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Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition

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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#421 » by younggunsmn » Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:29 am

TimberKat wrote:I posted my numbers and is differ by a mil or two. I believe you compounded Towns salary but didn't compound cap raise. Doesn't matter, a vet max is 30% and supermax is 35%. He will be in the middle. I don't mind paid him Max/Supermax. Just like you don't mind paid 30M to Jaden. I believe Towns will have a good season next year and worth the money. It's opinion and not hard fact we must trade him or Gobert


Update on this, I compounded the cap raises, but I also compounded KAT's year to year raises.
So I was partially wrong on this, thanks for raising the question, it made me dig a little deeper.

so KAT's actual % of cap with better accuracy, assuming cap rises 10% each year:

2024/25 - 35%
2025/26 - 34.36% (35 X (1.08/1.10)
2026/27 - 33.55% (1.16/1.21)
2027/28 - 32.6% (1.24/1.331)
2028/29 - 31.56%(1.32/1.4641)

For what its worth, I like KAT on that deal better than Jaylen Brown, as long as he stays healthy and plays more like his pre-2023 self.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#422 » by TimberKat » Sun Jul 30, 2023 2:47 am

Alex Hoegler reported that Bleacher Report’s Zach Buckley proposed a blockbuster trade idea that has the Timberwolves sending Towns to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington and 2026 and 2028 first-round picks.

James Piercey on NBAanalyst.net proposed Towns to OKC with Minnesota Timberwolves Receive: F Davis Bertans, G/F Luguentz Dort, 2024 First-Round Pick (UTA via OKC), 2025 First-Round Pick (MIA via OKC), 2026 First-Round Pick (LAC via UTA), 2027 First-Round Pick (OKC)

Do those guys post msg here too or they just copy what's said on this board and turn them into an articles? Already discussed why I hate it and doesn't make sense for Wolves, so won't repeat again.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#423 » by shrink » Sun Jul 30, 2023 3:26 am

Towns trade ideas get views, and views make money.

Neither of these guys have sources. Their personal trade ideas, with no insight into the Wolves, have less likelihood than even something we’d make here.

Btw, four days ago Buckley also just wrote an article saying Towns was the fifth worst contract in the NBA. How consistent is that with this article, where a Towns trade nets two unprotected 1sts? He’s just throwing pasta on the ceiling, trying to get something to stick. I wish that Ben Beecken at Locked On Wolves wouldn’t use Bleacher Report garbage as a source for his podcasts.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#424 » by shrink » Mon Jul 31, 2023 6:04 am

I don’t think Towns will be traded this summer, but just to keep the thread thriving, I’ll post this article from Fansided last month

https://hoopshabit.com/2023/06/12/nba-trades-7-towns-trades-timberwolves/

Karl-Anthony Towns for:

1. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, 2 1sts
2. RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, 2 1sts
3. Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, 2 protected 1sts
4. DeJounte Murray, John Collins, 2 lottery protected 1sts (plus SloMo)
5. Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson
6. Pascal Siakim
7. Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson

I don’t think these deals are realistic, and vary wildly on value, despite coming from the same author.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#425 » by minimus » Mon Jul 31, 2023 1:51 pm

shrink wrote:I don’t think Towns will be traded this summer, but just to keep the thread thriving, I’ll post this article from Fansided last month

https://hoopshabit.com/2023/06/12/nba-trades-7-towns-trades-timberwolves/

Karl-Anthony Towns for:

1. Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, 2 1sts
2. RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, 2 1sts
3. Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, 2 protected 1sts
4. DeJounte Murray, John Collins, 2 lottery protected 1sts (plus SloMo)
5. Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson
6. Pascal Siakim
7. Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson

I don’t think these deals are realistic, and vary wildly on value, despite coming from the same author.


