Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[NatP4]

I don’t think the odds are necessarily based on the teams talent level, but what is perceived as the team’s strategy this year. Vegas thinks the Wizards are going to tank. I don’t see it as a slight; they are betting that the Wizards tank and tank early.

I'm curious what happens as we get closer to the season if that number goes up. If I were a betting man, I'd place the over. Jones/Kuzma/Poole, these guys aren't all-stars but they're not scrubs either and will keep us in games.

I think a big issue will be depth.

If we keep Shamet, Wright and Gallinari, we will have the depth to overcome the usual injuries one expects over the course of a regular season. But if we dump those guys before the season starts, we will have no margin for error. In that scenario, if Tyus Jones or Jordan Poole misses 25 games, we will probably lose 20 of them.

I think the depth is a strength. Guys like Gallinari and Muscala were big time positive impact role players in their careers. Avdija will be one of the best bench players in the league. I’m confident Davis and Coulibaly will be net positive guys in low usage roles. Cooks is a solid 3rd string guy. Wright and Shamet are solid.

Most of our “badness” will come from the high usage guys. Poole&Kuzma is probably the worst 1-2 high usage punch in the league. Certainly much worse than Porzingis&Beal. Much worse than Keldon Johnson&Wemby.

[DCZards]

I don’t think the odds are necessarily based on the teams talent level, but what is perceived as the team’s strategy this year. Vegas thinks the Wizards are going to tank. I don’t see it as a slight; they are betting that the Wizards tank and tank early.

This is a very good point. I think there's a strong perception that the Zards are tanking, which isn't necessarily the case. I don't believe that tanking is the strategy or plan of Winger & Co. I think that led by Kuz, Poole and Jones, and with decent contributions from Kispert, Deni, and two or three others, the Zards could easily be 30-32 win team.

The only vet off the bench I really trust is Wright (and possibly Shamet.) You can't depend on the oft-injured Gallo (over the last 14 seasons he's averaged less than 55 games a season) and, other than sticking an occasional 3, Muscala is not very good.

I like some of the youth on the bench, particularly Bilal and Davis, but I don't expect either of them to move the needle very much this season.

[nate33]

I don’t think the odds are necessarily based on the teams talent level, but what is perceived as the team’s strategy this year. Vegas thinks the Wizards are going to tank. I don’t see it as a slight; they are betting that the Wizards tank and tank early.

This is a very good point. I think there's a strong perception is that the Zards are tanking, which isn't necessarily the case...and I don't believe that tanking is the strategy or plan of Winger & Co. I think that led by Kuz, Poole and Jones, and with decent contributions from Kispert, Deni, and two three others, the Zards are a 30-32 win team.

I think Vegas is right.

The Wizards won't start the season with the intent to tank because that is demoralizing to everyone involved. But as they fall behind the pack and find themselves in 12th or 13th place 40 games into the season, the coaches will start playing more young guys and less vets. Vukcevic will play over Muscala. PBJ over Gallinari. Coulibaly over Shamet. Rollins over Wright. We will probably trade away any vets with value by the Trade Deadline. And then the last 20 games will be much more blatant tanking: Kuzma will have a "sore knee"; Tyus Jones will miss some games due to "back soreness".

If the sole goal was to win as many games as possible, I agree that 30-32 wins would be a possibility. But there are multiple agendas, with player development higher on the priority list than winning. I expect them to lose at least 5 or 6 more games more than they otherwise would win if they had winning as the sole priority. So if you are thinking 30-32 wins, bet on 24-27.

[DCZards]

I don’t think the odds are necessarily based on the teams talent level, but what is perceived as the team’s strategy this year. Vegas thinks the Wizards are going to tank. I don’t see it as a slight; they are betting that the Wizards tank and tank early.

This is a very good point. I think there's a strong perception is that the Zards are tanking, which isn't necessarily the case...and I don't believe that tanking is the strategy or plan of Winger & Co. I think that led by Kuz, Poole and Jones, and with decent contributions from Kispert, Deni, and two three others, the Zards are a 30-32 win team.

I think Vegas is right.

The Wizards won't start the season with the intent to tank because that is demoralizing to everyone involved. But as they fall behind the pack and find themselves in 12th or 13th place 40 games into the season, the coaches will start playing more young guys and less vets. Vukcevic will play over Muscala. PBJ over Gallinari. Coulibaly over Shamet. Rollins over Wright. We will probably trade away any vets with value by the Trade Deadline. And then the last 20 games will be much more blatant tanking: Kuzma will have a "sore knee"; Tyus Jones will miss some games due to "back soreness".

