RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Hakeem Olajuwon)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Hakeem Olajuwon) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jul 16, 2023 1:26 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. There will also be a Nomination vote where whoever gets nominated by the most voters gets added to the Nominee list for subsequent votes. This is again optional.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
eminence
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
lessthanjake
ljspeelman
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
One_and_Done
penbeast0
rk2023
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Wilt Chamberlain
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Magic Johnson
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Shaquille O'Neal
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Hakeem Olajuwon
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Kevin Garnett
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Sun Jul 16, 2023 1:44 pm

The best aspect of RealGM is how it functions as a basketball archive. Accordingly, I would hope the overall analysis in these projects progressively improves by some degree, because by rights we all can take and build upon the best of our predecessors.

F4p has done an excellent job constructing the case for Hakeem, but I think that case is even better served when incorporating the best commentary from posters previously involved in these projects and discussions. By my standards, few were as ahead on this subject in aggregate as fatal9.
fatal9 wrote:Re: Hakeem

His 80s career is a bit underrated. He didn't have the team game down like he did in the 90s, possibly because of how late he learned the game, but still, he was a monster.

'85 - improves lottery team to the playoffs, Rockets go from one of the worst defenses in the league to 4th best (though he was a lousy post defender early on in his career imo).

'86 - improves Rockets to 51 wins (would have been more if he didn't miss 14 games). The only time anyone took down the 80s Lakers in a 7 game series before they got to the finals. Averaged 31 ppg on 52 FG%, 58 TS% in that series, and lots of blocks and rebounds (missing some boxscores). Played well against what was probably the greatest team ever in the '86 Celtics while most of his team shrank particularly Sampson. The guy showed by just his second year he could take down all-time great teams, lead his team to the finals when given a proper cast.

'87 - The promising team around him begins to fall apart. Mitchell Wiggins and Lewis Lloyd got suspended for doing coke, Sampson played only half the season and was limited even when he was on the court. Sampson and him played for the first time in almost 3 months when the playoffs started. What he did in these playoffs was very underrated IMO, 29/11/3/4 on 66 TS% (!) over 10 games (in under 39 mpg). Upset the Blazers in the first round, only game they lost in that series was the one where he got in foul trouble and the Rockets got outscored 27-12 in the quarter. Then came the Sonics (who came off beating the 55 win Mavs team), he played/shot well in every game. His ONLY bad game was game 4 where he was limited to 27 minutes due to foul trouble. Ellis was on fire and then Chambers came on late, Rockets were outgunned. In the elimination game he had 49/26/5/6 on 19/33 shooting, including scoring 17 of the last 25 points for the Rockets.

'88 - He put up the highest PER ever in the playoffs albeit only over 4 games. I've only seen two games from the series, and can't begin to comment on how poorly the guards shot (Sleepy played well in game 2, that's it, his other three games were horrific). Hakeem put up 34/14, 41/26, 35/12 and in the elimination game 40/15 @ 57 FG% (64 TS%) for the series. These numbers are nuts. Lost to the same team that took LA to 7 games in the next round.

His career did hit bit of lull under Don Chaney, which IMO is the biggest reason his career didn't turn out even greater than it was. The chuckers on the team got too much control of the offense, ball ran through Hakeem way less until Rudy T came in and then we saw Hakeem's talent truly shine from '93-'97. His prime stretch from '93-'95 is one of the five greatest primes for me, comparable to just about anyone. Any time the playoffs rolled around, he almost always brought his A game.

It's like Hakeem's ridiculous peak makes people think he was some marginal player before the '93 season. He was the top center in the league most of those years, a top 5 player at minimum in all of those years (except rookie season) and was making both all-NBA first and all-NBA defense first teams, basically secured a playoff birth for shoddy teams each year, performed at a high level individually when he got there, whose presence essentially secures a top 5 defense year after year, and who even took down the Laker western conference dynasty on route to the finals by just his second year. For example, what makes Magic's '80-'86 career so much more valuable? Or Shaq's career from '93-'99? And so on. Whether Hakeem could have played the way he did in his best years is up for debate, but it doesn't mean that because he raised the bar so high with his peak, that he was some borderline all-star player for rest of his career. Dude by his second year, with a decent team, got within 2 wins of a championship, losing only to a team that is argued to be the greatest team ever. He didn't magically lose his ability to play the game afterwards. Bad situations often make players look worse than they really are, good situations often make players better than they really are.

For almost all of Hakeem's pre-peak years, the 3 point shot WAS NOT A FACTOR in the offense (and even in years like '93, '94, the three point shooting support wasn't actually that great compared to the 00s). It wasn't something that was an active part of the offense. The average team in the 00s made more threes in one season than the Rockets did from '85-'90 combined. This is a huge factor because the role player became more valuable offensively and a dimension was added to the offense that especially helps post players (ie. Duncan) and players who use drive and kick to make a lot of plays (ie. LeBron). You know what happened when Hakeem had role players who could do an adequate job of making threes? Championships.

Meanwhile, reduce the use of the three point shot, give them worse role players, worse coaching, dysfunctional teams and see what the result would be. Give Shaq crappy primary ball handlers (ie. no Penny, Kobe, Wade), reduce the number of threes his teams take to under 100, give him bad coaching, offenses that lack structure and worse talent (ie. teams that aren't putting up winning records year after year when he was missing games), and there will legitimately be years where Shaq would miss playoffs in Hakeem's situation (particularly years where Shaq was missing 20+ games and his team goes 6-21 or something). Wouldn't make Shaq any worse of a player or LeBron or Duncan, any worse as players, but according to many, it would. Everything matters. Coaching matters, teammates matter, type of strategies used on both ends matters, all these factors go into producing a win total, and if you don't think it does, then you're watching games with a box over your head. If you want to keep it simple and not worry about all these factors, just breakdown a player's game, know what things he can consistently do and can't do and you get a fairly accurate picture of how good he is.

Yes, he wasn't the offensive anchor he would go on to become later, but this is still one of the best scoring/offensive big men of all time. From '86-'89 over 38 playoff games, Hakeem averages 28.4 ppg on 55 FG%/60 TS% in 38.9 mpg (36 ppg/100 poss). In terms of pure scoring that's up there with ANY big man, he demolished team after team in the playoffs. I've read young Hakeem described as offensively “raw”, which is a very liberal use of that word. Certain parts of his game were less developed than you'd like but "raw" isn't an accurate word to describe someone who already possessed all-time great scoring skills for his position, as 80s Hakeem did. If I had more time, I’d try to post more 80s Hakeem playoff games than there are on youtube. Here’s a typical good game from him:


Looks “raw”, doesn’t he? The play at 4:15, shrink him down 6 inches and you could pass it off as Jordan. There's still a decent bit out there for people to get an idea of his skill-set at the early stages of his career. As always, game footage is preferable because it shows limitations as well. At worst offensively at this stage, he’s like a more physically gifted and considerably more skilled (especially in the post) Amare (who at his best was one of the best offensive big men of this decade).

