RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Wilt Chamberlain)

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RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Wilt Chamberlain) 

Post#1 » by Doctor MJ » Wed Jul 19, 2023 3:58 pm

Our system is now as follows:

1. We have a pool of Nominees you are to choose from for your Induction (main) vote to decide who next gets on the List. Choose your top vote, and if you'd like to, a second vote which will be used for runoff purposes if needed.

2. There will also be a Nomination vote where whoever gets nominated by the most voters gets added to the Nominee list for subsequent votes. This is again optional.

3. You must include reasoning for each of your votes, though you may re-use your old words in a new post.

4. Post as much as they want, but when you do your official Vote make it really clear to me at the top of that post that that post is your Vote. And if you decide to change your vote before the votes are tallied, please edit that same Vote post.

5. Anyone may post thoughts, but please only make a Vote post if you're on the Voter list. If you'd like to be added to the project, please ask in the General Thread for the project. Note that you will not be added immediately to the project now. If you express an interest during the #2 thread, for example, the earliest you'll be added to the Voter list is for the #3.

5. I'll tally the votes when I wake up the morning after the Deadline (I don't care if you change things after the official Deadline, but once I tally, it's over). For this specific Vote, if people ask before the Deadline, I'll extend it.

Here's the list of the Voter Pool as it stands right now (and if I forgot anyone I approved, do let me know):

Spoiler:
AEnigma
Ambrose
ceilng raiser
ceoofkobefans
Clyde Frazier
Colbinii
cupcakesnake
Doctor MJ
Dooley
DQuinn1575
Dr Positivity
DraymondGold
Dutchball97
eminence
f4p
falcolombardi
Fundamentals21
HeartBreakKid
homecourtloss
iggymcfrack
LA Bird
JimmyFromNz
lessthanjake
ljspeelman
Lou Fan
Moonbeam
Narigo
OhayoKD
One_and_Done
penbeast0
rk2023
ShaqAttac
Taj FTW
Tim Lehrbach
trelos6
trex_8063
ty 4191
ZeppelinPage


Alright, the Nominees for you to choose among for the next slot on the list (in alphabetical order):

Wilt Chamberlain
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Steph Curry
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Kevin Garnett
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Magic Johnson
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Shaquille O'Neal
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#2 » by AEnigma » Wed Jul 19, 2023 4:11 pm

As he is wont to do, Hakeem clutches out an unexpected but deserved victory in spite of “by the numbers” analysis. :beer:

On that note…
Nominate: Kobe Bryant
In discussing my third tier of players — Magic, Shaq, and Wilt — I have highlighted that they somewhat coincidentally each made thirteen postseason appearances in their first fourteen seasons. There are always variables to this (condolences to Oscar Robertson), but “thirteen postseasons” tends to serve as a suitable bar for meaningful longevity among superstars. Jordan and Garnett both had thirteen postseason appearances. Durant and Chris Paul both hit that marker this past year. Hakeem had fifteen all as his team’s best player, as did Dirk (whom I will nominate soon). Curry, incidentally, is now at nine.

Kobe had fourteen postseason appearances as a top two player on his teams (plus 2013, where he does not provide any postseason value but did drag the team there). He has fifteen all-NBA selections, and I agree with fourteen of those. Overall he has a high end NBA career length (admittedly bolstered by early entry into the league), and with what I think is a comfortable top 20 peak, he has my support here as a nominee and as someone I will strongly consider in that #10-12 range.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#3 » by eminence » Wed Jul 19, 2023 4:14 pm

On Magic - he got virtually eliminated prior to my vote last round so I didn't take much time on him, but I feel folks should examine how they feel about his longevity. Nobody has to, but he's a guy I'm going to give the edge to if it winds up feeling close due to the circumstances around how his career effectively ended after '91. Magic was a proven NBA great who wanted to play and was kept from the league due to a very unfortunate intersection of disease awareness/medical advancement/bigotry.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#4 » by lessthanjake » Wed Jul 19, 2023 4:42 pm

Vote for #7: Stephen Curry
Alternate Vote: Shaquille O’Neal
Nomination: Larry Bird

On Steph, I’ve made a very long post in the last thread while nominating him, which I think encompasses my views on him: viewtopic.php?p=107697936#p107697936. Basically, I’m incredibly impressed by Steph’s combination of (1) raising a team to best-team-ever status, and more generally winning at a 68-win pace and 10+ SRS over 5 years, (2) winning a title with a fairly subpar supporting cast (by title-winning standards), all while (3) having incredible impact numbers along the way, and (4) being the undisputed greatest ever at the game’s most fundamental skill.

