Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition

[TimberKat]

2. The suns can't give Ayton away for free. The Wizards didn't get a single 1st round pick or rotation player on a decent contract back for their supermaxed star player. Teams with spending space under the tax are going to have a big advantage when it comes to adding middle tier players to their supporting cast. Teams with tax problems are going to be letting go/salary dumping some of those same guys for nothing. That is my takeaway from the new CBA.

4. KAT is going to make 35% of the cap starting in 2024. The difference between his 8% raise and the 10% raise in the cap is miniscule, and that's assuming the cap keeps going up and we don't have another financial crisis or WWIII.

Pacer sign Ayton to a max contract to replace Turner, so, I wouldn't say they can't give him away. I am sure HOU would take him.

Beal forced his way to Suns and Wizards end up with: Poole; 2030 first-round pick (top 20 protected); 2024 first-round pick swap; 2024 second-round pick; 2025 second-round pick; 2026 first-round pick swap; 2026 second-round pick; 2027 second-round pick; another 2027 second-round pick; 2028 first-round pick swap; 2028 second-round pick; 2030 first-round pick swap; 2030 second-round pick. That is still a whole bunch of Powerball tickets if you are into that stuff. They did get one 1st round pick. The 2028 and 2030 swap could play big, we will check back in 7 years. Poole is a 20pt starter and could turn into another 2 1st potentially. He starts at 28M and is lock up for 5 years, not cheap but not too bad.

A max for vet is 30% and super max is 35%. Using a 10% cap raise smoothing. Towns supermax in year 4 is 33% and year 5 is 32.5% (which means we will be paying him 6.3 Mil over max, so fairly manageable). There is no question caps are going up with the new TV deal. If they don't want a big jump, it will go up for the next 5 years unless we get hit with Covid 2.0. WW3? (you worry too much )

[younggunsmn]

Thought experiment: Conley hits unrestricted free agency next summer.
How many teams are interested in him and what are they willing and able to spend?
I think he has a huge market. For the same reasons we love him, many teams both contending and rebuilding would absolutely love to sign him. Perfect veteran mentor to Victor and Tre in San Antonion for example or OKC/Portland for their young guards.
All teams who will have plenty of money to spend.
Miami, New Orleans, Chicago, Clippers, Toronto, Memphis, possibly Philly, Utah.
Some teams would be limited to the 5 mil taxpayer MLE, but others would have raw cap room.
I think his market in that scenario is easily the non-taxpayer MLE, so 13 million or so, unless he misses most of the season to injury or his play falls off a cliff. I think almost every team in the league would be thrilled to give him the 5 mil taxpayer MLE.
His play was absolutely stellar at the end of last season and in the playoffs, and not just for a player of his age.

You might be right. But I see so many other PGs in the same mold, many of which are 5 or 10 years younger than Conley. While Conley is arguably still better than most of them today, I think those teams may struggle to choose the aging Conley over them.

I agree. If Conley himself was right when he said it takes a year to get used to passing to Gobert, then he has extra value to whatever team has Rudy. If people want a good citizen, team first vet to be a role model .. well, he’s an inferior player, but let’s see what Austin Rivers gets.

Austin Rivers? The glorified towel waver? Is he supposed to teach young players how to have an NBA coach for a dad?

Conley still has tremendous ON COURT value and is playing smart basketball at a high level on both ends of the court.
At 35 he is still one of the better players in the league at navigating the screen game on defense and maybe the best in the league at taking care of the ball.
He can both help young players win and teach them about life and the game.

Look at what he was doing with Utah last year before he got traded, they had a strong chance at making the playoffs had they kept him and not started purposefully tanking.

[younggunsmn]

2. The suns can't give Ayton away for free. The Wizards didn't get a single 1st round pick or rotation player on a decent contract back for their supermaxed star player. Teams with spending space under the tax are going to have a big advantage when it comes to adding middle tier players to their supporting cast. Teams with tax problems are going to be letting go/salary dumping some of those same guys for nothing. That is my takeaway from the new CBA.