If the sole goal was to win as many games as possible, I agree that 30-32 wins would be a possibility. But there are multiple agendas, with player development higher on the priority list than winning. I expect them to lose at least 5 or 6 more games more than they otherwise would win if they had winning as the sole priority. So if you are thinking 30-32 wins, bet on 24-27.

I agree that with a bad start the Zards would—and should—focus on developing the youngins’ rather than winning games. That would in effect be tanking. But it all depends on whether they get off to a bad start or a decent start with, say, 17 or 18 wins after 40 games.

However, it is very likely that the Zards will struggle early on with all of the new parts (particularly Poole & Jones).

[Hidden Eye]

I don’t think the odds are necessarily based on the teams talent level, but what is perceived as the team’s strategy this year. Vegas thinks the Wizards are going to tank. I don’t see it as a slight; they are betting that the Wizards tank and tank early.

This is a very good point. I think there's a strong perception that the Zards are tanking, which isn't necessarily the case. I don't believe that tanking is the strategy or plan of Winger & Co. I think that led by Kuz, Poole and Jones, and with decent contributions from Kispert, Deni, and two or three others, the Zards could easily be 30-32 win team.

The only vet off the bench I really trust is Wright (and possibly Shamet.) You can't depend on the oft-injured Gallo (over the last 14 seasons he's averaged less than 55 games a season) and, other than sticking an occasional 3, Muscala is not very good.

I like some of the youth on the bench, particularly Bilal and Davis, but I don't expect either of them to move the needle very much this season.

Davis isn't going to struggle playing the 2nd unit, his role isn't going to be massive pressure the whole game minutes hes playing. Bilal is because of Shamet being on the team still forcing him to play PF, Kispert going to take the SF slot.

Wright and Shamet both can't be on the roster. Trade to a Western Conference team for a draft pick.

[nate33]

I really like the signing of Jared Butler to a 2-way contract. I'll never understand why Utah got rid of him so quickly. Fortunately, when he left Utah, he got picked up by OKC, who just doesn't have enough roster spots at guard for him.

I predict that he will quickly displace Rollins on the depth chart. Wright is going to be moved at some point, and when he does, Butler will start getting regular minutes.

[FAH1223]

I really like the signing of Jared Butler to a 2-way contract. I'll never understand why Utah got rid of him so quickly. Fortunately, when he left Utah, he got picked up by OKC, who just doesn't have enough roster spots at guard for him.

I predict that he will quickly displace Rollins on the depth chart. Wright is going to be moved at some point, and when he does, Butler will start getting regular minutes.

Dawkins was involved with picking him up from the Jazz too.

OKC is going to have to make tough subtractions. Not enough roster spots.

[Dat2U]

Wiz are absoutely built to tank and tank forseeable future. Its full blown delusion to think the roster could do anything else but lose and lose badly.

I just don't see how they score. Your two highest volume guys are two are the least efficient guys in the league in the halfcourt. Everyone else will struggle to create looks. Defensively its not much better. Poole can get his 25+ ppg, Kuzma 20+ & Kispert get 15 a night and it won't make a difference. Tyus & JP will be chopped liver defensively and Gaff stopped defending when Russ left.

[FAH1223]

Wiz are absoutely built to tank and tank forseeable future. Its full blown delusion to think the roster could do anything else but lose and lose badly.

I just don't see how they score. Your two highest volume guys are two are the least efficient guys in the league in the halfcourt. Everyone else will struggle to create looks. Defensively its not much better. Poole can get his 25+ ppg, Kuzma 20+ & Kispert get 15 a night and it won't make a difference. Tyus & JP will be chopped liver defensively and Gaff stopped defending when Russ left.

Yup. Tell all the Wizards podcasters and the Wiz Reddit.

I take the over on the Vegas wins of 24.5.

27-55 easily.

[nate33]

Wiz are absoutely built to tank and tank forseeable future. Its full blown delusion to think the roster could do anything else but lose and lose badly.

I just don't see how they score. Your two highest volume guys are two are the least efficient guys in the league in the halfcourt. Everyone else will struggle to create looks. Defensively its not much better. Poole can get his 25+ ppg, Kuzma 20+ & Kispert get 15 a night and it won't make a difference. Tyus & JP will be chopped liver defensively and Gaff stopped defending when Russ left.

What do you mean by "lose and lose badly"? Are you talking about 30 wins? 25 wins? 18 wins?

Ultimately, I think Poole + Jones are roughly equal to Beal + Morris (and Poole should play more games so this might actually be a small net upgrade). So the real change is Porzingis for Muscala, which is a massive downgrade - maybe 6 or 7 wins.