SAS have three FRPs in 2024 (TOR, CHA, own) and three FRPs in 2025 (CHI, ATL, own). I would not touch Keldon Johnson contract, but I would love to get Devin Vassell because I think he fits well in MIN as two-way shooter with some playmaking ability. His addition gives us depth on wings, bench depth, athleticism, adds defensive versatility. IMO we are still lacking elite shooting talent at wings. I am re-watching last season games when Towns returned from injury, and I think that in offense we kind of overloaded at top of the key and really thin at wings. Let me explain. Gobert, Towns, Reid, Anderson all prefer to initiate offense from top of the key. Towns rarely attacked from wings, more often reversed the ball to the top of the key or above the break. But at some point guys who can shoot from corners really benefited from rim gravity of Gobert, Prince, MCD, Conley posted some excellent numbers. But on other hand, guys like Nowell, McLaughlin were exposed when they could not hit open threes. Adding Vassell would balance whole roster construction.

Towns, Moore, McLaughlin for Vassell, Bullock, McDermott, Collins and three top-5 protected FRPs

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Anderson/Collins/Miller + Minott
MCD/Vassell/Bullock + McDermott
Edwards/NAW/Brown
Conley/Milton/NAW



Vassell is that protypical shooting wing who can benefit from Gobert presence. Guys such as Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce ONeal made their career playing next to Gobert. Plus he has some potential as passer and high level defender.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#426 » by minimus » Tue Aug 1, 2023 12:21 pm

According to Athletic, New Orleans want to improve С position

https://theathletic.com/4725315/2023/07/27/pelicans-zion-williamson-brandon-ingram-offseason

NOP in: Towns
NOP out: Valanciunas, Murphy III, Kira Lewis Jr., Nance Jr, unprotected 2024 FRP

Why for NOP: assemble very unique frontcourt around Towns-Zion-Ingram

CHA in: Valanciunas, Nance Jr, McLaughlin, Moore
CHA out: Hayward

Why for CHA: get some assets for expiring Hayward

MIN in: Hayward, Murphy, Kira Lewis Jr., unprotected 2024 FRP
MIN out: Towns, McLaughlin, Moore

Why for MIN: get Murphy III who is an elite shooter, big wing, get huge expiring contract and two late FRPs

Murphy is that type of big wing who fits well next to Gobert, Anderson, Edwards





Gobert/Reid/Garza
Anderson/Murphy/Miller
MCD/Brown/Minott
Edwards/NAW/Brown
Conley/Milton/Lewis Jr

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/04/learning-to-fly-how-trey-murphy-iiis-rise-has-helped-save-the-pelicans-season/
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#427 » by frankenwolf » Tue Aug 1, 2023 1:03 pm

minimus wrote:According to Athletic, New Orleans want to improve С position

https://theathletic.com/4725315/2023/07/27/pelicans-zion-williamson-brandon-ingram-offseason

NOP in: Towns, McLaughlin, Moore
NOP out: Valanciunas, Murphy III, Kira Lewis Jr., Nance Jr, unprotected 2024 FRP

Why for NOP: assemble very unique frontcourt around Towns-Zion-Ingram

CHA in: Valanciunas, Nance Jr, McLaughlin, Moore
CHA out: Hayward

Why for CHA: get some assets for expiring Hayward

MIN in: Hayward, Murphy, Kira Lewis Jr., unprotected 2024 FRP
MIN out: Towns, McLaughlin, Moore

Why for MIN: get Murphy III who is an elite shooter, big wing, get huge expiring contract and two late FRPs

Murphy is that type of big wing who fits well next to Gobert, Anderson, Edwards

Gobert/Reid/Garza
Anderson/Murphy/Miller
MCD/Brown/Minott
Edwards/NAW/Brown
Conley/Milton/Lewis Jr

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2023/04/learning-to-fly-how-trey-murphy-iiis-rise-has-helped-save-the-pelicans-season/


No, no, no.

Also, you have McLaughlin and Moore going to both NO & CHA.

Spoiler:
I have no particular reason except I don't like KAT trades and have no desire to help a team in the west get better
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#428 » by Domejandro » Tue Aug 1, 2023 1:21 pm

That trade offer is missing roughly three unprotected picks.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#429 » by minimus » Tue Aug 1, 2023 1:32 pm

Domejandro wrote:That trade offer is missing roughly three unprotected picks.