Now Hakeem's offensive game did have some weaknesses in the 80s, he didn't quite read defenses as well as he did later on, he passed more to get rid of the ball when he couldn't do anything with it rather than to create a play, could take shots that would be best described as “ambitious”. However, he still brings a lot of value with great post scoring that demands double teams, excellent midrange shooting, maniacal offensive rebounding (avg’d 13.5 ORB% in 80s, which drew early comparisons to Moses), exceptional motor to get good position, strong finishing around the rim, very high skill-set to score one on one from many spots on the floor and the usual frenetic activity on both ends attributable to his insane motor. While we have come to associate Hakeem with finesse, young Hakeem had finesse combined with a bit of a power game, but his game was more unstructured compared to later. He was like a hyper aggressive bull who tried to dunk anything around the basket, reveled in physicality and possessed a very aggressive scoring mindset that relentlessly placed pressure on defenses whenever he got the ball, but he still possessed the soft touch, footwork and finesse of a guard, still operated on teams with baseline fadeaways and jump hooks, still had the ability to balance himself to get almost any kind of a shot off. His game was wild, watching some of these 80s Hakeem playoff games, at times it's like a loose circus elephant on a rampage (probably how the Lakers felt in '86). Lot of confidence, almost to the point of irrationality, makes you blurt out “who the hell does that?” (or as Heinsohn says “I tell ya, this guy Olajuwon, doesn’t know fear at all”). His talent was so supreme, his game so unconventional, that even early in his career, it appears teams could not consider dealing with him over a playoff series, his skill and unrelenting floor activity overwhelmed them, not some second rate teams either, but dynastic ones of the era like the Lakers and Celtics. The indefensible nature of his offensive game is still there, and it's a serious problem for teams over a series. Even at this stage of his career, I would say offensively at the center position, only prime Shaq and KAJ can be thought of as being clearly better. Some people write off his career pre-'93 as if he's some marginal player, especially offensively ("raw"), but he's still playing at a level that is above the peaks of the second tier centers and like usual, due to the nature of his game, he becomes even more dangerous come playoff time.

I don’t actually think Hakeem is having a huge offensive impact during the Chaney years because of how poorly the offense is organized/structured. There’s really not much synergy between him and his teammates. Watching the Lakers series in ’90, when he’s getting an outrageous amount of defensive attention, Rockets are basically clueless on how to actually take advantage of all the defensive attention he is drawing. Even when the first pass by Hakeem was a proper one, the second and third passes by his teammates weren’t (very lazy, slow, indecisive passing that allows defense to recover despite how compromised it was). There is very poor player movement, the floor spacing is puzzling at times and the Rockets were known for being a very poor half court passing team (the guards not exactly a smart, altruistic bunch). In contrast, Lakers know exactly where the ball is going after Magic or Worthy (who btw undressed Buck Johnson in the series) kicks it out of a double team and the second and third guys make the quick hitting plays to get the right guy the ball. To be fair, Hakeem iirc was also was frustrated by the attention and forced bad shots at times, but it's alarming how incapable Houston was of exploiting such aggressive double/triple teaming.

So there are weaknesses in young Hakeem’s game if your expectation is to make him the focal point to run your offense through. At this stage, Hakeem needs a good point guard or perimeter player to help run the offense as well as create situations to take advantage of his broad offensive skills (particularly strong finishing ability and midrange shooting), which is fine because most big men are at the mercy of the perimeter players they play with who handle the ball, help create a more dynamic offense and also help put their bigs in good position to score (prime Hakeem needed a dynamic perimeter player less than most centers do, because his game by itself was so dynamic). Also a coach who adds a bit more structure to help him read and predict defenses at team level better would have been helpful. So younger Hakeem may not be as capable of carrying teams with average players, but his game brings a lot of value if you put him next to some half decent perimeter players (like most players in the top 10 had the benefit of being around for a longer portion of their career than Hakeem did).

BTW I also think Hakeem’s game allows talented somewhat ball dominant guards to play more freely around him than other bigs, his skill-set and versatility doesn’t need to bog them down as much which is a slight problem for bigs who only play exclusively in the post and take a lot of clocktime to create scoring opportunities for themselves (with the right players, you can play a bit of small ball offense with Hakeem, with all 5 players capable of attacking and shooting, without actually sacrificing your defense, we saw that in ’95 playoffs for example). I'm not actually a fan of making bigs, especially those with rigid games, the centerpiece of the offense if you have decent talent elsewhere, it's only practical if the big scores on supreme efficiency, is incredibly reliable against various types of defenses, uncontainable in single coverage, or has the skill-set to fit in and “get his” around perimeter guys without needing to necessarily demand, hold and dribble dribble dribble to score. Hakeem at basically every stage of his career, passes that test.

Older Hakeem was wiser, more capable and his offensive game was more structured, but we shouldn't discount younger Hakeem offensively as he brought value in a slightly different way. Hakeem’s proponents aren’t exactly saying he would have played like ’93 all those years (at least not me), there are clear distinctions separating young Hakeem and the one of his peak years (though there’s a possibility he gets there sooner, I think by ’90 he was there). Instead, they are drawing attention to the fact that 80s Hakeem is still really damn good, like all-time good, able to lead teams to championships good. But due to what we call on this board “winning bias”, many have a manic-depressive way of evaluating careers. We often see this with Kareem and Hakeem, where they came on strong in their first few seasons, then are placed in bad situations (usually situation improves over time for a star player), and people sour on those parts of their career as if they were forgettable periods where they were incapable of leading teams to championships and call these as the meme goes; "black marks".

Good situations make players look better than they are, and bad situations paint them worse than they are. Bad situations makes people magnify things that are apparently passable in good situations, like for Hakeem, people point out that early on he wasn’t as good as his peak years…which would be the case for like virtually every player ever. I think there’s a strong argument for there being a bigger gap between ‘87 Magic and ’82 Magic, than there is between ‘93 Hakeem and ‘86 Hakeem (and not because peak Magic was better than peak Hakeem), but for most people it’s only a big problem in the latter case and that’s mainly due to “winning bias”. Everyone’s skill-set evolves over time as they reduce their weaknesses and enhance what they already do well. The skill-set of a player (synonymous for me as “fundamental qualities of a player”) if you have a good handle of it, stays largely constant over a season (though can vary and evolve season to season). The skill-set of a player’s game gets you a good picture of his talent level, and will determine what kind of players can fit around him, what kind of a system you can run on both ends, the ceiling you can achieve on either end by featuring him and the synergy of it all ultimately leads to impact (also skill-set also allows you to figure out the value and reliability of a player in the playoffs, something that’s of huge importance for me). Hakeem didn’t just go on a mid-career vacation after leading his team to the finals, the situation around him deteriorated rapidly, everything that could go wrong, did. I’d only suggest that we should seek to have a good handle of 80s Hakeem’s game instead of dismissing it as I've seen done due to circumstances outside of his control (ditto for other players), because at that point you're not rating the player anymore, instead you're rating some sort of an odd combination of the player himself, his teammates and the quality of management + coach he played under.

Key is that you have to use Hakeem's talent the right way. In his prime he was literally the perfect player to build around. Monster defender who guaranteed you a top defense in the league, 30 points a night, great decision making and passing ability that the ENTIRE offense was built around (no one on Houston was good at creating their own shot, they depended so much Hakeem's presence), unstoppable one on one scoring against any one (most double teamed big I've seen after Shaq), high bball IQ and quick decision making (this is what made him go to the next level in '93, his decision making became amazing, most centers don't act quick enough), not a liability in crunch time like many other centers, ability to outplay anyone put in front of him and an absolute ASSASSIN in big games (MJ like nerves and killer instinct, the man would just not go away).

Only very few superstars can consistently make shots over the defense while maintaining a high level of efficiency, Hakeem was one of them (Jordan, Kobe two other that stick out, though Kobe's ego takes a bit too far with this). Depending on the situation, how set the defense is, what the time on the clock is, it isn’t exactly a bad thing to have an extraordinary shot maker on your team and overall, well placed aggression as a scorer places tremendous pressure on the defense. With many centers and low post players, you can devise strategies to really limit their touches and get the ball out of their hands because they have less floor space to work with, and limited spots to start their offense from. This was less of a problem for Hakeem, because he was better at making adjustments to you, than you were to him (on both ends). So if he's being double teamed, he can step outside and spot up for midrange jumpers (or use his quickness to evade doubles altogether). He is also a more dynamic playmaker in the post, he doesn't necessarily have to wait for a double team to create a play like most centers and he can also attack facing up from the perimeter. Of course there’s a fine balance, but it didn't come at the expense of his teammates or his own efficiency, the Rockets role players thrived with Hakeem. Hakeem's offensive decision making was very good and he did use the defensive attention the right way to create countless looks for his teammates, that was the foundation of their entire half court offense, and Hakeem was lauded for how well he synchronized his game with rest of the team.

