Overarching 2024 goal, what should it be?

[eyriq]

I doubt the playoffs are the organization's goal for the season. Mosley is a player development coach and the front office are specifically stating this is another year of development and evaluation. I think management has full ownership buy-in for their "grow from within and grow slowly" strategy.

If the goal was the playoffs we would not have used both lottery picks and we would have replaced injury prone players on the trade market using draft capital.

I think the goal is quite literally to play better.

[SOUL]

I doubt the playoffs are the organization's goal for the season. Mosley is a player development coach and the front office are specifically stating this is another year of development and evaluation. I think management has full ownership buy-in for their "grow from within and grow slowly" strategy.

Counterpoint (using this a lot today ):

They want to "get better" (playins/playoffs) and not set something that sounds like a mandate - they know their players are already motivated to win. They weren't far away from the play-ins/playoff with a horrid injury-riddled start and they probably believe in the talent of the team enough to think they could naturally reach it with less injuries. You can evaluate while being a competitive team, and you can evaluate while having a bad team, I don't think the connotation of evaluation means strictly development.

Mose preached about higher expectations during the offseason, players openly talked about how the playoffs-or-bust is a goal for them next year (putting this on themselves), Weltman also stated the days are gone of gifting rookies a bunch of minutes are over.

If the goal was the playoffs we would not have used both lottery picks and we would have replaced injury prone players on the trade market using draft capital.

This seems a bit too literal. Any younger team could package picks + a player for a win now vet that may help short-term and completely screw everything else long-term, which is why you see a lot of those sort of trades not working out well for a team that just wants to get better but doesn't have a contending level roster. If you think you can reach the next level of progression through natural means with rookies sprinkled in (which here means probably 7-10 seed) - completely doable, then sure.

The second part.. I think the backup C/PF/SF will need an overhaul when we want to actually be like, perennial playoffs good. But a lot of these contracts are expiring next year.

[Bensational]

I doubt the playoffs are the organization's goal for the season. Mosley is a player development coach and the front office are specifically stating this is another year of development and evaluation. I think management has full ownership buy-in for their "grow from within and grow slowly" strategy.

If the goal was the playoffs we would not have used both lottery picks and we would have replaced injury prone players on the trade market using draft capital.

I think the goal is quite literally to play better.

They can set the playoffs as the goal even if they know they’ll fall short. Then they see by how much and adjust accordingly. They want to play meaningful basketball games and it can’t be meaningful without a goal of value. Play-ins/playoffs is the lowest you can really set.

Development will happen through practice and game minutes, and for Suggs, Black and Jett the goal is to outplay Harris, Fultz, Cole or Ingles for minutes. Given how much people complain about how poor our backcourt and wings are, that’s not an unreasonable bar to set for them, is it? If you’re not better than a couple of role playing veterans and “the worst starting PG in the league”, then how good are you?

[Knightro]

They can set the playoffs as the goal even if they know they’ll fall short. Then they see by how much and adjust accordingly. They want to play meaningful basketball games and it can’t be meaningful without a goal of value. Play-ins/playoffs is the lowest you can really set.

Development will happen through practice and game minutes, and for Suggs, Black and Jett the goal is to outplay Harris, Fultz, Cole or Ingles for minutes. Given how much people complain about how poor our backcourt and wings are, that’s not an unreasonable bar to set for them, is it? If you’re not better than a couple of role playing veterans and “the worst starting PG in the league”, then how good are you?

Some of this stuff is nice in theory, but in reality it is just not an accurate representation of how things actually work in the NBA.

If the guard rotation is Fultz backed up by Cole at PG and some combo of Harris/Suggs at SG, then there's no scenario for Black or Howard to "outplay" those guys for minutes because they won't be playing.

I don't understand how this is some crazy concept. Guys don't earn rotation spots by trying hard and making shots in practice. That just isn't how it works.

[Bensational]

They can set the playoffs as the goal even if they know they’ll fall short. Then they see by how much and adjust accordingly. They want to play meaningful basketball games and it can’t be meaningful without a goal of value. Play-ins/playoffs is the lowest you can really set.

Development will happen through practice and game minutes, and for Suggs, Black and Jett the goal is to outplay Harris, Fultz, Cole or Ingles for minutes. Given how much people complain about how poor our backcourt and wings are, that’s not an unreasonable bar to set for them, is it? If you’re not better than a couple of role playing veterans and “the worst starting PG in the league”, then how good are you?

Some of this stuff is nice in theory, but in reality it is just not an accurate representation of how things actually work in the NBA.

If the guard rotation is Fultz backed up by Cole at PG and some combo of Harris/Suggs at SG, then there's no scenario for Black or Howard to "outplay" those guys for minutes because they won't be playing.