4. KAT is going to make 35% of the cap starting in 2024. The difference between his 8% raise and the 10% raise in the cap is miniscule, and that's assuming the cap keeps going up and we don't have another financial crisis or WWIII.

Pacer sign Ayton to a max contract to replace Turner, so, I wouldn't say they can't give him away. I am sure HOU would take him.

Beal forced his way to Suns and Wizards end up with: Poole; 2030 first-round pick (top 20 protected); 2024 first-round pick swap; 2024 second-round pick; 2025 second-round pick; 2026 first-round pick swap; 2026 second-round pick; 2027 second-round pick; another 2027 second-round pick; 2028 first-round pick swap; 2028 second-round pick; 2030 first-round pick swap; 2030 second-round pick. That is still a whole bunch of Powerball tickets if you are into that stuff. They did get one 1st round pick. The 2028 and 2030 swap could play big, we will check back in 7 years. Poole is a 20pt starter and could turn into another 2 1st potentially. He starts at 28M and is lock up for 5 years, not cheap but not too bad.

A max for vet is 30% and super max is 35%. Using a 10% cap raise smoothing. Towns supermax in year 4 is 33% and year 5 is 32.5% (which means we will be paying him 6.3 Mil over max, so fairly manageable). There is no question caps are going up with the new TV deal. If they don't want a big jump, it will go up for the next 5 years unless we get hit with Covid 2.0. WW3? (you worry too much )

Suns essentially tried to give Ayton away this offseason and found no takers.
That 2030 pick is so protected its near worthless. Poole is a salary dump no one wants him at that contract.

Simply assuming revenues are going to keep skyrocketing is bad business, even were there not so many scary things going on in the world.

[TimberKat]

2. The suns can't give Ayton away for free. The Wizards didn't get a single 1st round pick or rotation player on a decent contract back for their supermaxed star player. Teams with spending space under the tax are going to have a big advantage when it comes to adding middle tier players to their supporting cast. Teams with tax problems are going to be letting go/salary dumping some of those same guys for nothing. That is my takeaway from the new CBA.

4. KAT is going to make 35% of the cap starting in 2024. The difference between his 8% raise and the 10% raise in the cap is miniscule, and that's assuming the cap keeps going up and we don't have another financial crisis or WWIII.

Pacer sign Ayton to a max contract to replace Turner, so, I wouldn't say they can't give him away. I am sure HOU would take him.

Beal forced his way to Suns and Wizards end up with: Poole; 2030 first-round pick (top 20 protected); 2024 first-round pick swap; 2024 second-round pick; 2025 second-round pick; 2026 first-round pick swap; 2026 second-round pick; 2027 second-round pick; another 2027 second-round pick; 2028 first-round pick swap; 2028 second-round pick; 2030 first-round pick swap; 2030 second-round pick. That is still a whole bunch of Powerball tickets if you are into that stuff. They did get one 1st round pick. The 2028 and 2030 swap could play big, we will check back in 7 years. Poole is a 20pt starter and could turn into another 2 1st potentially. He starts at 28M and is lock up for 5 years, not cheap but not too bad.

A max for vet is 30% and super max is 35%. Using a 10% cap raise smoothing. Towns supermax in year 4 is 33% and year 5 is 32.5% (which means we will be paying him 6.3 Mil over max, so fairly manageable). There is no question caps are going up with the new TV deal. If they don't want a big jump, it will go up for the next 5 years unless we get hit with Covid 2.0. WW3? (you worry too much )

Suns essentially tried to give Ayton away this offseason and found no takers.
That 2030 pick is so protected its near worthless. Poole is a salary dump no one wants him at that contract.

Simply assuming revenues are going to keep skyrocketing is bad business, even were there not so many scary things going on in the world.