Okay, he's not Vlade or Sabonis or Walton, and Shaq probably is a bit better at passing, but to call him subpar? especially as a center? SUB-PAR? Against a focused/elite team defense, like the kind we've already seen him perform well against in the playoffs? Somehow his offensive decision making, which is excellent, has been turned into a weakness. If I don't have a star guard to give my offense the kind of dynamic playmaking that is important in the playoffs (ie. team is filled with role players/shooters instead of all-star guards), I would comfortably take Hakeem to lead my offense in the playoffs over Shaq. His dynamic form of playmaking is much more valuable and harder to plan around than the traditional, "wait for a double team" strategy (where the defense can make adjustments to control exactly when they double, who they double off and where they double from).

This is what often makes big men not so good solo offensive/volume scoring anchors in playoffs, their game is a lot more rigid, they can have problems syncing high volume scoring with keeping rest of the team involved and engaged. You just don't get big men averaging close to 5 apg while scoring 30+ ppg, they are just not dynamic enough as playmakers. Dude consistently averaged more apg in a volume scoring role than any other center, and somehow he's been turned into a subpar passer. '93-'95 Hakeem averaged more assists than '00-02 Shaq and turned the ball over less, has lower TO/TO% and higher ast/ast% numbers over their entire playoff career when the "defense is focused". Rockets even used to run a play with Otis Thorpe and Hakeem, where Hakeem would make a lob post entry feed to OT over the defense, rarely see that kind of a play run with a center making the feed. You can see him striking shooters all game, finding players who are cutting, consistently made the right pass in crunchtime to win huge playoff games. Hakeem was also a master at using a single dribble to collapse a defense, people need to take a note of this when they watch him play, one well used dribble and he creates a play on call. He might not be the GOAT passing big man, but to be critical of his passing and ability to read the defense, two things that are actually major strengths for his position, doesn't make much sense at all.

I think in a setting where there's no all-star guard to give your offense added variability, Hakeem is actually the better option to have in the playoffs. Also while efficiency and boxscore stats are usually used to point out Shaq's superiority, in the playoffs, Hakeem from '86-'95 (102 games) actually had a better TS% and O-Rating than Shaq did from '95-'04 (115 games), and higher scoring per 36. A lot of Shaq's regular season boxscore advantage over Hakeem basically disappears in the playoffs. Not that boxscore should matter that much anyways, but understandably it's important data for some.

Even if he's being triple teamed all game, at his peak he was better at affecting the game defensively and with his overall floor activity. Some of Hakeem's most dominant playoff games are ones where he didn't even break 25 points, instead he dominated in every way possible, especially defensively, altering countless shots, both in the paint and on the perimeter, forcing turnovers and disrupting plays with his floor activity, and igniting many fast breaks with his defense (some games that come to mind, G3, G4, and G7 vs. Sonics in '93, close out game vs. Jazz in '94 among others). Like this is a game where Hakeem had 22 points on less than 50% shooting , but his dominance is never in question.


Just because I really enjoy talking about Hakeem's defense, I'll write down some things that made him such a complete and impactful defender in my mind.

    His post defense. He makes a swipe at the ball when the guy in the post is receiving it, which would be classified as "gamble defense" for most centers, but due to his quick feet, he recovers right away and then plays you straight up. This is such a nuisance for guys in the post because there's no time to gather yourself and get into your move, dude is ALWAYS pressuring you, on the post entry pass, then when you make your move he is reacting quickly with his feet to take that away, his quick hands are taking away the ball if you expose it and then uses his impeccable timing to contest your shot. Phenomenal defensive footwork, look at how much trouble Ewing had against him in the post because of this. Even when you see him against someone so physically dominant as a Shaq, he could still make a player like him have inefficient offensive games. No one is going to contain Shaq one on one or when he has position on you…he will score and he did against Hakeem. But in that series Hakeem used his quick feet (to get in position and draw offensive fouls) and hands to make Shaq very turnover prone (something that is NEVER mentioned when people post their respective ppg/FG% stats, Shaq averaged 5.3 TOs, more than he has in any playoff series of his career). His savviness depending on the opponent is an underrated part of his overall post defense. I read a post (bastillon’s I think) a while ago where performances of opposing centers were summed up and against Hakeem they saw the biggest drop (yes, aware that centers don't play each other straight up over a full game, but it's something to consider).

    His pick and roll defense is KG like, except he has even quicker feet. Best I've seen at shutting down the most effective offensive play in basketball for most teams (Duncan's pick and roll D is a joke in comparison). As Kenny mentions in that open court clip, when you put into words what he's doing when defending the pick and roll, it sounds ridiculous, it IS ridiculous, but...he was actually doing it. This is of course one play and it's an example of how ridiculous his pick and roll and overall floor coverage was:



    This is going to annoy some people because I’m highlighting one play (and I get why it would) but lets look at what he’s doing for a second here. Dude went out to the three point line to cover the pick and roll, made a clean swipe at the ball to pressure the guard (often stripped them like this), then recovers to shadow the guard and stays between him and the basket to intimidate him out of a layup, then gets in the paint and makes a shot block at the rim off the pass to a guy who thinks he's open, all while keeping the ball in play for a fast break opportunity. And the thing is, he did stuff like this in every game, and if you need to be convinced of that, watch his playoff games from ’93 and ’94. His pick and roll coverage from any spot on the floor was deadly, had the ability to defend basically every option that develops from it. Which other big man did it better?

    His overall floor defense. No such thing as a “mismatch” exists if Hakeem was switched on to you, doesn’t matter if you’re a forward or a guard, he had the feet to stay in front of you. In the '93 series vs. Sonics who had all sorts of perimeter scorers, watch how well he stays in front of them. He clears up his teammates (and own) mistakes because his recovery defense and floor coverage is amazing. His instincts too, he's great at seeing offensive plays develop. I was watching the Jazz series a while ago, all these cute little plays those guys ran like pindowns for Malone and backscreens and what not, Hakeem would come in and just take that away from them (averaged 2.6 steals, 4.6 blks partly because of how he could read what they wanted). He would come up from somewhere above the foul line (illegal defense restrictions of the time) and come out of nowhere to take away those easy Malone baskets when he is pinning down the forwards (in game 5 Snapper Jones remarks “the problem for Karl Malone is he can’t find Hakeem Olajuwon”). He made so many game winning (and even championship winning) plays at the end of games when teams were running their bread and butter plays, because he was good at reading them (who does that remind you of?). It was that sort of cerebral ability to read his opposition which he combined with everything else he did (you can definitely argue he maybe didn't have in his younger years), that made his defensive impact so huge. Hubie Brown made a great remark about Hakeem regarding his understanding of the game given how late he learned it, "he has a PhD in basketball, but where did he get it?"

    Then he could absolutely lock down the paint with his shot blocking and altering. King of surprise weak side blocks, could get his own man, challenge guards and make them have to shoot low percentage floaters in the lane. His timing, reflexes and the quickness of his jump are unparalleled at his position. Not many, if any shot blockers you can call better, and usually he kept the ball in play to trigger fast breaks.

    His activity. If you watch playoff games from his prime, announcers are always asking "does this guy ever get tired?" He would wear down his opponent on offense and then not let up at all on defense. Nightmare matchup for opposing Cs because of this and it helped him win one on one matchups. His activity and stamina was on another level to everyone else on the court (prime MJ like, where the player makes you feel like he is "everywhere" and involved in every big play on both ends). Does such a great job of getting back on defense and covering people in transition too, the motor is always running.