I don't understand how this is some crazy concept. Guys don't earn rotation spots by trying hard and making shots in practice. That just isn't how it works.

It’s a crazy concept because you’re ignoring what’s been a fairly common development path throughout the course of the league - young guys earning roles and minutes from veterans ahead of them. They do that with what they show in practice, the minutes they’re given and how they handle it when they’re number is called to step into a larger role because someone is injured.

What are your estimates on Games Played and Minutes Per Game for both Black and Jett for the season?

[Knightro]

It’s a crazy concept because you’re ignoring what’s been a fairly common development path throughout the course of the league - young guys earning roles and minutes from veterans ahead of them. They do that with what they show in practice, the minutes they’re given and how they handle it when they’re number is called to step into a larger role because someone is injured.

What are your estimates on Games Played and Minutes Per Game for both Black and Jett for the season?

Respectfully, I think you are dramatically overestimating how much practice plays a role in determining an NBA rotation.

The coaching staff decides during training camp what their rotation is going to be and then guys they choose to be in the rotation will either earn more minutes and a bigger role or they will receive fewer minutes and a smaller role based on how well or how poorly they perform in the role they've been given.

If the role a player is given by the coaches is "not in the rotation/third string" - that player is not going to play his way into the rotation by being good in practice.

For example...

A guy like Jett Howard is not going to be in the rotation. That's pretty obvious. At best he's the third option 3rd in both the SG and SF pecking orders. Therefore there's no scenario outside of injury for him to "earn" more minutes over the veterans ahead of him because he simply won't be playing in actual games. He won't have the opportunity to "earn" more playing time because he won't actually be playing.

The dude could made 10 threes in every single practice scrimmage and it's not going to get him on the floor. That is just not how it works.

He simply won't enter the rotation until something happens that's entirely out of his control (someone ahead of him getting hurt, someone ahead of him playing like crap, a trade, etc.)

As far as your question goes, it's impossible to predict injuries.

All I know if that neither lottery pick right now projects to be in the 9 man rotation, which is pretty friggin' insane for a team that multiple Vegas sportsbooks are projecting to finish well under .500 (and for the record I think they'll be better than that, but the point still stands).

[Knightro]

If the goal is NOT playoffs or bust, then someone needs to explain to me why both lottery picks appear primed to not be in the rotation. Because that seems completely backwards to me.

Some of y'all are insisting that the playoffs aren't the goal, but the Magic went out of their way this summer (they didn't have to retain Gary or sign Ingles, they didn't have to keep both Markelle and Cole) to block both of their lotto picks? Make it make sense.

I wouldn't agree with it, but I could at least understand the thought process of keeping both rookies out of the rotation if the goal was to clearly to maximize wins and push for the playoffs.

[Rainwater]

If the goal is NOT playoffs or bust, then someone needs to explain to me why both lottery picks appear primed to not be in the rotation. Because that seems completely backwards to me.

Some of y'all are insisting that the playoffs aren't the goal, but the Magic went out of their way this summer (they didn't have to retain Gary or sign Ingles, they didn't have to keep both Markelle and Cole) to block both of their lotto picks? Make it make sense.

I wouldn't agree with it, but I could at least understand the thought process of keeping both rookies out of the rotation if the goal was to clearly to maximize wins and push for the playoffs.

We don’t know for sure if 1st round picks are primed not to be in the rotation.That is an assumption we will have to see if true when the season starts.

I don’t believe Ingles will get a lot of mins and I don’t believe the Magic wanted to lose Fultz and Cole for nothing.

[D12VCMagic]

If the goal is NOT playoffs or bust, then someone needs to explain to me why both lottery picks appear primed to not be in the rotation. Because that seems completely backwards to me.

Some of y'all are insisting that the playoffs aren't the goal, but the Magic went out of their way this summer (they didn't have to retain Gary or sign Ingles, they didn't have to keep both Markelle and Cole) to block both of their lotto picks? Make it make sense.

I wouldn't agree with it, but I could at least understand the thought process of keeping both rookies out of the rotation if the goal was to clearly to maximize wins and push for the playoffs.

I think playoffs are obviously the goal, but the front office isn’t taking a “playoffs or bust” approach. For better or worse, Weltman’s whole thing is being patient. His whole hiring was a reaction to the team prematurely trading away talented young players like Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris to go all in, so he certainly wasn’t going to do anything similar now. They are going to try to win, but they aren’t putting everything into winning now. They are still playing the long game, which is why we drafted Black with no immediate need for anything he brings.

[shadrock]

What the internal goals are and what they tell the media they are are two separate things. Internally they would be making it clear they want to raise the bar. Publicly, it makes sense to keep expectations low and not commit to any fixed measure of success.