How do you value Trey Murphy III on rookie contract?
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#430 » by Colbinii » Tue Aug 1, 2023 1:40 pm

minimus wrote:
Domejandro wrote:That trade offer is missing roughly three unprotected picks.


How do you value Trey Murphy III on rookie contract?


It makes more sense for a return of Dyson Daniels, LAL 2024/2025 1st and then better of 2027 MIL/NOP 1st with salary filler [McCollum?] or a 3rd team roped it.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#431 » by minimus » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:00 pm

frankenwolf wrote:Also, you have McLaughlin and Moore going to both NO & CHA.

Thank you, fixed

frankenwolf wrote:I have no particular reason except I don't like KAT trades and have no desire to help a team in the west get better

In a nutshell I want to trade Towns ONLY if we get a wing who can make threes: Devin Vassell and Troy Murphy are exactly such type of shooters. And yeah, I'd prefer trading with team in East Conference. If it is possible

Colbinii wrote:It makes more sense for a return of Dyson Daniels, LAL 2024/2025 1st and then better of 2027 MIL/NOP 1st with salary filler (McCollum?) or a 3rd team roped it

I have been re-watching last games from last season when Towns returned from injury. And I am getting more convinced that we don't have enough quality wings/shooters:

- our perimeter shooting was awful when Prince was out
- both MCD and Prince are not advanced scorers
- Towns is not good as a wing, but he is an excellent five-out big. He passed out many shots when he was on wings, and he looked great when he shoots from above the break or from top of the key
- Towns great LAL game was when Reid was out with injury, because Towns played some minutes against bench
- some issues inherited from twin towers lineups remain even with healthy Towns and better chemistry. For instance, transition defense, lack of defensive versality
- Gobert needs shooters on the wings, Anderson needs shooters on the wings, Edwards needs shooters on the wings

I believe that there is no easy solution for our PG situation. Right now I dont want to trade for any temporary workarounds such as McCollum. Re-signing Conley for one more year might fill immediate need. Other option is to use Anderson as backup PG or as point forward to share duties with combo guard such as NAW. Right now, I think getting an elite shooter is a better investment.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#432 » by Colbinii » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:05 pm

minimus wrote:
frankenwolf wrote:Also, you have McLaughlin and Moore going to both NO & CHA.

Thank you, fixed

frankenwolf wrote:I have no particular reason except I don't like KAT trades and have no desire to help a team in the west get better

In a nutshell I want to trade Towns ONLY if we get a wing who can make threes: Devin Vassell and Troy Murphy are exactly such type of shooters. And yeah, I'd prefer trading with team in East Conference. If it is possible

Colbinii wrote:It makes more sense for a return of Dyson Daniels, LAL 2024/2025 1st and then better of 2027 MIL/NOP 1st with salary filler (McCollum?) or a 3rd team roped it

I have been re-watching last games from last season when Towns returned from injury. And I am getting more convinced that we don't have enough quality wings/shooters:

- our perimeter shooting was awful when Prince was out
- both MCD and Prince are not advanced scorers
- Towns is not good as a wing, but he is an excellent five-out big. He passed out many shots when he was on wings, and he looked great when he shoots from above the break or from top of the key
- Towns great LAL game was when Reid was out with injury, because Towns played some minutes against bench
- some issues inherited from twin towers lineups remain even with healthy Towns and better chemistry. For instance, transition defense, lack of defensive versality
- Gobert needs shooters on the wings, Anderson needs shooters on the wings, Edwards needs shooters on the wings

I believe that there is no easy solution for our PG situation. Right now I dont want to trade for any temporary workarounds such as McCollum. Re-signing Conley for one more year might fill immediate need. Other option is to use Anderson as backup PG or as point forward to share duties with combo guard such as NAW. Right now, I think getting an elite shooter is a better investment.



NOP isn't moving Trey Murphy III for Towns. They value Murphy like we value McDaniels--maybe even more and rightfully so.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#433 » by minimus » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:11 pm

Colbinii wrote:NOP isn't moving Trey Murphy III for Towns. They value Murphy like we value McDaniels--maybe even more and rightfully so.