The team last year won 35 games but had the on/off differential of a 37 win team. So this team could theoretically be a 30-win team. However, I think they will commit to tanking earlier and lose a few extra games in February and March, so call it 28 wins. Also, I think the East got better so knock off 2 more wins. So I'm thinking something like 26 wins. Whether or not you call that a team that will "lose and lose badly" is semantics. They won't be good, but I don't think they will be horrific like Detroit last year or Houston the year before.

[payitforward]

...OKC is going to have to make tough subtractions. Not enough roster spots.

Absolutely; I wrote about this in the 2-way players thread earlier this evening..

If I read https://www.spotrac.com/nba/oklahoma-city-thunder/cap/ correctly, they have 21 players under contract.
1 of them is their #50 pick this year, Keyontae Johnson, who's on a 2 way deal.

That leaves 20 guys, of whom 18 have guaranteed regular-roster contracts. Obviously, something's got to give.

The two who are not guaranteed are Aaron Wiggins & Isaiah Joe. Those two guys combined for over 2600 minutes last year, & they were both extremely productive! Really terrific.

But... OKC has 8 guards with guaranteed deals; it's hard to see how they would be able to keep either Joe or Wiggins.
They are both 24: I would *love* to have either or both of them!

Even if they deal both of them, the Thunder still have another 18 guys with guaranteed regular-roster deals, including 5 point guards (one of whom, Vasilije Micic, they signed to a 3-year deal only a week ago!).

You'd have to think that TyTy Washington will be the odd man out. He's too is a guy who'd be interesting for us. He had an awful rookie year for Houston, an awful team, but he only played 434 minutes. Certainly not a prospect I'd be counting out.

Now, let's suppose they move all 3 of the guys I've mentioned so far -- Wiggins, Joe, & Washington.
They will still be left with 17 guaranteed players & therefore need to get rid of 2 of them.

The most obvious candidates would be Bertans & Tre Mann, neither of whom hold any interest for us. The one we'd be most interested in, Usman Garuba, would not be likely to be available.

Obviously, we have our own tight roster problems. Yet, I cannot see how any other team in the league is as well positioned as we are to profit from the moves OKC will be forced to make. That's a one-time opportunity. I hope we are able to take advantage of it.

The players who are least likely to have a role in our future, simply because of their ages, are Wright, Gallinari, Muscala & Gill. Shamet & Cooks likely fit the bill as well.

[payitforward]

Continuing the above train of thought -- "fantasy" might be a better word! -- suppose we were able, somehow, to add Wiggins, Joe & TyTy. How would we manage our roster? After all, we already have 16 guaranteed contracts!

I imagine we would be able to trade Delon Wright for draft capital. In that case, even if we were forced simply to cut Shamet, Gallinari, & either Cooks or Gill, our overall salary load this year would go down by @$2m.

Does this make sense to anyone but me?

[nate33]

Continuing the above train of thought -- "fantasy" might be a better word! -- suppose we were able, somehow, to add Wiggins, Joe & TyTy. How would we manage our roster? After all, we already have 16 guaranteed contracts!

I imagine we would be able to trade Delon Wright for draft capital. In that case, even if we were forced simply to cut Shamet, Gallinari, & either Cooks or Gill, our overall salary load this year would go down by @$2m.

Does this make sense to anyone but me?

We have 16 guys on the regular roster under contract at the moment:

Poole
Kuzma
Jones
Gafford
Shamet
Wright
Gallinari
Coulibaly
Avdija
Davis
Kispert
Muscala
Baldwin
Gill
Cooks
Rollins

I think they will encourage Gill to go back overseas. That gets us down to 15.

There was talk earlier about buying out Gallinari. He is at the stage of his career where he surely doesn't want to play on a bottom feeder, so we will probably pay it forward and accommodate him if possible. We will first see if we can trade him. If not, expect a buyout of his $6.8M contract where we give him $3.7M and then another team signs him for a vet minimum contract (worth $2.9M for a 10-year-vet). That frees up one roster spot.

The tricky part is what happens with Shamet and Wright. They could conceivably have trade value midseason, even if the market for them at the moment is weak. I don't think we would buy either guy out now if there's a belief they could be worth a 2RP later on. So expect them to be on the roster if they aren't traded this summer. I'm assuming we are scouring the league looking to trade one of those guys for a useful big - preferably one young enough to have upside. Either that, or we are looking to trade them for a 2RP and filler contract (who we will probably cut).

Finally, if there really is a guy on waivers we want badly, we could just eat Cooks' salary, cut him and free up a roster spot.

[payitforward]

Thanks, nate, for the thoughtful reply.

