RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Hakeem Olajuwon)

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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#181 » by 70sFan » Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:46 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
70sFan wrote:
ceoofkobefans wrote:Other than maybe Kobe and curry he has without a doubt the most gravity in league history which helped him create a good amount of shots for teammates as a center.

Do you have any evidences to believe that these three have more gravity than someone like Kareem, Wilt or LeBron for example?


There’s of course no way to measure that in a way that would create concrete “evidence.” But, at least with Steph, we can watch the games and see it. All these great players have teams collapse on them when they’re in positions where they are super dangerous to score. But there’s a few things that IMO make the effect Steph exerts substantially better:

1. The thing with Steph is that the positions where he’s super dangerous to score are super far from the basket, which means that his gravity creates more space (i.e. because opponents are pulled even further away from Steph’s teammates). So, even if opponents are only pulled as close to him as they are to some other all-time great, that “gravity” creates more space. For instance, a double team 10 feet from the three point line creates more space for teammates than a double team 12 feet from the basket does.

2. Relatedly, there’s a difference in *where* the space Steph creates is located on the floor. When your gravity is exerted far from the basket, you’re naturally pulling opponents *away* from the basket. This is in contrast to gravity exerted by most players (including the ones listed) whose gravity generally pulls opponents *towards* the basket. And pulling opponents away from the basket is generally better. Why? Well, pulling opponents away from the basket creates space closer to the basket, while pulling opponents towards the basket creates space away from the basket. Therefore, gravity like Steph’s is more likely to create an open shot near the basket, while other types of gravity are more likely to create an open outside shot. And shots near the basket are the most efficient shots in basketball, so this is better. I provided evidence of this effect in prior threads, in which I detailed how Steph being on the floor increases his teammates’ percent of FGA’s at the rim in a completely outlier manner, even as compared to guys like LeBron. This is because he’s creating space in a different way that is more likely to manufacture shots at the rim.

3. Another aspect of this is the frequency with which one is able to get in positions that exert gravity. Steph exerts gravity in the most basic of situations. He can just have the ball 5-10 feet behind the three point line and get a screen from a teammate, and he’ll get doubled off the screen. Or he’ll create space just by running around off the ball behind the three point line. Teams do try to take some potshots at him as he runs around screens, to try to slow him down, but overall it’s very hard to actually prevent him from being a position to exert his gravity, because it’s very hard to prevent someone from being in a position to receive the ball anywhere within several feet from the three-point line or from running a pick and roll behind the three-point line. In contrast, it’s harder for other players to get in a position to exert their gravity. For instance, if Kareem gets the ball 2 feet from the basket, he will definitely exert a lot of gravity. But he has to genuinely work really hard to get position like that—it’s not something he can easily do basically every time down floor. And once he’s in that position, it requires a good entry pass from a teammate—which is easier to do with someone with Kareem’s catch radius, but still can get legitimately dicey and potentially wreck the positioning. Similarly, with someone like LeBron, who exerts gravity mostly when the defense collapses on his drives, this requires LeBron to beat his man and get near the basket—something he is certainly very capable of doing, but which is still much further from automatic than Steph being able to exert his gravity.

So I think Steph’s gravity is substantially superior to these guys’. Steph’s gravity creates more space, creates space in better parts of the floor, and can be more consistently exerted.

To be honest, I was interested more in Shaq in this case, because that's who ceoofkobefans talked about. We will come back to Curry later.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#182 » by lessthanjake » Tue Jul 18, 2023 8:56 pm

For reference for people on Hakeem’s RAPM data in the play-by-play era, since there’s been a comparison of Hakeem’s RAPM to other players at a similar age, we actually have a much better comparison point for this, which does not require comparing RAPM values across different seasons (which may be scaled a bit differently).

Specifically, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem are the same age (and also are relatively similar players), and both played to a late age. So we can directly compare how they played in their older years in the exact same seasons. And, until we get to the very very old-age seasons that basically don’t matter since neither player is doing much at all, Patrick Ewing grades out as decidedly superior to Hakeem in RAPM.

JE RAPM: Patrick Ewing vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

1996-1997 (age 34):
Patrick Ewing: 4.82
Hakeem Olajuwon: 3.37

1997-1998 (age 35):
Patrick Ewing: 4.36
Hakeem Olajuwon: 3.11

1998-1999 (age 36):
Patrick Ewing: 4.07
Hakeem Olajuwon: 2.62

1999-2000 (age 37):
Patrick Ewing: 3.56
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1.56

2000-2001 (age 38):
Hakeem Olajuwon: 0.5
Patrick Ewing: -1.9

2001-2002 (age 39):
Hakeem Olajuwon: -0.51
Patrick Ewing: -2.87

As I said, until you get to age 38-39 where both of them are providing essentially no positive value, Patrick Ewing grades out as superior to Hakeem every single season, and it’s not close. There’s honestly just very little to be all that impressed by in terms of impact data for Hakeem.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#183 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:05 pm

One_and_Done wrote:Once you open the context floodgates with even even a smattering of era adjustment/time-machining, then it is logically inconsistent to not be doing it full hog. We should do our best to apply all the context. To me, that context says Mikan and Cousy would be G-leaguers today, or bench players at best. They will never get my vote on this list.


I would say that I found it impossible to be consistent when I was focused on comparing them primarily based on how they'd do in a modern league.

Certainly the easiest way to be consistent is to focus purely on era dominance, and if I were doing that here, Mikan would already be getting my vote.

I suppose you could say I'm doing a middle ground degree-of-difficulty adjustment that doesn't deal with the shifts to the strategy of the game now that the 3-pointer defines basketball as it does, in part because actually dealing with that would at times lead to guys who had less accomplished careers being ranked higher than contemporaries who accomplished more.

Now, you might say that's well and good but that a truly honest approach to this would relegate Mikan & Cousy to G-leaguers...but I think that exaggerates things particularly with regard to Mikan. With Cousy I think it's more complicated because his approach for much of his career was starkly sub-optimal, and if he played with that same approach today, he wouldn't make the league...but it's not just possible but likely that he'd play differently if he didn't win constantly playing the way he did.

Incidentally, I find the story of his time as a coach to be both amusing and heart-breaking. I think quite clearly that he never understood how much he was being carried by the Celtic defense while he played in those dynastic years, and I think his struggles as a coach probably made him realize that some of what he thought he knew about how effective he was, wasn't true.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#184 » by eminence » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:11 pm

AEnigma wrote:I was indifferent to you correcting ShaqAttak until you started trying to undermine the other wins. Were the Blazers some stout team? No, but they did lose, and it was not just because their real SRS was more like 2.5 than 2.7. Nor was there any particular “magic” in beating the Kings and Nuggets. Those were series they should have won based on their full strength SRS, and they did.

Anyway, I do not think the 1990/91 Rockets are a 2004-level cast at all. Where is the Sam Cassell equivalent? 1986 without Lucas seems like the most comparable situation there. And I am not saying that to denigrate Garnett, because what he did with that abysmal 2003 cast is more impressive as far as first round exits go, but if we are asking who could win in the playoffs with less, I would not say anything suggests that edges Garnett.


Cassell started better than anybody else on the Rockets in the RS those years (out by the time the Wolves actually go down), but a #2 does not a cast make. I'd take the whole rest of the Rockets starting lineup over Sprewell/Hassell/Johnson (would've taken Wally too, but Flip disagreed).
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#185 » by AEnigma » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:31 pm

A #2 does not make a cast, but it does have a major impact on the ceiling and floor of the team in the absence of good ones. Hassell was bad, agreed. Johnson was a fake starter; Hoiberg was fine, albeit uninspiring. Sprewell I am sure must have been frustrating for fans of his teams, but in aggregate he was an effective player. The Wolves probably were worse #3 and down (and more confidently #4 down, #5 down, #6 down…), but 2004 Cassell was the exact type of player those Rockets teams desperately needed, and I would not undersell the effect of having a top five point guard to drive a team with or without a superstar. To the point that having Cassell next to him was quite possibly the difference between Garnett pulling off a 1986 Finals run of his own and being yet another first round exit.