    His team stats. Since he came into the league, his team was top 5 in defense 8 of out 10 years. And when he was out, his teams generally saw a big decline. If that's your thing, ElGee’s post earlier in the thread sums it up.
If you want to hear what coaches and players who played against him or watched him thought of his defensive skills, hit up google and look at the awe they are in with how he is able to impact the game defensively. It’s a little bit of a shame that the ’95 run is his defining GOAT moment for a lot of people, because they miss out the better defense he is playing in previous years (not to say he wasn’t still among the best in ’95, but overall activity/rebounding wise he had taken a step back from the standard he set in earlier years).

Back to back defensive player of the years when Ewing was anchoring historical defenses, Mutombo was leading the league in blocks and D-Rob was his usual phenomenal self. Elevating him above KG and Duncan isn’t an insult to those guys, he could just do more than them, it's obvious to me from watching them play, kind of like KG’s overall floor defense with Timmy’s paint defense and shot blocking. Imagine everything you want out of a big man defensively and Hakeem basically gave that to you. You think Timmy and KG are better? Fine, I strongly disagree, but everyone has their opinion. But no need to act like Hakeem doesn’t warrant his position as the 2nd defensive GOAT. Based on watching him play, his skills, his well roundedness, his numbers, his team impact, opinion of people around the game, anyway you slice it, dude deserves the praise he gets on defense. There have been great big men who did some of the things I mentioned (Duncan/KG), some who did most of the things I mentioned (D-Rob), but did anyone do ALL of them at the level Hakeem did?

With such a high importance that good teams place on exploiting matchup weaknesses in the PS, a guy like Hakeem who a) shores up so many things for a team (from a reliable volume scorer, playmaking hub, to pick and roll d and overall floor defense, to shot blocking, etc etc, literally all major facets of the game), and b) is so good at making adjustments to his opponent, both in his individual matchup and against team strategies, peak Hakeem is the ultimate matchup ace to have heading into a playoff series. Even if you have LeBron or Jordan, your interior defense and rebounding might be getting killed (like it was for the Heat this year), even if you have Shaq, your pick and roll defense might be getting killed (among other things), with Hakeem, his impact is so versatile and expansive that he takes away a lot of the opponents' potential matchup advantages while presenting a set of his own to them.

If you value primes and playoff performance highly (two most important things for me personally), he has a very good case for top 5. You need to watch him play, need to see the situations he confronted, how he played on a game by game basis, how immensely valuable he was to his teams. The reason why many people think so highly of him because at his peak, he left you nothing to criticize because he did everything, won every big game, performed HUGE on the biggest stage, faced stiff competition and outplayed everyone. Did it like MJ did from ’91-’93, played in a way that left no doubt in anyone's mind. Now people are acting like putting Hakeem in the highest of highest leagues is revisionist history or overrating him, but take a closer look, the man played THAT well.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jul 16, 2023 1:44 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:.


Not to step on any toes, but just a heads up that I've started the next thread.

Getting my vote in quick (sadly, without reading anything new) before I have to leave town.

I'm reasonably set on my pick: a dominant [at least some years, good in others] defensive force who was also capable of leading the league in scoring on GOOD shooting efficiency (did so seven times, in fact). Was as high as 2nd in the league in apg in another year, though admittedly his assists are of the very stationary "vanilla" (or "Rondo") variety.
He failed to win as much as we might hope or expect, though had some decidedly bad luck with teammate injuries or bed-wetting in at least a couple years, not to mention he was up against the premiere dynasty of the sport's history through most of his career. At the helm of that dynasty was his rival and quintessential comparison, for whom both media and fans [both at the time and still to this day] ask the question, "who was better?"

That rival was already voted in not one, but TWO places ago.
In my own gauging formulas (which admittedly have some box inputs), Wilt consistently ranks either 4th or 5th all-time (usually 4th). I'm toying with some season-by-season "player tier" ratings [in a vacuum] to use in a CORP format, and then weighting that against an era-strength assessment; he comes in 6th for me there.

As to his personality, temperament, off-court qualities.......well, there's a lot of divergent information on the topic. ZeppelinPage provided multiple positive accounts and a lot of context for his career; I believe Doctor MJ provided some counterpoints, though I've not had a chance to read it. Someone else brought up some evidence that Wilt wanted out of Philly even while Hannum was still around, too.
So I'm not 100% sure where I stand on these things. But nonetheless, with Russell already off the table, Wilt still ends up my pick.

The only guy super-close for me is another physical freak and dominant big: Shaq. I could be convinced to swap them, though don't think I'll have time before deadline. Besides, Wilt seems the more "strategic" pick, based on sentiment so far.

Hope this will suffice for justification.


VOTE: Wilt Chamberlain
Alternate: Shaquille O'Neal
Nomination: Kobe Bryant


Wow, I just realized I probably look like a Laker homer with those^^ picks. :oops: I'm really not, though.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#4 » by ZeppelinPage » Sun Jul 16, 2023 1:47 pm

Vote: Wilt Chamberlain
Alternate: Shaquille O'Neal
Nomination: Jerry West

Shaq gets the nod as the alternate vote for me. Dominance in the playoffs made him seemingly unstoppable at times.

With Curry already getting some nomination votes I'd like to get Jerry West in the discussion here soon. Incredible two-way player and ranks 10th in Career TS Added on high volume.

Here are some posts I've made during this project to explain my Wilt vote:

1. Wilt Chamberlain's Personality: Being Coachable & His Desire to Win

2. Wilt's Playoff Luck Regarding Injuries
Spoiler:
Wilt wasn't as fortunate to have a consistently healthy and deep team, which is why I don't think it's as simple as assessing his championships and blaming him. If a player performs in a playoff setting but his teammates falter, I don't hold him accountable unless there's reason to believe otherwise. After all, basketball is fundamentally a team game played by five players. Wilt faced the most formidable competition of any superstar in NBA history throughout his career, always performing at or above his regular season level that his teammates, either injured or floundering, couldn't match. Much of the time, Wilt was losing to teams with a better SRS, the teams usually being apart of the greatest dynasty in NBA history. Therefore, he was regularly confronted with a steep mountain to climb.

Not only were his teams often the underdogs, but his teammates frequently grappled with injuries. Here are some examples:

1962: The Warriors lose on a last-second Sam Jones buzzer beater in Game 7. Tom Gola, their second-best player and exceptional defender, was essentially out for most of the series, playing only 107 minutes in 4 games. Wilt came close to defeating the Celtics here.

1965: Havlicek stole the ball. Larry Costello played through injury the entire series and averaged only 5 points per game. Another extremely close game was played without a key player.

So, his team's lack of talent was further exacerbated by injuries.

Looking at '68-'73, almost every post-season besides 1972 involved some kind of injury:

1968: Almost the entire starting lineup was injured and missing Billy Cunningham.
1969: Jerry West had a torn hamstring, and van Breda Kolff didn't put Wilt back in the game.
1970: Wilt returned early from a knee injury, and Jerry West played in the Finals with injuries to both his hands.
1971: Jerry West was out for the playoffs.
1973: Both Wilt and West were injured.

I'm not sure how much blame I can place on Wilt when, in many instances, a key player was either out or playing injured. These injuries are beyond Wilt's control. In the playoffs, he gave his teams a substantial boost, trying to overcome factors beyond his control like injuries and roster construction.

This is a rather drawn-out way of explaining why I don't center my arguments around championships, or the lack thereof, when determining a player's impact. A player can only play with the hand he's dealt and do his best to overcome adversity. Despite Wilt being plagued with untimely injuries and lackluster teammate performances, I believe he offered his team an unparalleled overall boost in every area of the game.

3. The Complexity of Comparing Wilt's Game to Modern Eras
Spoiler:
True, 70sFan. Not only that but I also think comparing Wilt's game with modern eras is a complex matter.

When analyzing these players it's important to think of the game without our benefit of hindsight. We can look back with a modern lens but they could not. A lot of rules that aided future players were not available to earlier eras.