That's correct. Murphy III has been last year revelation. But they have three guys on wings Ingram, Murphy III, Herb Jones and little depth at C. Also Towns and healthy Zion is a good combo. So I think that getting Towns for Murphy III and FRP is worth the risk.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#434 » by Colbinii » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:12 pm

minimus wrote:
Colbinii wrote:NOP isn't moving Trey Murphy III for Towns. They value Murphy like we value McDaniels--maybe even more and rightfully so.


That's correct. Murphy III has been last year revelation. But they have three guys on wings Ingram, Murphy III, Herb Jones and little depth at C. Also Towns and healthy Zion is a good combo. So I think that getting Towns for Murphy III and FRP is worth the risk.


Nah, it isn't worth the risk. Then NOP is in the same situation Minnesota is with "Not enough shooting wings".

The best possible return for Towns isn't a Murphy tier player, its a Daniels tier prospect + Picks. Lower your expectations.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#435 » by minimus » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:32 pm

Colbinii wrote:
minimus wrote:
Colbinii wrote:NOP isn't moving Trey Murphy III for Towns. They value Murphy like we value McDaniels--maybe even more and rightfully so.


That's correct. Murphy III has been last year revelation. But they have three guys on wings Ingram, Murphy III, Herb Jones and little depth at C. Also Towns and healthy Zion is a good combo. So I think that getting Towns for Murphy III and FRP is worth the risk.


Nah, it isn't worth the risk. Then NOP is in the same situation Minnesota is with "Not enough shooting wings".

The best possible return for Towns isn't a Murphy tier player, its a Daniels tier prospect + Picks. Lower your expectations.


You might be right, because I have not been following Daniels. Does he have Caruso potential as defender? I remember I was not impressed with his offense and playmaking.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#436 » by Colbinii » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:41 pm

minimus wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
minimus wrote:
That's correct. Murphy III has been last year revelation. But they have three guys on wings Ingram, Murphy III, Herb Jones and little depth at C. Also Towns and healthy Zion is a good combo. So I think that getting Towns for Murphy III and FRP is worth the risk.


Nah, it isn't worth the risk. Then NOP is in the same situation Minnesota is with "Not enough shooting wings".

The best possible return for Towns isn't a Murphy tier player, its a Daniels tier prospect + Picks. Lower your expectations.


You might be right, because I have not been following Daniels. Does he have Caruso potential as defender? I remember I was not impressed with his offense and playmaking.


Yeah, Daniels still has a lot of the potential which led him to being picked #8 overall in 2022. At 6' 8", he has incredible size for a PG prospect and this oozes out through the defensive side of the ball. The sky is the limit for him on that end of the court.

Offensively, he had a terrific Assist/Turnover Rate and has a solid feel/understand of the game but needs to develop his shot and on-ball skill-set further.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#437 » by Klomp » Tue Aug 1, 2023 2:49 pm

Colbinii wrote:Yeah, Daniels still has a lot of the potential which led him to being picked #8 overall in 2022. At 6' 8", he has incredible size for a PG prospect and this oozes out through the defensive side of the ball. The sky is the limit for him on that end of the court.

Offensively, he had a terrific Assist/Turnover Rate and has a solid feel/understand of the game but needs to develop his shot and on-ball skill-set further.

Well said. I'd equate it to a longer, younger NAW with more potential...
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#438 » by shrink » Tue Aug 1, 2023 3:50 pm

minimus wrote:I have been re-watching last games from last season when Towns returned from injury. And I am getting more convinced that we don't have enough quality wings/shooters.

Personally, I don’t want to use Towns’ trade value to improve out bench. We are unlikely to start any wing over Ant or McDaniels, and a high quality player who would start for almost any other team is not going to be happy coming off the bench. Moreover, part of the reason that a Towns trade might be considered is having too much money locked into the same position with Gobert, Towns and now Naz. Trading Towns for a great wing would mean we’d need to match a big offer from a team that starts him.