Again, not denigrating Garnett here. 1985-92 Hakeem did not have a regular season carry equivalent to 2003 Garnett. That is one of the most unlikely 50-win teams I have ever seen. But Garnett never made a run without a strong co-star, so attacking Hakeem for similarly situated first round losses strikes an odd note.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#186 » by One_and_Done » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:32 pm

As I expected, this is where it's finally going to start coming down to preferences. With less than 10 hours to go I have the vote as Hakeem 7, Wilt 5, Shaq 4, KG 1, with Curry in front for nominaton.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#187 » by ShaqAttac » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:37 pm

notifications goin crazy
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#188 » by DraymondGold » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:37 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Hmm, missed this but uh...
DraymondGold wrote:
Bklynborn682 wrote:
Note: different sources approximate possessions in different ways, so you may get slight differences depending on the source. OhayoKD and Enigma once got very mad that I used Basketball Reference for my possession data rather than asking Statmuse (e.g. asking "How many possessions did hakeem play in 1997?" to statmuse, then using (total Possessions)/(100) as my conversion factor).

Yeah, I think you've misremembered how things unfolded. Things started here:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2257921&p=104349742&#p104349742
Spoiler:
Possibility 4: Enigma just lied. They lied about manually tracking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand. They got the numbers from some website or made them up and lied about manually tracking. If it’s from a website, they haven’t as of yet provided that website so we’re unable to cross-reference that website with PBPStats to see where the disagreement lies.

Think this mostly covers what happened:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104349742#p104349742
Can't quote since the thread was locked but here's the
Spoiler:
aenigma wrote:No, because me calculating it by hand is not a source. You do not need statmuse specifically; you can do the same thing more slowly on stats.nba.com.

...

Because when I am trying to replicate a point of data, my first thought is to make sure that the process… replicates the data. A novel thought I am sure to someone who has made it increasingly apparent they just wants to twist data to suit their priors regardless of logical accuracy.

Ben (approximately) gave us Lebron’s 2016-21 on/off per 48 minutes. On that graph, eyeball says it is a bit higher than 18 (you can draw a line clearly placing the dot higher). But when I do the basketball-reference method, I end up with 17.87. And then pbpstats seemingly has lower net rating assessments than basketball-reference. However, when I do the point differential method? +18.18 per 48 minutes. :-?

Is it biased toward Lebron? Well, we can do the same thing with Robinson. His point on the graph looks like 25 (or at least high 24). The bbr method gives 23.9. However, using point differentials gives +25.13. There again, much closer correspondence.

Now, it is possible those graphs are meaningless and poorly placed. Maybe the dots were thrown randomly and the scales are not correct. But if so, that probably raises some questions about all the eyeball scales you used for Jordan…

TLDR: You used per possessions for something countable that was then turned into a per minute stat, and when more accurate data was provided(for different reasons, but let's boil it down to "using the same process" for lebron and jordan), you assumed aenigma was claiming to have film-tracked it and made assumptions about their process, and threw in the possiblity they were lying before trying to clarify.
I predictably disagree with this interpretation. I don’t think we should derail this thread re-debating an old thread that turned toxic and got closed.

But since you've provided your perspective on that thread...
and since you, Enigma, and ShaqAttak have all accused me of lying in that old post at various points in time (back in that thread, in that other Jordan thread back in the day, in the General Board thread a few days back,)
... It’s worth recapping my interpretation of events just this once, if only to prevent others in this thread who weren't there from thinking that I intentionally lie about numbers (which I pretty obviously do not :crazy: ):
Spoiler:
Link: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104317081#p104317081
Post 180, DraymondGold: We have Jordan’s on/off in per 48 minutes while we have LeBron’s in per 100 possessions. We need to adjust LeBron’s units so it’s apples to apples. I take LeBron’s on/off from Source A (PBPstats, the traditional source for on/off), I get the unit conversion factor from Source B (BasketballReference, a respectable source for possession data), and here are the results for LeBron. Here are full sources and description of methodology.
Post 189, AEnigma, to me: “Yeah some of these numbers are not correct.” and “This is disingenuous” and “it was apparently still necessary to further manipulate the data to benefit Jordan.” Here are new on/off per 48 calculations for LeBron (which disagree with DraymondGold’s). [no source or methodology provided]
Post 191, OhayoKD: Here are my on/off per 48 calculations for LeBron (which disagree with DraymondGold and AEnigma’s). [no source or methodology provided]

Post 193, DraymondGold A: AEnigma, Could you provide a source or methodology? These look inconsistent with the sources I have.
Post 195, AEnigma, to me: “Sad when people try to double down on incorrect numbers”… “I said what I did here: replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes). I am curious what you think is done when people hand-track plus/minus. There is no “source”, you do the work yourself.”
Post 196, AEnigma B: Taking per 100 possessions data and converting to per 48 minutes data “is not the same process as what was done for Jordan.”
OhayoKD: *no reply on sources or methodology*

Post 216, DraymondGold: AEnigma claimed they “replicated the process used for Jordan’s on/off” for LeBron, which they said was “hand-tracking plus/minus” where there is “no source, you do the work yourself”. This would require “hand-tracked 253 LeBron games or over 200+ hours worth of footage, all on their own, without providing any proof of work.” The numbers Enigma gets are mathematically inconsistent with a trusted source. They could have made a variety of honest mistakes in their calculation that explain the discrepancy with official sources, but one of them is that “Enigma just lied… about manually racking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand.” “OhayoKD, your numbers disagree with both mine and AEnigma’s. Can you please provide a source for yours so we can compare?”

Post 219, OhayoKD: Provides source and methodology (and resorts to personal attacks towards me: “And whether or not you intentionally **** up the math here, consistently **** up, and then doubling down when you have **** up will naturally lead to some readers thinking the **** ups might be intentional.”)

Post 222, Enigma: Suddenly provides a source “you can do the same thing more slowly on stats.nba.com.” Says that my methodology doesn’t perfectly replicate the previous data

*for context, I later reply that the difference in replicating previous data is from 1) rounding error (my numbers were accurate to the ~1st decimal place,) and 2) because we’re averaging in different ways (you can average each year equally vs average by weighting each year by minutes played).* At this point, the thread devolved pretty quickly. Enigma said to me “when you behave like a child and start calling everyone liars” , you accused me of “actually lying”, I left the thread. The thread was closed a few pages later.

For those in the past who genuinely believe that I was genuinely dishonest about numbers and Enigma wasn’t I’d like to reiterate:
I: *provided sources and methodology for all my work in my very first post* (post 180)
Enigma: *didn’t provide source*, said they were “replicating the process used for Jordan’s”, that Jordan’s numbers were “done when people hand-track plus/minus”, that “There is no “source”, you do the work yourself.” (post 189)… then they suddenly said they didn’t do the work of hand-tracking themselves, and that they used the source “stats.nba.com” (post 195)

As I said in that thread, I’m not in the habit accusing others of lying. Other mishaps and miscommunications could have explained the discrepancy in values. If you're generous to Enigma, you could argue that they somehow thought using "stats.nba.com” was the same as using "no source", or that looking up numbers on stats.nba.com was somehow the same as "replicating the process used for Jordan's" (when Jordan's was clearly tracked by hand)...