Where did you get the idea Suns tried to give Ayton away?

You wanted to trade Towns for picks, how many of those picks that you get back are essentially pick 20+ which are "worthless". How do you know that no one wants Poole? I think you can easily turn him into 1 or 2 1st round picks.

It's a fact that the salary cap will jump with the new contract. If you want to smooth it out, it will rise in multiple years. That is the definition of cap smoothing.

[younggunsmn]

I was widely reported that the Suns offered Ayton around the league asking very little in return and found no takers.

The Warriors took Chris Paul's terrible expiring contract for dumping Poole and sent picks with him as incentive.
That's the definition of being a bad contract.
He's completely one dimensional and wasn't even particularly good at that one dimension last year.

That pick is top 20 protected for one year, then turns into a 2nd. Not real valuable.
It's not about where it lands, it's that there's a strong chance they never get it.

You have me confused with someone else who wants to trade KAT for picks.
If we trade KAT I want players/picks we can both win now with and still help us in 3 years for prime Ant and Jaden.

Sometimes it seems to me you are more interested in playing gotcha than having a discussion.

It may rise. It may fall. We may be taking wheelbarrows to the ATM to buy bread. The future is unwritten.

It doesn't change the present perception of KAT's contract around the league.

Assuming your cap smoothing 10% bump every year best case scenario:
KAT
2024 - 52.44 million - 35% of cap
2025 - 56.64 million - 34.36% of cap
2026 - 61.17 million - 33.74% of cap
2027 - 66.06 million - 33.12% of cap
Total 4 years/236.31 million

He will cost more than a standard 7 year max (30%) his entire contract no matter what, and significantly more than a 0-6 max (25%).

This is not me demanding KAT be traded.
This is me trying to show you the financial reality that has people around the league whispering about us having to eventually trade him.

[frankenwolf]

This is me trying to show you the financial reality that has people around the league whispering about us having to eventually trade him figure it out.

There, that is what is being said. Everyone seemingly thinks we need to trade KAT to avoid the horrible, terrible, no good, rotten 2nd apron. However, it is not necessary to trade KAT. It has been floated to trade Gobert. When this team wins the NBA championship in 2024, what makes anyone think we won't run it back again? Because of the dreaded 2nd apron? At this point, according to Sportrac, the Timberwolves would have approximately $160,936,000 tied up in 10 players. This doesn't have Jaden's signing or Mike Conely. I am by no means an expert or even have a decent passing knowledge of the cap logistics, but based on what I have found, we will be approximately 12 million under the first apron with those 10 players

[younggunsmn]

You should check out the capology thread. A lot of different scenarios are laid out along with the new luxury tax brackets.
We would basically have to lose conley and anderson and fill out the roster with minimums to sneak under the 2nd apron.

But it is the tax that is extra punitive.
With reasonable contracts for Jaden, Conley, and Slo Mo, say 25/10/10, the luxury tax on that roster approaches 150 million, which is 10% of the purchase value of the franchise for just one season.
Just Conley and Jaden + running it back would be 80-90 million.

Even letting conley go, and barely sneaking under the 2nd apron, it's over 40 million, plus losing our cut of the non taxpayer pie.

I was nervous about the lost opportunities for crossing the 2nd apron, but the escalating rates after you get past the first 15-20 million are far more punitive for a market like this in my opinion.

Gobert is not tradeable in a salary dump right now without adding value.
Maybe he has a great season and that changes.
It's KAT or Jaden right now if you need to pull the financial ripcord.

[TimberKat]

I was widely reported that the Suns offered Ayton around the league asking very little in return and found no takers.

Yes, I see you were widely reporting it Seriously, all the reports I read were Suns didn't want to trade Ayton (let alone giving him away) https://clutchpoints.com/nba-rumors-suns-deandre-ayton-trade-decision-bradley-beal-chris-paul
I can see dealing with 3 max/supermax deal, it will be interesting to see how they deal with 4 next year but I won't worry about them not finding a trade partner. You are way under valuing centers.