Shaquille O’Neal is my alternate vote, and the reasoning for that is essentially set forth in my vote for him in the last thread: viewtopic.php?p=107697927#p107697927.

In terms of nomination, I’m tentatively saying Larry Bird. However, I am genuinely torn between Bird and Kobe, and am hoping to see arguments on both sides on that. Am definitely open to changing my vote.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#5 » by AEnigma » Wed Jul 19, 2023 5:04 pm

eminence wrote:On Magic - he got virtually eliminated prior to my vote last round so I didn't take much time on him, but I feel folks should examine how they feel about his longevity. Nobody has to, but he's a guy I'm going to give the edge to if it winds up feeling close due to the circumstances around how his career effectively ended after '91. Magic was a proven NBA great who wanted to play and was kept from the league due to a very unfortunate intersection of disease awareness/medical advancement/bigotry.

On Magic: gestured at this previously, but his GOAT path was comfortably ahead of Jordan’s pace when he was forced into retirement. Magic was securely better at basically every age until their respective age 23 (per basketball-reference here because both have birthdays after the data cutoff) seasons. And while I am sure many would prefer 1987-90 Jordan to 1983-87 Magic (I am more mixed on the question), by that point Magic had four rings and three Finals MVPs to Jordan’s zero. Jordan makes up ground from 1991-93… but then he retires while Magic has a phenomenal age 31 season. So at the time of Jordan’s first retirement, even if the public prefers his high octane scoring and had already crowned him the greatest guard in league history, he has no real accomplishment advantage over Magic (nor would I say he was as tied to his team’s success). For me, it was not until 1997 where the totality of Jordan’s career probably had surpassed Magic’s career, and then 1998 (plus signs of a higher level aging curve in 2002/03) was what created a full tier of separation between the two.

For how most of us approach this exercise, minutes and longevity hold Magic back. Even then, I find myself considering Oscar — the greatest guard before these two arrived. Around ten thousand more minutes played. Second highest minute load throughout his career (by far), behind only notorious exception Wilt. In presence, he offered more to his teams than Magic ever did, or possibly even would have without the stigma of the time. And yet I prefer Magic without a second thought, because that is how much better he played the position. The Lakers for his entire career were a ~7.5 net rating team. 900 games at that level, and then regularly mediocre without him (despite decent enough replacements). Very similar circumstances to Tim Duncan, except with a potentially (likely) even better aging curve.

I do not know whom I want to pick first between Wilt and Magic, but it does leave a sour taste knowing that if I pick Wilt it will ultimately be because Magic’s league could not tolerate him on the court being all HIV infected and whatnot.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#6 » by rk2023 » Wed Jul 19, 2023 5:24 pm

lessthanjake wrote:In terms of nomination, I’m tentatively saying Larry Bird. However, I am genuinely torn between Bird and Kobe, and am hoping to see arguments on both sides on that. Am definitely open to changing my vote.


I would take Bird's single season peak as well as 84-86 Bird > 08-10 Kobe, though I think it's rather close between the two in the case of the latter - closer than most on this board do. When looking at careers, I see somewhat of a different story.

Bird starts out with the same scalable, 'do-it-all' approach to basketball he maintained for all of his career - though it seems as if Bird took the offensive leap more parallel to the second half of his true prime in 1984. I would say 1982 and 83 were better offensive campaigns than his first two seasons - but he wasn't quite the efficacious playoff scorer in aggregate the first 4 seasons of his career. A similar trend is seen with his comfort as a volume passer and shot creator - where I see Bird's free flowing offensive game creating a scenario where more confident scoring -> more confident passing. Earlier on, he was also a formidable defender and held his own for the most part until 1987 and definitely until 1988.