But if you’re going to accuse anyone of lying, you’d think it would be the person who claimed that “there is no ‘source’” for their data, that they “did the work [themselves]” which they said meant “hand-track[ing] plus/minus data”… and then turned out to be using stats.nba.com as their source. Rather than the person who provided sources and methodology from the beginning.
That's really the last I want to dwell on that thread. The players we were discussing have already been voted in, and that thread turned toxic while hopefully this one does not. My goal in replying to this post and bringing that thread back up is to prevent newer people from thinking I'm somehow dishonest (despite citing sources and detailing methodology for basically every post in that old thread).

......

Anyway, to tie it back to the relevant thread:
lessthanjake wrote:For reference for people on Hakeem’s RAPM data in the play-by-play era, since there’s been a comparison of Hakeem’s RAPM to other players at a similar age, we actually have a much better comparison point for this, which does not require comparing RAPM values across different seasons (which may be scaled a bit differently).

Specifically, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem are the same age (and also are relatively similar players), and both played to a late age. So we can directly compare how they played in their older years in the exact same seasons. And, until we get to the very very old-age seasons that basically don’t matter since neither player is doing much at all, Patrick Ewing grades out as decidedly superior to Hakeem in RAPM.

JE RAPM: Patrick Ewing vs. Hakeem Olajuwon

1996-1997 (age 34):
Patrick Ewing: 4.82
Hakeem Olajuwon: 3.37

1997-1998 (age 35):
Patrick Ewing: 4.36
Hakeem Olajuwon: 3.11

1998-1999 (age 36):
Patrick Ewing: 4.07
Hakeem Olajuwon: 2.62

1999-2000 (age 37):
Patrick Ewing: 3.56
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1.56

2000-2001 (age 38):
Hakeem Olajuwon: 0.5
Patrick Ewing: -1.9

2001-2002 (age 39):
Hakeem Olajuwon: -0.51
Patrick Ewing: -2.87

As I said, until you get to age 38-39 where both of them are providing essentially no positive value, Patrick Ewing grades out as superior to Hakeem every single season, and it’s not close. There’s honestly just very little to be all that impressed by in terms of impact data for Hakeem.
Wow, I hadn't noticed that before! :o Do you have any sense on what sort of on-court differences could explain this? These were the years where Hakeem was supposedly a better passer (though certainly post peak). Did Ewing's defense age better than Hakeem's? If their defensive value was similar, were other parts of Ewing's offense easier to mesh around for his teammates?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#189 » by ShaqAttac » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:43 pm

lessthanjake wrote:For reference for people on Hakeem’s RAPM data in the play-by-play era, since there’s been a comparison of Hakeem’s RAPM to other players at a similar age, we actually have a much better comparison point for this, which does not require comparing RAPM values across different seasons (which may be scaled a bit differently).

Specifically, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem are the same age (and also are relatively similar players), and both played to a late age. So we can directly compare how they played in their older years in the exact same seasons. And, until we get to the very very old-age seasons that basically don’t matter since neither player is doing much at all, Patrick Ewing grades out as decidedly superior to Hakeem in RAPM.

JE RAPM: Patrick Ewing vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
As I said, until you get to age 38-39 where both of them are providing essentially no positive value, Patrick Ewing grades out as superior to Hakeem every single season, and it’s not close. There’s honestly just very little to be all that impressed by in terms of impact data for Hakeem.

what does ewing got to do with shaq? i dont see how this comp matters unless ur plannin to vote for patrick

hakeem looks good in most of the impact i been seeing. u just really like wowyrr for some reason
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#190 » by eminence » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:46 pm

Doc - I appreciate the note on how it’s hard to criticize guys not changing approach when we see them constantly winning, it’s something I forget sometimes with Cousy.

On Mikan and rules changes - I have a tough time critiquing him too harshly for fading a bit with the lane widening. It’s a fairly unique situation.

I imagine most players could be significantly hampered if the league decided to make major rules changes specifically targeted at slowing them down. This was by far the most prominent of those situations I can think of.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#191 » by homecourtloss » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:47 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
I've been using *injured* as a shorthand for missed games (which could be due to other reasons like suspensions, sickness, mid-career retirement before coming back, etc... just having one word is a lot easier than having to spell out every reason).

Makes sense but if we write that out then it has to be consistent for all teams.

DraymondGold wrote:For 2016: Curry was clearly injured. He missed 6 games & wasn't able to start in 7 games, so that will decrease the 2016 Warriors' Playoff SRS compared to what it would have been when healthy. When he came back, he was still playing through injury. It's blatantly obvious in the stats if you compare Curry's/team stats to any other point in 2016 or any of the neighboring years. You can also see it on film at times, where his speed isn't what it was that year when healthy and where is shooting rhythm wasn't what it was.


Might not be at his best but he did wind up playing every game after he came back and heavy minutes (36 minutes per game with lessened minutes in 4 different blowouts). If we count this as an injury, especially if the player plays in every game of the series, then there are other players who have been injured or might have been and then were affected when they came back but are not listed as injured.

Also, he had some good games before the Finals and maybe not up to where he was in the regular season, but it was still 29/6/7/2 on 62% TS in the 9 games before the Finals, which is actually better than his career post season TS. His last three games vs. OKC was basically about as well as one can play, so not sure what he could do to show that he was back.

—40/9/8 on 60% TS in game back vs. the Blazers, the “I’m back” game.
—29/5/11 on 67% TS in game 2 back
—28 points on 81% TS in game 2 vs. OKC
—33/7/8 on 65% TS in the last three games vs. OKC., +36.7 ON/OFF :o This is even better than he was in his great regular season. Why did he fall off in the Finals? Seems convenient to say injured when he played this well BEFORE the finals.

DraymondGold wrote: In their closest series, Draymond also was also suspended for Game 5 finals. Not saying he shouldn't have been, just that most metrics (rings vs expected rings, playoff SRS, etc.) will think the healthy Warriors underperformed in that game when in reality they were just injured.


Draymond missed a game, but I don’t see mention of Love missing 1.5 games with a concussion. Obviously Draymond is better than Love and played a great playoffs and one of the greatest game 7s in NBA history but Curry et. al., failed to deliver. Things might have been different had he played game 5, but again, we have to be consistent.

DraymondGold wrote: Starting center Bogut was also injured and out for the final 2.75 games of the finals. Small detail, but Iguodala also tweaked his back in the finals and wasn't able to dunk on a certain fast break at the end of a certain game 7... :o (though Iguodala was basically always ailing in the playoffs, so nothing new here).


This is where it really gets murky. If you’re going to count Bogut (and Iggy) as injuries then you have to go back to your entire list and mention other players that were injured but played.

Let’s first talk about Bogut.

Bogut played in the Finals but was ineffective. In fact, he hadn’t been as effective going back 11 games in the playoffs in which the Warriors were +3.2 points per 100 better without him in those games, primarily because he was bogging down the offense (offense +6.4 per 100 better with him off the court in these games). And then the Finals: Bogut was a non-factor in those finals; would he have been better if he were completely healthy? Maybe, but that applies to every player who’s played in the playoffs, so if he’s part of your “injuries,” well, there would have to be others.

Bogut only played a total of 60 minutes (15, 15, 12, 10, 8) in the series. Kerr saw that he was ineffective as the series went on for multiple reasons (he was bogging down the offense) and didn't play him.

In fact, the Warriors outscored the Cavs with Bogut off court.

In his 60 minutes on court: GS's ORTG: 91.4, GS's DRTG: 111.2, NET: -19.8 per 100 possessions
In the 276 minutes off court: GS's ORTG: 113.2, GS's DRTG: 109.5, NET: +3.7 per 100 possessions.


The Warriors offense was light years better without him and even the defense was a little better. The Warriors were blown out while Bogut was on court. Now, look at the last three games he played as his minutes got fewer and fewer: The Warriors were blown off the court with Bogut on court and Steve Kerr perhaps would have benched him regardless of health.