Given that Wright, Shamet, Gallinari & Muscala have no long-term role in our re-development, it seems unlikely that any of them will be on the team a year from now -- not inconceivable, of course, but pretty unlikely. Muscala might still be here if we for some reason we are unable to add a younger big in the coming year. Yet, keep in mind that he is already 32.

A guy who is likely to be gone in a year will be gone sooner if a notable opportunity arises to add someone more desirable -- i.e., in our case, a talented young player with a chance to be part of the new version of the Washington Wizards. Thus, assuming the appropriate opportunities arise, it would be no surprise if at least two of those four vets were gone by the beginning of the season. Especially given the fact that of the 4, only Wright is likely to contribute to our being a better team this year (if that matters).

I cannot see how OKC's current roster glut fails to present at least some opportunity, in which case we would certainly seem to be very well positioned to take advantage of it -- given 1) Dawkins' history & relationship with Presti & the Thunder FO & 2) the fact that we are in the Eastern Conference (where a Western Conference team is likely to prefer to send a young player with potential -- so as not to see the guy again any more often than necessary!).

Edit: in any case, that's what I'm hoping!

[nate33]

I cannot see how OKC's current roster glut fails to present at least some opportunity, in which case we would certainly seem to be very well positioned to take advantage of it -- given 1) Dawkins' history & relationship with Presti & the Thunder FO & 2) the fact that we are in the Eastern Conference (where a Western Conference team is likely to prefer to send a young player with potential -- so as not to see the guy again any more often than necessary!).

Edit: in any case, that's what I'm hoping!

I doubt OKC will be able to pull off a trade. Everyone in the league knows they can't keep all those guys and some guys will be cut. Why give up value for them?

This is probably a good time to go over the waivers process:

When the OKC player is cut, he is "on waivers" for 48 hours. During that time, if a team claims him, they also take over his existing contract, relieving OKC of all salary obligations. (The claiming team must have a means of paying him - either cap room, the vet minimum exception, or a trade exception; the MLE doesn't count.) If multiple teams want to claim him, then the team with the worst record gets him.

If nobody claims him while on waivers, he clears waivers and becomes a free agent (and OKC is stuck paying any portion of the salary that was guaranteed). If a player is signed after clearing waivers, OKC then OKC gets to "offset" what they still owe the player by a fraction of the amount the new contract is worth, based on a calculation. (For the purposes of the guys involved and their current contracts, the money saved by OKC by these offsets will be negligible.)

So Washington is in pretty good shape with this waivers process. We have plenty of TPE's to pay these guys, and we rank pretty high in the waivers order as the team with the 8th worst record.

[payitforward]

Cool, nate, & thanks.

I'm postulating (with absolutely no basis! ) a "special" relationship w/ OKC, which would be particularly actionable when it also presents OKC with some kind of benefit.

Thus imagine, they just don't have room for Joe & just about to waive him, while we'd like to have him. We might trade Anthony Gill for Joe, whereupon they would proceed to waive Gill while we kept Joe. (Examples chosen b/c their salaries are literally identical).

The benefit to OKC would be twofold: a) We'd "owe them something" & b) they move a player, one who's productive but whom they can't keep, to an EC team rather than a WC team.

The benefit to us is we get a guy we want rather than hoping he passes unclaimed through the handful of teams below us in the standings.

For sure, I keep crawling further out on the branch & it's starting to sway a little bit under the weight of this fantasy of mine... . But, I don't doubt that deals of this kind happen from time to time....

Is this one going to happen? Gee... I just made it up! I'd say it's a long shot, wouldn't you?
But, it would be great if it did!

[DCZards]

I suspect the Zards FO is trying to identify a young big to backup Gaff. (Jay Huff). There's a big hole there. Don't know if Garuba becomes available but he'd be a great get.

The other guy that interests me with OKC is Tre Mann. He's two years younger than Joe and Wiggins and I believe he has more upside than both of them.

[nate33]

I suspect the Zards FO is trying to identify a young big to backup Gaff. (Jay Huff). There's a big hole there. Don't know if Garuba becomes available but he'd be a great get.

The other guy that interests me with OKC is Tre Mann. He's two years younger than Joe and Wiggins and I believe he has more upside than both of them.

Yeah, I'd bet they definitely have their eye on Garuba. PIF's idea makes some sense too. Maybe we trade them Cooks plus a little cash in exchange for Garuba. Then they cut Cooks, ultimately making a little bit of cash in the transaction.

[NatP4]

I’d be shocked if OKC let Isaiah Joe go. He was one of the best young players in the league and played 1400 minutes last year.

SGA and Holmgren are the only more valuable pieces than Joe on the roster.

[NatP4]

Would forsure offer a 2nd round pick for Garuba.