For instance, dribble rules and overall spacing made finding cutters and anything other than jumpers significantly more difficult in the 1950s and 1960s. Refs were also harsher on travel calls. This is why the fast break was so popular as it was the easiest way to score with the spacing it provided before the defense was set. It was also more difficult because, as you know, the offensive foul rules and quick three in the key calls that refs would make. Creating your own offense in the half-court was not an easy thing to do back then and teams relied more on moving the ball around.

This leads into why Hannum implemented his "wheel offense" with Wilt, where players would constantly move around him in a wheel to keep the defense guessing and give Wilt options as a way to counteract how difficult it was to score in the half-court.

There is a substantial difference in the rules between what Wilt and guys like Jokic and Jordan played under. The rules in Wilt's time made it harder for a player to back a defender down and apply pressure and "generate offense" consistently.

I don't really care how Shaq played in 2000s, I don't care how Jokic is playing, I don't care how Hakeem or any other center outside of his era played because, to me, it doesn't matter. Wilt could only play within the confines of his rules and era. And within that era, with him playing that way, the team was the greatest offense ever. His passing and scoring must have been really valuable.

Although there are certainly instances where Wilt draws doubles and passes or hits cutters on film. I just don't find it fair to watch Jokic or someone else and then criticize Wilt for not playing similarly, because they played under separate rules where the game was thought of in different ways.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#5 » by AEnigma » Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:19 pm

VOTE: Hakeem Olajuwon
Nomination: Kobe Bryant


Voting Hakeem here because I trust him the most in the postseason. F4p has thoroughly covered various angles of that idea, and I largely find the stance self-evident anyway. I hope that fatal9 consolidation post covers most of the remaining gaps, but fatal9 referenced ElGee’s impact analysis, and I would be remiss to not share that as well:
ElGee wrote:While we're here, I want to echo something Doc MJ said. It's plausible to me Hakeem Olajuwon is the greatest player in NBA history (depending on criteria). He also may very well be outside the top-10. Why the uncertainty?

First of all, he was a foreign Muslim dude playing in Houston. Not exactly Air Jordan in Chi-Town or Magic in the Wood. And I wonder, as we are wont to do, if much of his impact was muted early on because of this. There's only so much re-examining one can do here without firing up every Rockets game from the 80s and hand-tracking on/off and everything else.

Then again, some of the other evidence suggests Hakeem wasn't as valuable as the eye test would indicate. That Houston wasn't as lost without him and that distributing what he did across the team wasn't impossible. (Same can be said of Duncan.) We have such a tendency to de-emphasize teammates and coaching as years go on and only remember co-stars...of which, Hakeem basically had none.

I do know that in 1986, in his 2nd year, Olajuwon missed 14 games. Houston was -0.8 per contest in that time, which was 7.3 points per game worse than in the 68 games Hakeem played (+6.5 in those games), improving both on offense and defense.

I know that in 1991 -- a notable down year for Dream -- in the 26 games he missed Houston outscored it's opponents by 2.4 ppg (16-10 record). They were only slightly better with him (+4.0 overall) but while the defense improved about 3 points the offense regressed slightly.

I know that in 1992 -- another "bumpy" season -- in the 12 games he missed Houston was outscored by 10.8 points per. The DRtg was a dubious 117.2. With Dream, they were -0.2 (+10.6 difference).

I know that in 1995 when Hakeem missed 10 games, Houston was -4.3 without Olajuwon and +3.0 with him. Again, the offense was better, but the defense fell apart in his absence. (The DRtg was 116.8 without Hakeem.)

Those are big numbers. For those who didn't follow RPOY, I ran a bunch on older players. For some comparisons (the first number is net difference in lineup, the second is what that brought the team point differential to, or roughly SRS):
Walton 1978 +13.3 to 10.0
Walton 1977 +12.6 to 8.4
LeBron 08+10 +12.5 to 4.1 (average of 08 and 10)
Magic 1988 +10.9 to 7.2
West 1971 +10.9 to 4.5
Hakeem 1992 +10.6 to -0.2
Magic 1989 +10.4 to 7.8
King 1985 + 8.0 to -2.1
Shaq 00-01 +7.7 to 6.5
Kareem 1975 +7.7 to 1.7
Shaq 03 +7.6 to 3.7
Hakeem 1986 +7.3 to 6.5
Hakeem 1995 +7.3 to 3.0

West 1968 +6.4 to 7.8
Nash 2009 +6.3 to 2.5
Kareem 1978 +5.8 to
Garnett 2009 +5.4 to 9.2
Shaq 02 +5.1 to 8.1
West 1969 +4.9 to 5.4
Shaq 1996 +4.4 to 7.1
Pippen 1994 +4.2 to 3.6
Shaq 1998 +3.5 to 8.7
Pippen 1998 +3.1 to 8.6
Shaq 1997 +2.9 to 5.4
Hakeem 1991 +1.7 to 4.0
Shaq 04 +1.4 to 4.2

So in 1992, Hakeem's team was really not good, despite not many notable changes. Well, other than team turmoil and a coaching change, which is often brought back to Hakeem.

The next two bits of evidence offer equal confusion on Olajuwon, suggesting he could be GOAT-level or he could be a tier off the all-timers we're discussing.

Team Quality/Role

When Olajuwon shot well in the playoffs, his team actually fared worse. That suggests a team not reliant on his efficient scoring to win, often the mark of a good or balanced team. When he shot poorly, their record barely changed (.500).

Then again, when he shot the ball a lot (25+ FGAs), something he did frequently in the 90s, Houston fared very well (.727%). This suggests Iverson's Law of unipolar offense, where a player carrying massive offensive load is helping an otherwise flawed team, regardless of his shooting percentage. Interesting to note, then, that in Hakeem's legendary 95 run (only +0.9 TS%) the Rockets exploded for 115.2 points/100. They didn't win that title with defense, they won it with offense around Hakeem.

So, how "good" is Hakeem in a vacuum if we simply surround him with good shooters? (Drexler played very well in that run, I don't want to undersell his role as a slasher who could create his own.) Personally, I find that to be a difficult question to answer. History shows us two things:

(1) The best offenses are run by fairly ball-dominant guards/great creators for others
(2) The best post offenses are run from the high-post, again to create for others

It gets back to Wilt, where scoring 40 or 45 points in a game isn't really something lifting a team much if the wealth can fairly easily be redistributed with him out of the game. There's some of that in theory with Olajuwon over his career -- he can't just build great offenses even with good shooting pieces like Smith, Maxwell and Floyd -- but in 1995 what he was doing seems fairly awesome (on top of the obvious eye-candy). Although Houston did shoot 39.1% from 3, so some luck might be involved there. Even so, reverting to RS averages only lops off about 1.5 pts of efficiency per 100.

Raising his Offensive Game

Rightfully, this is what Hakeem is known for, and stands out fairly well among peers. First of all, by game score, he had a bad playoff game in the BR available data (91-97) about as infrequently as Michael Jordan (Shaq, btw, almost never). He had good games second only to Jordan (although well behind -- volume scoring for the Hollinger win).

In 15 elimination games from 1991 to 1997 Olajuwon averaged 27/12/4 3 blocks 3 TOV on 57% TS. Outside the box score, I'd say he was one of the better elimination game players ever.

Now, he was in the Western Conference in the late 80s/early 90s, so the defensive quality he faced wasn't that good, at least by DRtg. It's almost 4 points worse than Shaq, for comparison in prime years. But then again, Olajuwon totally cranks his game up in the playoffs in his best seasons.

Of the other modern all-timers, he increases his scoring, shooting, ORtg and WS/48 the most of anyone come playoff time. His numbers in those years are 27.6 ppg/57.7 TS% (Shaq's, btw, are 26.6/56.7 TS% -- although if we normalize by DRtg Shaq has the better efficiency at the same volume).