I’m actually fairly comfortable having Kyle Anderson come off the bench and close games. I can see him getting lots of bench minutes when Conley is off the floor, and he can adapt his role to what we need. We also may not be able to afford him next season. We haven’t seen good numbers yet from Naz as a PF, let alone as a starting PF. I am not in favor of a Towns trade, but I would prefer one that brought in a starter at PF or PG, rather than expensive players we’d need to bring off the bench.

As for wing help, Ant, McDaniels and NAW (and now Troy Brown, Shake Milton) are all young, and should improve as wings. A full season of Towns himself also improves our shooting.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#439 » by thinktank » Tue Aug 1, 2023 6:22 pm

So much energy put into trading Towns before we even let them play the first half of the season. I really don’t understand it.
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Re: Trade Talk (Part Thirteen): 2023 Offseason Edition 

Post#440 » by minimus » Tue Aug 1, 2023 6:26 pm

shrink wrote:
minimus wrote:I have been re-watching last games from last season when Towns returned from injury. And I am getting more convinced that we don't have enough quality wings/shooters.

Personally, I don’t want to use Towns’ trade value to improve out bench. We are unlikely to start any wing over Ant or McDaniels, and a high quality player who would start for almost any other team is not going to be happy coming off the bench. Moreover, part of the reason that a Towns trade might be considered is having too much money locked into the same position with Gobert, Towns and now Naz. Trading Towns for a great wing would mean we’d need to match a big offer from a team that starts him.

I’m actually fairly comfortable having Kyle Anderson come off the bench and close games. I can see him getting lots of bench minutes when Conley is off the floor, and he can adapt his role to what we need. We also may not be able to afford him next season. We haven’t seen good numbers yet from Naz as a PF, let alone as a starting PF. I am not in favor of a Towns trade, but I would prefer one that brought in a starter at PF or PG, rather than expensive players we’d need to bring off the bench.

As for wing help, Ant, McDaniels and NAW (and now Troy Brown, Shake Milton) are all young, and should improve as wings. A full season of Towns himself also improves our shooting.


Yes, ideally any Towns trade should bring back a starting PF or PG. However, I think salary wise we cannot afford having at PF or PG any star level player, in other words our roster is already set with two max player contract (Edwards and Gobert), one below max player (McDaniels), two MLE type players (Reid and Anderson). The rest will be filled with role players.

You think about it positionally: C-PF-SF-SG-PG, my idea is to think about players as functions, roles: a big, shooter, PoA defender, versatile defender, ballhandlers/decision maker, slasher, bench scorer etc. IMO we already all types of roles:

Bigs - Gobert, Towns
PoA defender - MCD, NAW
ISO defender - MCD, Edwards, NAW
Versatile defender - MCD, Anderson
Decision makers - Conley, Anderson
Slasher - Edwards
Corner three point shooters - Conley, MCD, Brown
Ballhandlers - Conley, Milton, NAW
Bench scorers - Reid, Milton
Dynamic three point shooters - Conley, Brown

Towns next to Gobert should shoot much more three pointers from wings. However, it is not clear whether he can adapt his game one more time. Adding one more dynamic shooter would make whole roster more versatile, more stable.

If we trade Towns, then our PF must be a good corner three shooter. Because he will play next to Gobert, I think it is realistic to find such guy, for instance DFS, but our biggest problem with current roster is lack of decision making, passing. If we put limited offensive PF in starting lineup it might lead to stagnant offense. However, I really like our combination of combo forwards Anderson-MCD-Miller-Minott-Brown, it is good mix of athleticism, skills and potential. I really like this mix except one thing - shooting. Getting someone like Vassell or Murphy gives us:

1) a highly compatible, versatile player both in offense and defense
2) depth at wings
3) young player on rookie contract who won't complain about starting role

Towns trade is definitely a part of soft rebuild, that is already going in MIN, we traded DLo. A two-way player like Murphy would be a step in right direction, but whole roster would be still incomplete without starting PG. I don't see right now a better PG for us than Conley for many reasons. But I really would love to use his time here to mentor his future replacement. Re-sign Conley for one more year, and by the time of Conley retirement we might have a solution in house.

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