Kobe on the other hand comes in much younger and much less valuable into the league. With that said, it's worth adding he levels up every year of his career with prominent, championship #2 impact/production years coming at age 21 & 22 in 2000/2001 - before the age Bird made his NBA debut. Of course, 2001 was Kobe's rise to stardom as a theoretical 1st offensive option - something he maintained through almost all of his career from 2001-13 (with some exceptions like the injured 2011 span, 2012, 2005 so on). His defense starts out with all-time years in this department (1999/2000), then tapers off incrementally for most of his prime before somewhat a resurgence in 2008-10 when Kobe's effort & approach are imo at an all time high and there is a good cast around him.

Stacking up their true primes with a combination of box and impact, though I acknowledge this as far from an end-all, be-all:

Kobe:
Spoiler:
Proxy wrote:Kobe Bryant absurd offensive resilience('01-'10):

RS -> PS:
29.3 Pts Per 75 -> 28.8 Pts Per 75
+2.8 rTS% -> +3.3 rTS%
8.45 cTOV% -> 8.4 cTOV%
8.5 Box Creation -> 8.6 Box Creation
+3.4 Team rORTG -> 5.6 rORTG

49.1 O Load -> 47.7 O Load
1.1 ScoreVal -> 1.3 ScoreVal
.9 PlayVal -> .9 PlayVal
4.8 BPM -> 6.1 BPM
+7.5 On/Off (5.5 On) -> 9.0 On/Off (4.6 On)

Average defense played in that stretch(148 Games): Ranked #5 in the league, -3.2 rDRTG


Same approach for Bird in 1980-88:
Spoiler:

Code: Select all

23.9 P/75 -> 22.2 P/75 (influenced by minutes)
+3.1 rTS% -> +2.5 rTS%
6.0 Box Creation -> 6.3 Box Creation
[unsure about team rORTG] +4.2 in RS however

41.9 O Load -> 39.3 O Load
1.2 ScoreVal -> 1.0 ScoreVal
1.4 PlayVal -> 1.0
6.1 BPM -> 6.3 BPM


Furthermore, some analysis back in 2016 from both's 5 year peaks:
Spoiler:
D Nice wrote:
Bird’s Best Support {in window}
84-88 McHale: 21.5/8.5/2 63TS% (Age 26-30)
84-88 Parish: 17/10/2 59TS% (Age 30-34)
84-88 DJ: 14/3.5/6.5 51TS% (Age 29-33)
84-85 Maxwell: 11.5/5.2 62TS% (Age 28-29)
86 Walton: 7.5/7/2 61TS%
85-88 Ainge: 13.5/3/5.5 58TS% (Age 25-28)

84 Celtics: 62 Wins, 6.4 SRS
85 Celtics: 63 Wins, 6.5 SRS
86 Celtics: 67 Wins, 9.1 SRS
87 Celtics: 59 Wins, 6.6 SRS
88 Celtics: 57 Wins, 6.2 SRS

AVG: 62 Wins, 7.0 SRS

Kobe’s Best Support {in window}
08-11 Pau: 18.5/10/3.5 60TS% (Age 27-30)
08-11 Odom: 12.5/9/3 56TS% (Age 28-31)
08-11 Bynum: 13.5/9/1.5 61TS% (Age 20-23…Injured 3/4 PS runs and missed 1/2 RS games...)
09 Ariza: 9/4/2 54TS% (Age 23)
10-11 Artest: 10/4/2.5 50TS% (Age 30-31)
08-11 Fisher: 9/2/3 53TS (Age 33-36)

08 Lakers: 57 Wins, 7.3 SRS
09 Lakers: 65 Wins, 7.1 SRS
10 Lakers: 57 Wins, 4.8 SRS
11 Lakers: 57 Wins, 6.0 SRS (Post-Prime)