So where does that leave us? Well, with a guy who could be Iversoning (in the good way) an offense and is an amazing defender. Or, it could leave us with a guy who's offensive contributions can be replaced to a certain degree. I have to say, I find Houston's 1995 ORtg in the 22 game sample fascinating, since Hakeem's efficiency was barely above average.

Personally, I settle in the middle on Olajuwon, with his career ups and downs. But I do question if that's wrong. My instincts tell me if he had a better situation (eg San Antonio, 1998!!!) that we might regard Dream as a serious, serious GOAT candidate. Yes, even challenging Jordan.

Outside of free throw shooting, I have no strong criticisms of Shaq or Wilt in the playoffs. However, perhaps tied to the principle of missed free throws (which by my count cost Wilt titles in 1965, 1968, and 1969), there is some element of “missed opportunities” in their playoff histories. For me, Shaq’s defensive weaknesses made for a more limiting element in the postseason than Hakeem’s comparatively mediocre passing vision. I think OldSchool pointed out his impressive translation on three separate teams (also applicable to Wilt), which is a definite positive but is somewhat undercut by those teams being consistently good rosters tied to an all-time 2-guard. This is not prohibitive — Kareem famously only ever won with “the two best point guards ever” — but it does take away most of the adversity aspect. I struggle to envision players exceeding or even matching Hakeem’s results in his place, whereas I can more easily envision Hakeem matching or possibly even exceeding the success of others in their place; such is the benefit of regularly exceeding the realistic playoff expectations for your teams.

Exceeding expectations also happens to be the key distinction I see with Garnett compared to the rest of this group. While Garnett never disappointed me in the postseason, my process is not about checking for the fewest disappointments. ;) I have gestured to this before, but Garnett does not have the standouts of other players — those moments where he elevated and brought a team farther than its talent, like we see more consistently with Hakeem or Lebron. 1999 he does a good job of matching with Duncan and gives the Spurs one of their two losses. 2001 he has a respectable scoring performance and clearly outdoes Duncan on that front. 2003 you could argue he plays better than Shaq that series. 2004 he defeats an ostensibly strong Kings team (I am lower on that team’s realistic playoff ceiling but all the same) capped off with a legendary game 7, and then he looks like the best player on the court in the conference finals.
And you know, that is all nice, but compared to the bar of Hakeem or Shaq or Magic I think it falls short, and none of those are at the level of Wilt’s highs for me either. I trust Garnett to meet and on occasion slightly exceed expectations based on the roster around him, while also impacting the game at a superstar level well beyond that of true playoff risers like Reggie or Isiah. Which all puts him fringe top 10 for me, not #6.

Magic is in the next tier for me with Wilt and Shaq. I can be swayed to vote him at #7. I agree with most of Doc’s voting post on him, and I think he was on a GOAT trajectory ahead of what Jordan and Kareem had done at the same ages when he was forced into retirement. Thirteen postseasons played, same as 1993-2006 Shaq and 1960-73 Wilt. He has nearly the same regular season minutes and games played as 1993-2006 Shaq too. Nevertheless, the shall we say goliath in the room :-P was that Wilt played 44% more minutes in the regular season and an extra 140 games (nearly two full seasons worth), so then we come back to the question of how much better Magic (or Shaq) needs to be to overcome that prime deficit.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#6 » by One_and_Done » Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:40 pm

Vote: Shaq

Alternate: Hakeem

Nominate: Curry

Shaq had the best peak of these guys, with a surprising amount of longevity. Basically had about a 14 year prime. Overrated a little on D by some, and wouldn't have translated as well today, but still a positive on that end with his rim protection. His impact is just too huge for me not to have him here.

Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq. All the bad chemistry issues Shaq brings? Wilt brings them too, but worse. I won't be voting Wilt top 10. For me it's between Magic and Hakeem for my alternate vote. Curry nomination is clear though.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#7 » by penbeast0 » Sun Jul 16, 2023 2:45 pm

Vote: Wilt
Runner up vote: Shaq
Nominate: Steph Curry


Why Wilt? It seems to me that Wilt was far and away the most individually dominant player in the history of the league. He could play any center role and win any head to head matchup. With good coaches, that translated into great playoff success against everyone but Bill Russell. Again, outside of games against the Celtics, his playoff series winning percentage is over 80%.

He was the most dominant scorer ever when they needed him to score. Consistently going all game without a rest, he posted a 50 ppg season and others over 35 (in a faster paced league). And he did it consistently coming in 1st or 2nd in the league in shooting efficiency. His only weakness was his FT shooting. Shaq has similar strengths and weaknesses plus he played in the 21st century but while the overall league strength was much higher in the modern era, I'm not sure that's true of center. Wilt faced Russell in the playoffs, the greatest defensive force in NBA history, 10 times in his 14 years of play. The smaller league made the concentration of talent at the center position (the easiest to recognize) much greater with players like Walt Bellamy, Clyde Lovellette, and Walter Dukes, then Nate Thurmond and Zelmo Beaty, then Willis Reed, Wes Unseld, Elvin Hayes, Kareem, etc. such that roughly a 3rd of the centers he faced were generally HOF talents. Shaq played his best years in a league where David Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, etc. were retired or close to it and the generation of Dwight Howard, Amare, etc. had not yet come into being. His only true HOF competition in his 3 peat years among the 28 other teams were post-injury David Robinson (Duncan was playing mainly PF), Mourning, and Mutombo with 2000 with the next best being Vlade Divac, Theo Ratliff, Dale Davis, Antonio Davis, and Ben Wallace with each only making 1 All-Star team and only Wallace getting a 3rd team All-NBA look.

He was one of the great rebounders, leading the league 11 times in 15 years (helped by his ridiculous minute totals, but also while conserving energy to play those minutes). Again, an area where the other great centers left (Shaq and Hakeem) were not generally the best of their era.
He turned himself into a post passer who led the league in total assists once (though both Shaq and Hakeem developed good post passing games, they passed far less as they continued to focus mainly on scoring). His shotblocking, from the sample size we have, would probably make him the all-time leader in blocks if extrapolated out. He was coachable for good coaches (he had some bad ones), changing his entire game for Alex Hannum and Bill Sharman.

And, he was the greatest physical freak combining size and athleticism in the history of the game as well, with only Shaq coming close. I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't be one of the two best players in the game in any era, including today. He was that great an outlier.

The arguments against him are his losses to Russell and the Celtics. Since I have Russell as my GOAT, that's a factor. If you think the Celtics were loaded with talent every year, then that mitigates as well. But either way, it's a real issue. Again, his record v. everyone else in the playoffs stacks up as better than LeBron, Jordan, Kareem, Duncan, or anyone not named Bill Russell. The other knock is that his great scoring didn't translate into great team Ortg. Again, a very legit criticism and the reason I haven't voted for him higher. Bad coaches are a partial explanation; they saw his individual dominance and just parked him in the post and told the team to throw everything in to him in the half court. Modern analytics have shown this to be an inefficient model for a team even when the individual numbers suggest it to be correct. Normally I'm a huge advocate for looking at team results to show how great an individual is, but I just can't get away from Wilt's ability to dominate like few others ever.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm not sure who to go with next. Plus-minus type impact stats love Garnett, Hakeem stepped up his scoring in the playoffs in terms of both efficiency and volume and won two titles with casts the rough equivalent of Wilt's Warrior teams, Magic led great offenses year in and year out, albeit with some of the most stacked teams in NBA history around him (truly stacked offensively, unlike the hit and miss offensive talent of the defensively focused Russell Celtics). With Mikan and Curry not nominated yet, those are probably the main 3 guys I am thinking about other than my vote. That said, I will probably go with Shaq for my runner up vote. His TS numbers are consistently stronger than Hakeem offensively (as Hakeem's defense is stronger than Shaq's) and his gravity and unstoppability (not a real word) were almost as unreal as Wilt's.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My nomination is Curry. Mikan probably should be in first but he isn't going to get support at this level and Curry will generate better discussion. I may switch back but right now, I want to throw in the guys like Magic last round or Curry this round that I think will bring out the interesting arguments.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#8 » by eminence » Sun Jul 16, 2023 3:00 pm

Not decided yet, but I am currently leaning towards nominating Mikan. Last clear king of his own era, and Bird/Curry are really the only other two who have claims for any sort of sustained best player crown (not that they're the strongest claims, but that they exist at all - then we get into the clear 2nd fiddle guys with better longevity like Oscar/West/Kobe/Dirk/Malonex2/DrJ).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#9 » by 70sFan » Sun Jul 16, 2023 3:07 pm

One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

Of all players in NBA history, Wilt is probably the least likely to be "thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq" and that's your criticism of him?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#10 » by eminence » Sun Jul 16, 2023 3:15 pm

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

Of all players in NBA history, Wilt is probably the least likely to be "thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq" and that's your criticism of him?