In his 30 minutes on court: GS's ORTG: 86.2, GS's DRTG: 131, NET: -44.8 per 100 possessions.
In the 114 minutes off court: GS's ORTG: 112.4, GS's DRTG: 116.4, NET: -4.0 per 100 possessions.

Game 1: 15 minutes with him in, -8. 33 minutes with him off, +23
Game 2: 15 minutes with him in, +10. 33 minutes with him off, +23
Game 3: 12 minutes with him in, -21. 36 minutes with him off, -9.
Game 4: 10 minutes with him in, +0. 38 minutes with him off, +11.
Game 5: 8 minutes with him in, -6. 40 minutes with him off, -9.

In his last three games, he was providing no defensive resistance and of course is a negative on offense compared to their other lineups so Kerr didn't play him.

LAST THREE BOGUT GAMES: Protection, and was a liability on our fence:

Overall: Dfg%: 63.6%, opponents usually shoot 50.4%, +13.2%
Under 6ft: Dfg%: 80%, opponents usually shoot 61.7%, +18.3%

As for Iggy, he played the ENTIRE series, 7 games, 230 minutes, 37 minutes in game 7 in which he was +3 on court; the Cavs shot 3/8 vs. him and he played grest defense on LeBron. If you’re counting a guy who played 230 minutes and 7 games and 37 minutes in game 7, then every player with some niggle is open to be labeled “injured.”

DraymondGold wrote: As I've said before, I'm not a fan of championship asterisks. The Cavs won fair and square, and their playoff performance was crazy good. All I'm trying to say is that the context is important. So if the Rockets won 2 championships... but benefited more than most teams from variance... then maybe ring counting (rings vs expected rings) might overrate how good of a playoff performance Hakeem had. If the 16 Warriors played worse in the playoffs and lost in Game 7 by 4 points... maybe this overrates how much of a playoff faller Curry/Warriors are when healthy.


Agree about context being important but you have to be consistent. The series the Warriors lost saw them have all their players who didn’t miss any minutes other than Draymond who missed fewer minutes than Love. Iggy missed zero minutes. Bogut was ineffective; the minutes he did play, he was ineffective and he was ineffective going back at least 11 games. Curry had been injured but again played the entire series and the last three games before the Finals he produced 33/7/8 on 65% TS vs. OKC., +36.7 ON/OFF I don’t count the Warriors as “injured” or “not healthy” after the first round and a half, in which they handily defeated opponents (monster +17.1 per 100 before game 3 vs. Portland) anyway as you have done, but if they are, the Cavs are equally as injured with the minutes Love lost > Draymond’s minutes,
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#192 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jul 18, 2023 9:49 pm

lessthanjake wrote:What is the quantitative evidence backing the idea that Hakeem was a top 2 defensive player of all time?

We do actually have at least a little data on this, and I don’t think it backs a strong conclusion in that regard.

- For instance, Hakeem’s Rockets made the playoffs 14 times. In those 14 years, their postseason defensive rating was only better than the league average postseason defensive rating 8 of the years. If you take a weighted average of how much the Rockets did better or worse than the league average PS defensive rating in the years Hakeem was there, it’s only 0.59 better than average. In the regular season, the Rockets did have some good defenses, but they averaged a rDRTG of just -1.33 in his career. It was -2.28 if you cut it off at 1996-1997. Even if we take that -2.28 number, it’s definitely good, but not exactly evidence of top-2-defensive-player-ever impact. It’s akin to the Pelicans this past season or the 2022 Mavericks.

- We have snippets of defensive RAPM numbers for Hakeem and they don’t look incredible. The GitHub RAPM only starts at 1996-1997 (so it doesn’t really have almost any prime Hakeem), but it never has Hakeem anywhere near the top of the league in DRAPM in any season or any playoff. Meanwhile, we have snippets of earlier seasons from Squared, and Hakeem’s defense isn’t graded out very highly in those data sets. His DRAPM in the 1984-1985 set is positive but there’s a whole ton of players above him in it. In the 1987-1988 set, Hakeem’s DRAPM was negative. Hakeem’s DRAPM in the 1990-1991 set looks good, but there’s still about 10 players ahead of him that I can see. And then the 1995-1996 numbers are positive but half the players in the top 40 have a better DRAPM in that set than Hakeem does. These are very small sample sizes, but Hakeem not coming out super high in any of them seems unlikely if he was really having top-2-all-time defensive impact.

The consensus on Hakeem seems to be built around film analysis, but I’m always pretty skeptical of film analysis when it comes to defense, since there’s so much that goes into defense that is really hard to notice or precisely value when watching the film. So I’m pretty skeptical of calling someone the best defender in history besides Russell when there’s not really any available data that supports him having that kind of impact.


So let me chime in on this here because I have Hakeem tied with Wilt at 9 times being a DPOY ballot guy 2nd only to Russell, and I have Olajuwon being the #1 4t times to Wilt's 3 (though I have Mikan at #1 6 times).

I want to be clear here that while I admire Hakeem a great deal, I was under no assumption that he'd keep making my ballot for some of the reasons you went into about the team's defense, never the less, he kept making it.

As I've said before, I didn't take notes when I did this - unwise - so I can't just give you all the reasons for why I came to the conclusions I did, but I can list out the years, and to the extent they lineup with times where you're skeptical, that yields a point for discussion.

'84-85: 3rd (behind Eaton & Moncrief)
'85-86: 1st
'86-87: 2nd (behind Eaton)
'87-88: 2nd (behind Eaton)
'88-89: 1st
'89-90: 1st
'90-91: ---
'91-92: ---
'92-93: 1st
'93-94: 2nd (behind Mutombo)
'94-95: 3rd (behind Robinson & Ewing)

And that's it.

You mention '87-88 specifically for weak DRAPM data and he's 2nd on my ballot that year, so let me look into that one.

Looking at the top RS DRtg's that year, we get:

1. Utah
2. Detroit
3. Chicago
4. Houston

So, that's quality defense that year from the Rockets and not an obvious reason to be skeptical of Hakeem.

Eaton's Jazz are at #1, no issues there.

Pistons are at #2 and had a hell of a defense, but of course, it's hard to really justify singling out one guy for DPOY. Rodman would eventually be the guy getting the DPOY love, but at this point it's hard to even see him as a candidate for making the ballot.

Jordan of course actually won the DPOY that year. He places 3rd on my ballot, and I'd honestly find it a bit amusing having to justify Olajuwon over him in this thread given that I'm justifying having Jordan on my DPOY ballots at all in a previous project thread.

Zooming in on the Rockets, in the regular season the team had 2 big minute players: Olajuwon & Rodney McCray, and McCray would also make All-D 1st team. But the team would trade McCray to the Kings the next year, and the Kings wouldn't be great on defense, and meanwhile the Rockets improve on defense.

In the playoffs, the Rockets would lose in the first round to a higher seeded team in Dallas that would get to the Conference Finals. Of the Mavs 3 playoff opponents, the Rockets would hold them to the weakest ORtg. (Olajuwon would also look amazing on offense and I don't think anyone thought there was a debate as to who the best player in the series.)

All of this going along with what we know already about Olajuwon - great shotblocker, extremely agile for a big, had the DPOY named after him - makes me pretty confident in saying that with what I see to this point, Olajuwon should at least be a candidate for DPOY this year.

And my real question would be: Should I have someone (other than Eaton) above him?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#193 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:11 pm

eminence wrote:Doc - I appreciate the note on how it’s hard to criticize guys not changing approach when we see them constantly winning, it’s something I forget sometimes with Cousy.

On Mikan and rules changes - I have a tough time critiquing him too harshly for fading a bit with the lane widening. It’s a fairly unique situation.

I imagine most players could be significantly hampered if the league decided to make major rules changes specifically targeted at slowing them down. This was by far the most prominent of those situations I can think of.