AVG: 59 Wins, 6.4 SRS

06-10 RS Kobe: 30.0ppg/5.0apg - 56.5TS% 10.5TO%
84-88 RS Bird: 27.0ppg/7.0apg - 59.0TS% 11.5TO%
06-10 PS Kobe: 30.0ppg/5.5apg - 57.0TS% 11.0TO%
84-88 PS Bird: 26.5ppg/6.5apg - 57.5TS% 12.0TO%


It seems there's not much box-based evidence (am aware this leans much more on the offensive side) indicating a difference between the two offensively during this side. While I would take Bird's track record in the RS, I'm more keen on Kobe's playoff translation out of the two players. Considering (1) that 10 years >= a fringe MVP+ level would be more valuable than 9, (2) I don't see too substantial a gap (if any) in the value of the average season between the two players from this time frame, and (3) I would take Kobe's supporting years of 97-00 and 11-13 over 90-92 Bird [sort of obviously] - I feel comfortable taking Kobe in a career sense.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#7 » by Owly » Wed Jul 19, 2023 6:23 pm

eminence wrote:On Magic - he got virtually eliminated prior to my vote last round so I didn't take much time on him, but I feel folks should examine how they feel about his longevity. Nobody has to, but he's a guy I'm going to give the edge to if it winds up feeling close due to the circumstances around how his career effectively ended after '91. Magic was a proven NBA great who wanted to play and was kept from the league due to a very unfortunate intersection of disease awareness/medical advancement/bigotry.

Hmm .... disease awareness and medical advancement sure. Bigotry ... I imagine there was some as well as genuine fear and uncertainty. Ultimately it was his decision to retire and his decision not to return (albeit in the face of some public opposition/criticism).

I'd also suggest Magic, with limited knowledge on the details, may not have been merely unlucky in terms of probability of contracting STIs.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#8 » by Samurai » Wed Jul 19, 2023 6:50 pm

Repeating my vote from the previous round:

Vote for #7: Wilt Chamberlain
I think Wilt's offense tends to get overrated due to his crazy scoring numbers early in his career and his defense tends to get underrated, largely because he was playing at the same time as (and thus often compared to) Bill Russell. His case is clearly supported by the numbers: 7 scoring titles, 11 rebounding titles, 8 Win Share titles, and he thus far remains the only center to lead the league in assists. While everyone knows about his 100 point game and averaging over 50 ppg in a season, I think I'm actually impressed by his averaging over 48 minutes/game in a season. Heck, some fans get restless just sitting and watching a game for the full 48 minutes! And since Wilt was attempting over 39 shots and grabbing 25+ rebounds per game, he was doing a lot more than just sitting and watching the game for the full 48 minutes. I don't believe in time machines so I won't even speculate on how he would do if he jumped in a magic DeLorean in his prime and showed up in the NBA today. But based on what he accomplished in his own time, he gets my vote.

Nominate: Larry Bird
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#9 » by ZeppelinPage » Wed Jul 19, 2023 6:52 pm

Vote: Wilt Chamberlain
Alternate: Shaquille O'Neal
Nomination: Jerry West

Shaq gets the nod as the alternate vote for me. Dominance in the playoffs made him seemingly unstoppable at times.

With Curry already getting some nomination votes I'd like to get Jerry West in the discussion here soon. Incredible two-way player and ranks 10th in Career TS Added on high volume.

Here are some posts I've made during this project to explain my Wilt vote:

1. Wilt Chamberlain's Personality: Being Coachable & His Desire to Win

2. Wilt's Playoff Luck Regarding Injuries
Spoiler:
Wilt wasn't as fortunate to have a consistently healthy and deep team, which is why I don't think it's as simple as assessing his championships and blaming him. If a player performs in a playoff setting but his teammates falter, I don't hold him accountable unless there's reason to believe otherwise. After all, basketball is fundamentally a team game played by five players. Wilt faced the most formidable competition of any superstar in NBA history throughout his career, always performing at or above his regular season level that his teammates, either injured or floundering, couldn't match. Much of the time, Wilt was losing to teams with a better SRS, the teams usually being apart of the greatest dynasty in NBA history. Therefore, he was regularly confronted with a steep mountain to climb.