The Ostertag disrespect.

But I'm with 70s here, Wilt obviously wouldn't be rag-dolled by any human in history. Overall that's too strong of era-adjustment technique for my tastes.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#11 » by 70sFan » Sun Jul 16, 2023 3:32 pm

eminence wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

Of all players in NBA history, Wilt is probably the least likely to be "thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq" and that's your criticism of him?


The Ostertag disrespect.

But I'm with 70s here, Wilt obviously wouldn't be rag-dolled by any human in history. Overall that's too strong of era-adjustment technique for my tastes.

The PC Board is not ready for Greg inside top 10 yet :wink:
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#12 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jul 16, 2023 4:50 pm

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

Of all players in NBA history, Wilt is probably the least likely to be "thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq" and that's your criticism of him?


Yeah, a case can be made for Shaq without resorting to this type of *overt hyperbole* [*which is putting it nicely]. Certainly not true of later career Wilt, at the very least.

This is a man who is 7'1.25", entered the league at ~260 lbs, but exited the league closer to 315 lbs (with a standing reach between 9'6" and 9'7", fwiw), who is said to have been stronger than Arnold Schwarzeneggar [by Arnold himself], who is stated (again by Arnold, who witnessed it) to bench-press 500+ lbs, who could lift a normal sized human male [maybe ~160 lbs] like this (notice the minimal effort or torquing of back/legs to do it; notice the extended right arm when he turns him toward the crowd and controlled return to original position, with no trembling or show that it's difficult):



......and who had sufficient leg strength to propell that 310+ lbs about 3' into the air during his later years in L.A. (could still touch as high as 12'6" at that point in his career). To say nothing of all the other accounts of his strength by his contemporaries.

I'm sorry, that man is not being "thrown around like a rag doll" by any human who has yet played in the NBA.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#13 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jul 16, 2023 5:12 pm

Have not had the tine to participate too much as career and studies have really ate my time

But i feel like i gotta go hakeem here for #6

His player profile is one that in my opinion would translate incresibly well across every era. Having the strenght and grid needed to bang in the post and boards and being a goat-ish post up defender....as well as being one of the more impressively mobile defensive bigs this side of kevin garnett. That best of both worlds ability nay make him the most inpressive and complete defensive talent in the post-russel world

His longevity sometimes held against him i dont see as a big knock off. Like yeah i would give longevity advantge to wilt (also due to minutes played*) but i dont think hakeem loses to magic, bird, shaq here

He may have been the world most impactful player as early as 1986 in my view. Lack of healthy or good teams from 87-92 held back his career perception but what he did in the mid 90's was somethingh he showed the ability to pull off from sophomore year

I am noy a huge fan of the ceiling vs floor false dichotomy but since a lot of discussion always comes down to it i think he stacks up really well to anyone there. His defensive profile allows him to "ceiling raise" any offensively talented team he may be put on, whereas his defense and resilient scoring let hin floor raise to a level short of no one this side of lebron james

His profile is incresibly similar in lots of unexpected ways to duncan who was just voted in with arguably a better ability to play defense in modern era (while losing some on intangibles amd longevity)

Lot haa been said about his issues with team management with the rockets, but i still think his feud was more justified, and his attitude on the field more proffesional than someone like shaq and shares witj others like duncan being an all time playoffs raiser while being a underated regular season performer

Imo a goat level talent who may have beat jordan as best player of their era if his team luck was as good as mike's (no disrespect to jordan, i just think hakeem was that good).

My 7th likely comes down to magic vs wilt vs shaq with no strong preferences

Wilt i got some doubt cause his era relative longevity and minutes advantage is pretty wild albeit magic may be the best one in the modern game and i am unsure if i should punish his lack of longevity considering the circunstances (while also not wanting to reward him for seasons he didnt play)

If magic played a little more i may feel confident in him above wilt whose impact signals sometimes are all over the place, combining goat level runs like the 67 sixers with more questionable results when adjusting his game to teams like the 69 lakers

Wilt feels like someone who failed to put it all together in no small part his own fault (i have read some people tracked his granny free throwyps as being eay better than hia regular ones which is damning on him if true for example) but his regular output + peak + longevity and minutes do enough for me here

Why not shaq at 7? Well, i have as big or bigger doubts on his attitude as wity wilt for slightly different reasons, i am not impressed with his longevity and i am a bit less impressed om his playoffs play and specially defense than most. I think he and wilt share some similarities (not so much in play style) but wilt talent and peak impress me a bit more and the minutes/ era longevity edge does it for me

Shaq has on his side not having anythingh so perplexing as wilt leaving the 65 warriors without drop off or coming to 69 lakers amd barely improvimg themf so maybe his impact was more consistemt amd less "need the planets to line up" than wilt was....i am open either way

Edit: edited my vote, not sure on my second vote yet as magic has a extremely compelling case here.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#14 » by Samurai » Sun Jul 16, 2023 5:53 pm

Repeating my vote from the previous round:

Vote for #6: Wilt Chamberlain
I think Wilt's offense tends to get overrated due to his crazy scoring numbers early in his career and his defense tends to get underrated, largely because he was playing at the same time as (and thus often compared to) Bill Russell. His case is clearly supported by the numbers: 7 scoring titles, 11 rebounding titles, 8 Win Share titles, and he thus far remains the only center to lead the league in assists. While everyone knows about his 100 point game and averaging over 50 ppg in a season, I think I'm actually impressed by his averaging over 48 minutes/game in a season. Heck, some fans get restless just sitting and watching a game for the full 48 minutes! And since Wilt was attempting over 39 shots and grabbing 25+ rebounds per game, he was doing a lot more than just sitting and watching the game for the full 48 minutes. I don't believe in time machines so I won't even speculate on how he would do if he jumped in a magic DeLorean in his prime and showed up in the NBA today. But based on what he accomplished in his own time, he gets my vote.

Nominate: Larry Bird
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#15 » by falcolombardi » Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:41 pm

On further thoughts i am not as sure above voting wilt over magic anymore...the difference in longevity may be made up by magic seemingly more consistent impact and less team leadership/attitude issues (albeit they still did exist as his feuds with management in early 80's showed)

I think i wony have a second place vote for now as i think further about magic vs wilt (and maybe garnett or shaq?)
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#16 » by ijspeelman » Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:57 pm

I have no clue what I want to do with this spot.

I’ll rank each player in two tiers (best first), but the gap is small and can still see someone falling or rising with more research.

Tier 1:
Hakeem and Garnett

Tier 2:
Wilt, Shaq, and Magic

I still have doubts w Wilt even w all the good evidence contesting some of those doubts. His offense still puts me off more than it probably should.

I think Hakeem and Garnett are insanely good two way guys who combined generational defense with near-generational offense. Hakeem worked best as the “number one guy” and Garnett probably always needed to be a “number two guy”, but never got that opportunity with TWolves. Both of them are impeccable defenders. I think I like Garnett’s help defense a lot more.