The Warriors took Chris Paul's terrible expiring contract for dumping Poole and sent picks with him as incentive.
That's the definition of being a bad contract.
He's completely one dimensional and wasn't even particularly good at that one dimension last year.

How is Chris Paul a bad contract if he is only paid 30M. For reference - Lowry is at 29M, Conley at 24M. Paul is only a bad contract for Wizards because they aren't in win now mode.

That pick is top 20 protected for one year, then turns into a 2nd. Not real valuable.
It's not about where it lands, it's that there's a strong chance they never get it.

Not exactly true: Because draft picks can’t be protected more than seven years out, the Warriors’ top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick won’t roll over to 2031 if it doesn’t convey in ’30. The exact terms of the protection aren’t yet known, but I [author of article] expect Washington will instead receive Golden State’s 2030 second-rounder if that first-rounder lands in the top 20.

Sometimes it seems to me you are more interested in playing gotcha than having a discussion.

I only catch those facts that are incorrect which leads to incorrect conclusion. As an example, I believe you stated we have an impending disaster with salary cap because of Towns' contract. That is simply not true. You don't have to like KAT and I won't debate you on it. I do enjoy your post and you had corrected me on some facts. However, we shouldn't twist facts (or ensure the facts are correct) to fit an opinion.

Assuming your cap smoothing 10% bump every year best case scenario:
KAT
2024 - 52.44 million - 35% of cap
2025 - 56.64 million - 34.36% of cap
2026 - 61.17 million - 33.74% of cap
2027 - 66.06 million - 33.12% of cap
Total 4 years/236.31 million

I posted my numbers and is differ by a mil or two. I believe you compounded Towns salary but didn't compound cap raise. Doesn't matter, a vet max is 30% and supermax is 35%. He will be in the middle. I don't mind paid him Max/Supermax. Just like you don't mind paid 30M to Jaden. I believe Towns will have a good season next year and worth the money. It's opinion and not hard fact we must trade him or Gobert

This is me trying to show you the financial reality that has people around the league whispering about us having to eventually trade him.

Do you have inside information of what real league people are thinking? Or is it just out of town reporters saying things their reader wants to hear. I am sure everyone read a lot of "national media" saying how bad Wolves, Towns, Gobert are. As soon as they leave, they are view as savior for xyz team. I am surprised that Vanderbilt didn't get voted in as DPOY. So, I listen to their rationale and facts of their "report" to ensure they aren't just a reverb of chatGPT.

[fattymcgee]

Its beyond obvious that KAT is going to be traded more then likely in the next week or two.You can get more value moving him this off season then next.Anyone with half a brain knows we can't keep ANT,Towns,Gobert,McDaniels together when three are on MAX deals that really kick in for the '24 season and McDaniels more then likely making $20M-$25M per year.

ideally we could find away to trade both Towns & Gobert and get back and all-star level talent in their 20's that can be a tag team partner with ANT moving forward. I think the ideal way to build a team going forward is having two MAX or Super MAX guys only and building the rest of the roster around them on none overpriced deals.

I would look at the likes of SGA,Brown,Ingram,Maxey...ect as the type of player to pair with ANT moving forward(yes I know harder to pull off without picks but teams would be interested in Towns & McDaniels)

Just wanted to update the obvious from 7/3.

[shrink]

I had this discussion with Klomp last week on the Trade Board when a fan from another forum asked about trading for Josh Minott. I know Minott and Naz are fan favorites so I expect this to be unpopular, but I think it’s an interesting thought exercise - shrink

Now, I think this [the Naz signing] could have diverted Connelly’s plan a bit. There is no doubt they are high on Minott, but as your correctly point out, the minutes this year will be limited with Naz there. They also lucked into Leonard Miller, who could be a rapidly rising big man himself, a year behind Minott in development. Now, it’s possible if they don’t need Minott this year, they might cash him in, and help monetize Connelly’s ability to find talent in the second round. It’s also possible that signing Naz and keeping Minott could create a soft landing spot if they trade Towns, but there is nothing here suggesting they want to trade him now - I think a decision might be made at the deadline, after they get a better look at the team.