Not only were his teams often the underdogs, but his teammates frequently grappled with injuries. Here are some examples:

1962: The Warriors lose on a last-second Sam Jones buzzer beater in Game 7. Tom Gola, their second-best player and exceptional defender, was essentially out for most of the series, playing only 107 minutes in 4 games. Wilt came close to defeating the Celtics here.

1965: Havlicek stole the ball. Larry Costello played through injury the entire series and averaged only 5 points per game. Another extremely close game was played without a key player.

So, his team's lack of talent was further exacerbated by injuries.

Looking at '68-'73, almost every post-season besides 1972 involved some kind of injury:

1968: Almost the entire starting lineup was injured and missing Billy Cunningham.
1969: Jerry West had a torn hamstring, and van Breda Kolff didn't put Wilt back in the game.
1970: Wilt returned early from a knee injury, and Jerry West played in the Finals with injuries to both his hands.
1971: Jerry West was out for the playoffs.
1973: Both Wilt and West were injured.

I'm not sure how much blame I can place on Wilt when, in many instances, a key player was either out or playing injured. These injuries are beyond Wilt's control. In the playoffs, he gave his teams a substantial boost, trying to overcome factors beyond his control like injuries and roster construction.

This is a rather drawn-out way of explaining why I don't center my arguments around championships, or the lack thereof, when determining a player's impact. A player can only play with the hand he's dealt and do his best to overcome adversity. Despite Wilt being plagued with untimely injuries and lackluster teammate performances, I believe he offered his team an unparalleled overall boost in every area of the game.

3. The Complexity of Comparing Wilt's Game to Modern Eras
Spoiler:
True, 70sFan. Not only that but I also think comparing Wilt's game with modern eras is a complex matter.

When analyzing these players it's important to think of the game without our benefit of hindsight. We can look back with a modern lens but they could not. A lot of rules that aided future players were not available to earlier eras.

For instance, dribble rules and overall spacing made finding cutters and anything other than jumpers significantly more difficult in the 1950s and 1960s. Refs were also harsher on travel calls. This is why the fast break was so popular as it was the easiest way to score with the spacing it provided before the defense was set. It was also more difficult because, as you know, the offensive foul rules and quick three in the key calls that refs would make. Creating your own offense in the half-court was not an easy thing to do back then and teams relied more on moving the ball around.

This leads into why Hannum implemented his "wheel offense" with Wilt, where players would constantly move around him in a wheel to keep the defense guessing and give Wilt options as a way to counteract how difficult it was to score in the half-court.

There is a substantial difference in the rules between what Wilt and guys like Jokic and Jordan played under. The rules in Wilt's time made it harder for a player to back a defender down and apply pressure and "generate offense" consistently.

I don't really care how Shaq played in 2000s, I don't care how Jokic is playing, I don't care how Hakeem or any other center outside of his era played because, to me, it doesn't matter. Wilt could only play within the confines of his rules and era. And within that era, with him playing that way, the team was the greatest offense ever. His passing and scoring must have been really valuable.

Although there are certainly instances where Wilt draws doubles and passes or hits cutters on film. I just don't find it fair to watch Jokic or someone else and then criticize Wilt for not playing similarly, because they played under separate rules where the game was thought of in different ways.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#10 » by One_and_Done » Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:46 pm

Vote: Shaq

Alternate: Magic

Nominate: Bird

Shaq had the best peak of these guys, with a surprising amount of longevity. Basically had about a 14 year prime. Overrated a little on D by some, and wouldn't have translated as well today, but still a positive on that end with his rim protection. His impact is just too huge for me not to have him here.

Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around by Shaq. All the bad chemistry issues Shaq brings? Wilt brings them too, but worse. I won't be voting Wilt top 10. For me it's between Bird and KD for my nomination probably.

Bird needs some consideration soon. Despite his lack of impressive longevity, his floor and ceiling raising is just too impressive, along with his ability to complement other players. The dude walked onto a 29 win team with a -4.78 SRS and immediately turned them into a 61 win and 7.37 SRS contender. That's just so hard to do. Yeh yeh, there were some other minor variations in players but none of it was much of a needle mover for mine. It was prinarily Bird's impact. He made the guys on his team better.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#11 » by 70sFan » Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:54 pm

One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

So you won't stop repeating these things, even despite the last thread discussion about it?
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#12 » by One_and_Done » Wed Jul 19, 2023 7:56 pm

70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

So you won't stop repeating these things, even despite the last thread discussion about it?