[drsd]

.500 ball and play-in. As long as the core stay healthy.

This is the hard floor for Orlando. A 41-win play-in season is the minimal outcome, or there were will be a lot of grumpy players.

A hard push for the playoffs should be the goal.

This is where the players' minds must be. A hard push for 45 wins and the 6 seed is the target the Magic must aim for. Be ambitious.

Before the Magic gave up on games 79-82 (scrub time), after the 5-20 start, from game 26 to game 78 the Magic was 29-24. That is, a fully healthy team must expect to achieve at least that 55% win rate. Orlando has already proven that capacity. That's a 45-37 win season. Even if the Magic is not better this year than last, 45 wins is a realistic goal.

[drsd]

What the internal goals are and what they tell the media they are are two separate things. Internally they would be making it clear they want to raise the bar. Publicly, it makes sense to keep expectations low and not commit to any fixed measure of success.

In the Anthony interview when asked this question, his answer was "Orlando will make some noise in the East." The team has media training and knows to give non-answers to these questions!

[drsd]

I am really not shocked, they haven't done anything to show they want to make the playoffs. I really feel like its about growth, fans are the ones seeking the playoffs.

Did you not watch Banchero cry in the presser after Orlando got eliminated from playoff contention? The Magicians want to make the playoffs. All press has been about all the players working very, very hard this off-season.

Orlando will at least be mediocre this season. There is no place for bad anymore with this roster.

[drsd]

What are your estimates on Games Played and Minutes Per Game for both Black and Jett for the season?

Black has taken over RJ Hampton's roster slot. In 2022/23, he had about a 50% play rate (i.e. a 50% DNP-CD rate) and was at 14 mpg. So I expect Black to land about there minutes wise as a 3rd string PG. (this is the reason Orlando needs to trade Anthony, by the way).

Howard is a 4th stringer right now behind G-Harris, Suggs, and Houstan. He might not play at all and could be sent to Osceola for the whole season.

[zaymon]

We should try to make playoffs but on the back of our young players.
We dont have roster space and minutes for future young prospects so we should be not trying to lose on purpose. We will also not win championship next year so we need to keep our assets for the right window.

[pepe1991]

I don't think some people grasp what "nba workout" in regular season is.

it's not mindless 5 v 5 basketball game were player A destroys player B and becomes rotation player by doing so.

It's scheduled workout program that involves streaching , shoot around, going through scouting report of opposing team you face next, treatments, gym etc.

There is very little to no- actual basketball being played in workouts & practices.


During 2014 or 2015, somwhere toward Kobe's last year, Lakers allowed cameras to film whole preseason Camp workout that lasted over 2 hours. In that span, there was no "games" played, and it was mostly just bunch of boring drills and instructions for players what to do during XY situations.

Your coach won't "award" nor "punish" you based on your ability to dribble ball from half court against your teammate nor your ability to knock down shots over cone held by assistent coach.


There is also no serious team in basketball, let alone NBA ( maybe ubertankers) that would make 12 men rotation. It's near impossible to rotate that many players, nor you doing them any good by playing your starters 25 min top. Let's say your PG 48 min is split between 3 players. Best you can do is 25-15-8. What's the point of playing somebody 8 min a game? Why would your starter average 25 mpg? Why would you pay your starter XY money to esencially be backup who is payed like starter, who is starter, but happends to play bench min?

How would players feel about pitty-draft stock-min awarding? What's there to learn playing 8 min a game?


On opening night, i just don't see how Jett Howard is in active rotation. Maybe Black makes his dubt playing some 5-12 mpg, but that's maximum i can see he will get. And i also don't expect him to play at PG any time soon , given roster construction.

[eyriq]

I doubt the playoffs are the organization's goal for the season. Mosley is a player development coach and the front office are specifically stating this is another year of development and evaluation. I think management has full ownership buy-in for their "grow from within and grow slowly" strategy.

Counterpoint (using this a lot today ):

They want to "get better" (playins/playoffs) and not set something that sounds like a mandate - they know their players are already motivated to win. They weren't far away from the play-ins/playoff with a horrid injury-riddled start and they probably believe in the talent of the team enough to think they could naturally reach it with less injuries. You can evaluate while being a competitive team, and you can evaluate while having a bad team, I don't think the connotation of evaluation means strictly development.

Mose preached about higher expectations during the offseason, players openly talked about how the playoffs-or-bust is a goal for them next year (putting this on themselves), Weltman also stated the days are gone of gifting rookies a bunch of minutes are over.

If the goal was the playoffs we would not have used both lottery picks and we would have replaced injury prone players on the trade market using draft capital.