Yeah in general, that whole thing where if you win, it's hard to see a need to change can cause all sorts of problems. I remember talking with a guy about VCs back in my start-up days and he talked about how leery they were of giving too much funding and autonomy to those who succeeded their first go 'round and now had their 2nd big idea as they tended to get overly confident and expensively ambitious.

Re: Mikan, rule changes, tough to be harsh. Well a couple things:

I think we should keep in mind that the only reason the other players we're talking about didn't play with that widened-lane Mikan struggled with is that the NBA widened it even further after Wilt arrived. So a) Mikan's offensive dominance came from him playing with a very different court from any we are used to watching and would give a significant advantage to any elite bigs, and b) Wilt & co didn't seem to have their effectiveness hurt as bad as Mikan, arguably indicating that they just had more well-rounded games as a matter of course.

I think we also need to remember that Mikan was 26 at the time of the rule change, which is generally what we see pre-peak for most players and not just in most players in later eras. You absolutely had pros playing 15+ years back before the NBA. Mikan peaking at 26 fading to the point of retirement by age 30 was noteworthy, even back then, and I think we should be careful about thinking about Mikan in that 26-29 age as somehow being the equivalent of being 35+ in today's years.

Incidentally, here's an image of the original key - and if you've ever wondered why it was called a "key" in the first place, I think the picture makes that clear:

Image
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#194 » by lessthanjake » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:20 pm

ShaqAttac wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:For reference for people on Hakeem’s RAPM data in the play-by-play era, since there’s been a comparison of Hakeem’s RAPM to other players at a similar age, we actually have a much better comparison point for this, which does not require comparing RAPM values across different seasons (which may be scaled a bit differently).

Specifically, Patrick Ewing and Hakeem are the same age (and also are relatively similar players), and both played to a late age. So we can directly compare how they played in their older years in the exact same seasons. And, until we get to the very very old-age seasons that basically don’t matter since neither player is doing much at all, Patrick Ewing grades out as decidedly superior to Hakeem in RAPM.

JE RAPM: Patrick Ewing vs. Hakeem Olajuwon
As I said, until you get to age 38-39 where both of them are providing essentially no positive value, Patrick Ewing grades out as superior to Hakeem every single season, and it’s not close. There’s honestly just very little to be all that impressed by in terms of impact data for Hakeem.

what does ewing got to do with shaq? i dont see how this comp matters unless ur plannin to vote for patrick

hakeem looks good in most of the impact i been seeing. u just really like wowyrr for some reason


The point is that Hakeem *doesn’t* look like a top 6 guy in terms of impact. Obviously Patrick Ewing is not someone we’d consider anytime soon in these rankings, and old Ewing was clearly ahead of old Hakeem in impact according to JE’s RAPM, at the same ages in the same years. More specifically, I was refuting an implication that old Hakeem’s RAPM supported his case here. There’s simply not an impact-metric case for Hakeem at this point IMO. His impact metrics just don’t look all that great.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#195 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:21 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Hmm, missed this but uh...
DraymondGold wrote:

Yeah, I think you've misremembered how things unfolded. Things started here:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2257921&p=104349742&#p104349742
Spoiler:
Possibility 4: Enigma just lied. They lied about manually tracking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand. They got the numbers from some website or made them up and lied about manually tracking. If it’s from a website, they haven’t as of yet provided that website so we’re unable to cross-reference that website with PBPStats to see where the disagreement lies.

Think this mostly covers what happened:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104349742#p104349742
Can't quote since the thread was locked but here's the
Spoiler:
aenigma wrote:No, because me calculating it by hand is not a source. You do not need statmuse specifically; you can do the same thing more slowly on stats.nba.com.

...

Because when I am trying to replicate a point of data, my first thought is to make sure that the process… replicates the data. A novel thought I am sure to someone who has made it increasingly apparent they just wants to twist data to suit their priors regardless of logical accuracy.

Ben (approximately) gave us Lebron’s 2016-21 on/off per 48 minutes. On that graph, eyeball says it is a bit higher than 18 (you can draw a line clearly placing the dot higher). But when I do the basketball-reference method, I end up with 17.87. And then pbpstats seemingly has lower net rating assessments than basketball-reference. However, when I do the point differential method? +18.18 per 48 minutes. :-?

Is it biased toward Lebron? Well, we can do the same thing with Robinson. His point on the graph looks like 25 (or at least high 24). The bbr method gives 23.9. However, using point differentials gives +25.13. There again, much closer correspondence.

Now, it is possible those graphs are meaningless and poorly placed. Maybe the dots were thrown randomly and the scales are not correct. But if so, that probably raises some questions about all the eyeball scales you used for Jordan…

TLDR: You used per possessions for something countable that was then turned into a per minute stat, and when more accurate data was provided(for different reasons, but let's boil it down to "using the same process" for lebron and jordan), you assumed aenigma was claiming to have film-tracked it and made assumptions about their process, and threw in the possiblity they were lying before trying to clarify.
I predictably disagree with this interpretation. I don’t think we should derail this thread re-debating an old thread that turned toxic and got closed.

But since you've provided your perspective on that thread...
and since you, Enigma, and ShaqAttak have all accused me of lying in that old post at various points in time (back in that thread, in that other Jordan thread back in the day, in the General Board thread a few days back,)
... It’s worth recapping my interpretation of events just this once, if only to prevent others in this thread who weren't there from thinking that I intentionally lie about numbers (which I pretty obviously do not :crazy: ):
Spoiler:
Link: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104317081#p104317081
Post 180, DraymondGold: We have Jordan’s on/off in per 48 minutes while we have LeBron’s in per 100 possessions. We need to adjust LeBron’s units so it’s apples to apples. I take LeBron’s on/off from Source A (PBPstats, the traditional source for on/off), I get the unit conversion factor from Source B (BasketballReference, a respectable source for possession data), and here are the results for LeBron. Here are full sources and description of methodology.
Post 189, AEnigma, to me: “Yeah some of these numbers are not correct.” and “This is disingenuous” and “it was apparently still necessary to further manipulate the data to benefit Jordan.” Here are new on/off per 48 calculations for LeBron (which disagree with DraymondGold’s). [no source or methodology provided]
Post 191, OhayoKD: Here are my on/off per 48 calculations for LeBron (which disagree with DraymondGold and AEnigma’s). [no source or methodology provided]

Post 193, DraymondGold A: AEnigma, Could you provide a source or methodology? These look inconsistent with the sources I have.
Post 195, AEnigma, to me: “Sad when people try to double down on incorrect numbers”… “I said what I did here: replicating the process used for Jordan’s on/off (point differential and minutes). I am curious what you think is done when people hand-track plus/minus. There is no “source”, you do the work yourself.”
Post 196, AEnigma B: Taking per 100 possessions data and converting to per 48 minutes data “is not the same process as what was done for Jordan.”
OhayoKD: *no reply on sources or methodology*

Post 216, DraymondGold: AEnigma claimed they “replicated the process used for Jordan’s on/off” for LeBron, which they said was “hand-tracking plus/minus” where there is “no source, you do the work yourself”. This would require “hand-tracked 253 LeBron games or over 200+ hours worth of footage, all on their own, without providing any proof of work.” The numbers Enigma gets are mathematically inconsistent with a trusted source. They could have made a variety of honest mistakes in their calculation that explain the discrepancy with official sources, but one of them is that “Enigma just lied… about manually racking LeBron’s 200+ playoff hours by hand.” “OhayoKD, your numbers disagree with both mine and AEnigma’s. Can you please provide a source for yours so we can compare?”

Post 219, OhayoKD: Provides source and methodology (and resorts to personal attacks towards me: “And whether or not you intentionally **** up the math here, consistently **** up, and then doubling down when you have **** up will naturally lead to some readers thinking the **** ups might be intentional.”)