No, because as the extensive discussion prior to the project makes clear I do not agree with you RE: era. I have removed the ragdoll reference though as I said myself that may overstate it a little.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#13 » by 70sFan » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:07 pm

One_and_Done wrote:
70sFan wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:Wilt played in a terrible era, and would have been thrown around like a rag doll by Shaq.

So you won't stop repeating these things, even despite the last thread discussion about it?

No, because as the extensive discussion prior to the project makes clear I do not agree with you RE: era. I have removed the ragdoll reference though as I said myself that may overstate it a little.

Now that changes everything :D

I haven't heard the same criticism about Duncan for example, who at times was thrown around Shaq in reality... and Duncan was significantly smaller and less imposing physically than Wilt.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#14 » by One_and_Done » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:35 pm

Duncan is my GOAT defender and even he could only do so much. Don't care for Wilt's chances. Wilt at least had a few shots that would translate to the modern game, but he's being compared to Shaq here. A guy bigger and stronger than him.

Pace adjusted stats obviously nuke Wilt's advantages, before era adjustment eve kicks in. I'll be voting Magic, Bird, Curry, KG and even Durant above him.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:52 pm

Transplanting to the new thread since Wilt is still on the table.....

Bklynborn682 wrote:
Samurai wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Might have something to do with not wanting to rack up 5-6 offensive fouls before even reaching the 4th quarter. The game was officiated very differently then.
To put it plainly: Shaq wouldn’t have played with that bullish force/power in Wilt’s era either; because the officiating of the time simply didn’t permit it.

Could you imagine Shaq trying to play his bully ball style with someone like Earl Strom on the court?? Earl would have sent Shaq to the showers so fast Shaq would still be trying to figure out what the heck happened. :lol:

At any rate, I try to avoid knocking a player for the rules that were in place when they played. The players don't write the rules so it doesn't make sense to penalize them for it.

I know earl strom as a referee. but was he known for calling cheap offensive fouls or something?


I think he was just one of the more "strict" refs of the time (EDIT: or for better context, see Samurai's post last thread). It's not a jab at Strom himself, it's just a function of how it was officiated then.

Here are a couple examples.........

From '67 (not sure what is being called here; I think because he leaned in slightly with his shoulder before fading away):


Here's one from circa-1972 (not Wilt, but again gives the idea how different it was):



If I have time later, I might try to dig through my old game logs and see if I can find other examples.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#16 » by ijspeelman » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:55 pm

Comparing two completely different eras for two completely different players and not giving one the advantages the other would get seems a bit unfair.

Would Wilt be shutting down Shaq like he's nothing? No. No one could and that's fine. Could he be as good as Hakeem, Duncan, and Garnett against him? Possibly. He was a 7'1 and reportedly 275lb. With the benefits of today, I assume he'd be able to hold his own against Shaq as well as the other defensive greats of his time.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#17 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:56 pm

AEnigma wrote:
eminence wrote:On Magic - he got virtually eliminated prior to my vote last round so I didn't take much time on him, but I feel folks should examine how they feel about his longevity. Nobody has to, but he's a guy I'm going to give the edge to if it winds up feeling close due to the circumstances around how his career effectively ended after '91. Magic was a proven NBA great who wanted to play and was kept from the league due to a very unfortunate intersection of disease awareness/medical advancement/bigotry.

On Magic: gestured at this previously, but his GOAT path was comfortably ahead of Jordan’s pace when he was forced into retirement. Magic was securely better at basically every age until their respective age 23 (per basketball-reference here because both have birthdays after the data cutoff) seasons. And while I am sure many would prefer 1987-90 Jordan to 1983-87 Magic (I am more mixed on the question), by that point Magic had four rings and three Finals MVPs to Jordan’s zero. Jordan makes up ground from 1991-93… but then he retires while Magic has a phenomenal age 31 season. So at the time of Jordan’s first retirement, even if the public prefers his high octane scoring and had already crowned him the greatest guard in league history, he has no real accomplishment advantage over Magic (nor would I say he was as tied to his team’s success). For me, it was not until 1997 where the totality of Jordan’s career probably had surpassed Magic’s career, and then 1998 (plus signs of a higher level aging curve in 2002/03) was what created a full tier of separation between the two.

