negative value contracts (and one can certainly argue that), then what you are saying makes sense. We want to get out of bad contracts as soon as possible.

I see them both as positive, but the fit for either is questionable here, unless they are willing to be microwave 6th men.

For sure, they’re not paying that $33 mil on the last year of his contract for nothing… he better provide his services! Lol

But that’s a lot to commit to a guy that I agree, may or may not be worth his contract. And it’s 1 year and 43 million less than we are committed to Ant. When Ant’s contract expires, yes we would need to pay again to keep him, but we at least have more control over terms, conditions, and have the freedom to go another direction if we choose. And as long as Herro stays off our team, Simons should more or less retain his marginally positive value.

For the record, I think Herro also has some positive value, but whatever positive value he has left will evaporate the second he joins the Blazers. Thrown into the rotation we currently have, he’ll go from averaging 20/night to the somewhere in the lower teens if we’re lucky. And in 3 years, would a one way combo guard coming off the bench for 13/night be worth that final year of his contract? Likely not.

I don't think anyone is advocating to have BOTH Ant & Herro on the Blazers.

The lens I've been looking at this through is having EITHER Ant OR Herro. If a Miami deal goes through, I'd rather that Ant is included in that deal and sent to Brooklyn, Houston, Orlando, or some other location - and Portland take back Herro in his place.

That’s fair. I was looking at it from where our roster would be if we took Herro from a post-trade standpoint.

And yes, I’m certain the solution here is to move one of the two… but that’s the thing, both the Blazers and the Heat have reportedly been trying to trade Simons and Herro and the market has yet to bite.

Why take on the risk of having both Simons and Herro on the books with no decent trade offers in sight? Make Miami trade or find value for Herro and they can send that to us instead.

[DC_Melo]

For sure, they’re not paying that $33 mil on the last year of his contract for nothing… he better provide his services! Lol

But that’s a lot to commit to a guy that I agree, may or may not be worth his contract. And it’s 1 year and 43 million less than we are committed to Ant. When Ant’s contract expires, yes we would need to pay again to keep him, but we at least have more control over terms, conditions, and have the freedom to go another direction if we choose. And as long as Herro stays off our team, Simons should more or less retain his marginally positive value.

For the record, I think Herro also has some positive value, but whatever positive value he has left will evaporate the second he joins the Blazers. Thrown into the rotation we currently have, he’ll go from averaging 20/night to the somewhere in the lower teens if we’re lucky. And in 3 years, would a one way combo guard coming off the bench for 13/night be worth that final year of his contract? Likely not.

Assuming Ant is gone, Herro will be in a position to be MORE productive (at least short term). Instead of sharing the spotlight with two veteran Allstars in a highly competitive setting, he'll be a veteran on a team full of rookies/first year players. A lot of shots to go around, and it isn't the end of the world if you have an off night and the team loses. You keep chucking!

I got no issues with that, and it’s fun watching the youngsters chuck! Lol. I just don’t see why we would want to take on the risk of having both guys on our roster and being saddled with the responsibility to trade one for value. Let Miami do that.

But if we somehow did trade Simons and landed Herro, I agree that would still be fun to watch!

[mighty_duck]

I just don’t see why we would want to take on the risk of having both guys on our roster and being saddled with the responsibility to trade one for value. Let Miami do that.

You'll get no argument about that from anyone here, and I believe it's also what we're hearing from Portland's front office.
We're letting Miami do the legwork of getting value for Herro as part of the Dame trade.
If we wanted to keep Herro and trade Ant, we'd be the ones who need to kick some tires, but probably would also do it as part of a larger Dame trade. I've heard nothing official about this even being considered though.

[Effigy]

Prefer Simons as the 3rd guard


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The thing is, that's never going to happen. They aren't gong to put him on the bench behind Scoot and Sharpe. If Simons stays they will start him (and I assume try to start Sharpe at SF or maybe bring Sharpe off the bench which isn't ideal for his development). I agree his best role is as 6th man, but I just don't see him accepting that role here or us having the balls to force him. If we don't trade Simons we are looking at CJ 2.0.

[DC_Melo]

Prefer Simons as the 3rd guard


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The thing is, that's never going to happen. They aren't gong to put him on the bench behind Scoot and Sharpe. If Simons stays they will start him (and I assume try to start Sharpe at SF or maybe bring Sharpe off the bench which isn't ideal for his development). I agree his best role is as 6th man, but I just don't see him accepting that role here or us having the balls to force him. If we don't trade Simons we are looking at CJ 2.0.

It’s a very valid concern, and I think at least to start the year, we may very well see that lineup. But every indication is that the Blazers see Sharpe as a SG and they valued him as our most untouchable asset when shopping Simons and the 3rd pick. It was never Sharpe and the 3rd. I think the Blazers have made pretty clear who they see as their long term guy at SG.

They also just invested in Thybulle, drafted Murray and Rupert, and would very likely insist on Jaquez returning in a Dame trade. There will be no shortage of players fighting for minutes at the SF position, in addition to whatever odd minutes Grant might play there too. Sliding Sharpe at the 3 for significant stretches would just add to that log jam. The way the Blazers have constructed their roster, it really does look like Ant is meant to be the 3rd guard off the bench, at least if he’s to stay long term.

[Effigy]

Prefer Simons as the 3rd guard


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The thing is, that's never going to happen. They aren't gong to put him on the bench behind Scoot and Sharpe. If Simons stays they will start him (and I assume try to start Sharpe at SF or maybe bring Sharpe off the bench which isn't ideal for his development). I agree his best role is as 6th man, but I just don't see him accepting that role here or us having the balls to force him. If we don't trade Simons we are looking at CJ 2.0.

It’s a very valid concern, and I think at least to start the year, we may very well see that lineup. But every indication is that the Blazers see Sharpe as a SG and they valued him as our most untouchable asset when shopping Simons and the 3rd pick. It was never Sharpe and the 3rd. I think the Blazers have made pretty clear who they see as their long term guy at SG.

They also just invested in Thybulle, drafted Murray and Rupert, and would very likely insist on Jaquez returning in a Dame trade. There will be no shortage of players fighting for minutes at the SF position, in addition to whatever odd minutes Grant might play there too. Sliding Sharpe at the 3 for significant stretches would just add to that log jam. The way the Blazers have constructed their roster, it really does look like Ant is meant to be the 3rd guard off the bench, at least if he’s to stay long term.

Good points, but the thing is that none of those SFs are guaranteed or even THAT likely to hit. Thybulle is Amino 2.0. Jaime Jaquez if we can get him, sure I like him and want him, but he's had one good summer league game, we're getting a little ahead of ourselves on counting on him. Hero is proven, he's a really good player and his value right now is low. I'd way rather have him than a first round pick, unless it's a guaranteed lottery pick which it won't be. I say accumulate the talent and then see what we have. We can always trade guys later.