Post 222, Enigma: Suddenly provides a source “you can do the same thing more slowly on stats.nba.com.” Says that my methodology doesn’t perfectly replicate the previous data

*for context, I later reply that the difference in replicating previous data is from 1) rounding error (my numbers were accurate to the ~1st decimal place,) and 2) because we’re averaging in different ways (you can average each year equally vs average by weighting each year by minutes played).* At this point, the thread devolved pretty quickly. Enigma said to me “when you behave like a child and start calling everyone liars” , you accused me of “actually lying”, I left the thread. The thread was closed a few pages later.

For those in the past who genuinely believe that I was genuinely dishonest about numbers and Enigma wasn’t I’d like to reiterate:
I: *provided sources and methodology for all my work in my very first post* (post 180)
Enigma: *didn’t provide source*, said they were “replicating the process used for Jordan’s”, that Jordan’s numbers were “done when people hand-track plus/minus”, that “There is no “source”, you do the work yourself.” (post 189)… then they suddenly said they didn’t do the work of hand-tracking themselves, and that they used the source “stats.nba.com” (post 195)

As I said in that thread, I’m not in the habit accusing others of lying. Other mishaps and miscommunications could have explained the discrepancy in values. If you're generous to Enigma, you could argue that they somehow thought using "stats.nba.com” was the same as using "no source", or that looking up numbers on stats.nba.com was somehow the same as "replicating the process used for Jordan's" (when Jordan's was clearly tracked by hand)...

But if you’re going to accuse anyone of lying, you’d think it would be the person who claimed that “there is no ‘source’” for their data, that they “did the work [themselves]” which they said meant “hand-track[ing] plus/minus data”… and then turned out to be using stats.nba.com as their source. Rather than the person who provided sources and methodology from the beginning.
That's really the last I want to dwell on that thread. The players we were discussing have already been voted in, and that thread turned toxic while hopefully this one does not. My goal in replying to this post and bringing that thread back up is to prevent newer people from thinking I'm somehow dishonest (despite citing sources and detailing methodology for basically every post in that old thread).


Guys, let's dial it down. I think it's clear that continuing the conversation from here isn't going to be productive.

For everyone involved, whether because of posting here or because they were quoted, let's not bring up old stuff that's primarily relevant because of interpersonal confrontation.

Thank you,
Doc
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#196 » by eminence » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:26 pm

Fading to the point of retirement feels a bit much, he was clearly still a contender for best in the league at a minimum and retired (similarly to Russell) with nothing left to prove by any reasonable standard. He’d lapped the field that came before him.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#197 » by DraymondGold » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:36 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
DraymondGold wrote:
I've been using *injured* as a shorthand for missed games (which could be due to other reasons like suspensions, sickness, mid-career retirement before coming back, etc... just having one word is a lot easier than having to spell out every reason).

Makes sense but if we write that out then it has to be consistent for all teams.

DraymondGold wrote:For 2016: Curry was clearly injured. He missed 6 games & wasn't able to start in 7 games, so that will decrease the 2016 Warriors' Playoff SRS compared to what it would have been when healthy. When he came back, he was still playing through injury. It's blatantly obvious in the stats if you compare Curry's/team stats to any other point in 2016 or any of the neighboring years. You can also see it on film at times, where his speed isn't what it was that year when healthy and where is shooting rhythm wasn't what it was.


Might not be at his best but he did wind up playing every game after he came back and heavy minutes (36 minutes per game with lessened minutes in 4 different blowouts). If we count this as an injury, especially if the player plays in every game of the series, then there are other players who have been injured or might have been and then were affected when they came back but are not listed as injured.

Also, he had some good games before the Finals and maybe not up to where he was in the regular season, but it was still 29/6/7/2 on 62% TS in the 9 games before the Finals, which is actually better than his career post season TS. His last three games vs. OKC was basically about as well as one can play, so not sure what he could do to show that he was back.

—40/9/8 on 60% TS in game back vs. the Blazers, the “I’m back” game.
—29/5/11 on 67% TS in game 2 back
—28 points on 81% TS in game 2 vs. OKC
—33/7/8 on 65% TS in the last three games vs. OKC., +36.7 ON/OFF :o This is even better than he was in his great regular season. Why did he fall off in the Finals? Seems convenient to say injured when he played this well BEFORE the finals.
Good points! My interpretation thus far has been the 2016 post-injury Curry might be summarized with a metaphor:

Let's say you're in a race, and a certain player has the fastest car around. The final cup starts, that blazing fast car is out ahead of everybody, but there's a sudden crash due to an unexpected wet road. The car's out getting repaired, but the other racers are still going! So they put the car back in with the plan to ride it until the wheels fall off. Even banged up, it still has great horsepower and acceleration... so it keeps sputtering on and looks like it has a chance to win the whole thing. But racing with a damaged car isn't a great long term solution... the race takes its toll, and on the final lap, the wheels *literally do fall off*. The driver keeps racing anyway, hoping to get the car over the finish line just in time, but it ends up not being enough, and the car takes 2nd place by a split second.

You can seethes trend in other players (even other injured/injury-prone ones like Kawhi certain seasons), who start strong but lose steam as continued wear and tear does *more damage to their original injury*.

It's also worth noting that we see evidence for the injury if we look beyond the box core:
-adjusted plus minus metrics like AuPM and PIPM place 2016 postseason as a major down year for Curry, even when including the two better series against the Blazers and OKC.
-team metrics like the ones here place 2016 as a major down year for the Warriors (https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107616471#p107616471). The two series you mention where Curry played better in box stats would place in the bottom 5 series in Playoff SRS among the non-KD warriors. All 3 series after the injury are in the bottom 3rd of the Warriors Dynasty's series, and in the bottom half of the non-KD Warriors Dynasty's series, including under 3 series from 2015. Considering 2016 was clearly the better team than 2015 when healthy, I'd argue this is evidence that all is not right with the 2016 Warriors (i.e. Curry is injured).
Combine that with quotes from the team that suggest Curry wasn't healthy and was totally limited (e.g. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nba/steve-kerr-reveals-how-steph-currys-injury-affected-the-warriors-in-the-finals, others) and to me that provides a clear contextual for why the Warriors struggled more in the 2016 playoffs than any other playoffs.

Let me know if you have another interpretation!

DraymondGold wrote: In their closest series, Draymond also was also suspended for Game 5 finals. Not saying he shouldn't have been, just that most metrics (rings vs expected rings, playoff SRS, etc.) will think the healthy Warriors underperformed in that game when in reality they were just injured.


Draymond missed a game, but I don’t see mention of Love missing 1.5 games with a concussion. Obviously Draymond is better than Love and played a great playoffs and one of the greatest game 7s in NBA history but Curry et. al., failed to deliver. Things might have been different had he played game 5, but again, we have to be consistent.
Lol I thought you asked me about which Warriors were injured -- I didn't mention Love because he wasn't on the warriors! :lol:

But yes, you're absolutely right that a wholistic team analysis requires consistency. No problem there.

DraymondGold wrote: Starting center Bogut was also injured and out for the final 2.75 games of the finals. Small detail, but Iguodala also tweaked his back in the finals and wasn't able to dunk on a certain fast break at the end of a certain game 7... :o (though Iguodala was basically always ailing in the playoffs, so nothing new here).


This is where it really gets murky. If you’re going to count Bogut (and Iggy) as injuries then you have to go back to your entire list and mention other players that were injured but played.

Let’s first talk about Bogut.

Bogut played in the Finals but was ineffective. In fact, he hadn’t been as effective going back 11 games in the playoffs in which the Warriors were +3.2 points per 100 better without him in those games, primarily because he was bogging down the offense (offense +6.4 per 100 better with him off the court in these games). And then the Finals: Bogut was a non-factor in those finals; would he have been better if he were completely healthy? Maybe, but that applies to every player who’s played in the playoffs, so if he’s part of your “injuries,” well, there would have to be others.