For how most of us approach this exercise, minutes and longevity hold Magic back. Even then, I find myself considering Oscar — the greatest guard before these two arrived. Around ten thousand more minutes played. Second highest minute load throughout his career (by far), behind only notorious exception Wilt. In presence, he offered more to his teams than Magic ever did, or possibly even would have without the stigma of the time. And yet I prefer Magic without a second thought, because that is how much better he played the position. The Lakers for his entire career were a ~7.5 net rating team. 900 games at that level, and then regularly mediocre without him (despite decent enough replacements). Very similar circumstances to Tim Duncan, except with a potentially (likely) even better aging curve.

I do not know whom I want to pick first between Wilt and Magic, but it does leave a sour taste knowing that if I pick Wilt it will ultimately be because Magic’s league could not tolerate him on the court being all HIV infected and whatnot.


Note:

MJ's age 35 season he was contending for best in the world. While Magic in his age 36 season probably was an all-star level guy (all-nba at best). Just saying.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#18 » by penbeast0 » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:57 pm

Vote: Wilt
Runner up vote: Shaq
Nominate: Mikan


Why Wilt? It seems to me that Wilt was far and away the most individually dominant player in the history of the league. He could play any center role and win any head to head matchup. With good coaches, that translated into great playoff success against everyone but Bill Russell. Again, outside of games against the Celtics, his playoff series winning percentage is over 80%.

He was the most dominant scorer ever when they needed him to score. Consistently going all game without a rest, he posted a 50 ppg season and others over 35 (in a faster paced league). And he did it consistently coming in 1st or 2nd in the league in shooting efficiency. His only weakness was his FT shooting. Shaq has similar strengths and weaknesses plus he played in the 21st century but while the overall league strength was much higher in the modern era, I'm not sure that's true of center. Wilt faced Russell in the playoffs, the greatest defensive force in NBA history, 10 times in his 14 years of play. The smaller league made the concentration of talent at the center position (the easiest to recognize) much greater with players like Walt Bellamy, Clyde Lovellette, and Walter Dukes, then Nate Thurmond and Zelmo Beaty, then Willis Reed, Wes Unseld, Elvin Hayes, Kareem, etc. such that roughly a 3rd of the centers he faced were generally HOF talents. Shaq played his best years in a league where David Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, etc. were retired or close to it and the generation of Dwight Howard, Amare, etc. had not yet come into being. His only true HOF competition in his 3 peat years among the 28 other teams were post-injury David Robinson (Duncan was playing mainly PF), Mourning, and Mutombo with 2000 with the next best being Vlade Divac, Theo Ratliff, Dale Davis, Antonio Davis, and Ben Wallace with each only making 1 All-Star team and only Wallace getting a 3rd team All-NBA look.

He was one of the great rebounders, leading the league 11 times in 15 years (helped by his ridiculous minute totals, but also while conserving energy to play those minutes). Again, an area where the other great centers left (Shaq and Hakeem) were not generally the best of their era.
He turned himself into a post passer who led the league in total assists once (though both Shaq and Hakeem developed good post passing games, they passed far less as they continued to focus mainly on scoring). His shotblocking, from the sample size we have, would probably make him the all-time leader in blocks if extrapolated out. He was coachable for good coaches (he had some bad ones), changing his entire game for Alex Hannum and Bill Sharman.

And, he was the greatest physical freak combining size and athleticism in the history of the game as well, with only Shaq coming close. I find it hard to believe that he wouldn't be one of the two best players in the game in any era, including today. He was that great an outlier.