This seems a bit too literal. Any younger team could package picks + a player for a win now vet that may help short-term and completely screw everything else long-term, which is why you see a lot of those sort of trades not working out well for a team that just wants to get better but doesn't have a contending level roster. If you think you can reach the next level of progression through natural means with rookies sprinkled in (which here means probably 7-10 seed) - completely doable, then sure.

The second part.. I think the backup C/PF/SF will need an overhaul when we want to actually be like, perennial playoffs good. But a lot of these contracts are expiring next year.

You make some really insightful points and I definitely see where you're coming from. You're right, evaluation doesn't mean strictly development. It's also about figuring out what the team's strengths are, what pieces fit, and what needs to be improved upon.

However, I'm leaning towards the notion that a team in the developmental stage might not necessarily view playoffs as the primary goal. By all means, the team should strive to win every game and aim to be as competitive as possible. But in a season where the management has openly declared their focus to be growth and evaluation, it seems unlikely that they would pivot away from that vision for a quick playoffs dash.

To your point about Mosley's higher expectations and the player's playoffs-or-bust mentality, those are indeed critical indicators. However, I think that's more about fostering a culture of competitiveness and less about an organizational shift in strategy. Players should always aim to be the best and the coach should always push them towards those high standards.

About the rookies - I agree, there's no guaranteed success in packaging picks for a win-now veteran, and it's often detrimental in the long term. I believe this aligns with my argument that the organization isn't aiming for a quick fix, but rather a more sustainable growth plan.

You're also spot on with the need for an overhaul of the backup C/PF/SF. When the team is ready to make the jump to being perennial playoffs contenders, they'll need to ensure that every piece is as optimal as possible. In this respect, the expiring contracts could certainly provide some much-needed flexibility.

Let's see how the season unfolds. It's going to be interesting to see how the team progresses under this strategy.

[Skybox]

Publicly…”playoffs”, great visual target/mission

Really, imo 40+ wins would be a success, wherever that lands us…WAS is the only obvious tanker in the East, so blowing past a handful of teams is not guaranteed. Much will depend on which teams are hit by injuries or dissension.

Overarching goal…to sort out this ridiculous roster and make decisions between good players. The concept of “ongoing position battles bringing out the best in each of them” is not realistic…this is not middle school tryouts. Coach and FO need to make decisions to shape the team. Black and Howard don’t get handed starting spots - but discussing them not being in the 10 man rotation is nuts. They’re not 2rps or raw projects new to basketball. Some realistic hierarchy must be established.

*I would add that ORL’s kumbaya love fest fraternity could easily become dissension if guys (rightly) feel like they’re not being utilized or that the FO is leaving them twisting and damaging their careers with their patient unclear approach

[Ralof]

goal for front office is buying time and postpone,as always has been.

people think there is some sort of crazy project behind decision to draft Black for example,only project is to replace one between Fultz or Anthony with a younger piece so they can say"still young,need more time to develop players,organic,patience,bla,bla,bla"

we are talking about execs who need one entire year to evaluate fournier,vucevic,gordon,ecc. and kept running that core until all the league was laughing at us.

Playoff is not a goal for sure,should probably be,but it is not as work at magic organization.
if you want to make PO,with pics,cap space and a lot of young pieces,you can easily do whatever you want to reach the goal.

[eyriq]

If the goal is NOT playoffs or bust, then someone needs to explain to me why both lottery picks appear primed to not be in the rotation. Because that seems completely backwards to me.

Some of y'all are insisting that the playoffs aren't the goal, but the Magic went out of their way this summer (they didn't have to retain Gary or sign Ingles, they didn't have to keep both Markelle and Cole) to block both of their lotto picks? Make it make sense.

I wouldn't agree with it, but I could at least understand the thought process of keeping both rookies out of the rotation if the goal was to clearly to maximize wins and push for the playoffs.

ESPN has both rookies in the rotation. They aren't "primed" to not be in the rotation.

I don't understand why we'd even think this team is positioned to ignore developing two lottery picks that have star potential.

We beat Vegas last season because Franz had one of the best defensive impacts in team history (DRPM > 7), and Paolo gave us an offensive identity. They are the engine.

Some of the supporting cast from the retool era, namely Fultz, had a bounce back year.

Some of the rookie scale contracts from the retool era, like Cole, took a step back role rise.

Some of the pieces brought in from the tear-down showed promise, namely WCJ. While some didn't, like Harris who drastically under-performed.

The central pieces for this team are who we brought in from the tear-down and tank phase. Paolo, Franz, Suggs, Black, Jett, and WCJ. These players are where we are going to focus our player development resources.

Stuff from previous team building stages are going to get let go or moved in trades IMO.

This is my read on what this front office is doing.