Bogut only played a total of 60 minutes (15, 15, 12, 10, 8) in the series. Kerr saw that he was ineffective as the series went on for multiple reasons (he was bogging down the offense) and didn't play him.

In fact, the Warriors outscored the Cavs with Bogut off court.

In his 60 minutes on court: GS's ORTG: 91.4, GS's DRTG: 111.2, NET: -19.8 per 100 possessions
In the 276 minutes off court: GS's ORTG: 113.2, GS's DRTG: 109.5, NET: +3.7 per 100 possessions.


The Warriors offense was light years better without him and even the defense was a little better. The Warriors were blown out while Bogut was on court. Now, look at the last three games he played as his minutes got fewer and fewer: The Warriors were blown off the court with Bogut on court and Steve Kerr perhaps would have benched him regardless of health.

In his 30 minutes on court: GS's ORTG: 86.2, GS's DRTG: 131, NET: -44.8 per 100 possessions.
In the 114 minutes off court: GS's ORTG: 112.4, GS's DRTG: 116.4, NET: -4.0 per 100 possessions.

Game 1: 15 minutes with him in, -8. 33 minutes with him off, +23
Game 2: 15 minutes with him in, +10. 33 minutes with him off, +23
Game 3: 12 minutes with him in, -21. 36 minutes with him off, -9.
Game 4: 10 minutes with him in, +0. 38 minutes with him off, +11.
Game 5: 8 minutes with him in, -6. 40 minutes with him off, -9.

In his last three games, he was providing no defensive resistance and of course is a negative on offense compared to their other lineups so Kerr didn't play him.

LAST THREE BOGUT GAMES: Protection, and was a liability on our fence:

Overall: Dfg%: 63.6%, opponents usually shoot 50.4%, +13.2%
Under 6ft: Dfg%: 80%, opponents usually shoot 61.7%, +18.3%

As for Iggy, he played the ENTIRE series, 7 games, 230 minutes, 37 minutes in game 7 in which he was +3 on court; the Cavs shot 3/8 vs. him and he played grest defense on LeBron. If you’re counting a guy who played 230 minutes and 7 games and 37 minutes in game 7, then every player with some niggle is open to be labeled “injured.”
Agreed Bogut wasn't the best for that series. But I'd argue some of the non-Bogut minutes were buffed by the small ball death lineup. The problem was they couldn't play small ball all game -- so who do you play in the big man minutes? I'd think having Bogut available is definitely better than just having Ezeli or Varejão, who were certainly not positives for the team.

To get back to the general complaint (about mentioning Bogut/Draymond), I've been trying to get a measure of how much variability helped a team win a championship or led to a team falling short (remember, this all got started in a conversation about rings vs expected rings).

If a series is super close (like those two were for the 95 Rockets and those two were for the 16 Warriors), changes in injury luck (even to 4th or 5th best players) make it more likely that variability could go the other way. The Warriors lost game 7 by 4 points, and lost the series MoV by 0.5 points. My point is that variability/luck played a role in that series, that an accumulation of injuries to various payers likely helped the variance go against the Warriors this time.

If you'd rather just stick with injuries to more important players though for consistency, then only cite variability for the close series (ignoring injuries to 4th/5th/6th men), that would also be a valid criteria for evaluating the cause of team under/over- performance.

DraymondGold wrote: As I've said before, I'm not a fan of championship asterisks. The Cavs won fair and square, and their playoff performance was crazy good. All I'm trying to say is that the context is important. So if the Rockets won 2 championships... but benefited more than most teams from variance... then maybe ring counting (rings vs expected rings) might overrate how good of a playoff performance Hakeem had. If the 16 Warriors played worse in the playoffs and lost in Game 7 by 4 points... maybe this overrates how much of a playoff faller Curry/Warriors are when healthy.


Agree about context being important but you have to be consistent. The series the Warriors lost saw them have all their players who didn’t miss any minutes other than Draymond who missed fewer minutes than Love. Iggy missed zero minutes. Bogut was ineffective; the minutes he did play, he was ineffective and he was ineffective going back at least 11 games. Curry had been injured but again played the entire series and the last three games before the Finals he produced [b]33/7/8 on 65% TS vs. OKC., +36.7 ON/OFF :o I don’t count the Warriors as “injured” or “not healthy” after the first round and a half, in which day, Handley defeated opponents anyway as you have done, but if they are, the Cavs are equally as injured with the minutes Love lost > Draymond’s minutes,
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#198 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:36 pm

By my count, the current vote has Hakeem ahead with 8, Wilt with 6, Shaq with 4, and KG with 1. I have a very hard time agreeing with having Hakeem quite this high, and given he was #9 on the last Top 100, I don't know what's changed in the last three years to warrant moving him up three spots, other than it being just a different pool of voters.

Even with all of the extensive arguments made in this thread, I still have both Shaq and Wilt, and Magic, ahead of Hakeem.

For Shaq/Hakeem, I'll be brief and say a number of things I've said before.

As scorers - Shaq's career average TS Add is 145.2. For Hakeem's I quote myself:

His career average is 50.5. Ok, he had a fairly significant drop-off at the end, so let's help him look at his average only up through the lockout-shortened 98-99 season - it's 64.9. If we help even a bit more and cut it off after 96-97, it's 67.8


Shaq's career average rTS is +5.7%. Hakeem's is +1.4%.

As playmakers - They are relatively equal. We only have PBP for Hakeem's later years, so I'm being a bit crude here and just using assist numbers as a quick-glance comparison.

Shaq's career average RS APG is 2.5apg; Hakeem's is also 2.5apg.
Shaq's career average PO APG is 2.7apg; Hakeem's is 3.2apg.

And Hakeem did have that three-year stretch where he had 4apg in the playoffs every year, and Shaq only did that once, so Hakeem has a slight edge but not really a huge one.

I believe that Shaq's big scoring advantage, taken with their relatively equal playmaking, means that Shaq had an overall bigger offensive impact. Obviously Hakeem had a sizeable defensive advantage over Shaq, but I can't shake the thought that Shaq had a bigger overall impact, that Shaq's offensive advantage may outweigh Hakeem's defensive advantage. This is just one season so perhaps it doesn't mean much, I've compared RAPMs for each player's 13th seasons - 2004-05 and 1996-97, respectively, because one, it's the first year where the data is available for Hakeem and two, it's one of the last prime seasons for both players.

Shaq: 4.31 O-RAPM+2.07 D-RAPM=6.38 RAPM
Hakeem: 1.43 O-RAPM+1.93 D-RAPM=3.37 RAPM

Now, Hakeem's D-RAPM there is almost certainly an outlier because he recorded 3+ D-RAPMs in the following three seasons, but even if I give Hakeem an extra two points there, he's still a full point behind Shaq in total RAPM.

It's true Hakeem's D-RAPM would probably be higher in his earlier years if we had the data, but Shaq's O-RAPM is higher in his earlier years too(and in fact a higher D-RAPM in some of them too)(and we don't have his Orlando years).

Based on all of this, I think that Shaq was the more impactful overall player. And what pushes it over the edge for me is this:

Shaq came into the league with Orlando, who were an expansion team going into its fourth year of existence having never won more than 31 games, and spearheaded a 20-game(21 to 41), nearly 8-point SRS swing(-6.52 to 1.35) in his rookie year. By his third year(yes, with some crazy 1993 lottery luck), they were in the Finals.

He went to LA at a time when they were just starting to get good again after Showtime and anchored an era that saw four finals appearances, a threepeat, and eight straight 50+ win seasons.