The arguments against him are his losses to Russell and the Celtics. Since I have Russell as my GOAT, that's a factor. If you think the Celtics were loaded with talent every year, then that mitigates as well. But either way, it's a real issue. Again, his record v. everyone else in the playoffs stacks up as better than LeBron, Jordan, Kareem, Duncan, or anyone not named Bill Russell. The other knock is that his great scoring didn't translate into great team Ortg. Again, a very legit criticism and the reason I haven't voted for him higher. Bad coaches are a partial explanation; they saw his individual dominance and just parked him in the post and told the team to throw everything in to him in the half court. Modern analytics have shown this to be an inefficient model for a team even when the individual numbers suggest it to be correct. Normally I'm a huge advocate for looking at team results to show how great an individual is, but I just can't get away from Wilt's ability to dominate like few others ever.

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IN terms of next, Magic led great offenses year in and year out, albeit with some of the most stacked teams in NBA history around him (truly stacked offensively, unlike the hit and miss offensive talent of the defensively focused Russell Celtics). The greatest guard left, nearly as far above his era and West/Oscar. That said, I will probably go with Shaq for my runner up vote. He was the most physically dominant modern player I have ever see, even more than LeBron, and his gravity and unstoppability (not a real word) were almost as unreal as Wilt's.

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I've made no secret that I don't use the "what if they put them in a time machine and magically transported them to today line of analysis. Mikan is easily, without a question, the most dominant player left. I have not supported him to this point because, I don't use a simple dominance factor either, but instead adjust for era and Mikan's was a pretty weak era.

Other names I would consider in terms of creating the best discussion: West/Oscar (Wilt/Russell dominated their era, those two dominated other guards by huge amounts but that's not quite the same), Durant/Giannis (the best modern player not yet nominated if the modern era is indeed that far beyond earlier ones.
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Wed Jul 19, 2023 8:59 pm

Repeating my vote post from last thread, with just a couple little edits......


I'm reasonably set on my pick [Wilt]: a dominant [at least some years, good in others] defensive force who was also capable of leading the league in scoring on GOOD shooting efficiency (did so seven times, in fact). They widened the lane after '62 [to 16 feet, where it remains to this day] in effort to curb his scoring dominance; he led the league [a league that contained West and Robertson] for the next four years regardless. He did this is a league where the lane was far more congested [no 3pt line] and he couldn't power through people they way Shaq was allowed to (see transplanted discussion in post #15 above). That warrants consideration.

He was as high as 2nd in the league in apg in another year, though admittedly his assists are of the very stationary "vanilla" (or "Rondo") variety.
He failed to win as much as we might hope or expect, though had some decidedly bad luck with teammate injuries or bed-wetting in at least a couple years, not to mention he was up against the premiere dynasty of the sport's history through most of his career. At the helm of that dynasty was his rival and quintessential comparison, for whom both media and fans [both at the time and still to this day] ask the question, "who was better?"

That rival was already voted in not one, not two, but THREE places ago.
In my own gauging formulas (which admittedly have some box inputs), Wilt consistently ranks either 4th or 5th all-time (usually 4th). I'm toying with some season-by-season "player tier" ratings [in a vacuum] to use in a CORP format, and then weighting that against an era-strength assessment; he comes in 6th for me there.

As to his personality, temperament, off-court qualities.......well, there's a lot of divergent information on the topic. ZeppelinPage provided multiple positive accounts and a lot of context for his career; I believe Doctor MJ provided some counterpoints, though I've not had a chance to read it. Someone else brought up some evidence that Wilt wanted out of Philly even while Hannum was still around, too.
So I'm not 100% sure where I stand on these things. But nonetheless, with Russell already off the table, Wilt still ends up my pick.

The only guy super-close for me is another physical freak and dominant big: Shaq. I could be convinced to swap them, though don't think I'll have time before deadline. Besides, Wilt seems the more "strategic" pick, based on sentiment so far.


VOTE: Wilt Chamberlain
Alternate: Shaquille O'Neal
Nomination: Kobe Bryant
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Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #7 (Deadline 11:59 PM EST on 7/21/23) 

Post#20 » by eminence » Wed Jul 19, 2023 9:17 pm

What year do folks lean towards for Magic overtaking Kareem?
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