Magic’s and Shaq’s defense throws me here as I’ve said.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#17 » by OhayoKD » Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:07 pm

ijspeelman wrote:I have no clue what I want to do with this spot.

I’ll rank each player in two tiers (best first), but the gap is small and can still see someone falling or rising with more research.

Tier 1:
Hakeem and Garnett

Tier 2:
Wilt, Shaq, and Magic

I still have doubts w Wilt even w all the good evidence contesting some of those doubts. His offense still puts me off more than it probably should.

I think Hakeem and Garnett are insanely good two way guys who combined generational defense with near-generational offense. Hakeem worked best as the “number one guy” and Garnett probably always needed to be a “number two guy”, but never got that opportunity with TWolves. Both of them are impeccable defenders. I think I like Garnett’s help defense a lot more.

Magic’s and Shaq’s defense throws me here as I’ve said.

I will say, if you look at srs-splits(which alot of people here seem to prefer over strict era-relatvitism) Wilt's overall is kind of underwhelming. +9 on a very good sixers team is great but not really he goat-level outcome one might want given the help(+4 with when he left) and whether you go by srs or CORP 69 is pretty inexcusable. Best scoring team Wilt beat was the +7.25 celtics with russell injured. Hakeem beat a similar team(by srs anyway) with much weaker help in 86.

KG has a great rs impact porfolio and Hakeem sees the biggest team-wide playoff jumps(corresponding with strong box-increases)of maybe any person who might be voted in the top 10 here besides maybe Lebron(especially post 2010), so I'd say at least emperically your tier 1 is pretty easy to justify
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#18 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:36 pm

I think to have Hakeem as 6th all time you have to believe one of these things:

a) Hakeem in late 80s and early 90s was underrated at the time and playing at a top 7-8 all time level, in Magic and Bird, not Barkley and Malone class who were superstars but on lower tier. Hakeem's MVP votes at the time were more like the latter, but MVP vote is biased towards winning teams and Hakeem was stuck with a bad team.

b) Hakeem in 93-95 was playing at a greater level than 6th-7th all time and fringing on Kareem/Jordan/Lebron level stuff, however only for a few years. Therefore this makes up for not being top 10 all time level for the other 7-8 years of his prime.

If 93-95 Hakeem is playing at a 6th or 7th all time type of level, and late 80s he is great but in the 2nd tier of stars like Barkley/Malone, then he would not be the 6th best player of all time, because he only has 3 years at that level, and like 7-8 years at a lower level. On the last peak project Moses finished 25th, AD 26th, Barkley 31st, Malone 32nd, Ewing 33rd. These are really good seasons so comparing 80s Hakeem's impact to them isn't that big of an insult but it would be enough to probably take him out of contention for 6th all time unless you were extremely high on peak Hakeem.

So let's dig into 80s Hakeem. On paper, it looks a lot like prime Duncan. Top 3 all time D, and skilled mid 20s volume scoring, post play on decent efficiency isn't the best offense, but for a 2 way big it's fine, there are lots of offensive players I like more than Duncan too. However, to note, offensive Win Shares is more friendly to Duncan than Hakeem. Duncan is 23rd all time in NBA career OWS, Hakeem is 66th. Hakeem is below some dudes like Melo and LMA and soon to be Derozan in career OWS who's midrange volume scoring games are supposed to not translate to that stat at all. The main reason is that OWS really doesn't like 80s and early 90s Hakeem. 89 and 90 Hakeem is putting up 24-25ppg on .54-.55 TS% and playing 82 games, seems credible offensively even if not 93/94 level. He finishes 40th and 93rd in OWS despite this. In comparison Duncan in 00 and 01, kind of similarly below 02 and 03 (he leads the league in OWS in 02), is 12th in OWS (74 games) in 00 and 23rd in 01. Duncan also makes top 20 OWS in 99, 07 and 10, while Hakeem doesn't outside of 93 and 94.

Why does Duncan have OWS advantage over Hakeem? The difference is subtle and I believe has to do with passing. Hakeem from 85-96 put up these assists per 100: 1.8, 2.6, 3.8, 2.7, 2.3, 3.6, 3.1, 3.0, 4.6, 4.4, 4.6, 4.7. Duncan from 98-09 put up 3.8, 3.3, 4.3, 4.1, 4.9, 5.3, 4.5, 4.4, 4.9, 5.4, 4.4, 5.7. Hakeem gets it together to Duncan ish level from 93-96 as a passer, however the numbers suggest on paper earlier Hakeem was plausibly a bit of a black hole. In 89 Hakeem was 9th for players on his team with 500 mp+ in Ast%, in 90 7th. In 00 Duncan was 4th using same exercise, in 01 5th.

Could that be blamed all on teammates and a poor organization? Maybe. Hakeem certainly has the moves in late 80s and early 90s and some big playoff games in SSS, but league history is full of guys that had fancy moves that slowed the offense down just to take a low % turnaround jumpshot, so does Hakeem having the moves from the start of his career guarantee anything? It's at least believable to me he is flawed enough on offense before 93 to make him a secondary superstar player or that people weren't crazy at the time to not be sure he's better than a player like late 80s Barkley who is by far better on offense to make up for canyon gap on defense.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#19 » by One_and_Done » Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:37 pm

Perhaps rag doll is overstating it, but Shaq played with a combination of force and dexterity that would have been far too much for Wilt to handle. Wilt didn't play with anything like the power Shaq did.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#20 » by AEnigma » Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:32 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:So let's dig into 80s Hakeem. On paper, it looks a lot like prime Duncan. Top 3 all time D, and skilled mid 20s volume scoring, post play on decent efficiency isn't the best offense, but for a 2 way big it's fine, there are lots of offensive players I like more than Duncan too. However, to note, offensive Win Shares is more friendly to Duncan than Hakeem. Duncan is 23rd all time in NBA career OWS, Hakeem is 66th. Hakeem is below some dudes like Melo and LMA and soon to be Derozan in career OWS who's midrange volume scoring games are supposed to not translate to that stat at all. The main reason is that OWS really doesn't like 80s and early 90s Hakeem. 89 and 90 Hakeem is putting up 24-25ppg on .54-.55 TS% and playing 82 games, seems credible offensively even if not 93/94 level. He finishes 40th and 93rd in OWS despite this. In comparison Duncan in 00 and 01, kind of similarly below 02 and 03 (he leads the league in OWS in 02), is 12th in OWS (74 games) in 00 and 23rd in 01. Duncan also makes top 20 OWS in 99, 07 and 10, while Hakeem doesn't outside of 93 and 94.



It's at least believable to me he is flawed enough on offense before 93 to make him a secondary superstar player or that people weren't crazy at the time to not be sure he's better than a player like late 80s Barkley who is by far better on offense to make up for canyon gap on defense.

Okay, this keeps popping up, so it is probably time to ask: why do we keep using these metrics to make our points.

I am serious, what is the justification apart from a vague “well it seems to identify good players” that applies to approaches as basic as Bill Simmons’s “add together points + rebounds + assists”. Win shares in particular stuns me because its backbone is tied to Dean Oliver’s nearly twenty-year-old “individual offensive / defensive rating,” but it is not like most modern raw box composites tell us that much more. Hakeem’s PIPM wins added is 240, compared to Shaq’s 228 and Barkley’s 182; does that assuage your concerns?

To your more specific point: Tim Duncan is in now, so even if he had better offence, what does that matter? Hakeem’s career ratio of points to assists is 8.7 to 1; Wilt’s is 6.84 to 1, and Shaq’s is 9.5 to 1, so is Shaq a hard out now?

You can say you think players would do better in place of others without needing to point to some artificial catch-all number as reasoning. No one here is singing the praises of young Hakeem’s passing. If you think that hurt his teams more than whatever defensive advantage he has over everyone, both in this comparison and at the time of his own league, then we can have that discussion, but I do not see what is advanced by citing win shares (or whatever). They are just disconnected formulas — some of which are now two decades old.
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