He went to Miami, where the Heat had been a 42-win, -0.13 SRS team that sort of surprised in how hard they pushed the Pacers in their six-game second round series, and, along with Wade, was at the center of a 17-win, nearly 6 SRS point swing(and that's with them losing Lamar Odom and Caron Butler in the trade) that saw them get one game away from the Finals(and a lot of people still think they would've gotten there and possibly won it all if Wade hadn't gotten hurt in that series).

Shaq had a stretch of his career where he won at least 50 games twelve times(they were at a 50-win pace in the 99 lockout season) and went at least to the Conference Finals nine times(including six trips to the Finals and four championships) in twelve seasons across three different organizations with three different second options, at least three distinct supporting casts(maybe more than that considering how the lineup around him and Kobe kept changing from Eddie Jones/Nick Van Exel/Cedric Ceballos to Glen Rice/AC Green/Ron Harper to Robert Horry/Rick Fox/Derek Fisher/Horace Grant to Karl Malone/Gary Payton/Devean George), and five different head coaches(Brian Hill, Del Harris, Phil Jackson, Stan Van Gundy, Pat Riley).

Shaquille O'Neal strikes me as one of the safest bets to build a contender around in the history of the NBA.


And I would also take Wilt over Hakeem for similar reasons:

1. An even greater scoring edge over Hakeem(Wilt's career average TS Add is 256.2; even adjusted for pace, by my calculations, it's 209.6)

2. A lesser defensive gap because Wilt was a different tier of defender than Shaq.

3. Different contexts again - took a subpar Warriors team to the Finals, won the title with Philly(and may have done so again were it not for injuries), and won another title with the Lakers(and may have won several more if not for injuries and bad coaching decisions).

I want to briefly touch on Wilt's bad luck - some of you handwaive this away, but I feel like it can't be ignored.

In 1968, they were missing Billy Cunningham in that Celtics series, their third best player(who would lead the team in scoring the following season), and Wilt himself was also playing hurt. They took a 3-1 lead in that series, and then only lost Game 7 by four points. You don't think Cunningham would've changed the outcome of that series, let alone Wilt's own health?

In 1969, he was willfully kept out of the final minutes of a close Game 7 of the Finals because his coach didn't like him. That's entirely on Breda Kolff.

In 1971, he was in the awful situation of having to go up against an ATG Bucks team(led by the one guy in the league who could guard him effectively) without the other star of his team in the injured Jerry West.

And in 1973, the Lakers were without Happy Hairston, a key starter on the 72 title team who was putting up 16/13 on +6.3 rTS before going down 28 games into the season; he played a few playoff games(including two in the Finals) but it was limited minutes and he wasn't himself.

And this doesn't mention the subpar Warriors teams he had early in his career.

I will write a separate post about Magic later.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#199 » by penbeast0 » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:37 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
The point is that Hakeem *doesn’t* look like a top 6 guy in terms of impact. Obviously Patrick Ewing is not someone we’d consider anytime soon in these rankings, and old Ewing was clearly ahead of old Hakeem in impact according to JE’s RAPM, at the same ages in the same years. More specifically, I was refuting an implication that old Hakeem’s RAPM supported his case here. There’s simply not an impact-metric case for Hakeem at this point IMO. His impact metrics just don’t look all that great.


Have you looked at his playoff impact numbers? Because if it is top 10 regular season players of all time, Hakeem isn't getting in. But as one of the greatest playoff risers in NBA history, that has moved him up strongly in posters' regard.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #6 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/18/23) 

Post#200 » by f4p » Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:38 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:...

The first bolded: Yes, true, but then we have to consistent with listing injuries and what counts as “injuries.” There are obvious cases like KD in 2019, Magic in 1989, etc., but aside from those obvious cases, both sides will probably say they had injuries.

Second bolded: Who was injured in 2016 when they lost?



Agreed! There's definitely a judgement call on what threshold injury counts where it gets tricky. For Hakeem, that's partly why I've been trying to emphasize *close series already subject to variability* + injury... basically everyone *should* agree that some of these final-game series for Hakeem were close enough to be subject to variability/luck.


well yes, they were, but no more so than bill russell essentially winning 10 coin flips in game 7's. on average, he probably should have a decent amount fewer championships. i believe 8 of them were at home so if you applied the historical average of about 80% home winning percentage in game 7's, he should have won 6.8 of them and should have lost out on 3 championships. but he didn't. maybe he was lucky, maybe he was magic.

i think it's important in hakeem's case that he didn't just outperform in the playoffs as a team, but also as an individual. he wasn't just along for the ride for outperformance. considering the rockets were maybe the most heliocentric offense in the league at that time, it's hard to say hakeem isn't causing a lot of the outperformance, even if some of it might also be teammates. look at the knicks series. if hakeem doesn't demolish ewing, the series isn't even in the range for variance to matter. hakeem had to drag the rockets to that point. and something seemingly random like starks shot to win the finals in game 6, was literally erased by hakeem blocking it. more than most, hakeem seems to be the variance.

yes, we can point to SRS as saying the rockets weren't the strongest, but then we're just back to saying hakeem had weak teammates. like the 1995 spurs series was a close series. it didn't go 7 but it was decided by less than 2 ppg. but a huge amount of the decisive margin is just hakeem destroying robinson. 1995 utah hakeem scores 35 ppg on 57.3 FG% and adds 4 apg. 1994 phoenix hakeem averages huge numbers and puts up a 37/17 game 7 with 5 ast and 3 blk. it's not just that hakeem outperformed, but he seemed to do it in the most high-leverage situations. the one's where a possible championship was on a knife's edge. and not just by playing well in a vacuum, but by playing better than the other HOF/Top 30 guy on the other team.

maybe to you it's variance and luck, but i'm not sure we can treat it that way. when someone comes through that consistently. we can't just start treating championships, the highest accomplishment there is, as just probabilistic if they were close. the 1994 knicks and their fans probably look back at those finals as a bitter disappointment, not as something that just escaped them due to variance. that's just the nature of the beast.

and even then, we're still talking about massive team outperformance. like even if you wanted to say the 1994 and 1995 championship were lucky, they started at 6.1% and 0.2% chances when the playoffs started. even coming close to winning the championship was already amazing. even if you wanted to only credit hakeem with a half championship each, his "actual vs expected" delta would drop to 1 - 0.1 = 0.9. but that 0.9 would still be 27th out of 103, amazing for someone with so few chances, and the percentage delta of 884% would still lap the field in 1st place.


So any injuries to opponents just tilt the odds of variability/luck more in Hakeem's favor. This is something you could say about almost every championship, but my point is that Hakeem benefited more variability than other championships, and "Rings over expected Rings" is a measure that seems pretty biased to overrate a player who benefited from more variability/luck/opposing injuries.


even if it was variability/luck, then i'm not sure what other option he had. when your 2nd and 3rd leading scorers in the finals (1994) have 44.5 TS% and 43.2 TS% and your starting point guard gets shutdown to 5.6 ppg on 50.5 TS%, there's not going to be a dominant 5 game win in your future. when there are four 57 win teams in the nba and you have to play them all on the road, i would guess you are in for a bumpy ride unless you just have gobs of talent on the team.


For 2016: Curry was clearly injured. He missed 6 games & wasn't able to start in 7 games, so that will decrease the 2016 Warriors' Playoff SRS compared to what it would have been when healthy. When he came back, he was still playing through injury. It's blatantly obvious in the stats if you compare Curry's/team stats to any other point in 2016 or any of the neighboring years.


his playoff stats look a lot like 2018 and 2019. 2017 seems to be the outlier. in 2016, he also put up his best numbers right when coming back against portland and then still had very nice numbers against a very long, very athletic OKC team in the WCF (28/6/6 on 61 TS%), including a great game 7. you would expect poorer performances early on as he gets his legs under him. it was only when he got to cleveland, with kyrie irving at point guard and kevin love being exploitable at PF, that his numbers cratered to 23/5/4 on 58 TS% and over 4 turnovers per game.

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