Bottom line is I could see Minott get traded, even if the front office and fans feel a little sting from giving him up.

Interesting thought exercise, but I don't agree with it. Where I think this potentially diverts plans is moving off of some of our higher-priced veterans, such as Taurean Prince this season and potentially Kyle Anderson next season, without having to worry about losing them for nothing because you've stockpiled youth in Minott, Miller, etc.

I believe that young players/draftee’s lose trade value when they aren’t given minutes, and the clock immediately starts ticking on their first free agent deal. I think the Wolves will do all they can to give available minutes to Naz Reid, in addition to Gobert, Towns, and Kyle Anderson. In last week’s interview with Dane Moore, Chris Finch said the “cheat code to winning in the NBA is to get your best players on the floor.” Doing that will likely mean Minott gets DNP-CD’s in many games.

Looking down the road for the Wolves, I think there are two likely scenarios. First, the Wolves could be mediocre at the deadline, and they would put KAT a on the market. Second, the Wolves are successful, play out the season, and, painfully, are unable to afford Kyle Anderson. In both situations, they end up with three good bigs, and minutes are created for Naz Reid. Also in both situations, a fourth big really isn’t needed until next year, and hopefully that could be the rapidly rising Leonard Miller, who’s just starting his Hinkie Special.

If this was a heartless video game, I think the player to trade would be young Naz Reid, to open fourth-big minutes for Minott. Naz got his minutes last season with Towns’ injury, and he’s signed to a deal less than the MLE, so he’s got some trade value. However, it feels to me like Naz is a Wolves success story, and he is well-liked by fans, the front office, and players like Ant (who apparently talked to Naz and Tim Connelly several times encouraging him to stay). I think Naz stays put (as a better cushion if KAT is traded).

Finally, I would add that I don’t predict either Naz or Minott to be traded this year. However, to accumulate future draft assets and weaponize Tim Connelly’s ability to find talent in the draft, I think he should consider this to profit on the edges.

[TimberKat]

I had this discussion with Klomp last week on the Trade Board when a fan from another forum asked about trading for Josh Minott. I know Minott and Naz are fan favorites so I expect this to be unpopular, but I think it’s an interesting thought exercise - shrink

Interesting thought exercise, but I don't agree with it. Where I think this potentially diverts plans is moving off of some of our higher-priced veterans, such as Taurean Prince this season and potentially Kyle Anderson next season, without having to worry about losing them for nothing because you've stockpiled youth in Minott, Miller, etc.

I believe that young players/draftee’s lose trade value when they aren’t given minutes, and the clock immediately starts ticking on their first free agent deal. I think the Wolves will do all they can to give available minutes to Naz Reid, in addition to Gobert, Towns, and Kyle Anderson. In last week’s interview with Dane Moore, Chris Finch said the “cheat code to winning in the NBA is to get your best players on the floor.” Doing that will likely mean Minott gets DNP-CD’s in many games.

Looking down the road for the Wolves, I think there are two likely scenarios. First, the Wolves could be mediocre at the deadline, and they would put KAT a on the market. Second, the Wolves are successful, play out the season, and, painfully, are unable to afford Kyle Anderson. In both situations, they end up with three good bigs, and minutes are created for Naz Reid. Also in both situations, a fourth big really isn’t needed until next year, and hopefully that could be the rapidly rising Leonard Miller, who’s just starting his Hinkie Special.

If this was a heartless video game, I think the player to trade would be young Naz Reid, to open fourth-big minutes for Minott. Naz got his minutes last season with Towns’ injury, and he’s signed to a deal less than the MLE, so he’s got some trade value. However, it feels to me like Naz is a Wolves success story, and he is well-liked by fans, the front office, and players like Ant (who apparently talked to Naz and Tim Connelly several times encouraging him to stay). I think Naz stays put (as a better cushion if KAT is traded).

Finally, I would add that I don’t predict either Naz or Minott to be traded this year. However, to accumulate future draft assets and weaponize Tim Connelly’s ability to find talent in the draft, I think he should consider this to profit on the edges.

I hope either Minott or Miller would take KA's spot in 2024. I expect we trade Naz instead of Gobert/Towns to get someone to replace Conley (my mythical 30M player that is like the good DLo), it's business dealing with salary cap. Who goes will all depends on how the year play out.

[TimberKat]

Here is an article on how Gobert's punch changed the course of NBA (For Want of a Nail), It's stuff we discussed before and why I am bullish on next season.

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/rudy_goberts_punch_changed_the_course_of_the_nba/s1_13132_39054748

[Dalvin]

Here is an article on how Gobert's punch changed the course of NBA (For Want of a Nail), It's stuff we discussed before and why I am bullish on next season.

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/rudy_goberts_punch_changed_the_course_of_the_nba/s1_13132_39054748

I have pretty much the same sentiments and why I'm also positive for next season

[shrink]

https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401539672

Towns was unbelievable for the first three quarters. I think he only missed one shot, but he just ran out of gas. His critics always say how he sucks in the playoffs, and Ant brings it - the opposite was true that night. It was more than Gobert’s punch - we were missing Rudy, McDaniels or Naz. The most frustrating part was that MIN played a whole season, but if they scored a single point more in regulation .. one point .. then people, including our own fans, would judge our team completely differently.

[Klomp]

Just for added perspective on the salary cap and how different it is now.

In 2024-25, Edwards, Towns and Gobert are slated to make roughly 90% of the $142,000,000 salary cap.
In 2003-04, Garnett and Sprewell made roughly 95% of the $43,840,000 salary cap.

[TimberKat]

Just for added perspective on the salary cap and how different it is now.

In 2024-25, Edwards, Towns and Gobert are slated to make roughly 90% of the $142,000,000 salary cap.
In 2003-04, Garnett and Sprewell made roughly 95% of the $43,840,000 salary cap.

Yes, good point. Also, every good teams are going over the cap and have at least 2 max contracts. It would be great if we could trade Towns for SGA but you can't. So, he is our best option if you to win now.

[younggunsmn]

Just for added perspective on the salary cap and how different it is now.

In 2024-25, Edwards, Towns and Gobert are slated to make roughly 90% of the $142,000,000 salary cap.
In 2003-04, Garnett and Sprewell made roughly 95% of the $43,840,000 salary cap.

Interesting, I had forgotten about that.
Something along the lines of Garnett was still on a deal grandfathered into the new max salary rules and was making a good deal more than he would have otherwise been entitled to. Adds some perspective to how hard it was to build around him for all those years.

We take it for granted now that most teams can keep their draft picks who work out and sign them to 2nd contracts, it used to be a lot harder to do that.

[younggunsmn]

For what it's worth, next summer when you can use the MLE to trade for players, Naz Reid's salary will be just a hair too much to fit into that (by 300k or so if cap goes up 10%).

I really want Naz here long term, but I thought about the prospect of trading him to a team with raw cap space and getting draft compensation back next summer as a way to cut salary.
That will still be possible, the number of teams that could make that happen will just be smaller.

[Norseman79]

Naz isn't leaving unless they want a pissed off Ant. It will be Rudy or Karl if anyone

[TimberKat]

Naz isn't leaving unless they want a pissed off Ant. It will be Rudy or Karl if anyone

I hope there is better dynamics between Ant and Gobert/Towns this year. Maybe the triple towers works out well. Will be an interesting year.